Florence OR to Point St. George between 150 and 250 NM Offshore Forecast
| Today...W To Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming W To Sw. Seas 5 To 6 Ft. |
| Tonight...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 7 Ft. |
| Fri...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 8 Ft. |
| Fri Night...W To Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 6 To 7 Ft. |
| Sat...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 6 To 8 Ft. |
| Sat Night...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 7 To 8 Ft. |
| Sun...W To Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W To Sw. Seas 6 To 8 Ft. |
| Sun Night...W To Sw Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft. |
| Mon...W Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft. |
| Mon Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR Issued by National Weather Service Portland OR 240am PDT Thu May 15 2025 An extensive area of clouds has pushed into the coast and the Umpqua Basin this morning ahead of a weak front that will push towards the coast today. Otherwise, skies remain mostly clear across the forecast area, with the exception of a thin layer of cirrus moving overhead. The weak front arrives later today, with light showers possible along the coast, into the Umpqua Basin and into the Cascades north of Crater Lake. A few showers may make it into northern Lake and Klamath counties as well, but any precipitation there would be spotty at best. Dry weather returns Friday as weak high pressure returns, with milder temperatures in the afternoon. Some brief clearing skies are possible as well, but will be short lived. There's good agreement that another, but stronger upper trough will move in from the northwest Friday night and Saturday resulting in cooler temperatures and increasing shower chances. Showers will become more frequent in the afternoon due to daytime heating and the resulting increased instability. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible Saturday afternoon, but the general consensus is instability will be greatest east of the Cascades, thus have a slight chance of storms in this area. The upper trough will exit out of the area Saturday night, but there's some question as to the location of another weak upper trough to follow Sunday. The operational GFS (Global Forecast System) slides the upper trough over our area while the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) has it farther north which would favor a drier solution. The respective individual ensemble members pretty much follow the operational solutions. Additionally, the majority of the clusters also lean towards a dry solution. The one commonality is they all show drying Sunday afternoon. Therefore we'll keep a slight chance of showers for the northern Cascades, and portions of the Coastal counties Sunday morning with dry conditions in the afternoon. The general consensus shows upper ridging building in Sunday night through Monday. The operational ECMWF suggest the ridging will flatten out as a shortwave moves in from the west, and shows some evidence of light precipitation for the northwest part of the area. However the majority of the individual ECMWF ensemble members and clusters favor stronger upper ridging, thus we'll keep the forecast dry for the start of next week. In fact most, if not all of next week could end up dry with sufficient evidence supporting stronger ridging to at least keep the storm track north of our forecast area. -Petrucelli/BPN Marine Updated 200am Thursday, May 15, 2025...Gusty north winds and steep seas will continue through tonight south of Cape Blanco. Seas diminish a bit Friday, then low pressure will bring continued gusty north winds and areas of fog and showers Friday night into Saturday. Increasing west-northwest swell is also expected this weekend. -BPN NOAA Medford OR Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories OR...None. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5am PDT Friday for PZZ356-376. |
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