Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
8:15AM EDT (1215 UTC) Friday Jan 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America), Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC.

Active and Developing Storms
Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from a 987 mb low pressure located in the NW Atlantic to the central Bahamas and central Cuba. A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed winds to gale force both ahead of and following the front north of 29N, embedded in an area of strong to near-gale force conditions north of 25N and west of 65W. The front will reach from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Friday morning, and from 31N59W to 25N70W Saturday morning where it will stall and weaken. Winds will diminish below gale force accordingly through early Fri. Elsewhere, widespread fresh to strong winds will accompany the front through Fri. Rough to very rough seas are also expected ahead and behind the front through Fri. Another cold front may impact the basin late in the upcoming weekend.

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front will reach the NW Gulf tonight, supporting fresh to near gale-force N-NE winds and rough seas behind the front. The front will reach from Apalachicola, Florida to Tamaulipas, Mexico Saturday night, then from SW Florida to Veracruz, Mexico Sun evening and east of the basin by Sun night. Winds are expected to strengthen to gale-force behind the boundary late Saturday into early Sun, especially off Tampico, and then Veracruz late Sun morning. Rough to very rough seas will develop with these winds. Conditions will improve markedly on Mon.

Please read the latest High Sea Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 11N14W and continues southwestward to 05N18W. The ITCZ extends from 05N18W to 03N35W and to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 120 nm on both sides of the ITCZ.

...Discussion: Gulf Of America (Gulf Of Mexico)
Please read the Active & Developing Storms section about a Gale Warning.

A 1022 mb high pressure system dominates the Gulf of America, supporting moderate to fresh N winds over the E Gulf waters and rough seas over the E Gulf and Bay of Campeche. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. The dry, cold continental airmass moving across the basin is suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms.

For the forecast, marine conditions will quickly improve from NW to SE this morning. A reinforcing front will reach the NW Gulf tonight, supporting fresh to near gale-force N-NE winds and rough seas behind the front. The front will reach from Apalachicola, Florida to Tamaulipas, Mexico Saturday night, then from SW Florida to Veracruz, Mexico Sun evening and east of the basin by Sun night. Winds are expected to strengthen to gale-force behind the boundary late Saturday into early Sun, especially off Tampico, and then Veracruz late Sun morning. Rough to very rough seas will develop with these winds. Conditions will improve markedly on Mon. However, the pressure gradient will tighten again Tuesday into Wed, resulting in fresh to locally strong winds and moderate to rough seas across much of the basin..

...Discussion: Caribbean Sea
A cold front extends from Camaguey, Cuba to southern Belize. Moderate to fresh N winds and moderate seas are noted behind the boundary. A line of showers also extends from E Hispaniola to Panama. Moderate to fresh N winds and moderate to locally rough seas are found behind the front. Meanwhile, a strong subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends into the central and eastern Caribbean, sustaining moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the front is expected to stall from E Cuba to Honduras later today, and dissipate on Sat. The pressure gradient may tighten later in the upcoming weekend and early next week leading to increasing winds and building seas across the basin ahead of a reinforcing front. The front will arrive in the NW Caribbean early next week and the tight pressure gradient behind it will sustain fresh to strong NW winds and moderate to rough seas during most of next week. Meanwhile, fresh to strong winds will pulse offshore of NW Colombia tonight, reaching near- gale force at night starting Saturday night and into early next week.

...Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
Please read the Active & Developing Storms section about a Gale Warning.

Outside of the area of gales described above in the Active & Developing Storms section, a ridge extends from the north-central Atlantic to north of Hispaniola. Farther east, a broad upper low is centered near 22N37W. A weak surface trough is noted from 24N35W to 15N40W. Fresh to strong winds and 8 to 10 ft seas cover a large area north of 12N and east of 55W, south of the ridge. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will reach from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas this morning, and from 31N59W to 25N70W Saturday morning where it will stall and weaken. Widespread fresh to near gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas are found ahead and behind of the front. Gale force winds are occurring north of 29N. These winds will shift eastward today, before lifting north of our area this evening. Seas will gradually diminish into the weekend. Another cold front may impact the basin late in the upcoming weekend into early next week, supporting fresh to strong winds and rough seas..

Forecaster: Sandy Delgado, National Hurricane Center