Point Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island CA between 60 and 150 NM Offshore Forecast
|Tonight...N Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 11 To 15 Ft.|
|Fri...N Winds Less Than 10 Kt, Becoming Variable. Seas 8 To 11 Ft.|
|Fri Night...N To Nw Winds Less Than 10 Kt, Increasing To 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 7 To 8 Ft.|
|Sat...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 6 To 8 Ft.|
|Sat Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 6 To 7 Ft.|
|Sun...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 6 To 7 Ft.|
|Sun Night...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 6 To 7 Ft.|
|Mon...N Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 7 To 10 Ft.|
|Mon Night...N Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 9 To 11 Ft.|
|Tue...N To Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 10 To 12 Ft.|
|Tue Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 9 To 11 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
440pm PST Thu Nov 26 2020
Gusty Santa Ana winds continue, peaking late tonight into Friday morning but continuing through at least Saturday. Afternoon temperatures will warm slightly into the weekend. Dry weather with periods of offshore flow will continue through next week.
.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...26/141 PM.
We're entering the peak of this Santa Ana wind event this afternoon for LA/Ventura Counties through early Friday before winds start to drop off. Still, breezy conditions expected through the weekend as offshore gradients linger in the 4-6mb range. Advisories may be needed in some valley/mtn areas beyond their current Friday afternoon expiration but will wait for additional guidance on that before committing. Without the upper support winds the stronger gusts will become more isolated but can't rule out some gusts to 45 mph through at least Saturday.
For SLO/SB Counties mainly quiet weather with some occasional northeast breezes.
Daytime temps will warm up a degree or two each day with temps in the mid 70s Sat/Sun. Chilly overnight though with the dry air and decreasing offshore winds. The Antelope Valley could see temps in the high teens for a few hours the next couple mornings and some wind protected coastal valleys will see temps near freezing.
.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...26/204 PM.
Looks like dry weather with varying degrees of offshore flow expected through next week. Gradients almost turn weakly onshore next Monday and Tuesday but then quickly trend strongly offshore by mid week as another trough drops through the Great Basin. It's an odd upper level pattern across the country and models are struggling with all the various upper lows so confidence in the specifics is low but either way it looks like a dry pattern with some amount of offshore flow for the foreseeable future, likely well into December. Daytime temps expected to remain at or above seasonal norms through the period. But chilly temps overnight will continue due to the very dry air mass in place.
Across the outer waters...moderate confidence in the current forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas will prevail through late tonight. There is a 60%-70% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level NE winds over the southern outer waters (PZZ676) Friday morning and again late Friday night and Saturday morning. Winds and seas should remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels Saturday afternoon through Sunday night. There will then be a 50% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level NW wind gusts at times Monday and Tuesday.
Across the nearshore waters of the Central Coast...moderate confidence in the current forecast. There is a 30% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level NE wind gusts tonight, and a 50% chance of these gusts at times Friday night through Saturday night. Winds and seas should then remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels Sunday through Tuesday.
Across the inner waters south of Point Conception...moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. Gusty NE winds to SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels will affect the area from the east Santa Barbara Channel southward tonight into Fri, with a 60%-70% chance of Gale Force wind gusts at times S of Ventura out to near Santa Catalina Island tonight. Hazardous short period steep wind waves are expected to develop as well. These conditions will affect northeast-facing harbor entrances such as Avalon Harbor and Two Harbors. Gusty NE winds to SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels will again develop in these areas Fri night into Saturday. Otherwise and elsewhere, winds and seas will be below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels through Tuesday.
A long-period northwest swell will bring high surf to beaches along the Central Coast through late tonight. Surf of 12 to 15 feet with local sets to 18 feet along west to northwest facing beaches should continue into early this evening then gradually subside overnight. Strong rip currents are likely and beach erosion is possible.
Most of the swell energy will avoid the southern California bight. Beaches south of Point Conception will have elevated surf and a high risk of rip currents into early this evening, but a high surf advisory is not needed for this area.
Red Flag Warnings now in effect for the L.A. and Ventura County Mountains, including the Santa Monicas, and the Santa Clarita and Ventura Valleys from 2pm Today through 6pm Saturday evening. Red Flag Warnings for the remainder of LA and Ventura Counties (except for the Antelope Valley) through 6pm Friday evening.
Moderate to locally strong Santa Ana winds will continue to increase through this evening, peaking tonight through Friday morning. The winds will weaken some but remain gusty Friday night and Saturday, and then remain locally breezy through Sunday. Wind gusts between 40 and 65 mph are expected over much of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties during the peak, with isolated gusts to 75 mph possible over the higher terrain. Meanwhile, humidities will lower sharply this afternoon and evening to 12 to 25 percent, lowering further to 8 to 15 percent on Friday, then to 5 to 15 percent Saturday through Sunday. Red Flag conditions will develop over much of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties by this afternoon and evening when the stronger winds and drier air coincide, then continue through Friday afternoon for most areas.
Low-end Red Flag criteria are expected Friday night through Saturday over the LA and Ventura mountains and the windiest valleys, including the Santa Clarita and Ventura Valleys. There is a growing potential for moderate Santa Ana winds and Red Flag conditions developing again next week over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, sometime Tuesday through Thursday.
We are urging the public to be extremely cautious with anything that can start a fire. Some ignition sources are obvious (campfires, welding equipment, cigarettes, fireworks) but others are less so (lawn trimmers, dragging trailer chains, firearms). Those living in wildland interfaces and areas vulnerable to wildfire should have a plan and be ready to evacuate if a fire starts. Any wildfire that starts has the potential to spread rapidly and exhibit long- range spotting due to the combination of very dry fuels, low humidity, and strong gusty winds.
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 3am PST Friday for zones 34-35. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 3pm PST Friday for zones 40-41. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Warning in effect until 3pm PST Friday for zones 44>46-53-54-88-547. (See LAXNPWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 6pm PST Friday for zones 240-241-547-548. (See LAXRFWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 6pm PST Saturday for zones 244>246-253-254-288. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3am PST Friday for zones 650-670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3am PST Friday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3pm PST Friday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (SUN-THU).
An extended dry and warmer pattern is expected Saturday through Monday with persistent elevated fire weather conditions. Another strong Santa Ana wind event is possible next Wednesday and Thursday.