Point St. George to Point Arena between 150 and 250 NM Offshore Forecast
|Today...N To Nw Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 8 To 10 Ft.|
|Tonight...N Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 7 To 10 Ft.|
|Sat...N Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 8 To 12 Ft.|
|Sat Night...N Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 9 To 13 Ft.|
|Sun...N Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 8 To 13 Ft.|
|Sun Night...N Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 7 To 12 Ft.|
|Mon...N Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 6 To 11 Ft.|
|Mon Night...N To Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 7 To 9 Ft.|
|Tue...N Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 8 To 9 Ft.|
|Tue Night...N Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 7 To 10 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Eureka CA
421am PDT Fri September 29 2023
A weak frontal system will bring widespread, mostly light rain to the area today. Lingering interior showers are expected on Saturday. Rainfall amounts will generally range from a half inch in the north to less than a tenth in the south. Dry weather is forecast to return Sunday persisting into next week. Breezy north winds are expected along the coast for the weekend. Temperatures will be near normal through the weekend, with warmer conditions next week.
A digging shortwave moving towards the area in the west to northwest flow is creating a surface low off the Oregon coast. By this afternoon models show it has deepening into an upper level trough over the west coast. This stalls out over the area tonight. Saturday this trough edges slightly inland and starts to become a closed low. This rather complicated pattern will bring the potential for showers across the area today. Models have started trending back down on the precipitation amounts. The deterministic models are now only showing a few tenths of an inch of rain and rather spotter coverage. There is a also the potential for interior Del Norte county to see a thunderstorm or two. MU CAPE is only 100 to 200 j/kg and lapse rates are only 6 to 7 C/KM. There some decent dynamics with the deepening trough so have gone with the NBM thunder threat with a slight chance in interior Del Norte county.
Saturday the upper level low moves inland over the CA/NV border. Late Friday night and into Saturday this will bring gusty winds to much of the area. Gusts of 20 to 30 mph are possible along the coast and in the near coastal areas Saturday afternoon. The fire weather threat will be limited due the relatively high RH values. Saturday afternoon there is the potential for some more showers and even a thunderstorm over the interior areas. These don't look to be widespread at this time. MU CAPE is 100 to 300 j/kg, but it is fairly shallow limiting the thunder potential.
Saturday night into Sunday north to northeast winds are expected to remain elevated over the higher terrain. RH recoveries will be good in most areas, RH remaining over 60 percent. The valleys that manage to decouple from these stronger winds have the potential to see frost. The valleys of Trinity county are most likely to see frost or freezing temperatures, but other areas may see frost as well. For now have gone a couple degrees below the NBM in the interior valleys, but this will need to be monitored as it gets closer.
Sunday night into Monday the north to northeast winds will diminish slightly, however the RH recoveries will only be around 40 to 50 percent in the higher terrain of eastern Mendocino and eastern Lake counties. Highs monday afternoon will warm into the low 80s in the interior valleys with mid 60s along the coast.
Tuesday through Thursday the offshore flow continues, but gets fairly weak. High pressure builds into the Pacific Northwest bringing warmer inland temperatures. This will bring many of the interior valleys back into the low 90s. Even the coast may warm with highs in the upper 60s or possible the 70s. This offshore flow may be strong enough to keep coast mainly clear, although confidence diminishes on this as the inland areas heat up by mid week. MKK
Relatively calm southwesterly wind will persist today with seas below 5 feet. Calm conditions will be short lived, however, as a well defined surface cold front sweeps across the waters late tonight into early Saturday morning. Northerly winds will rapidly increase behind the front with gusts up to 40 kts in the outer waters by sunrise on Saturday. Short period seas will rapidly build alongside the gale force winds with steep waves 12 to 15 ft at 10 seconds in the outer waters. The strongest waves will be in the southern waters thanks to the longer fetch. Conditions will be calmer in the inner waters, though high resolution models are pulling high winds very close to shore from Crescent City down to Trinidad Head and then again around Cape Mendocino. A gale watch was added to the northern inner waters to cover this possibility. Strong northerly winds will slightly weaken late on Sunday though enhanced north winds along with steep seas are expected to persist into early next week. /JHW
North to northeast winds of 10 to 15 mph are expected to develop late Friday night into Saturday morning along the higher terrain of the coastal counties, however RH will be near 100 percent. Saturday afternoon winds will increase with gusts of 20 to 30 mph in the coastal counties and up the river valleys. RH will remain over 50 percent in most areas.
Saturday night into Sunday morning the the higher terrain will see local gusts to 20 to 30 mph, but RH will generally remain over 60 percent. Next week winds will slowly diminish however the RH will diminish as well. At this point Monday monday morning it looks like eastern Mendocino and Lake counties will see elevated fire danger. RH recoveries over the higher terrain will only be around 40 percent winds look to be 15 to 20 mph. For now have highlighted this in the FWF. Winds will remain elevated elsewhere, but RH will be higher. The pattern is expected to continue into mid week, however winds will gradually diminish. MKK
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon PDT Saturday for PZZ450.
Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for PZZ450.
Small Craft Advisory from 3am Saturday to 3am PDT Sunday for PZZ455.
Small Craft Advisory from 9pm this evening to 3am PDT Saturday for PZZ470-475.
Gale Warning from 3am Saturday to 9am PDT Sunday for PZZ470.
Gale Warning from 3am Saturday to 3pm PDT Sunday for PZZ475.