Cape Charles Light to Currituck Beach Light Offshore Forecast
| Tonight...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Variable. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Scattered Showers And Tstms. |
| Sat...Se Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming S 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Sat Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Sun...W To Sw Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Sun Night...W To Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W To Nw. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Mon...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Mon Night...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming Ne 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 8 Ft. |
| Tue...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 5 To 9 Ft. |
| Tue Night...N To Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft. |
| Wed...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming E 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft, Subsiding To 3 To 5 Ft. |
| Wed Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 733pm EDT Fri September 11 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... WPC has expanded the Day 2 Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall for areas along I-95 Saturday-Saturday Night to now include the NW piedmont. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Unsettled and humid through Sunday as a frontal boundary lingers near the region, bringing scattered to numerous showers, thunderstorms, and localized heavy rain. 2) Dry with seasonable temperatures early next week, with temperatures warming above normal by midweek as an upper ridge builds back into the region. As of 200pm EDT Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled and humid through Sunday as a frontal boundary lingers near the region, bringing scattered to numerous showers, thunderstorms, and localized heavy rain. A cold front has slowly dropped southward across the forecast area today, and extends across southern VA and is slightly buckled across NE NC. Satellite imagery is highlighting increasing cloud cover across the northern half of the area and partly cloudy to mostly clear skies across southern VA and NE NC. There is a relatively sharp temperature gradient today due to the aforementioned cloud cover. Current highs are in the lower 90 to spotty mid 90s (NE NC) across the south, with northern areas measuring temperatures in the upper 70s (mainly Eastern Shore) to the low-mid 80s. Storm Prediction Center has maintained the Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for areas along and south of I-64 (excluding the coast) as the boundary slowly moves southward across the area this evening into tonight. The front will be the focal point of the convection, and local radar is already detecting some development across south-central VA, which are now right on the cusp of Lunenburg and Mecklenburg counties. Storm Prediction Center mesoanalysis is depicting good instability from generally the Tri- Cities area and south, which is the best environment for any severe is depicted by the Marginal Risk. Shear is not overly impressive, but with steep low level lapse rates, isolated wet microbursts cannot be ruled out this afternoon and this evening. The front continues to sink south tonight, with most of the showers/storms ending overnight. There continues to be a good signal for low stratus and possible some fog across the piedmont overnight. Have maintained mention of fog in these areas, though exactly how far east this potential fog creeps is still somewhat uncertain. Humid with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s south, with somewhat drier air to the north where lows drop into the mid 60s. Widespread precipitation chances peak Saturday afternoon/night, as the stalled boundary lifts back north as a warm front, along with a more pronounced mid-level shortwave disturbances push across the area. Forecast soundings show high precipitable water values, modest instability (skinny CAPE profile), and weak steering flow, which should yield efficient warm rainfall processes and additional localized hydro concerns (supported by an area-wide WPC ERO Marginal Risk and a localized upgrade to Slight for portions of the I-95 corridor, including metro RIC. Despite the increasing confidence that localized flooding is possible somewhere in our forecast area, these still remains uncertainty in the exact locations, so have decided to not go with a Flood Watch for Saturday/Saturday night at this time. The HREF, which typically provides a good signal for areas where the heaviest rainfall/highest amounts, is not honing in on any specific area at this time, but will likely start to once we get closer to the event on Saturday evening/night. Considerable cloud cover will keep a lid on Saturday highs to the low to mid 80s N, but highs reach into the upper 80s SE. There may even be some weak CAD, potentially keeping far NW zones even cooler (but still very humid). The boundary washes out Sunday, leading to noticeably lower convective coverage for the NW 1/2 of the area, but Probability of Precipitation remain high chance to likely for the SE. KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry with seasonable temperatures early next week, with temperatures warming above normal by midweek as an upper ridge builds back into the region. The upper level flow becomes NW on Monday as a strong upper level trough dives SE from the Great Lakes and pushes off the NE and mid- Atlantic coast Monday night, with an upper level ridge slowly expanding NE from the lower MS Valley. This looks strong enough to drive the surface cold front south of the CWA (County Warning Area) Monday, and bring significantly lower dew pts more typical of September. As high pressure builds in behind the front, we are forecasting mostly sunny skies with highs in the 80s Monday. A pleasant night Monday night/Tueam is on tap, with lows mostly in the low-mid 60s and some 50s possible across the piedmont and interior MD eastern shore due to possible radiational cooling. Diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances gradually tick back up mid-to-late week as heat and moisture start to return as the upper level ridge expands E-NE to the TN Valley and central/southern Appalachians. Temperatures are also forecast to climb back to slightly above normal for mid-September, with highs generally in the mid-upper 80s and lows mid-late week. Overnight lows will be more reflective of the time of year, dropping into the 60s each night. Marine As of 230pm EDT Friday... Key Messages: - A period of generally benign marine conditions is favored from this weekend through Monday morning. - Low-end SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) are possible with NE winds behind a front late Monday- Monday night. A weak cold front has pushed through the area and is located just south of local waters this afternoon. Winds have turned to the NNE and latest obs show breezy conditions near 15kt sustained and a few gusts close to 20kt. Seas are around 2ft and waves in the bay/rivers are 1-2ft. The flow becomes E then SE tonight into Saturday, with winds generally 10-15 kt (highest north) through Saturday night as the front moves back north as a warm front. Onshore flow should be able to help seas build to 3ft tomorrow and perhaps even close to 4ft off the MD coast. Winds become S-SW at ~10 kt on Sunday. Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) marine conditions are favored through early Monday. Another front is expected to cross the marine area on Monday, with a wind shift to the NE following the passage. This front appears to be a bit stronger, with some of the 12z models showing the potential for low- end SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions behind the front late Monday. Winds subside and shift to the east Tue. Local wind probs for sustained 18 kt winds have increased again and show widespread ~50% probs Monday afternoon through late Monday night and even a period of close to 90% near the Mouth of the Bay. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level seas are possible (mainly south) by late Monday-Monday night as winds become NE. The rip current risk will remain low today, with the northern beaches bumping up to moderate on Saturday as flow becomes onshore. A low rip current risk returns to all beaches on Sunday. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine None. |
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