Point Arena to Pigeon Point between 150 and 250 NM Offshore Forecast
|Tonight...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft.|
|Thu...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft.|
|Thu Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft.|
|Fri...N Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft.|
|Fri Night...N To Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft.|
|Sat...N To Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft.|
|Sat Night...N To Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 6 To 7 Ft.|
|Sun Night...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft.|
|Mon...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft.|
|Mon Night...W To Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft.|
|857 PM PDT Wed Jun 23 2021 .Synopsis for the Central California Coast and Bays Including the Monterey Bay...Greater Farallones...and Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuaries... A stationary and weakening low pressure system over the coastal waters will drift eastward and fully dissipate on Friday. Surface high pressure from the eastern Pacific will build in over the coastal waters this weekend and fluctuate in strength early to mid next week. Northwest winds increasing over the weekend and resulting in freshly steepening seas. Otherwise expect a mix of long period southwesterly swell and a series of shorter period northwest swells.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1057pm PDT Wednesday Jun 23 2021
The offshore trough continues to provide cooler and moister air across our region. Expect another round of marine stratus developing overnight into Thursday morning which will bring coastal drizzle. The upper low will begin to weaken Thursday afternoon as high pressure builds over the Pacific Northwest. Warming and drying trend expected this weekend into next week.
as of 08:35pm PDT Wednesday...As mentioned earlier, today was a near repeat of the past few days with coastal locations near to slightly above seasonal averages while inland areas were as much as 10 degrees cooler than normal. This is in response to a mid/upper level low just off of the central California coast which allowed for low clouds to mix out the past few afternoons. Additionally, the cooler air mass aloft has brought the comfortable temperatures across the interior. Look for the marine layer to dominate once again tonight with low clouds spreading back inland along with the potential for patchy coastal drizzle. This said, no updates are anticipated this evening.
out to be very similar to yesterday starting the morning with a nice marine stratus deck that pushed well inland, but then scattered out by late morning and early afternoon. Another day of cooler, wetter marine air was welcomed for fire fighting efforts on the Willow Fire and smaller vegetation fires over the region. The center of the offshore low continues to nudge closer to the coastline today so we'll likely have another round of overnight marine stratus development and coastal drizzle into early Thursday. However, the marine layer will likely start to compress as high pressure over the Pacific NW starts to dominate the synoptic weather pattern this weekend.
Another thing to note is that there could be some monsoonal moisture from the desert southwest that wraps around the low and pushes into NorCal. Looking at the NAM and GFS, we see that while much of the moisture and instability should stay north and east of our CWA, there's a slight chance some of it could briefly impact the far northern portions of Sonoma and Napa county late Thursday into early Friday morning. The potential elevated convection set up shows that there are higher humidities in the 500-700 mb layer that will track into Mendocino and Lake counties and could then sag southward into the far North Bay region of our forecast area. In addition Total Totals index values range 40-50 at that same time. While not a slam dunk for our area, felt it was worth mentioning as the slight chance of this scenario bears watching.
Now onto the topic of the weekend warm up. Looking at deterministic and ensemble models, there is increasing confidence that much of our interior locations will get into the 90s with some spots reaching into the low 100s. Saturday and Sunday will likely be the peak heat days this weekend. The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) has backed off on how extreme the heat could get for our CWA. Have noticed that the NBM has also trended downward related to the 90th percentile for max temperatures in our region. Suffice it to say that folks, especially in the far interior (North Bay hills, East Bay valley and hills, along with the mountains of San Benito & interior Monterey counties) should be prepared for heat in the mid to upper 90s and potentially up to the low 100s. Heat Risk will be in the moderate level for the areas I mentioned above which means that residents, especially those sensitive to heat, should take action to avoid heat related illnesses. For locations closer to the coast, daytime highs should range mid 60s to mid 80s with some low 90s as you approach the interior.
Extended models show that the high pressure will continue to keep our hotter inland areas in the 90s for much of next week, trending to the lower 90s around midweek. Areas closer to the coast will stay in that 60s to 80s range. No precipitation expected in the long term.
as of 10:41pm PDT Wednesday...A stationary and weakening low pressure system over the coastal waters will drift eastward and fully dissipate on Friday. Surface high pressure from the eastern Pacific will build in over the coastal waters this weekend and fluctuate in strength early to mid next week. Northwest winds increasing over the weekend and resulting in freshly steepening seas. Otherwise expect a mix of long period southwesterly swell and a series of shorter period northwest swells.
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tday...None.