Point Arena to Pigeon Point between 150 and 250 NM Offshore Forecast
| Today...S Winds Less Than 10 Kt, Becoming W To Sw, Then, Increasing To 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Chance Of Rain. |
| Tonight...S Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft. |
| Fri...S Winds 25 To 35 Kt. Seas 9 To 15 Ft. Rain. |
| Fri Night...S To Sw Winds 15 To 25 Kt, Becoming S 25 To 35 Kt. Seas 11 To 15 Ft. Scattered Showers. Scattered Tstms. |
| Sat...Sw Winds 25 To 35 Kt, Becoming 25 To 30 Kt. Seas 13 To 20 Ft. |
| Sat Night...W To Sw Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 15 To 20 Ft. |
| Sun...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 11 To 14 Ft. |
| Sun Night...W To Sw Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 10 To 12 Ft. |
| Mon...W To Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming W To Nw. Seas 11 To 13 Ft. |
| Mon Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 12 To 13 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 130am PST Thu Jan 1 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, Long Term .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1201am PST Thu Jan 1 2026 - High astronomical tides combined with storm surge will bring minor to moderate coastal flooding around high tide through Sunday - Daily rain likely through early next week - Strong southerly winds expected Friday night .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1201am PST Thu Jan 1 2026 (Today and tonight) Light rain continues across the Bay Area as the new year begins. While the total rainfall over the last 24 hours has been less than 1", the troposphere has become totally saturated. The PW was measured at 1.38" on the 00Z sounding. That's near the daily max, and in the top 0.3% of December soundings. The low level dry layer mentioned yesterday has been eliminated. In fact, the first dry layer is in the stratosphere. Despite the anonymously high moisture, rain rates were held in check by a lack of lift. We haven't had a front move through yet to wring out the sponge. That will change this morning as an occluded front moves across the Bay Area and Central Coast. This will increase the rain intensity, and brings a slight to moderate chance of thunderstorms. High resolution models show the best chance over the Central Coast and South Bay around 4-7 AM. After the front moves through showers will become more scattered and the clouds will lift and lighten. There is a second round of showers possible in the afternoon as the instability rises with warmer surface temperatures under the new cold air mass. A NAM point sounding at Salinas valid at 11am shows some instability (41 J/kg surface CAPE), winds backing with height(16kt 0-1km shear), and good low level moisture (91% LowRH). One limiting factor is the high freezing level (7,500+ ft). Most of the instability is in the warmer air below this level. This will limit the amount of ice in the clouds necessary for static electricity build up, significantly hurting the chances for thunderstorms to form after the front passes. The other issues is drier air behind the front. Most likely we will get a break after the morning push of stronger rain, with only isolated to scattered showers expected for the rest of the day and into Friday. Long Term Issued at 1201am PST Thu Jan 1 2026 (Friday through Wednesday) The mostly dry break now looks like it will continue through the majority of the day Friday before the main event of the week arrives Friday night. A strong cold front will quickly approach the coast, with southerly winds increasing to a strong breeze. These winds will pump a new round of tropical moisture, this time from the SW. With stronger winds and a lifting mechanism from FROPA, strong showers and thunderstorms are possible into Saturday morning. With the stronger forcing, these storms also have a marginal chance of hitting severe criteria. Even if storms don't produce damaging winds, the synoptic flow will likely bring some wind impacts across the cwa. Gusts should reach 40-50 mph along the coast and in higher terrain. While not quite as strong as last week, some tree damage and power outages are expected. Southerly winds also produce storm surge thanks to the Ekman Transport. This surge will combine with the ongoing king tides to bring exceptionally high tides on Saturday morning, in particular. As the cold front passes, the 500 mb temperature will drop from around -16C to -23C. This will cause lapse rate to steepen, and could support deeper convection in the post frontal environment on Saturday. A reinforcing front is due on Sunday, bringing yet another round of heavier rain, but less damaging winds. While the rain intensity should start to lighten up next week, the pattern remains unsettled through the 8th or 9th. Marine (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 905pm PST Wednesday Dec 31 2025 Small Craft Advisory conditions have settled over both our outer and coastal waters, and will remain in effect until Friday morning, when southerly winds increase to gale force. Gale Force Warnings will expire early Saturday morning, when winds begin to gradually ease. Expect light to moderate rainfall to persist through the weekend, with a slight chance of thunderstorms early Thursday morning as the center of the upper level low crosses into our outer waters from the south, and then once again Friday into Saturday with the arrival of a second, stronger system. Rain chances and breezy winds will continue into the beginning of next week. Beaches Issued at 859am PST Wednesday Dec 31 2025 Perigean spring tides (King Tides) will impact the region through Sunday. This is due to the combination of the full moon on 1/3, lunar perigee on 1/1, and perihelion on 1/3. In other words all three planetary bodies are lined up and close to each other. In addition to the high astronomical tide, the incoming low pressure system will bring strong southerly winds, generating some storm surge. The combination of these factors will bring minor to moderate coastal flooding to the low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways during high tide through Sunday. At the San Francisco tidal gauge, high tide is expected to be 2.0 ft above normal at 8:41am Thursday, 2.2 ft above normal at 9:34am Friday, 2.2 ft above normal at 10:26am Saturday, and 1.8 ft above normal at 11:18am Sunday. These predictions include up to 1 foot of storm surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. NOAA San Francisco Bay Area Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2pm PST Sunday for CAZ006-505-506- 508-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9am Friday to 3am PST Saturday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory from 9am this morning to 9pm PST this evening for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 3am PST Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Gale Warning from 3am Friday to 3am PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3pm PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Gale Warning from 3pm Friday to 3am PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9am PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Gale Warning from 9am Friday to 3am PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. x.com/nwsbayarea |
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