Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry Tortugas out 20 to 60 NM Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Increasing To Near 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet, Building To 3 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 4 Feet At 6 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Thursday...North To Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 4 Feet At 5 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Thursday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet, Building To 4 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 4 Feet At 5 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Friday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Friday Night...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Showers Likely With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Saturday...Northeast Winds Near 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet. Showers Likely With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Saturday Night...Northeast Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 5 To 8 Feet, Occasionally To 10 Feet. Showers Likely With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Sunday...Northeast Winds Near 25 Knots. Seas 6 To 9 Feet, Occasionally To 11 Feet. Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Sunday Night...Northeast Winds 25 To 30 Knots. Seas 7 To 9 Feet, Occasionally To 11 Feet. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Monday...Northeast Winds 25 To 30 Knots, Decreasing To 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 7 To 9 Feet, Occasionally To 11 Feet, Subsiding To 6 To 8 Feet, Occasionally To 10 Feet. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Monday Night...Northeast Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 6 To 8 Feet, Occasionally To 10 Feet. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 123pm EDT Tuesday Oct 20 2026 Issued at 120pm EDT Tuesday Oct 20 2026 Surface analysis places a deepening low pressure system a few hundred miles east of the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Meanwhile in its wake, a 1032 mb high pressure system is parked in southeastern Canada. The interaction of these two synoptic features continues to produce breezy to windy conditions for the Florida Keys. The northeasterly breezes on the back side of the low pressure system is also acting to back up the Gulf Stream running along the Eastern Seaboard. Tides are elevated, particularly in the Upper Keys, where a Coastal Flood Advisory has now been issued. Local Doppler radar is only detecting a few isolated showers, mainly in the Upper Keys, with GOES-19 visible satellite imagery largely depicting mostly sunny skies across the Florida Keys and the adjacent nearshore and offshore marine zones. Cool advection around the continental high has caused temperatures to struggle a bit to recover today, with most island communities only hovering just above 80F at this early afternoon hour. As the aforementioned low slowly progresses northeastward in the west-central North Atlantic and the high weakens, the pressure gradient gripping the Florida Keys will slowly weaken over the next 48 hours. With that said, the lull in breezes will be short- lived, as a second high dives from Canada southward towards the Mid- Atlantic. At the same time, there is growing global ensemble support for a plume of moisture associated with the front extending from the low in the North Atlantic then surging northward for late Friday through much of the weekend. There is also increasing support to suggest weak cyclogenesis occurring somewhere in the vicinity of the Bahamas late in the weekend. The ultimate evolution of this potential feature will have major implications on the rain and thunder chances for this period. Regardless, an extended period of windy conditions is nearly certain for Friday through early next week. Warm sea surface temperatures across the Keys will support efficient downward turbulent mixing of higher wind speeds aloft, with near- gales possible for a period late Saturday night through Monday. If this wasn't complicated enough, persistent northeasterly strong breezes, combined with some of the highest seasonal predicted tides of the year, will support an extended period of coastal flooding concerns for the Keys, likely continuing into much of next week. Marine Issued at 120pm EDT Tuesday Oct 20 2026 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Florida Keys marine zones. Winds will begin to slacken and seas subside throughout the day on Wednesday, before breezes once again freshen for Friday through early next. Small Craft Advisories will once again likely be required for that time frame, with near-gale winds possible, especially Saturday night through Monday. Seasonal king tides combined with strong northeasterlies breezes will support an extended period of coastal flooding for late this week through early next week. Boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges, especially at around the times of high tide. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for the Upper Keys, and a Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the Middle Keys. NOAA Key West FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Wednesday for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052>055-072>075. |
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