Point Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island CA between 60 and 150 NM Offshore Forecast
|Today...N To Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 11 To 13 Ft.|
|Tonight...N To Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 10 To 13 Ft.|
|Fri...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 11 To 13 Ft.|
|Fri Night...N Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 9 To 12 Ft.|
|Sat...N Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 7 To 11 Ft.|
|Sat Night...N Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 6 To 8 Ft.|
|Sun...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft.|
|Sun Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft.|
|Mon...N Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft.|
|Mon Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 7 To 8 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1105am PST Thu Dec 7 2023
Gusty northerly winds will develop across portions of the area today and Friday, with the strongest winds in the mountains tonight. A cooling trend is expected to continue through Friday. On Friday evening, winds will shift into a Santa Ana wind event and continue into early next week with warming temperatures.
Short Term - Today through Saturday
Northerly flow starting to take over across the area today following last night's weak frontal passage. Already getting strong advisory level winds across the Santa Ynez Range and at Sandberg above the Grapevine. Will likely see these winds drop off slightly later this morning and afternoon in typical diurnal fashion before returning tonight with even stronger winds and gusts and also reaching the valleys and some coastal areas.
Models are coming in a little stronger with the Santa Ana Saturday providing higher confidence with at least a strong advisory level event and likely greater coverage of warning level winds than earlier expected across LA/Ventura Counties.
***From Previous Discussion***
Good cold advection, increasing NW to N flow aloft and strong subsidence should provide ample support for strong to damaging NW to N winds by this afternoon across the interior mtns of SBA County, the eastern Santa Ynez Range, the mtns of Ventura County, and the Interstate 5 Corridor. High Wind Warnings are in effect for these areas through very late tonight, except through mid morning Fri in the Interstate 5 Corridor. Northwest winds will likely reach advisory levels across much of the Central Coast (especially southern portions), across the Santa Ynez Valley, and in the western Antelope Valley foothills this afternoon through late tonight.
Advisory level NW winds will likely spread into the Lake Casitas areas and also into the Santa Clarita Valley and western San Fernando Valley by late this afternoon. Advisory level winds will continue to spread southward early this evening, reaching the eastern Santa Monicas, the Malibu area, as well as across West L.A. to Palos Verdes. Wind advisories are in effect for these areas through late tonight or Fri morning. Winds could get close to advisory levels in the eastern valleys of Ventura County, the eastern San Fernando Valley and through the Hollywood Hills tonight and early Fri, but at this point, expect winds to stay just below advisory levels. That will have to be watched closely today. Skies will be mostly clear tonight and Fri. Max temps on Fri will be similar to those of today in most areas.
There may be somewhat of a break in the winds late Fri morning into Fri afternoon, but winds will shift to a more northeasterly direction Fri night/Sat. W-E gradients will become strongly offshore, with the forecast gradient between KLAX and KDAG expected to be about 9 mb offshore. The more northeasterly direction of the wind will shift the focus of the strongest winds to most of Ventura County, to the mtns of L.A. County, the western and northern valleys of L.A. County, the western Santa Monica range and the Malibu Coast. With the strong offshore gradients, and continue favorable upper level support, there is the potential for damaging NE winds gusts in these areas Fri evening through Sat, except late Fri night through Sat on the Ventura County coastal plain. Wind gusts to 60 mph are possible in the coastal and valley areas, with gusts to 70 mph possible in the mountains and foothills.
Skies will be clear Fri night and Sat. Where the winds drop off Fri night, frost or freeze conditions are likely in the interior, with temps possibly dropping to as low as 20 degrees in wind- sheltered portions of the Antelope Valley. Expect some warming in most areas on Sat as a building upper ridge in the eastern Pacific will cause heigheights to rise. The best warming will be west of the mtns, where downslope offshore flow will assist in the warming process.
Long Term - Sunday through Wednesday
The upper ridge will move into CA on Sun. Low level gradients will remain decently offshore, so gusty NE winds will likely be at or slightly above advisory levels once again Sat night/Sunday morning across much of Ventura County and northern/western L.A. County (except the Antelope Valley). Skies will be mostly clear, though some high clouds may push into the region late Sunday once the ridge axis moves east of the area. Max temps should be up a few degrees in most areas, though there may be slight cooling right near the coast.
