Marine Weather Net

Cape Charles Light to Currituck Beach Light Offshore Forecast


TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
20 - 30
KNOTS

SUN

N
WINDS
15 - 25
KNOTS

SUN NIGHT

N
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

MON

E
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ828 Forecast Issued: 343 PM EST Sat Dec 03 2022

Tonight...Sw Winds 20 To 30 Kt, Becoming N. Seas 5 To 9 Ft. Chance Of Rain.
Sun...N Winds 15 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 9 Ft.
Sun Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Ne. Seas 3 To 6 Ft.
Mon...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 6 Ft.
Mon Night...Se Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.
Tue...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming S. Seas 4 To 5 Ft.
Tue Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.
Wed...S Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.
Wed Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W To Nw 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.
Thu...N To Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N To Ne. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.
Thu Night...N To Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 7 Ft.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
853pm EST Sat Dec 3 2022

Synopsis
Cold front crossed the area tonight, then pushes offshore overnight. High pressure builds in Sunday and becomes centered over the area Monday morning. High pressure moves off the coast late Monday. A frontal system will become stalled near the region, bringing milder, more unsettled weather for much of the week ahead.

Near Term - Through Sunday
As of 850pm EST Saturday... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front crossing the local area this evening. Winds in western portions of the area are becoming more westerly as a result. Latest obs just to the W of the area show winds from the WNW and dewpoints quickly dropping off into the 30s. Expect obs within the local area to follow suit. However, could see some patchy, shallow ground fog before they drop given the moisture on the ground from today's precip. Quick clearing continuing tonight into the early overnight with Cold Air Advection ensuing. Look for early morning lows in the upper 20s to low 30s well inland, mid 30s to low 40s over south central and SE VA and NE NC, under a gradually clearing sky.

Surface high pressure builds into the region from the west through the day, as cold air advection continues post-frontal. Quasi-zonal flow aloft will promote a mainly clear sky north, with partly to mostly clouds from US-460 on south as a weak upper disturbance crosses the Carolinas tomorrow. Cooler for Sunday with highs in the upper 40s to near 50 inland, mid to upper 40s along the coast and over the eastern shore.

Short Term - Sunday Night Through Monday Night
As of 315pm EST Saturday... Clearing across the south in subsidence behind the passing shortwave, as high pressure builds overhead Sunday night into Monday morning. A couple of degrees colder with lows in the lower to middle 20s inland, upper 20s to middle 30s along the coast.

High pressure slides off the coast Monday into Monday night. Low-level S-SE flow brings some modest moisture and thermal advection, yielding a milder day. Clouds start to increase late Monday and Monday night out ahead of low pressure pushing from the southern plains toward the mid-South. High temperatures are expected to range from the lower to upper 50s.

Models are slightly slower with frontal timing with the next system, and have accordingly pushed onset of any rain chances into late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Still appears warm front lifts north across the area late Monday night, then stalls across the region. Lows in the mid to upper 30s well inland, low to mid 40s along the coast.

Long Term - Tuesday Through Saturday
As of 315pm EST Saturday... GEFS and EPS still building the sub-tropical ridge north from the Gulf coast through the latter half of the week. Resultant upper flow looks to evolve from quasi-zonal to a W-SW flow aloft, stretching from the central Plains to the Mid- Atlantic. Meanwhile, surface frontal system remains nearly stationary across the east- central CONUS, separating a cold/dry air over the northern CONUS and warm/moist air over the southeastern CONUS.

The southern Mid-Atlantic will likely be situated in between, with the front in the vicinity through the end of the week. There will be waves of low pressure overrunning the ridge to the south and maintaining rain chances through the late week period. It's difficult to pinpoint specific timing of the more widespread rain, but while there will be rain-free windows each day, a rain chance will exist each day through the period Tuesday through Thursday. Medium range guidance trending toward best rain chances later Fri and Sat with a stronger system of PAC origin and its associated cold front crossing the region late next week. Cooler conditions then follow behind that system for next weekend. High temperatures during this time will likely range from the lower 50s to upper 60s, with early morning low temperatures in the 40s.

Marine
As of 230pm EST Saturday... Afternoon surface analysis indicates the cold front is starting to move into the far western portion the state. The rain out ahead of the front is working its way offshore, leading to gradually clearing conditions. Winds are currently south/southwesterly at 10-15kt with gusts around 20kt. Seas are 4-5ft across the north and 2-3ft for the southern coastal waters, with waves of 1-2ft in the Bay. Wind speeds will likely decrease slightly later this afternoon as the pressure gradient slackens a bit, but they will pick back up generally after 8pm as a surge of cold air advection pushes through behind the frontal passage. Expect winds to become northerly at 20-25kt with gusts up to 30kt across the coastal waters and Bay, and 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt for the lower James and Sound. The rivers could get some gusts to 15-20kt, but not expecting them to reach SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds as of now. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) are in effect for the Bay, lower James, and northern coastal waters currently, with the coastal waters south of Parramore Island and Currituck Sound going into effect at 10pm. Waves are expected to build to 4-6ft with waves becoming 3-4ft through the night.

High pressure will build into the region during the day on Sunday allowing winds to subside and SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) to drop off. Seas will gradually return to 2-3ft with waves of 1-2ft. Another weather system will push in later Monday into Tuesday with a chance of rain. The more active pattern looks to remain in place through the remainder of the week.

NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until 10am EST Sunday for ANZ630>632-634- 638-650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 10am EST Sunday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 1pm EST Sunday for ANZ654-656-658.