Point Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island CA between 150 and 250 NM Offshore Forecast
|Today...N To Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 6 To 8 Ft.|
|Tonight...N To Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft.|
|Sat...N To Nw Winds Less Than 10 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft.|
|Sat Night...N To Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft.|
|Sun...N To Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 6 To 7 Ft.|
|Sun Night...N To Nw Winds Less Than 10 Kt. Seas 6 To 7 Ft.|
|Mon...N To Nw Winds Less Than 10 Kt, Becoming W To Nw. Seas 5 To 7 Ft.|
|Mon Night...N To Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft.|
|Tue...N Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 7 To 12 Ft.|
|Tue Night...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 11 To 13 Ft.|
| 846 AM PST Tue Nov 30 2021 |
Synopsis for the southern California coast and Santa Barbara Channel including the Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary and National Park - PZZ600
at 16Z, or 8 AM PST, a 1031 MB surface high was centered in Idaho. A 1016 MB low was centered near Catalina Island. Gusty NW winds across portions of the outer waters will diminish this evening. Some gusty NE winds will affect portions of the inner waters late tonight into Wed.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
843am PST Tuesday Nov 30 2021
High pressure aloft and above normal temperatures will continue.nue through this week. Gusty northeast Santa Ana winds are expected today into Wednesday. A cool down is expected Thursday through Saturday with the return of low clouds and fog to coastal areas. A slight warming trend is expected on Sunday and Monday
Short Term - Today through Thursday
GOES-17 satellite imagery, surface observations, and webcams showing dense fog across coastal Ventura and Los Angeles Counties with visibilities as low as a 1/16th of a mile in a couple of observations. Have therefore continued the dense fog advisory through 9 am, even though it's likely to improve prior to that, especially away from the immediate coast. It's even spread into the immediate SBA Co south coast. A weak offshore pressure gradient is still in place this morning and there are a few areas of gusting NE winds in the LA Co mountains and west into the Santa Susanas of VTU Co this morning, as well as in parts of SLO Co through the Santa Lucias. NE winds are expected to become more widespread and increase slightly in LA/VTU Counties then sustaining through tonight into tomorrow morning. A brief uptick is still expected mid morning tomorrow as offshore pressure gradients strengthen some. Local and national high-res models are in better agreement this morning with forecasting winds gusting in the 25 to 40 mph range, although ensembles continue to downplay the NE winds. The GEFS shows no indication of the NE winds at all, while the EPS has a handful of ensemble members and its mean that are a little closer to the high-res solutions. Wind advisories may be needed for some areas even though it would be low end at best. Still expected to be a fairly weak event with little or no impact.
Temperatures will once again be warm today with a few degree warm up in some valleys and a little more across much of the central coast. Will be another few degrees warmer on Wednesday through the Ventura County coast due to the increase in offshore flow. Several records are within reach today and will likely be broken or tied. Some question as to whether or not dense fog will make a return appearance tomorrow morning along the LA County coast and could be a game time decision on an dense fog advisory. The bet is that it'll return given the lack of NE winds there.
***from previous discussion***
On Thursday, a weak upper-level low to the south creeps northward and gradients trend onshore. A major cooling trend will ensue and temperatures will drop back into the 70s across the board. Some high clouds may spread over the area and there will likely be a return of widespread marine layer stratus over the coasts overnight into Friday morning.
Long Term - Friday through Monday
More cooling is expected on Friday then remain fairly stagnant on Saturday as onshore flow makes its return. Despite the cooling, temperatures will still be around 5 to 10 degrees above normal away from the immediate coast. Night through morning marine layer stratus will continue.nue across the coastal areas, and may filter into the lower coastal valleys. Models and their ensembles are in agreement with rebuilding the upper-level ridge over the Eastern Pacific late Saturday into Sunday and nudging it into California. Pressure gradients shift back to weakly offshore and this will start a new brief warming trend on Sunday and Monday. Ensembles also indicate an uptick in northeast winds through the Santa Ana corridor, but there is still a decent amount of spread. There is also still a certain degree of spread in high temperature possibilities among the EPS, GEFS, and the NBM.
Areas of dense fog will affect the coastal waters this morning. A marine weather statement is in effect. Please refer to LAXMWSLOX for additional information. Visibilities under one quarter mile should be expected.
Across the outer waters, only fair confidence that NW winds will increase to Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels across the northern two zones (PZZ670/673) later this morning, and continue through this evening. There is a 30% chance that this will not occur. SCA conds are not expected late tonight thru Fri night. There is a 30% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level NW winds across the entire waters Sat.
Across the inner waters n of Pt. Sal, SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are not expected thru Sat.
In the SBA Channel, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level NE winds from Ventura to Pt Mugu and out to Santa Cruz Island Wednesday morning. Otherwise, SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conds are not expected thru Sat.
Across the southern inner waters, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level NE winds from Point Mugu to Santa Monica Wednesday morning. Otherwise, SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conds are not expected thru Sat.
An extended period of gusty northeast winds and low humidities will bring elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions mainly away from the coast through at least Wednesday. Peak northeast wind gusts of at least 20 to 40 mph are expected in parts during much of this time. Wednesday should be the windiest day of the week with peak wind gusts of 25 to 40 mph through the Santa Ana wind corridor. The strongest winds will be limited to more inland valley and mountain areas, with lesser wind speeds down into the Ventura County coastal plain.
The lowest minimum humidities today are expected to be between 10 and 18 percent, lowest in the windier areas, then more widespread on Wednesday with a couple of pockets of 8 to 10 percent possible. Mountain areas will have poor overnight recoveries as well. Very weak offshore flow continues on Thursday and northeast winds will weaken. The combination of gusty northeast winds and these humidities will create elevated to briefly critical fire weather conditions through Wednesday and elevated on Thursday. Red flag conditions are not expected to be met even on Wednesday morning when winds are expected to be at their peak.
Gusty offshore winds will also blow through the Santa Lucia mountains and adjacent foothills through Wednesday, however humidities in this area will remain above critical levels.
NOAA Los Angeles/Oxnard CA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CA...Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 9am PST this morning for zones 40-41.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9pm PST this evening for zones 670-673.
.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (THU-MON).
No significant hazards expected.