Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry Tortugas out 20 to 60 NM Marine Forecast
| Today...East To Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: East To Southeast 3 Feet At 5 Seconds And West 2 Feet At 7 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Tonight...East To Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: East 3 Feet At 5 Seconds And West 1 Foot At 7 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Thursday...Northeast To East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast To East 3 Feet At 4 Seconds And West 1 Foot At 7 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Thursday Night...Northeast To East Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Decreasing To Near 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Friday...East Winds Near 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Friday Night...East To Southeast Winds Near 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Saturday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Variable Near 5 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Saturday Night...Northeast To East Winds Near 5 Knots, Becoming East To Southeast 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 1 Foot. |
| Sunday...Southeast To South Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming West To Northwest. Seas Around 1 Foot. |
| Sunday Night...West To Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Southwest To West. Seas Around 1 Foot. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 404am EDT Wednesday July 22 2026 Issued at 331am EDT Wednesday July 22 2026 A relatively benign overnight for the Florida Keys. Some moisture rounding the base of a ridge out across the Atlantic is pivoting through our far eastern areas this morning. This has allowed for some isolated showers to develop and occasionally pass over the Upper Keys. Most of these showers have been shallow with tops around 15 thousand feet, which has placed them below below the -20 degree celsius, which we look for as an indicator for lightning initiation. In face, surprisingly most of these showers are even below the freezing level. Otherwise, as the aforementioned ridge continues to nose back in to the west, this is maintaining an east to southeast across the area. Elsewhere, the National Hurricane Center continues to issue advisories on Tropical Storm Bertha. At 2 am, TS Bertha was located about 75 miles east of the Mississippi River Delta and continues a westward movement. Bertha does not pose a risk for the Florida Keys. As the ridge continues to move westward from the Atlantic, we will continue to be suppressed in the sense of vertical upward motion and rain chances will continue to be limited today through Thursday. Thereafter, moisture in association with an easterly wave will slowly filter into the region starting Thursday evening. Models disagree on which side will be the wettest and thereby the best chances for wetting rains. For now have trended Probability of Precipitation up for both Thursday night and Friday to account for this discrepancies until models get into better alignment. Beyond the end of the week, the forecast remains rather chaotic with models at odds with each other. Once this easterly wave passes through it will become a matter of whether troughing truly builds as equatorward as some models think. The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) has a trough that parks itself across the eastern U.S. including Florida and the Florida Keys for days. This would result in southwest to west winds and even brief periods of west to northwest winds. On the other hand, the GFS (Global Forecast System) has the trough held up further north across Central and Panhandle Florida, which would result in our winds returning east to southeast. A nearly polar opposite result. Unfortunately, given such outcomes, have tried a middle of the road approach for now with the understanding that this will likely change as we get closer to next week. Marine Issued at 331am EDT Wednesday July 22 2026 A ridge across the Atlantic is nosing westward across the Florida Keys coastal waters this morning. In addition, moisture along the periphery of said ridge is pivoting across the far eastern waters. This has resulted in isolated showers that are passing through the Straits of Florida, northwest across the Hawk Channel waters, and in to the Florida Bay. Moisture will on occasion pivot through resulting in periodic showers and isolated thunderstorms. Otherwise, winds will remain east to southeast over the coming days. As an easterly wave moves in from the Atlantic, expect an increase in rain and thunder chances. Winds will briefly go northeast to east Thursday night into Friday as the feature moves through. Thereafter, low confidence in wind direction and speeds due to large spread in model solutions behind the easterly wave. NOAA Key West FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...None. GM...None. |
Key West FL Radar
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