Hawk Channel from Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal out to the reef Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...Southwest To West Winds Near 5 Knots, Becoming Northwest To North Near 25 Knots. Seas Around 1 Foot, Building To 2 To 3 Feet, Except Building To 3 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet West Of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore Waters Smooth, Becoming Extremely Rough. Scattered Showers. |
| Tonight...North Winds Near 25 Knots, Decreasing To 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet, Except 5 To 7 Feet, Occasionally To 9 Feet West Of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore Waters Extremely Rough, Becoming Very Rough. Isolated Showers. |
| Monday...North Winds 20 To 25 Knots, Becoming North To Northeast 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet, Except 5 To 7 Feet, Occasionally To 9 Feet West Of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore Waters Very Rough, Becoming Choppy. |
| Monday Night...North To Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Increasing To 20 To 25 Knots After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Feet, Except 4 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet West Of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore Waters Choppy, Becoming Very Rough. |
| Tuesday...North To Northeast Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet, Except 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet West Of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore Waters Very Rough. |
| Tuesday Night...Northeast Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet, Except 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet West Of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore Waters Very Rough. |
| Wednesday...Northeast To East Winds 20 To 25 Knots, Decreasing To Near 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet, Except 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet West Of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore Waters Very Rough, Becoming Rough. Isolated Showers. |
| Wednesday Night...Northeast To East Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Decreasing To Near 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet, Subsiding To 2 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. Nearshore Waters Choppy, Becoming A Moderate Chop. Isolated Showers. |
| Thursday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light To Moderate Chop. Scattered Showers. |
| Thursday Night...North To Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet, Except 2 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet West Of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore Waters Choppy. Scattered Showers. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1029am EST Sunday Jan 18 2026 Issued at 1028am EST Sunday Jan 18 2026 Anyone in the Florida Keys will be experiencing a pre frontal environment this morning. Winds across the island chain are chaotic with variable breezes at multiple buoys along the reef. South of the Keys, showers, occasional thunderstorms, and a rare miniature supercell were observed on KBYX radar. Meanwhile, the dewpoints along the Keys are within one to two degrees of the temperature. Relative humidities exceed 90 to 95 percent in some locations. The morning KKEY sounding sampled a PWAT (Precipitable Water) above the 90th percentile for the day. Winds were veering in the lowest levels with a surprising amount of rotation in the lower atmosphere, near 100 effective helicity. Late this afternoon, the environment will dramatically change as a sharp cold front moves across the CWA. GOES East satellite imagery places the cold front just offshore of Tampa as of 900 AM. Recent models runs show the cold front entering Florida Keys waters sometime between 12 and 4 PM. A line of showers is possible while the front moves across the Keys. The wind speed increase will be a little delayed following cold frontal passage. Cloud heigheights will drop quickly, so brace for a low lying layer of stratus over the region. There is a bit of relief for Keys residents, because temperatures do not look like they will drop as much compared to last Thursday. This does not mean winds will be lighter, because windy conditions are expected tonight. Take your things indoors, because winds are about to start howling. .PREVIOUS Issued at 444am EST Sunday Jan 18 2026 CIMSS products continues to show a deep mean layer upper level trough across the eastern United States. This trough is beginning to push to the east as the high over the Atlantic gets squeezed and the ridge out west starts to slide east pinching the trough. Mean layer ridging remains in place across the western United States as the meridional flow across North America remains in place. At the surface, the Keys remain in a weak col region, which is an area of generally weak flow between the more significant weather systems. This is promoting mainly light and variable breezes at marine observation platforms throughout the Florida Keys. Plenty of moisture remains in place as can be seen on GOES 19 Total Precipitable Water (TPW) products with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) estimated to be between 1.4 inches across northern areas of the Keys to 1.8 inches across the Straits. KBYX radar has been showing isolated to scattered showers moving northwest to north as a result this morning. Some of these showers have moved across the Island Chain, especially the Middle Keys. MRMS data over the last 3 hours has shown estimated rainfall amounts of up to a quarter of an inch with the heaviest rainfall over the Straits and just north of Vaca Key. GOES 19 Nighttime Microphysics shows decent cloud cover across the area leading to mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures along the Island Chain range from the mid 60s to the lower 70s with the coolest temperatures on Big Pine Key where the RAWS station is currently reporting 64 degrees. Dew points also range from the lower 60s on Big Pine to the lower 70s across the Upper Keys. .FORECAST... The Keys remain in a weak col region for this morning. This will lead to continued light and variable breezes for the next few hours before becoming west to northwest and rapidly freshening heading into the afternoon hours. Moisture remains plentiful across the Keys early this morning with isolated to scattered showers anticipated throughout the day. Latest guidance shows decent instability, moisture, along with a lifting mechanism being the cold front approaching the Keys today. Therefore, isolated thunder was added to Straits of Florida for today. Rain chances are 50% for the Middle and Upper Keys and 40% for the Lower Keys. The aforementioned cold front in the discussion section above will continue moving towards the Keys today. The front is expected to pass through sometime during the afternoon hours. This will result in sharply freshening breezes out of the north. Frequent gusts of 25 to 30 knots or 30 to 35 mph are anticipated. In the wake of the front, windy conditions will continue along with a return to much cooler, drier, and less humid conditions. Overnight lows are expected to be 50 to 55 degrees in the Middle and Upper Keys with upper 50s for the Lower Keys. Monday will remain rather cool with daytime high struggling to get out of the mid to upper 60s. As Florida ever so subtly warms up Monday, this will act to weaken the breezes slightly Monday afternoon before picking back up again Monday evening. Therefore, don't be surprised if Monday afternoon isn't as windy as the morning hours. An expansive high pressure system will then move across the eastern United States. This will keep the breezes elevated for much of the week with breezy to windy conditions all but certain for Monday night through at least Wednesday night. Moisture will remain scarce with most of the shower activity, if any, remaining across the Straits, at least initially. Once we approach mid week, the moisture is expected to creep northward bringing slight chances back into the forecast along the Island Chain. Latest guidance is suggesting this moisture becoming even deeper than originally though leading to chances now in the forecast for mid to late week. Temperatures and dew points will also slowly moderate through the week. Expect temperatures to be back to slightly above normal to above normal by late in the week. Latest numerical and statistical guidance is hinting at another front late week into next weekend. Latest indications though are for this one to stall across the Keys leading to perhaps just a wind shift change with barely any change in dew points. Stay tuned! Marine Issued at 444am EST Sunday Jan 18 2026 A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all nearshore and offshore waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, a cold front is currently draped across Georgia/Florida Panhandle extending southwestward through the Gulf and into the Bay of Campeche. This front is forecast to push through the Florida Keys coastal waters later this afternoon. Breezes will sharply increase behind the passage of the cold front late today becoming fresh to strong, potentially near gale across the SE Gulf and westernmost Straits. In the wake of the front, an expansive high pressure system will then move across the eastern United States. This will continue to promote fresh to strong breezes through the week. Climate On this day in Keys Weather History, in 1987, the daily record warm low temperature of 75F was recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872. NOAA Key West FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5am EST Monday for GMZ033-034-055- 075. |
Key West FL Radar
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