Cape Charles Light to Currituck Beach Light Offshore Forecast
15 - 20
5 - 15
15 - 20
25 - 35
35 - 45
35 - 45
|Today...W To Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming N 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 8 Ft.|
|Tonight...N To Ne Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming S To Se. Seas 4 To 7 Ft.|
|Fri...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 7 Ft.|
|Fri Night...S To Sw Winds 25 To 35 Kt. Seas 8 To 14 Ft.|
|Sat...Sw Winds 35 To 45 Kt. Seas 13 To 22 Ft.|
|Sat Night...Sw Winds 35 To 45 Kt, Becoming Nw 25 To 35 Kt. Seas 14 To 24 Ft.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 20 To 30 Kt, Becoming N 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 9 To 15 Ft.|
|Sun Night...N Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming E To Se 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 5 To 9 Ft.|
|Mon...S Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming S To Sw 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Mon Night...Sw Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
414am EDT Thu Mar 30 2023
A dry cold front pushes south of the area this morning, with high pressure building over the region this afternoon through Friday morning. The high slides off the coast on Friday in advance of a cold front approaching from the west. The front moves through late Saturday bringing windy conditions, with high pressure returning for Sunday.
Near Term - Through Tonight
As of 350am EDT Thursday... The latest WX analysis indicates the cold front dropping through the local area with winds turning northerly in the wake of the front. Temperatures are mostly in the 40s, with some 30s in the piedmont. While patchy Frost may be observed, expect temperatures to be steady or even rise slightly w/ the mixing as the front drops through during the next few hrs.
Very dry air will push in from the north later this morning into the afternoon. Thursday behind the cold front, with dewpoints falling into the teens across NE portions of the area. High will only be in the lower 50s NE (and also at the coast in SE VA and NE NC) to the lower 60s SW. Mainly sunny, with SCT afternoon clouds well inland. High pressure moves offshore tonight with lows in the mid/upper 30s to lower 40s for most (except lower to mid 30s across the Eastern Shore). Have patchy frost mentioned in the gridded forecast, mainly across the MD eastern shore. However, did not issue a Freeze Warning given that it will be marginal at best with pockets of rural areas potentially touching 32F briefly. Also, expect temperatures to rise back above freezing before sunrise as SSW winds begin to develop.
Short Term - Friday Through Saturday Night
As of 400am EDT Thursday... High pressure shifts offshore on Friday, placing in the region in warm SW flow. Highs Friday range from the upper 60s to low- mid 70s under a partly sunny sky. Becoming breezy Friday with a SW wind of 15-20 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph developing late morning into the afternoon. Most of the moisture stays NW of the CWA (County Warning Area) Friday afternoon, though a small chance for showers is possible across the Piedmont by mid-late afternoon, spreading E late. Deeper moisture moves into at least northern portions of the area Friday night as strong low pressure tracks from the mid MS Valley to the Great Lakes. Remaining warm Friday night with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Probability of Precipitation for showers are likely across the N and chance across the S (to only 15-20% in NC).
By Saturday morning, expect showers to be ongoing across the local area with the model consensus still fairly similar to previous runs: ~985mb surface low will be centered across northern Michigan or SW Ontario with a potent upper low lagging back to the W over Lake Michigan. Probability of Precipitation will be highest (50-70%) through Saturday morning/early afternoon. with good model consensus that a significant dry slot arrives during the afternoon. The 00Z/30 NAM is the slowest with the dry slot moving in from the W, while the GFS (Global Forecast System) is the fastest. This will be key into how much dry air mixes in and will affect the winds Sat afternoon. Current forecast will follow the middle of the consensus. Instability increases by afternoon and there may be enough lingering moisture for a few thunderstorms before the showers end near the coast (esp SE VA/NE NC). Quantitative Precipitation Forecast will be limited with most locations receiving ~0.10" or less. Overall though, the bigger concern is the continued signal that deep mixing will develop in the afternoon as a dry slot as a strong LLJ moves over the region. With much drier air filtering in behind the pre- frontal trough, dewpoints likely rapidly fall late Saturday afternoon/evening with wind gusts to 40-50mph out of the WSW and then W. Wind advisories are likely Saturday and there are some indications that at least a portion of the area may need warnings. Still a little early for any High Wind Watches, but these may be considered later today. Warm Saturday with high temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 (low to mid 70s Eastern Shore). Remaining breezy Sat night (especially near the coast), with the much cooler/drier air moving in from the NW. Lows Sunam generally in the upper 30s-mid 40s.
Long Term - Sunday Through Wednesday
As of 355am EDT Thursday... Much cooler to begin the period on Sunday (though seasonable), with highs ranging from the highs in the mid 50s-60F at the coast and lower- mid 60s inland. NW winds will be breezy in the morning/early afternoon near the coast, with diminishing winds in the afternoon. Dew pts drop into the 20s for most of the area and skies will be mainly sunny. Cool Sunday night with the surface high centered along the coast in SE VA/NE NC, allowing for lows from the mid 30s to low 40s area-wide. For Mon-Wed, yet another deep upper trough develops over the western CONUS, allowing ridging aloft to amplify E of the Rockies, gradually shifting to the east coast by Tue-Wed. With the surface high moving offshore on Monday and the low- level flow becomes SSW with temperatures warming into the lower- mid 70s (60s to near 70F on the eastern shore). The latest 00Z/30 GFS has shifted it's precipitation for Tuesday farther north and is now in better agreement w/ the consensus. As such, expect partly-mostly sunny skies and a continuation of the warming trend with highs well into the 70s to near 80F. The warming trend continues on Wednesday as strong low pressure is forecast to rapidly deepen as it tracks from the Plains to NW Great Lakes. While a shower or two cannot be ruled out in our area, forecast highs are into the lower 80s for most areas (w/ lower- mid 70s on the eastern shore). There will also be a noticeable increase in humidity by the middle of next week as dew pts rise into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
As of 350am EDT Thursday... A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic Ocean coastal waters north to the NC/VA border. A cold front is moving south along the coast. Winds will abrupartly become N ~20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt early this morning. Winds quickly diminish late Thursday morning and Thursday afternoon as a center of high pressure moves over the area.
A strong storm system is forecasted to impact the area Friday and Saturday. SW winds are expected to increase beginning on Friday afternoon. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are likely by Friday and continuing into Friday night. The SW winds will continue to increase Friday night into Saturday. Gale conditions are likely to begin by early Saturday morning and continue into Saturday evening. Wind gusts between 30 kt and 40 kt are likely. Brief gusts up to 45 kt are possible Saturday afternoon, especially near the shore. Winds will become NW behind a cold front that will move off the coast late Saturday. Winds remain gusty behind the front, with continued Gale conditions likely Saturday night through Sunday morning. Seas are expected to climb to 5 to 9 ft and waves 4 to 5 ft in the Bay on Saturday.
Winds diminish Sunday, eventually falling below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria by Sunday afternoon as high pressure builds back into the region. Sub- SCA (Small Craft Advisory) marine conditions expected late Sunday through Monday before another system potentially approaches the region by midweek.
As of 410am EDT Thursday... Very dry this afternoon (min RH 20-30% along and N/NE of I-64). However, light winds will preclude any fire WX concerns. Strong winds are are expected to develop Saturday as a cold front moves across the region. The latest forecast indicates min RH values of 25-30% along with westerly wind gusts of 40-50 mph over the Piedmont, with 30-35% into the I-85/I-95 corridor (with similar winds). Higher min RH values farther SE.
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 1pm EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634-638-654-656. Small Craft Advisory until 1pm EDT this afternoon for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 10am EDT this morning for ANZ650- 652.