Florence OR to Point St. George between 150 and 250 NM Offshore Forecast
|Tonight...N Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft.|
|Wed...N Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 5 To 9 Ft.|
|Wed Night...N Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 8 Ft.|
|Thu...N Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Thu Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft.|
|Fri...N To Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 6 To 7 Ft.|
|Fri Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Variable. Seas 6 To 7 Ft.|
|Sat...W To Nw Winds Less Than 10 Kt, Becoming S To Sw. Seas 5 To 6 Ft.|
|Sat Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Sun...Variable Winds Less Than 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft.|
|Sun Night...Variable Winds Less Than 10 Kt, Becoming N. Seas 4 To 5 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Medford OR
1051pm PDT Tuesday April 13 2021
.Updated Aviation Discussion.
14/00Z NAM in.
Skies are starting to clear across the Medford CWA this evening in the wake of a short wave rotating around an upper low. Several east side locations reported 0.01 inches of precipitation in light showers. Higher amounts may have fallen over higher terrain. However, a relatively tight pressure gradient remains over the area, and this has brought breezy conditions, particularly over higher terrain and across the East Side. Satellite imagery showed some blowing dust streaming off of Summer and Fossil Lakes. There are no indications that the dust is thick enough to warrant a Blowing Dust Advisory, but this will be a factor until the winds die down later this evening.
The low will move out to the south and east tonight and the flow aloft will turn northerly as a high amplitude long wave ridge moves toward the west coast. This will make for a drying and warming trend Wednesday into Thursday with diminishing winds. By Thursday, inland highs will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
The exception will be along the coast and over the coastal waters, where a strengthening thermal trough will bring increasing winds and increasingly onshore flow will keep the temperatures down.
Long term discussion from the Tuesday afternoon AFD...Friday 16 April through Tuesday 20 April 2021...An area of high pressure will set up over our area, and this will help the thermal trough redevelop. Thus, expect a warming and drying trend with somewhat breezy afternoon winds. In fact, temperatures on Friday are expected to be nearly 10 to 15 degrees above normal with inland areas possibly reaching 20 to 25 degrees above normal on Saturday and Sunday. Meanwhile, overnight lows will generally be mild through this time frame. Very dry humidities will continue since we will remain in north to northeast flow.
Ensembles are hinting at a weak frontal system moving through the Pacific Northwest early next week. This front would be extremely weak, and light precipitation could occur for portion of the Coast, Coast Range, and Umpqua Basin. However, this is likely a bit overdone, and the ensembles have been pushing these rain chances back each day, so expect the rain chances in the forecast to decrease over time. -Schaaf
The 8 to 14 day outlook, valid April 21-27 2021, calls for greater chances of above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.
Updated 730pm PDT Tuesday, 13 April 2021...High pressure centered west of the British Columbia coast and a resultant thermal trough along the Oregon coast will continue gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas through Wednesday evening. Gales are expected beyond about 5NM of the coast south of Gold Beach this evening. Guidance suggests boundary layer winds of 35 to 45 knots for areas generally south of Cape Blanco until 06Z/11PM PDT this evening. Expect the strongest winds and most hazardous seas will be until 9PM PDT. Winds will then begin to diminish tonight into Wednesday, though advisory level conditions are still expected. Seas subside Wednesday into Wednesday night. Winds and seas are then expected to drop below Small Craft Advisory levels for all areas by Thursday, with relatively calm conditions continuing through Friday. ~Keene/Petrucelli
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 5am PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356-370. Hazardous Seas Warning until 11pm PDT this evening for PZZ350-356-370. Small Craft Advisory from 5am Wednesday to 5am PDT Thursday for PZZ376. Gale Warning until 8pm PDT this evening for PZZ376. Hazardous Seas Warning until 5am PDT Wednesday for PZZ376.