Hawk Channel from Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal out to the reef Marine Forecast
|Tonight...East Winds Near 15 Knots, Decreasing To 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet, Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Moderate Chop, Becoming A Light To Moderate Chop. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Sunday...East Winds Near 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light Chop. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Sunday Night...East To Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 1 Foot. Nearshore Waters Smooth To A Light Chop. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.|
|Monday...East Winds Near 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light Chop. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Monday Night And Tuesday...East Winds Near 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Moderate Chop. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.|
|Tuesday Night...East Winds Near 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Moderate Chop. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday...East Winds Near 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Moderate Chop. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday And Thursday Night...East To Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light To Moderate Chop. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Key West FL
407am EDT Sunday May 31 2020
Under partly cloudy skies and east winds near 10 mph, temperatures are hovering around 80 degrees along the island chain. Meanwhile, local radars are only detecting a few showers in our entire region. On our marine district, winds are mainly east near 10 knots, except slightly higher on the Straits of Florida.
Short Term - Today Through Tuesday Night
A low and mid level (below 700 mb) ridge axis accompanied by a significant dry layer will hold firm across our area for the next couple of days. So despite a light backing wind profile expected later today, dry air entrainment should pose a significant challenge for updrafts within a potential cloud line. Given dry air, only isolated 10 to 20 percent rain chances will be inserted for today through Monday. Thereafter, an extensive region of high pressure over the Eastern United States will expand and migrate southward, while a lengthy area of low pressure located over Central America slowly moves little. With this, moisture will slowly be on the rise within a freshening east to southeast trajectory which will likely enhance both moisture flux and low level confluence. With that, rain chances will gradually increase from 30 to 40 percent Monday night through Tuesday night.
Long Term - Wednesday through Saturday
Above normal uncertainty for this forecast period, as medium range guidance reveals a large mid and upper level cyclonic circulation extending from the Bay of Campeche to across the Yucatan Peninsula, and into the extreme western Caribbean Sea lifting northward into the Gulf of Mexico. Within this massive trough, an abundance of moisture and strands of mid and upper level potential vorticity are drawn northward. For our area, the latest guidance indicates the far eastern portion of the upward vertical motion field reaches our region toward the latter part of next week. However, guidance inconsistency and the potential of a moderate to fresh southerly flow resulting in drier air to stream northward into our area during the daytime hours, (Cuban shadow) leads to timing issues. Regardless, it does appear the best chance for rainfall along the island chain will be during the nighttime hours. For now, will maintain 40 percent 12 hour rain chances, which is still above normal but below guidance.
Mainly light to gentle breezes can be expected through tonight, before winds gradually increase by Monday night. Thereafter, there is uncertainty on whether fresh to strong winds will affect our marine district Tuesday night through at least Thursday night. Regardless, some type of headline, Exercise Caution/Advisory will likely be required for at least a portion of our coastal waters. Stay tuned to later marine forecasts as confidence increases.
In 1934, the daily record low temperature of 70 degrees was last recorded in Key West. Temperature records date back to 1872.
NOAA Key West FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories