Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2:15AM EDT (0615 UTC) Friday August 21 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of America (Gulf of Mexico), Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0437 UTC.

Tropical Waves
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W, south of 21N, moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderated isolated strong convection is present from 07N to 14N and between 28W and 40W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 46W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 09N to 14N and between 40W and 50W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 70W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is depicted in association with this wave.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 85.5W, south of 20N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Associated convection is limited over Central America, while area Caribbean waters are rain free.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N17W and continues southwestward to 12N25W and to 11N50W. The ITCZ extends from 11N50W to 10N60W. Outside of convection associated with tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is occurring from 02N to 07N and east of 26W.

...Discussion: Gulf Of America (Gulf Of Mexico)
A deep layered upper level low over N Florida extends into the far NW Caribbean and is supporting scattered moderate convection across the eastern Gulf. At the surface, 1017 mb high pressure centered near 25N89W dominates the basin with light to gentle anticyclonic winds, except for fresh to strong NE winds west of the Yucatan Peninsula due the pressure gradient associated with a trough. Seas are generally 3 ft or less.

For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure centered over the central Gulf will prevail over the basin through early next week. A weak pressure pattern will support mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight to locally moderate seas across much of the basin. A surface trough will generate fresh to locally strong winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings. These winds will spread westward away from the peninsula at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf.

...Discussion: Caribbean Sea
See Tropical Waves section above for information on convection across the basin.

The pressure gradient between weak high pressure centered S of Bermuda and low pressure over northern Colombia is supporting fresh to strong trades over the south- central basin between 69W and 75W, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere, except gentle over the NW basin. Seas are moderate, except 7 to 9 ft in the south-central portion, and slight in the NW. Saharan Air across most of the basin is aiding in limiting convection.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient associated to high pressure north of the Caribbean will lead to fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through much of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail over the north- central and eastern Caribbean through the weekend and into early next week. A tropical wave will move across the tropical Atlantic and into the far eastern Caribbean early next week enhancing the trade wind flow across those waters. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are expected.

...Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
See Tropical Waves section for information on convection in deep tropics.

A trough enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N51W and continues southwestward to 27N66W. A cluster of moderate isolated strong convection is noted N of 26N between 53W and 58W, while isolated showers are noted along the trough axis. Isolated moderate convection is also depicted north of the Bahamas. The rest of the basin remains under the influence of subtropical ridging, supporting moderate or weaker winds and seas, except for a belt of moderate to fresh trades between 12N and 22N, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Fresh to locally strong N to NE wind prevail across the northeastern waters from the Canary Islands southward to 18N and E of 22W. Seas there are 5 to 8 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will support mostly light to gentle winds over most of the waters north of 23N going into early next week. Moderate to fresh trades are expected south of about 23N, especially off northern Hispaniola through the period. These trades may pulse to fresh to strong speeds off northern Hispaniola at night through most of the forecast period. Meanwhile, the northern portion of tropical wave is expected to move through the eastern portion of the area early next week enhancing the trades some.

Forecaster: Keren Rosado-Vazquez, National Hurricane Center