Cape Charles Light to Currituck Beach Light Offshore Forecast
| Tonight...N Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. Numerous Showers And Scattered Tstms Gradually Ending. |
| Thu...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 6 To 10 Ft. |
| Thu Night...E To Ne Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 6 To 11 Ft. |
| Fri...E Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 6 To 11 Ft. |
| Fri Night...E Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 6 To 11 Ft. |
| Sat...E Winds 20 To 30 Kt, Increasing To 25 To 35 Kt. Seas 10 To 17 Ft. |
| Sat Night...E Winds 30 To 40 Kt, Becoming Ne. Seas 11 To 19 Ft. |
| Sun...Ne Winds 25 To 35 Kt, Becoming N. Seas 13 To 19 Ft. |
| Sun Night...N To Nw Winds 25 To 35 Kt, Becoming W To Nw. Seas 11 To 16 Ft. |
| Mon...W Winds 25 To 35 Kt, Diminishing To 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 8 To 14 Ft. |
| Mon Night...Nw Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 7 To 12 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 141am EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Synopsis High pressure builds north of the area today into Friday with much cooler and drier air filtering into the area. A coastal low develops off the Southeast coast this weekend into early next week, resulting in the potential for heavy rain and breezy conditions for the eastern half of the area. Near Term - Until 6am This Morning As of 848pm EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - A much cooler airmass builds into the region tonight. A cold front has cut through the forecast area based on latest surface analysis. An UL trough axis is swinging into the Mid- Atlantic, supporting the front from aloft. The initial line of showers has pushed into the Albemarle Sound/offshore. Cloud cover has started scattering out over the FA as the cool, dry high pressure builds in behind the front. Temps are generally in the lower to middle 60s across VA/NC. While across the MD Eastern Shore temperatures are in the upper 50s. N/NW winds behind the front are gusting 20- 25mph along the coastline, while winds inland have begun to calm. High pressure continues to fill in overnight once that cold front is offshore with NW flow setting up aloft. Skies will finish clearing out by morning. Fortunately (or unfortunately depending on your bias), winds will be too elevated (~10-15mph) overnight to set up good radiational cooling and really drop the temperatures. Still going to be on the chilly side, though, with lows in the mid to upper 40s in the piedmont/inland counties and ranging through the 50s near the water and in the southeast. .SHORT TERM /6am THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 305pm EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Much cooler and dry weather is expected Thursday and Friday. - Patchy frost is possible across portions of Louisa and Fluvanna counties Friday morning as temperatures fall back into the 30s. A lot cooler and drier on Thurs and Fri with that strong surface high pressure settling into New England and NW flow continuing aloft. Highs on both days look to be in the mid 60s for much of the area and upper 60s-around 70 along and S of US-460. Mostly sunny skies forecast for tomorrow with perhaps some scattered cloud cover in the SE. Cloud cover increases from the E through the day Fri as an inverted trough (i.e. the beginnings of the weekend coastal low) forms along the coast. Main story during this short term time period is the potential for the season's first Frost Advisory in the NW counties (Fluvanna and Louisa). With the cooler airmass in place, lighter winds, and clear skies, temps could drop into the mid to upper 30s in the NW. Had to blend in NBM25th for temps Thurs night to bring temps down closer to the what the statistical guidance shows. Other inland areas away from the NW will see lows in the low to mid 40s, while eastern counties (except the MD Eastern Shore) see lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Long Term - Saturday Through Wednesday As of 305pm EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - There is increasing confidence that a strong coastal system will impact the region this weekend into early next week. Heavy rain, gusty winds, and significant coastal/marine impacts are all possible. The 12z model guidance continues to come into better agreement with a strong coastal system impacting the region this weekend and likely lingering into Monday. Heavy rain will be possible with this system, with WPC already highlighting eastern portions of our area (including all of Hampton Roads) in a Day 4 Marginal ERO and a Day 5 Slight ERO. Both the 12z GEFS and EPS already show 1 to 3" of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast across the eastern half of the area Saturday night into Monday with 90th percentiles showing upwards of 4-5". Current NBM Probability of Precipitation are likely still too low, only ~50-60% along the coast, Saturday night into early Monday, but these will continue to trend up as model confidence increases. Could potentially dry out going into Tues, but uncertainty is high that far out with regards to where the low will go and when. In addition to the heavy rain threat, it will also be windy with wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph already in the forecast along the immediate coast (highest Sunday-Sunday night). Finally, significant coastal and marine impacts are possible, see the Marine and Tides and Coastal Flooding sections of the discussion below for more details. Temps will be pretty similar each day during this period with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Marine As of 345pm EDT Wednesday.. Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all waters through at least Thursday as a cold front crosses the waters this afternoon. - Low pressure develops south of the area this weekend. While some uncertainty remains, dangerous marine conditions are forecast from Saturday evening into early next week with Gale to Storm conditions likely. Afternoon analysis shows surface low pressure just east of Maine with a trough and cold front extending to the SW of the low center across the local waters. Winds ahead of the boundary are W-SW at 10- 15 kt while locations behind the front have seen an abrupt shift to NNW winds 15-25 kt with gusts 25-30 kt. Seas offshore are 2-4 ft with waves currently around 2 ft in the Bay. The cold front is forecast to continue southward through the remainder of the afternoon and should clear the local waters before sunset. Latest guidance and local wind probs continue to favor a period of high-end SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions this evening into tonight with potential for a brief period of gale-force gusts, especially during the 10PM-2AM period this evening/early tonight when post- frontal pressure rises and cold/dry advection will be maximized. In the wake of the cold front, a compressed pressure gradient will prevail, especially for the southern half of the area with anomalously strong high pressure to our north and lower pressures offshore of the Carolinas. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect and/or have been extended through most of Thursday, with extensions into late Friday for the southern Ches Bay and through Saturday in the coastal waters S of Cape Charles. The mouth of the Bay may need further extensions if 4 ft waves are able to continue moving in from offshore. Otherwise, a reprieve from the wind is possible for the middle/upper bay and adjacent rivers from late Thursday into Saturday. Seas are forecast to build to 5-6 ft by tonight and then 6-8 ft by Thursday, with locally higher seas S. Forecast uncertainty continues for late this weekend into early next week. However, there is excellent agreement across nearly all deterministic and ensemble model guidance that low pressure will develop along the stalled front/coastal trough Saturday, drifting north or northeast near or just offshore of our coastline Sunday into early Monday. The exact track and strength of the low show considerable variation among and within the global deterministic and ensemble solutions, respectively. The latest GFS (Global Forecast System) has become an outlier with the low lifting farther north toward NJ while the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and Canadian show the low lifting north and strengthening on Sunday and doing some kind of pirouette near the coast as the low occludes. The ECMWF/GEM solutions would result in a prolonged period of significant marine impacts, potentially extending well into Monday night and early Tuesday. The GFS depiction would result in a more focused period of strong winds with conditions improving on Monday. In summary, while some details remain uncertain, there is growing potential for high-end Gales or Storm conditions with this forecast cycle. Have continued the trend from previous forecast cycles and increased winds a few more kt from later Saturday into Monday. This brings increasing potential for Storm conditions to the VA and MD coastal waters with gusts to 50 kt and strong Gale conditions elsewhere, including the Chesapeake Bay, with gusts to 40-45 kt. While it is still too early for headlines, Gale and/or Storm Watches will be needed in the coming days. Additionally, seas are forecast to build to at least 10-15+ ft with waves 6-9 ft near the mouth of the Chesapeake. Tides / Coastal Flooding As of 950pm EDT Wednesday... Given the high astronomical tides and moderately strong NE winds, nuisance to minor flooding is possible in areas adjacent to the lower Ches Bay, Currituck Outer Banks, and the tidal York/James on Thursday and Friday. As such, a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for the Currituck Outer Banks Thursday morning (given higher confidence in reaching minor flood stage) with Coastal Flood Statements for the Lower James River and mouth of the Ches Bay (given lower confidence in exceeding minor flood stage). Given that the Thursday afternoon high tide is the lower of the astro tides, will likely handle Friday morning's high tides separately with another round of Coastal Flood Statements or Advisories. Tidal anomalies increase quickly late Saturday through Sunday with widespread moderate to locally major coastal flooding possible by Sunday. The highest confidence is across the Ches Bay (especially the lower bay) and across locations adjacent to the ocean. Will note that the exact flood stage will depend on the details with respect to the track and strength of a coastal low. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8am this morning to noon EDT today for NCZ102. VA...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EDT this evening for ANZ630- 631-633-636-637. Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EDT Friday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 1pm EDT this afternoon for ANZ635. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EDT Friday for ANZ638-650-652- 654. Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EDT Saturday for ANZ656-658. |
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