Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to Port Fourchon, LA 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
| Tonight...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 2 Feet At 5 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Late This Evening. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight. |
| Monday...East Winds Around 5 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: South 2 Feet At 7 Seconds And Northeast 1 Foot At 4 Seconds. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Monday Night...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 2 Feet At 3 Seconds And South 2 Feet At 5 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening. |
| Tuesday...Northeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 2 Feet At 4 Seconds And South 2 Feet At 6 Seconds. |
| Tuesday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet In The Evening, Then 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: Northeast 2 Feet At 4 Seconds And South 1 Foot At 5 Seconds, Becoming Northeast 1 Foot At 4 Seconds And South 1 Foot At 5 Seconds. |
| Wednesday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: Northeast 1 Foot At 4 Seconds And South 1 Foot At 5 Seconds. |
| Wednesday Night...East Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming Northwest After Midnight. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: South 1 Foot At 5 Seconds And Northeast 1 Foot At 6 Seconds. |
| Thursday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 2 Feet At 6 Seconds. |
| Thursday Night...East Winds Around 5 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: East 1 Foot At 5 Seconds. |
| Friday...East Winds Around 5 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: East 1 Foot At 4 Seconds. |
| Friday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Or Less, Then Around 2 Feet After Midnight. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 112am CDT Monday May 11 2026 .SHORT TERM... (Now through Wednesday) Issued at 105am CDT Monday May 11 2026 Main upper low remains over eastern Canada. There is a shortwave this morning over Oklahoma and east Texas. An upper ridge was over the Intermountain West northeastward into the Canadian Prairie Provinces. Another upper trough was off the Pacific Coast. At the surface, a frontal boundary extended from Nashville to near Alexandria to San Antonio. Most thunderstorm activity at midnight was over Texas, but there were scattered showers and thunderstorms between Jackson and Hattiesburg moving southeast. Temperatures locally at midnight were in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Our airmass locally remains fairly moist and unstable, with precipitable water values near 1.5 inches, which is around the 75th percentile. That, however, is considerably lower than the nearly 2 inch precipitable water values we had Friday night/Saturday when the heaviest rain occurred. We do have one more round of showers and thunderstorms to contend with as the shortwave over Oklahoma and Texas, along with the frontal boundary, still has to transit the area this afternoon and tonight. Most of the convection allowing models don't show much development of thunderstorms until around midday, as a fairly extensive cirrus deck may slow heating a bit. Convective temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The main concerns with any strong thunderstorms will be potential for damaging winds, although marginally severe hail can't entirely be ruled out. While we don't anticipate the type of rainfall amounts we saw Friday and Saturday, as saturated as the ground is in most of the area, it won't take nearly as much rain to cause issues. Current estimates are for around an inch of rainfall with locally higher amounts. Since much of the area has had some time to drain since Saturday's heavy rain, we should be able to handle forecast rain amounts. Rain should end during the evening, if not sooner. Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to be dry with mostly sunny skies. Highs should get well into the 80s, and may even touch 90 on Wednesday. Overnight lows will be in the 60s. Long Term (Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 105am CDT Monday May 11 2026 Little change in thinking from the previous forecast packages as a strong deep layer ridge axis dominates the region through Saturday night. Ample subsidence in the mid and upper levels will both warm temperatures and lower humidity aloft. The end result will be a very strong mid-level capping inversion around 700mb that will effectively limit cloud development to 10k feet or less through the end of the week. These fair weather cumulus clouds will form each afternoon during peak daytime heating hours. In the low levels, an onshore flow will be in place, and this will allow dewpoints to gradually increase through the week. As a result, despite the very dry air in place aloft, conditions will turn increasingly warm and muggy as we move through the long term period. Temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 80s each afternoon and max heat index values will peak near 90 degrees. Given the early time period for this heat, there is a minor to moderate heat risk for portions of the area on Friday and Saturday. Overnight lows will provide some relief as clear skies allow for decent radiational cooling each night. Overnight lows will provide some respite as they dip into the low to mid 60s over inland areas the upper 60s along the coast each night through the weekend. Light winds and saturated soils will also be conducive to patchy fog development each night, especially over more inland areas. There are some minor model differences that arise as we move into Sunday and Sunday night. The GFS (Global Forecast System) keeps the strong mid to upper level ridge axis in place over the area resulting in a continued dry and warm forecast. However, the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) is now showing the ridge axis shifting slightly to the east. This weakens the mid-level inversion just enough to support some isolated shower and thunderstorm activity Sunday afternoon during peak heating hours. For now, the forecast continues persistence indicating a dry and warm pattern through the entire weekend. Marine Issued at 105am CDT Monday May 11 2026 South to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots will persist overnight. Anticipating one more rounds of storms this afternoon and evening with some strong to severe storms possible across marine waters. Main threats will be wind gusts greater than 34 knots and waterspouts. A frontal boundary will move into the waters Monday night, bringing moderate offshore winds through Tuesday. Otherwise, marine conditions through the rest of the workweek appear to remain rather benign. NOAA New Orleans LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. |
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