Cape Charles Light to Currituck Beach Light Offshore Forecast
| Today...E Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 9 To 16 Ft. Scattered Showers. |
| Tonight...E To Se Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 9 To 14 Ft. |
| Thu...S Winds 15 To 25 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 7 To 12 Ft. Scattered Showers And Tstms. |
| Thu Night...W Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 8 To 13 Ft. |
| Fri...W Winds 25 To 30 Kt. Seas 9 To 15 Ft. |
| Fri Night...W Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 7 To 13 Ft. |
| Sat...W To Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 8 Ft. |
| Sat Night...W To Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming N To Nw. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. |
| Sun...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Sun Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 406am EDT Wednesday Oct 29 2025 Synopsis Low pressure approaches from the west today as high pressure remains anchored to the north. This area of low pressure tracks northeast along the Appalachians tonight, with the trailing cold front sweeping across the area Thursday afternoon. High pressure builds south of the area Friday into the weekend. Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening As of 340am EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Cloudy and cool today with light rain developing. Remaining breezy along the coast. GOES water vapor channels depict an upper low over the eastern Great Lakes, with another upper low over southern MO/northern AR. At the surface, 1033mb high pressure is centered over central QB and extends to the S into the Mid-Atlantic region. The low pressure system from yesterday has moved well E of the Mid- Atlantic coast, with a trailing front off the Southeast coast. Overcast early this morning with a NE wind persisting, and gusting to 20-25 mph along the coast. Temperatures are in the upper 40s to mid 50s. There are some areas of light rain and drizzle across far SE VA and NE NC as well as in vicinity of the MD coast. The upper low to the SW pushes E into the Mid-South today as the other upper low pivots to the NW. Meanwhile, there is decent model consensus for a surface low to develop along the boundary off the Southeast coast. This low then lifts N with light rain developing along its northern flank across the local area this afternoon. Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for today (12z Wed-00z Thu) should generally be less than 0.25", with locally 0.25-0.5" possible or far s-central/SE VA and NE NC. The wind will be NE 10-15 mph today inland, and 15-20 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph along the coast. Overcast conditions and NE flow today will result in high temperatures in the lower 50s across the Piedmont, to the mid 50s for the I-95 corridor, to the upper 50s to mid 60s along the coast. Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through Friday As of 340am EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Additional rain and breezy conditions are expected tonight as another strong low pressure system approaches from the west. - Rain chances linger through the first half of Thursday before beginning to dry out during the afternoon/evening. The upper low over the Mid-South lifts NE toward the central Appalachians tonight with surface low pressure developing in vicinity of the Blue Ridge. This will result in a warm front lifting N into the local area. By Thursday, The upper system and surface low lift N of the area, with a cold front sweeping through from the W during the afternoon. Rain is expected to become more widespread and heavier across the Piedmont by this evening and gradually become more showery, with a few rumbles of thunder possible. 50th percentile Quantitative Precipitation Forecast from 00z Thursday to 00z Friday from the 29/00z EPS/GEFS is mainly 0.5-1.25" across the northern tier of the area, with 0.5-0.75" for central VA, and less than 0.5" farther S. There is a little more spread in 90th percentile is up to 1.5" across the northern tier of the area. Overall, the flood threat is quite low with this system. The 10th percentile form both ensemble systems during this 24hr period is around 0.5-0.8" across the northern tier of the area (which largely missed out on the first system), so most of the area should receive a beneficial rainfall. Given that a warm front lifts through the area late tonight/Thursday morning, there will be a low level veering wind profile with some convective potential possible. Therefore, Storm Prediction Center has the area in a Day 1 and Day 2 marginal severe risk, but this is generally a few hours either side of 12z/8am Thursday. Low level-lapse rates are very poor so the threat is very minimal. Rapidly improving conditions are expected from SW-NE Thursday afternoon. Temperatures should be steady this evening, then begin to rise overnight (especially toward the coast), and then reach highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s Thursday. The wind should become SE then S tonight into Thursday morning, and then shift to W with gusts to 20- 25 mph as the cold front moves through Thursday afternoon. High pressure builds across the Southeast Thursday night into Friday as low pressure lifts well NE of the region. Mainly clear/sunny Thursday night into Friday with lows in the 40s followed by highs in the lower to mid 60s. A breezy westerly wind is expected Friday with gusts to 25-30 mph. Long Term - Friday Night Through Tuesday As of 340am EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Drying out with below average temperatures Friday into the weekend. High pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures Friday night will drop into the upper 30s to mid 40s. Below normal temperatures will continue Saturday and Sunday, with highs ranging from 60-65F. Chilly overnight lows are forecast, and there could be a frost potential for portions of the area where the growing season is still in effect Saturday night. Another low pressure system may try to move through the area early next week but confidence is low at this time. High temperatures should generally be in the 60s early next week, with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Marine As of 405am EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories remain in effect across most of the local waters through tonight due to elevated NE winds today becoming E tonight. - Gale Warnings have been issued for the northern coastal waters tonight due to E winds increasing to 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. - A High Surf Advisory remains in effect through tonight