Florence OR to Point St. George between 60 and 150 NM Offshore Forecast
10 - 15
10 - 15
20 - 30
10 - 20
|Today...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 6 To 7 Ft.|
|Tonight...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft.|
|Fri...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming S To Sw 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft.|
|Fri Night...S To Sw Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 9 Ft. Chance Of Rain.|
|Sat...Winds Diminishing To W 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft.|
|Sat Night...W Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas Building To 6 To 10 Ft.|
|Sun...W To Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 8 To 10 Ft.|
|Sun Night...N To Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 9 To 10 Ft.|
|Mon...N Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 9 To 12 Ft.|
|Mon Night...N To Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 10 To 12 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Medford OR
941pm PDT Wednesday Mar 29 2023
After an active afternoon, the evening is looking peaceful across northern California and southern Oregon. Light winds and near- freezing temperatures across the west side and below-freezing temperatures across the east side should persist overnight. Chances of patchy fog along the coast and valley fog in the Illinois and Rogue valleys remain in he forecast model guidance shows chances have dropped significantly.
We are on track for a quiet Thursday morning, although precipitation chances do rise over the Oregon coast and the Cascades Thursday afternoon and evening as an upper level shortwave passes to the north. Another upper level trough approaches from the west Friday morning, bringing more precipitation and occasional gusty winds to the area through the weekend. Currently, impactful conditions appear to be limited to the Cascades but this could change as future conditions become more concrete. -TAD
Updated 830pm PDT Wednesday, March 29, 2023...High and very steep seas will continue through this evening as fresh swell from the last storm system moves through the waters. We'll see seas lower Thursday into Thursday night as high pressure builds in briefly. The next low has the potential to bring gales into the waters Friday evening and Friday night. The chance of gale force winds is about 50 to 60 percent, so winds could end up being on the weaker side. In any case, seas around 10 feet are anticipated to persist into the weekend.
/Issued 251pm PDT Wednesday Mar 29 2023/
Short term...With warming temperatures bringing steeper lapse rates and a short wave moving through shower have redeveloped across the region this afternoon as expected. However, with dry lower levels with the dewpoint at Medford at 27 this afternoon, only light amounts are expected for other than the heaviest showers. This will also lessen the amounts and areal coverage of fog tonight into the morning. As the upper low that brought repeated rounds of precipitation continues it's trek south into southern California by Thursday morning, a weak short wave slides down the back of the offshore ridge, bringing showers as lapse rates increase again with warming. The bulk of these showers will be at the coast and coastal ranges, and the Cascades.
The upper ridge flattens, and then transforms into a weak upper trough with the next, better organized system moves in Friday afternoon.
Saturday through Wednesday. Yet another broad Pacific will overtake the region this weekend with a 120+ kt upper jet digging into southern Oregon Saturday, then eventually south into Northern California Sunday-Monday. This will make for a cool and wet weekend for most of the area. For the mountains and east, the snow levels will be low enough to impact the majority of the area, and the latest ensemble probabilities indicate that areas from Willamette Pass to Crater Lake have an 80-100% chance of at least another foot of snow by early Monday. Parts of the Curry Coast range and western through south-central Siskiyou County are similar. For the inland west side, snow levels look like they'll start near 3000 feet Saturday then lower to near 2000 feet Sunday. Some areas down to 2000 feet may see some accumulation, so winter travel is possible for the low elevation passes Sunday.
The upper trough should keep cold cyclonic flow over the region with continued rain and snow showers through late Tuesday. Near- freezing or sub-freezing morning temperatures also look like a good bet for much of the western valleys for successive days beginning Monday. The majority of the ensemble means suggest the trough axis will head east Wednesday into Thursday with drier, warmer ridging moving in, at least for a short time. Stavish
AVIATION...30/00Z TAFs...Current conditions are mostly VFR, but northeast flow is moving some shower activity across areas of southwest Oregon. Isolated spots of 30-40 dBZ reflectivity are indicating some more active spots, although those readings do not persist for long. But the possibility for some stronger shower activity is present. Chances of precipitation do drop through the evening and overnight, only to rise once again near Thursday afternoon. Current snow levels of 4500 feet will limit the chance of snow showers to the highest elevations of the Cascades. Levels will drop to 2500 feet overnight, then rise back to 3000 feet Thursday afternoon.
As of 0Z, Roseburg and Medford are seeing some gusty winds, likely outflow from nearby showers. These winds are not expected to last. One additional note for tonight is the chance of valley fog. Current model guidance indicates the possibility of patchy fog along the coast north of Cape Blanco as well as in portions of the Umpqua, Illinois, and Rogue valleys. These chances could change depending on cloud cover and atmospheric mixing, but are worth noting. -TAD
Updated 300pm PDT Wednesday, March 29, 2023...High and very steep seas will continue through this evening as fresh swell from the last storm system moves through the waters. We'll see seas lower Thursday into Thursday night as high pressure builds in briefly. The next low has the potential to bring gales into the waters Friday evening and Friday night. The chance of gale force winds is about 50 to 60 percent, so winds could end up being on the weaker side. In any case, seas around 10 feet are anticipated to persist into the weekend.
NOAA Medford OR Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
OR...Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through late Sunday night above 2500 feet for ORZ025-026.
Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through late Sunday night for ORZ027-028.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11pm PDT this evening for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for PZZ350-356-370-376.