Point Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island CA between 60 and 150 NM Offshore Forecast
|Today...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming N To Nw 10 To 15 Kt, Then, Becoming 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 8 To 10 Ft. Chance Of Rain.|
|Tonight...N To Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 8 To 11 Ft.|
|Mon...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming Nw 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 8 To 11 Ft.|
|Mon Night...N To Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 9 To 12 Ft.|
|Tue...N Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 10 To 13 Ft.|
|Tue Night...N Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 8 To 11 Ft.|
|Wed...N Winds Less Than 10 Kt. Seas 6 To 8 Ft.|
|Wed Night...Variable Winds Less Than 10 Kt, Becoming S To Sw. Seas 5 To 7 Ft.|
|Thu...S Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 6 To 10 Ft.|
|Thu Night...S Winds 20 To 30 Kt, Increasing To 25 To 35 Kt. Seas 9 To 15 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
418am PST Sunday Nov 27 2022
A cooling trend is expected through Monday. There will be a return to night through morning low clouds in some coastal areas tonight, with much more significant low cloud coverage west of the mountains Sunday night and Monday. Locally gusty northerly winds are possible Monday into Tuesday. It will remain fairly cool next week. There is a chance of rain by the end of the week.
Short Term - Today through Tuesday
Some patchy low clouds have pushed into southern portions of the Central Coast and Santa Ynez Valley, and another area pushed into coastal sections of L.A. County. The marine layer was very shallow, so there was some locally dense fog.
A weak short wave trough dropping south through the Great Basin has caused pressure gradients to become slightly more offshore this morning. Locally gusty NE winds in the mtns and valleys of L.A. and VTU Counties will increase and become a bit more widespread this morning, possibly spreading into coastal sections of Ventura County. However, winds are expected to remain safely below advisory levels.
Any low clouds should dissipate early this morning thanks to the weak offshore flow, then it will be a mostly sunny day with some high clouds floating about. Slight decreases in heigheights and thicknesses may be offshore by slightly stronger offshore gradients and a later seabreeze, so max temps today should not be too much difference than those on Sat in most areas west of the mountains. There will likely be some cooling in the mountains and the Antelope Valley.
A weak upper trough will approach the region from the west and an upper trough in the Pac NW will dig southward through Western U.S. tonight and Monday. Heigheights and thicknesses will fall quite a bit across the region, as will temps at 850 mb and 950 mb. Model cross sections show a rather quickly deepening marine layer tonight, and relative humidity field suggest that low clouds will become widespread in all coastal and valley areas overnight and early Mon, with clouds possibly reaching the coastal slopes. Model ensembles also bring light amounts of measurable rain to eastern L.A. County, suggesting that there could be some drizzle or very light rain Monday morning, especially in the foothills of L.A. County.
Expect slow clearing on Monday, especially across L.A. County, where some locations may remain mostly cloudy much of the day. There will be gusty southwest to west winds in the Antelope Valley and in the L.A. County mountains in the afternoon and evening, probably reaching advisory levels. Max temps will be down significantly in most areas Mon, to well below normal levels, and there will be no location in the forecast area lucky enough to reach 70 degrees.
Expect a mostly dry frontal system to move across the region late Monday afternoon and early Monday night. There is an outside chance it should bring some measurable precipitation to eastern L.A. County where moist cyclonic low level flow will be most favorable, and to the northern slopes. The 06Z run of the WRF actually now has some measurable precipitation on the northern slopes Monday night. Otherwise, skies will become partly cloudy Monday night, then mostly sunny on Tue. Behind the front, there will be some gusty, possibly advisory level northwest to north winds across portions of the southern SBA County and the I-5 Corridor Monday night. Winds will turn more northeasterly Tuesday morning, so some gusty winds may affect the mtns and valleys of L.A. and Ventura Counties. The northeast winds should remain below advisory levels Tue. Heigheights will rise a bit on Tue. Max temps will likely be up a few degrees west of the mountains due to height rises, increased sunshine, and offshore flow. However, cooling is likely in the mtns and Antelope Valley as low level cold advection dominates any minor height rises.
Long Term - Wednesday through Saturday
Still somewhat low confidence in the forecast later next week, though EPS solutions, particularly from the ECMWF, are trending wetter. The big issue and one that will likely still pose problems with the models the next couple days is the Rex Block north of Hawaii. While virtually all of the EC solutions and around half of the GEFS show rain, there is a huge disparity in the amounts. There is also a big difference in the timing in the various EPS solutions, which is likely in large part due to the Rex Block. Rain could start as early at late Thursday, or possibly not until late Saturday or Sunday in some areas. So the official rain chances remain on the smaller side (generally around 30 percent), due to these disparities and the fact that those percentages are based on rain falling in a 12 hour period. The chance of rain falling at some point between Friday and Sunday night is over 80% with the EC EPS and 50-70% for the GEFS. There is a potential for heavy rain with this system (again more so with the ECMWF) as PW's climb to over .8" and several EPS solutions between 1 and 1.2". The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) shows a 50-60% chance of rainfall greater than a half inch in a 24 hour period from late Saturday to late Sunday. At this point snow levels don't look super low, generally above 5500 feet, but several inches of snow are possible at the higher elevations.
Moderate confidence in the current forecast. Slightly higher confidence in wind forecast versus seas forecast. Winds will very likely increase through Monday night across the coastal waters with a widespread Small Craft Advisory likely by Monday evening.
For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands and along the Central Coast, there is an increasing chance of SCA level winds through Monday morning. The current SCA (Small Craft Advisory) headline runs until early Tuesday morning, but there is a 50-70 percent that SCA level winds will linger until Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning. There is a 40-60 percent chance of Gale force winds Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning, highest from near Point Conception south to west of the Channel Islands. Conditions should fall below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels for Wednesday, then there is a good chance of widespread SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions developing between late Thursday and Friday.
Inside the southern California bight, winds and seas should remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels through Monday morning, then there is a 60-70 percent chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds by Monday night and Tuesday. There is a 30 percent chance of Gale force winds, mainly over western portions. Conditions should fall below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels for Wednesday and Thursday, then there is a good chance of widespread SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions developing between late Thursday and Friday.
NOAA Los Angeles/Oxnard CA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3am Monday to 3am PST Tuesday for zones 645-676.
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3pm this afternoon to 3 am PST Tuesday for zone 670.
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9pm this evening to 3 AM PST Tuesday for zone 673.