Cape Charles Light to Currituck Beach Light Offshore Forecast
| Tonight...S To Sw Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming W To Sw, Then, Becoming W 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 6 Ft. Showers, Tstms. |
| Thu...Sw Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 6 Ft. Tstms And Scattered Showers. |
| Thu Night...W To Sw Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 6 Ft. Showers And Tstms. |
| Fri...W Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 7 Ft. Scattered Showers And Tstms. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming W. Seas 4 To 7 Ft. |
| Sat...W Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming W To Nw 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 8 Ft. |
| Sat Night...Ne Winds Less Than 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 6 Ft. |
| Sun...E To Ne Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 5 To 9 Ft. |
| Sun Night...E Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 5 To 9 Ft. |
| Mon...E Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 7 Ft. |
| Mon Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 329pm EDT Wednesday July 6 2022 Synopsis A frontal boundary will remain over the region through late this week. There will be daily chances for showers and thunderstorms into the weekend. Near Term - Until 6am Thursday Morning As of 245pm EDT Wednesday... Latest weather analysis reveals a weak, wavy cold front, which extends east from NE MO/S IL into S PA/N NJ. Locally, a pre- frontal surface trough lingers from the Chesapeake Bay south into the eastern Carolinas. Myriad weak outflow boundaries from last night's/early this morning's convection are lingering across southern VA into north central NC. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through early evening from the RIC Metro area south and east, including the Hampton Roads/Tidewater area into northeast North Carolina. High temperatures have been held back slightly by lingering debris clouds from MCS upstream. Nonetheless, those lower to middle 90s combined with lingering dewpoints in the lower and middle 70s, have resulted in head indices topping out around 105. Scattered showers and storms have begun to re-fire inland this afternoon, mainly across E WV and W VA and over the Mason-Dixon line from W MD eastward. This activity has been aided by arriving outflow boundaries from decaying MCS activity over the mountains and to the north over SE PA. No shortage of foci exist this afternoon, between the surface trough, weak seabreeze boundaries, and the previously referenced outflow boundaries from both earlier this morning and last night. Given very warm to hot conditions and resultant instability (MLCAPE ~1000 J/Kg) and numerous focus areas, just about any portion of the area could see a stronger storm or two, hence the scattered wording in the digital forecast. We remain a degree or two from convective temperatures over most of the area, and thus expect storms will increase a bit more in coverage after 20z/4p. Multi-cell clusters remain the expected storm mode, with heavy rain and damaging winds as the main threats. PW values (Precipitable Water values) in the 1.6-1.8" range at this hour...rising to ~1.75-2" by this evening, along with typically slow steering flow, do portend locally heavy rainfall (and frequent lightning) as the main threat(s). Storm Prediction Center has updated to include all but our eastern shore in the Day 1 Slight Risk area, with the Marginal Risk area now including the MD eastern shore zones. Evening convection likely to wane/dissipate by midnight tonight. Otw, partly to mostly cloudy and muggy overnight w/ lows in the 70s. Short Term - 6am Thursday Morning Through Saturday As of 245pm EDT Wednesday... Overall pattern (WNW flow aloft and weak/wavy surface frontal boundary to the north) remains in place through Fri. A bit more widespread coverage of showers and storms is expected tomorrow with yet another MCS/MCV along with a larger spoke of shortwave energy dropping NW to SE across the area. Will go with 40-60% PoP in the afternoon and evening on Thursday, with greatest coverage over inland sections. Partly sunny-mostly cloudy both days. Low-level thicknesses drop off slightly. This along with remnant debris cloudiness from additional decaying MCS activity upstream should make for highs a few degrees cooler than today. However, similar or even higher dewpoints will leave heat indices again topping out ~100F. ISO-SCT strong-severe thunderstorms are once again possible on Friday, as the front approaches from the north. The best chance of convective activity remains during the later afternoon/evening, with best chances central and southwest zones. Damaging winds/locally heavy rainfall the main threats. Front drops across the area Fri afternoon and night. Cooler and becoming less humid across the northern half of the area into Saturday. Front likely hangs up briefly across the area once again on Saturday, with areal coverage of showers and storms remaining highest south of the front. have maintained a high chance to likely Probability of Precipitation south of US-460 into NE NC. Highs in the low to mid 80s north, to around 90 south. Long Term - Saturday Night Through Wednesday As of 240pm EDT Wednesday... Some uncertainty remains regarding where the cold front hangs up and for how long, but increasingly confident the front will make it to NC by Sunday morning. As such, have 50-60% Probability of Precipitation for NE NC and a small section of VA near the border, chance Probability of Precipitation elsewhere, for the first half of Saturday night. Went a bit lower than NBM for Sunday since the front will probably be far enough south to limit precipitation in the local area. Maintained schc-chance Probability of Precipitation through the day Sunday, with the higher likelihood being in the NC counties. High pressure and mostly sunny skies take over Monday and most of the day Tuesday. NW flow aloft finally starts to break down mid-late week as a trough starts digging in over the eastern portion of the CONUS. Schance of showers for W and N of Richmond Tuesday evening-night in association with a weak front approaching the area. Temperature-wise, Sunday and Monday will give us a "break" from the hot temperatures with highs in the low 80s Sunday and Mid-80s Monday. Upper 80s-low 90s return starting Tuesday. Lows in the upper 60s Sunday morning, mid-60s Monday and Tuesday. Marine As of 330pm EDT Wednesday... Low pressure off the NE coast continues to move NE through tonight. The associated cold front stalls N of the local waters before slowly dropping S over the FA late Thurs into Fri. S of the front, a nearly stationary trough remains near the coast (just inland) this afternoon through tomorrow with a surface low possibly riding the front Thurs. Therefore, afternoon/evening storms will be possible each day from this afternoon through Fri evening with strong winds and frequent lightning possible with any storms. Winds are generally S/SE 5-10 kt, increasing to 10-15 kt later this afternoon, becoming S this evening, and then becoming SW 5-10 kt after midnight. Winds remain light and variable Thurs, switching from SW in the morning to S/SE in the early afternoon and E/SE in the late afternoon. Winds become N behind the cold front Thurs night, but the front washes out and winds become E/SE by late Fri afternoon. Winds remain sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) through Sat. The pressure gradient increases Sat night-Sunday between low pressure moving NE off the coast and high pressure building in from the NW. NE winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt possible over the S coastal waters while seas build to 4-5 ft during this time. Therefore, SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) may be needed. Waves and seas of 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft respectfully linger through Sat before building Sat night into Sun. There will be a low rip risk Thurs due mainly to low seas of only around 2 ft. However, periods of 7-9 seconds and a more onshore component to the northern beaches will allow for some localized rip current risk. On Fri, seas will be a little higher (2-3 ft) for the northern beaches allowing for a moderate rip risk. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC... Heat Advisory until 7pm EDT this evening for NCZ012>017- 030>032-102. VA... Heat Advisory until 7pm EDT this evening for VAZ079>083- 087>090-092-093-095>098-513>516-523>525. Marine None. |
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