Cape Shoalwater WA to Cape Lookout OR between 60 and 150 NM Offshore Forecast
|Tonight...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Thu...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft.|
|Thu Night...N Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft.|
|Fri...N To Ne Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft.|
|Fri Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Ne. Seas 5 To 6 Ft.|
|Sat...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming E To Ne 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft.|
|Sat Night...N To Ne Winds Less Than 10 Kt, Becoming Variable. Seas 4 To 5 Ft.|
|Sun...W To Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Sun Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft.|
|Mon...N To Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft.|
|Mon Night...Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 7 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Portland OR
300pm PDT Wednesday April 14 2021
High pressure over the region will maintain clear skies and dry weather through the coming weekend. Daily high temperatures will gradually warm, with warmest days being Saturday and Sunday. Then, thermal trough will gradually shift eastward across region, with cooler weather and chance of showers to start next week.
Tonight through Friday night...Little change in the overall forecast as the synoptic pattern remains stagnant. With a thermally induced trough over the coastline spreading into the Coast Range and high pressure over the area, expecting clear skies and gradually warming temperatures through the week. Winds through the area have weakened slightly in the northern portions of the forecast area as they have turned more northerly. However, the central and southern Willamette Valley as well as the coast are still seeing gusts up to 30 mph. These conditions will persist through the afternoon before weakening overnight. A similar pattern in store each afternoon through Friday but weaker on Thursday.
This northeasterly flow will keep pushing the dry air over the area which is keeping relative humidity (RH) very low for this time of year. RH values around 20-25% are pretty widespread with even lower values in areas where it is windier and along the Cascades. With very little moisture in place and no reprieve in site, conditions will only become drier. The one difference between Thursday and Friday is that winds could be slightly higher.
With warming temperatures, several days of drying weather and breezy winds, there are increased fire weather concerns. By Friday, fuels will likely dry even more and may be prone to fire starts. Be sure to tune into local officials for burning guidance. -Muessle
Saturday through Tuesday
Models are still struggling with the spread of temperatures on Saturday and Sunday. While a warming trend is in store with high confidence, the exact values are still being ironed out. Similar to the last few days, the spread between maximum temperatures has varied greatly between solutions so once again treaded the middle ground. Saturday will be the warmest day of the weekend with temperatures expected to be near 80 degrees through inland areas. The coast too could see temperatures range from the mid 70s to near 80 degrees. The main challenge with the temperature forecast is understanding how the downsloping effect will impact where and when the highest temperatures will occur, and whether or not the thermally induced trough will be stable enough to combat oncoming onshore flow.
By Sunday, temperatures will maintain a similar but slightly lower temperature spread, but the flow will begin to transition to an onshore flow pattern. This will help build RHs along the coast and will slowly creep inland Monday and Tuesday. There is a slight hint of some precipitation on Monday into Tuesday but models have weakened this chance overtime and confidence is very low. -Muessle
Early-afternoon observations indicated north wind generally 10-20 kt, with the strongest speeds south of Heceta Head. The 12Z model guidance indicates potential 20-25 kt gusts over PZZ275 through this evening. Models may be a little over- zealous with these speeds, but will hold on to the current advisory. Wind speeds slowly decrease tonight and Thu and should be in the 10-15 kt range Thu afternoon. It is possible a few gusts 20-25 kt will occur late Thu afternoon through the evening, but confidence in speeds, duration and frequency is not that high. Wind veers to the east late Thu night and continues Fri, with gusts to 20 kt possible.
Northeast to East wind persists Fri through Sat, although the GFS hints at a shift to light south over PZZ255 and PZZ275 Sat morning. The NAM is slightly slower with this transition. Wind speeds generally 10 kt or less Sat afternoon through early Mon.
Wave heigheights to hover in the 4-6 ft range through the weekend. There will be a 2-3 ft longer period northwest swell, but the prime contributor will be shorter period wind waves/fresh swell. -Weishaar
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11pm PDT this evening for Waters from Cascade Head to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.