Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas between 60 and 150 NM Offshore Forecast
|Today...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 6 To 11 Ft.|
|Tonight...Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 6 To 8 Ft.|
|Sat...N To Nw Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 7 To 10 Ft.|
|Sat Night...N To Nw Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 9 To 15 Ft.|
|Sun...N Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 9 To 14 Ft.|
|Sun Night...N Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 8 To 13 Ft.|
|Mon...N To Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 7 To 11 Ft.|
|Mon Night...N Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 7 To 10 Ft.|
|Tue...N Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 7 To 9 Ft.|
|Tue Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 7 To 9 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1136am PDT Fri September 29 2023
.SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 947am PDT Fri September 29 2023
Coastal stratus is beginning to push inland this morning in the SF Bay Area ahead an approaching cold front. This fast moving front is expected to reach the SF Bay Area by tonight. Precipitation is most likely overnight into Sat morning. Anticipated accumulation amounts are more or less holding steady with about .15" possible along the central coast, 0.05" near the SF Bay, and not much more than a trace expected in the north Bay. The highest accumulation will be in the coastal mountains of Monterey and Santa Cruz counties. This front will also bring wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph to the Bay Area this afternoon. Strongest gusts of 40 mph are possible across higher elevations as well as favored coastal gaps and mountain passes.
(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 204am PDT Fri September 29 2023
Showers are expected to move through early Saturday morning developing mostly south of the Golden Gate. Forecasted rainfall amounts have been trending lower, but 40-70% Probability of Precipitation from the SF Peninsula southward persist. Forecast now calls for 0.10"-0.25" for the Santa Cruz Mtns, Diablo Range, and Santa Lucias. Lower elevations of the Bay Area will most likely see a few hundredths of an inch while the Central Coast will get closer to 0.10". North Bay likely won't see much rain from this initial push, but may get some light precipitation on the backside of the surface low Sat afternoon.
While the chance was already small, it's looking less likely for thunderstorms now across the southern Monterey/San Benito counties. NBM has reduced the chance of thunder to a 5-10% chance. Forecast CAM soundings for the southern cwa are not looking overly impressive either, with shallow MUCAPE ~100-150 J/kg on Saturday morning. However, still can't rule out a rumble of thunder or two or a cell that has higher rain rates. Rain chances across the Central Coast diminish by Sat afternoon, but some lingering post- frontal showers possible.
Upper low will move east into the Great Basin Sun-Mon, which will prompt strong ridge from the E Pacific to nudge in. During this transitionary period, breezy northerly winds will set up across the Sac Valley and interior portions of our area (E Napa Co, East Bay Hills, Diablo Range) Sunday morning-afternoon. Lingering northerly winds are also possible Monday, but strongest N winds expected Sun. Models continue to get a handle on how much moisture/qpf we will get, so lower confidence in regards to fire weather risk for now.
High pressure will continue to build next week, becoming the dominant synoptic feature over much of the western US. This pattern change which will prompt a warming trend through the end of the week with widespread onshore flow and a more robust marine layer will redeveloping.
(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 947am PDT Fri September 29 2023
Fresh to strong winds have decreased across the majority of the marine zones north of Monterey Bay. The Cape San Martin buoy (46013) continues to report strong NNW winds and rough seas. These winds are about 10 kts higher than previously forecast, and adjustments have been made to the new forecast accordingly. Winds will briefly decrease to gentle to moderate across the area tonight through Sat morning as seas abate. Encroaching high pressure from the Pacific will enhance the pressure gradient and support a new pulse of fresh to strong northerlies across the coastal zones Sat-Sun. During this time, seas will build to very rough in the northern zones in a combination of rough wind wave and moderate N swell.
NOAA San Francisco Bay Area Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3am PDT Saturday for PZZ530.
Small Craft Advisory until 9pm PDT this evening for PZZ535.
Gale Warning until 9pm PDT this evening for PZZ565.
Small Craft Advisory from 9pm this evening to 3pm PDT Saturday for PZZ570.
Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night for PZZ570.
Small Craft Advisory from 3am Saturday to 3am PDT Sunday for PZZ575.