Marine Weather Net

Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas between 150 and 250 NM Offshore Forecast


TODAY

SW
WINDS
20 - 30
KNOTS

TONIGHT

NW
WINDS
30 - 40
KNOTS

SAT

N
WINDS
30 - 40
KNOTS

SAT NIGHT

N
WINDS
25 - 35
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
PZZ930 Forecast Issued: 307 AM PDT Fri Mar 29 2024

GALE WARNING
Today...Sw Winds 20 To 30 Kt, Becoming W To Sw 35 To 45 Kt. Seas 13 To 17 Ft, Building To 15 To 25 Ft. Rain.
Tonight...W To Nw Winds 35 To 45 Kt, Becoming N To Nw 30 To 40 Kt. Seas 17 To 26 Ft. Rain. Scattered Showers And Tstms.
Sat...N Winds 30 To 40 Kt. Seas 15 To 22 Ft. Scattered Showers And Tstms.
Sat Night...N Winds 25 To 35 Kt. Seas 14 To 20 Ft. Scattered Showers.
Sun...N To Nw Winds 25 To 30 Kt. Seas 13 To 19 Ft.
Sun Night...N To Nw Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 12 To 13 Ft.
Mon...N Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 9 To 12 Ft.
Mon Night...N Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 7 To 9 Ft.
Tue...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 6 To 8 Ft.
Tue Night...N To Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 6 To 7 Ft.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA 454am PDT Fri Mar 29 2024

.SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 230am PDT Fri Mar 29 2024

Key Points: * Impactful weather system today into Saturday * Moderate wind and water impacts anticipated * Strong wind gusts may cause tree and power line damage * Minor flooding potential from locally heavy rainfall * Isolated thunderstorms with lightning and small hail * Peak impacts this afternoon into Saturday evening

Weather Overview:

A cyclonic flow pattern prevails aloft across the northeast Pacific early this morning. Two low pressure systems are evident -- one west of Washington and another located around 400 nm west of the Redwood Coast. A consensus of the forecast models suggest the lower latitude system will become the prevailing low as it drops southeast towards the northern/central CA coast. The surface low will subsequently deepen to around 995 mb as it locates just east of the Bay Area by this evening. This dynamic system will bring impacts to the region in the form of strong gusty winds, periods of moderate to heavy rainfall, and thunderstorms through the forecast period. Below is a timeline of our expectations for today into tonight.

This Morning:

Scattered showers will increase in coverage across the Bay Area during the mid to late morning hours as warm advection aloft becomes the primary forcing mechanism for ascent. Breezy southerly winds will begin to pick up as well, especially along the coast and within the coastal ranges of the Bay Area. Showers should be light to moderate through most of this period, with heavier showers approaching the Bay Area as afternoon approaches. The primary impacts during this period should be wet roadways along the with the potential for a few branches down due to the breezy winds.

This Afternoon and Evening:

This will be prime time for the greatest impacts. Look for the deepening surface low to wobble towards the coast as a surface warm front lifts north early in the period before a cold front moves onshore during the late afternoon to early evening. Coverage and intensity of showers should increase by early afternoon with elevated instability providing for isolated thunderstorm potential as well. A 50 kt southerly low-level jet (LLJ) will impinge on coastal portions of the region as well with an uptick in strong and gusty gradient winds occurring. In addition the higher resolution convection allowing models are suggestive of a conditional risk for mixing these stronger winds to the surface in convection particularly as the main frontal band moves onshore during the early to mid afternoon hours. As mentioned instability is sufficient for thunderstorm development as early as this afternoon, but actually peaks within the colder and unstable airmass following the cold frontal passage. Regardless, thunderstorm hazards will exist in the form of occasional lightning, brief heavy rain, gusty to perhaps locally damaging winds, and small hail. Given the strong low-level wind fields and sufficient low-level directional shear can't rule out the potential for a landfalling waterspout as well, especially this afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue within the post-frontal environment overnight as the cold-core low remains in the vicinity. Now that we've outlined the weather setup here's a quick breakdown on potential hazards forToday And Tonight
* Strong gusty winds with tree and power line damage possible * Locally heavy rainfall leading to urban/street flooding * Isolated thunderstorms with lightning, wind, and small hail * Conditional risk for landfalling waterspout

Stay weather aware today and keep up with forecast changes.

Long Term
(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 230am PDT Fri Mar 29 2024

Saturday into Sunday morning:

While the weakening surface low will depart to our south the region remains under the influence of the cold-core upper low. This means we'll see plentiful showers and isolated thunderstorms on Saturday. The day won't be a total washout (we'll probably even see some sunshine at times), but watch out because when it rains, it pours (as they say). So watch out for lightning, brief locally heavy rainfall, and small hail as potential hazards. This risk is greatest on Saturday afternoon, with coverage continuing overnight. By Sunday morning look for precipitation to have largely ended for most areas outside of perhaps the Santa Lucias and southern Diablo range. Overall amounts should be lighter compared to during Friday/Friday night, but locally heavy amounts could cause minor flooding concerns if a heavier shower or storm traverses an urban or hydrologically sensitive area. Winds should be quite a bit lower as well as the pressure gradient relaxes. For temperatures, they'll be a little on the cool side with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s and lows mostly in the 40s.

Late Sunday through Thursday:

High pressure builds into the region with dry conditions and a warming trend through mid week. Expect a cooling trend by late week as upstream troughing traverses the Pacific Northwest states. A little light precipitation may accompany this feature as well but it doesn't appear to be anything noteworthy at this point.

Marine
(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 445am PDT Fri Mar 29 2024

A strengthening low pressure system over the eastern Pacific will continue moving toward California resulting in southerly gales and moderate to heavy rain developing today. Cold, unstable air aloft with the low will also result in a slight chance to chance of thunderstorms later today, tonight and Saturday. A high pressure system will build in behind the low late in the weekend and early next week bringing drier, milder conditions to the area.

NOAA San Francisco Bay Area Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CA...Wind Advisory from 11am this morning to 5am PDT Saturday for CAZ006-504-509-510-512-514>516-518-528>530.

Wind Advisory from 8am this morning to 3am PDT Saturday for CAZ502-503-505.

High Wind Warning from 11am this morning to 9pm PDT this evening for CAZ517.

Wind Advisory from 9pm this evening to 5am PDT Saturday for CAZ517.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3pm this afternoon to 9pm PDT this evening for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory from 9am this morning to 3pm PDT this afternoon for Mry Bay.

Gale Warning from 3pm this afternoon to 3am PDT Saturday for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 9am PDT this morning for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning from 9am this morning to 3pm PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning from 9am this morning to 9pm PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.