Lake Okeechobee Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Lake Waters Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers Late In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Tonight...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Lake Waters Light Chop. |
| Sun...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Lake Waters Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning. A Chance Of Tstms. Showers Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Sun Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Lake Waters Light Chop. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Mon...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Lake Waters Light Chop. Showers Likely. A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Mon Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Lake Waters Light Chop. A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Tue...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Lake Waters Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Tue Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Lake Waters A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Wed...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming E 15 To 20 Kt Late. Lake Waters Choppy. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning. Showers Likely In The Afternoon. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 907am EDT Sat Oct 5 2024 ...New Issued at 835am EDT Sat Oct 5 2024 Coastal convergence has brought 2 bouts of localized flooding around Hollywood/FLL area, for which Flood Advisories are in effect through 9am. Additional convergence over the immediate Atlantic waters is decreasing, while the area of rain is now diminishing in size and drifting southward slowly. Thus, the advisories will be allowed to expire. Additional rain is expected today as moisture across the area remains abundant, gradually consolidating towards the area of low pressure over the western GOMEX. POPs will be adjusted in this morning update to better reflect current trends. .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 233am EDT Sat Oct 5 2024 The mid-level ridge will hang around for one more day on Saturday as easterly flow continues south of high pressure centered in the northeast US and northeast of the budding tropical disturbance in the SW Gulf of Mexico. The deepest moisture pockets look to shift towards the disturbance area on Saturday and into the Gulf, which may lead to less rain than otherwise would be expected with a strong shortwave trough advecting towards the area. Nevertheless, scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are still expected on Saturday with the highest chances in SW Florida due to an easterly low level flow and being where the deepest moisture is. On Sunday, the shortwave trough progressing through the SE states will erode the mid-level ridge, opening the door for a more active weather period. A stronger moisture resurgence is expected as flow strengthens around the disturbance in the SW Gulf of Mexico. Impulses of positive vorticity advection will advect into the area as part of a circulation in association with a larger gyre, and this will provide energy for increasing showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) could exceed 2.5 inches on Sunday, providing plentiful deep moisture for the impulses to work with. Therefore, periods of rain and widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely on Sunday. Repeated rounds of heavy rainfall could pose a flooding risk beginning on Sunday. Long Term (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 233am EDT Sat Oct 5 2024 Overview: The weather pattern looks to be increasingly wet next week and there remains potential for tropical enhancement in the SW Gulf of Mexico, but details regarding the disturbance's evolution and any potential impacts that may occur from that continue to be unclear. As of this morning, the National Hurricane Center gives the tropical disturbance area a 70% chance to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next seven days. Details: Many different factors come into play that will influence and determine how the tropical disturbance evolves. Firstly, a surface low is expected to strengthen Sunday night into Monday morning in the SW Gulf near the intersection of the Bay of Campeche and the western Yucatan Peninsula. This area of focus that includes the surface low will be part of a larger cyclonic gyre, with some guidance including the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and GFS (Global Forecast System) still holding onto a weaker northern cyclonic circulation separate from the surface low associated with the gyre. Other guidance does not highlight this secondary circulation at all. The secondary circulation could provide additional energy for strengthening if it gets absorbed into the primary southern circulation, but on the other hand if the northern circulation becomes the primary area of focus, then the system will likely weaken quicker as it gets sheared apart. Furthermore, the position of the upper-level jet will play a role in this system's evolution given that if the system becomes situated in the right entrance region, upper level divergence would be enhanced and allow the system to strengthen. Otherwise, it could get sheared apart. All in all, given all these factors the guidance suite continues to vary in results and it remains too uncertain and difficult to determine the level of any impacts to the South Florida region. The general consensus at this time is that the system will arrive in the vicinity of the Central/Southern Gulf coast of the Florida Peninsula between Tuesday-Thursday this week. Regardless of its development, hydro concerns appear imminent. Currently, expected Quantitative Precipitation Forecast averages between 4-6 inches across the region. Locally higher amounts will be possible, specifically in locations where proper dynamics become maximized, which could create flooding concerns. Conditions will continue to be monitored very closely in the near term in order to determine the best course of action as it relates to any Watches/Warnings for this system. Marine Issued at 233am EDT Sat Oct 5 2024 Generally moderate easterly winds will prevail across the area waters through Saturday around 10-15kts, with seas increasing over the Atlantic waters to around 3-4 ft for the weekend as swell moves in from the north. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible each day, and may result in locally higher winds and seas. Beaches Issued at 233am EDT Sat Oct 5 2024 There is a high risk for rip currents for the Palm Beaches today while remaining moderate for the Miami and Broward beaches as onshore flow persists. Moderate amplitude northerly swell will continue to move in for the rest of the weekend which will keep the rip current risk elevated. NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168. AM...None. GM...None. |
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