Florence OR to Point St. George between 150 and 250 NM Offshore Forecast
|Today...N To Ne Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 7 To 9 Ft. Scattered Showers.|
|Tonight...N Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 7 To 10 Ft.|
|Sat...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 8 To 10 Ft.|
|Sat Night...N Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 8 To 12 Ft.|
|Sun...N Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 6 To 11 Ft.|
|Sun Night...N To Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 5 To 9 Ft.|
|Mon...N To Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft.|
|Mon Night...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft.|
|Tue...N Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 7 To 9 Ft.|
|Tue Night...N Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 7 To 9 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Medford OR
910am PDT Fri September 29 2023
Some showers are moving northeast through the region this morning out ahead of a frontal system pushing southeast over the far eastern Pacific. A small change to the forecast was made to account for the increased extent of the light showers in the area. Rain gauges are reporting 0.20 to 0.50 inches fallen in the last 12 hours over northwest Douglas, Coos, and Curry counties; with closer to 0.01-0.10" measured further inland in Jackson, Josephine, and SE Douglas so far. Showery weather continues through tomorrow, with moderate precipitation spreading east and south this evening and tonight, and light showers lingering over and east of the Cascades into tomorrow evening. After that, besides a 20% chance of some light precipitation in north Douglas and Coos counties as a disturbance slides over the top of the ridge that starts to nudge in beginning late this weekend, dry and warmer weather resumes for the remainder of the upcoming work week.
For more details on the upcoming forecast period, see the previous discussion below. -CSP
Updated 830am September 29, 2023...A warm front will move through the waters through this morning with breezy south winds and some rain, but seas remaining below advisory levels. Low pressure moves southward through the waters and into California today. Winds will increase and switch to the north this afternoon, resulting in conditions hazardous to small craft for all areas by early this evening. A thermal trough will then strengthen this weekend with gusty north winds and steep to very steep and hazardous wind driven seas developing early Saturday morning and persisting through at least Sunday. This pattern is likely to continue into next week with some fluctuation in the strength of the thermal trough. -Spilde/BR-y
/Issued 253am PDT Fri September 29 2023/
An approaching low pressure system is expected to bring showers back to northern California and southern Oregon this morning. The system will move eastward across the area, bringing widespread precipitation today and tomorrow. For today, the highest rainfall amounts are expected over areas of Curry, Coos, and Douglas counties with 0.6-0.8 inches expected over higher terrain. The main concern with this system will be tonight. Elevated thunderstorm chances (15-20%) will be present over Curry, Josephine, Jackson, Siskiyou, and Klamath counties. Lesser thunderstorm chances (10-15%) will be present across all other areas. Model soundings are suggesting about an inch of precipitable water over North Bend, Roseburg, and Medford and high humidity at lower levels. CAPE levels seem unimpressive and other lifting mechanisms are not apparent, so severe activity is unlikely. Even an isolated thunderstorm can generate strong winds, heavy rainfall, and lightning strikes. Extra caution is advised when traveling outside this evening.
Precipitation will linger through early Saturday evening, with the highest amounts shifted over Siskiyou, Modoc, and Lake counties. Amounts are still generally not impactful, with only isolated areas of 0.5 inches expected in these counties. With precipitation mostly spent by the afternoon, thunderstorm activity is not expected Saturday.
Conditions from Sunday and beyond currently look to be defined by a developing ridge over the Pacific Ocean. As the weekend's low pressure system moves east, northwest flow will initially keep temperatures below or near seasonal levels. By midweek, the ridge will move east and bring above average temperatures. While there is some uncertainty in the exact timing and resulting temperatures, the general outcome in both the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and GFS (Global Forecast System) ensemble models is a dry week, with the warmest temperatures coming late in the week and persisting through next weekend. -TAD
NOAA Medford OR Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5pm this afternoon to 11am PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Hazardous Seas Warning from 2am Saturday to 11am PDT Sunday for PZZ356-376.