Marine Weather Net

Southwestern Puerto Rico out 10NM Marine Forecast


REST OF TODAY

NE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TONIGHT

NE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

MONDAY

E
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

MONDAY NIGHT

E
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ745 Forecast Issued: 1023 AM AST Sun Mar 03 2024

Rest Of Today...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming East This Afternoon. Seas 1 To 3 Feet. Dominant Period 10 Seconds.
Tonight...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet. Dominant Period 10 Seconds. Isolated Showers.
Monday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet. Dominant Period 10 Seconds.
Monday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet. Dominant Period 10 Seconds.
Tuesday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet. Dominant Period 10 Seconds. Isolated Showers.
Wednesday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet Or Less. Dominant Period 10 Seconds. Isolated Showers.
Thursday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet Or Less. Dominant Period 7 Seconds. Isolated Showers.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
502am AST Sunday Mar 3 2024

Synopsis
Breezy conditions will persist today under ENE winds due to broad a broad surface high pressure. over the north central Atlantic. Patches of low-level moisture embedded in the trades will reach the islands from time to time and enhance shower development. Southeasterly winds will return by mid-week onwards, as well as warmer temperatures. A mid-to upper-level trough will pass close to the area late in the week. Hazardous seas and life-threatening rip currents will persist for the next several days.

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday... Partly cloudy skies prevailed through the overnight hours across the forecast region. Light showers moved over the northern half of Puerto Rico and the interior through the early morning hours. Doppler radar rainfall estimates are showing limited values, around 0.01–0.02 inches of rainfall. Light showers are moving fast with the breezy northeast winds. Current surface observations are showing winds around 10–12 mph with gusts up to 20 mph, especially across the northern coastal areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Overnight temperatures ranged from the mid-70s near coastal areas to the 60s over the mountains.

Broad surface high pressure, previously located over the western Atlantic, will continue to dominate and move over the north-central Atlantic today. Under this pattern, breezy northeasterly winds will prevail through early next week. On tab for today, partly cloudy skies should prevail across all the islands. Based on the latest model guidance, PWAT (Precipitable Water) values are expected to increase from below- normal to near-normal values today and oscillate between them for the next several days. Patches of moisture associated with a surface trough located over the central Atlantic Waters will be coming from the east thanks to the wind flow pattern. That cluster of cloudiness and moisture will increase the potential for shower activity development across the forecast area. affecting windward sectors during the night and mornings, and helping promote convective activity over the SW quadrant of PR during the afternoon. Given that stable conditions and drier air are holding in the mid-levels, no significant rainfall accumulations are expected. Additionally, showers should move quickly due to the breezy winds. At this time, models are showing mainly half an inch or less across the interior, SW quadrant, and USVI, and up to 1 inch or less for eastern PR. We are anticipating similar weather conditions in the short term. We will continue to closely monitor the model guidance for any updates to the forecast.

Long Term
Wednesday through Sunday... Patches of moisture associated with a lingering surface trough over the central Atlantic are expected to move close or north of the region early in the forecast cycle under northeasterly steering winds. This will promote shower activity across the windward areas of the islands. Later in the workweek into the weekend, an upper-level trough and associated surface front are expected to exit the U.S. East Coast and move over the western Atlantic. A broad surface high pressure over the north-central Atlantic will shift southwards by the end of the week, causing the winds to shift from the southeast. A warming trend is expected by midweek. Meanwhile, the frontal system will absorb the weak surface trough well north of the region.

By Thursday, the 500 MB temperatures could drop around -10 degrees Celsius as the mid-to upper-level trough passes close to the area. In addition, the moisture content will increase to around or just above normal levels(1.45-1.60 inches) through Saturday as the trade wind cap relaxes under the lighter southeasterly winds. However, the 500 mb temperatures will warm to around -4C by Saturday as a mid-level ridge builds over the central Caribbean. In general, shower activity will increase from Thursday through Saturday across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. For Sunday, northeasterly winds will return as a weak surface high pressure moves north of the area, and overall fair weather conditions should prevail as the mid-level ridge promotes drier air and stable conditions aloft.

Marine
A surface high pressure system is generating moderate to locally fresh northeasterly winds across the region. Consequently, hazardous seas will continue across all exposed waters and local passages. The combination of the wind-driven seas and pulses of a northeasterly swell will maintain hazardous seas up to 8 feet across exposed Atlantic waters and passages until at least mid-week. Small Craft Advisories are in effect, please refer to the latest Marine Weather Message (MWWSJU) for more information.

Beach Forecast

There is a high risk of rip currents across the north and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, and St. Croix. Life-threatening rip currents will continue for the next several days due to the combination of short-period waves and the arrival of a northeasterly swell. For more information please refer to the latest Coastal Hazards Message (CFWSJU) and Surf Zone Forecast (SRFSJU) for more information.

Fire Weather

Winds speeds greater than 15 mph with stronger gusts are expected at times across the southern coastal plains of PR today. The KBDI remains above critical levels in Guanica and limited shower activity should continue through the early afternoon hours across southwestern Puerto Rico. Therefore, a Fire Danger Statement (RFDSJU) is in effect for the southern coastal plains.


.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for PRZ001-002- 005-008-012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk from this evening through late Tuesday night for VIZ002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2am GMT Wednesday for AMZ711-712.

Small Craft Advisory until 2am GMT Tuesday for AMZ716-723-741.

Small Craft Advisory from 2pm this afternoon to 2am GMT Tuesday for AMZ742.