Stake Island, LA to Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River out 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. |
| Tonight...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. |
| Saturday...Southeast Winds Around 5 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. |
| Saturday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. |
| Sunday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming North 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Feet, Building To 3 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Sunday Night...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 5 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then A Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Monday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet, Subsiding To 2 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet In The Afternoon. |
| Monday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. |
| Tuesday...East Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. |
| Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 325pm CDT Fri April 19 2024 Long Term (Sunday through Thursday night) Issued at 323pm CDT Fri April 19 2024 Models show a shortwave on the backside of the northern trough moving on a much farther south trajectory, passing through the mid to lower Mississippi Valley Sunday afternoon. This is what'll be needed to finally drive a cold front completely through the CWA (County Warning Area) on Sunday morning. Ample moisture in place with lift from the front will be a good setup for increasing showers. Model soundings today compared to previous days show much less instability anywhere through the column. Thus, thinking it'll be fairly tough for much thunder to develop and therefore now only have isolated thunderstorms in the zone forecasts. Overall Quantitative Precipitation Forecast shouldn't be impactful generally speaking with areal amounts under an inch. Coverage forecast of 80% could still be too low. This cold front won't be particularly strong being that a shortwave it driving it, so only looking at a day of below normal temps with moderating conditions quickly returning as well as above normal temps Tuesday onward. Precip forecast next week continues to be on the lower end of confidence as models not doing a great job of resolving weaker troughs that may pass through the midsection of the country. So will just be going with deterministic NBM POPs which with the latest forecast package is on the drier side. Marine Issued at 323pm CDT Fri April 19 2024 A surface high pressure is centered in the western Atlantic and extending across the Gulf of Mexico. The western periphery of this ridge is being broken down by approaching surface trough to the north of the area. That'll result in a weakening of onshore flow with most of the coastal waters becoming light and variable tonight. Current global model runs indicate that a cold front will move through the coast waters Sunday morning. Cold air advection won't be particularly strong with this boundary and thus likely only looking at about 12 to 18 hours of Exercise Caution to low-end Small Craft conditions. NOAA New Orleans LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. |
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