Cape Charles Light to Currituck Beach Light Offshore Forecast
| Tonight...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Sun...Sw Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 6 Ft. |
| Sun Night...Sw Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 9 Ft. |
| Mon...W To Sw Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 9 Ft. |
| Mon Night...Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt, Becoming N 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 7 Ft. |
| Tue...W To Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 6 Ft. |
| Tue Night...Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. |
| Wed...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 8 Ft. |
| Wed Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 7 Ft. |
| Thu...N To Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming N 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 7 Ft. |
| Thu Night...N Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 305am EDT Sunday Oct 13 2024 Synopsis High pressure will slide farther out to sea during today, as low pressure moves across the Ohio Valley and into Pennsylvania. Warm and dry conditions will prevail today well in advance of an approaching cold front. That strong, but mainly dry cold front will cross the region late tonight into Monday afternoon. Below normal temperatures are expected through the mid to late portion of next week. Near Term - Until 6am This Morning As of 255pm EDT Saturday... Key Message: - Dry and a little milder overnight than the past few nights. The latest weather analysis indicates a broad WNW flow aloft over the local area, with surface high pressure centered across the deep south. A frontal boundary is nearly stationary, aligned W to E from central IL to PA/NJ. A pleasant dry afternoon prevails with a light W-SW wind and a clear sky. Temperatures are now mainly in the mid 70s to around 80F over the FA. The surface high is forecast to slowly weaken while pushing off the SE coast tonight, as low pressure tracks ENE from central/northern IL towards northern OH by Sunday morning. Locally, clear skies will continue, with a light SW wind keeping temperatures a few degrees warmer than the past 2 nights. Lows will range from the upper 40s to low-mid 50s (generally coolest over interior southern VA/NE NC and warmest near the coast). .SHORT TERM /6am THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300pm EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Breezy and warm Sunday with aftn/evening gusts to 20-30 mph expected. - A cold front crosses the area on Monday, but little to no precipitation is expected. Turning rather cool Tuesday with more clouds but little chance for measurable rainfall. High pressure will be well offshore of the SE coast on Sunday, as as a potent shortwave trough dives SE from the Canadian Prairies to the Great Lakes. A cold front will approach the area on Sun, but surface low pressure will remain well off to our N through the day, tracking from NE OH to eastern PA/NW NJ by late aftn/evening. The pressure gradient really tightens up as this occurs, and with very warm temperatures and good mixing, a breezy to windy afternoon is expected with gusts of 25-30 mph likely. The airmass in the lee of the Appalachians remains very dry so any showers/storms approaching from the N and W look to dry up before reaching the CWA (County Warning Area) in the evening. High Sunday should reach into the lower 80s for most of the region under a mainly sunny sky (with some increase in high clouds late). The airmass remains mixed Sunday night, so lows will be much warmer, generally in the 60-65F range for most areas (in the 50s across the NW). Upper troughing amplifies to our north Sunday night and Mon, as surface low pressure deepens near the Canadian Maritimes on Mon. This feature will drag the cold front through the area. With the front crossing the area, breezy conditions will continue (gusts to 20-30 mph likely during the day), as winds turn to the WNW by later Monday morning in most areas (by afternoon in the SE). This is a bit faster than the past few runs so the sky will become partly-mostly sunny aside and Probability of Precipitation will be ~10% or less except along the coast of the eastern shore in the morning where slight chance Probability of Precipitation will be maintained. Temps rise into the mid/upper 60s NW to the mid/upper 70s far SE by early afternoon before falling into the upper 50s or 60s by early evening. Temps will fall into the 40s to near 50 Monday night, as winds slowly diminish. The core of the upper low becomes cutoff over Quebec on Tuesday, with a large scale shortwave forecast to drop south from the midwest to the TN Valley and Carolinas by aftn/evening. It will likely start off partly/mostly sunny, but with a significant increase in clouds by late morning/afternoon with very cold air aloft. Soundings generally show a saturated layer from ~800mb to near 500mb so would anticipate mostly cloudy skies and perhaps a few sprinkles or a light shower late in the day. Quite cool with highs only in the upper 50s NW to lower 60s SE. Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Saturday As of 315pm EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Dry but with below normal temperatures expected Wednesday- Thursday, with a trend back to near normal into next weekend. - Patchy frost will be possible over the piedmont Tuesday night/Wed morning, with a better chance for areas of frost and near freezing temperatures across much of the area away from the immediate coast Wednesday night/early Thursday. A deep upper trough (500mb height anomalies of -2 to -3 sigma) will still be in place from Atlantic Canada SW into the SE CONUS through Wednesday night, gradually shifting east offshore by Thursday. At the sfc, a strong area of high pressure (>1030 mb), is forecast to drop south from the upper midwest Tuesday night, becoming centered across the OH/TN Valley on Wednesday, before drifting east into the local area Wednesday night into Thursday. This setup will continue to bring well below normal temperatures to the FA, with lows Tuesday night/Wednesday morning in the mid 30s to around 40F along and W of I-95, and generally in the 40s to the east. Highs Wednesday only rise into the upper 50s to lower 60s. There should be more sunshine compared to Tuesday, though the NE 1/2 of the CWA will tend to see SCT-BKN afternoon clouds. The coolest night will likely be Wednesday night/Thursday as the surface high becomes more favorably located near the area, with frost likely for at least the I-95 corridor and pts W, and at least possible for interior sections of SE VA/NE NC. Given the strength of the surface high, have gone with the cooler edge of guidance, forecasting mins into the low- mid 30s for rural areas along and W of the I-95 corridor, with mid/upper 30s to around 40F for the east (and locally in the mid to upper 40s at the immediate coast). Continued dry and cool Thursday with highs into the lower 60s for most under a sunny sky and light winds. Another night potentially seeing at least patchy frost can be expected Thursday night/early Friday as the latest model runs including the ensembles and NBM are slower to push the surface high off the coast. Current forecast is for lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Temperatures warm back closer to normal Fri- Sat with highs into the mid/upper 60s to lower 70s and lows in the 40s Fri night. Marine As of 305am EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Relatively benign boating conditions early this morning with SW winds around 10 kt. - An extended period of Small Craft Advisories are in effect starting this afternoon. The first of two strong cold frontal passages move through the region late tonight into Monday. A second cold front then crosses the area Tuesday night. Latest analysis reveals 1020+mb surface high pressure in place just offshore of the coastal Carolinas. A quasi-stationary front remains draped just north of the local waters from the Delmarva back into central PA and the eastern Great Lakes. Latest obs reflect SW flow winds across the waters averaging 10-15 kt. Latest buoy reports showing seas lingering around 2 ft, with waves 1 ft or less in the bay, eastern VA rivers and the Currituck sound. Low pressure crossing from the Ohio valley into the northeast will deepen later this morning through this afternoon, and will drag a strong cold front toward the area. This will in turn tighten the surface pressure gradient, allowing winds to gradually increase later this morning into the afternoon. Expect we'll see some W-SW gusts to ~20 kt in the rivers and bay later this morning, with winds increasing further to 15-20 kt this afternoon. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) still goes into effect this afternoon for all waters, running through Monday. The period of strongest winds this evening occur in SW winds just ahead of the frontal passage, and Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all marine zones. SSW winds of 20-25 kt are expected by Sunday evening into early Monday as W-SW h85 LLJ lifts into the area. The surface low to the north is forecast to slowly deepen as it exits into New England tonight. 00z CAMs continue to highlight Gale Force gust potential in a relatively narrow time window between 8p-midnight, mainly over the northern coastal waters and northern Ches Bay. In-house wind probs have increased to 50-70%, with best chances well offshore near 20NM given SW flow. Due to the short-fused, convective nature of these gusts, still believe that Special Marine Warnings are the best way to handle any short-lived gusts in excess of 34 kt rather than Gale headlines. The front crosses the area late tonight, near or just after sunrise Monday, with winds shifting to the W and then NW post- frontal. Winds remain elevated in the 15-25 kt range through most of Monday in the post-frontal/cold advection regime, with SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) remaining in effect through this period. Winds finally look slacken to sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels Tuesday. However, another front crosses the waters Tuesday night, with a reinforcing shot of Cold Air Advection likely prompting another round of SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) Tuesday night into Wednesday. Cool high pressure then builds in for the mid-late week period, with more benign marine conditions prevailing. In terms of waves/seas, Building easterly swells (5-6 second periods) and SSW wind wave ramp seas up to 4-6 ft tonight through Monday, with some potential short period wind waves ramping seas up to 6-7 ft across the northern waters. Waves in the bay are expected to average 2-4 ft during this Sunday night-Monday period. Waves/seas gradually ramp back down in offshore flow Monday night and especially Tuesday, before elevating again briefly to 3-4 ft Tuesday night and Wednesday. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 1pm this afternoon to 10pm EDT Monday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 7pm this evening to 7pm EDT Monday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 4pm this afternoon to 7pm EDT Monday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory from 4pm this afternoon to 10pm EDT Monday for ANZ638-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 1pm this afternoon to 1am EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654. |
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