Cape Shoalwater WA to Cape Lookout OR between 60 and 150 NM Offshore Forecast
| Today...S Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming S To Sw 20 To 30 Kt Early, Then, Becoming W 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 15 To 20 Ft. Chance Of Rain. |
| Tonight...W Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 13 To 17 Ft. |
| Sun...W Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming Variable Less Than 10 Kt. Seas 12 To 16 Ft. |
| Sun Night...E To Ne Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming Ne 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 11 To 15 Ft. |
| Mon...Ne Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming E To Se. Seas 10 To 12 Ft. |
| Mon Night...S Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 8 To 10 Ft. |
| Tue...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming S To Se 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 8 To 11 Ft. |
| Tue Night...Se Winds 25 To 35 Kt, Becoming S 30 To 40 Kt. Seas 10 To 17 Ft. |
| Wed...S Winds 20 To 30 Kt, Becoming Sw. Seas 12 To 18 Ft. |
| Wed Night...S To Sw Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 12 To 18 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion ...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 956pm PDT Fri Oct 31 2025 ...Updated aviation discussion... Synopsis A cold front will bring rain to the region this evening into Saturday, beginning along the northern Oregon and southern Washington coasts before spreading inland overnight. Southerly winds will increase this evening, with gusts generally between 20 and 25 mph across the lowlands. Drier weather follows on Sunday before another round of active weather returns early next week. .SHORT TERM...Now through Saturday Night... Mid and high clouds continue to thicken ahead of a frontal system approaching from the northwest. Rain will begin along the north Oregon and south Washington coasts between now (3 PM) and 5 PM, spreading inland toward the Portland/Vancouver metro by early to mid- evening (around 5 to 8 PM). Rain onset becomes more uncertain for the central and southern Willamette Valley as the stalling front pivots southeastward into the area. While rain is expected to begin around 8 to 11pm for Salem, it is possible that the frontal band will weaken and stall, resulting in very light rain for Salem and southward. Overall for this system, expect precipitation to start light, then gradually increase in intensity through the night. The approaching cold front will slow somewhat as it nears the coast this evening, becoming vertically stacked before progressing eastward overnight. An embedded shortwave will help accelerate the front inland late tonight into Saturday morning. Rain will persist through much of Saturday, gradually tapering to showers by the afternoon/evening. For rainfall totals from now through Saturday, expect around 0.75 to 2.50 inches along the coast and Coast Range, 0.50 to 1.25 inches for the northern Willamette Valley, 0.25 to 0.75 inches for the southern and central valley, and 0.5 to 3.0 inches across the Cascades and foothills (locally higher on peaks). Heaviest totals are expected for the Willapa Hills, North Oregon Coast Range, South Washington Cascades and foothills due to the frontal orientation and timing. Southerly winds will increase this evening with inland gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range and up to 25 to 35 mph for the coast, Coast Range, and Cascades. Into Saturday morning and afternoon, expect inland gusts around 20 to 30 mph and up to 30 to 40 mph for the coast, Coast Range, and Cascades. Long Term Sunday through Thursday...Sunday will bring a break in the active pattern as weak upper ridging develops and conditions dry out. The respite will be short-lived, however, as rain may return as early as Monday afternoon. Model ensemble guidance shows good agreement through midweek, indicating a broad trough settling over the Pacific Northwest by Wednesday. This trough will be associated with an atmospheric river, expected to persist around 48–72 hours in duration. This atmospheric river will be relatively weak through most of the duration. To note, this atmospheric river will peak into moderate strength from Tuesday evening to Wednesday evening, resulting in integrated vapor transport around 500-700 kg/ms (therefore 24 hour duration as moderate strength). With prevailing southwesterly flow expected with this atmospheric river, orographic enhancement is expected to be modest, limiting heavy rain potential. While this system bears watching, current model guidance does not suggest rainfall rates high enough to raise flooding concerns for rivers or urban areas. Winds may increase again Wednesday into Thursday evenings, with a 10–20% chance of gusts exceeding 45 mph, though probabilities can change as ensembles come into closer agreement on the eventual track and depth of the offshore low. Thursday and onward, ensemble spread increases notably, suggesting growing uncertainty in timing and strength of any subsequent systems. ~12 Marine A cold front impinging on the coastal waters this afternoon will see continued southerly wind gusts hazardous to small craft, 25-35 kt, easing slightly as the front stalls briefly this evening. Intermittent gale-force gusts remain most likely north of Cape Falcon and across the Columbia River Bar this evening, although without enough coverage or persistence to merit Gale headlines. As a second system crosses the coastal waters early Saturday morning, gale-force gusts look to be more widespread inside of 30 NM, and especially inside of 10 NM including the Columbia River Bar, from 5 AM PDT through the early afternoon, 12-2pm PDT Saturday. A Gale Warning has therefore been hoisted across these areas throughout Saturday morning, while Small Craft Advisories remain in effect across the outer waters. As these systems pass over the waters, a long period westerly swell arriving from the west will see seas rapidly build from 8-12 ft this afternoon to 15-18 ft by sunrise on Saturday. While gales ease by Saturday afternoon, seas remain above 15 ft through Saturday afternoon, supporting Hazardous Seas Warnings remaining in effect through 8pm PDT Saturday evening across all coastal waters. While brief high pressure passes overhead, winds will ease through early next week, however seas may remain at or above 8-10 ft through much of the period. Looking ahead to the long-term forecast, chances for further gusty winds out of the south and attendant rough seas over 15 ft increase Wednesday into Thursday as another system tracks into the Northwest. -36 .BEACH HAZARDS...An increasing westerly swell of 16-20 ft at 16-17 seconds will bring a high threat of sneaker waves this weekend. Caution should be used when in or near the water. Always keep an eye on the waves, and be especially watchful of children and pets. Those participating in razor clam digs should exercise caution. Elevated swell heigheights may also bring a marginal high surf threat from 5am to 5pm Saturday. Destructive waves may wash over beaches, jetties, and other structures unexpectedly. People can be swept off rocks and jetties and drown while observing high surf. Higher than normal water run-up is expected on beaches and low-lying shoreline. Stay well back from the water's edge during this time, and be alert for exceptionally high waves. -10 NOAA Portland OR Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories OR...High Surf Advisory from 2am to 5pm PDT Saturday for ORZ101>103. WA...High Surf Advisory from 2am to 5pm PDT Saturday for WAZ201. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5am PDT Saturday for PZZ210. Gale Warning from 5am to 2pm PDT Saturday for PZZ210. Hazardous Seas Warning from 2pm to 8pm PDT Saturday for PZZ210- 251>253. Small Craft Advisory until 11pm PDT this evening for PZZ251>253. Gale Warning from 11pm this evening to 2pm PDT Saturday for PZZ251>253. Small Craft Advisory until 2am PDT Saturday for PZZ271>273. Hazardous Seas Warning from 2am to 8pm PDT Saturday for PZZ271>273. |
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