Cape Charles Light to Currituck Beach Light Offshore Forecast
| Today...S Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 7 Ft. Showers And Scattered Tstms. |
| Tonight...S Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 6 To 8 Ft. Numerous Showers And Tstms. |
| Mon...S To Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 6 To 8 Ft. Showers And Tstms Likely. |
| Mon Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 7 Ft. Showers And Tstms Likely. |
| Tue...S To Sw Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. |
| Tue Night...S To Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. |
| Wed...S To Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Wed Night...S To Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Thu...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming S. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Thu Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 156pm EDT Sunday August 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated Discussion, including 18z Aviation .KEY MESSAGES... 1) An unsettled pattern prevails today through midweek. Expect near average temperatures, with increasingly humid conditions, and daily chances of showers and storms. 2) A more typical summertime pattern returns for the latter half of the week. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms remain possible, with near to slightly above normal temperatures prevailing through next weekend. As of 155pm EDT Sunday... KEY MESSAGE 1...An unsettled pattern prevails through midweek. Expect near average temperatures, with increasingly humid conditions, and daily chances of showers and storms. Latest surface analysis reveals 1024+ mb high pressure remaining well offshore near Bermuda this afternoon. To the west, a slow-moving low pressure system continues to drift NE across the Ohio River Valley, with an associated cold front draped across the eastern OH/TN Valleys into the Deep South. Aloft, an amplified upper trough tracks toward the region this afternoon, with deep SSW flow drawing tropical moisture north into the local area. Regional soundings and early afternoon mesoanalysis reveal PW values (Precipitable Water values) around 2-2.25", with even higher values (to ~ 2.50") just to our south expected to push over the region later this afternoon and tonight as the dampening upper trough swings east. An earlier round of showers lifted across the US-15 corridor in the VA Piedmont, dropping up to 1" of rain in spots from Louisa to Farmville to west of South Hill, with locally higher totals just outside our CWA (County Warning Area) to the N and W. Additional isolated to widely scattered showers have developed as of this writing along a differential heating boundary over central VA, as well as farther south along a coastal trough over eastern NC. The southern activity will continue lifting NNE across south- central/SE VA and eastern NC this afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall is expected given the deepening moisture profile, and while storm motions should remain progressive enough to preclude widespread flooding, localized flash flooding remains possible where training occurs. Deep-layer shear remains relatively weak, but a low-end severe threat continues—primarily dependent on isolated wet microbursts developing along the previously referenced narrow differential heating boundary near the I-95 corridor through early this evening. Storm Prediction Center maintains a Marginal Risk along and west of I-95, with isolated damaging wind gusts as the primary threat. Rain chances ramp down for much of the region overnight, leading to a warm and muggy night. However, the latest CAM guidance highligheights two main corridors where convective activity could persist into the late night hours as additional MCVs embedded in the SW flow arrive: the VA Piedmont and along the coast. Have lingered higher Probability of Precipitation in these areas a bit longer. Despite increasing moisture /IVT of +3-4 StdDev/ along the coast supporting a few heavier downpours, antecedent dry conditions over the past few days should preclude flash flood issues. Farther inland though, flash flood concerns remain a bit elevated across the Piedmont, where a couple of rounds of rainfall have already occurred. The 12z HREF probabilities continue to support localized 2-3"+ totals of additional rainfall today and tonight. Neighborhood probabilities for rain rates exceeding 1"/hr are above 70% along the US-15 corridor W/NW of the Richmond metro, with a low (~10%) probability for 3"/3hr totals in that same area. Still not confident enough for any Flood Watch areas given the relatively limited area of focus, but any training cells across the piedmont will need to be closely monitored this evening. For Monday, more widespread showers and storms are likely as shortwaves attendant to the dampening upper trough lift across the area. While guidance varies on exact areal coverage, the continued unsettled pattern supports a persistence-based forecast featuring a localized heavy rain threat and an isolated, low-end severe risk. The trough weakens further Tuesday and Wednesday, but scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms capable of heavy rainfall remain expected as deep moisture lingers despite weakening SW flow aloft. Given the atmospheric profile characterized by weak unidirectional flow and tall, skinny CAPE—localized flash flooding will remain a threat each day through Wednesday. However, the severe threat should stay low due to poor mid-level lapse rates, a near-saturated vertical column, and weak shear. Days 1-3 (Sunday-Tuesday) remain in a WPC Marginal ERO, as the overall flash flood risk remains localized due to the lack of a strong large-scale surface boundary. High temperatures will average slightly below normal early this week owing to widespread cloud cover and daily precipitation. NBM numbers do look a bit high compared to thickness temperatures, especially given persistent cloud cover, but have been left more or less in place for now with limited change to messaging expected. KEY MESSAGE 2...A more typical summertime pattern returns for the latter half of the week. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms remain possible, with near to slightly above normal temperatures prevailing through next weekend. While less widespread than early in the week, more typical summer time diurnally-driven isolated to scattered convective chances return Thursday through Saturday. Given decreased convective coverage and more sunshine, high temperatures rebound to near or slightly above normal in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Dewpoints lingering in the mid-to- upper 70s will maintain muggy conditions, pushing heat indices toward 100 degrees for a good portion of the area Thursday through Saturday. However, heat headlines are not anticipated at this time. Marine As of 230am EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Southerly winds increase this afternoon into Monday. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for all local waters except the upper rivers. - Shower and storm chances return today and continue through this week. Winds are slowly diminishing early this morning with most sensors reporting S or SSE winds of 10-15 kt. Waves in the bay are around 2 ft with seas 2-3 ft. Expect a lull in the stronger S flow to linger through the morning before the gradient between low pressure to the west and high pressure offshore tightens again late this afternoon into the overnight hours. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) headlines have been issued for all local waters (minus the upper James, Rappahannock, and York rivers) starting at 4PM this afternoon. S and SE winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt for the bay, sound, and lower James by mid to late afternoon and continue in that range into at least Monday morning. Offshore, winds increase to 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt during the same period. There remains some uncertainty as to how long the stronger southerly flow persists on Monday, so some extension to ongoing headlines are possible. Waves build to 2-3 ft tonight in the Ches Bay while seas are forecast to increase to 3-5 ft S and 4-6 ft N. Seas will slowly drop off from S to N late Monday afternoon into the evening. Sub-advisory conditions are then expected to dominate from Tuesday through late week. Shower and storm chances return to the area today and linger through much of the week. While widespread severe convection appears unlikely, locally higher winds/waves/seas will accompany the stronger thunderstorm cores. There is a Moderate Rip current risk at the northern beaches today and Monday. The southern beaches may require an upgrade to moderate risk on Monday in subsequent forecast cycles. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 4pm this afternoon to 10am EDT Monday for ANZ630>634-639. Small Craft Advisory from 4pm this afternoon to 10pm EDT Monday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 4pm this afternoon to 7pm EDT Monday for ANZ656-658. |
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