Point Arena to Pigeon Point between 150 and 250 NM Offshore Forecast
| Today...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 9 To 12 Ft. |
| Tonight...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 9 To 12 Ft. |
| Sun...N Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 8 To 11 Ft. |
| Sun Night...N Winds 15 To 25 Kt, Becoming Nw 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 8 To 10 Ft. |
| Mon...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 9 To 11 Ft. |
| Mon Night...N Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 10 To 12 Ft. |
| Tue...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 9 To 12 Ft. |
| Tue Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W To Nw. Seas 7 To 9 Ft. |
| Wed...W To Sw Winds Less Than 10 Kt, Becoming Sw. Seas 6 To 7 Ft. |
| Wed Night...Sw Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming S 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 334am PST Sat Nov 26 2022 Synopsis Cool this weekend with quiet weather. Turning colder next week with a few chances for light rainfall. Frost and freezing temperatures become more likely for inland areas towards mid week. As of 12:05am PST Saturday... Today through Sunday: Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery revealed a shield of mid to high level clouds progressing into NorCal early this morning. Light to moderate radar returns were noted across south central Oregon and far northern California in association with a surface cold front. Closer to home, mostly clear skies were present across much of the area, except for some low stratus hugging the North Bay coastline. A consensus of forecast model solutions suggest the shortwave trough responsible for the upstream clouds and precipitation will gradually lose amplitude as it advances towards the Great Basin with waning moisture. Thus the surface front is expected to pass through the area dry today, ushering in a cooler airmass. Highs today will remain fairly seasonal, with temperatures in the lower 60s along the coast and bays, with mid 60s to lower 70s expected for the inland valleys. Lows tonight should drop off into the 35-45 degree range, with the warmest readings along the coast. For Sunday skies should clear following the frontal passage with additional cooling. Highs will generally range from around 60 near the coast to the upper 60s in the warmest inland valleys. With good radiational cooling expect lows mainly in the mid 30s to lower 40s, although some of the cooler inland spots could dip to the 32 degree mark or even a touch cooler Monday through Wednesday: Upper troughing will extend from southwest Canada through the Intermountain West early in the period with a deeper trough approaching the Pacific Northwest by Wednesday. Deterministic models and their ensembles have trended weaker and more inland with the leading trough suggesting only limited precipitation chances for the North Bay on Monday. Rain amounts, if realized, are on the order of a few hundredths of an inch and are mainly confined to northern Sonoma and coastal Marin Counties. Dry conditions are anticipated for Tuesday and Wednesday following a cold frontal passage with high pressure and colder air arriving. Expect highs in the mid 50s to around 60, with overnight lows generally in the 30s to lower 40s. The coldest period should be Tuesday night into Wednesday morning where lows should mostly be in the 30s, except for some lower 40s around the immediate San Francisco Bay. The typically colder North Bay Valleys have a medium to high potential (50-80 percent) of experiencing freezing temperatures, with similar potential noted over San Benito and southern Monterey Counties. It's also worth noting a low potential exists (30-35 percent) for reaching freezing within portions of the Santa Clara valley surrounding San Jose. Temperature trends will be monitored in the days going forward but this is a good reminder to both protect sensitive vegetation and to check in on those without adequate access to heating during this period of colder weather. Thursday and Friday: A meridional flow pattern will evolve as an upper level trough reaches the west coast. An occluding low pressure system will locate along the WA/OR coast with a surface cold front extending towards our area. Deterministic model solutions appear on the wet side this go around (26.00Z) with a decent shot for rainfall across much of the area. However WPC Cluster Analysis ensemble members show some variability in the strength and placement of the upper trough during this time. This uncertainty is reflected in GFS/ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ensemble members as well which show large variability in precipitation timing and amounts. So for now the envelope of potential solutions appears too great to delve into any specifics. Stay tuned. Otherwise of greater confidence is the continuance of below average temperatures given the arrival of a colder air mass behind this system. Marine as of 02:47am PST Saturday...A building northwest is already producing waves 8 to 10 feet at 13 to 14 seconds and will continue to build through the weekend. Coupled with increasing northwest winds behind a dry front, seas will be steep and produce hazardous conditions for smaller vessels into early next week. A new northwest swell arrives on Monday. NOAA San Francisco Bay Area Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories Today: Small Craft Advisory...Point Arena to Point Reyes 0-10nm from 9 AM Small Craft Advisory...Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm from 9 AM Small Craft Advisory...Point Arena to Pigeon Point 10-60nm |
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