Marine Weather Net

Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas between 150 and 250 NM Offshore Forecast


TODAY

N
WINDS
10 - 20
KNOTS

TONIGHT

N
WINDS
5 - 15
KNOTS

SAT

N
WINDS
5 - 15
KNOTS

SAT NIGHT

NW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
PZZ930 Forecast Issued: 224 AM PDT Fri Sep 24 2021

Today...N Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft. Chance Of Rain.
Tonight...N Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 6 To 7 Ft.
Sat...N Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming N To Nw 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft.
Sat Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft.
Sun...N To Nw Winds Less Than 10 Kt. Seas 6 To 7 Ft.
Sun Night...Variable Winds Less Than 10 Kt, Becoming W To Sw. Seas 6 To 7 Ft.
Mon...W To Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft.
Mon Night...N To Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 7 To 12 Ft.
Tue...N Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 9 To 13 Ft.
Tue Night...N Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 10 To 12 Ft.
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852 AM PST Tue Nov 30 2021
Synopsis for the Central California Coast and Bays Including the Monterey Bay, Greater Farallones and Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuaries - PZZ500
Breezy to locally gusty notherly winds today, especially across the outer waters and near coastal jets. Stronger gusts may generate steep, fresh swell that could create hazardous conditions for smaller vessels. Winds diminish tonight into tomorrow with lighter northerly winds offshore and offshore winds nearshore and through coastal gaps on Wednesday. Meanwhile, a series of moderate period northwest swell prevails through the week.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
950am PST Tuesday Nov 30 2021

Synopsis
Patchy dense fog coast and valleys this morning otherwise mostly sunny and seasonably mild today. Offshore winds in the hills tonight will keep overnight temperatures mild in the hills leading to another day of above normal highs on Wednesday. Continued mild Thursday with a modest cooling trend into the weekend but temperatures still above seasonable normals and dry through the weekend.

As of 07:29am PST Tuesday...Made an early morning adjustment to the forecast by nudging up daytime highs for today and tomorrow, especially around Santa Cruz and Monterey counties. Looking at the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Extreme Forecast Index, Monterey County continues to show that max temperatures on Dec 1 will be at least in the 90th percentile. Much of Santa Cruz county is in the 80th percentile. For our entire CWA, we should see widespread 70s on Wednesday putting daytime highs around 8-15 degrees above normal. We will likely see widespread low 80s for Santa Cruz and Monterey counties which puts daytime highs 10-20 degrees above normal.

As for the patchy dense fog, it has dissipated near Santa Rosa, but is still lingering near Palo Alto, Fremont, and Napa among other isolated spots near the Bay.

As of 3:19am PST Tuesday...Patchy dense fog is the only short term concern early this morning. Overnight we've had dense fog reported at Santa Rosa, Napa, Half Moon Bay and Monterey with clear conditions elsewhere. The fog bank over the ocean remains shallow this morning and will hang along the San Mateo county beaches. Up in the hills we have some mild temperatures with temps still hovering in the mid 60s above 1500 feet from Sonoma to Monterey. A fairly mild morning for late November with the coldest valleys generally in the low to mid 40s. Outside of hazy conditions inside the Bay expect another mostly sunny and pleasant day across the Bay Area with temps upper 60s to lower 70s.

For tonight we'll see a little burst of offshore winds across the North and East Bay hills. Nothing too strong but it'll keep the hills mild again tonight and dry the airmass aloft. If it wasn't for our early fall rains we could be looking at some fire weather concerns but thats not the case for now. As always this time of year the question will be if the offshore winds can mix down into the valleys and maximize the adiabatic warming of the 850 mb temps. The short days and strong valley inversions across the North Bay can make that difficult but still expect temps well into the upper 60s and lower 70s for Weds afternoon across the Bay Area with some 80s for the Central Coast.

The offshore winds ease by Thursday allowing for temps to cool a few degrees but remain above seasonal norms for the beginning of December.

The forecast remains dry through this weekend as we are now on the lookout for our next chance of rain.

Models indicate a potential inside slider type event by later next Monday or Tuesday. Current model simulations would suggest a chance for some light rain showers across the North Bay and the NBM Probability of Precipitation are in the 20-30% range which seems about right. Should the precipitation chances pan out amounts would be light under this type of pattern but more importantly it may signal a change in the pattern.

Latest cluster analysis suggests that ridging scenario may last through much of next week. Of course we all see the deterministic runs that break down the ridge more aggressively. We continue to see signs with about 20-50% of the ensemble members showing the return of precipitation chances from roughly Dec 10-14th. The updated PNA outlooks continue to show the teleconnection trending negative while the MJO wants to get active out in phase 7. Yes the models have been trying to flip the pattern in the extended for a long time now so confidence remains tempered. We all know we cant keep cashing checks on the October rain and we need to get into a new storm cycle. That being said its still late November and if we can get some rain chances going by mid December that would fit climatology. Will note that the updated cfs weeklies support increased rain chances for the 2nd half of the month with fairly typical La Nina signal of significant rain over the PacNW then tapering from NorCal to Central Cost with little or nothing for SoCal. Will be monitoring long range trends closely over the next week to see if confidence can begin to increase.

Marine
as of 09:44am PST Tuesday...Breezy to locally gusty northerly winds today, especially across the outer waters and near coastal jets. Stronger gusts may generate steep, fresh swell that could create hazardous conditions for smaller vessels. Winds diminish tonight into tomorrow with lighter northerly winds offshore and offshore winds nearshore and through coastal gaps on Wednesday. Meanwhile, a series of moderate period northwest swell prevails through the week.

NOAA San Francisco Bay Area Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Today:
Small Craft Advisory...Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
Small Craft Advisory...Point Arena to Pigeon Point 10-60nm
Small Craft Advisory...Point Arena to Point Reyes 0-10nm