Point Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island CA between 60 and 150 NM Offshore Forecast
| Tonight...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 8 To 9 Ft. |
| Sat...N Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 8 To 9 Ft. |
| Sat Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 8 To 9 Ft. |
| Sun...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 8 To 9 Ft. |
| Sun Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 8 To 9 Ft. |
| Mon...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 7 To 8 Ft. |
| Mon Night...N To Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 7 To 8 Ft. |
| Tue...N To Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 6 To 8 Ft. |
| Tue Night...N To Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 6 To 7 Ft. |
| Wed...N Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 6 To 7 Ft. |
| Wed Night...N Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 6 To 7 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion ...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 804pm PDT Fri September 4 2026 Synopsis 04/225 PM. Tropical Cyclone Marie, which will remain well offshore of SoCal, will bring impacts to the region over the weekend into early next week. Rain is favored late Saturday and Sunday focused over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. Increasing southerly swell will create hazardous surf conditions at the coasts. Short Term - Friday through Monday 04/703 PM. ***UPDATE*** A small-scale perturbation on the eastern peripheral of Hurricane Marie will move northward due to mainly the interaction of large- scale troughing situated along the west coast. This activity is expected to arrive later Saturday into Sunday. Widespread light rain showers with areas of heavier rainfall is likely especially under any thunderstorm (5-15% chc) that develops. The best chance for numerous rain showers is across LA county. Generally expecting rainfall amounts under 0.25" across LA/VTA counties. Cannot rule out rainfall totals of 0.50"-0.75" in a few local spots. Interestingly enough, a few CAMs are indicating that a "dry-slot" may develop across Ventura county which could reduce rain shower coverage a bit. This does seem like a reasonable possibility due to the eastward location of the aforementioned perturbation, and the well-defined shortwave rounding the base of the trough on Sunday. Not perfect timing and moisture profiles are somewhat limited over eastern SB county, but this may result in a better chance for showers and thunderstorms across that area. But confidence is still pretty low as short term guidance is bouncing around trying to handle this feature. Thus, have not made any significant chances in POPs across VT and SB counties. Still want to emphasis that confidence is pretty good with current precipitation forecast across LA County. Have reduced high temperatures about 5 degrees across LA county due to widespread showers and cloud cover. Good consenus across guidance that LA Basin will likely struggle to get out of the low 80s on Sunday. ***From Previous Discussion*** Hurricane Marie is currently 950 NM due south of Los Angeles, and is forecasted to travel in the northwest direction over the next several days. Marie will remain well offshore of the California Coast, but will still be able to send some weather impacts to SoCal. The most significant hazards from Marie will be seen across the beaches where very hazardous ocean swimming conditions are expected for the Labor Day holiday weekend. Potentially deadly rip currents and high surf is expected for south-facing beaches. Please consider swimming near a lifeguard and follow their guidance. Additionally, moderate coastal flooding and coastal erosion is expected for vulnerable south-facing beaches. See the beaches section below for details on the coastal hazards. As for the weather conditions over land, expect increased cloud cover, elevated humidity and periods of light to moderate rain. Rain will be possible as early as late Saturday, becoming likely (50-70% chance) at least for Los Angeles County early Sunday morning into Sunday night, with lower chances to the north. Mositure from Marie will funnel into the area along the bottom of a broad upper level trough, and PWATs (Precipitable Waters) may approach 2 inches in portions of the region. Lapse rates aloft however limit some of the convective potential, so despite the extremely anomalous amount of moisture rain totals are likely to mostly 0.25 inches or less, except for local amounts of 0.50 to 0.75 inches possible in Los Angeles and Ventura County (especially foothills) and near thunderstorms or heavier showers. There is a 5-15% chance of thunderstorms on Sunday focused over Los Angeles County. One impact of note is that roads will be quite slick with any wetting rainfall due to the build up of oils over the last several months. Temperatures will feel warmer over the weekend with the additional humidity but still remain within a few degrees of normal. Overnight lows could be quite warm and only into the 70s for our southern coasts and coastal valleys where the topical mositure will be the greatest. Monday temperatures will warm a few more degrees but humidity and rain chances will decrease. Long Term - Tuesday through Friday 04/232 PM. In the long term, there is uncertainty in the upper level pattern, especially mid week onward. Tuesday, there is moderate confidence in 500 mb heigheights rising over the region, along with continued warming temperatures to a few degrees above normal at the coasts and coastal plains, and a few degrees below normal farther inland. By Wednesay, Southwest California may become sandwiched between a ridge to the southeast and a trough (that will have entrained moisture from the remnants of Marie) to the west. This will keep the door open for additional tropical moisture. The associated southwest flow aloft may bring unsettled weather, although timing, location, and potential impacts are uncertain that far out. Marine 04/741 PM. For the Outer Waters, moderate confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Saturday night, there is a 20-30% chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds. For Sunday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds. For Monday through Wednesday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Saturday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels. On Sunday and Monday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds in the afternoon and evening hours. For Tuesday and Wednesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the southern Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels today through Wednesday. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there will be 50-60% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds late Sunday afternoon and evening. Tropical moisture will stream over the area Sunday through Tuesday, bringing the threat of showers to the coastal waters. There is a 15% chance of thunderstorms Sunday afternoon for the waters south of the Channel Islands. A large southeast to south swell will also impact the area, causing increased currents and surges in the vulnerable harbors. Beaches 04/740 PM. Significant coastal impacts are expected across Southern California beaches this Labor Day weekend. A large southeast to south swell from Hurricane Marie will move into the coastal waters this weekend with swell heigheights of 5-8 feet and a period around 13 seconds. High surf conditions are expected on south-facing beaches of Ventura and Los Angeles counties, peaking at 5-8 feet with local sets to 10 feet on Sunday and Monday. The Santa Barbara South Coast will be largely protected from this swell, but there are some small windows of southeasterly and southwesterly energy that could cause boosts in the waves. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES remain in place for Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, with BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENTS (a step below high surf advisories) in effect for Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties. High tides will also be increasing through early next week. Due to a variety of reasons, the actual observed tides have been running 6 inches above predictions for sometime now. The south swell will likely boost that enhancement. As a result, high tides should exceed 7 feet by Monday. Adding large tides with the south swell will result in a moderate risk for coastal flooding over the vulnerable south-facing shores. Areas of most concern include Avalon, Long Beach (Alamitos Peninsula), and Oxnard to Malibu (including Point Mugu). COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES remain in effect for Los Angeles and Ventura Counties where the best combination of tides and waves will occur, but Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties could also see some isolated issues. NOAA Los Angeles/Oxnard CA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CA...Coastal Flood Advisory in effect from 6am Saturday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect from 6am Saturday to 11pm PDT Tuesday for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect from 6am PDT Saturday through Tuesday evening for zones 340-346-349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...NONE. https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox |
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