Florence OR to Point St. George between 60 and 150 NM Offshore Forecast
|Today...Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 12 To 14 Ft. Chance Of Showers.|
|Tonight...W To Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 10 To 12 Ft. Chance Of Showers.|
|Fri...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Variable. Seas 9 To 10 Ft. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Fri Night...S To Se Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 7 To 9 Ft.|
|Sat...S Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft, Building To 8 To 14 Ft.|
|Sat Night...S Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 10 To 17 Ft.|
|Sun...S To Sw Winds 15 To 25 Kt, Becoming W To Sw 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 10 To 15 Ft.|
|Sun Night...N To Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 8 To 11 Ft.|
|Mon...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 6 To 8 Ft.|
|Mon Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N To Ne 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 6 To 8 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Medford OR
915am PST Thu Dec 7 2023
...Updated Aviation Discussion... bands of precipitation have been moving through the region through the night into this morning, brining light to moderate snow to the Cascades and higher elevations in the Siskiyous, Mt Shasta and other higher ranges in Northern California. Snow levels have lowered this morning down to Siskiyou Summit and should remain at around 3500 feet through the day today, before lowering to near 2500 feet tonight. The bulk of the precipitation should be through before this happens, with lighter snow amounts. Current forecast looks on track and will not update this morning.
/Issued 412am PST Thu Dec 7 2023/
SHORT TERM...Waves of showers are moving through the region this morning as one trough exits to the east and another quick moving trough moves in later this morning. Snow levels are currently hovering around 4000 ft, but are expected to bottom out around 3500 ft by sunrise and hover there through the day today. This will bring some moderate winter impacts to the Cascades/Siskiyous/Warners and higher terrain of Siskiyou County through the day today. The heaviest snow is expected across the Cascades where around 12 to 16 inches are in the forecast. For the remainder of the advisory area, generally 6 to 10 inches are expected. The Winter Weather Advisory was expanded, however, to cover the Highway 97 corridor north of Chiloquin where 2 to 4 inches over the morning could cause some travel difficulties today. More details can be found at WSWMFR.
While snow is the main impact for today, there will also be breezy winds, isolated thunderstorms and periods of moderate to heavy rain with this quick moving trough. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph are fairly common across the highest terrain this morning, and this will persist into the afternoon. There could be a brief uptick where gusts reach up to 40 mph late this morning/early afternoon as midlevel winds increase, but winds in general will be weaker today compared to Wednesday, so advisory level winds are not anticipated today. Isolated thunderstorms are moving over the waters and onshore this morning with a few ground strikes recorded near Gold Beach and Coos Bay. This trend is expected to continue through the morning and into the afternoon with chances expected mainly west of the I-5 corridor. The bulk of the precipitation with this trough is currently moving onshore and will spread inland through late morning and make it's way east of the Cascades during the afternoon. This will bring another quick 0.50"-1.00" to areas west of the Cascades, except closer to 0.25" for the Rogue/Shasta/Scott Valleys. While this rainfall may result in some brief ponding on roadways, there are no flooding concerns with this round of rainfall.
Shower coverage will begin to diminish late this afternoon and evening, but showers will continue overnight into Friday morning, mainly across the northern and western areas. Shower activity really diminishes Friday afternoon as upper level ridging builds into the region. Dry conditions are expected to continue into Saturday with guidance trending later with the arrival of the next system. Cold surface high pressure east of the Cascades Friday night will lead to a chilly Saturday morning across the region. Mid to upper teens are forecast east of the Cascades with upper 20s/low 30s for areas south and east of the Umpqua-Rogue Divide. For now, it looks like coastal locations will stay above freezing, but there is about a 10% chance that North Bend could reach down to 32 degrees Saturday morning. Morning temperatures will moderate after Saturday as cloud cover increases late Saturday ahead of the next system. /BR-y
LONG TERM (from Wednesday (12/6) afternoon's AFD)...Saturday through Wednesday...The extended forecast will be relatively quiet compared with the near term. On Saturday, a warm front lifts north of the area and a weakening cold front moves across the region on Sunday. Higher pressure and a thermal trough pattern is expected Monday into Tuesday. A front may brush the area to the north on Wednesday with high pressure rebuilding.
The period with the highest chance of precipitation is Saturday night through Monday morning. Much of this atmospheric river is directed toward Washington with less precipitation across southern Oregon and far northern California. Snow levels will be well above normal for this time of year, above the high passes, until the tail- end on Monday morning as the precipitation is winding down. Also of note, there could be gusty winds east of the Cascades on Saturday ahead of the cold front.
The models are in good agreement with the upper flow pattern for this forecast period. However, there are differences with the strength of the upper ridge Monday through Wednesday, especially by Wednesday. Sandler
Updated 230am Thursday December 7, 2023...A cold front early today and trailing low pressure into early Friday will bring moderate winds, but high and steep seas will persist due to ongoing west swell. Isolated thunderstorms are expected into this evening, with the highest probability north of Cape Blanco. These could produce brief periods of strong winds and sharp wind shifts.
Winds and seas will briefly diminish Friday into early Saturday as high pressure builds in. The next frontal system arrives late Saturday into Sunday, with an initial front focused north of our area Saturday then a stronger disturbance Saturday night into Sunday morning. Gusty south winds and very steep wind-driven seas are expected with a 40 percent chance of gales north of Cape Arago.
A thermal trough is likely to develop along the coast Monday with increasing north winds into Tuesday. Forecast uncertainty increases beyond Tuesday. But, conditions are likely to briefly improve at mid- week with an active pattern resuming late in the week.
NOAA Medford OR Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 4pm PST this afternoon for ORZ029>031.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4am PST Friday above 3500 feet for ORZ027-028.
CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4pm PST this afternoon above 3500 feet for CAZ080-082-083.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4pm PST this afternoon for CAZ085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4am PST Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.