Marine Weather Net

Altamaha Sound, GA to Fernandina Beach, FL 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast


REST OF TONIGHT

N
WINDS
25 - 30
KNOTS

SUNDAY

NW
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

SUNDAY NIGHT

NNW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

MONDAY

NW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ470 Forecast Issued: 927 PM EST Sat Nov 16 2019

GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM EST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
Rest Of Tonight...North Winds 25 To 30 Knots With Frequent Gusts To Gale Force. Seas 12 To 17 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 22 Feet, Subsiding To 10 To 15 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 19 Feet After Midnight. Dominant Period 10 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers.
Sunday...North Northwest Winds 20 To 25 Knots With Occasional Gusts To Gale Force. Seas 10 To 15 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 19 Feet, Subsiding To 9 To 12 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 15 Feet In The Afternoon. Dominant Period 9 Seconds.
Sunday Night...North Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 8 To 11 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 14 Feet. Dominant Period 12 Seconds.
Monday...West Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 6 To 9 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 11 Feet. Dominant Period 12 Seconds.
Monday Night And Tuesday...West Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 9 Feet. Dominant Period 11 Seconds.
Tuesday Night...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet.
Wednesday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet.
Wednesday Night And Thursday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.
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AMZ400: Synopsis for Altamaha Sound GA to Flagler Beach FL out to 60 nm
927 PM EST Sat Nov 16 2019

Strengthening low pressure situated over the Gulf Stream waters adjacent to southeast Georgia will move slowly northeastward off the Carolina coast through Sunday night. Frequent Gale Force wind gusts will continue tonight over the offshore waters, with winds and seas slowly subsiding beginning on Sunday afternoon. A series of weak and dry frontal passages will occur on Monday and Tuesday as offshore winds prevail and seas continue to gradually subside. High pressure will then build directly over our region by midweek, with the next cold front slated to approach our region by late Friday or Friday night.

Gulf Stream
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream as of Nov 16, 2019 at 1200 UTC...
- 43 nautical miles east northeast of Flagler Beach.
- 41 nautical miles east of Saint Augustine Beach.
- 48 nautical miles east southeast of Jacksonville Beach. 79 nautical miles east southeast of St Simons Island.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1007pm EST Sat Nov 16 2019

...CLOUDY, COLD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... Late evening surface analysis depicts strengthening low pressure (998 millibars) centered over the Gulf Stream waters adjacent to southeast Georgia. Strong high pressure (1038 millibars) was situated over New England, with weaker high pressure blanketing the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys. Aloft...deep northwesterly flow prevails locally, as we remain just west of a stacked cyclone. GOES-16 Nighttime Fog/Infrared imagery indicates that a few breaks in the otherwise thick stratus cloud cover across our area were occurring over inland portions of southeast Georgia and the far western Suwannee Valley. Occasional patches of drizzle were moving southward along the Atlantic coastal counties, but shower activity associated with the stacked cyclone remains northeast of our region. Temperatures and dewpoints were mostly in the 45-50 degree range as of 03Z.

Latest short-term, high resolution guidance indicates that additional breaks in the stratus will rotate southward overnight across inland locations, followed by a resurgence of thicker cloud cover overspreading our area from northeast to southwest during the early morning hours. Patches of drizzle may continue through the predawn hours at coastal locations, where breezy northerly winds will prevail overnight and Sunday morning. Lows will fall to the low to mid 40s inland and the mid to upper 40s at the coast. Stratus may hold strong through the mid to late morning hours and then should dissipate rather quickly during the early to mid afternoon hours on Sunday. Highs should rebound to the upper 50s and lower 60s at most locations, with a few mid 60s possible in north central Florida.

Marine
Strengthening low pressure situated over the Gulf Stream waters adjacent to southeast Georgia will move slowly northeastward off the Carolina coast through Sunday night. A Gale Warning continues overnight for the offshore waters, with Small Craft Advisories for the near shore waters. Seas overnight will peak in the 12-17 foot range offshore and 7-10 feet near shore. Frequent Gale Force wind gusts will continue tonight over the offshore waters, with winds and seas slowly subsiding beginning on Sunday afternoon. A series of weak and dry frontal passages will occur on Monday and Tuesday as offshore winds prevail and seas continue to gradually subside. High pressure will then build directly over our region by midweek, with the next cold front slated to approach our region by late Friday or Friday night.

.COASTAL FLOODING/SURF/RIP CURRENTS/BEACH EROSION... Latest guidance continues to indicate the potential for moderate flooding along the northeast Florida Atlantic coast during the late morning and early afternoon high tide on Sunday. Extratropical surge guidance indicates that water levels will peak around 2.5 feet above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW), which is essentially the height above ground level for low lying areas. A Coastal Flood Warning has been issued for Sunday along the northeast Florida coast, where rough surf will combine with these elevated water levels to likely result in at least minor beach erosion during the high tide around noon tomorrow. Confidence remains lower for significant flood potential along the southeast Georgia coast, where water levels will likely be in the 1.5-2.0 foot range above MHHW. A Coastal Flood Watch continues for these locations. Similar water levels are expected along the Intracoastal Waterway and within the St. Johns River Basin during times of high tide, where a Coastal Flood Advisory remains posted. A high risk of rip currents will continue on Sunday, and breakers will likely peak right around 6 feet from St. Augustine southward on Sunday morning.


.NEAR TERM [Through Sunday]... Low pressure off the southeast CONUS continues to strengthen tonight through Sunday as it moves slowly east-northeast. The tight pressure gradient over the region begins to relax tonight over inland locations as the low departs. Breezy NNW winds persist along the SE GA and NE FL coasts into tomorrow. Cloudy skies linger into tomorrow with some improvement through the day. Temperatures remain below average with lows tonight in the 40s and highs tomorrow in the 60s.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Night Through Tuesday Night]... Cool temperatures continue with multiple weak dry frontal passages. On Sunday night into Monday, a shortwave trough with a weak surface cold front move across the region. This will bring only an increase of cloud cover and maybe brief sprinkles due to the lack of deep layer moisture and forcing with this system. The next frontal passage comes through Monday night into Tuesday as an upper trough digs southward into the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure quickly builds in after the frontal passage. High temperatures will generally be in the 60s with lows in the 40s.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Saturday]... The pattern shifts mid-week as high pressure builds in over the region and temperatures begin to warm back to average. As the high moves eastward over the Atlantic, the flow shifts to southwesterly advecting warmer temperatures into the area on Friday. Temperatures could reach slightly above average with highs ranging in the low to upper 70s. The deterministic models differ on handling the late week frontal passage. Kept low chance Probability of Precipitation in for Saturday.

NOAA Jacksonville FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...Coastal Flood Warning from 7am to 7pm EST Sunday for Coastal Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for Coastal Duval- Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 7am EST Sunday for Coastal Duval- Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 7pm EST Sunday for Clay-Inland Duval-Inland Flagler-Inland Nassau-Inland St. Johns-Putnam.

GA...Coastal Flood Watch from 7am EST Sunday through Sunday evening for Coastal Camden-Coastal Glynn.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4am Sunday to 9pm EST Monday for Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

Gale Warning until 4am EST Sunday for Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 4am Sunday to 10am EST Monday for Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 10am EST Monday for Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 10pm EST Sunday for Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM.