Florence OR to Point St. George between 150 and 250 NM Offshore Forecast
|Tonight And Mon...E To Ne Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Mon Night...Ne Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft.|
|Tue...E To Ne Winds Less Than 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft.|
|Tue Night...Variable Winds Less Than 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft.|
|Wed...Variable Winds Less Than 5 Kt, Becoming S To Se. Seas 4 To 5 Ft.|
|Wed Night...Variable Winds Less Than 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Thu...Variable Winds Less Than 5 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Thu Night...Variable Winds Less Than 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Fri...Variable Winds Less Than 10 Kt, Becoming Ne. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Fri Night...N Winds Less Than 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Medford OR
225pm PDT Sunday July 3 2022
An upper low will gradually move inland north of the area tonight while a trough remains over the area. Meanwhile a weak surface low will approach the northern California coast tonight. With this pattern, expect showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms across inland areas through this evening. Increasing showers are expected tonight into Monday morning. Then scattered to isolated showers will continue during the day Monday and into Monday night. An upper trough remains centered just offshore through late this week bringing mild temperatures. Also, expect additional shower chances at least through Wednesday, especially from the Cascades west.
* Showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms expected across inland areas through this evening. The best chance for thunderstorms will be from the S. OR Cascades eastward with a slight chance also in central/eastern Siskiyou County.
* Increasing chances for showers tonight into Monday morning with widespread light to locally moderate rainfall amounts. Showers will become scattered to isolated during the day Monday and through Monday evening.
* Additional chances for showers Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Cooler than normal temperatures through much of the week.
With the upper low to the north gradually moving onshore and a trough remains over the area, expect showers to develop this afternoon and evening. Models and ensembles support a slight chance for thunderstorms occuring ahead of this low, across central and eastern portions of the area. Satellite imagery early this afternoon shows some cumulus buildups and an isolated thunderstorm over northern Klamath County. The best area for thunderstorms today will be in Klamath and Lake County (20-25%) but also extends southwest into the Cascades and central/eastern Siskiyou County. Gusty winds and small hail are possible with thunderstorms today.
Overnight, as the upper low moves inland and a surface low nears the northern California coast, models are showing additional showers developing across the area, especially from western/central Siskiyou County north-northeastward into southern Curry, southern Josephine, Jackson, eastern Douglas, Klamath and northern Lake Counties. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be mainly light, around a tenth of an inch or less. However, high resolution models support some moderate showers especially across the Cascades and immediate surrounding areas, the Siskiyous and over the mountains in western Siskiyou County. The National Blend of Models is also indicating a 20% chance for rainfall between 0.10 to 0.25 inches for areas in or near the Cascades tonight into Monday morning.
Chances for showers linger through the day Monday and into Monday evening and night as the upper low remains just to the north, gradually moving northeastward late in the day. Rainfall in showers is forecast to be mainly light Monday evening, but there remains variability in the models/ensembles. High resolution models continue to show some locally moderate showers across the mountains and foothills in western Siskiyou, Jackson, western Klamath and eastern Douglas Counties Monday evening. In addition to shower chances, there will be a slight chance for a few thunderstorms (15%) in Klamath and Lake Counties Monday afternoon. Cooler than normal temperatures are expected across the area Monday with highs in the 70s to near 80 across inland valleys and in the mid to upper 60s along the coast.
A trough remains in place, centered just offshore, Tuesday through late in the week. Shortwave disturbances moving around the trough and into the area will bring additional chances for showers Tuesday and Wednesday, especially from the Cascades west. Late in the week, the GFS and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) indicate the potential for additional shortwave disturbances which could bring showers, or even a slight chance for thunderstorms, to inland areas, especially across the S. Oregon Cascades.
Updated 200pm PDT Sunday 03 July 2022...An upper level trough will remain over the eastern Pacific Ocean and into the Pacific Northwest through the week, and this will result in light winds with seas dominated by a very light northwest swell. This pattern will prevent the development of the thermal trough, but marine stratus will be persistent through the week and visibilities will be reduced at times. The pattern may begin to transition late week and into next weekend, at which time, the thermal trough may redevelop and hazardous conditions may return.
NOAA Medford OR Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Pacific Coastal Waters... None.