Marine Weather Net

Florence OR to Point St. George between 150 and 250 NM Offshore Forecast


TONIGHT

NNE
WINDS
15 - 25
KNOTS

THU

NNE
WINDS
10 - 20
KNOTS

THU NIGHT

N
WINDS
5 - 15
KNOTS

FRI

N
WINDS
5 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
PZZ915 Forecast Issued: 832 PM PDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Tonight...N To Ne Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft.
Thu...N To Ne Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft.
Thu Night...N Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft.
Fri...N Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To Less Than 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft.
Fri Night...Variable Winds Less Than 10 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft.
Sat...W Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 10 To 16 Ft.
Sat Night...W To Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 10 To 15 Ft.
Sun...N To Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 8 To 11 Ft.
Sun Night...N Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 7 To 9 Ft.
Mon...N Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 6 To 10 Ft.
Mon Night...N Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 5 To 9 Ft.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
226pm PDT Wednesday April 17 2024

.SHORT TERMTonight through Friday Night...The steady dry and warming trend continues through the rest of the work week, with high pressure building in overhead and a thermal trough developing along the coast. This pattern is producing a general east wind aloft, and this will then result in downsloping winds, especially along the south coast near Brookings, and will allow for strong overnight inversions for inland valleys. This means that while daytime highs will be above normal for this time of year, lows in the valleys will be cool. While we can not rule out a few pockets of freezing temperatures tonight, widespread freeze is not expected, with only an approximately 5 percent chance of lows reaching 32 degrees or below. The next several nigheights should be steadily warmer, so there is are no additional frost/freeze concerns in the near term. -BPN

Long Term
Saturday through Tuesday
Overview:

For this portion of the discussion--Saturday through Tuesday--the only noteworthy item is the light rainfall expected along/near the coast and across Douglas County Saturday and Saturday night. Portions of far northern Lake County near the Douglas County boarder will be in the mix as well for these chances. These chances are around 20-60 percent with only light amounts (<0.10") expected. We have another chance of ~30% or less for rain Tuesday into Tuesday night. This later time period will also see chances for higher elevation snow across the Cascades. In fact, this will be the start of a broader and stronger system moving into the PacNW just beyond this forecast period. Otherwise, seasonable temperatures, relatively light wind speeds, and essentially no impacts are expected through this stretch of the forecast. Of perhaps more note is the relatively warm high temperatures for this time of year.

Further Details:

Focusing on the precipitation chances, the first system Sat/Saturday night will only bring very light amounts of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast to the forecast area. The coast has the highest probability of accumulating rainfall, but actual amounts are likely to be low with the probability of getting more than 0.10"/12hrs at less than 10%. Additionally, the main dynamics associated with this system are very far north, so if the system shifts north at all we could miss out entirely. For the opposite scenario of a southward shift, this doesn't look to improve our rain chances due to trajectory of the H5 trough. We would have to see a major shift at 500mb too see higher rainfall amounts, but confidence is not high for this given model agreement on this track Sat/Sat night.

For the Tuesday system, we are only seeing the beginning of this system at the end of this current 7 day forecast. Models are very out of phase from one another at this point, so confidence is low on the details. That said, the NBM is indicating a similar trend in Quantitative Precipitation Forecast amounts of 0.10" or more in 12hrs to be less than 10 percent. This is a stronger and broader system with potentially a more impactful track. Impacts would likely carry over into Wednesday and beyond (outside this current forecast). Confidence is low on the details, but this could very well be our next more widepsread impactful system. We shall see over the coming days. -Guerrero

Marine
Updated 200pm Wednesday, April 17, 2024...A thermal trough will bring strong gusty north winds and steep seas to all waters today through late this evening. Gales and very steep wind driven seas can be expected south of Cape Blanco. North winds will ease somewhat overnight into Thursday, but seas remain hazardous to small craft through Thursday night. The thermal trough weakens by Friday and conditions will improve. Relatively light winds and low seas continue into Saturday, but a weak cold front will move through in the afternoon. Gusty north winds and steep seas are expected to return later in the weekend. -Spilde

NOAA Medford OR Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5am PDT Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Gale Warning until 11pm PDT this evening for PZZ356-376.