and into early Thursday given dangerous nearshore seas of 8-12 ft. - Another period of high-end Small Craft Advisory or low-end Gale conditions is likely Thursday night into Friday night due to elevated W winds behind a cold front. Latest surface analysis depicted an area of low pressure continuing to move NE offshore with a strong ~1034mb area of high pressure across southern Quebec. Winds early this morning were generally NE 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. As the surface low moves farther offshore today, the pressure gradient slackens and winds gradually diminish to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt (gusts up to 30 kt across the northern coastal waters). However, 00z guidance has come into better agreement on a secondary weak surface low forming off the Carolina coast today before lifting north across eastern NC this evening into tonight. This low will likely lift north along a warm front from another low in the Appalachian Mountains into early Thu morning, helping to tighten the pressure gradient once again late today into tonight. As a result, winds become E 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt across the Ches Bay and southern coastal waters and 25- 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt across the northern coastal waters tonight. Wind probs for 34 kt gusts have increased to 50-70% across the coastal waters, 30-40% across the lower bay and 40-50% across the upper bay. Given the higher confidence (and greater chance for several hours of Gale gusts) across the northern coastal waters, have issued Gale Warnings for tonight. Have held off on Gale Warnings for the Ches Bay for now given uncertainty regarding the duration and extent of the 34 kt gusts tonight as there appears to be a relatively short window of ~3 hours (centered around 5z Thu) where gusts up to 34 kt are possible tonight. However, cannot rule out a short-fused Gale Warning (greatest chance across the upper bay) if model guidance today trends higher with the winds. Winds diminish and become SE Thu behind the warm front with a period of sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) or low-end SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions possible. Winds become SW and then W behind a cold front Thu evening into Thu night with another period of high end SCA (Small Craft Advisory) to low-end Gales likely from late Thu into Fri night. Gale conditions are possible with this surge given strong CAA. However, will hold off on any potential Gale Watches for now given the current Gale Warnings already in effect. Wind probs remain generally low for now across the Ches Bay (<20 %) with higher probs across the coastal waters (50-70%). Winds diminish this weekend as high pressure builds in. Looking ahead, another period of elevated winds and seas is possible next week, however, confidence remains low. Waves were 3-5 ft (5-6 ft at the mouth of the bay) and seas were 8- 13 ft (highest across the NC coastal waters) early this morning. Waves briefly subside today before becoming elevated again tonight. Meanwhile, seas remain elevated through Fri night (potentially into Sat). As such, High Surf Advisories remain in effect across the southern beaches through tonight and into Thu across the northern beaches. Tides / Coastal Flooding As of 900pm EDT Tuesday... Widespread minor to locally moderate flooding occurred this afternoon due to the persistent and strong NE winds pushing tidal anomalies to 1.5-2.5 ft above normal across the Jame river. Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect here. Farther north, the higher high tide has passed, so the Warning along the Rappahannock has been replaced with an Advisory for the Wednesday morning high tide. The higher tidal anomalies begin to shift into the upper bay by the middle-later portions of the week, with increasing confidence in southerly flow by Thursday. This would likely yield moderate to locally major flooding at most gauges north of Windmill Point, which could continue into Friday for the Bay-side of the Lower MD Eastern Shore as the wind becomes westerly behind a cold front. Coastal Flood Watches have been issued from Wednesday night into Thursday night. Additionally, the MD Atlantic shore should see minor flooding starting Wednesday afternoon and possibly again Wednesday night; a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued to cover this potential here. Water levels should fall rather quickly late in the week into the weekend as winds turn offshore and decrease. Of note, we are entering a window of relatively lower astronomical tides, so the tidal flooding threat is not quite as high as it could be with strong NE flow in October. For example, the predicted astronomical high tide at Sewells Point this afternoon is near 2.7 ft MLLW, so a 2.5 ft anomaly would still just be in minor flood stage (~5.3 ft MLLW). During the next King Tides in early Nov, the predicted highest astronomical high tide at Sewells Point reaches 3.54 ft MLLW on 11/6. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4am EDT Thursday for MDZ021>023. Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through late Thursday night for MDZ021>023. Coastal Flood Advisory from 10am this morning to 6am EDT Thursday for MDZ024-025. High Surf Advisory until 4pm EDT Thursday for MDZ025. NC...High Surf Advisory until 7am EDT Thursday for NCZ102. VA...High Surf Advisory until 7am EDT Thursday for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11am EDT this morning for VAZ075>078-085-086-521-522. Coastal Flood Watch from 11am EDT this morning through late Thursday night for VAZ075>078-085-086-521-522. Coastal Flood Warning until 10am EDT Thursday for VAZ081-082- 089-090-093-524. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10am EDT Thursday for VAZ083-084- 518-520-523. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6am EDT Thursday for VAZ095>098- 525. Coastal Flood Advisory until 9am EDT Thursday for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for VAZ099-100. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 10am EDT Thursday for ANZ630>632- 634. Small Craft Advisory until 4am EDT Thursday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EDT this morning for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Thursday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EDT this evening for ANZ650- 652-654. Gale Warning from 6pm this evening to 7am EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652. Gale Warning from 6pm this evening to 4am EDT Thursday for ANZ654. Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Friday for ANZ656-658. |
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