Marine Weather Net

VA-NC border to Currituck Beach Light, NC out 20 nm Marine Forecast


OVERNIGHT

SE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

WED

E
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

WED NIGHT

E
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

THU

E
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ658 Forecast Issued: 932 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Overnight...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: E 3 Ft At 7 Seconds And E 1 Foot At 11 Seconds.
Wed...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: E 3 Ft At 6 Seconds And E 1 Foot At 11 Seconds.
Wed Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: E 3 Ft At 8 Seconds.
Thu...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: E 4 Ft At 8 Seconds.
Thu Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: E 4 Ft At 9 Seconds.
Fri...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft.
Fri Night...S Winds 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft.
Sat...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas Around 3 Ft.
Sat Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
733pm EDT Tuesday Jun 18 2024

Synopsis
High pressure currently off the New England coast slowly shifts south through the end of the week. A very warm and dry pattern will continue this week, with very hot weather expected this weekend with widespread mid to upper 90s.

Near Term - Through Wednesday
As of 735pm EDT Tuesday... Key Message: - Quiet night with temperatures dropping back to a comfortable low to mid 60s (except mid-upper 60s at the coast).

Temps as of 730pm ranged from the upper 70s to mid 80s under mostly clear skies. With dew points in the low to mid 60s, expect temps to drop back into a lower to mid 60s inland and mid-upper 60s near the coast overnight. May be some thin cirrus moving in late tonight, but they should not impact the low temperatures much.

Short Term - Wednesday Night Through Friday
As of 230pm EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Pleasant weather with seasonably warm temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday.

- Turning warmer and a little more humid for Friday.

Very pleasant days on Wednesday and Thu with the high pressure ridge in control. No chances for precipitation with seasonably warm temperatures. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 80s with relatively low humidity (dew points forecast in the lower 60s). Slightly warmer on Thursday as the surface ridge shifts southward leading to 850mb temps being about a degree warmer than Wed. Still, temps will top out in the lower 90s with still relatively low dew points in the low-mid 60s.

The heat will start to build on Friday as the surface and upper ridge axis shift further south, leading to the warmer 850mb temps currently over the Ohio Valley to move over the middle Atlantic. This will help winds to become north southwesterly especially inland helping to warm the entire region, but especially inland areas. Have trended the Friday temperatures up perhaps a degree or so, but still in the mid 90s in central VA and lower 90s closer to the coast and in NE NC.

Long Term - Friday Night Through Tuesday
As of 230pm EDT Tuesday... Key Messages:

-Building heat through the weekend with dangerous heat index values approaching 105F or greater by Sunday. Dangerous heat possible on Monday as well.

- A weakening frontal system may bring isolated to widely scattered showers or storms on Sunday night into Tuesday, but the confidence is low for widespread rainfall.

Latest NBM guidance suggests temps a degree or two warmer Saturday and Sunday, especially in central Virginia. This seems to be in line with the other ensemble guidance that shows about a 50% probability of 100F or greater temps by Sunday. Although the ongoing dryness will likely keep dew points from becoming too extreme, even dew points in the upper 60s to around 70 yield heat index values of around 105F with WBGT values in the 85 to 87 range. These type of values would need a heat advisory for much of the area for the upcoming weekend. Confidence for temps on Monday is lower than the weekend due to the potential for precipitation and more clouds. It may be just a tad cooler given increased clouds and perhaps a few storms but if there are less clouds then we could make a run at 100F on Monday as well.

Otherwise, rainfall continues to look hard to come by for the next 7 days. Will maintain slight chance or small chance Probability of Precipitation for Sunday night through Tuesday as the frontal boundary slows down or stalls over the region. Unfortunately moisture will be very hard to come by but with the boundary around there will be enough lift for at least a few showers/storms especially on Monday. Many places unfortunately will not see much rain. In fact, the Grand Ensemble (EPS/GEFS/Canadian Ens) probability of at least 0.25" of 72 hr rainfall ending 12z Tuesday is only about 30 percent, while the probability of less than 0.10" is nearly 40 percent.

Marine
As of 200pm EDT Tuesday... Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) winds expected this week, though a few gusts to around 20 kt are possible during the afternoon hours.

- Moderate rip current risk at Ocean City and Assateague beaches today. Moderate rip risk expected to persist at all local beaches for the next couple of days.

Winds remain east/southeasterly across the marine area this afternoon, and will persist as such through most of the week as high pressure sits overhead. Scattered spots in the lower Bay could see slightly elevated gusts to 20-22kt this afternoon, though sustained winds are forecast to remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds. Seas are 2-3ft with waves of 1-2ft, and these conditions are expected to persist, aside from a brief period of 2-3ft waves possible in the lower Bay this afternoon as the wind increases. The flow becomes more southerly Friday and into the weekend as the area of high pressure drifts south. Winds may increase on Saturday as the pressure gradient tightens a bit between the high pressure and an approaching trough. As of this forecast package, the best chance for any SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds would come on Sunday as the trough pushes through the area. This potentially may also bring our first rain chances later Sunday into Monday.

The rip current risk is moderate across northern beaches and low across southern beaches today. A moderate risk is forecast at all beaches Wednesday. Swell energy and wave periods increase some for Thursday and Friday, suggesting a continuation of at least moderate

NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.

Marine
None.

NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.

Marine
None.