Point Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island CA between 60 and 150 NM Offshore Forecast
20 - 30
10 - 20
5 - 15
5 - 15
10 - 20
5 - 15
|Today...W Winds 20 To 30 Kt, Becoming N 15 To 25 Kt Early, Then Becoming Nw 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 9 To 16 Ft. Scattered Showers And Tstms.|
|Tonight...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 15 Kt. Seas Subsiding To 6 To 10 Ft.|
|Fri...N To Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming N. Seas Subsiding To 5 To 7 Ft.|
|Fri Night...Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas Subsiding To 4 To 5 Ft.|
|Sat...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Sat Night...W To Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Sun...N To Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Sun Night...Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas Building To 5 To 8 Ft.|
|Mon...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas Building To 6 To 10 Ft.|
|Mon Night...Nw Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas Building To 9 To 15 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
440am PDT Thu Mar 30 2023
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will affect the area this morning with clearing skies this afternoon. Dry conditions with a warming trend are expected Friday through at least early next week.
Short Term - Today through Saturday
The upper low is spinning to the west of SBA county and the sfc low is a little to the south and west of it. Numerous bands of showers have developed in the areas of PVA around the low. There has only been isolated short lived TSTM activity. Most areas have received a quarter to a half inch of additional rain save for eastern and southern LA county where about a tenth of an inch has fallen. The upper low will pivot to the east before dawn and slide across the area during the morning hours. By afternoon the low will be to east of the area and the only shower activity will be over LA county and eastern VTA county. A slight chance of TSTMs will persist into the early afternoon over eastern LA county. Additional rainfall amounts will mostly range from a tenth to a half inch and will be very un-homogeneous in its distribution.
Snow levels are currently around 3500 feet. Accumulating snow is possible across the Grapevine and the Soledad pass. 4 to 8 inches of additional snow is possible at elevations greater than 6000 ft and winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories cover the mtns from SBA to LA county.
Max temps today across the csts and vlys will be a couple degrees either side of 60 or 10 to 15 degrees below normal.
A little Probability of Precipitation up ridge will move over the area on Friday. There will be enough mid level clouds embedded in it ti make it at least a partly cloudy day and perhaps mostly cloudy at times. Rising hgts will allow for a 3 to 6 degree warm up.
A dry trough will move through the area on Saturday. It will likely bring some morning marine layer clouds to the csts esp the LA and western SBA county coasts. Aside from those low clouds it will be sunny day. The sunshine and weak offshore flow will bring another 3 to 6 degrees of warming to most areas. Despite the warming max temps will still be 3 to 6 degrees below normal.
Long Term - Sunday through Wednesday
Medium range models and their respective ensembles are in good agreement for Sunday and show brisk WNW flow over the state. Skies will be mostly clear. But the return of onshore flow and lowering hgts will combine to knock 2 to 4 degrees off of the max temps.
GFS (Global Forecast System) and EC deterministic solutions diverge somewhat on Monday and the ensembles begin to show a little more spread. A not so inside slider will make its way down the center of the state. This kind of path usually does not bring precipitation to the csts and vlys but more favors the interior sections and the mtns where there is a chance of showers and low elevation snow. Max temps will plummet across the board falling 4 to 8 degrees across the csts/vlys and 10 to 15 degrees across the interior.
Drier flow will set up Tuesday and Wed. There will be a little warming each day but max temps will remain well below normal.
Low confidence in the forecast through today due to marginal Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and seas, then moderate confidence thereafter. Periodic SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds will continue through the weekend, before another storm system will potentially bring at least SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds and seas early next week.
SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level seas above 10 feet are being reported across the outer waters. These seas will start to diminish late this morning through afternoon. Winds are more difficult due to a low pressure system dropping into the region through Thursday. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level NW-SW winds across the outer waters will likely continue through late tonight. For the inner waters adjacent to L.A. County, there is a 50-60% chance of W-NW SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds tonight into mid-Thursday morning, with the strongest winds remaining west of Catalina Island. However, there may be times that they drop below advisory levels.
There is a slight chance of thunderstorms across the waters through this afternoon. Some storms could produce small hail, gusty winds, dangerous lightning, and possibly waterspouts.
This evening into late night, there is a 50-60% chance of NW SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds overspreading the outer waters as well as the western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel before dropping below advisory levels Friday morning through the afternoon. As well as another round of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds for the same area late Friday morning through Sunday morning.
On Sunday, another storm system will possibly bring SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds and seas, with a chance of Gales across all the waters through Wednesday.
NOAA Los Angeles/Oxnard CA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 8am PDT this morning for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 10am PDT this morning for zones 353-376-377. (See LAXWSWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 8pm PDT this evening for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX). Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 2pm PDT this afternoon for zones 378-379. (See LAXWSWLOX). Winter Storm Warning in effect until 2pm PDT this afternoon for zone 380. (See LAXWSWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 6am PDT early this morning for zones 381>383.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9am PDT this morning for zone 645.
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3pm this afternoon to 3 am PDT Friday for zone 650.
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3am PDT Friday for zones 655-673-676.
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9pm PDT this evening for zone 670.