Cape Charles Light to Currituck Beach Light Offshore Forecast
| Today...Ne Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 10 To 17 Ft. Scattered Showers And Scattered Tstms. |
| Tonight...E To Ne Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 8 To 14 Ft. Scattered Showers. Scattered Tstms. |
| Thu...E To Ne Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 7 To 10 Ft. Scattered Showers And Tstms. |
| Thu Night...N To Ne Winds 15 To 25 Kt, Becoming N 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 6 To 8 Ft. Tstms And Scattered Showers. |
| Fri...N Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. |
| Fri Night...N Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. |
| Sat...N Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. |
| Sat Night...N Winds 15 To 25 Kt, Becoming Ne 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft. |
| Sun...N To Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 6 To 11 Ft. |
| Sun Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Ne 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 6 To 10 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 146pm EDT Wednesday September 27 2023 Synopsis Strong high pressure over Quebec and lingering low pressure offshore will lead to persistent cloudy and cool conditions through at least Saturday. High pressure settles over the area by the later half of the weekend into next week. Another low pressure system may form well offshore. Near Term - Through Tonight As of 1015am EDT Wednesday... Strong high pressure (~1035 mb) remains in place across srn Quebec this morning with surface ridging extending S-SW into the Mid- Atlantic states. The remnant low and associated vorticity of Ophelia remains offshore of the Eastern Shore and is slowly drifting S. This is a quintessential cold air damming (CAD) setup for the local area, with persistent N-NE flow on the E side of the high, which continues to funnel cool and moist air into the area. Not much change expected to weather conditions across the area today. Low overcast hangs on through this afternoon, bringing another cool and cloudy day across the area. Currently seeing a few breaks in the clouds on the lower MD Eastern Shore given some drier low-level air up there. Current temps are in the upper 50s-mid 60s (highest SE, lowest W/NW). Dropped highs a degree or two this afternoon given the CAD and cloud cover, which leads to max temps in the mid- upper 60s for most, with Hampton Roads and NE NC having the best chance of touching 70. A gusty NE wind will also remain with gusts to 20-25 along the coast. In terms of precip, only expecting very light rain or drizzle through today given the dry mid and upper levels. Any Quantitative Precipitation Forecast would be very sparse and limited to a few hundredths of an inch. Isentropic overrunning (on 300-305k sfc) dives SSW into the Carolinas tonight. This, in tandem with some drier LLVL air once again advecting into the region from the north will lower areal coverage of any drizzle, and could even serve to give a few breaks in the clouds over northern sections of the area. Any breaks are short-lived, though as clouds move back in late. Mostly cloudy to overcast and cool on average with early morning lows in the mid to upper 50s, to around 60 at the coast. Short Term - Thursday Through Friday As of 315am EDT Wednesday... Thursday and Friday (especially Thursday) have the potential to be unsettled for most of the FA. The positively-tilted upper trough drops across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians Thu into Thu night. Meanwhile, the inverted sfc trough offshore sharpens some and also drifts westward. The arriving upper trough will increase forcing for ascent, and provide a better focus for rain showers with the CAD remaining in place. Probability of Precipitation has been nudged upward over eastern portions, and remain 20-30% for the I-95 corridor, 30-50% along the coast, highest over the MD coast. The high also moves S towards New England while weakening some (<1030 mb), thus the pressure gradient/winds will be less, but remains gusty at the coast. There may be some clearing across the W/SW Friday as the CAD weakens some, which will also be accompanied w/ lighter NE winds and drier low- levels. Lingering cloud cover will keep temperatures below climo normal, and have stayed on the cooler side of guidance which results in highs 67-75 Thurs and 71-76 Fri. Lows Thurs and Fri night in the mid 50s-mid 60s. Long Term - Friday Night Through Tuesday As of 305am EDT Wednesday... No major changes to forecast rationale for the upcoming weekend. High pressure lingers over New England through the weekend with some degree of CAD continuing to influence the weather picture across the region. Meanwhile, as the previously referenced mid- level trough translates offshore, weak coastal low pressure looks to develop off the coast along a stationary front this weekend. Model trends continue to trend back toward a drier solution, with developing low pressure system remaining far enough offshore