Point Arena to Pigeon Point between 150 and 250 NM Offshore Forecast
|Today...N Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 12 To 16 Ft.|
|Tonight...N Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 10 To 15 Ft.|
|Sun...N Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 8 To 13 Ft.|
|Sun Night...N Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming N To Nw 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft.|
|Mon...W To Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming N To Nw 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft.|
|Mon Night...N To Nw Winds 20 To 30 Kt, Becoming Ne. Seas 9 To 15 Ft.|
|Tue...Ne Winds 15 To 25 Kt, Becoming N. Seas 9 To 15 Ft.|
|Tue Night...N Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 11 To 14 Ft.|
|Wed...N To Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming W To Nw 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 9 To 13 Ft.|
|Wed Night...W To Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 9 To 10 Ft.|
|902 AM PST Sat Feb 27 2021 .Synopsis for the Central California Coast and Bays Including the Monterey Bay...Greater Farallones...and Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuaries... Gale force northwest winds will continue over the waters through the day before diminishing from the coast towards the outer waters tonight. These winds will generate steep wind waves through tonight and bring hazardous conditions for smaller vessels. Winds weaken significantly by Sunday, but remain breezy in the northern outer waters. A moderate period northwest swell persists through the weekend.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
949am PST Sat Feb 27 2021
Mild afternoons, cool nights, and dry weather conditions will persist through the weekend. Locally gusty offshore winds are expected from late tonight through Sunday morning, mainly at higher elevations. Much of the San Francisco Bay Area and Central Coast is looking to remain dry through at least the middle of next week before rain chances potentially return late in the week.
as of 08:55am PST Saturday...Mt. Diablo continues to gust around 45-50mph this morning as northerly flow dominates the low-to-mid levels across the region. Thankfully, these gusty conditions have remained predominantly confined above 2500ft, with the foothills observing much lower wind gusts ranging only in the teens and the coast observing calm to light winds since dawn. The latest GOES-WEST geocolor imagery paints a transparent picture across the state, with northerly flow and low-level subsidence impeding the development of any clouds overhead. As such, currently on track for a mild day from the coast to the interior, with winds at the highest elevations subsiding during the day before ramping up again later this afternoon and through the evening.
have allowed temperatures to back off into the 40s for most areas around the Bay Area and Central Coast. Overnight lows will stick to the 40s for coastal areas, but farther inland and into the valleys, expect more areas in the mid 30s. While these interior valleys are seeing a break from the winds, higher peaks and coastal areas are continuing to see gusts from 30 to 40 mph. As a trough continues to build in the Great Basin, these winds look to persist and begin to affect more areas into the late morning and become more widespread for Saturday afternoon.
Saturday afternoon continues to look dry, windy, and mild with highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Saturday evening is set to offer another batch of stronger winds, but the strongest gusts will be limited to the higher peaks. A few favored peaks in the North Bay Mtns and East Bay Hills may see above 60 mph gusts, but most mid to lower elevations will see gusts peaking at 25 to 35 mph. These winds look to last into early Sunday morning but will steadily decrease into the day.
Offshore flow will continue to keep things dry for Sunday with mostly around average temperatures forecasted, and a few downslope areas getting slightly above average highs. Expect highs in the mid to upper 60s and maybe a few 70s.
The main argument in the forecast remains with the rain potential into the beginning of the next work week. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and its ensemble members, along with the NAM family are keeping an approaching low offshore while the GFS pushes the low inland: causing widespread rain chances. Confidence in the GFS output is poor as its ensemble members seem to also disagree with the deterministic model. The official forecast is currently reflecting the output from the ECMWF and its ensemble members, which keeps rain chances out of the forecast until the end of the work week.
The GFS seems to fall in line for next weekend, as model and ensemble agreement greatly improves for weekend moisture. The main argument between the GFS and the ECMWF will be on the timing of these rain chances. Where the GFS offers rain Friday and the ECMWF holds off until early Saturday. For now the GFS and the National Blend are in agreement for Friday's chances, and the official forecast sides with those chances. While this agreement starts off well for the weekend forecast, the models begin to differ again Sunday night. The GFS builds the trough associated with the rain into Sunday night and sets up for quite the wet pattern afterwards, while the ECMWF gives only some additional rain chances. The official forecast leans more on the ECMWF ensemble members for this portion of the forecast, but the GFS family will be something to bear in mind. While the outlook for rain from both looks good, this is still around 240 hours out, much can change between now and then. The CPC's current 8-14 day outlook does show above normal rainfall is favored along the Bay Area and Central Coast, adding some confidence to the forecasted increase in moisture.
as of 09:44am PST Saturday...Gale force northwest winds will continue over the waters through the day before diminishing from the coast towards the outer waters tonight. These winds will generate steep wind waves through tonight and bring hazardous conditions for smaller vessels. Winds weaken significantly by Sunday, but remain breezy in the northern outer waters. A moderate period northwest swell persists through the weekend.
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tday...SCA...Mry Bay SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm GLW...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm GLW...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm GLW...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm GLW...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm until 3 PM GLW...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm until 3 PM SCA...SF Bay