Point Arena to Pigeon Point between 60 and 150 NM Offshore Forecast
| Tonight...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming N. Seas 10 To 12 Ft. |
| Fri...N To Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 10 To 12 Ft. |
| Fri Night...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 11 To 13 Ft. |
| Sat...Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming W To Sw. Seas 10 To 12 Ft. |
| Sat Night...W To Sw Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming W To Nw. Seas 8 To 11 Ft. |
| Sun...W To Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N To Nw. Seas 9 To 15 Ft. |
| Sun Night...N To Nw Winds Less Than 10 Kt. Seas 13 To 15 Ft. |
| Mon...N To Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 10 To 12 Ft. |
| Mon Night...W To Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 8 To 9 Ft. |
| Tue...W To Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 7 To 9 Ft. |
| Tue Night...W To Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S To Sw 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 8 To 9 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 319am PST Fri Nov 6 2026 .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1121pm PST Thu Nov 5 2026 (Tonight through Friday) The 00Z KOAK sounding found bone dry conditions through the troposphere. The precipitable water was measured at 0.34", which is near the 10th percentile for this time of year. The upper level pattern is mostly zonal with a weak ridge building. At the surface this pattern is supporting high pressure over the Rockies and lower pressure at the coast. There have been some gentle to moderate offshore winds as a result of this pressure gradient, although they were mostly overpowered by the sea breeze this afternoon. Expect dry conditions and comfortable temperatures to continue Friday. Long Term Issued at 1121pm PST Thu Nov 5 2026 (Saturday through next Thursday) The conditions are fairly consistent through the weekend, although a weak mid-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. This won't be a major factor for our weather, but temperatures will come down a couple degrees back to seasonal average. The more interesting feature is set to arrive mid to late next week. Ensembles are in good agreement that a deep trough will impact the coast and bring some rain. There is quite a bit of disagreement on the amount of moisture however. Ensemble precipitable water (PWAT) values are all over the place. Euro ensemble members are estimating PWAT (Precipitable Water) between 0.4" to an inch, meanwhile GFS (Global Forecast System) ensemble members estimate between 0.3 to 1.1 inches. Ensemble quantitative precipitation forecast (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) values are not much better with a spread of 0.01 to 1.4 inches of rain. Needless to say, it is too early to pin down how much rain is expected, but the window opens around Wednesday through Thursday. Marine (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 318am PST Fri Nov 6 2026 Rough, ten foot seas will result in hazardous conditions for small craft across the outer waters through Saturday night. Very rough seas will build into the outer waters Sunday into Monday with moderate to rough seas across the inner waters. Moderate to fresh northerly breezes will prevail across the inner and outer waters with bays remaining more sheltered. Chances for unsettled weather return during the middle and later parts of next week. Beaches Issued at 1200pm PST Thu Nov 5 2026 Beach Hazards Statement: Hazardous beach conditions will be present at Pacific Coast beaches through Monday as long period (14-18 second) westerly/northwesterly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents. Breaking waves of 12 to 16 feet are expected at exposed beaches. Spring tides will also increase the currents and bring higher tides than normal. Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and never turn your back on the ocean! Coastal Flood Advisory: A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is expected 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 9:08am Friday 11/6, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 9:38am Saturday 11/7, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:06am Sunday 11/8, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35am Monday 11/9, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04am Tuesday 11/10, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35am Wednesday 11/11, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 12:10pm Thursday 11/12, 1.2 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49pm Friday 11/13. These predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long-period swell will create hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents. These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In 2 weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8' higher than this round, and the total water level could be more than a foot higher if we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This combination would bring the total water level near the 1% annual exceedance probability (2.85' above normal), or a 1 in 100 year event. Something to keep an eye on for the week of Thanksgiving. Sarment/Flynn NOAA San Francisco Bay Area Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530. Coastal Flood Advisory until 4pm PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508- 530. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6am Saturday to noon PST Tuesday for CAZ505-509-529. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3am PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9pm PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. x.com/nwsbayarea |
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