Cape Charles Light to Currituck Beach Light Offshore Forecast
| Tonight...S To Sw Winds 15 To 25 Kt, Becoming W To Sw. Seas 4 To 7 Ft. |
| Thu...W Winds 15 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 7 Ft. |
| Thu Night...W To Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N To Nw. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. |
| Fri...N To Ne Winds Less Than 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. |
| Fri Night...N Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 25 To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 6 Ft, Building To 6 To 11 Ft. |
| Sat...N To Ne Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 7 To 13 Ft. |
| Sat Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming E To Ne 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft. |
| Sun...E Winds 20 To 30 Kt, Becoming Sw 25 To 35 Kt. Seas 7 To 11 Ft. |
| Sun Night...W To Sw Winds 15 To 25 Kt, Becoming Nw. Seas 7 To 13 Ft. |
| Mon...Nw Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 6 To 11 Ft. |
| Mon Night...Nw Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 6 To 11 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 215am EST Thu Jan 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increasing confidence for a major winter storm this weekend and very cold temperatures behind it. Recent model guidance has decreased the amount of snowfall and increased the amount of ice, but there remains uncertainty regarding the precipitation types and timing. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Chances for a major winter storm impacting the region remain high, but confidence is still low in regards to specific precipitation types. Users should continue to keep a very close eye on the forecast over the coming days. 2) A prolonged period of very cold temperatures is increasingly likely from Saturday into at least the middle of next week with the potential for temperatures to remain below freezing for several days. 3) A light wintry mix is possible on Friday, however, confidence is low. Precipitation will most likely be rain and if any wintry mix, no accumulation is expected. As of 330pm EST Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Chances for a major winter storm impacting the region remain high, but confidence is still low in regards to specific precipitation types. Users should continue to keep a very close eye on the forecast over the coming days. What We Know So Far: - Surface cold air: Very strong low-level Cold Air Advection will push into the region Friday night/Saturday morning behind a strong Arctic cold front. 850-925 mb temperatures will drop to -15 to -5 degrees C as a very strong high pressure (~1045 mb) builds into the Midwest. With this, the temperatures at the surface will be very cold with temperatures in the teens to lower 20s across the area Saturday morning. - Favorable upper pattern: The upper air pattern is favorable for an active storm pattern and a major winter storm, with a strong Alaskan ridge, an amplified southern stream over the S/SW CONUS, and troughing to our north. This will allow for Gulf moisture to interact with the cold Arctic air mass. - Plentiful moisture: The 12z deterministic and ensembles continue to show a widespread 1.0-2.0" of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast across the local area. What We Are Still Unsure Of: - Precipitation types: The 12z model runs continue to lift the "warm nose" of warmer temperatures aloft falling somewhere across the area behind the initial onset of snow. This will change the precipitation over from snow to a mixed precip. The 12z deterministic GFS (Global Forecast System) shows freezing rain totals primarily in the SE VA/NE NC areas, while the deterministic Canadian and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) bring freezing rain amounts across the majority of the forecast area, actually excluding the far SE coastal areas like VA Beach and Currituck Outer Banks. The exclusion is from the depiction that surface temperatures will reach above freezing from the warmer air mass wrapping around the coastal low that develops along the stalled front to our southwest that then moves offshore just to the south of the area resulting in plain rain. Where this line of warmer temperatures ...both in the mid levels or at the surface... is where there lies much uncertainty. With this said, some sleet or freezing rain is likely behind the onset of snow or the southern portions of the area. The precipitation type forecast will likely change (potentially dramatically) on future forecasts depending on the trends in the guidance. - Timing: Confidence is continuing to increase in regards to timing, but there are still some differences amongst the models. Currently looks like precipitation will start around Saturday afternoon/evening mostly as snow for all, then transition to the wintry mix for some areas early Sunday morning, then exiting the area as snow again Monday morning/afternoon. Precip will likely conclude by Monday evening. Snow Probs: With this shift towards a wintry mix, the probs for higher amounts of snowfall have decreased for most of the area, with the highest amounts in the north. The GEFS guidance shows a 