Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry Tortugas out 20 to 60 NM Marine Forecast
| Tonight...East Winds Near 15 Knots, Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet, Building To 4 To 5 Feet. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Monday...East Winds Near 15 Knots, Decreasing Briefly To 10 To 15 Knots, Then Becoming Northeast To East And Increasing To Near 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms. |
| Monday Night...Northeast To East Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Becoming East To Southeast And Decreasing To 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet, Subsiding To 3 To 4 Feet. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms. |
| Tuesday...East To Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Tuesday Night...East To Southeast Winds Near 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Wednesday...East To Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Wednesday Night...East To Southeast Winds Near 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Thursday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Thursday Night...East Winds Near 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms. |
| Friday...East To Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms. |
| Friday Night...East To Southeast Winds Near 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 316pm EDT Sunday July 3 2022 High pressure centered to the northeast of Bermuda reaches west- southwest across Florida. East to southeast winds average 8 to 11 knots at the Reef, rounding out a fairly substantial afternoon lull. Temperatures range from 89 to 94, with the highest reading registered on Big Pine. The island chain is rain-free and sunny, with the only showers out across the southeastern Gulf north of the Tortugas. .FORECAST... The low-level water vapor and TPW imagery from GOES place a broad swath of lower to mid tropospheric dry air across the Keys, the Cay Sal Bank, and east-central Cuba. A vigorous tropical wave moved through Puerto Rico Friday and Saturday, but has since deamplified. The axis of this former wave is across the Windward Passage, with extremely dry air (previously noted) ahead of the axis, and deep tropical moisture on its stern. As this undulation in the easterlies approaches on Monday, easterly winds will back to the east-northeast across the Keys. The increased confluence and winds down the island chain would normally result in increased rain/thunder chances, however, dry air will put the kabash on moist congestus. We lowered rain chances to 20% for the Independence Day holiday. However, we would not be surprised if a lee side streamer dropped several rounds of light/moderate rain over the islands west- southwest of Key West (Boca Grande). The low-level vort max should arrive Monday night, then give way to about 36 to 48-hours of deep tropical moisture. We highlight above normal rain/thunder chances (40-50%) Tuesday through Wednesday, not going any higher than the previous cycle despite suggestions of higher chances from the EC. There will be deep tropical moisture, but limited kinematics and no real forcing mechanisms. The deep moisture will end rather abrupartly Thursday or Thursday night, with near normal (20-30%) rain chances expected through the remainder of the forecast. Throughout the next five days, east to southeast breezes will continue to peak and lull, tending higher in the evening/early overnight, then lower during the afternoon. By next weekend, breezes may diminish somewhat. July and August are typically the hottest months in the Florida Keys, and we note highs in the lower 90s next weekend as the breezes diminish. Marine There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution tonight across the Straits of Florida for increasing winds. High pressure parked over the western North Atlantic will maintain moderate east to southeast breezes across the Florida Keys for the next several days. Unsettled weather featuring increased shower and thunderstorm coverage will push through the Keys Monday night through Wednesday. NOAA Key West FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...None. GM...None. |
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