Marine Weather Net

Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas between 60 and 150 NM Offshore Forecast


TODAY

NW
WINDS
5 - 15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

NW
WINDS < 10
KNOTS

SAT

VARIABLE
LESS
THAN
5 KNOTS

SAT NIGHT

NW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
PZZ830 Forecast Issued: 224 AM PDT Fri Sep 24 2021

Today...Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To Less Than 10 Kt. Seas 6 To 8 Ft.
Tonight...Nw Winds Less Than 10 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft.
Sat...Variable Winds Less Than 5 Kt, Becoming W To Nw. Seas 5 To 6 Ft.
Sat Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft.
Sun...N To Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 6 To 7 Ft.
Sun Night...N To Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 6 To 7 Ft.
Mon...N To Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming W To Nw. Seas 5 To 7 Ft.
Mon Night...W To Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N To Nw 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 6 To 10 Ft.
Tue...N Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 8 To 13 Ft.
Tue Night...N To Nw Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 12 To 14 Ft.
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149 PM PST Wed Dec 1 2021
Synopsis for the Central California Coast and Bays Including the Monterey Bay, Greater Farallones and Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuaries - PZZ500
Split flow today with breezy northerly winds in the waters north of Point Reyes and lighter offshore winds along the coastal gaps. A southerly wind reversal along the coast is expected overnight with dense fog conditions expected alongshore of the Big Sur Coast, Monterey Bay, and San Mateo coast by sunrise Thursday. For tomorrow, light split flow once again with southerly winds south of Point Reyes and northerly winds to the North. Meanwhile, a moderate period northwest swell will prevail through the coming days.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
416pm PST Wednesday Dec 1 2021

Synopsis
Some patchy dense fog this morning, mainly near the Delta and North Bay valleys. Otherwise clear with dry offshore winds in the hills. Record or near record warmth many locations this afternoon with highs into the lower 70s Bay Area and some 80s Central Coast to start December. Gradual cooling but still above normal Thursday through Sunday with continued dry high pressure. A slight chance of North Bay light rain showers later Monday but any rainfall will be light.

As of 02:07pm PST Wednesday... Today through Thursday Afternoon:

GOES-WEST Geocolor Imagery is showcasing clear skies across much of the State with the exception being the SoCal Coast; a southerly surge is currently underway off of Point Conception, signaling a shift in the pattern that will become more apparent come tomorrow. For now, clear skies and dry, offshore winds continue to be present in our elevated (>1500 ft) terrain. Winds have steadily dropped off in intensity since sunrise, but are still observing 15-20 kt gusts and localized 25-30 kt gusts up at our highest peaks (eg. Mt. Diablo). Temperatures have also rapidly increased this afternoon, with inland areas like Pinnacles going from the 30s to the 80s F since dawn. Indeed, this current synoptic-scale setup is a textbook mid-level ridge that in the summer months would result in heat events (down to the southerly surge signature that would signal the impending end of the heat event)! Thankfully, the lower-angled sun and shorter days all set the stage for a heat event with widespread 70s and pockets of 80s F across the CWA rather than one where we would be dealing with 90s and 100s F. That being said, the temps we are observing this afternoon are still well above average for this time of the year. Many of the record highs with the potential to be broken this afternoon are ones that were set back in the 1950s (see list below). Needless to say, this heat is unusual for this time of the year, and so the upcoming southerly surge is a welcome signature.

The aforementioned signature off of Point Conception continues to surge northward. The latest HREF ensemble members suggest an arrival of the surge over the Big Sur Coast and Monterey Bay late tonight and into early Thursday morning. This cooler air mass will rapidly spread inland, building our onshore flow and returning our typically- prominent sea breeze signature. As such, expect a cooler day on Thursday with max temps in the 60s F and only a few pockets of 70s F in our far-inland sites above 1000 ft.

Thursday Afternoon Through Sunday:

The upper-level ridge that is promoting our hot Tuesday afternoon will continue.nue to track east and away from the California Coast through the remainder of the week, leaving the environment with a zonal mid-level wind field aloft. All of that is to say we expect seasonal temperatures over the next few days with a persistent sea breeze helping to modulate coastal and near-coastal areas. A weak low pressure system north of the Bay Area will help to promote onshore flow over the North Bay and much of the Bay Area as a result. A slightly different setup will be apparent elsewhere; the lingering influence of the upper-level ridge will still be prominent over some of our far-inland areas south of Santa Cruz despite its departure, and so will see inland temps that are still slightly above average through the remainder of the week. All in all, on track for dry and quiet weather through Sunday.

Extended Outlook:

The latest deterministic solutions highlight a subtle low-level disturbance affecting the North Bay sometime around Monday, with the potential to bring another round of aggressive drizzle to the northwest corner of the Sonoma Coast. Given the northerly trajectory of the storm track, not looking like we will see much, if any, of the moisture associated with the system streaming south of Ukiah. As such, current thinking is we will remain mostly dry from this setup, although a weak, dry cold front will help to modulate our temps once more.

The current synoptic setup over the PAC is one where a prominent jet streak is sitting off the coast of Japan. This jet streak is associated with a 504mb 500mb ridge centered over the Sea of Japan that will gradually stream into the Bering Strait, amplifying the momentum transfer in the mid-levels between Alaska and the NE PAC. The challenge lies in how much this influence will allow for a storm system to track south enough into California that we get another chance for rain. Lots of uncertainty in the latest EC, GFS and Canadian ensemble members, with GFS and Canadian members leaning towards sufficient momentum return over the Northeast PAC. It should be noted that some of the most recent GFS deterministic runs have also picked up on this potential storm track. For now, looking like these rainfall chances would be sometime at and just after Dec 10th. And while such a signature this far out isn't something that warrants great attention (just yet), it does suggest that the synoptic-scale environment has the potential to promote storm tracks that could favor us later in the month. This may seem a little counterintuitive for our region given the La Nina signature across the PAC, but the more prominent precipitation scenario is one we tend to see during a negative PNA signature. Given that the latest EC Weeklies keep signaling a negative PNA, will be interesting to see which teleconnection ends up promoting the most dominant synoptic- scale environment across the PAC. In other words: lots of uncertainty in the winter precipitation outlook for the region but looking a little hopeful, all things considered.

Marine
as of 3:00am PST Wednesday...Expect light northerly winds for Wednesday, with some breezy offshore winds developing out of the Golden Gate gap in the early to mid morning. Meanwhile, a series of moderate period northwest swell prevails through the week.

Record highs for Dec 1st... Santa Rosa 75 in 1959 Kentfield 69 in 1995 Napa 73 in 1959 Richmond 74 in 1956 Livermore 73 in 2013 SF City 71 in 1959 SFO 70 in 1959 Redwood City 73 in 1943 Half Moon Bay 75 in 2002 Oakland City 71 in 2014 San Jose 72 in 1927 Gilroy 75 in 1958 Santa Cruz 80 in 1959 Salinas 83 in 1956 King City 89 in 1926

NOAA San Francisco Bay Area Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Tonight:
None.