Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
8:05AM EDT (1205 UTC) Saturday Apr 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough passes through the border of The Gambia and Senegal near 13.5N16W to 06N19W. The ITCZ extends from 06N19W to the Equator at 27W to near the coast of Brazil at 02.5N40W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted S of 05N between 16W and 48W.

...Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
High pressure of 1019 mb near 27.5N84W dominates the basin early this morning with light to gentle winds in the NE Gulf and moderate E to SE winds elsewhere, locally fresh NW of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are 1 to 3 ft across the NE half of the basin, and 3 to 6 ft across the SW half of the basin. Some reduced visibilities in haze are reported in the SW and W-central Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure extending across the basin from the western Atlantic will prevail through today, with gentle to moderate winds in the NE half of the basin, and moderate to fresh in the SW half of the basin. Winds will pulse fresh to strong in the evenings NW of the Yucatan Peninsula through at least this evening. A cold front is forecast to move into the NW Gulf late tonight into early Sun, stalling and dissipating near 23N early next week. Fresh to locally strong winds and building seas may follow the front through Sun night. High pressure will again dominate the basin by Tuesday and continue into Wednesday night.

...Discussion: Caribbean Sea
High pressure dominates north of the basin. Fresh NE to E winds prevail in the Windward Passage and the Lee of Cuba, and fresh to strong S of the Dominican Republic. Gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas prevail across the basin, up to 6 ft near the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, broad high pressure N of the basin will support pulsing fresh to locally strong winds near the Windward Passage, S of the Dominican Republic, and near the coast of northern Colombia through early Sun. Similar winds will return and pulse near northern Colombia Monday evening through Wednesday evening. Winds will pulse to moderate to locally fresh in the NW Caribbean through early Sun, then again by mid-week. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere, along with slight to moderate seas.

...Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
A surface trough is analyzed from 31N43W to the Tropical N Atlantic just E of the Lesser Antilles. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from 21N to 30N between 47W and 57W. Otherwise, high pressure dominates the Atlantic. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the Atlantic, except moderate to fresh from 11N to 24N between the coast of W central Africa and 35W, locally fresh to strong near the Cabo Verde Islands. Slight to moderate seas prevail across the tropical Atlantic, highest S of 20N.

For the forecast, a surface trough from 22N55W to just E of the Lesser Antilles will dissipate today. Otherwise, high pressure from near Bermuda to E central Florida will prevail through Sun supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds. A cold front is forecast to move into the NW waters Sun night, reaching from 31N72W to near Jupiter, Florida Monday evening, from 31N69W to the central Bahamas Tuesday evening, then from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Wednesday evening. Moderate to fresh winds, locally strong near 31N, are forecast to accompany the front, along with building seas. Otherwise seas will be mainly slight to moderate.

Forecaster: Jeffrey Lewitsky, National Hurricane Center