Point Arena to Pigeon Point between 60 and 150 NM Offshore Forecast
| Tonight...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Se 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Chance Of Rain. |
| Thu...S To Se Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming S To Sw 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 6 To 7 Ft. |
| Thu Night...S To Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming S 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 6 To 8 Ft. |
| Fri...Se Winds 20 To 30 Kt, Becoming S To Se 25 To 35 Kt. Seas 8 To 14 Ft. |
| Fri Night...S To Se Winds 25 To 35 Kt, Becoming S 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 12 To 15 Ft. |
| Sat...S To Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 11 To 15 Ft. |
| Sat Night...Sw Winds 20 To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 12 To 18 Ft. |
| Sun...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming S 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 10 To 12 Ft. |
| Sun Night...S To Sw Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming S 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 9 To 10 Ft. |
| Mon...S Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 9 To 11 Ft. |
| Mon Night...S To Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 9 To 11 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 955pm PST Wednesday Dec 31 2025 Issued at 905pm PST Wednesday Dec 31 2025 The steadier rain is pushing towards the north with showers trailing behind, expected to continue through the night before a more organized band with more intense rainfall comes through on the morning of New Year's Day with lingering showers into the evening hours. The forecast remains on track with temperatures at the stroke of midnight ranging between the upper 40s to the middle 50s across the region. Although we do not anticipate any major flooding concerns with this system, slick roadways and ponding on roads are still possible tonight, especially in areas with poor drainage or blocked drains. In addition, coastal flooding is also expected to build in the morning with around 2 feet of inundation above normally dry ground expected at high tide (8:41am at the San Francisco tide gauge). People traveling to or from New Year's events are advised to slow down, allow extra time to reach their destination, and in the event that they do encounter a flooded or barricaded road, turn around, don't drown! DialH .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1247pm PST Wednesday Dec 31 2025 (This evening through Thursday) Light to occasionally moderate rain continues to spread northward and will increase in coverage and intensity through this evening. This is a result of PWAT (Precipitable Water) values between 1.00-1.30" advecting in from the south as a mid/upper level cut off low remains just west of the Central Coast. As the low pressure shifts into the Central Coast on Thursday morning, there will be a slight chance of thunderstorms late morning into the afternoon over this region. By late Thursday afternoon and into the evening, rain will be more focused along the coastal terrain as a warm front moves northward across the region. Rain shadowed valleys may not see any rainfall from Thursday afternoon through about Friday night. Long Term Issued at 1247pm PST Wednesday Dec 31 2025 (Thursday night through next Tuesday) A more typical atmospheric river is set to move through the region late Friday and into early Saturday morning. This is when more widespread rain and stronger winds are forecast. Wind gusts are currently forecast to be 45-55 mph along the coast, in the higher terrain, and northwest to southeast oriented valleys. Elsewhere expecting 35-45 mph gusts from late Friday night through Saturday morning. Wind Advisories are likely during this time frame, yet the forecast models have trended about 6 hours later from yesterday. So, still refining the forecast as we move closer to the event. From 4pm Friday through 4pm Sunday, rainfall totals will range from 2.00- 4.00" in the coastal ranges, 1.50-3.00" in the North Bay, 1.00-2.00" in San Francisco and other coastal areas, and generally less than 1.25" in the rain shadowed valleys. There is generally less than a 20% chance of thunderstorms as the main frontal band moves through and in wake of the passage through Sunday afternoon. Given the recent rainfall from last week, this will lead to nuisance flooding for poor drainage areas, urban areas, and rises on flashy creeks/streams. This will be especially so if a heavier rain shower and/or thunderstorm where to move over any give area. However, widespread river flooding is not anticipated at this time. From the previous forecaster: "A new low pressure system and associated cold front is possible Monday or Tuesday. The ensemble clusters have differing opinions on the strength and timing of this feature, but they all show a trough off the coast, which is enough to keep rain chances around through the entire 7-day forecast period. KMUX will stay in precipitation mode for the foreseeable future." Marine (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 905pm PST Wednesday Dec 31 2025 Small Craft Advisory conditions have settled over both our outer and coastal waters, and will remain in effect until Friday morning, when southerly winds increase to gale force. Gale Force Warnings will expire early Saturday morning, when winds begin to gradually ease. Expect light to moderate rainfall to persist through the weekend, with a slight chance of thunderstorms early Thursday morning as the center of the upper level low crosses into our outer waters from the south, and then once again Friday into Saturday with the arrival of a second, stronger system. Rain chances and breezy winds will continue into the beginning of next week. Beaches Issued at 859am PST Wednesday Dec 31 2025 Perigean spring tides (King Tides) will impact the region through Sunday. This is due to the combination of the full moon on 1/3, lunar perigee on 1/1, and perihelion on 1/3. In other words all three planetary bodies are lined up and close to each other. In addition to the high astronomical tide, the incoming low pressure system will bring strong southerly winds, generating some storm surge. The combination of these factors will bring minor to moderate coastal flooding to the low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways during high tide through Sunday. At the San Francisco tidal gauge, high tide is expected to be 2.0 ft above normal at 8:41am Thursday, 2.2 ft above normal at 9:34am Friday, 2.2 ft above normal at 10:26am Saturday, and 1.8 ft above normal at 11:18am Sunday. These predictions include up to 1 foot of storm surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. NOAA San Francisco Bay Area Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2pm PST Sunday for CAZ006-505-506- 508-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9am Friday to 3am PST Saturday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory from 9am to 9pm PST Thursday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 3am PST Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Gale Warning from 3am Friday to 3am PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3pm PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Gale Warning from 3pm Friday to 3am PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9am PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Gale Warning from 9am Friday to 3am PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. x.com/nwsbayarea |
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