Point Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island CA between 60 and 150 NM Offshore Forecast
| Tonight...S To Sw Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 9 To 16 Ft. Rain. |
| Fri...W To Sw Winds Less Than 10 Kt. Seas 11 To 16 Ft. |
| Fri Night...N To Ne Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 10 To 13 Ft. |
| Sat...N To Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 7 To 10 Ft. |
| Sat Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 6 To 8 Ft. |
| Sun...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 6 To 7 Ft. |
| Sun Night...S Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming W To Sw. Seas 6 To 10 Ft. |
| Mon...W Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw. Seas 9 To 16 Ft. |
| Mon Night...N To Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 11 To 16 Ft. |
| Tue...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 10 To 13 Ft. |
| Tue Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 9 To 11 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 224pm PST Thu Nov 13 2025 Synopsis 13/109 PM. A large storm system will move into the Central Coast this afternoon and will continue further south tonight into Friday. The storm will generate periods of moderate to heavy rain this evening through Saturday, and possibly into early next week. Flooding of roadways and burn scars is possible, especially Friday and Saturday. Short Term - Today through Sunday 13/217 PM. ...AT LEAST 3-6 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAJOR IMPACTS MAINLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... Confidence is increasing that a major storm system will impact the area with periods of heavy rain tonight through Saturday due to a slow moving system that is cutting off from the jet stream and has PW's approaching 1.5" which is extremely high for this time of year. This has been a complicated system but computer projections continue to indicate two distinct periods of rain moving through the area. The first being tonight into Friday morning, mainly west of LA County and heaviest across southern Santa Barbara County and the Ventura County mountains where up to 3 inches of rain is possible with rain rates between a half and one inch per hour. The northern portions of the Santa Lucia Mountains could also see around 3 inches of rain through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible as well that will contribute to the higher rain rates but no severe weather is expected with this first impulse. The first band of rain will slowly shift into eastern Ventura county and LA County Friday and Friday night but rain rates are expected to decrease as the this band moves farther away from the main upper low and into less unstable air. Not expecting any significant issues other than some wet roadways during this period. The second part of the storm Saturday into Saturday night has the potential to be the most significant, though there is also much more uncertainty with it due to the upper low being cutoff. A majority of the ensemble solutions do show an additional 1-3 inches of rain falling as the main upper low pivots towards the the coast, though it's worth noting that there are roughly 10% of the solutions that show as much as an additional 3-5 inches of rain. Forecast soundings from Santa Maria to Long Beach indicate favorable profiles for thunderstorms and severe weather, which would include a small chance of weak tornados, strong and gusty winds, very heavy rain (possibly even locally exceeding one inch per hour), and hail. The ultimate path of the upper low will likely determine if and where these occur but for now they are all in play for all areas. For now, Flood Watches have been issued for everywhere south of SLO County except for the Cuyama Valley. There will be breaks in the rainfall, sometimes for several hours and rainfall is expected to taper off by later Saturday night, assuming the upper low behaves and moves into Nevada Sunday afternoon. Rain chances continue in the forecast through Sunday as many of the ensembles maintain enough low level moisture and instability to trigger some light precipitation but there should be no significant impacts after early Sunday morning. Long Term - Monday through Thursday 13/222 PM. The rainy pattern is expected to continue into early next week as models indicate a much weaker system arriving Monday with amounts mostly under a half inch. Can't rule out some light showers continuing into Tuesday as the upper low moves east but lingering moisture remains. Good confidence that there will be little day to day changes in the temperatures. Max temps will mostly be in the lower to mid 60s across the csts/vlys which is 6 to 12 degrees below normals. Marine 13/151 PM. For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Saturday, high confidence in combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas for all of the Outer Waters. Additionally, there is a 60-80% chance of Gale force southeasterly winds through this evening. On Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels. For Monday through Tuesday, there is a 70-90% chance of a combination of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds and seas. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Friday night, high confidence in a combination of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds and seas. Additionally, there is a 50-60% chance of Gale force winds through this evening. For Saturday and Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels. For Monday and Tuesday, there is a 60-80% chance of a combination of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds and seas. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Friday night, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds across the Santa Barbara Channel with winds and seas remaining below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels elsewhere. For Saturday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level southeasterly winds. On Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels. For Monday through Tuesday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds. There is a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms across the coastal waters through Saturday night. For tonight and Friday morning, the thunderstorm threat will exist from around Point Conception northward. For Friday night through Saturday night, the chances for thunderstorms will shift to the coastal waters south of Point Conception. Any thunderstorms that develop would be capable of producing brief heavy rain, gusty and erratic outflow winds, locally rough seas and possible waterspouts. Beaches 13/1231 PM. A moderately long period west-northwest swell will bring hazardous surf conditions to portions of Southwest California late this evening through at least Saturday morning. In addition to the west-northwest swell, a storm system will bring gusty southerly winds which will add a southerly wind swell component to the surf. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES remain in effect for the Central Coast and the Ventura county beaches. Please refer to the LAXCFWLOX and LAXSRFLOX for details. There is a 20-30% chance that HIGH SURF ADVISORIES may be needed for the LA county beaches, beginning Friday morning. NOAA Los Angeles/Oxnard CA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CA...Flood Watch in effect from late Friday night through Saturday evening for zones 88-346>348-353>358-362-366>375-377>383-548. (See LAXFFALOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 6pm PST this evening for zones 340>348. High Surf Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 9 AM PST Saturday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). Flood Watch now in effect from midnight PST tonight through Saturday evening for zones 349>352-376. (See LAXFFALOX). High Surf Advisory in effect from 3am Friday to 9am PST Saturday for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 9pm PST this evening for zones 645-670-673. Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3pm PST Friday for zone 650. Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3am PST Saturday for zone 676. https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox |
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