Point Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island CA between 150 and 250 NM Offshore Forecast
|Tonight...Sw Winds Less Than 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 6 To 7 Ft.|
|Thu...Sw Winds 15 To 25 Kt, Becoming N. Seas 6 To 11 Ft. Chance Of Rain.|
|Thu Night...N Winds 20 To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 7 To 13 Ft.|
|Fri...N To Ne Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 11 To 14 Ft.|
|Fri Night...E To Ne Winds Less Than 10 Kt, Becoming Variable. Seas 8 To 12 Ft.|
|Sat...E To Se Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming S To Se 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft.|
|Sat Night...W Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 7 To 11 Ft.|
|Sun...W Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 8 To 13 Ft.|
|Sun Night...W Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 10 To 12 Ft.|
|Mon...W To Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 8 To 11 Ft.|
|Mon Night...N To Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 6 To 8 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
459pm PST Wednesday Nov 30 2022
A storm system will enter the region late Wednesday into Thursday with moderate to locally heavy rain at times through early Friday. Another storm system will bring light to moderate rain back to the area Saturday into early Sunday. Dry weather is expected next week but with cooler than normal temperatures.
Short Term - Today through Saturday
An upper low centered near Victoria Island is moving south along the West Coast. In response, fairly strong eddy circulation has developed in the bight region of Southern California with a fair amount of stratocumulus all the way up the coast just south of Monterey. As the low continues its trek down the coast the eddy will strengthen and cause the marine layer to deepen up to as high as 5000'. This should happen by tonight or early Thursday with some scattered light showers south of Pt Conception. Otherwise, a cloudy day in most areas with highs in the 50s to lower 60s.
The main part of the storm is still on track to arrive late in the day Thursday in northwest SLO County. into southern Santa Barbara County by 7 or 8pm, and Ventura around 10 pm, and LA County around midnight.
The biggest difference now is the lack of a strong low level jet which some models earlier had shown for several cycles. Without that we won't likely see as much of an upslope enhancement of the rainfall. It's possible the slightly more northerly trajectory of the storm is prohibiting the strong southerly flow from developing. In any case, virtually all of the EPS solutions from the both the GEFS and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) are quite a bit lower with their rain forecast compared to the last few days. And given the decreased upslope flow and faster movement of the cold front these lower numbers look reasonable. So amounts with the first storm have been cut basically in half and now going with a half to one inch for coast/valleys and 1-2" in the mountains.
Most of the precipitation should be out of the area by Friday morning except possibly some lingering showers in LA County.
Not much snow with this event, at least not below 6000', so not planning on any winter hazards for this one. Maybe 3-6" above 7000'.
A second storm system will arrive mid-morning Saturday along the northwest SLO Coast then work its way southeast through Saturday night. Some of the EPS solutions are actually showing higher PW's with this one than the first and better upslope enhancement. However, a majority still favor a slightly weaker storm with around 25% less precipitation overall. Snow levels again pretty high so any snow impacts will mainly above 7000'.
Long Term - Sunday through Wednesday
Showers will taper off by early afternoon Sunday with clearing skies. No additional rain is expected through the following Wednesday, though temperatures will remain slightly below normal. Overall a quiet first half of the week with mostly light winds and ample sunshine.
No changes to the marine forecast in the afternoon issuance. Overall, moderate confidence in the current forecast.
For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands and along the Central Coast, winds and seas will likely remain below Small Craft Advisory level through late tonight. There is a an increasing chance of widespread SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions on Thursday, spreading from north to south through the day. There is a 40 percent chance of Gale force southerly winds, mainly from west through northwest Point Conception and across the nearshore waters off the Central Coast, diminishing to a 30 percent chance for the waters south through southwest from Point Conception. Winds will shift to W very late Thu night or Fri morning, and could stay at SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels for several hours after the wind shift. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conds are not expected Friday and Friday night, but there is a moderate (50 percent) chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds again on Saturday and Saturday night.
Inside the southern California bight, winds and seas should remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels through at least Thursday afternoon. There is a moderate (30-50) percent chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level southerly wind Thursday night through early Friday morning, highest for western portions. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are not expected from Friday morning through Sunday at this time.
NOAA Los Angeles/Oxnard CA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3am Thursday to 3am PST Friday for zones 645-670.
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9am Thursday to 9am PST Friday for zones 673-676.