Lake Okeechobee Marine Forecast
|Today...North Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop.|
|Tonight...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop.|
|Saturday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Gusts Up To 20 Knots In The Evening. Lake Waters A Light Chop. Showers Likely In The Morning, Then Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Saturday Night...North Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 20 Knots. Lake Waters A Moderate Chop. Chance Of Showers.|
|Sunday And Sunday Night...North Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 20 Knots. Lake Waters A Moderate Chop.|
|Monday...East Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 20 Knots. Lake Waters A Moderate Chop.|
|Tuesday...East Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 20 Knots. Lake Waters A Moderate Chop.|
| AMZ600: Synopsis for Jupiter Inlet to Ocean Reef FL out to 60 nm and for East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach FL out to 60 nm|
311 AM EST Fri Mar 5 2021
High pressure remains over the region today, then an approaching disturbance this weekend may bring hazardous seas and unsettled weather. Locally hazardous marine conditions could occur in shower and thunderstorm activity.
Gulf Stream Hazards: Elevated winds and building seas through the weekend.
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream as of Mar 04, 2021 at 1200 UTC...
- 10 nautical miles east southeast of Fowey Rocks.
- 11 nautical miles east northeast of Port Everglades.
- 12 nautical miles east southeast of Lake Worth.
- 16 nautical miles east northeast of Jupiter Inlet.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Miami FL
916am EST Fri Mar 5 2021
No major forecast changes to the current forecast this morning. A sunny and dry day is expected across South Florida today. This morning's 12Z MFL sounding continues to show the presence of a dry airmass over South Florida with a precipitable water value of 0.57 inches. Minimum RH values this afternoon have decreased with the latest forecast update, with RH values in the upper 20s across the gulf coast and western interior expected later today. Thus, the HWO and the graphical HWO has been updated to reflect this change in fire weather impact.
Dry and VFR conditions should prevail throughout the period. Light NNW winds will veer throughout the period becoming ENE this afternoon. Except for KAPF with a gulf breeze developing with westerly wind around 18z. L/V winds overnight. Towards the end of the period a cold front approaches with increasing rain chances with VCSH included for the extended TAF sites as of now.
Short Term - Today Through Saturday
Models depict a progressive weather pattern for the beginning of the weekend with a mid level trough deepening over the central/eastern GOMEX, which pushes an associated surface short wave trough/frontal boundary into the Florida peninsula from Friday night through Saturday.
Timing window for the more significant impacts over SoFlo on Saturday, including widespread rain, remains focused on the late morning through the afternoon hours. Model solutions seem in better agreement in this regard, having the leading edge of the frontal boundary reaching SoFlo by the early afternoon hours. But some pre- frontal convection should bring bouts of rain as soon as the early morning hours, especially over the Lake region and Palm Beach county.
Expect scattered to numerous showers across much of SoFlo, along with some isolated thunderstorms. However, model consensus remains consistent in keeping the best mid/upper level dynamic support well north of the area. Also, cloud coverage may combine with an unimpressive moisture profile to keep significant convective activity rather limited. Therefore, main hazard should be potential for localized flooding under heavy downpours, but certainly a few strong storms are still possible. As mentioned earlier, highest POPs remain over the Lake Region and Palm Beach County area where temperatures aloft will be around -15 Celsius at the height of the event, along with the steepest lapse rates. Current grids carry up to 80 percent chances of rain for those areas, and 50 to 60 percent for the rest pf SoFlo.
Models push the boundary across the peninsula fairly quickly, exiting the state by Saturday early evening, with the bulk of the showers and storms migrating into the Atlantic waters.
Temperatures warm up a bit today with afternoon highs back into the low 80s for interior and west coat areas, while the Miami metro areas hit the upper 70s. But with the aforementioned synoptic scenario, temps cool down a little again on Saturday, with afternoon highs in the low-mid 70s north and east coast areas, and upper 70s over the west coast and interior.
LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Next Week)... The previously mentioned amplified neutral to positively tilted mid/upper-level trough will be located over the eastern states, with its axis extending south-southwestward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. An accompanying straight upper-level jet steak will be rounding the base of the mean trough, allowing it to lift east- northeastward and phase with a northern stream trough prior to ejecting into the western Atlantic waters late on Sunday.
Present indications are that isolated convection will be ongoing from Saturday night into Sunday morning, supported by weak warm air advection and a low-level mass flux accompanying the thermally direct right-entrance region circulation of the aforementioned straight upper-level jet streak. The primary concern with the overnight convection will be locally heavy rainfall which could result in minor flooding of vulnerable low-lying urban areas of South Florida. This scenario could potentially be exacerbated by enhanced low-level easterlies impinging on the east coast of South Florida, fostering localized corridors of mesoscale ascent in association with frictional/coastal convergence. With that said, instability will be greatly lacking and rapid upper-level drying could mitigate these concerns.
By late Sunday into Monday, the above mentioned mid/upper-level trough will be lifting out of the area as continental high pressure builds in its wake. South Florida will remain on the southeastern periphery of this air mass through the week, allowing for the maintenance of low-level moisture and associated lingering scattered cloud coverage through the week. Present indications are that dry and stable conditions aloft will limit precipitation potential, though the low-level moisture and persistent easterly flow could result in isolated sprinkles here and there. A tight pressure gradient peripheral to the aforementioned surface high will support breezy conditions across South Florida and the local waters through the week, resulting in hazardous marine and beach conditions (see Marine and Beach sections below).
High pressure will dominate today with winds seas subsiding to below advisory levels over the northern Atlantic waters. Another cold front boundary is expected to reach the coastal waters late tonight and into Saturday, bringing increasing hazardous seas and unsettled weather. Locally hazardous marine conditions could occur in shower and thunderstorm activity. By Sunday, conditions will be subsiding in the wake of the front, but still some activity is possible over the Atlantic offshore waters.
High pressure across the area will help in keeping relatively dry conditions in place today with lowest RH values over western portion of South Florida possibly dropping into the mid to upper 30s. Lowest RH values are expected over portions of Glades, Highlands, and Collier counties. Winds should shift to a more NE or E flow later today.
Another front reaches the area during the overnight hours and into Saturday morning with an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity.
BEACHES... High Risk of Rip Currents is now in effect for Palm Beach county, while Broward beaches will experience moderate levels today. Elevated risk of rip currents is expected to continue for all Atlantic beaches during this weekend due to increased seas and winds associated with an approaching frontal system.
NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168.