Florence OR to Point St. George between 60 and 150 NM Offshore Forecast
|Tonight...W Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 12 To 14 Ft.|
|Thu...W To Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 13 To 16 Ft. Scattered Showers.|
|Thu Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming W To Nw 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 12 To 17 Ft.|
|Fri...Sw Winds 15 To 25 Kt, Becoming S To Sw 25 To 35 Kt. Seas 10 To 14 Ft. Chance Of Rain.|
|Fri Night...S To Sw Winds 25 To 35 Kt. Seas 12 To 18 Ft.|
|Sat...S Winds 30 To 40 Kt. Seas 14 To 20 Ft.|
|Sat Night...S To Se Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 11 To 18 Ft.|
|Sun...E To Ne Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 7 To 11 Ft.|
|Sun Night...Ne Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming N. Seas 5 To 7 Ft.|
|Mon...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft.|
|Mon Night...N Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Medford OR
248pm PST Wednesday Nov 30 2022
.SHORT TERM...This afternoon through Friday night... A sharp cold front is moving across the area this afternoon. Some gusty winds preceding the front have been observed in many locations with 57 mph at Port Orford ODOT sensor along the coast, 54 mph at Weed Airport in the Shasta Valley and 56 mph at Summer Lake RAWS over the East Side. We even had some gusty winds here for a while in the Rogue Valley with a peak wind of 37 mph here at the airport. Rain has begun here in the last hour or so and the wind has come down, but it will remain gusty into tonight over portions of NorCal and from the Cascades east. Wind advisories will transition to winter storm warnings in areas that don't have the warning starting before 00z (4pm PST).
Rainfall hasn't been quite as heavy as expected thus far along the coast, but amounts have been mostly around 1.00 inch with more to come into this evening. Radar is showing a good slug of moisture being deposited as snow over the Cascades and this will continue with snowfall rates increasing this evening. Snow levels are running in the 3000-4000 foot range currently, but these will continue to lower this evening and overnight as the front pushes south and east. They'll end up down around 1500 feet or even slightly lower than that by sunrise Thursday west of the Cascades. This means plenty of snow over the mountains, northern California and east of the Cascades, and even some light accumulations over the west side. We aren't making too many changes to the going forecast as it looks mostly on track, but the front does look like it will push east of the area faster, so we have made the end times earlier for just about every location. It looks like the steadiest snow will end by 12z over the Cascades, 18z over the east side and most of NorCal, though may linger til 21z or so in Modoc County. These adjustments can be viewed in the WSWMFR product. For specific snow accumulations, please refer to the snow total graphics on our home page at weather.gov/mfr.
Another notable winter weather item was to add winter weather advisories to the lower elevations of western Siskiyou County and the west side. We still expect some snow showers behind the front late this evening, overnight and into Thursday, which could bring light snow accumulations to areas above 1500 feet. In general, the passes north of Grants Pass (Sexton, Smith, Stage Road and Canyon Mtn), Jacksonville, up higher near Ashland, east Medford, the Illinois Valley, Camas Mtn and perhaps even around Seiad Valley/Happy Camp could have a fresh covering to 2 inches of snow overnight into Thursday morning. Model guidance shows the air mass aloft cooling to -4C, which is cold enough for snow to occur down to the valley floors, but surface temperatures probably won't be quite cold enough for more than a coating on non-paved surfaces below 1500 feet. After 10 am Thursday, even though snow showers could continue into the evening, we don't expect much additional accumulation on roadways with snow melting as it falls for elevations below 2000 feet.
Short wave ridging will move over the area Thursday night into Friday morning, so showers will end for most areas and skies will likely at least partially clear. With fresh snow in many areas, it will turn very cold, especially NorCal and from the Cascades eastward. Temperatures could plummet to near or perhaps even below zero. We've seen this many times in the past and for this reason, we have adjusted minTs downward from the guidance. West of the Cascades, temperatures likely fall down to near or below freezing just about everywhere (except at the beaches where lows in the mid 30s will be common). We'll look into the possibility of a frost advisory for the coast.
One last note, models have been trending the next system farther offshore with a more amplified system, and thus, we're adjusting the forecasts slower with precipitation and also keeping it mainly along the coast and in NorCal. At this time, it doesn't look like we'll be issuing any watches for that system just yet. Snow headlines may be needed at some point this weekend with guidance eventually showing precipitation arriving into NorCal Saturday night or Sunday. Please see long term section for more details on that. -Spilde
Sat 03 Dec through Wednesday 07 Dec 2022.
The extended period will commence with a cold upper level low off the Pacific Northwest coast and strong southwest flow aloft over the Medford forecast area.
The Tuesday model runs depicted a trough swinging inland Saturday, pushing a front ahead of it. Today's GFS (Global Forecast System) ensemble run depicts a digging trough remaining offshore south offshore before moving onshore Sunday with most of the energy focused over northern California. The EC ensemble is similar, but slower and the energy is focused near the Oregon/California line Sunday night.
As one might expect, this changes the forecast considerably, as the focus of precipitation will shift to northern California, especially the Mount Shasta area, which could get a significant winter storm out of this Saturday night into Sunday. Meanwhile, farther north over Oregon, only the northern edge of the precipitation will reach the area and easterly flow will keep the area dry, with the possible exception of east facing slopes from the Cascades east.
Both the EC and GFS ensembles show the trough weakening and moving out to the southeast Sunday night into Monday, leaving the Medford forecast area under dry north to northwest flow aloft with a long wave ridge offshore.
This pattern will persist through Wednesday, with the upper level flow becoming more westerly with time. The ridge will weaken, and the ridge axis will move onshore Wednesday. It will be dry and cold Monday night through Tuesday night.
A weak trough will approach the coast Thursday, and the associated front will bring the next chance of precipitation to the coast beginning Wednesday night. However, the NBM is bringing it in a bit early, on Wednesday. Suspect that the onset of precipitation will be pushed back in future runs.
Updated 230pm PST Wednesday 30 November 2022...A strong cold front has mostly moved through the coastal waters. In the fronts wake are moderate west to southwest winds. These winds will diminish tonight. Seas are likely to remain very steep as northwest swell builds tonight into Thursday. Another strong front will approach the region Friday. The front will stall offshore, and this will bring an extended round of gales and very steep seas Friday into Saturday. The front will retreat Saturday into Sunday, and winds and seas will diminish at that time.
NOAA Medford OR Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
OR...Winter Storm Warning until 10am PST Thursday for ORZ029-030.
Wind Advisory until 4pm PST this afternoon for ORZ030-031.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10pm this evening to 10am PST Thursday for ORZ021>026.
Winter Storm Warning until 4am PST Thursday for ORZ024-025.
Winter Storm Warning until 4am PST Thursday for ORZ027-028.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10am PST Thursday for ORZ031.
CA...Winter Storm Warning until 10am PST Thursday for CAZ080.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10pm this evening to 10am PST Thursday for CAZ080.
Wind Advisory until 7pm PST this evening for CAZ081.
Winter Storm Warning until 10am PST Thursday for CAZ081.
Winter Storm Warning until 10am PST Thursday for CAZ082-083.
Winter Storm Warning until 10am PST Thursday for CAZ084.
Wind Advisory until 4pm PST this afternoon for CAZ085.
Winter Storm Warning until 1pm PST Thursday for CAZ085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 4pm PST this afternoon for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Hazardous Seas Warning until 4am PST Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376.