Cape Charles Light to Currituck Beach Light Offshore Forecast
| Today...Sw Winds 20 To 30 Kt, Becoming N 30 To 40 Kt. Seas 8 To 13 Ft. Numerous Showers And Scattered Tstms. Areas Of Fog With Vsby 1 Nm Or Less. |
| Tonight...N Winds 30 To 40 Kt, Diminishing To 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 8 To 14 Ft. |
| Fri...N Winds Diminishing To 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming S 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. |
| Fri Night...W To Sw Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 7 Ft. |
| Sat...W To Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming N 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 6 Ft. |
| Sat Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Sun...E To Se Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 9 Ft. |
| Sun Night...Se Winds 20 To 30 Kt, Becoming S. Seas 6 To 11 Ft. |
| Mon...S Winds 30 To 40 Kt. Seas 9 To 15 Ft. |
| Mon Night...S To Sw Winds 30 To 40 Kt, Becoming W To Nw 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 9 To 16 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 442am EDT Thu Mar 12 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated discussion. It is looking increasingly likely that we will see the rain change to snow across central/eastern VA and the MD Eastern Shore for an hour or two during the afternoon. While no impacts are expected, a dusting on grassy surfaces is possible. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong cold front crosses the area between 6am and noon today. Temperatures will fall into the mid 30s to lower 40s by the afternoon. There is a very good chance of rain, along with a low-end potential for some stronger storms across NE NC between 9am and noon today. The rain may change to snow for an hour or two this afternoon across central/eastern VA and the MD Eastern Shore. A dusting of snow is possible on grassy surfaces. 2) Cooler temperatures and dry weather return to end the week. Another storm system brings a chance for showers and thunderstorms to the area on Monday. As of 220am EDT Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front crosses the area between 6am and noon today. Temperatures will fall into the mid 30s to lower 40s by the afternoon. There is a very good chance of rain, along with a low-end potential for some stronger storms across NE NC between 9am and noon today. The rain may change to snow for an hour or two this afternoon across central/eastern VA and the MD Eastern Shore. A dusting of snow is possible on grassy surfaces. A southern stream low pressure system currently over the Deep South tracks ENE through the Carolinas today, before moving offshore by this evening. Meanwhile, a strong cold front just to our north will quickly cross the area from NNW-SSE between 6am and noon. It is warm with lower-mid 70s at this hour/breezy SSW winds. Temperatures will likely warm a couple degrees across SE VA/NE NC later this morning before the cold front moves through. The front should cross central/northern zones by 8-9 AM, allowing temps to fall into the 40s by noon. While the vast majority of the precipitation is forecast to fall behind the front, a line of showers will likely accompany the front as it crosses the area. Some pre-frontal destabilization (MLCAPE ~1000 J/kg) is likely across extreme SE VA and especially NE NC. While most areas will see gusts to 30-40 mph as the front moves through, an isolated strong storm producing 45-60 mph wind gusts can't completely be ruled out, though confidence in this is low. The best chance of severe weather is in NE NC near the Albemarle Sound where the FROPA is latest. Temps are expected to drop from around 70F to the 40s very quickly following the FROPA, and will continue to fall into the mid 30s-lower 40s by the afternoon. Some areas will see a very impressive 24 hour temperature change on the order of 50 degrees from Wednesday afternoon to today! A period of rain is likely behind the front between late morning and early evening, with widespread amounts of 0.25-0.75" likely. It is looking increasingly likely that we will see the rain change to snow across central/eastern VA and perhaps the eastern shore for an hour or two during the afternoon. While falling snow appears likely, it will be very hard for anything to accumulate unless we see consistent moderate to heavy snow for a couple of hours. This is quite unlikely attm. However, up to 1" is not out of the question if we see solid 1/4SM VSBY heavy snow for a couple of hours. And will also note that the positive snow depth change in several of the models is ~20% of the forecast snow totals using the Kuchera snow ratios given the warm ground/surface temps not dropping below 33-34F. Will advertise up to 0.1-0.3" of accums to account for the possibility of a dusting on the grass (which appears more likely). Regardless of accumulation, it is very rare to see snow on the exact same day with highs in the 70s (the high in RIC will technically be ~76F). KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler temperatures and dry weather return to end the week. Another storm system brings a chance for showers and thunderstorms to the area on Monday. Looking through the extended, seasonably cooler and dry weather returns Friday, with highs dropping back into the 50s despite plentiful sunshine. Milder conditions with temps approaching 70F are forecasted by the weekend as transient high pressure slides over, also supporting continued mainly dry wx. Strong low pressure (potentially sub-980mb) tracks from the Midwest to Ontario/Quebec on Monday/Monday night. That system will drag a cold front through the area Monday night. Ahead of the front, warm and somewhat humid weather is expected on Monday with highs in the 70s and dew pts potentially in the lower-mid 60s. A band of showers, with a few embedded thunderstorms. will cross the area from Monday-Monday evening. There is a chance for a few stronger storms as well (with damaging winds being the main threat). More specifics to come as we get closer. Marine As of 210am EDT Thursday... - Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay, tidal rivers, and northern coastal waters into early evening, and go into effect for the Currituck Sound later this morning. - Gale Warnings go into effect mid morning for the Ocean from Cape Charles to Currituck Beach Light NC, and for the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay. Surface analysis shows strong low pressure centered north of NY with a sharp cold front extending to the SW along the Appalachians. The pressure gradient is tightening early this morning with SW winds mainly 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Some elevated sensors in the Ches Bay and offshore have observed gusts around 30 kt which shows that cool waters are impeding deeper mixing and downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft. 00z guidance continues to show the strong cold front crossing the waters from around sunrise in the north and clearing the southern waters by late morning. Winds quickly turn NW/NNW behind the boundary. Impressive pressure rises (9-12mb in 6 hours) will immediately follow the cold front and winds could gust 35-40 kt as the boundary comes through. It still appears that the best chance for prolonged gusts of this magnitude will be focused across the southern third of the area from mid to late morning through mid to late afternoon. This includes the mouth of the bay and Atlantic coastal waters south of Cape Charles Light. Elsewhere, the period of post-frontal 30-40 kt gusts will be shorter and will be handled with short-fuse SMWs as needed (this has been mentioned in the MWW). The gradient begins to relax this evening and especially during the overnight hours. Seas will build to 4-6 ft far N and 3-4 ft S in the pre-frontal SW flow early this morning. Seas will average 4-5 ft N, and will build to 5-7 ft S (where the strongest winds will occur). Waves in the Chesapeake Bay increase to 2-4 ft ahead of the front and reach to 3-5 ft through much of the day during the stronger NNW winds. Another system moves by well to the north on Friday with potential for another period of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions (especially for the northern half of the area), as increasing S to SW winds develop. More tranquil marine conditions are expected Saturday into the first half of Sunday before the next strong system approaches the region late Sunday into Monday. Climate As of 220am EDT Thursday... Record highs were set at ORF (88F), RIC (89F), SBY (86F), and ECG (86F) yesterday. Record high mins were also set at RIC (58F), SBY (55F), and Norfolk (62F). NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EDT this evening for ANZ630>632-635>638-650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 10am this morning to 7pm EDT this evening for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 10am EDT this morning for ANZ634. Gale Warning from 10am this morning to 4pm EDT this afternoon for ANZ634. Gale Warning from 10am this morning to 7pm EDT this evening for ANZ656-658. |
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