Marine Weather Net

Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL Marine Forecast


REST OF TONIGHT

W
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TUESDAY

TUESDAY NIGHT

W
WINDS
15
KNOTS

WEDNESDAY

NNW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ450 Forecast Issued: 825 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2019

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
Rest Of Tonight...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet. Dominant Period 12 Seconds. Inland Waters A Light Chop.
Tuesday...West Winds Increasing To Near 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. Dominant Period 11 Seconds. Inland Waters Becoming A Moderate Chop.
Tuesday Night...West Winds 15 Knots, Becoming Northwest After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. Dominant Period 10 Seconds. Inland Waters Becoming A Moderate Chop.
Wednesday...North Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Dominant Period 10 Seconds. Inland Waters A Light Chop.
Wednesday Night And Thursday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Period 10 Seconds. Inland Waters Mostly Smooth.
Thursday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming South After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.
Friday And Friday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.
Saturday...South Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Chance Of Showers During The Afternoon.
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AMZ400: Synopsis for Altamaha Sound GA to Flagler Beach FL out to 60 nm
825 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2019

A weak and dry cold front will cross our waters early on Tuesday morning. West-northwesterly winds will strengthen slightly in the wake of this front on Tuesday afternoon and evening. High pressure will then build directly over our region on Wednesday, with winds and seas diminishing. Light onshore winds that develop on Wednesday night and Thursday will shift to southwesterly on Friday and Friday night ahead of the next frontal system, which will impact our region on Saturday afternoon and evening, accompanied by showers.

Gulf Stream
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream as of Nov 16, 2019 at 1200 UTC...
- 43 nautical miles east northeast of Flagler Beach.
- 41 nautical miles east of Saint Augustine Beach.
- 48 nautical miles east southeast of Jacksonville Beach. 79 nautical miles east southeast of St Simons Island.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
644pm EST Monday Nov 18 2019

.NEAR TERM [Through Tuesday]... Clear skies this afternoon will continue overnight. Surface high pressure to our north will quickly move east as weak cold front swings through the area overnight. A few high cirrus clouds may accompany the frontal passage. Light westerly winds of 5-10 mph will subside this evening after sunset. Some patchy light fog is possible in NE FL areas ahead of the cold front before dawn where moisture levels will be highest, but current guidance is too low to include in the forecast at this time. Overnight temperatures will be in the 40s in SE GA and NE FL with readings near 50 along the NE FL coast.

On Tuesday, the upper trough will move off the east coast as surface high pressure at the surface builds in from the west along the NE Gulf coast bringing a dry NW flow across the area. Sunny skies are expected with light westerly winds around 5-10 mph. High temperatures will range from the mid 60s in SE GA to near 70 in NE FL.

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Night Through Wednesday Night]... A mid level ridge will develop over the Tennessee and Ohio river valleys Tuesday evening into Wednesday as the shortwave trough stretching from New England southward along the mid atlantic coast moves east, exiting into the north atlantic waters. High pressure will build over the area Tuesday night and will be situated directly over the area Wednesday through Wednesday night. Lows on Wednesday and Thursday morning will be in the 40s for SE GA and NE FL with highs topping out in the mid to upper 60s with pockets of low 70s for north central Florida locations.

Long Term - Thursday Through Monday
Surface high pressure will be over the area on Thursday before slowly shifting NE away from the area. A longwave trough will begin to dip down into the upper plains and the midwest Thursday and then the Ohio river valley SW towards the northern gulf coast by Friday as the mid level ridge moves away from the east coast of the US. This will pattern will bring a cold front into the SE US on Friday and then over our area Saturday. The front is expected to bring a chance of rain showers over the entire area on Saturday before moving to our east Sunday, ending rain chances from west to east. However, the timing of the front moving out of the area in still in question as the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) guidance solution is slower than the GFS solution, the latter of which allows the front to completely move out by early Sunday morning, bringing a drier airmass in its wake. Surface high pressure will be over the area on Monday with dry conditions expected. Temperatures will trend warmer to begin the period with readings just above climatology. After the cold front passage on Sunday, temperatures with be near to just below normal climatological values across the area.

Marine
After a weak cold front moves through the local waters tonight, high pressure builds eastward into the region from the Gulf of Mexico through midweek. Winds shift to the south Friday as the high builds offshore and the next storm system approaches from the west into the weekend. A small craft advisory remains in effect for the offshore Georgia waters and the nearshore FL waters until 7PM this evening while remaining in effect for the FL offshore waters until 7PM Tuesday due to elevated seas as winds have subsided offshore earlier today.

Surface high pressure will build over the local waters from the west Tuesday night and remain over the area Wednesday through Wednesday evening with light NW flow and winds 10-15 knots. Winds will veer NNE to NE Thursday with weak wind magnitudes as the surface high over the area waters slowly shifts to the ENE of the region. Friday, winds will veer southerly as the surface high pressure moves farther ENE away from the area. Saturday, southerly flow increases in magnitude as a cold front approaches from the NW.

The Coastal Flood Advisory will continue along the NE FL coast from the mouth of the St Johns river southward including the St Johns river basin. Water levels at many sites continue to peak in minor flood stage along the NE FL intercoastal waterways south of Mayport during high tide while trapped tides in the St Johns river basin are keeping elevated tide levels ongoing from the previous high tide cycle. Expect the trapped tides to continue to elevate water levels through Tuesday evening.

Rip Currents
High risk of rip currents remains in effect through this evening along the NE FL coast with a moderate risk over the SE GA coast.

NOAA Jacksonville FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7pm EST this evening for Coastal Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 7pm EST Tuesday for Clay-Coastal Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal St. Johns-Inland Duval-Inland Flagler-Inland St. Johns-Putnam.

GA...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11pm EST Tuesday for Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EST this evening for Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.