Point Arena to Pigeon Point between 150 and 250 NM Offshore Forecast
30 - 40
20 - 30
15 - 25
5 - 15
5 - 15
10 - 20
|Today...W To Nw Winds 30 To 40 Kt, Becoming N To Nw 35 To 45 Kt. Seas 14 To 22 Ft. Scattered Showers And Tstms.|
|Tonight...N To Nw Winds Diminishing To 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 13 To 22 Ft, Subsiding To 10 To 15 Ft. Scattered Showers.|
|Thu...Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Subsiding To 7 To 11 Ft.|
|Thu Night...W Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Subsiding To 6 To 7 Ft.|
|Fri...Sw Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft.|
|Fri Night...S To Sw Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Sat...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft.|
|Sat Night...N To Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Building To 5 To 9 Ft.|
|Sun Night...N To Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas Building To 7 To 12 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
154am PDT Wednesday Mar 29 2023
Bands of scattered showers continue to bring brief periods of light to moderate rain into the area early this morning. Expect the next and more convective round of showers to start impacting the Bay Area early this morning as the cold upper low approaches. Mostly dry weather is forecast for Thursday through Saturday, but then unsettled conditions look to return beginning the latter part of the weekend into early next week.
As of 01:50am PDT Wednesday...the upper level low impacting the area was spinning roughly 130 miles west of the northern CA coast, while also tracking slowly to the south/southwest. The frontal band of precipitation that impacted the area yesterday has now moved out of the area, and winds have diminished generally to 10 knots or less across the region.
As the cold upper low continues to move towards and then into California today and tonight, much colder upper level temperatures will also move in. Late Tuesday afternoon, 500mb temperatures roughly ranged from -15C to -22C. By sunrise this morning, 500mb temperatures will range from -20C to -30C. This will increase instability across the area, resulting in an increase in coverage and intensity of showers across the central CA coast, and inland areas. Thus, we are still looking at the possibility of thunderstorms, potentially containing small hail and gusty winds from this morning through this evening. Along with the small hail, gusty winds, and lightning hazards, rainfall rates would also increase, possibly resulting in localized minor flooding. These showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue into the evening hours, gradually decreasing in intensity and coverage during the overnight hours. Expect all precipitation to end by early Thursday morning.
Thursday through Sunday will be generally characterized by generally benign weather with near or slightly cooler than normal temperatures.
Medium range models generally agree on another trough moving through the Pacific Northwest Sunday night into Monday, which could provide another 20 to 30 percent chance for precipitation, along with slightly cooler temperatures. From Tuesday into the middle of next week, the forecast becomes more uncertain as model solutions diverge.
as of 01:50am PDT Wednesday...Winds have decreased below gale criteria and will continue to gradually diminish overnight and into the day Wednesday. As the center of the low pressure system gradually weakens and moves southward, it will move over the outer waters, with large northwest swell building in behind, bringing steep and hazardous seas. This northwest swell has begun to build into the northern waters and will continue to build south through Wednesday as the low moves along. Slight chances of thunderstorms are present through tonight and Wednesday, bringing localized gusty winds, and brief downpours.
NOAA San Francisco Bay Area Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory...San Francisco Bay until 3am
Small Craft Advisory...Monterey Bay
until 3 PM Small Craft Advisory...Point Arena to Point Reyes 0-10nm
Small Craft Advisory...Point Arena to Pigeon Point 10-60nm
Small Craft Advisory...Point Reyes to Pigeon Point 0-10 nm until 9am
Small Craft Advisory...Pigeon Point to Point Pinos 0-10 nm
Small Craft Advisory...Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
Small Craft Advisory...Pigeon Point to Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm