Point Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island CA between 60 and 150 NM Offshore Forecast
|Today...Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To Less Than 10 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft.|
|Tonight...W To Nw Winds Less Than 10 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft.|
|Sat...Variable Winds Less Than 5 Kt, Becoming W To Sw. Seas 5 To 6 Ft.|
|Sat Night...W To Nw Winds Less Than 5 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft.|
|Sun Night...Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 6 To 7 Ft.|
|Mon...N To Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 6 To 7 Ft.|
|Mon Night...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 6 To 7 Ft.|
|Tue...N Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 7 To 12 Ft.|
|Tue Night...N To Nw Winds 25 To 30 Kt. Seas 11 To 15 Ft.|
| 232 PM PST Wed Dec 1 2021 |
Synopsis for the southern California coast and Santa Barbara Channel including the Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary and National Park - PZZ600
at 21Z, or 1 PM PST, a 1026 MB surface high was over Idaho, and a 1015 mb thermal low was centered near Riverside.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
417pm PST Wednesday Dec 1 2021
Warm and dry conditions will continue.nue through at least early next week, warmest Sunday through Monday. Dense fog will impact coastal areas through at least Thursday. Gusty offshore winds will impact wind prone areas through Thursday, and again Sunday through Monday.
Short Term - Today through Saturday
High pressure aloft with locally breezy offshore flow will maintain a very shallow marine layer into Thursday. While this marine layer may deepen 100 or 200 feet tonight at the high weakens some, it will be plenty shallow enough to support another round of dense fog. With visibilities at the beach currently being reported in yards not miles, decided to issue a Dense Fog Advisory right now for coastal areas south of Point Conception with the anticipation of the fog pushing deeper into the coastal plains overnight. The Central Coast will be a little trickier. A southerly surge has brought the dense fog to some beaches already, but south to southeast flow overnight should keep it from pushing too far inland overnight. Just how far inland it gets would determine if a Dense Fog Advisory will be needed or not. Leaning on no at this point, but it is something for the next shift to assess. Temperatures will drop about 5 degrees tomorrow as a very weak upper level low encroaches the area late and pressure gradients turn weakly onshore, but it will remain 10-15 degrees above normal. The northeast winds from today will continue.nue into Thursday, but will be 5-10 mph weaker and less expansive as the pressure gradients weaken.
A couple of weak upper level lows will pass through the area Friday and Saturday. This should deepen the marine layer a little, which would push low clouds and fog into some valleys, and improve visibilities along most coasts. Temperatures will drop about 5 degrees, focused over the valleys, but we will remain well above normal. Winds will generally be light through Saturday, except for northwest gusts 15-25 mph picking up over the Central Coast and the western Santa Ynez Range.
Long Term - Sunday through Wednesday
Good agreement between the ensembles for a small but potent upper level trough pushing through Montana early Sunday and dump cold air into the Great Basin. Meanwhile, the narrow ridge of upper level high pressure will nose into northern California and turn the flow at middle and upper levels to northeasterly. This should all add up to gusty north to northeast flow over the region Sunday and Monday. This includes Los Angeles and Ventura Counties as would be expected, with EC Ensembles supporting gusts of 25-40 mph. This also includes the Central Coast where the northeast flow looks just as strong as their neighbors to the south, being closest to the upper level support. All of this flow will dry out the air, and all the ensembles suggest with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) under 0.3 inches. The marine layer and any fog makes sense to go away, except for maybe a little over Los Angeles County.
By late Monday, the picture is more muddy. Based on the various ensemble models, there may or may not be a shortwave trough moving through Nevada which would bring moderate to strong northwest to north winds Monday afternoon and night. The Antelope Valley, I-5 Corridor, and southwest Santa Barbara County would see gusts of 40 to 60 mph. There is equal chance of that not really happening. The uncertainty continues on Tuesday, which could a very deep marine layer with cool conditions, or weak offshore flow and warm conditions.
High confidence that winds and seas will remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level through Friday. Moderate confidence in widespread SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level NW winds from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island Saturday afternoon through at least Sunday.
Areas of dense fog with visibility of one nautical mile or less is likely across the waters south of Point Conception through the morning, possibly into the afternoon. A Marine Weather Statement is in effect through noon, and may need to be extended through the day if dense fog hangs around. Patchy to areas of dense fog will likely be in play again tonight through Thursday morning.
NOAA Los Angeles/Oxnard CA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CA...Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 10am PST Thursday for zones 39>41.
Hazard Potential Outlook (Saturday - Wednesday)
Large high tides may result in minor coastal flooding each morning through Monday. Gusty northeast winds will result in elevated fire weather conditions Sunday and Monday.