VA-NC border to Currituck Beach Light, NC out 20 nm Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...Se Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft, Building To 5 To 6 Ft, With A Dominant Period Of 8 Seconds. Showers Likely With A Slight Chance Of Tstms.|
|Mon...Se Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 6 To 7 Ft With A Dominant Period Of 8 Seconds. A Chance Of Tstms. Showers Likely Until Late Afternoon, Then A Chance Of Showers Late.|
|Mon Night...Se Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 6 To 7 Ft With A Dominant Period Of 8 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Tue...Se Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft With A Dominant Period Of 8 Seconds. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms.|
|Tue Night...S Winds 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms.|
|Wed...S Winds 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms.|
|Wed Night...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas Around 5 Ft. Tstms Likely. Showers Likely.|
|Thu...S Winds 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Showers And Tstms Likely, Mainly In The Morning.|
|Thu Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Fri...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Fri Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1004pm EDT Sunday July 22 2018
Synopsis: A moist southerly flow, coupled with a low pressure trough aloft over the Tennessee Valley and southeast U.S., will result in an unsettled pattern through at least the middle of next week.
Near Term - Until 6am Monday Morning
As of 1005pm EDT Sunday... Synoptic pattern remains stable w/ a trough aloft across the ern CONUS and a ridge the warning Atlantic. Moist SSE flow persistents and another surge of moisture is present into SE VA-NE NC. Have added a FFA for SE VA-NE NC per coord w/ WPC and near model guidance...and have exteneded the current FFA for interior eastern VA for potential development of SHRAs/tstms (over already satuated ground). PWs well above normal into/over the local area in deep unidirectional SSE flow. Elsewhere...additional SHRAs/ISOLD-SCT tstms possible inland. Otherwise...partly to mostly cloudy. Lows in the l70s W to the m-u70s E.
Short Term - 6am Monday Morning Through Tuesday Night
As of 955pm EDT Sunday... Unsettled/wet conditions will continue Mon...although the precipitation will likely back to the west Monday afternoon as the trough to the west becomes even more negatively tilted due to another short wave moving around the trough. Will have categorical across much of the area for Mon.
The wet and unsettled weather continues through Wednesday as the trough over the Ohio Valley stays nearly stationary allowing for continued deep and moist southerly flow. Will maintain likely probability of precipitation or greater through the period as there is really no period where rain is more likely than another. Given the lack of significant low level focus, it does not seem like there is a significant flooding threat, but as the week goes on, the more saturated the ground will become so the potential for flash flooding will become greater simply due to the water not being able to soak into the ground. Wednesday may be the best day for any heavy rainfall given that the upper trough will finally move eastward helping to allow for better upper forcing.
It will be very humid through the period, but not terribly warm. Highs generally in the low-mid 80s. Lows in the 70s
Long Term - Wednesday Through Sunday
As of 400pm EDT Sunday... After two days of fairly good consensus between models, the most recent 12z GFS/EURO runs have diverged in their solutions Days 5-7 and beyond. Thursday will start off wet, especially in the Northern Neck and Delmarva. The GFS initiates afternoon convection across much of the area, especially along and west of I-95 on Thursday...while the EURO lingers a low-end rain chance along and east of I-95. Went with a GFS-favored solution to begin the day, but trended more towards the EURO Thursday night by tapering chance Probability of Precipitation eastward along/east of the I-95 corridor. Friday, the best opportunity for rain will be across extreme SE VA/NE NC, with more isolated convection further northwest. Saturday will feature scattered afternoon storms across much of the area, with action waning after sunset once again. Sunday has the potential of being the most unsettled day of next weekend, with consistent signals in the models of a developing low pressure over the Ohio Valley. This will send a modest impulse of mid-upper level energy eastward into our area, sparking thunderstorms across the Piedmont that move towards the coast during the afternoon and evening hours.
Ensembles indicate the potential for a continued pattern of troughiness/wet weather across much of the mid-Atlantic through at least the beginning of next week. The typical "oven-baked" July temperatures that we can experience this time of year will not be an issue for now...as 850mb remain a consistent 16-18 degC. In other words, afternoon 2m temps will remain in the upper 80s/around 90 degF for Thurs-Sun, so no extreme heat to worry about. Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s carry us into the start of the next work week
As of 330pm EDT Sunday... Latest analysis shows surface low pressure and an upr-level trough stationed off to the west, allowing for deep S/SE flow over the fa. Will continue inherited headlines with this forecast package...Small Craft Advisories over the Bay and ocean, which have been extended through the 4th period with not much pattern change expected through mid week. For now left out the rivers and Sound as it looks quite marginal, but will monitor for potential Small Craft Advisory issuance there as well. Winds mainly 15-25 kt over the Bay/ocean, with 3-5 ft waves over the Bay and seas up to 6-8 ft over the ocean. Again, the pattern persists through midweek with a SSE wind of at least 10-20kt continuing along with seas remaining aob 5ft. Small Craft Advisories conditions are likely to be extended in future updates for portions of the marine area, esp over the ocean
Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 330pm EDT Sunday... Similar setup as yesterday, with minor flooding likely during the higher astronomical tide tonight, primarily along the Bay side of the Lwr MD Ern Shore and the tidal Potomac and Bay adjacent to the Northern Neck.
A High Risk of rip currents will continue through Monday for the northern beaches, with a Moderate Risk for the southern beaches today increasing to a High Risk for Mon. Dangerous shorebreak also continues
As of 320pm EDT Saturday... KDOX radar is inoperable due to a failure of the motor. All parts will not arrive until Tuesday July 24. Return to service is unknown at this time
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5am EDT Monday for MDZ021>023. NC...Flash Flood Watch until 5am EDT Monday for NCZ014>017-031-032- 102. VA...Flash Flood Watch until 5am EDT Monday for VAZ064-075>078- 083>086-090-095>098-517>525.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2am EDT Monday for VAZ075-077- 078.
Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634- 650-652-654-656-658.