Cape Shoalwater WA to Cape Lookout OR between 60 and 150 NM Offshore Forecast
| Tonight...N To Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw 10 To 15 Kt Early, Then, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. |
| Wed...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. |
| Wed Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. |
| Thu...Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. |
| Thu Night...W To Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. |
| Fri...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft. |
| Fri Night...N To Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft. |
| Sat...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. |
| Sat Night...N Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. |
| Sun...N Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 8 To 9 Ft. |
| Sun Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 7 To 10 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 218pm PDT Tuesday July 14 2026 Synopsis A bit more of a dynamic weather pattern over the next several days as high pressure gives way to a longwave trough over the area. Rain chances increase for Wednesday night into Thursday with a slight chance (10-20%) for thunderstorms into Thursday morning. Rain accumulation will generally be orographically driven. Drying occurs starting Friday through the weekend as temperatures heat up once again. Moderate HeatRisk forecast for urban areas on Sunday and Monday. .SHORT TERM...Now through Thursday Night...High pressure remains over the area through Wednesday morning which is keeping conditions generally clear, dry and warm. Some bleed over monsoonal moisture lingers to the east of the Cascades which may spill over the Cascade Crest this afternoon if there is enough lift and wind shear aloft. However, based on the current set up, chances for thunder today is less than 5%. That trend will not hold though as we move into Wednesday as a broad closed low aloft drops down from the Gulf of Alaska. This low is wrapped in relatively cooler air (though not cold by any means), and will begin to initiate instability. This low is fairly well realized in ensemble models but at the surface there is less support. However, that does not totally eliminate the instability in the region. On Wednesday night into Thursday, we will see an addition of moisture to the region with a weak frontal band moving over the Pacific Northwest. The upper level low will sit right over the Oregon coast which will bring in wrap around moisture from east of the Cascades. We are looking for widespread rain with with around a 40-50% chance of measurable rain west of the Cascade foothills, and a 75% chance over the Cascades. These chances increase into Thursday afternoon where they rise to around 75-80% chance of 0.01 inch from Salem northward. In addition to the showers, CAPE will be heavily increased over the Cascades, and with slightly cooler air aloft and the added moisture, we cannot rule out thunderstorms over the Cascades. These storms are looking to be on the wetter side with precipitable water around 90% of normal. There continues to be a large model spread for precipitation amounts overall though with a difference in the 25th-75th percentile (most likely range) having a spread of 0.3-0.5 inch along the coast and 0.25-0.40 inch inland for 24-hr Quantitative Precipitation Forecast ending Thursday afternoon and evening. -27 Long Term Friday through Tuesday...Conditions will begin to settle on Friday, though expect temperatures to remain seasonable or just slightly above normal. Once challenge on Friday is what ends up happening with the low aloft. Some models suggest that the low will stay more northerly, while others want to keep it further south. The overall Grand Ensemble shows the low center tracking p and over Vancouver Island on Friday which will allow for drier and warmer air to move in. This will set the stage for the weekend as conditions become increasingly hotter and drier. In this pattern, marine stratus is likely, especially along the coast though it could transition down the Columbia River into the interior lowlands. If cloud cover becomes pervasive, it will have an impact on high temperatures and minimum humidity. As we move into the weekend, high pressure builds once again which will cause temperatures to rise. This ridge amplifies through Monday which will bring even warmer temperatures. Looking at Moderate HeatRisk for urban areas around the greater Portland-Vancouver metro area, the Columbia River Gorge, and the Upper Hood River Valley on both Sunday and Monday. There is around a 10% chance of highs hitting 100 degrees or more on both Monday and Tuesday and that is mainly within the inland valleys. Note that one trend that has been observed is that the highest temperature forecasts have been pushed off one day at a time as models come in. Therefore, the exact dates may be a bit more up in the air as we near - especially as the ridge remains anchored in place. -27 Marine Benign conditions with a typical summertime pattern expected to persist through the week. Northerly winds 10-15 kt expected with intermittent afternoon gusts up to 20 kt each day. Seas 4-6 feet at 8-10 seconds. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 3AM to 9AM Wednesday morning for the Columbia River Bar for rough seas due to a very strong ebb current leading to seas of 6 to 7 ft. -42 NOAA Portland OR Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3am to 9am PDT Wednesday for PZZ210. |
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