Cape Shoalwater WA to Cape Lookout OR between 60 and 150 NM Offshore Forecast
| Tonight...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. |
| Sat...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. |
| Sat Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. |
| Sun...Nw Winds Less Than 10 Kt, Becoming Variable. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. |
| Sun Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Mon...N To Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. |
| Mon Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. |
| Tue...N To Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. |
| Tue Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. |
| Wed...Variable Winds Less Than 5 Kt, Becoming W To Nw. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Wed Night...N To Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 914pm PDT Fri July 18 2025 Updated aviation discussion. Synopsis Strengthening onshore flow will bring continued cooling through the weekend with temperatures falling before normal to begin the next workweek. An upper low passing overhead Sunday night into Monday may bring the best chances for rain so far this month, although odds for accumulating precipitation remain fairly low. Forecast confidence decreases midweek, although a return to warmer temperatures is most likely. .SHORT TERM...Now through Sunday...Another upper-level shortwave passing over or just north of the region this afternoon and evening will usher in intensified onshore flow, continuing the cooling trend through the weekend. Mid-level temperatures around 15C at 850 hPa today will fall to 10-11C by Sunday afternoon, pushing surface temperatures below seasonal normals, with afternoon highs falling to the 60s along the coast and in terrain, and mid 70s to low 80s along the I-5/I-84 corridors. The stronger onshore push will also favor increased low cloud cover, especially along the coast and into Coast Range gaps, including up the Columbia River into the Portland/Vancouver metro. Coastal mist and fog are also most likely Sunday morning reaching into west-facing Coast Range valleys. West to northwest winds will also strengthen modestly, with gusts as high as 30-35 mph through the Columbia Gorge each afternoon. -Picard Long Term Sunday Night through Friday...By Sunday night into Monday, there is increasing consensus that a vigorous upper shortwave will dive southward over the Haida Gwaii and Vancouver Island, resulting in elongated upper troughing or even a cutoff low centered developing over the Pacific NW. While this wave may support light rain reaching into the region to start the workweek, chances remain fairly low, only 15-25% along the coast and in the Coast Range, and slightly lower in the Cascades and foothills. It's worth noting that an increased number of global ensemble members are showing accumulating rain as well as anomalously high values of precipitable water, generally 1-1.25" across the forecast area, which would be above the 90th climatological percentile of KSLE sounding observations. With light mean cloud-level winds, around 5 kt, slow-moving convective showers which could wring out a true wetting rain in some areas cannot be ruled out. Numerical guidance then diverges toward the middle of the week as the evolution of the trough or cutoff low remains somewhat low confidence. Many ensemble members are continuing to favor another cutoff upper low developing near Cape Mendocino while the mean flow to the north returns to a more zonal pattern. In this scenario, heigheights rising aloft and moderating mid-level temperatures would favor a warming trend at the surface, while southerly to southeasterly flow about the eastern flank of the upper low could generate convection over the Cascades. -Picard Marine While winds remain weak across the waters, high pressure will maintain northerly to northwesterly winds through next week, however winds will remain relatively weak and should stay under 10-15 kt. Seas should subside to 5 to 6 ft Friday evening and then stay at or below 5 ft through the upcoming week. There are no signs conditions will meet Small Craft Advisory criteria over the coastal waters at this time. -TK NOAA Portland OR Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. |
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