VA-NC border to Currituck Beach Light, NC out 20 nm Marine Forecast
|This Afternoon...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft With A Dominant Period Of 9 Seconds.|
|Tonight...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft With A Dominant Period Of 9 Seconds.|
|Wed...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft With A Dominant Period Of 7 Seconds.|
|Wed Night...Sw Winds 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds.|
|Thu...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft With A Dominant Period Of 7 Seconds.|
|Thu Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft With A Dominant Period Of 4 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Fri...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon.|
|Fri Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening.|
|Sat...Sw Winds 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon.|
|Sat Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
344pm EDT Tuesday Jun 2 2020
High pressure becomes centered off the southeast coast through Friday. A warm lifts north of the area tonight. A cold front crosses the region Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Near Term - Until 6am Wednesday Morning
As of 330pm EDT Tuesday... Late afternoon weather analysis shows broad, weak upper ridging centered from the eastern Gulf of Mexico NNW to the MS River Valley. Tropical Storm Cristobal was located over the Bay of Campeche (S of the upper ridge). Locally, our area is in NW flow aloft on the E side of the ridge (w/ weak shortwave energy crossing NE portions of the region). At the surface, a subtle warm front is now NE of most of the area. Partial clearing has occurred over much of the area, allowing temperatures to rise into the upper 70s-low 80s over much of VA/NC, with low-mid 70s over the Ern Shore (where it is still mostly cloudy in some areas). Radar mosaic is still showing a couple of very light echoes over the MD Ern Shore, but much of this is likely not reaching the ground. Temperatures will likely rise a few degrees during the next few hours.
The warm front moves NE of the entire area by tonight. Models continue to show some additional weak shortwave energy crossing the eastern shore this evening. Will maintain slight chance Probability of Precipitation through midnight, with Probability of Precipitation aob 14% in all areas thereafter. Otherwise, partly cloudy (on average) tonight with WAA/increasing SW winds behind the front. Could see some gusts to 20-25 mph near the coast tonight. Warmer/more humid with lows mainly in the upper 60s-near 70F.
Short Term - 6am Wednesday Morning Through Friday
As of 330pm EDT Tuesday... Wednesday is still on track to be the hottest day of the year so far with Bermuda high pressure to our SE, and low-level WSW flow. 850 mb temperatures are forecast to rise to 18-20C. This will allow temperatures to rise into the low-mid 90s in most area (even on the Ern Shore). Heat indices will only be a couple of degrees higher than the actual temperatures given dew points mainly in the mid 60s in areas with the highest forecast temperatures. Strong to severe convection is forecast to develop well to our N (across PA/NJ) Wednesday afternoon in a belt of 50-65 kt mid- level (NW) flow. A capping inversion in the 800-700 mb layer will very likely prevent convective initiation across the local area during the day on Wed. This is in addition to the fact that the strongest shortwave energy (and best deep-layer shear) will be displaced to our N. There is a slight chance that a few (weakening) storms make it to the Lower Ern Shore/VA Northern Neck after 00z Thu. However, most of the CAMs keep our area dry through Wednesday night so have continued to cap Probability of Precipitation at 20%. Otherwise, partly cloudy, warm, and humid Wednesday night w/ lows in the upper 60s-low 70s.
The flow aloft becomes more westerly by Thu/Fri as broad upper troughing to our south/west slowly approaches the area (but the strongest mid-level flow will remain N of the local area). This still should be enough to erode the capping inversion aloft. At the surface, a cold front will remain well to our NW through the end of the week, but pre-frontal lee troughing will provide a focusing mechanism for scattered tstm development each day. On Thursday, expect tstms to initially develop just to our west during the early afternoon before moving across the area (mainly N of I-64/W of I-95) during the evening before diurnal weakening occurs Thu night. Will ramp up Probability of Precipitation a couple hours earlier than model forecasts, as tstms have initiated slightly earlier than forecast during most of the last few of convective events in the local area. Still think that most of the tstms will hold off until after 2 PM. Will cap Probability of Precipitation at 50% for most areas, with likely Probability of Precipitation across far NW zones. Could see a few storms with damaging wind gusts/marginally severe hail on Thu, given decent (~6.5C/km) mid- level lapse rates and moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE). Storm Prediction Center has the entire area in a Marginal Risk for severe weather on Thu. Deep-layer flow will be slightly less than ideal for organized storms, precluding a greater severe threat. Most of the storms will have dissipated by 06z Fri. Highs Thu mainly around 90F. Lows Thu night in the upper 60s-low 70s. Friday will be similar to Thursday with tstms developing during the afternoon and dissipating by Fri night. Have PoPs mainly in the 30-50% range Fri aftn/evening (again highest W). Very warm/humid with highs around 90F. Fairly weak deep- layer flow will likely preclude an organized severe threat threat though.
Long Term - Friday Night Through Monday
As of 340pm EDT Tuesday... At the start of the medium range period (Friday night), a strong upper low will be centered over eastern Canada (with weak/broad upper troughing extending into the Mid-Atlantic to the Gulf of Mexico). Meanwhile, TS Cristobal will be centered somewhere in the SW Gulf of Mexico while moving slowly nwd (see latest forecasts from NHC for details). At the surface, low pressure will be centered over far SE Canada/northern New England by 12z Sat while the associated cold front will still be just to our NW. Locally, the flow aloft turns from the W to NW from Sat-Sunday as the trough aloft/upper low amplify to our NE (over the Canadian Maritimes). Model consensus is still forecasting the trailing cold front to push through by Sunam as the associated surface low deepens well to our NE. Still looking like a very warm and somewhat humid day on Sat with scattered tstms developing across the area during the aftn/evening along the cold front. For now, will cap Probability of Precipitation at 50% on Sat and will decrease Probability of Precipitation from NW to SE Sat night as the front crosses the region. Sunday looks dry in the wake of the front, with lower humidity and lows in the 60s with highs in the upper 70s to low-mid 80s. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) shows a few showers across SE zones on Sun, but kept this out of the forecast for now. Consensus of GEFS/EPS show TS Cristobal making landfall somewhere along the warning Gulf coast on Monday before its remnant low tracks north then northeast from early-mid next week on the west/northwest side of a building upper ridge (ridge axis centered just to our W). This will likely result in a slow warming trend with increasing humidity (but with mainly dry conditions). After lows in the upper 50s-low 60s Sunday night, highs will be back into the low-mid 80s on Mon/mid-upper 80s by Tue. Probability of Precipitation remain aob 14% (below climo) from Sun-Tuesday AM. Could see an isolated tstm (mainly W) Tuesday aftn/evening.
As of 315pm EDT Tuesday... High pressure is centered off the southeastern U.S. coast this afternoon and low pressure over the Great lakes was resulting in a persistent southwest wind of 10-15 kt across area coastal waters and Bay. Waves in the bay are generally around 1 ft and seas 2-3 ft in the ocean.
The SCA (Small Craft Advisory) was pushed a little farther north from New Point Comfort north to Windmill Point. This in addition to the Lower Bay and Lower James River amd Currituck Sound. The gradient tightens late tonight into early Wednesday morning and a low level jet set up which will result in SW winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 23 kt after midnight and into Wednesday morning. Winds will diminish mid-morning Wednesday as a trough tracks east across the Mid-Atlantic, then off the coast. Waves in the lower James River and southern Chesapeake Bay will be 2-3 ft Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, and 1-3 ft farther north across the bay. Seas will build to 3-4 by Wednesday morning.
The area remains stuck in this pattern with high remaining off the southeastern U.S. coast through Friday. Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels through Friday with winds SSW generally 10-15 kt and waves 1-2 ft on the Bay, seas 2-4 ft in the ocean. Thunderstorms are forecasted Thursday and Friday and should be scattered in nature. These storm could produce brief periods of high wind gusts later this week. The next cold front approaches from the west late Saturday and will push offshore Saturday night into early Sunday.
Most locations have not yet reached 90F this year. The current forecast has most of the CWA reaching at least 90F on Wednesday (June 3rd). In most years, 90F is reached by the end of May and for comparison purposes, these dates are listed below, with record highs also included:
* Average Date of 1st 90F Day/% of Yrs 1st 90F Day after June 3:
* RIC: May 13th / 20 of 123 (16%) had 1st 90F after June 3rd * ORF: May 16th / 36 of 146 (25%) had 1st 90F after June 3rd * SBY: May 27th / 37 of 114 (32%) had 1st 90F after June 3rd * ECG: May 18th / 17 of 86 (20%) had 1st 90F after June 3rd
* Record Highs Wednesday 6/3:
* RIC: 98 (1936) * ORF: 99 (1895) * SBY: 95 (1925) * ECG: 98 (1943)
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.
Small Craft Advisory from 11pm this evening to 8am EDT Wednesday for ANZ631-632-634-638. Small Craft Advisory from 11pm this evening to 11am EDT Wednesday for ANZ633.