50-70% chance of >=6" for the area north of Richmond/Petersburg and 20-40% for the southern half of the area. The EPS shows a tighter gradient with a 50-60% chance for >=6" for just the northern counties to a 0% chance for the NE NC counties. Additionally, the LREF probs for ice accumulations for areas south of Richmond and away from the coast between 50-70% chance for 0.25" of ice and a 30-60% chance of 0.50". In conclusion, confidence is increasing in a major winter storm for the area but the fine details will need to continue to be ironed out. With the onset of the event still far out, have held off on a Winter Storm Watch at this time in collaboration with the neighboring offices, but the midnight update will likely need to issue for the majority, if not all, of the area. KEY MESSAGE 2...A prolonged period of very cold temperatures is increasingly likely from Saturday into at least the middle of next week with the potential for temperatures to remain below freezing for several days. After a brief warm up Thursday, the Arctic cold front will usher in a very cold air mass as a strong Canadian high pressure (~1045 mb) from the Northern Plains into the Midwest Friday into Saturday. Additionally, behind the weekend system, a large trough builds into the region through next week. This combination (along with any snowpack) will allow for very cold temperatures to continue from Saturday through at least the middle of next week. Highs may remain below freezing for an extended period of time from Friday night through Tuesday night (maybe even longer) with extended model guidance showing highs in the 30s through late next week. Meanwhile, lows in the low-mid teens inland (lower 20s along the coast) Friday night, low-mid teens inland and low-mid 20s along the coast Saturday night, lower teens W to mid 20s E Sunday night, and low-mid single digits Monday night are forecast. This doesn't factor in wind chill, which could be below zero. This prolonged period of very cold temperatures behind the winter storm could be quite dangerous for those without power. KEY MESSAGE 3...A light wintry mix is possible on Friday, however, confidence is low. Precipitation will most likely be rain and if any wintry mix, no accumulation is expected. Although not as impactful as the winter system this weekend, it's still worth mentioning that a light period of winter weather is possible Friday afternoon as well. Model guidance no longer outputs any accumulating snowfall, but a few flurries are possible in the northern half of the area, This is once again a case of cold air chasing moisture, which like last Sunday, often doesn't lead to much accumulation. Marine As of 215am EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Gale Watches have been issued Friday night for the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters south of Cape Charles Light. - Another period of strong NE winds is likely Sunday as coastal low pressure develops along the stalled surface front. High pressure moved offshore yesterday, allowing SW winds to develop across the region. However, winds are not quite as strong as previously modeled so will cancel the ongoing SCA (Small Craft Advisory) headlines for the middle bay and northern coastal waters. Waves are around 2 ft with seas 3-4 ft. A quieter period is in store for today and Friday despite a frontal passage late tonight. The initial effects from this front will be a wind shift to NW but speeds remain 5-10 kt. Strong cold advection moves into the region Friday night with rapidly strengthening winds after sunset with sustained NNW winds 25-30 kt and gusts to 35 kt over the bay and southern coastal waters with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions elsewhere. In coordination with neighboring offices, have issued a Gale Watch for the Ches Bay and southern coastal waters Friday evening through the overnight hours. Confidence in seeing sustained Gale conditions is somewhat lower for the northern coastal waters so will let subsequent shifts assess the potential for Gale headlines there. Winds decrease below Gale thresholds on Saturday but will remain solid SCA. Uncertainty increases thereafter regarding some timing and strength issues with the development and track of coastal low pressure Sunday into Monday. Regardless, it appears that at least SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions will persist into early next week with Gales possible over portions of the area. Strong cold advection returns on the back side of the departing low through sunrise Tuesday. Waves and seas will build along with the stronger winds early Saturday and likely peak on Sunday in the 3-5 ft and 6-9 ft ranges, respectively. Freezing spray will be a concern as well, especially Monday night as cold advection ramps back up. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon for MDZ021>025. NC...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon for NCZ012>014-030-031. VA...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093- 095>100-509>525. Marine Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for ANZ630>632-634. Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for ANZ656-658. |
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