to keep majority of precipitation away from the local area. However, clouds will remain prevalent in the forecast, especially through early Sunday, with spotty light rain showers and drizzle remaining possible along the coast, while remaining dry inland. By later Sunday and Mon, the high pressure that has been well to our N will shift S towards the Great Lakes/Mid- Atlantic with considerably less onshore flow, which could allow for some sun to creep back into the picture by Sunday, with a better chance on Monday. By the beginning of next week, the upper ridge inches E, with blended guidance suggesting temps start to moderate a bit through the middle of next week. As the shift before said, the long term period remains a bit uncertain past Sun/Monday time frame, but latest trends continue to suggest a trend back toward a clearing sky and more seasonal normal temperatures. Temperatures continue linger just below climo normal through the weekend, before inching closer to climo norms Monday and Tues of next week. Highs in the 70s Sat/Sat, mid/upper 70s-around 80 Sun/Mon. Lows in the upper 50s NW to low-mid 60s SE. Marine As of 315am EDT Wednesday... Early this morning, the remnant low of Ophelia remains well offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. Meanwhile, strong (~1034mb) high pressure remains located over Quebec and is ridging down into the Mid Atlantic region. Remaining windy over the waters this morning with a NNE wind ranging from 15 to 25 knots with gusts around 25 to 30 knots. Seas have built substantially and range from around 7 to 10 feet, waves in the Bay range from 3 to 6 feet (highest at the mouth). Strong N to NE wind is expected to persist through the remainder of the week and into the weekend with strong high pressure remaining to our NNE and low pressure or an inverted trough off the Mid Atlantic coast. Winds will range from 10 to 20 knots with gusts of 25 to 30 knots at times into the weekend. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all marine zones, with only potentially the upper rivers being allowed to expire later this morning. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) will likely continue for the Chesapeake Bay into early Friday (likely longer at the mouth) and into this weekend (and beyond) for the coastal waters due to elevated seas. As a result of the elevated NNE-NE winds this week, seas continue to hover around 7 to 10 feet today into tomorrow, before diminishing slightly. Seas briefly diminish to around 5 to 7 feet later tomorrow into early Saturday before building again this weekend. Waves in the Bay will average 3 to 5 feet across the Lower Bay/Mouth and 2 to 4 feet for the remainder of the Bay today into this weekend. High Surf Advisories are in effect along the coast today into tonight. Elevated seas will continue through the week, with a high risk of rip currents/large breaking waves into this weekend. Tides / Coastal Flooding As of 630am EDT Wednesday... Coastal flooding continues through the next several high tide cycles. This evening's high tide is expected to be the highest tide cycle this week. Still think that locations from Bayford to Duck have the highest chance of seeing moderate tidal flooding. Not as confident that other locations in Hampton Roads and up the tidal rivers will see moderate flooding, but moderate flooding is certainly possible at a few sites up the rivers during the evening high tide cycle. Coastal Flood Warnings are in effect for Northampton, VA and all of the W side of the Ches Bay through tonight due to the potential for moderate coastal flooding. Additionally, a Coastal Flood Warning has been issued for Dorchester, Wicomico, Somerset, and Accomack due to the potential for moderate tidal flooding (especially in the area of Bishops Head MD) late tonight. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...Coastal Flood Warning until 5am EDT Thursday for MDZ021>023. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10pm EDT this evening for MDZ024- 025. High Surf Advisory until 2am EDT Thursday for MDZ025. NC...Coastal Flood Warning until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ102. High Surf Advisory until 6am EDT Thursday for NCZ102. VA...High Surf Advisory until 2am EDT Thursday for VAZ099-100. Coastal Flood Warning until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ095>098-100-525. High Surf Advisory until 6am EDT Thursday for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Warning until 4am EDT Thursday for VAZ075-077. Coastal Flood Warning until 2am EDT Thursday for VAZ078- 084>086-089-090-093-523-524. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1am EDT Thursday for VAZ099. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 1am EDT Friday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EDT Thursday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 10pm EDT Thursday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EDT Friday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. |
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