Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas between 150 and 250 NM Offshore Forecast
|Tonight...N To Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming N 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 9 To 15 Ft.|
|Fri...N To Ne Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming E To Ne. Seas 11 To 14 Ft.|
|Fri Night...Variable Winds Less Than 10 Kt, Becoming Sw. Seas 7 To 11 Ft.|
|Sat...Sw Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 6 To 11 Ft.|
|Sat Night...W Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 7 To 13 Ft.|
|Sun...W Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 10 To 16 Ft.|
|Sun Night...W Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 9 To 13 Ft.|
|Mon...W To Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 6 To 8 Ft.|
|Mon Night...W To Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming N To Nw 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft.|
|Tue...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft.|
|Tue Night...N Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
357pm PST Thu Dec 1 2022
Breezy to gusty winds and widespread rain will impact the Bay Area and Central Coast on Thursday with drying conditions by tonight. Mainly dry and cold on Friday before rain returns for the upcoming weekend. Cold and dry weather returns early next week.
As of 02:44pm PST Thursday...The Bay Area and Central Coast are currently split regarding rain this afternoon. North of SFO is drying out, but areas to the south are very wet. A cold front, which had a nice NCFR signature earlier today, continues to march southward. Yesterday it looked like the front would just blast right through the forecast area, but today it is trending slower. As of this discussion the cold front is moving through Monterey Bay. The intensity of the frontal passage may have eased on radar a tad, but still moderate to locally heavy rain is occurring. The front will continue to move S and E through this afternoon and early evening. The drying trend up north will also spread S and E through this evening. There is still a chance for a few isolated showers behind the front early this evening, but not widespread activity. In addition to the rain the passing front is still producing some breezy to gusty winds with gusts 25-40 mph. These totals will change because it's still rain, but so far rainfall amounts are generally 0.25-1.00" with higher amounts 1.5-2" North Bay Mts, Santa Cruz Mts.
Once the precipitation finally ends the next weather impact will be temperatures tonight and early Friday morning. First and foremost, a Freeze Warning remains in effect for interior N Bay and Southern Monterey/San Benito. Given the potentially wet/damp conditions it will "feel" even colder. Simply put, the vulnerable population or those without shelter will be impacted the most. Kind of ironic that today is the first day of meteorological winter and tonight could end up being the coldest night of the season so far. In fact, there's a 70% chance that San Francisco DT could actually set a record (forecast is 38 deg record is 40 deg). Interior valleys will see more widespread 20s to lower 30s and coast/bays will see more widespread 30s. Frost will be possible and even some black ice given the recent rain.
Dry and cool weather is expected on Friday and early Friday night.
After a brief break in the precipitation the next round of rain begins to arrive Friday night. A moisture plume lurking off the SoCal (remnants of current system) will move north over the Central Coast Friday night as Saturday. Model guidance, ensembles and deterministic, have been trending wetter for the Saturday system. Atmospheric Guidance now puts the Santa Lucia Range in the thresholds for a weak AR. Somewhat unusual to have a moisture AR plume move in from the south. The real question is, how far north does it go? Does it mainly cause heavier precipitation just over the Santa Lucia Range or drift north to the Santa Cruz Mts too? Highest confidence for Santa Lucia, but some probabilistic guidance does show heavier rain reaching the Santa Cruz Mts. The bigger determining factor will be an approaching upper level trough from the north Saturday into Sunday. The timing of this feature will help or hurt the north progression. This is all for the heaviest rain, but everywhere in the forecast area should see some rain Saturday. By the time the next upper level trough arrives some more instability will be present to allow for a few isolated thunderstorms on Sunday. Showers will linger into Monday. Rainfall totals for the weekend: Santa Lucia 2-5" with most other areas 0.75-1.5". WPC has much of the Central Coast in an excessive rainfall outlook for the weekend too.
Dry and cooler weather return for next week.
Daily Record Low Temperatures for December 2nd.
12/02 Record Low Record Year
Santa Rosa coop 25 1906 Kentfield 28 1906 Napa State Hospital 28 1932, 1928 Richmond 38 2006, 1973, 1967 Livermore coop 26 1906 San Francisco downtown 40 2009, 1906 SFO Airport 37 1967 Redwood City 30 1936 Half Moon Bay 32 2004 Oakland Museum 38 1973 San Jose 26 1906 Gilroy 26 1990 Salinas Airport 30 2004, 1990, 1936, 1934 King City 24 1957, 1933
as of 03:40pm PST Thursday...A cold front continues to move through the southern waters bringing locally strong gusty winds and heavy rain along the front. Winds are southerly ahead of the front and northwesterly behind the front. Breezy winds will diminish tonight as the front moves south. Northwest swell continues to build through the waters today bringing hazardous seas for smaller vessels. A low pressure system over the eastern Pacific will then potentially deepen and bring another round of rain and increasing winds as it approaches the Bay Area Saturday and Sunday.
NOAA San Francisco Bay Area Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Freeze Warning...CAZ504-506-514-516>518 Small Craft Advisory...Point Arena to Point Reyes 0-10nm until 3am
Small Craft Advisory...Point Arena to Pigeon Point 10-60nm until 3am
Small Craft Advisory...Pigeon Point to Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm until 3am
Small Craft Advisory...Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm