Cape Charles Light to Currituck Beach Light Offshore Forecast
| Today...N To Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Tonight...N To Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Scattered Tstms And Chance Of Showers. |
| Sun...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Sun Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Mon...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 8 Ft. |
| Mon Night...E To Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 7 Ft. |
| Tue...E To Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 6 Ft. |
| Tue Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Variable. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. |
| Wed...Variable Winds Less Than 5 Kt, Becoming Sw. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Wed Night...S To Sw Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 353pm EDT Sat September 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The severe weather and flooding threat has decreased today. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) The chance for severe weather has diminished across Virginia, but remains in place across NE NC through early evening. Localized flooding remains possible along and south of I-64 through tonight, though confidence has decreased some since this morning. 2) Relatively cooler temperatures are expected early next week with a brief warmup by Wed/Thu. As of 345pm EDT Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1...The chance for severe weather has diminished across Virginia, but remains in place across NE NC through early evening. Localized flooding remains possible along and south of I-64 through tonight, though confidence has decreased some since this morning. Afternoon weather analysis shows that the cold front has pushed through most of the area. Instability has been limited due to 2 factors: the front to our south and the fact that convection moved across central and SE Virginia earlier than expected. Strong to severe storms have developed across western and north-central NC, and could clip far SE portions of the area between now and 7 PM. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued from Bertie to Currituck Counties (along the north side of the Albemarle Sound) to account for this threat. While there will likely be additional development north of the front from the RIC Metro to Hampton Roads, severe weather is not likely though can't completely rule out localized flooding if showers/storms train over urban areas. The threat for flooding will gradually decrease this evening and tonight as the intensity of the convection wanes (though scattered showers likely continue through the night, especially across SW portions of the FA). Shower/storm chances decrease Sunday (15-40% PoPs) with most convection likely confined to the far southern portions of the area (or remaining south altogether). Beyond Sun, dry conditions are expected early next week, likely continuing into midweek. The next chance of rain appears to arrive on Thursday or Friday ahead of a cold front, though guidance is not overly optimistic regarding this. Marine As of 345pm EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Cold front pushes through this afternoon turning winds north/northeasterly. Evening thunderstorm chances continue with gusty winds possible. - Northeasterly winds and seas will increase Sunday into Monday as high pressure builds in from the north. Afternoon weather analysis shows a cold front finally pushing through the waters early this afternoon. This has allowed for winds to shift out of the N and are around 10 kt. Seas remain benign for now with 1-2 ft across the bay and ocean. By tonight, winds will start to shift out of the NE as high pressure moved over New England, however, winds will remain around the same as this afternoon. The slightly higher winds will likely come by Sunday morning as stronger push of cooler and drier air moves into place. Winds speeds will likely be around 15kt with some higher winds further offshore. Gusts in the bay may hover near 20 kt but not enough coverage and duration for a prolonged SCA. While across the ocean gusts will be between 20-25kt. While similar to the bay gusts over the ocean are likely not to be the culprit for likely SCA. Seas are expected to build starting Sunday evening and remain elevated through the start of the work week. Seas are forecasted to build to 4-5 ft in the near shore waters with perhaps some 6ft seas in the VA NC nearshore waters by Monday. While in the 20-60 NM zones seas will likely build to 6-7ft with possible 8ft seas off NC. These elevated seas are likely to bring SCA (Small Craft Advisory) back to the ocean waters. By the middle of the week marine conditions are likely to remain SUB-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) with Southerly flow returning. There is a Low Rip Current Risk today for all beaches. Rip Risk becomes Moderate on Sunday as onshore winds and waves build, then High for southern beaches on Monday and Moderate persisting for the north. Coastal Flooding.... High pressure is expected to move over portions of New England starting early Sunday morning. This will allow for winds to be out of the NE causing favorable conditions for the potential of nuisance to locally minor coastal flooding across tidewater and along the bay side of the Eastern Shore. The favorable high tide cycles for the possible nuisance to locally minor coastal flooding to occur is the high tide cycles Sunday and Monday evening. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine None. |
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