Florence OR to Point St. George between 60 and 150 NM Offshore Forecast
| Today...N To Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N To Ne 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 12 To 14 Ft. |
| Tonight...N To Ne Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 12 To 13 Ft. |
| Mon...E To Ne Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming S 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 10 To 12 Ft. |
| Mon Night...S To Sw Winds 20 To 30 Kt, Becoming W To Sw 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 9 To 13 Ft. Chance Of Rain. |
| Tue...S Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 8 To 10 Ft. |
| Tue Night...S Winds 30 To 40 Kt. Seas 10 To 17 Ft. |
| Wed...S To Sw Winds 30 To 35 Kt, Becoming Sw 25 To 30 Kt. Seas 15 To 17 Ft. |
| Wed Night...S To Sw Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 15 To 19 Ft. |
| Thu...S Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 17 To 20 Ft. |
| Thu Night...Sw Winds 20 To 30 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 15 To 19 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1010pm PDT Sat Nov 1 2025 Aviation Discussion Updated. /Issued 812pm PDT Sat Nov 1 2025/ UPDATE...Updated Marine Discussion. Marine Updated 800pm PDT Saturday, November 1, 2025...Steep seas will persist through at least Monday. Seas will be dominated by west- northwest swell. However, wind seas will mix with swell on Sunday afternoon and Sunday night as gusty northerly winds develop. A strong front approaches late Tuesday, then moves across the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. This is followed by another strong front on Thursday. These fronts will bring the potential for gales. Additionally, expect building west swell late Wednesday and Thursday which combined with wind seas may result in dangerous and chaotic high to very high seas. This may result in hazardous seas and dangerous bar crossings. We will be monitoring this period and updating as confidence increases in the timing and details. /Issued 221pm PDT Sat Nov 1 2025/ An active pattern will continue through the next several days, with only a few breaks here and there all the way into next weekend. There will be several frontal passages in that time, the first weak front is passing today, then a very robust system arrives Monday into early Wednesday, followed by another front around Thursday, then finally another system arrives next weekend. Wet and windy weather will accompany nearly all of these systems, but winter weather will not be too much of a concern given the expected higher snow levels. A narrow band of precipitation has moved onshore this morning, and as of this writing is stretched along a corridor from coastal Curry County northeast to the Cascades just west of Bend. This area of rain will push eastward through the afternoon, then dissipate as it crosses the Cascades this evening and tonight. Most rain will fall along and west of the Cascades, but a few hundredths are possible to the east, with any stronger showers that make it over the mountains. Breezy winds are accompanying this front, but nothing impactful is expected. Conditions should improve by tomorrow, and although temperatures will be cooler behind the front, skies will be mostly clear after any early morning valley fog dissipates. After a rather quiet Sunday, a warm front will arrive from the south and linger in the area Monday through midday Tuesday. The overrunning of warm air over the cooler surface air will result in widespread light precipitation, but temperatures will not warm much at the surface, remaining at or just below seasonal normals. The most impactful system in the forecast is then set to arrive late Tuesday into Wednesday, with a intense front and a substantial moisture plume bringing strong winds and heavy precipitation to southern Oregon and far northern California. With surface pressure gradients ranging roughly between -6 and -8 mb across the area, and with 700mb winds of 50 to 70 kts, it is looking more and more likely that wind headlines will be necessary, especially along the coast, in the Shasta Valley, and across the East Side. Some guidance suggests that strong winds could impact portions of the West Side as well, including near Ashland, and in some ofthe other roughly south/north oriented valleys. Meanwhile, moisture transport values for this front, as measured by IVT, a function of wind and humidity, are approaching values of 1000 to 1250 (a typical front would average about 500). This would be considered a strong atmospheric river, or a rather classic "Pineapple Express." A substantial amount of rain is possible for much of the area, especially along the coast and in Siskiyou County. However, the front is a fast mover, and some locations, such as the Rogue Valley near Medford and much of the East Side, will see lesser amounts due to significant downsloping winds off the Siskiyous and Cascades. While widespread flooding is not expected at this time, we will likely see nuisance type flooding with ponding on roadways and blocked drains due to recently fallen leaves. Additionally, King Tides are expected Nov 5-7 (Wednesday through Friday) which could bring additional impacts to the coast as this system enters the region, especially with heavy rains putting additional water into area rivers and estuaries. Some localized coastal flooding is possible, particularly for low lying areas and roads around Coos Bay. Lastly, snow levels will remain high through next week, between 6000 and 8000 feet, so we are not expecting any impactful winter weather. Another robust front arrives Thursday, and although it looks weaker than the previous one, most model guidance suites are depicting somewhat similar potential for impactful winds and rain. After a brief break Friday, we are seeing the signs of another frontal system Saturday/Sunday. There is quite a bit of variation in model guidance at this time range, so confidence is low, but it does look like the active pattern shows very little sign of slowing down as we head into next week. -BPN NOAA Medford OR Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4pm PDT Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376. |
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