Marine Weather Net

Altamaha Sound, GA to Fernandina Beach, FL 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

S
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

MONDAY

S
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

MONDAY NIGHT

S
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TUESDAY

S
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ470 Forecast Issued: 841 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022

Tonight...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With A Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Monday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 Feet With A Dominant Period 9 Seconds.
Monday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With A Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening.
Tuesday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 Feet.
Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet.
Wednesday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet.
Wednesday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet.
Thursday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Thursday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Friday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
854pm EDT Sunday May 22 2022

Convective coverage this evening was less than anticipated, only a handful of storms developed, none of which have been severe. This was most likely due to the influence of high pressure ridging over the area helping to suppress convection in our area and keep the majority of the convection to our west and north. Isolated storms and a few showers remain in the area, but will be dwindling over the next couple hours. After precipitation ends tonight, winds will become calm, skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy, and there is a low chance that some light patchy fog may develop in inland SE GA and the Suwannee Valley. Lows tonight will be similar to last night in the upper 60s and lower 70s. A frontal boundary will approach the area Monday bringing scattered to numerous showers and storms during the afternoon and evening, precipitation chances Monday afternoon will be highest in inland SE GA and the Suwannee Valley.

22pm EDT]... .NEAR TERM [through Monday]... Short-term, high resolution guidance continues to suggest that convection will develop and increase in coverage and intensity across inland portions of our region through the early to mid- evening hours. However, it remains to be seen whether ridging aloft, the aforementioned SAL (Saharan Air Layer) and associated subsidence is too close to our area for significant convective development. Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible given plenty of surface-based CAPE already in place and steep lapse rates in the 850-500 millibar layer (5,000 feet to 20,000 feet). Stronger activity will be capable of producing downburst winds of 40-60 mph, small hail, frequent lightning strikes and heavy downpours. Activity may linger through around midnight given the late start to convective initiation over our region. Debris cloudiness will likely linger overnight following this evening's convection, and lows will only fall to the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Ridging aloft will remain centered near or just off of Cape Canaveral on Monday, and the frontal boundary over the southeastern states will stall as it encounters the ridge. South- southwesterly flow aloft should continue to direct rounds of strong convection developing over the northern Gulf of Mexico towards the western Suwannee Valley and inland southeast GA, where the Storm Prediction Center has placed a marginal severe weather risk for Monday. The primary threats will continue to be downburst winds of 40-60 mph, small hail, frequent lightning strikes, and heavy downpours. Localized flooding may become a concern over portions of inland southeast GA if downpours train over the same locations repeatedly. Convective outflows should then shift activity eastward along I-10 and also towards coastal southeast GA by the late afternoon and early evening hours, while subsidence from the nearby ridge likely keeps convective coverage isolated for locations south of a line from Gainesville to St. Augustine. Highs on Monday should reach the upper 80s to lower 90s before convective coverage and cloud cover increases during the afternoon hours.

.SHORT TERM [Monday Night through Wednesday Night]... The axis of Atlantic ridging will begin to lift northward on Monday night, placing our region within a deepening low level south-southeasterly flow pattern. Troughing currently over the lower Mississippi Valley and the western Gulf of Mexico will also slowly lift northeastward, traversing the Deep South on Tuesday and Tuesday evening. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across inland southeast GA on Tuesday afternoon and evening as this trough makes its closest approach to our area, with scattered afternoon and evening convection possible across the Suwannee Valley and dry weather expected across most of north central and coastal northeast FL closer to the slowly retreating ridge. Highs on Tuesday will again climb to the upper 80s and lower 90s, with breezy onshore winds cooling temperatures off during the mid to late afternoon hours along the Atlantic coast. Lows on Monday and Tuesday nigheights will again only fall to the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Convective coverage is expected to decrease in coverage on Wednesday as deep troughing shifts slowly eastward from the Rockies and through the Plains States, keeping ridging aloft in place locally. Deepening south-southeasterly winds will advect a slightly drier air mass northwestward across our area, as PWATs fall to around 1.5 inches or even a little less. Only isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening convection is forecast to develop at inland locations, with coastal locations remaining mostly dry, although onshore winds could advect an isolated shower or two onshore by Wednesday night. Highs on Wednesday should tick upward slightly to the low and mid 90s well inland, while onshore winds keep coastal highs generally in the upper 80s. Lows on Wednesday night will only fall to the upper 60s and lower 70s.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Saturday Night]... A deep trough traversing the Plains states during the midweek time frame will become negatively tilted as it pivots across the Ozarks and the Tennessee Valley on Thursday and Thursday night, with long term models then suggesting that the base of this trough will cut off near our region over Memorial Day weekend. This deep trough will push a cold front into the southeastern states by Thursday afternoon, with numerous afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms forecast to develop across inland southeast GA, with scattered thunderstorms likely developing elsewhere along sea breeze and other mesoscale boundaries. This front may cross the Altamaha/Ocmulgee/Alapaha/Suwannee Rivers by Friday before it stalls towards the weekend, which will shift coverage of numerous showers and thunderstorms to northeast and north central FL by Friday afternoon and evening. Increasing convective coverage should keep highs mostly in the mid to upper 80s later this week, with lows remaining in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Cooler and drier air may briefly filter into inland southeast GA by Friday night, with the potential for lows falling to the low and mid 60s. The stalling frontal boundary and upper troughing nearby should keep at least scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for Saturday across northeast and north central FL. Inland highs should approach 90, with coastal highs in the mid 80s due to the afternoon sea breeze moving inland.

NOAA Jacksonville FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. GA...None. AM...None.