Leeward Islands Offshore Forecast
| Today...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 7 To 10 Ft In Ne To E Swell. |
| Tonight...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 7 To 10 Ft In E Swell. |
| Fri...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft In E Swell. Scattered Showers. |
| Fri Night...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft In E Swell. |
| Sat...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft In The Caribbean, And 6 To 9 Ft In The Atlc. |
| Sat Night...Ne To E Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft In The Caribbean, And 7 To 10 Ft In The Atlc. |
| Sun...E Winds 20 Kt. Seas 6 To 8 Ft In The Caribbean, And 7 To 11 Ft In The Atlc. |
| Sun Night...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 6 To 8 Ft In The Caribbean, And 7 To 11 Ft In The Atlc. |
| Mon...E Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft In The Caribbean, And 7 To 10 Ft In The Atlc. |
| Mon Night...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft In E Swell. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 520am AST Thu Jan 23 2025 Synopsis A weak surface trough crossing the region will continue to promote shower activity across the islands through the rest of the morning hours, before a drier air mass fills in from the east later this afternoon. Trade wind perturbations will continue to move from time to time during the next few days, promoting an advective pattern with showers moving over the USVI and eastern sections of PR during the night. Choppy wind-driven to hazardous seas will persist for the rest of the week, maintaining dangerous conditions for small craft and promoting life-threatening rip currents. An induced surface trough is expected to move over the area on Sunday. .SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday... Rainfall activity persisted overnight along northern/eastern Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and local waters. The 00z sounding showed an increase of moisture content in the lower levels, with PWAT (Precipitable Water) values of 1.63 inches, compared to the 12z values (1.29 in). Additionally, satellite-derived products show above- normal values across the region, as the perturbation in the trades arrived overnight. Doppler Radar rainfall estimates from 0.2 to 0.5 inches over north-central and eastern Puerto Rico. Rain gauges over the aforementioned areas reported 0.1 - 0.9 inches while St. Croix reported up to 0.5 inches of precipitation. A variable weather pattern will prevail for the latter part of the workweek into the weekend. The surface high pressure in the Central Atlantic will linger for the next few days, promoting strong trade winds. The mid-to-high level ridge northeast of the region will continue to support stable conditions aloft. PWAT (Precipitable Water) values will decrease once again as a drier air mass will move across the area today, and strong trade winds will promote breezy conditions. However, above-normal values are expected later tonight and early on Friday, as another perturbation in the trades moves across the region, bringing light to moderate showers mainly over eastern Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the USVI. Ponding of water in roadways, urban, and poorly drained areas is likely. This pattern will repeat on Friday into Sunday, with mostly fair conditions during the day and occasional passing showers overnight. The combination of E-ESE low-level winds, above-normal 925 mb winds, and high moisture content will bring above climatological normal temperatures today. Max temperatures in urban and coastal areas are expected from mid to upper 80s with localized areas observing low 90s. Interior sections will most likely observe temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. Long Term Sunday through Thursday... A deep-layered ridge is expected to persist over the Tropical Atlantic throughout the long-term period. However, a TUTT induced surface trough is expected to reach the area from the east on Sunday, increasing shower activity through early Monday morning. An upper level trough is expected to move over the area on Tuesday, and the 500 mb temperatures are forecast to drop near minus 7C, increasing instability aloft. However, the precipitable water content is forecast to remain at normal to below normal levels(under 1.25 inches) during the first part of the workweek, but increasing to normal to above normal levels (1.50-1.75 inches) by Thursday as another low-level trough develops over the eastern Caribbean. Normal to above-normal temperatures are expected to prevail throughout most of the long-term period, particularly in the coastal and lower elevations of the islands. Daytime highs will range from the mid to upper 80s and low 90s in coastal and urban areas, while the mountains will experience highs in the mid to upper 70s. Minimum temperatures will range from the low 60s in the higher elevations to the mid and upper 70s in the lower elevations of the islands. Marine A surface high pressure across the central Atlantic will support moderate to locally fresh easterlies for the next several days. Choppy wind-driven to hazardous seas for small craft will continue across portions of most local waters and passages. Small craft advisory conditions are likely to continue through the end of the week for some offshore areas. Beach Forecast A High Rip Current Risk remains in effect for the northern and eastern beaches of PR, Culebra, and St. Croix through the end of the workweek. A pulse of a small long-period northwesterly may extend the areal coverage of the life-threatening rip currents to Rincon and Aguada on Friday. .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for PRZ001-002- 005-008-012. VI...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for VIZ002. AM...Small Craft Advisory until noon AST Saturday for AMZ711-723. |