VA-NC border to Currituck Beach Light, NC out 20 nm Marine Forecast
| Tonight...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 3 Ft At 8 Seconds And Ne 1 Foot At 9 Seconds. |
| Mon...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 3 Ft At 8 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 3 Seconds. |
| Mon Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 2 Ft At 4 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
| Tue...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 3 Ft At 9 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 4 Seconds. |
| Tue Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 2 Ft At 4 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Wed...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. |
| Wed Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. |
| Thu...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Thu Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 726pm EDT Sunday May 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated discussion. No major changes to the forecast. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening north of Richmond and over the VA Northern Neck and MD Eastern Shore. 2) Remaining hot and dry, with well above normal temperatures continuing through Wednesday. 3) An increasingly unsettled and cooler pattern looks to evolve for the late week period with more uncertainty in temperatures over the Memorial Day Weekend. As of 300pm EDT Sunday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening north of Richmond and over the VA Northern Neck and MD Eastern Shore. Afternoon weather analysis shows a building upper ridge over the eastern CONUS with surface high pressure centered offshore. Temps have risen into the mid 80s-lower 90s. Despite the building upper heights, a remnant MCV (Mesoscale Cyclonic Vortice, a low-pressure center in a group of thunderstorms, that pulls winds into a circling pattern, or vortex) tracking through NW VA will track along our northern CWA (County Warning Area) border from now through this evening. With the hot and slightly unstable airmass (thanks to dew pts only in the 50s), isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out this evening from the central VA Piedmont to the Northern Neck/MD Eastern Shore. A few of the CAMs (including the RRFS this morning's HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) runs) show a couple of storms developing across far northern portions of our area. However, given the previously referenced building heigheights and modest instability (~500 J/kg of MLCAPE), the atmosphere may very well remain capped. Have maintained slight chance to low chance (20-30%) Probability of Precipitation over the northern third of the area. Any showers or storms should quickly dissipate by 9-10 PM, allowing for a clearing and mild to warm evening and overnight. Lows mainly in the 60s to near 70 degrees along the coast. KEY MESSAGE 2...Remaining hot and dry, with well above normal temperatures continuing through Wednesday. Summer-like heat makes its presence felt across the region for much of the first half of the upcoming week. Building ridging and minimal low-level moisture should lock in a hot and dry first half of the week. Widespread mid 90s are expected inland each day, with lower 90s closer to the immediate coast due to H85 temps maxing out between 18-20 deg C, good mixing, and continued low-level SSW flow. Temps will be similar each day, with Wednesday perhaps being a degree or two warmer. Forecast confidence in temperatures from Mon- Wednesday remains high. As noted in the first point above, the strong mixing and dry antecedent conditions will continue to allow early morning dewpoints to mix out by afternoon, and fall back into the upper 50s to low 60s each day. This will keep heat indices close to actual air temps. Dry weather persists through at least Wednesday AM. However, upper heigheights begin to fall during the day Wednesday as a cold front slowly approaches to our NW. Tstms will develop to our northwest during the afternoon and may move into the Piedmont/Northern Neck/MD Eastern Shore by the evening. It remains somewhat uncertain how far SE convection makes it Wednesday evening before some degree of diurnal weakening occurs. This will depend on the progression of the cold front. However, at this time, it appears that convection most likely stays north and west of the RIC Metro Wednesday evening. KEY MESSAGE 3...An increasingly unsettled and cooler pattern looks to evolve for the late week period with more uncertainty in temperatures over the Memorial Day Weekend. A shortwave trough is forecast to lift across the upper Midwest into eastern Canada from Wednesday-Thursday. This will allow the ridge to become suppressed to our SE, while also allowing cool high pressure to settle over the Great Lakes and SE Canada. While there remain model differences, the above mentioned cold front is forecast to cross the area on Thursday. The front lingers across the area on Friday, and may move back north of the area late Friday-Friday night. With the front moving south of the area on Thursday, expect a cooler, cloudy day with rain (can't completely rule out a tstm across extreme SE portions of the area depending on the speed of the front). Periods of rain remain possible Thursday night and Friday with the front nearby. Temps may struggle to get out of the lower 60s on Thursday and Friday (especially N/NE). Isolated to scattered showers and a few storms (along with warmer temps) are possible Memorial Day weekend with the front moving back to the north. As previously mentioned, the temperature forecast on Friday and especially Saturday is highly uncertain and depends on the exact position of the front. In fact, model solutions vary between the 60s and 80s for Saturday! As for precipitation amounts, ensemble (EPS/GEPS/GEFS) probs for at least 0.5" of 48 hour total rainfall for Wednesday night-Fri Night are around or just above 50% across the entire CWA. However, still am not as optimistic as ensemble/NBM guidance given a potentially unfavorable FROPA timing for convection (Wednesday's convection may be focused to our north and Thursday's may be suppressed to our south). Also, some of our recent rain events have underperformed with respect to Day 3-5 model/ensemble forecasts. Marine As of 300pm EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Mainly sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are expected across the local waters through at least mid-week with primarily southerly winds. The latest weather analysis shows expansive high pressure offshore and to the southeast. Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions will likely continue through at least mid-week as the Bermuda high settles into place. Light winds out of the southwest are observed today between 5-10 kt. Waves are measured to be ~1 ft in the Ches. Bay and seas of 2-3 ft in the coastal waters. Winds will remain similar through the rest of the day and into Monday afternoon. SSW winds will then increase slightly to ~15 kt with gusts to 20 kt Monday afternoon in the Ches. Bay and coastal waters, but should stay below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria. A similar story will be seen Tuesday afternoon as winds approach marginal SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions with SSW becoming 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the Ches. Bay and 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the coastal waters north of the VA/NC state border. Confidence is low in needing SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) as local probs are still quite low. The next cold front looks to cross the waters some time early Thursday morning with increasing NE winds late week. At this time, in-house wind probs suggest that even behind the front, only brief marginal SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are possible and conditions may stay under SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria through next weekend. Climate As of 400am Sunday... Record High Temps for 5/17 - 5/20 Record Record Record Record High/Year High/Year High/Year High/Year Location 5/17 5/18 5/19 5/20 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 94 (1974) 95 (1962) 97 (1962) 97 (2022) Norfolk 94 (2017) 95 (1877) 96 (1880) 98 (1996) Salisbury 91 (2017) 96 (1911) 97 (2011) 98 (1911) Eliz. City 95 (1941) 93 (1987) 95 (1996) 98 (1996) Record High Min Temps for 5/17 - 5/20 Record Record Record Record High High High High Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Location 5/17 5/18 5/19 5/20 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 69 (1990) 72 (2015) 71 (1997) 71 (2018) Norfolk 72 (2018) 75 (1995) 72 (2017) 73 (1996) Salisbury 69 (1974) 71 (1953) 70 (1929) 70 (2018) Eliz. City 70 (2018) 73 (1995) 72 (2018) 73 (2018) NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine None. |
Newport NC Radar
Southeast Radar
East Coast Satellite