Florence OR to Point St. George between 60 and 150 NM Offshore Forecast
|Tonight...S To Sw Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming W To Nw. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Sat...N To Nw Winds Less Than 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Sat Night...N To Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Sun...N Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Sun Night...N To Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To Less Than 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft.|
|Mon...N Winds Less Than 10 Kt, Becoming Nw. Seas 4 To 5 Ft.|
|Mon Night...Variable Winds Less Than 10 Kt, Becoming W To Sw. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Tue...W To Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S To Sw 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft.|
|Tue Night...S Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 6 To 11 Ft.|
|Wed...S Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 9 To 15 Ft.|
|Wed Night...S To Sw Winds 20 To 30 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 10 To 14 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Medford OR
246pm PDT Fri September 18 2020
The upper low is moving onshore. The location of the upper low is over the northwest part of the forecast areas (northwest Coos County) and this will continue to move northeast this afternoon through tonight. The latest satellite image clearly shows most of the energy out ahead of the upper low (like a pinwheel) which puts most of the action in terms of showers and thunderstorms north of our forecast area. However scattered showers and isolated storms are still a good bet for most of Douglas County and northern Cascades from about Crater Lake north. These areas also have the best chance of getting moderate to heavy showers into early this evening. There is still concern for moderate to heavy rain in a short period of time to set up near or over the burn scars over the Archie Creek Fire and a Flash Flood Watch has been issued. Please see FFAMFR for more details.
Once again we want to remind the folks out there our RADAR at KMAX is currently undergoing the Service Life Extension Program and is not providing data. The data presented on our website are from September 14th. If you find yourself in the unlikely position of being within a warning area, you will not find any current RADAR data from KMAX to compare the warning to. We already have the GOES West Mesosector 1 providing us and you with up to the minute satellite data. Trust that you are indeed in a warning area and take the precautions you need to keep yourself safe before looking for other data.
The upper low will progress through the area tonight and will be east of the Cascades by early Saturday morning. Showers and isolated storms will diminish this evening with showers gradually diminishing in coverage overnight tonight. Showers will linger mainly north of the Umpqua Divide and Cascades tonight.
The upper trough moves east of our area Saturday morning with weak ridging building from the west. Could not rule out a few showers north of the Umpqua Divide and northern Cascades until about the mid morning hours Saturday, otherwise it will be dry with milder temperatures in the afternoon for most inland locations.
Sunday, a weak thermal trough will set up along the coast with increasing offshore flow in southwest Oregon, but winds will not be strong, even over the mid slopes and ridges and will be short lived.
Beyond Sunday, it should remain dry through at least the middle of next week. A weak upper trough and cold front approaches the area Monday, but the main effect will be increasing onshore flow near and at the coast and cooler afternoon temperatures for most inland locations. A stronger front will arrive next Thursday. Unlike the last front from earlier this week and yesterday, we won't have a strong upper ridge in place, instead we'll have a west to southwest flow with the ridge south of our area. Therefore there is a better opportunity for the front to hold together and not weaken, thus resulting in a higher chance for measurable rain.
The front will move through the area Thursday night followed by an upper trough Friday with the chance for post frontal showers. -Petrucelli
Updated 200pm PDT Friday 18 September 2020...Relatively calm conditions with light south winds and seas generally at or below 5 feet will continue through Saturday morning. A thermal trough will build near the coast late Saturday into Sunday, producing gusty north winds and choppy wind driven seas south of Cape Blanco. Although conditions are expected to remain below advisory criteria, winds will be strongest beyond 5 nm from shore. The thermal trough will weaken Monday and winds and seas will subside at that time. Sub-advisory conditions are then expected through Tuesday, then northwest swell will increase Wednesday as a new series of fronts approaches the area. -Spilde
Updated 230pm PDT Friday 18 September 2020...East of the Cascades, some very breezy winds to 40 mph are occuring, especially at the higher elevations. Meanwhile, 20-25 mph wind gusts are expected at some of the medium elevations. Elsewhere, showers and a couple of thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. The wettest storms will be north of the Umpqua Divide and along and west of the Cascades which could still put down some wetting rain, especially the farther north one goes. South of the Umpqua Divide the chances for wetting rains are sharply decreasing, and some of our west side valleys (Rogue Valley) may not even get measurable rain, let alone areas east of the Cascades. Regardless, we will keep LAL 2 for much of the area on the off chance that a stray thunderstorm develops.
The upper low causing these showers and a few storms will exit the area quickly overnight allowing things to clear up and begin drying out tomorrow (a few lingering light showers are possible Saturday morning for the Umpqua Basin and the Cascades north of Crater Lake). Then, light east winds on Saturday night will allow things to dry out toward normal for this time of year. Temperatures will also climb to be near normal by Sunday. Our dry weather will continue into next week, but critical conditions are not expected. A front toward the end of the week could be a bit more promising for rainfall than this system; but things are likely to change between now and then. -Schaaf
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Flash Flood Watch until 8pm PDT this evening for ORZ023-025.
Pacific Coastal Waters...None.