Marine Weather Net

Florence OR to Point St. George between 150 and 250 NM Offshore Forecast


TODAY

NW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

TONIGHT

NW
WINDS
15 - 25
KNOTS

MON

NNW
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

MON NIGHT

N
WINDS
15 - 25
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
PZZ915 Forecast Issued: 1228 AM PST Sun Nov 27 2022

Today...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 7 To 12 Ft.
Tonight...Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 10 To 14 Ft.
Mon...N To Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 12 To 16 Ft.
Mon Night...N Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 11 To 14 Ft.
Tue...N To Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 8 To 11 Ft.
Tue Night...W Winds 20 To 30 Kt, Becoming Sw. Seas 7 To 12 Ft.
Wed...W To Sw Winds 20 To 30 Kt, Becoming W To Nw 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 8 To 13 Ft.
Wed Night...W To Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 10 To 15 Ft.
Thu...N Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 12 To 18 Ft.
Thu Night...N Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 11 To 19 Ft.
SHARE THIS PAGE:           
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
915pm PST Sat Nov 26 2022

An update was issued this evening to update the sky cover forecast through Monday evening, generally to increase coverage from the coast to the Cascades. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with a Winter Weather Advisory /PDXWSWMFR/ in effect for the Cascade foothills and Cascades in southern Oregon from early Sunday evening through Monday afternoon, with the bulk of precipitation expected during the middle 12 hours...Late Sunday night through Monday morning. Snow levels will start out around 3500 to 4500 feet, fall to 2500 to 3000 feet by Monday morning, then settle at around 2000 to 2500 feet during Monday. This system will mainly impact those traveling over Highway 140/Lake of the s, Highway 62/Union Creek and Crater Lake, Highway 138/Diamond Lake, Highway 58/Willamette Pass, and to a lesser extent Highway 97 in Klamath County north of Chiloquin. As the last flurries taper off during Monday evening, snow levels may drop as low as 1200 feet.

A colder, stronger event is possible at mid-week with moderate to heavy rain at the coast likely arriving Wednesday, then rain and snow (potentially at low elevations) moving inland Wednesday night through Thursday night.

Forecast uncertainty increases substantially beyond Thursday night. Please see the previous discussion below for further details.

Marine
Updated 800pm PST Saturday 26 November 2022...Gusty north winds south of Cape Blanco will combine with northwest swell to create very steep seas tonight. seas will be steep north of the cape as well, but winds should be relatively benign. Winds will gradually decrease overnight south of Cape Blanco. All waters will experience a lull in both winds and seas on Sunday. Another round of steep moderate northwest swell will move through Sunday night into Tuesday. A strong cold front approaches Wednesday and there is uncertainty as to how much south wind develops prior to the arrival of the front, but strong and gusty south winds are possible late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. -Sargeant/BPN

/Issued 157pm PST Sat Nov 26 2022/

26/12Z NAM/GFS/EC in.

The front that brought precipitation to the area Friday and Friday night has departed to the east, and the Medford forecast area is under a short wave ridge between systems at this time. Mostly clear skies prevail across most of the area, but areas of low clouds and fog are hanging in there over the west side valleys.

The break will be short-lived. The next system, in the form of a short wave coming down in northwesterly flow aloft, will move into the Pacific Northwest tonight, then dig into the intermountain states Sunday into Monday.

Precipitation associated with the initial wave will begin Sunday, starting at the coast around mid-morning before spreading inland along the I-5 corridor around noon. Snow in the Cascades will begin around noon as well. Amounts will be on the light side, and little in the way of impacts is expected in the areas that get rain. The snow in the mountains will have an impact, although it will be a small one initially. Snow amounts in the Cascades through this time will be less than 2-3 inches. Snow levels will be around 4000 feet Sunday.

However, short waves moving down the back side of the trough will support shower activity Sunday night into Monday night, along with lowering snow levels. Snow levels will come down to 3000-3500 feet Sunday night, to 2000-2500 feet Monday, then to 1000-1500 feet Monday night. Snowfall will peak Monday morning, then diminish through Monday night. Snowfall rates at the peak will approach 1"/hr in the Diamond Lake, Toketee Falls, and Willamette Pass areas.

Some of the higher elevation locations in the west side valleys will see light snow up to 0.5 inches Monday night...places like Ashland, Weed, Mt. Shasta City, OBrien, and Glide.

Gusty winds are expected afternoon through Monday night. Gusts to 40 mph will be fairly common near the High Cascade lakes. This will complicate travel there due to the blowing snow in addition to the falling snow. East of the Cascades winds will be gusting to 35 mph.

Some showers will linger into Tuesday, but overall that day will be a "between systems" day with relatively light winds and precipitation.

Extended discussion...Tuesday 28 Nov through Fri 02 Dec 2022. We'll still be expecting a drier post-frontal west to northwest flow over the region Tuesday with some lingering shower chances over the coast and Umpqua.

Another cold front reaches the coast Wednesday as a deep upper trough digs over the Northeast Pacific. Confidence is fairly high that the coast, Umpqua and Cascades will see rain and mountain snow falling starting late Tuesday night and progressing into early Wednesday. One challenge with Wednesday is that the models have shown a tendency for the trough to dig offshore which can produce uncertainty in the amount of inland precipitation affecting the Cascades. For now we're continuing to steer toward the WPC Quantitative Precipitation Forecast solution which has increased amounts over SW Oregon a bit versus previous runs. This looks ok with us considering the brief atmospheric river impact taking place. For Wednesday as this front and AR impact the coast we're looking at 1-2 inches of rain possible across the coast and coastal mountains with nearly an inch possible across the Cascades mainly north of highway 140.

We've increased the south winds in the coastal areas and in the Shasta Valley as well for Wednesday where some headlines will probably be needed eventually to cover potentially developing hazards.

Things get more interesting as the front slides southward and the upper trough digs off the coast. Colder air will filter into the area with snow levels lowering to the 1500-2000 feet range Wednesday night. Low elevation snow is a concern, but details are quite uncertain yet.

Northern California is looking more susceptible to a heavy snow episode event Wednesday night and Thursday and we'll be looking forward to collaborating with WPC on this event to impact the South Oregon Cascades and Siskiyous, perhaps some lower elevations of the interior, and parts of Siskiyou county including Mt. Shasta. Will need to wait a bit longer for this to develop yet. Stavish

NOAA Medford OR Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 4pm Sunday to 4pm PST Monday for ORZ025-027-028.

CA...None. Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 1am PST Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 4pm Sunday to 10am PST Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 1am PST Sunday for PZZ356-376.