The ridge will flatten Monday as a trough moves into the West Coast, and heigheights across the region will fall. There will still likely be some locally gusty NE winds in the morning, but below advisory levels. Some high clouds will likely push across the area. Max temps should be down a few degrees in most areas.
The operational runs of the EC and the GFS (Global Forecast System) both show short wave energy dropping southward down the West Coast, causing the trough to sharpen and eventually evolve into a closed upper low. The EC shows that happening over central CA early Tue, with the upper low drifting into the Great Basin Wed. The GFS is a bit slower to close the low off Tuesday and it does so farther east than does the EC. However, it shows the upper low dropping southwestward to the CA/AZ border by early Wed. Offshore pressure gradients at the surface will increase again, especially by Wednesday morning, so there may be another uptick in Santa Ana winds across the region. Heights will lower a bit, so expect a bit of cooling Tue, with possible warming Wednesday due to some height rises and better offshore flow.
Very difficult forecast over the next few days, causing lower confidence than usual in winds, especially tonight through Saturday morning.
For the Outer Waters and all waters along the Central Coast, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level seas of up to 15 feet will start to subside Friday night into Saturday. The GALE WARNING was started immediately for zones PZZ673 and PZZ676, with a 20% chance of local Gale gusts lingering into Friday afternoon. Friday night into Saturday afternoon, there is a 60% chance of N-NE SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds across the waters south of the Channel Islands, and a 30% of N-NE SCA (Small Craft Advisory) winds across the other portions of the waters into mid- Saturday morning. Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) northerly winds.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, NW SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds expected to expand to the western portions of all the southern inner waters by this afternoon through evening. Tonight into Friday morning, there is a 50-60% chance of N to NE SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds from Malibu to Santa Monica, possibly extending south into the San Pedro Channel. Winds will shift more NE over the day Friday, and strengthen to SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels across the waters from Ventura to Santa Monica and out past Anacapa Island, with a 40-50% chance of Gale Force winds nearest shore. There's a 30% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) winds extending from Orange County out to Catalina Island with gusts of 25 kt and wind waves of 2 to 4 feet possible Friday night into Saturday morning. There is a 20% chance of lighter SCA winds continuing through Sunday morning. By Sunday afternoon, conds will likely remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels.
Long period NW swell (15-18 seconds) will affect the coastal waters through tonight. Expect 10 to 14 feet for Central Coast beaches, 5 to 8 feet with local sets to 9 feet for Ventura County beaches, and elevated surf of 3 to 6 feet for LA County beaches. There is a 40% chance of high surf lingering into Friday afternoon. Surf heigheights will be highest across west and northwest facing beaches. Due to low astronomical tides, any coastal flooding will be very minimal.
NOAA Los Angeles/Oxnard CA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 10am PST Friday for zone 88.
High Wind Watch in effect from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon for zones 88-358-362-369-371-372-374-375-379.
High Surf Advisory in effect until 2am PST Friday for zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 3am PST Friday for zones 346>349-351.
Wind Advisory in effect from 3pm this afternoon to 3am PST Friday for zones 350-356-381.
High Wind Warning in effect from 3pm this afternoon to 6 AM PST Friday for zones 352-353-376-377.
High Wind Watch in effect from late Friday night through Saturday afternoon for zones 354-355.
Beach Hazards Statement in effect through late tonight for zones 362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from 7pm this evening to 10am PST Friday for zones 362-370.
Wind Advisory in effect from 7pm this evening to 3am PST Friday for zones 366-367.
Wind Advisory in effect from 3pm this afternoon to 10am PST Friday for zones 372-379.
Wind Advisory in effect until 3pm PST this afternoon for zone 378.
High Wind Warning in effect from 3pm this afternoon to 10 AM PST Friday for zone 378.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3am PST Friday for zones 645-650-655-670.
Gale Warning in effect until 3am PST Friday for zones 673-676.