Cape Charles Light to Currituck Beach Light Offshore Forecast
| Tonight...N To Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W To Sw. Seas 5 To 9 Ft. |
| Fri...W Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 6 Ft. |
| Fri Night...N To Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming N To Ne. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. |
| Sat...Ne Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Chance Of Showers. |
| Sat Night...N To Ne Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 7 To 11 Ft. |
| Sun...N Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 6 To 11 Ft. |
| Sun Night...N Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 6 To 10 Ft. |
| Mon...N Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming Variable Less Than 5 Kt. Seas 4 To 7 Ft. |
| Mon Night...S Winds Less Than 10 Kt, Becoming W To Sw. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Tue...W Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming W To Sw 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Tue Night...S Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1231am EST Fri Jan 2 2026 Synopsis Slightly milder weather returns for Friday ahead of a low pressure system that will pass south of the area. Widespread rain is likely for southern Virginia and northeast North Carolina later Saturday with some wet snow possible north of Richmond. Dry and seasonably cool weather returns Sunday and Monday, followed by a warming trend Tuesday through most of next week. Near Term - Until 6am This Morning As of 640pm EST Thursday... Key Messages: - A weak system may bring a very light accumulation of snow to the MD Eastern Shore late tonight into early Friday morning. With temperatures in the 20s, snow could quickly stick to area roadways if it does occur. However, confidence in the snow remains low at this time. A quick-moving mid-level shortwave slides through in the NW flow aloft tonight. The main impact from this disturbance will be increased mid-level cloud cover, especially for northern portions of our forecast area. However, there could be just enough ascent and mid-level moisture for a brief period of flurries or light snow on the MD Eastern Shore in the 2-6am timeframe. Have kept the 20% chance for snow from the previous forecasts, but have confined this mention to Dorchester, Wicomico, and Worcester counties in MD. A light coating of snow is possible (including on roads) given surface temps below freezing, but don't expect any major impacts at this time. Temps likely fall fast this evening into the 20s before leveling off some late tonight given the increased cloud cover. A few locations on the MD Eastern Shore and rural portions of the NW Piedmont could dip into the upper teens. .SHORT TERM /6am THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 225pm EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Dry and slightly milder Friday. - A disturbance brings a chance for widespread rain Saturday afternoon and evening. Some wet snow could also mix in later Saturday along and north of I-64, but little to no accumulation is expected at this time. Any light snow ends by 7am Friday, with dry weather expected the rest of the day. Temperatures moderate a bit as the trough over the NE CONUS flattens a bit, allowing upper heigheights to rise some. However, a weak backdoor boundary will again keep the cooler temps for those those on the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore with temps stuck in the low- mid 40s. Milder across southern VA and NE NC where temps should rise into the 50s. Cold again Friday night with lows in the 20s N to 30s S. Lows Fri night will likely occur earlier in the night as clouds increase late ahead of an approaching southern stream system. The Saturday forecast remains of lower confidence. A wave of low pressure is expected to ride ENE through the Deep South and Carolinas along a remnant frontal boundary, with widespread rain likely for southern VA and NE NC Saturday afternoon and evening. The northern extent of the precipitation field (which can be traced to trough amplification) is where model guidance begins to diverge. The 12z global model guidance (and their ensembles) are a bit less suppressed than the 00z runs. However, most of the higher-res guidance (NAM/RAP/HRRR) confines precipitation to far southern VA and NC. All in all, continue to monitor for some wintry precipitation (likely as a rain/snow mix) on the northern edge of the precipitation field. The best chance of this would be from the RIC Metro northward (including the eastern shore), though impacts appear unlikely attm as surface temps will likely be just above freezing even if it does snow. As alluded to before, uncertainty is high given the marginal thermodynamics and model/ensemble inconsistency. Ensemble probs from the EPS for 1" of snow at a 10:1 ratio have again increased to 20-30%. However, the 12z GEFS now does have a sliver of 10-20% probs from Louisa/Fluvanna through the Northern Neck. We will continue to monitor but it does not look like a significant event. Highs for Saturday currently range from the upper 30s-mid 40s, but could be lower if there is widespread clouds and precip. Any lingering precipitation ends from west to east Saturday night. Lows fall into the mid 20s-mid 30s but temps don't get too cold until after the precip ends. High pressure and mostly sunny/dry/seasonable conditions return for Sunday with highs in the 40s areawide. Long Term - Sunday Night Through Thursday As of 225pm EST Thursday... Key Message: - Sensible and mainly dry early January weather returns early next week. A warming trend begins Tuesday and continues through most of the week. Cool/dry weather prevails on Monday with highs again in the 40s. A moderating trend is expected as we head toward the middle of next week as the high moves offshore, upper heigheights start to rise, and the flow aloft flattens out some. Highs quickly moderate into the 50s Tuesday and we could potentially see highs at or above 60F by next Wednesday. The chance for rain is overall quite low through the extended period, but a progressive system could bring a chance for light precipitation next Wednesday or Thursday. Marine As of 355pm EST Thursday... Key Messages: - More benign marine conditions return late tonight through Saturday as high pressure builds over the local waters. - A weak frontal boundary returns north as a warm front late tonight and Friday, then pushes back south of the region over the weekend. - Another round of Small Crafts are possible late Saturday into Monday. Latest weather analysis shows weak low pressure sliding across the Gulf of Maine toward Atlantic Canada. The associated cold front pushed through the region earlier this afternoon and is just south of the local area as of this writing. With the gradient quickly slackening and with minimal Cold Air Advection post-frontal, the Small Craft Advisories the were in effect have been allowed to expire on time. The SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for the coastal waters north of Chincoteague remains in effect into this evening, with numerous reports of gusts to ~25 kt nearshore over the northern waters. Otherwise, winds and seas gradually diminish late this afternoon and tonight, as high pressure starts to rebuild over the area. Winds will drop of to 5 to 10 kt and seas will be around 1 ft across the bay and 2-3 ft across the ocean. These benign marine conditions will continue through Friday and into Saturday afternoon. The previously referenced front lifts back north across the central and southern waters late tonight and Friday, in response to a developing southern stream system. This will veer winds from SSE to W-SW late tonight and Friday <10-12 kt. A few snow showers will be possible far northern waters, as a weak clipper low tracks quickly east along the retreating boundary from central VA over to the Delmarva Friday morning. Winds become NNW all zones tomorrow afternoon and evening ~10 kt, as the front gets shunted back south of the local waters Friday evening into Saturday afternoon. The next chance of elevated marine conditions come late Saturday into early Monday. Latest guidance continues to show another weak and fast moving southern stream system developing along the boundary to the south, passing along/offshore of the Carolina coast Saturday night into early Sunday. This system could bring SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions across our central and southern, likely more brief and marginal the farther north you go. Local wind probs have diminished substantially over the northern half of our waters, including much of the bay and northern waters. With the 12z/1 cycle, there is no higher than a 20% probability of winds => 18kt in the middle and upper bay and 30% or less of gusts greater than 25kt across our coastal waters north of Cape Charles. Better chances for SCA (Small Craft Advisory) in the mouth of the Bay, the Currituck Sound and the Atlantic coastal waters south of Cape Charles. Seas increase across the southern waters in building E-SE wind waves, with 5-7 ft seas are possible Sunday into Sunday evening. Winds back to the NNW Sunday night and Monday, as high pressure builds to the NW, then slides offshore Monday night into Tuesday. This will veer winds around to the SSW late Monday through midweek aob 15 kt, with improving boating conditions for the middle of next week. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine None. |
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