Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas between 150 and 250 NM Offshore Forecast
| Tonight...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N To Nw 5 To 15 Kt, Then, Becoming N 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 7 To 9 Ft. |
| Mon...N To Ne Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 8 To 10 Ft. |
| Mon Night...Ne Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 8 To 11 Ft. |
| Tue...N Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 8 To 12 Ft. Chance Of Rain, Then Isolated Showers. |
| Tue Night...Nw Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 10 To 13 Ft. |
| Wed...Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 9 To 11 Ft. |
| Wed Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 8 To 9 Ft. |
| Thu...N To Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 8 To 10 Ft. |
| Thu Night...N Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 8 To 10 Ft. |
| Fri...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 9 To 10 Ft. |
| Fri Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 10 To 11 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 236pm PST Sunday Feb 8 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, Long Term .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 234pm PST Sunday Feb 8 2026 - Rain chances (30-50%) through this evening mainly confined to northern portions of Sonoma county. - Wetting rains expected Tuesday into Wednesday and again next weekend. - Active weather pattern begins this weekend and continues through next week. .SHORT TERM... Issued at 234pm PST Sunday Feb 8 2026 (This evening through Monday) The main cold front this afternoon is visible on satellite as a line of cumulus that extends from Mendocino county southwest out into the Pac Ocean. The interesting feature though is the atmospheric bore that has ripping out ahead of the cold front, running out on top of the marine layer. As it moved across Point Reyes tower camera, the stratus came through with a bit of drizzle as well. RAP Bufkit soundings in the Bay area look to have picked up on this bit of moisture, with SFO/OAK/SJC all showing a brief uptick in saturation in the low level saturation, so you can't rule out a brief hit of stratus/drizzle in the Bay area as this bore moves in, though likely fizzles out as it begins to interact with the land. As for the main precipitation shield with this front, water vapor imagery shows a deep plume of moisture moving into Oregon and Washington, with models continuing to keep the main synoptically forced rain region remaining farther norther. In addition, low and mid-level simulated satellite imagery from special WOFs runs shows a wedge of dry air moving in across central California to the south of the main moisture plume up in Ore/Wash. This dry air shows up in forecast soundings as a wedge of very dry air from h85 to h7 that will keep it dry through this area. Also drying out on forecast soundings are the low levels, with fog looking much less certain tonight than what we had this morning. Adding a layer of complexity to the fog potential is that we will have that band of mid/upper clouds streaming south through the night that could really limit radiational fog potential for the north bay. Other than the potential for mid/upper clouds, Monday looks like another pleasant weather day before more active weather finally makes a return. Long Term Issued at 234pm PST Sunday Feb 8 2026 (Monday night through next Saturday) For Tuesday into Wednesday, the GFS (Global Forecast System) has followed the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) in being much stronger with the system that moves into the California coast, with closed lows from the surface up to h5. This includes 30-40 kt southerly jets at 925 and 850 mb that will crash into the Bay area that will help push a stronger moisture surge into the area, with a good wetting rain expected Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Precip amounts continue to creep up with this event, with most lower elevations forecast to get 0.5" to 0.75" of rain, with up to 1.5" of rain in the high elevations of the Big Sur region. Surface troughing will linger through Wednesday night, which will keep some light rain/drizzle going in coastal mountains into early Thursday. Thursday and Friday continue to trend dry as a ridge moves through out ahead of our weekend trough that will be developing in the northeast Pac. As for that weekend trough, there are timing differences with when the firehose of moisture arrives, but whether it arrives Saturday afternoon (GFS/GEFS) or Saturday night (ECMWF/EPS), everything ends up in the same spot, a very wet end to next weekend, with Probability of Precipitation in excess of 80% already in place a week out, indicative of this being a fairly predictable event. This will just be the start of a wet pattern, with numerous rounds of rain continuing through the following work week. As for snow potential, we do see freezing levels come down this weekend, but from the perspective of the MTR area, it's only the tops of our tallest peaks that show some snow potential. Freezing levels look to take a further step down next week (week of 2/16), which is when maybe we could see freezing levels low enough to start getting into the MTR mountains. Marine (Today through Friday) Issued at 0859am PST Sunday Feb 8 2026 A cold front will move southeastward over the coastal waters and bays tonight and early Monday. Seas will continue moderate today. Northwest winds will strengthen to a fresh to strong breeze today into Monday. A low pressure system will then approach from the west bringing rain to the coastal waters and bays Tuesday through Wednesday. NOAA San Francisco Bay Area Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9pm PST Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9pm this evening to 9pm PST Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 9pm this evening to 3pm PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. x.com/nwsbayarea |
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