Point Arena to Pigeon Point between 60 and 150 NM Offshore Forecast
|Tonight...Nw Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 6 To 11 Ft.|
|Mon...N To Nw Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 6 To 11 Ft.|
|Mon Night...N To Nw Winds 25 To 30 Kt. Seas 7 To 12 Ft.|
|Tue...N Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 7 To 12 Ft.|
|Tue Night...N Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 7 To 12 Ft.|
|Wed...N Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 7 To 12 Ft.|
|Wed Night...N To Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft.|
|Thu...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Thu Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft.|
|Fri...W To Nw Winds Less Than 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft.|
|Fri Night...W To Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
925pm PDT Sunday May 22 2022
Temperatures begin to warm and humidity levels decrease for inland areas through the middle part of the week, with warmest temperatures likely on Tuesday. Though coastal areas will warm as well into mid week, persistent onshore flow will likely keep these areas cooler. Widespread cooling returns as the marine layer tries to rebuild late in the week.
As of 09:25pm PDT Sunday...High pressure building over the eastern Pacific is well in control of the weather pattern over the Bay Area and Central Coast this evening. Sky conditions are mostly clear except for a few passing high clouds streaming southward from the north. A few patches of stratus did develop earlier this evening along the Monterey Peninsula, yet have since dissipated thanks to the drier air mass aloft. Thus, cannot rule out enough moisture in the boundary layer to produce a few patches of low clouds, yet widespread stratus is unlikely tonight into Monday morning. As the ridge aloft strengthens and builds eastward, the warming trend will continue through the first half of the week. This said, the ongoing forecast in the short- term remains on track with no updates anticipated this evening. For more on the heat and near-critical fire weather conditions over the North Bay Interior Mountains and East Bay Hills, please see the previous forecast discussion below.
As of 01:50pm PDT Sunday...Sunny skies prevail for a majority of the forecast are this afternoon. The morning clouds have dissipated in the Salinas Valley, but continue to hug the coastline around Monterey Bay. Sunny skies and temps in the upper 60s to lower 80s, what else could you ask for?
The large area of high pressure over the EPAC will be the main driver of sensible weather for the Bay Area and Central Coast through midweek. The ridge flattens as a trough of low pressure moves through later in the week bringing cooler temperatures lasting through Memorial Day Weekend.
Tonight through Wednesday: The main weather impacts through midweek include:
Temperatures: The gradual warming trend noticed over the weekend will continue and bring a sneak preview of summer Tuesday and Wednesday for interior areas. No significant changes to the previous forecast as confidence remains high for hot weather impacting interior portions of the Bay Area/Central Coast. The latest ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) EFI has expanded its coverage for above normal temperatures. Additionally, calibrated ensembles have finally caught up on heat potential and have been trending warmer. If anything, the forecast was nudged slightly warmer, both day and night through Wednesday. The peak of the heat still appears to be on Tuesday were a few records could fall across the interior. Therefore, Heat Risk values have also increased for Tuesday, but still not high enough to warrant a heat advisory at this point. Highs Monday: mid 60s/near 80 coast and 80s/low 90s inland. Tuesday: 70s/mid 80s coast and upper 80s/near 100 inland. Wednesday: upper 60s/low 80s coast and upper 80s/upper 90s inland. Overnight lows will generally be in the upper 40s/50s valleys and upper 50s/low 70s in the hills.
Wind: Upper level flow will gradually turn northerly to offshore Sunday night into Monday. At the surface, onshore flow will linger Monday, which is why coastal areas are cooler than inland area. Offshore flow will become more pronounced and stronger Monday night into Tuesday, especially for the N and E Bay with gusts of 40+ mph. Winds will ease a little during the day Tuesday, but remain offshore. Another burst of offshore flow Tuesday night into Wednesday, especially for the hills. These two rounds of offshore flow will be gusty, but not strong enough to warrant an advisory.
Fire Weather: Fire weather concerns will definitely be elevated through mid week due to hot weather, offshore flow, and lowering humidity. The offshore flow kicking in later tonight will set the stage to bring in lower humidity readings. Latest hi-res guidance begins the real downward trend in humidity Monday night into Tuesday. Little in the way of overnight humidity recoveries in the hills. By Tuesday, critically low humidity readings are being advertised across the interior with single digit to low teen humidity and no recovery Tuesday night into Wednesday. Meteorologically speaking conditions are there, but after consulting with some of our fire partners large fuels are borderline. That being said, will not be issuing a Fire Weather Watch for Tuesday at this time. Will fire starts be possible? Yes, but not likely to be large in nature. If winds keep trending stronger a watch may need to be revisited. Nonetheless, one less spark one less fire will be the rule for Tuesday.
Thursday and beyond: The ridge flattens and a trough sweeps through the area. The passing trough will bring more seasonable weather back the region heading into the upcoming weekend.
as of 09:25pm PDT Sunday...Strong northwest winds continue across the coastal waters through the first half of the week. The strongest winds will be found near coastal jets and in the northern outer waters, where low end gale force gusts are possible. As a result, hazardous seas with steep wave heigheights will persist through early to mid week as the seas remain wind- driven. Expect wave heigheights of 9 to 12 feet at 8 to 10 seconds in the outer waters, which will slowly diminish throughout the week.
NOAA San Francisco Bay Area Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory...Point Reyes to Pigeon Point 0-10 nm
Small Craft Advisory...Pigeon Point to Point Pinos 0-10 nm
Small Craft Advisory...Pigeon Point to Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
GALE WARNING...Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
until 3 AM GALE WARNING...Point Arena to Pigeon Point 10-60nm
until 3 AM GALE WARNING...Point Arena to Point Reyes 0-10nm