Marine Weather Net

Cape Charles Light to Currituck Beach Light Offshore Forecast


TONIGHT

N
WINDS
5 - 15
KNOTS

TUE

NW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TUE NIGHT

S
WINDS
10 - 20
KNOTS

WED

SSW
WINDS
5 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ828 Forecast Issued: 429 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Tonight...N Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. Showers And Tstms Likely.
Tue...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S. Seas 3 To 6 Ft.
Tue Night...S Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.
Wed...S To Sw Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.
Wed Night...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 6 Ft.
Thu...W To Sw Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To Less Than 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.
Thu Night...Variable Winds Less Than 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.
Fri...N To Ne Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming E. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.
Fri Night...E Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming Se 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.
Sat...S To Se Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.
Sat Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming S To Sw 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
308pm EDT Monday Jun 24 2024

Synopsis
Drier weather returns tonight into tomorrow as high pressure builds into the region. Another cold front approaches the region later Wednesday and crosses the region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing the next chance for showers and thunderstorms. High pressure builds north of the region for the later portion of the week.

Near Term - Until 6am Tuesday Morning
As of 300pm EDT Monday... Early this afternoon, a cold front has made its way through much of the area and is currently located near or along the Albemarle Sound in NE NC. The severe weather threat has really diminished from earlier with environment being worked over from the earlier storms. Cannot rule out some lingering showers or storms right along the sound with locally heavy rainfall, but the overall severe threat is largely over. The Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been cancelled for our local area.

Behind the front, drier air continues to filter into the region with dewpoints now dropping into the upper 50s to lower 60s across our western counties. Cannot rule out a stray shower this afternoon, mainly across the southern half of the forecast area. Temperatures range from upper 80s to lower 90s behind the front.

All activity likely shifts south of the area by this evening with more comfortable weather settling into the region. Clouds will decrease from NW to SE, with mainly clear skies expected tonight. Temperatures fall back into the low to mid 60s away from the immediate coast, with upper 50s possible in the typically cooler rural spots.

Short Term - 6am Tuesday Morning Through Wednesday Night
As of 300pm EDT Monday... Key Messages:

- Remaining hot tomorrow, though humidity levels will be comfortable.

- Heat builds again Wednesday and heat indices may near or exceed 100 F again.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, with a few storms potentially being strong or severe.

Plentiful sunshine and dry conditions are expected for tomorrow with high pressure over the area. While air temperatures will be in the lower 90s (upper 80s at the coast), dewpoints will only be in the 50s to lower 60s, making for a more comfortable day.

High pressure slides offshore by Tuesday night. Winds become southerly Tuesday night which will bring more humid air back into the region. Lows Tuesday night will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s. The hot and humid weather returns again for Wednesday with temperatures rising back into the mid to upper 90s for much of the area (possibly 100 in a few typically hotter spots). Heat indices increase to 100-105 F in the afternoon and Heat Advisories may be needed. Another cold front will approach from the N/NW late in the day. Guidance is trending more aggressive with shower and storm potential with this feature, especially in the later afternoon and evening. The highest coverage will tend to focus over northern and northeast portions of the area. A few storms could approach strong or severe levels given moderately strong instability and increasing wind fields aloft (best chance N). Colorado State machine learning probabilities also show an increased potential for severe weather on Wednesday, so this will be something we will need to watch as we start to get closer in time. For now, Storm Prediction Center only has northern portions of the area highlighted in a Day 3 Marginal Risk of severe weather, but would not be shocked to see this expanded with future updates. Shower/storm chances linger into the overnight period with temps generally in the lower 70s.

Long Term - Thursday Through Monday
As of 300pm EDT Monday... Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and storms possible with a cold front Thursday.

- Flash drought conditions continuing across most of the area.

The front will drop S Wednesday night into Thursday, focusing the thunderstorm chances across southern VA and NE NC Thursday afternoon. Another period of stronger storms will be possible during the afternoon heating period, but lower shear and wind fields across the S suggest a lower threat. High temps Thursday generally in the upper 80s to around 90 F. High pressure will situate N of the area behind the front Friday, shifting offshore by the weekend. An isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out Friday across NC or the far SW Piedmont, but most should stay dry and mostly sunny. Hot weather is expected for the weekend as an upper-level dome of high pressure (594+ dm) expands across the S-central and SE CONUS. The ridge retreats W as a trough drops S of the Great Lakes later Sunday into Monday, bringing a cold front through the area. Scattered showers and storms are thus possible Sunday ahead of this front.

Unfortunately, generally low aerial coverage of rainfall through the extended period suggests continued dry conditions and potential drought development or expansion.

Marine
As of 300pm EDT Monday... Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) marine conditions expected tonight into Tuesday.

- Modest southerly flow returns Tuesday evening into Wednesday ahead of the next cold front.

Low pressure is moving off the coast of Maine this afternoon with a trailing cold front extending well to the SW into coastal SE VA and NE NC. Winds behind the front are generally N or NW ~15 kt while areas to the south and east remain WSW 10-15 kt. Waves in the bay are around 1 foot with 1-2 ft near the mouth. Seas range from 3-4 ft N to 2-3 ft for the waters south of Ches Light.

The cold front pushes offshore into this evening as weak high pressure builds in from the N. Drier air arrives behind the front but not expecting much in the way of cold advection. By tonight, the wind becomes NNW 5-10kt for most of the marine area, and 10-15kt offshore N of Parramore Island. The front washes out in vicinity of the Carolina coastal plain Tuesday with very weak flow expected through early-mid afternoon Tuesday. High pressure rebuilds offshore by the middle of the week with sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) southerly flow returning, generally S to SSW 10-15kt with gusts up to 20kt and strongest late afternoon and evening Tuesday and Wednesday. A brief period of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions is possible Tuesday evening in the Ches Bay, especially from New Point Comfort northward. Seas will mainly be 2-3ft tonight into Tuesday with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. Seas build to 3-4ft N midweek and waves in the Bay ~2ft with increasing southerly flow. 4-5 ft seas are possible for a brief period north of Parramore Island Wednesday afternoon and evening. Another weakening cold front pushes through the region Thursday into Thursday night. The wind shifts to NE then E late week and is expected to be at or below 15kt.

Low rip current risk is forecast for all beaches on Tuesday. A moderate rip risk is possible for the northern beaches on Wednesday as southerly flow and associated wind waves increase.

NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.

Marine
None.