VA-NC border to Currituck Beach Light, NC out 20 nm Marine Forecast
| Through 7 Pm...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: E 3 Ft At 11 Seconds. |
| Tonight...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: E 3 Ft At 11 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 3 Seconds. |
| Thu...S Winds 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And E 3 Ft At 11 Seconds. |
| Thu Night...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 4 Ft At 5 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 10 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Fri...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 15 Kt In The Morning. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 5 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Fri Night...S Winds 5 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Sat...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Sat Night...Se Winds 5 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Sun...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Showers Likely, Mainly In The Morning. |
| Sun Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 257pm EDT Wednesday September 24 2025 Synopsis High pressure slides farther offshore this afternoon through Thursday bringing very warm temperatures and more humid conditions. A slow moving cold front moves into the area Thursday night and Friday, with an upper trough settling over the Southeast by the weekend. This will bring more unsettled conditions late this week into the weekend. Near Term - Until 6am Thursday Morning As of 300pm EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Mainly dry and rather warm this afternoon with some early evening showers and thunderstorms possible north and northwest of the Richmond metro. An expansive surface high is centered in the western North Atlantic, which has resulted in southerly flow across the area. Temperatures and atmospheric moisture have responded by increasing to above normal for this time of year. PW values (Precipitable Water values) range between 1.4-1.7", and dew points are the upper 60s to lower 70s. Temperatures have risen into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees, with temps of 80-85F being measured across the Eastern Shore. Aloft, an upper ridge is set up across the subtropical western Atlantic. To our west, a longwave trough extends from the Central Plains through eastern Canada with a closed low centered over the Great Lakes region. There is WSW flow aloft ahead of the upper trough from the Mid-South through the Ohio Valley, with several shortwave features noted within the broader flow. WSW flow aloft will prevail through tonight with much of the local area under the influence of an upper ridge across the subtropical western Atlantic. Weak shortwave energy sliding north of the region could trigger a early evening showers/thunderstorms across the northern tier of the area, with Probability of Precipitation mainly 20-40% for these locations, and locally 30-50% for the NW Piedmont. Otherwise, partly to mostly sunny for the remainder of today and rather warm for late September with highs in the mid 80s to near 90F are forecast. Partly cloudy and mainly dry conditions are expected tonight aside from some lingering showers across the north. Warm and humid with lows in the upper 60s to around 70F. Short Term - 6am Thursday Morning Through Friday Night As of 300pm EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - The upper height pattern amplifies for the second half of the week with a deep trough taking shape over the Mississippi River Valley, translating E and NE Thursday into Friday. The expansive ridge that is set up off the SE coast will remain in place through late this week. The upper low and associated trough will gradually advance eastwards over the next few days, with another upper low developing on the southwestern periphery of this trough across the Mid-South by Friday. The secondary upper low and attendant surface front will near our area Thursday and Thursday night, though the aforementioned ridge will slow the progress of this system. Thursday will be similar to today in regards to he environmental set-up and strong daytime heating, but the forcing for convective initiation will still be further north of our area while the developing upper low will still be to our southwest. Therefore, despite PW values (Precipitable Water values) 150-180% of normal (1.8 to nearly 2.0"), less coverage of heavy rain is expected Thursday and Friday as any convection should be less organized with lesser broad scale lift locally. With the lessened convective coverage expected Thursday and the continued southerly flow, temperatures will be able to mid to upper 80s to near 90 degrees in SE VA/NE NC (low to mid 80s along the Eastern Shore). Redevelopment along the frontal boundary across south-central/SE VA and NE NC is expected on Friday through Friday night. As winds shift to the west then northwest and cloud cover increases ahead of the approaching front on Friday, temperatures will not be quite as high as Thursday, with highs forecast to reach the lower to mid 80s. Lows Friday night will drop into the mid-upper 60s. Long Term - Saturday Through Wednesday As of 300pm EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Unsettled pattern continues this weekend into early next week with near seasonal temperatures. The upper trough lingers across the eastern U.S. with the closed upper low slowly making its way towards the Mid-Atlantic through Sunday. This will keep unsettled weather across our area through the weekend, with increasing chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Well above normal PW values (Precipitable Water values) will remain in place this weekend, so any developing showers may produce heavy rainfall which will bring much needed rainfall to the area. The upper trough will remain over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast into early next week as high pressure builds down from Canada. Confidence in the forecast for next week is relatively low due to the complex steering pattern coupled with the unknowns of the interaction between AL93 and AL94. There is increasing confidence in tropical develop in the western north Atlantic, but consistency between models and even within individual models has been pretty low. There is a lot of uncertainty in how the pattern will set up and if there will be any impacts to the local area. The EPS ensemble has remained persistent that there will be two developing tropical systems while the GEFS is developing AL93 while AL94 entrains drier air and is overwhelmed by the other developing system. We will continue to monitor these two features over the course of the next few days. Marine As of 300pm EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - S to SSE winds increase later today-early tonight to near 15 kt with a few gusts to 20 kt likely. - Another chance of marginal SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions return Thursday into Friday night primarily for the ocean north of Cape Charles. - Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) from Friday through the weekend with unsettled marine conditions likely from the early to middle part of next week. Afternoon weather analysis shows high pressure just off the east coast, with a cold front well to our NW. Winds are S at 10-15 kt with ~3 ft seas and 1-2 ft waves. The pressure gradient tightens a bit this evening-early tonight on the back side of the high...which will result in an increase in wind of a few knots over the marine area. Wind speeds will average 15 kt during this time with a few gusts to 20 kt. Wind probs for sustained 18 kt winds remain no higher than 10- 15% through tonight...so will not issue SCAs. The southerly winds decrease by a couple of knots Thursday morning before increasing back to 10-15 kt across the bay/15-20 kt on the ocean by late Thu afternoon as the gradient tightens ahead of the approaching cold front. A few gusts to 25 kt are possible across the ocean between 6 PM- midnight Thu night. Seas build to ~4 ft with 5 ft seas possible (mainly N of Cape Charles). SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) are possible for the VA/MD coastal waters, but there is not enough confidence to issue them attm. By Friday, the front will stall over the waters leading to weaker winds with low confidence in the wind direction. By the weekend, high pressure will build in bringing benign marine conditions across the local waters. Unsettled marine conditions are likely from early-mid next week as Canadian high pressure slowly builds SE from the Great Lakes and a tropical system potentially forms to our south and tracks toward the waters. There is a large amount of uncertainty with respect to the track and strength of any tropical system that does develop. Regardless of any tropical development, a period of elevated NE winds appears possible from the early to middle part of next week. A Moderate rip risk remains in place through Thursday, dropping to low on Friday. A low to moderate rip risk is expected this weekend, with a high rip current risk likely for much of next week due to swell from any offshore system. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine None. |
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