Boothville, LA to Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...West Winds 20 To 30 Knots Rising To 25 To 35 Knots In The Late Evening. Seas 5 To 8 Feet With Occasional Seas To 10 Feet. Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Waves Or Seas Building To 10 To 14 Feet With Occasional Seas To 15 Feet. Dominant Period 5 Seconds After Midnight. Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms Early In The Evening.|
|Sunday...West Winds 30 To 35 Knots Becoming Northwest 20 To 30 Knots Late In The Afternoon. Seas 10 To 14 Feet With Occasional Seas To 15 Feet. Dominant Period 5 Seconds.|
|Sunday Night...Northwest Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 6 To 10 Feet With Occasional Seas To 11 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Waves Or Seas Subsiding To 4 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas To 8 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds After Midnight.|
|Monday...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas To 6 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds.|
|Monday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Northeast After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds.|
|Tuesday...East Winds Near 10 Knots Becoming Southeast In The Afternoon. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds.|
|Tuesday Night...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds.|
|Wednesday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Chance Of Sprinkles In The Afternoon.|
|Wednesday Night...Southwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Northwest After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Chance Of Showers.|
|Thursday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas To 6 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Chance Of Showers.|
|Thursday Night...North Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 4 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas To 9 Feet. Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Light Rain.|
| Synopsis for Pascagoula to SW Pass Mississippi - GMZ501|
Synopsis for SW Pass Mississippi River to Atchafalaya River- GMZ500
858 PM CST Sat Jan 15 2022
A strong cold front is moving through coastal waters this evening and tonight followed by high pressure building in for the early to middle parts of next week.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1149pm CST Sat Jan 15 2022
AVIATION Updated for 06z TAF issuance.
/issued 400pm CST Sat Jan 15 2022/
SHORT TERM... Tonight through Monday... Tonight, an upper level low pressure system will dominate the pattern. A cold front will continue to be moving through the area, which will enhance rain chances for our eastern areas. Some thunder will be possible as this system moves through the Mississippi Coast and eastern portions of SE Louisiana during the early evening hours. After the front moves through this evening, strong northwesterly flow and upper level convergence will advect cold and dry air into the region and help stabilize the environment. Looking at the models, wind speeds along the southshore areas will be breezy (20-30mph sustained), so a wind advisory is in effect from 6PM this evening through noon Sunday. Lingering cloud cover overnight will provide a low level moisture deck which, when combined with this strong cold air advection, will allow for the potential to see snow flurries in our SW MS counties overnight tonight, especially late this evening into early Sunday. Don't worry though because the ground temperatures will not be freezing at that time just yet, so the flurries will not stick to the ground. Lows overnight tonight are forecast to be in the mid 30s to upper 30s, since cloud cover will help to moderate the temperatures a small amount.
Sunday and Monday, upper level ridging will dominate the pattern. Northerly to northwesterly surface winds will continue to enhance cold and dry air advection into the area. Upper level convergence will act to continue introducing sinking and stable air into the environment. Rain chances will be low to nonexistent Sunday and Monday, looking at the models. Thanks to the strong cold air advection, lows Monday morning are still going to feel chilly and are forecast to be in the low 30s to upper 30s. MSW
Long Term Tuesday through Friday... Tuesday, a weak shortwave upper level trough is expected to influence the area and zonal flow aloft will dominate the pattern. Tuesday will mainly be a transitional day for the atmosphere. Surface winds will transition to southerly flow, which will allow for warm air and moisture to be reintroduced into the environment. Some upper level divergence will allow for some lifting to occur as well in the environment. Rain is not expected Tuesday, looking at the models.
Wednesday into Thursday, a shortwave upper level trough is expected to move through the area. Southerly surface winds will act to enhance warm air advection and moisture advection into the area, which will increase instability in the environment. Weak low level convergence ahead of the front will allow for some lifting in the environment. Shear looking at the models seems decent (50-55kts) and the front should be able to provide some dynamic forcing to see some stronger storms. Gusty sub-severe winds (30-60mph) and lightning will be possible inside of stronger storms. The models are still in disagreement on the timing and strength of the system, so it will be worth watching as we move through the beginning of the week.
Thursday into Friday is even more uncertain in the models. Model consensus is that zonal flow will dominate the upper level pattern Thursday and Friday. Strong cold air advection behind the front Thursday into Friday and northerly surface winds will help to stabilize the environment. Lingering cloud cover will help to moderate temperatures some, but based on the current models, lows on Friday morning are forecast to be in the upper 20s to upper 30s. A shortwave upper level system is forecast to influence the area Friday, based on the general model consensus. This could definitely change as we move through the week and patterns become more fleshed out. Upper level convergence will act to enhance the sinking and stable air in the environment, however. And northerly to northeasterly surface winds will advect cold air and dry air into the area. Looking at the models, some rain may be possible along the coastal areas as the shortwave moves through the region, but rain chances will remain low for most of the area as parameters are not favorable for storms. MSW
AVIATION... 06Z TAF Package... All precipitation has moved out of the area. Terminals will be primarily MVFR (Marginal Visual Flight Rules) but could swing up to VFR or down to IFR at times. Ceilings will remain low until late into the forecast period where they will slowly but steadily begin to rise. In addition, gusty winds up to 30-35 knots are possible until the clouds begin clearing out. Skies are anticipated to clear out late tomorrow night. -BL
Tonight, winds will be very strong (30-35 kts) and northerly. A Gale Warning is in effect from 6PM this evening through the afternoon hours tomorrow. Tomorrow winds will be strong (25-30 kts) and northerly to northwesterly and decreasing through the day. Monday, winds will be moderate to strong (15-20 kts) and northerly. Tuesday, winds will be moderate (<15 knots) and transitioning from northerly to southerly. Wednesday, winds will be southerly and moderate (15-20 kts). Thursday and Friday, winds will be northerly and strong (15-25 kts). Saturday, winds will be northerly to northeasterly and strong (15-20 kts). Wave heigheights will correspond to the wind speeds. MSW
NOAA New Orleans LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
LA...Wind Advisory until noon CST Sunday for LAZ060-061-063-064- 066>070-077-078.
GM...Gale Warning until 6pm CST Sunday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538- 550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...None. GM...Gale Warning until 6pm CST Sunday for GMZ532-534-536-538-550- 552-555-557-570-572-575-577.