E Gulf from 22N to 25N E of 87W including Straits of Florida Offshore Forecast
|Tonight...Ne To E Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 7 To 10 Ft In N To Ne Swell.|
|Tue...Ne To E Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft In Ne Swell.|
|Tue Night...Ne To E Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 7 To 10 Ft In Ne Swell.|
|Wed...E Winds 20 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft In Ne Swell.|
|Wed Night...E Winds 20 Kt. Seas 6 To 8 Ft.|
|Thu...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft.|
|Thu Night...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft.|
|Fri...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Fri Night...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Sat...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Sat Night...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
| Synopsis for Keys coastal waters from Ocean Reef to Dry Tortugas: GMZ005|
1012 AM EST Mon Mar 8 2021
A strong dome of high pressure located over the eastern third of the United States will result in an extended period of strong northeast to east breezes through Tuesday night. As the high treks eastward, breezes will slowly slacken late in the work week into the weekend.
The Approximate Shoreward Edge of the Gulf Stream as of March 6, 2021...
- 49 NM South of Dry Tortugas Light...on Loggerhead Key.
- 41 NM South of Cosgrove Shoal Light...off the Marquesas Keys.
- 28 NM South of Sand Key Light...off Key West.
- 19 NM South of Looe Key...off Big Pine Key.
- 23 NM South of Sombrero Key Light...off Marathon.
- 6 NM Southeast of Alligator Reef Light...off Islamorada.
- 4 NM Southeast of Molasses Reef Light...off Key Largo.
- 3 NM East of Carysfort Reef Light...off Ocean Reef.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Key West FL
400pm EST Monday Mar 8 2021
Temperatures have risen to the lower to mid 70s this afternoon across the Florida Keys, near forecast highs for the day. Strato- cumulus is increasing in coverage from the east as low-level flow veers. This is due to the 1035 mb high pressure cell over the Carolinas moving slowly to the eastern seaboard. Windy conditions continue with gusts to near 30 mph at times. Dew points are mainly in the lower 50s as drier air from aloft reaches the surface in a well-mixed boundary layer. Key West radar (KBYX) is echo-free, with the exception of a smoke plume from a prescribed burn over Cape Sable moving west-southwest over the Gulf waters.
Changes to the overall forecast this cycle were minimal with the hazardous marine conditions continuing to be the primary concern. The best chances for rainfall during the forecast may well come tonight, but confidence in measurable precipitation is rather low. The aforementioned well-mixed boundary layer is modeled to become completely saturated from about 4000 feet to near 7000 feet, which could support patchy drizzle and perhaps some isolated light showers. Chances look best across the Lower Keys and out into adjacent portions of the Straits, where areas of drizzle and scattered light showers may develop. This pattern may repeat on tomorrow night and Wednesday night in association with the nighttime wind surges, but height rises aloft and increasing subsidence will start to weigh on the already rather thin boundary layer, likely decreasing overall coverage and intensity of light showers. The more impactful weather variable will certainly be the wind, which will continue through the remainder of the week. Temps will slowly moderate, increasing back to near normal toward the end of the week.
The extended forecast (Friday through Sunday night) will start to bring a more meaningful change to sensible weather as winds east to southeast and slacken as the western North Atlantic high (at this point near Bermuda) starts to weaken substantially. Meanwhile, heigheights aloft will continue to rise as the upper-level ridging pivots directly overhead the Keys. This will effectively end any small chances for precipitation as temperatures warm to above average (highs in the lower 80s and lows in the lower 70s). No cold fronts are on the horizon in the next 7 days.
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the nearshore and offshore waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis: A strong dome of high pressure located over the eastern third of the United States will result in an extended period of strong northeast to east breezes through Tuesday night. As the high treks eastward, breezes will slowly slacken late in the work week into the weekend.
On this date in 1989, the daily record cold high temperature of 66 degrees was last recorded in Key West. Temperature records date back to 1872.
NOAA Key West FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.