VA-NC border to Currituck Beach Light, NC out 20 nm Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Se Winds 25 To 35 Kt With Gusts To 45 Kt, Becoming S 25 To 30 Kt Late In The Evening, Then Becoming Sw 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight, Increasing To 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts To 40 Kt Late. Seas 11 To 13 Ft, Subsiding To 7 To 9 Ft. Dominant Period 7 Seconds. Rain, Mainly In The Evening With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Mon...W Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts To 40 Kt. Seas 7 To 9 Ft. Dominant Period 10 Seconds.|
|Mon Night...W Winds 25 To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 20 To 25 Kt Late. Gusts To 40 Kt. Seas 6 To 7 Ft. Dominant Period 5 Seconds.|
|Tue...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 5 To 6 Ft, Subsiding To 3 To 4 Ft In The Afternoon. Dominant Period 5 Seconds.|
|Tue Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw Late. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Mainly E Swell. Dominant Period 11 Seconds.|
|Wed...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Wed Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Rain After Midnight.|
|Thu...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft, Building To 6 To 7 Ft In The Afternoon. Rain Likely, Mainly In The Morning.|
|Thu Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 5 To 6 Ft, Subsiding To 4 Ft After Midnight. A Chance Of Rain And Snow.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
728pm EST Sunday Jan 16 2022
A potent storm system will lift across the local area tonight into early Monday morning. High pressure returns for Monday night through midweek.
Near Term - Through Monday
As of 725pm EST Sunday... Winter Weather Advisories have expired or been cancelled from the RIC metro south as temperatures have risen above 32F. At this time, the greatest threat area is from Farmville to Fluvanna and Louisa counties for freezing rain.
Previous Discussion... Latest analysis reveals secondary surface low lifting across the Carolina coastal plain this afternoon. Meanwhile, cold Canadian high pressure over the St. Lawrence Valley and coastal New England was analyzed ridging south into the region. Warm nose aloft has nudged NNW along the coastal Carolinas into the southeastern third of the area, turning precipitation over to mainly rain along the SE coast, and a mix of sleet and freezing rain based on surface observations and Mping reports, which meshes well with KAKQ CC data. Meanwhile, axis of lift is pivoting north across the I-64 corridor into N VA over the next couple of hours, with moderate to locally heavy snowfall reported over the northern half of the area. As that best lift pushes north, expect that the progression over to freezing precipitation (FZRA/IP mix inland, mainly rain I-95 east) will continue as depicted in the current forecast. That said, did add a bit more FZRA/ice accretion in the RIC metro and points NW, with snow totals mainly no more than 2-4" in our far NW (up to 2" over RIC metro, highest NNW), with one to two-tenths of an inch of FZRA across the piedmont. The area of greatest concern locally remains over the far western piedmont zones. As winds ramp up this afternoon and this evening, still concerned for additional potential tree damage and power outages, as well as the travel disruptions we're already seeing before relatively milder air arrives late this evening.
Wind Advisory continues over coastal sections, with gusts to 45 mph expected. Even inland, gusts of 30-40 mph are likely over the western half of the area this evening before backing off late tonight. The system lifts out of the region late tonight, with top-down drying ensuing. Some lingering light mixed precipitation possible after midnight as the system exits into the northeast. As colder air sweeps back in late tonight, will need to be vigilant for potential black ice issues overnight.
Cold and blustery on Monday, as winds pick back up out of the west behind the departing system. Winds once again gusty owing to the compressed pressure gradient. Westerly winds 15-20 mph with gusts 25-35 mph inland, and sustain winds 20-25 mph with gusts 35-45 mph along the coast. Partly to mostly cloudy a few stray flurries possible in the afternoon, but mainly just cold and dry. Highs Monday mainly in the upper 30s to low 40s, though wind chills remain in the upper 20s to mid 30s throughout the day.
Short Term - Monday Night Through Wednesday
As of 245pm EST Sunday... High pressure will be centered SW of the local area Monday night into Tuesday morning leading to dry/cool conditions. Temperatures will drop into the 20s (possible upper teens Louisa/NW) for much of the area away from the immediate coast. Plenty of sunshine on Tuesday, but still remaining chilly (and slightly breezy). High temperatures Tuesday will generally range from the low to mid 40s. The center of the high will slide by to our south and off the coast by Tuesday night into Wednesday. Another chilly night Tuesday night with 20s again for much of the area inland (30s near/along the coast). Remaining dry on Wednesday, but clouds will be on the increase through the day as a cold front approaches from the west. Warmer Wednesday as the flow becomes S to SW ahead of the front with highs ranging from the upper 40s NW to the mid to upper 50s SE.
Long Term - Wednesday Night Through Sunday
As of 245pm EST Sunday... To start the long term forecast period, a cold front likely dips through the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning with colder air filtering in from the NW in its wake. Brought Probability of Precipitation up into the likely category for much of the area during the Wednesday night/early Thursday timeframe. The front moves SE of the local area by Thursday morning and rain chances diminish from NW to SE. Some snowflakes may try to mix in at the tail-end of the precipitation Thursday morning as the colder air filters in. Chilly on Thursday with (early) highs in the upper 30s NW to around 50 SE. Cold Thursday night with low temperatures in the teens for the NW half of the area to the 20s SE.
Attention then turns to the late week period. A colder airmass arrives from the NW Friday into Saturday with the potential for a vigorous shortwave and surface low pressure lifting NE in vicinity of the Carolina coast. Confidence is still low in this time period with certain global deterministic models showing snow across the southern Mid- Atlantic and eastern Carolinas. It is best to use ensemble guidance this far out, and the EPS has 30-50% probs for 1" of snow Friday-Saturday and 20-30% for 3" (which is somewhat notable at this range). The GEFS has somewhat lower values snow probabilities while the CMC is on the higher side. It is important to follow the latest forecasts over the next several days and avoid extreme outliers until details come into better focus. Regardless, it will likely be much colder later next week into the weekend with highs in the upper 20s to 30s, and lows in the teens and 20s.
As of 350pm EST Sunday... Strong low pressure is currently located across southern NC and will track to the N this evening and continue to rapidly intensify overnight across the northern mid-Atlantic region. With high pressure centered off the New England coast, strong ENE winds will shift to the E/SE this evening, and eventually to the SW overnight. Gale headlines are in effect all the waters. E/NE winds are 25 G35kt across the south and generally 15-25 with gusts to 30kt across the N. Seas are 8-10ft S and 5-8ft N. Wind probs cont to show a period of very strong gales to potentially a few storm force gusts within a few hrs either side of 00Z across the southern zones, spreading N into the remainder of the area btwn 01Z- 04Z.
Winds briefly diminish while shifting to the S, then ramp back up as they turn to W/SW between 05-09Z Mon. This is due to deep mixing and the rapidly deepening surface low north of the local area (on the order of 20mb/6 hr). This results in gale force gusts continuing through the day Monday and into Monday evening along the coastal waters and Bay. Winds diminish late Monday night/Tues as high pressure builds into the area.
Seas rapidly build to between 10-15 ft late this aftn/eve (due to the onshore flow), then remain elevated into Mon. High surf advisories remain in effect from later today across the southern waters, spreading north along the Delmarva beaches tonight as near shore waves build to 8 ft or higher due to the strong onshore winds. Nearshore waves subside Monday as the flow turns offshore. Waves in the Bay will also rapidly build, especially across the Lower Bay, where 5-7 ft waves will be possible this eve (and up to 8-9ft at the mouth of the Bay).
Conditions improve by mid week as high pressure builds into the area. However, seas may take a while to drop below 5 ft Tue/Tuesday night. Another front crossing the area into Thu will likely leads to marginal SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions. A strong low pressure system may affect the region by early next weekend as well.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 350pm EST Sunday... Strong low pressure is currently located across southern NC and will track to the N this evening and continue to rapidly intensify overnight across the northern mid-Atlantic region. With high pressure centered off the New England coast, strong ENE winds will shift to the E/SE this evening, and eventually to the SW overnight.
This pattern tends to lead to the most significant tidal flooding across the western shore of the middle/upper Bay in response to E to SE winds to Gale force, then as the winds shift to the SW overnight, areas in MD lower shore along the Bay will see a rapid rise in water levels after midnight/early Monday AM.
Coastal Flood Warnings are in effect for areas including Windmill Pt, Lewisetta, Bishop's Head, Crisfield, Saxis for at least some moderate flooding, with advisories in effect for the southern Ches Bay and James/York rivers where minor some flooding is expected during the upcoming evening high tide. Strong offshore winds Monday into early Tuesday will likely lead to blow-out tides and potentially some Low Water Advisories.
Tidal water levels rapidly diminish by later Monday morning as the low pulls away and winds become offshore. In addition to tidal flooding, high surf advisories are in effect along the coast as seas build to 10 to 15 feet. Rough surf may result in instances of beach erosion and dune overwash.
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...Coastal Flood Warning from 11pm this evening to 3pm EST Monday for MDZ021>023. High Surf Advisory until 10am EST Monday for MDZ025. Wind Advisory until 4am EST Monday for MDZ024-025. NC...Wind Advisory until 1am EST Monday for NCZ015>017-102. High Surf Advisory until 4am EST Monday for NCZ102. VA...Winter Storm Warning until 5am EST Monday for VAZ048-509. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2am EST Monday for VAZ089-090- 093-096-524. Wind Advisory until 1am EST Monday for VAZ077-078-084>086-095- 097-098-523-525. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11pm EST this evening for VAZ084- 086-095-097-100-523-525. Winter Storm Warning until 7am EST Monday for VAZ060>062- 065>069-510. High Surf Advisory until 4am EST Monday for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Warning from 11pm this evening to 3pm EST Monday for VAZ099. High Surf Advisory until 10am EST Monday for VAZ099-100. Wind Advisory until 4am EST Monday for VAZ099-100. Winter Weather Advisory until 5am EST Monday for VAZ064-511. Coastal Flood Warning until 3am EST Monday for VAZ075-077-078- 085.
Gale Warning until 4am EST Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654. Gale Warning until 1am EST Tuesday for ANZ656-658. Gale Warning until 10am EST Monday for ANZ635>637. Gale Warning until 10pm EST Monday for ANZ630>634. Gale Warning until 1pm EST Monday for ANZ638.