Point Arena to Pigeon Point between 60 and 150 NM Offshore Forecast
| Today...N Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 8 To 11 Ft. Scattered Showers. |
| Tonight...N Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 8 To 11 Ft. |
| Thu...N Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 7 To 10 Ft. |
| Thu Night...N Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 7 To 11 Ft. |
| Fri...N To Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 10 To 11 Ft. |
| Fri Night...W To Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 11 To 12 Ft. |
| Sat...Sw Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 9 To 11 Ft. |
| Sat Night...S To Sw Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 9 To 11 Ft. |
| Sun...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W To Sw. Seas 10 To 12 Ft. |
| Sun Night...Variable Winds Less Than 10 Kt, Becoming N To Ne. Seas 10 To 11 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion ...UPDATED National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1021am PST Wednesday Feb 11 2026 Issued at 927am PST Wednesday Feb 11 2026 The forecast remains on track this morning. A slow moving upper level low will wobble slightly south along the coast over the next 24 hours. Numerous bands of light to moderate showers will move onshore during that time, with the rainfall totals expected to be beneficial with little to no flooding concerns. Winds will be gusty at times primarily along the coastal ranges this afternoon, before easing this evening. The strongest gusts will be along the coast from Monterey south through Big Sur this afternoon with a 60% chance of gusts up to 35mph, and a 15% chance farther north in the East Bay Hills. Similar to the winds, the coastal ranges will see the most rainfall today and tonight with portions of the Santa Cruz mountains and the Santa Lucias receiving over an inch. Most inland areas and lower lying coastal locations will be lucky to see a 0.25" of rainfall. Beyond today and tonight, we mostly dry out for Thursday and Friday. Rain chances Saturday afternoon increase across the North Bay, then spread south across the remainder of our area Saturday night into Sunday. .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1258am PST Wednesday Feb 11 2026 (Today and tonight) A gale force low pressure system off the Central Coast will ride northward, parallel to the California Coast today. It will weaken as it does so, allowing the pressure gradient to relax and southerly winds to relatively diminish. Rain showers with a slight chance of embedded thunderstorms will continue today. The three ingredients needed for a thunderstorm of lift, instability, and moisture will all be in place, even if the instability and moisture are on the low end. The low shear environment and nearly uni-directional wind profile will result in a low potential for any kind of rotation. Impacts wise, drivers can expect slick roadways and ponding on roadways. If a thunderstorm were to develop, lightning, locally heavy rainfall leading to localized flooding, pea size hail, and erratic/gusty winds are all potential hazards. Long Term Issued at 1258am PST Wednesday Feb 11 2026 (Thursday through Tuesday) Dry conditions and near normal temperatures return Thursday and persist into Friday as the surface low dissipates and surface high pressure builds into the West. Global ensemble clusters are in agreement that upper-level heigheights will begin falling Saturday. Upper-level longwave troughing will develop off the West Coast and be the primary driver of the weather for the rest of the long term. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Ens and GFS (Global Forecast System) Ens are in agreement that an upper-level low gets pinched off the longwave trough and a surface low develops by Saturday. There is uncertainty after the weekend stemming from the progression and strength of the low feature. While confidence is still high that it will rain from Saturday on, there is about a half an inch of spread each day of Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. The official total rainfall forecast seems to be beneficial right now with no mainstem river flooding expected, largely in part to the recent dry spell. Winds will also increase Sunday into next week with low probabilities (less than 20%) for gusts in excess of 45 mph. Marine (Today through Monday) Issued at 343am PST Wednesday Feb 11 2026 Gusty winds continue through late morning before diminishing. Gale force gusts remain possible across the inner coastal waters through late this morning. Winds will generally be out of east to southeast but will remain variable through Thursday thanks to a low pressure system linger offshore of California. Rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms persist through early Thursday. Moderate seas continue before seas increase and unsettled weather returns over the weekend as the next storm system approaches. NOAA San Francisco Bay Area Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3pm PST this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm- SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 9pm PST this evening for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. x.com/nwsbayarea |
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