Lake Okeechobee Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...East Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Lake Waters A Moderate Chop.|
|Monday...East Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Lake Waters A Moderate Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Monday Night...East Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Lake Waters A Moderate Chop.|
|Tuesday...East Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Lake Waters A Moderate Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Tuesday Night...East Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Lake Waters A Moderate Chop.|
|Wednesday...East Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Lake Waters A Moderate Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Wednesday Night...East Southeast Winds 10 To 20 Knots. Lake Waters Choppy.|
|Thursday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Lake Waters A Moderate Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Thursday Night...South Southeast Winds 5 To 15 Knots. Lake Waters A Moderate Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening.|
|Friday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Miami FL
751pm EDT Sunday May 22 2022
Quiet evening so far with no significant convection being observed on radar anywhere in the CWA. Only adjustment to Grids will be to winds as the ESE flow remains moderate along the east coast. With the latest SAL (Saharan Air Layer) event providing a drying trend in the air mass across the region, expect mainly benign weather conditions to prevail tonight and through the next 24 hours.
overnight lows will remain in the upper 60s to mid 70s interior and most of the metro areas, and into the upper 70s near the coasts.
(Issued 307pm EDT Sunday May 22 2022)
SHORT TERM... This Afternoon through Monday... A anomalously strong mid-level high pressure (heigheights at least 592dm at 500 mb) over the Straits of Florida will keep stable conditions over South Florida for the remainder of this afternoon. The SAL (Saharan Air Layer) remains in place across South Florida, as evidenced by the milky sky and this morning's soundings showing a strong low level inversion in place, as deep as 3,000 feet and dry air above the inversion up to 600 mb. A wedge of slightly drier air is expected to filter into South Florida from the east late today and tonight as the high pressure continues it's firm hold on the area's weather. Latest short-term models show very limited showers/thunderstorms over the far western portions of the area, therefore Probability of Precipitation are capped at 20- 30% and confined to Collier, Hendry, and Glades counties this afternoon. Intensity of any convection should remain below strong levels due to the increasing stability. Elsewhere, Probability of Precipitation too low to mention today, although a couple of narrow cloud lines moving onshore from the Atlantic could produce a few sprinkles of little to no consequence.
Temperatures in the lower to mid 90s this afternoon over the interior and Gulf coast will leading to heat index values near 105F. Over the east coast metro, temperatures in the mid/upper 80s at the beach to near 90 over the suburbs and heat index values around 100F.
Mainly dry conditions continue tonight with no mentionable PoPs, although one or two light showers could move onshore from the Atlantic but not worth mentioning in the forecast. The overall pattern for Monday is very similar to today's, as the mid-level high moves right overhead, the wedge of drier air moves over South Florida, and the SAL (Saharan Air Layer) hangs on for one more day. Only mention of Probability of Precipitation Monday is over the western third of the area, capping them at no higher than 20-24% during the afternoon hours.
Low temperatures tonight/Monday morning will remain warm, and leaned on the higher end of the model blend showing around 80F in the east coast metro (lower 80s at the beaches), mid 70s interior and upper 70s Gulf coast. Highs Monday afternoon might be a degree or two lower along the east coast (upper 80s), but still touching the mid 90s over portions of inland SW Florida. Humidity levels will probably be slightly lower than today, leading to heat index values on Monday in the upper 90s to around 100F rather than the 100-105F of the past two days.
LONG TERM Long Term (Tuesday through Next Week)... High pressure will continue to dominate for the first part of the extended with east to southeasterly wind flow. Pockets of drier and moist air rotate across the region along the area of high pressure. A fairly typical diurnal summer time type convection for most of the week with scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon along the seabreeze.
As we get towards the end of the week an increase in tropical moisture and a trough will be approaching the Southeast US. Therefore, increasing rain chances with a more unsettled pattern as we move into the holiday weekend. As the trough departs the region, moisture will linger with showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon next weekend.
Temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s will continue each afternoon with highest temps over the western interior given the easterly to southeasterly flow. The flow will also allow for warm nigheights with temps in the mid to upper 70s, with a few areas staying in the 80s along the east coast.
AVIATION(18Z TAFS)... VFR conditions are expected through the period outside of occasional MVFR (Marginal Visual Flight Rules) ceilings near 3,000 ft primarily through 20z. Chances of TSRA this afternoon are low and confined to the western peninsula. Did not include TSRA in the forecast for KAPF due to the low probability of occurrence. Wind 120-130 degrees at 12-14 knots with occasional gusts around 20 knots through 00z, decreasing after 02z, then picking back up after 14z Monday to similar levels as today.
Persistent surface high pressure over the western Atlantic through most of the week will lead to moderate SE winds across the local waters. Winds will be near or at Small Craft Caution headline levels for most of the week, along with choppy conditions. Showers and thunderstorms will be limited until perhaps Thursday when activity may increase from the south.
BEACHES... The rip current risk is expected to remain high at the Atlantic beaches through at least Monday and probably through most of the week as moderate SE wind persists.
NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ168-172-173.