Point Arena to Pigeon Point between 150 and 250 NM Offshore Forecast
|Tonight...W Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming N To Nw 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft.|
|Sat...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft.|
|Sat Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft.|
|Sun...N Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 7 Ft.|
|Sun Night...N To Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Mon...N To Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft.|
|Mon Night...Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft.|
|Tue...Nw Winds Less Than 10 Kt, Becoming S. Seas 5 To 6 Ft.|
|Tue Night...Sw Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft.|
|Wed...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 6 To 10 Ft.|
|Wed Night...W To Sw Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 7 To 13 Ft.|
| 230 PM PDT Fri Sep 18 2020 |
Synopsis for the Central California Coast and Bays Including the Monterey Bay, Greater Farallones and Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuaries - PZZ500
Winds continue to be out of the northwest and light, but locally stronger gusts are forecast south of Pigeon Point, into the northern Monterey Bay, and south of Point Sur along the Big Sur coast. Winds will forecast to increase late Saturday afternoon and into Saturday evening. Seas remain mixed with a shorter period northwest swell and a moderate period south to southwest swell.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
224pm PDT Fri September 18 2020
Near seasonable and mild conditions continue through the weekend. Temperatures look to cool slightly to start then next work week. The mid to late portion of the next week offers a steady warming and drying trend.
as of 02:23pm PDT Friday...Cloud cover has remained intact though much of the late morning, but cleared behind a weak front. This front has been pushing inland from a low pressure along the coast of Oregon since last night. Surface winds have stayed weak with a few areas in the upper altitudes across North Bay seeing breezier conditions, around 20 mph gusts. Winds have also began to shift behind the front with more of a westerly flow, which is expected to remain into early evening. The trough to the north will continue to push inland with the center of the associated low crossing over Oregon tonight. Winds from the surface up to 850 mb are forecast to become more Northerly this evening and overnight. The shift in winds could limit the return of the marine layer tonight. The HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) and the NAM are indicating a weak/shallow marine layer tonight while the EURO and the GFS are not showing significant development.
Saturday morning's compressed marine layer looks to reduce chances for patchy fog and drizzle. A compressed marine layer could allow for earlier marine layer mixing and slightly warmer conditions along the coast. The models are in good agreement that winds from the surface to 700 mb level will stay Northerly for most of the day heading into Sunday. Concerns from this track of wind include drier conditions in the afternoon and the possibility to pull smoke from the August Complex back into the region. Luckily, winds look to remain generally weak. Sunday looks to continue the pattern of drier conditions and temperatures rising at a gradual pace.
Into the next work week: There is some disagreement between models on the positioning of a slight trough on Monday. They do agree on some cooling, specifically for more interior areas. This looks to be short lived, as temperatures are set to rebound and warm at a steady pace for the second half of the work week as weak ridging transits the region.
Longer term models are showing another trough moving over the West Coast the weekend after this. The main disagreement is on the depth of the trough with the GFS offering a deeper, but more widespread gradient. Again this is more than 170 hours out and model output can change wildly in that time. This is something that we will be monitoring.
as of 02:21pm PDT Friday...Light northwest winds with locally stronger northwest winds south of Pigeon Point, into the northern Monterey Bay, and south of Point Sur along the Big Sur coast. Winds are forecast to increase Saturday. Mixed seas prevail with a shorter period northwest swell and a moderate period south to southwest swell.
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tngt...SCA...Mry Bay until 9 PM SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm until 9 PM SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm