Hawk Channel from Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal out to the reef Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Northeast To East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light To Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Wednesday...Northeast To East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light To Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Wednesday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light To Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Thursday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light To Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Thursday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light To Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Friday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Nearshore Waters Smooth To A Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Friday Night...Northeast To East Winds Near 5 Knots. Seas Around 1 Foot. Nearshore Waters Smooth. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Saturday...Northeast To East Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet, Building To Around 2 Feet. Nearshore Waters Smooth To A Light Chop, Becoming A Light To Moderate Chop. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Saturday Night...Northeast To East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters Choppy. A Chance Of Thunderstorms. Showers. |
| Sunday...Northeast To East Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. Nearshore Waters Very Rough. A Chance Of Thunderstorms. Showers. |
| Sunday Night...Northeast To East Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Nearshore Waters Very Rough. Showers With A Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 211pm EDT Tuesday Oct 13 2026 Issued at 154pm EDT Tuesday Oct 13 2026 Dewpoints along the island chain are ranging from 72-74 degrees this afternoon. This is a few degrees lower than they have been as of recent days and provides at least some evidence that the moisture front is trying to push south of the Keys. This is evident by sub 1" PWATs (Precipitable Waters) on MIMIC-TPW imagery across much of the central and eastern Gulf as well as the Florida Peninsula on MIMIC-TPW imagery, while PWATs (Precipitable Waters) are closer to 2" in a column extending across the Bahamas and through the Florida Straits. The 12Z KKEY RAOB (Radiosonde Observation or Upper-Air Observation) did measure PWATs (Precipitable Waters) of 2.2" but also sampled the proliferation of dry mid-level air above 500mb that is occurring as a result of 594dam ridging centered along the Texas coast and northwestern Gulf. Highest rain chances will be focused across the Straits of Florida through tonight. By tomorrow, the ridge will begin to shift eastward towards the Atlantic. This will promote southeasterly low/mid-level flow which will allow moisture to surge back to the north across the Keys, supporting chances for passing showers and storms through the end of the week. Meanwhile, nearby tidal stations continue to report high tide peaks near or right at Coastal Flood Statement criteria. Projections are slightly decreasing for the next few tidal cycles, but for now the Coastal Flood Statement will remain in effect along the Keys through tonight for minor saltwater ponding of low-lying areas during high tide. The next system of interest is still forecast to develop on Friday as an upper-level trough dives southeastward from Canada and merges with a cutoff low near the Upper Midwest. A strong cold front will surge south and push through the Gulf coast region Friday night into Saturday. Recent model consensus diverges on the southern extent of the front over the weekend as the mid to upper-level trough pulls away towards the North Atlantic. This also depends on where and how fast the subtropical ridge becomes reestablished in the Atlantic in the wake of the departing trough. Regardless of whether the cold front stalls across Central Florida or has enough forcing to make it through the Florida Keys, we expect windy conditions to begin developing across the Florida Keys and surrounding waters as early as Saturday night in addition to a multi-day period of active weather featuring medium to high rain chances. In the coming days as forecast confidence improves, we will have further details to provide regarding potential marine weather impacts. Marine Issued at 154pm EDT Tuesday Oct 13 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. Surrounding marine observations are currently reporting gentle to moderate northeast breezes. From synopsis, high pressure is centered over the Southeast U.S. and the northern Gulf. An Atlantic ridge continues to weaken and retreat east towards the central Atlantic. In between these two features lies a weak cold front which has generally stalled along and parallel or just south of the Florida Keys. This will promote gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes over the next several days. There will be chances for showers and a few thunderstorms over the next few days as this weak and diffuse front remains in the area. Late in the week, a strong cold front could develop and move towards the Florida Keys by the weekend. Currently, there are low chances that the front will make it to the Florida Keys waters. We will continue monitoring this system. NOAA Key West FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...None. GM...None. |
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