Point Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island CA between 60 and 150 NM Offshore Forecast
| Today...N To Ne Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming N 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft. |
| Tonight...N To Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 6 To 7 Ft. |
| Wed...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 6 To 8 Ft. |
| Wed Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 7 To 8 Ft. |
| Thu...N To Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 6 To 8 Ft. |
| Thu Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. |
| Fri...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft. |
| Fri Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. |
| Sat...N To Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft. |
| Sat Night...N To Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 7 To 9 Ft. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 429am PST Tuesday Jan 14 2025 Synopsis 14/215 AM. Moderate to strong offshore flow will remain in place through Wednesday with a dry air mass across the region. An extended period of critical fire weather conditions will continue across Southland through midweek due to the combination of gusty winds, very low humidities, and a lack of rainfall. Cold overnight temperatures are expected in wind protected areas for the next few mornings. A cooling trend with higher humidities is expected beginning Thursday and lasting through the weekend. Short Term - Today through Thursday 14/304 AM. Slightly odd upper level pattern today with a upper low well to the SW of KLAX and a 584 dam ridge above it nosing into OR. There is NE flow aloft over Srn CA. Fortunately the speed of the upper flow is much less than last week. There is also much less cold air advection. At the surface there is about 3 mb of offshore flow from both the E and N but the E push if forecast to increase by a couple of mb by dawn. This is a more typical Santa Ana in that the winds are following a diurnal pattern with wind maxima in the mornings and mininma in later afternoon and evenings. Today's winds have already started to ramp up and will continue to accelerate through mid morning. Warning level gusts have begun in the mtns and will become more widespread and then move out into the vlys and then the csts. The winds will be a little more northeasterly today and the axis of strongest winds will shift to the most typical Santa Clarita Vly to Point Mugu line. Most of the warning level gusts will temporally subside later this afternoon. Not much change is slated for Wednesday. High Rez models indicate that the wind speeds should be slightly less that today's readings. The good news is that the upper support will collapse in the afternoon and there will only be a few advisory gusts lingering until evening. There will be another uptick in wind speeds, but with no upper support the winds will only be in the 15 to 25 mph range. The combination of winds, extremely low humidities and tinder dry fuels will lead to an extremely dangerous fire weather environment. Please see the fire weather discussion below for all of the details. The very cold air mass remains in place and all of the wind sheltered inland locations will see freezing temperatures each night. Some lows will be as low as 15 degrees. Another round of Freeze/Frost products will be needed tonight. The cold air mass will moderate a little each day and most max temps will warm some each day. Most of Wednesday's max temps will be within a few degrees of 70 across the csts/vlys. Long Term - Friday through Monday 14/319 AM. Dry but benign weather is on tap for Friday and the weekend. Dry cyclonic flow will be over the state. Week offshore flow will continue from the north but there will be onshore flow to the east (esp in the afternoon). There is even a chance of marine layer clouds for the coasts and lower vlys on Fri and Sat mornings. Look for three days of cooling with Sunday's max temps ending up a few degrees either side of 60 across the csts and vlys. These max temps are 4 to 8 locally 10 degrees below normal. Not the greatest confidence in the Monday forecast. Some solutions do favor a another moderate offshore event, but more members indicate just a weak event with a little bit of warming. Marine 14/428 AM. In the Outer Waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level E-NE winds will persist in the southern zone (PZZ676) thru Wednesday afternoon. Local Gale force gusts are possible (20-30% chance) this morning and again late tonight/early Wednesday in PZZ676. Otherwise, winds and seas will be below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels thru Sat night. There is a 30-40% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level NW winds Fri night/Sat. mainly southern zones. In the inner waters N of Pt. Sal, except for a 20% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level NE winds nearshore during the morning hours today and Wed, SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level conds are not expected thru Sat night. In the Santa Barbara Channel, Gale force winds are expected much of the time thru early Wednesday afternoon from Ventura to eastern Santa Cruz Island southward. Winds may drop down to SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels at times during this period, especially this evening. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level NE winds may continue into Wednesday night, then benign conds are expected Wednesday night thru Sat night. Elsewhere, there is a 20% chance of SCA level E winds this morning and again late tonight/Wednesday morning. In the southern inner waters. Gale force winds are expected from Malibu to Point Mugu and out to Anacapa Island much of the time thru Wednesday afternoon. Winds may drop below Gale force at times, especially this evening. Then, SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level NE winds will likely continue into Wednesday evening. Elsewhere, SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level NE winds are likely at times thru Wednesday afternoon. This is especially likely (80% chance) thru the San Pedro Channel out to Avalon and Two Harbors on Catalina Island this morning, and again late tonight and Wednesday morning. There is a 40% chance of Gale Force winds in this area. Benign conds are then expected Wednesday night thru Fri. Fire Weather 13/432 PM. ...PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION (PDS) RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT 4am TUESDAY UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY DUE TO DAMAGING NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS: WESTERN SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS/ I5 CORRIDOR/ SOUTHERN VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS/ SANTA SUSANA MOUNTAINS/ VENTURA VALLEYS (MAINLY NEAR SIMI VALLEY/MOORPARK/ SANTA PAULA/SOUTH MOUNTAIN)/ WESTERN SANTA MONICAS/ WESTERN SAN FERNANDO VALLEY (MAINLY HIGHWAYS 118/210 CORRIDORS FROM PORTER RANCH TO SAN FERNANDO)/ CALABASAS/AGOURA HILLS/ VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN--THIS WILL BE A TIME PERIOD OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS... ...RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH 6pm WEDNESDAY DUE TO GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES... ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10pm THIS EVENING TO NOON PST WEDNESDAY FOR GUSTY EAST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES AS WELL AS SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS EASTERN RANGE, LAKE CASITAS, AND OJAI VALLEY... ***THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION (PDS) FOR PORTIONS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES!*** .A long duration Red Flag Warning remains in effect across much of Los Angeles and Ventura counties through 6pm Wednesday, expanding into the mountains of San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties by tonight. THERE WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 55 AND 70 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, LEADING TO THE PDS RED FLAG WARNING UPGRADE. AREAS IN THE RED FLAG WARNING (ESPECIALLY DURING THE PDS TIME FRAME) WILL HAVE A HIGH RISK FOR LARGE FIRES WITH VERY RAPID FIRE SPREAD, EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR, AND LONG RANGE SPOTTING. WHILE DANGEROUS PDS RED FLAG FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS EVENT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, THIS WIND EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AND DESTRUCTIVE AS LAST WEEK'S WINDSTORM. Due to the more easterly component of the wind, much of Ventura County will likely have stronger winds than the offshore wind events this past week. NOAA Los Angeles/Oxnard CA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CA...Freeze Warning remains in effect until 9am PST this morning for zones 38-343-344-346>348-357-381>383. High Wind Warning remains in effect until noon PST Wednesday for zones 88-354-355-358-362-369-371-372-374>376-378>380. Frost Advisory remains in effect until 9am PST this morning for zones 340-341. Wind Advisory in effect until 6pm PST Wednesday for zones 354-355-358-369-372-374>376-378-379. Wind Advisory remains in effect until noon PST Wednesday for zones 370-373-377. Red Flag Warning in effect until 6pm PST Wednesday for zones 288-354-355-358-362-369>376-378>380-548. (See LAXRFWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until noon PST Wednesday for zones 345-352-353-356-357. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 3pm PST Wednesday for zones 650-655. Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3pm PST Wednesday for zone 676. https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox |
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