Lake Okeechobee Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Lake Waters A Moderate Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Through The Day.|
|Tonight...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Gusts Up To 20 Knots Late In The Evening. Lake Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms Late In The Evening.|
|Monday...South Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Monday Night...South Winds 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop.|
|Tuesday...East Southeast Winds 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Tuesday Night...South Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers Late In The Evening.|
|Wednesday...Southeast Winds 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday Night...East Winds 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Late In The Evening, Then Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Thursday...East Northeast Winds 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop. Showers Likely And Chance Of Thunderstorms Through The Day.|
| AMZ600: Synopsis for Jupiter Inlet to Ocean Reef FL out to 60 nm and for East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach FL out to 60 nm|
1002 AM EDT Sun May 9 2021
High pressure centered over the western Atlantic waters will continue to support moderate easterly to southeasterly winds across the South Florida waters through the forecast dominant period. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast each day, especially across the Atlantic waters where locally gusty winds and higher seas will be possible.
Gulf Stream Hazards: A few thunderstorms with lightning and locally higher winds and seas.
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream as of May 08, 2021 at 1200 UTC...
- 13 nautical miles east of Fowey Rocks.
- 18 nautical miles east of Port Everglades.
- 11 nautical miles east northeast of Lake Worth.
- 11 nautical miles northeast of Jupiter Inlet.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Miami FL
949am EDT Sunday May 9 2021
Made a few changes to the forecast this morning to account for increased coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms across eastern Miami-Dade County and the adjacent coastal waters. PoPs and thunder chances were increased for these areas as a result.
Otherwise the forecast is on track with the better shower/storm chances progressing inland by this afternoon and early evening. A few stronger storms are possible today should any taller cores evolve. If so gusty winds are a possibility given dry air aloft, theta-E differentials around 25K, and sufficient downdraft CAPE (exceeding 900 J/kg on this morning's MFL sounding). As always, locally heavy rainfall is expected in association with thunderstorms today.
Prevailing VFR at the terminals with the best shower/storm chances today across inland portions of the area. Left inherited VCSH mention at the eastern terminals to cover any isolated convection which may occur. Breezy east to southeast winds through the TAF cycle with afternoon gusts to around 20 kt. The Gulf breeze should turn winds more southerly at KAPF around 16-17z.
Short Term - Today Through Monday
A few very small and isolated showers reside across the southern Atlantic waters this morning. Outside of that, dry conditions continue across Mainland South Florida. Looking aloft, the H5 flow remains a rather dry northwesterly early this morning. Models show this becoming a more zonal or progressive flow through the short term period. This will allow for surface temperatures to increase as heigheights gradually rise a bit. Additionally, with the mid- levels slightly moistening, or at least not being quite as dry, showers and T'storms will gradually increase a bit, especially along sea/gulf breeze across the interior during the afternoon. In fact, it appears the short term is an exact preview of what's to come over the next several months in relation to a wet season regime (inland showers/storms, easterly or southeasterly flow, warm, and becoming humid). And similar to summer, can't rule out a strong wind gust or two in the strongest convection with favorable DCAPE values residing over the interior and even an inverted V type forecast sounding also signaling a conditional wind threat. Speaking of wind, nonconvective winds today will be breezy along the immediate Atlantic coast with some gusts nearing 25mph at times during peak heating hours.
Long Term - Monday night through Saturday
With the departure of the upper level trough and colder values aloft, an expansive ridge of high pressure at 500mb will propagate eastward across the Gulf of Mexico by Monday evening. At the surface, the Bermuda High will continue to remain the dominant force in the boundary layer, allowing for the continued advection of moist tropical air into Mainland South Florida. Diurnal sea- breeze circulations on both the Atlantic and Gulf coasts will be possible each afternoon as cooler moderated air is pulled inland by low pressure at the mesoscale level, developed by ample surface heating. Given the continued advection of moisture into South Florida via onshore flow as well as the convergence boundaries of both seabreezes, it appears that a wet period is in store for South Florida next week. Outflow boundary interactions may also provide for messy storm evolution, characteristic of wet season diurnally driven convection.
By mid-week, a weak frontal boundary at the surface begins to move southwards across the Southeastern United States. Southerly flow out ahead of this boundary will allow for increasing PWAT's (Precipitable Waters) over our area beginning on Wednesday. By Thursday, the phasing of the subtropical and polar jetstream will occur over the Southeastern United States and allow for cyclogenesis at the surface just offshore of the east coast of northern Florida. The development of low pressure at the surface as well as the synoptic forcing of a 500mb trough will allow for the weak cold front to move southward into our area by late week. At this point, there continues to be substainal uncertainty between the GFS and the European models. The GFS has trended with a wetter progression of the boundary with high PWAT's (Precipitable Waters) and ample convection associated with the boundary. The Euro on the other hand, shows a drier passage of the front with less convection occurring out ahead of the boundary progression. Further trends in both models should be monitored as we move into the new week.
VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle. Can't rule out some convection later this afternoon, especially across the interior. Used VCs to cover any isolated convection. Otherwise, easterly flow will continue and may become gusty at times with a few gusts nearing 20 knots during the afternoon for terminals closest to the coast. Winds should subside around sunset this evening.
Winds should remain east or even southeasterly through midweek. The overall pattern favors a more summerlike regime with nocturnal showers developing overnight; however, this activity should remain somewhat isolated in coverage. Winds and seas look marginally favorable today. The only concerns would be for a few elevated wind gusts within the 15 to 20 knot range with slightly elevated seas over the Atlantic.
BEACHES... With a solid easterly flow regime setting up along the Atlantic coast, a high risk of rip currents can be expected today. Rip currents will decrease through the early part of the workweek as low level flow generally weakens.
NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8pm EDT this evening for FLZ168-172- 173.