Marine Weather Net

VA-NC border to Currituck Beach Light, NC out 20 nm Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

S
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

THU

S
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

THU NIGHT

N
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

FRI

NW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ658 Forecast Issued: 640 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
Tonight...S Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 6 To 7 Ft With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers Until Early Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers Late.
Thu...S Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt, Becoming Nw 15 To 20 Kt Late. Seas 7 To 9 Ft With A Dominant Period Of 9 Seconds. Showers Likely Early In The Morning, Then Showers In The Late Morning And Early Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers Late. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm In The Late Morning And Early Afternoon.
Thu Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft With A Dominant Period Of 11 Seconds.
Fri...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft With A Dominant Period Of 10 Seconds.
Fri Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.
Sat...N Winds 10 Kt, Becoming Ne In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Sat Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.
Sun...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.
Sun Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA
644pm EST Wednesday Jan 23 2019

Synopsis: A cold front will approach from the west tonight, with an area of low pressure intensifying along the front Thursday morning. The trailing cold front crosses the area Thursday afternoon. High pressure builds in again for the weekend.

Near Term - Through Thursday
As of 350pm EST Wednesday... Latest analysis indicates surface warm front lifting NNW and now placing all of the CWA in the warm sector. Any rain chances will be minimal and limited to the far western portions of the CWA into early this evening. temperatures are mainly in the upper 50s to mid 60s over central/SE VA/NE NC, and into the upper 40s/lower 50s in the Piedmont.

The warm front should be north of the entire area this evening leaving the fa in the warm sector overnight. Meanwhile, moisture from the second area of low pressure overspreads the region but will be slow to do so. Have lowered Probability of Precipitation overall compared to previous forecast, delaying likely to categorical Probability of Precipitation until after midnight for most areas, and really until daybreak along the coast. Thus, very warm and breezy conditions tonight with lows from the mid 40s far NW to mid/upper 50s central and SE.

The low tracks NE along the advancing cold front Thu morning with the trailing cold front crossing the area through the day, pushing offshore by 21Z/Thu to 00Z Fri. Data shows a decent slug of southern stream moisture combined with strong lift btwn 12Z- 18Z just ahead of the cold front. Some convective elements noted for a band of locally heavy downpours. Thus, continued with some R+ for a 3-6 hr period. Also see the potential for brief wind gusts to 35-45 mph sometime from 12-15Z give or take an hr or two. Opted against a wind advisory in favor of issuing SPS's as the duration is expected to be only 1-2 hrs. If a wind advisory were to be issued by next shift, would likely be the eastern shore and far SE VA/NE NC. Pcpn quickly tapers off to some light rain or showers Thu afternoon west to east as the front pushes all the deep moisture towards the coast. Mild with highs upper 50s NW and most of the eastern shore to lower-mid 60s most other places. Quantitative Precipitation Forecast will avg 0.75" to 1.25"

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 350pm EST Wednesday... Clearing and colder Thu night as weak high pressure briefly builds in from the nw. Lows mid/upper 20s NW to mid 30s SE. A trailing upper level shortwave will cross the area on Fri and after a sunny start will see some clouds develop by late morning/early aftn. There will be decent lift due to the upper energy aloft, but low levels look very dry so did not add any Probability of Precipitation at this time (though will need to watch this closely as a 20% Probability of Precipitation may be needed). Back to near normal temps Fri with highs mainly in the 40s and then below normal temps Fri night (lows in the upper teens to mid 20s) and Sat (highs upper 30s to lower 40s) as cold high pressure builds in and settles over the region

Long Term - Saturday Night Through Wednesday
As of 350pm EST Wednesday... Fairly quiet conditions for much of the extended period in our area. An upper level disturbance skirts north of the area during the day on Sunday which may lead to some light precipitation across the far northern portions of the area. Due to the lack of moisture, just maintained a slight chance of Probability of Precipitation across the north into Sunday night. Warm air advection develops Monday into Tuesday as upper heigheights build ahead of another Great Lakes low pressure system. The associated cold front approaches the region late in the day on and crosses the region early Wednesday bringing the potential for rain or snow showers across the region. Much colder conditions work into the region by Wednesday night.

Marine Discussion
As of 400pm EST Wednesday... A digging upper trough from the central Plains ewrd into the OH/TN valleys will result in surface low pressure and an associated frontal boundary will push into the area fm the west tonight into Thu morning. Increasingly steep pressure gradient between departing high pressure and the approaching low/frontal boundary will allow S winds to increase to 15-25 kt with gusts to 30-40 kt very late tonight thru Thu morning. Have gone with a Gale warning for the northern three coastal zns (650-654) from late tonight into early Thu afternoon, due to gusts to 35-40 kt in these areas. Have maintained Small Craft Advisories for the remainder of the waters into early Thu afternoon, with gusts 30-35 kt possible at the mouth of the Ches Bay, the Currituck Sound, and the southern two coastal zns. Waves will build to 3-5 ft in the Ches Bay tonight into Thu morning, with seas building to 7-12 ft.

Will have to monitor for the potential for a High Surf Advisory on Thu from roughly Cape Charles Light northward. Winds will become NW behind the frontal boundary late Thu aftn. Cold advection behind the front appears rather anemic with northwest winds 10-20 kt in its wake, decreasing further Thu evening. Seas will be slow to subside Thu into Fri morning, with Small Craft Advisories for the coastal zns lasting into Fri morning.

High pressure builds into the region Fri into Sat with tranquil marine conditions in store through the upcoming weekend

Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 350pm EST Wednesday... Departures will continue to rise in the strong S flow through Thu morning (especially in the mid/upper Bay) but not expecting any sites to hit minor flood thresholds at this time

Equipment
As of 300am EST Wednesday... The KAKQ radar remains down due to a pedestal slip ring assembly failure. Due to the time to procure/ship the needed parts, and the repair time, the radar will remain down through at least Friday

NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.
MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory until 1pm EST Thursday for ANZ635>637.
Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EST Thursday for ANZ630>634- 638.
Small Craft Advisory until 4am EST Thursday for ANZ650-652- 654.
Gale Warning from 4am to 1pm EST Thursday for ANZ650-652-654.
Small Craft Advisory until 10am EST Friday for ANZ656-658.

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