Marine Weather Net

VA-NC border to Currituck Beach Light, NC out 20 nm Marine Forecast


REST OF TODAY

S
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TONIGHT

SE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TUE

NE
WINDS
25 - 30
KNOTS

TUE NIGHT

NE
WINDS
25 - 30
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ658 Forecast Issued: 1013 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2019

GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
Rest Of Today...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Mainly E Swell With A Dominant Period Of 10 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers Late This Morning. A Chance Of Showers This Afternoon. A Slight Chance Of Tstms Late.
Tonight...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight, Then Increasing To 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt Late. Seas Around 2 Ft With A Dominant Period Of 10 Seconds, Building To 5 To 6 Ft With A Dominant Period Of 10 Seconds Late. Showers Early In The Evening. Rain In The Late Evening And Overnight.
Tue...Ne Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Seas 8 To 10 Ft With A Dominant Period Of 7 Seconds. A Chance Of Rain In The Morning.
Tue Night...Ne Winds 25 To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 20 To 25 Kt Late. Seas 8 To 10 Ft With A Dominant Period Of 8 Seconds.
Wed...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 8 To 10 Ft With A Dominant Period Of 9 Seconds.
Wed Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 6 To 8 Ft.
Thu...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft.
Thu Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 5 Ft.
Fri...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 4 Ft.
Fri Night...S Winds 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1022am EDT Monday Mar 25 2019

Synopsis: Low pressure moves east along the Virginia-North Carolina line this afternoon while a cold front drops south across the area. Both the cold front and low pressure pushes south of the area later tonight, with high pressure over the midwest building into the mid Atlantic and northeast states into the latter half of the work week.

Near Term - Through Tonight
As of 1015am EDT Monday... Latest MSAS has the low centered over eastern TN with the cold front moving south ivof the Mason-Dixon line. Skies are pt sunny ahead of these apprchg systms with temps rising into the 50s and 60s. Some minor adjustments were made to the grids based off the latest high res data and surface obs. Pt sunny skies will become mstly cldy this aftrn with sct showers overspreading the area. Added slght chc showers across nern NC and southern VA over the next few hrs based off radar returns across central NC. Went a bit farther north with slight chance thunder later this aftrn (FVX-PTB-PHF) on south as the data support sct convection developing out ahead of the cold front. Highs mid 60s-lwr 70s west of the bay, 60-65 near the water. Beach temps along the eastern shore may actually stay in the 50s.

PVS DSCN: Rainfall will be slow to exit the region from north to south tonight with likely Probability of Precipitation in the forecast for the early overnight period, tapering down to chance and slight chance Probability of Precipitation across the southeast portion of the area by sunrise. Overnight lows will range from the mid 30s across the north and west to mid 40s SE. Northeasterly winds behind the front will increase, especially near the coast and across the tidewater region into NE NC

Short Term - Tuesday Through Thursday
ay Night
As of 400am EDT Monday... High pressure across the Midwest builds south and east on Tuesday helping to push the surface low out to sea. Daytime mixing and tight pressure gradient between the departing low and the incoming high will lead to a breezy day inland and a downright windy day near the coast where a wind advisory will likely be required, for now will mention the threat in the HWO. Otherwise, skies will begin to clear from NW to SE on Tuesday with decreasing dewpoints. Overnight low temperatures will range from the upper 20s N into the low/mid 30s S.

High pressure in control of the local weather through the rest of the work week with dry conditions and slowly moderating temperatures. Highs will increase from the mid 50s on Wednesday into the low 60s for Thursday while overnight lows moderate from the low and mid 30s Thursday morning into the low 40s by Friday morning

.Long Term - Friday Through Sunday: As of 330pm EDT Sunday... High pressure settles over the area then shifts offshore late in the week. This results in a dry period along with a slow warming trend. Lows Wednesday night in the 30s. Highs Thurs mid 50s-lwr 60s. Lows Thurs night upper 30s-mid 40s. Highs Fri lwr 60s-lwr 70s. Continued dry and mild Sat as a cold front and assctd moisture apprch but remain west of the mts. Highs mid 60s-mid 70s. Chc showers Sunday as the front crosses the area. Highs mid 60s-lwr 70s.

Marine Discussion
As of 355am EDT Monday... Latest observations and buoy reports reflect SW flow ~10-15kt across the waters this morning, w/~1026mb SFC high pressure now aligned well offshore of the Mid-Atl/Carolina coast this morning. Low pressure west of the waters over the OH/TN Valley will continue to approach the local area this morning, sliding just S/SW of the local area this afternoon/early this evening. The attendant surface cold front looks to drop across the waters from midday through the afternoon, with winds quickly turning to the NNE post-frontal. Strong north and northeast flow will follow the frontal passage with Small Craft Advisories already in place for the northern Ches Bay, rivers and coastal waters north of Parramore Island. Farther south, experimental wind wind probservations and CAMs in good agreement that winds ramp up to ~30 kt late tonight/Tuesday morning, with gusts to around 40 kt a good bet from Parramore Island south, including the lower Ches Bay and Currituck Sound through much of Tuesday. The Gale Watch previously in effect has been converted over to a Gale Warning with this forecast package for late tonight through Tuesday evening, with frequent gusts to ~35- 40 kt expected in response to sharpening pressure gradient between strong high pressure building to the west and low pressure lingering offshore.

Surface low still looks to slow/linger offshore Tuesday night and early Wednesday, allowing Small Craft Advisory into Wednesday, at least over over the lower Bay and lower James...with winds across northern waters slow to diminish into Wednesday. Over the coastal waters, quickly increasing wind waves will build seas rapidly Monday night and Tuesday, with persistent/strong NE winds building seas considerably (5-8 feet N and 6-10 feet S) on Tuesday. A High Surf Advisory will likely be needed for at least VA Beach south to Outer Banks Currituck in response to building seas during this period. Even after winds diminish with slackening pressure gradient late Wednesday, an extended period of elevated seas appear likely over the coastal waters for much of the week ahead, given prolonged onshore flow continuing through midweek. Marine conditions finally start to improve later Thursday and Friday...as high pressure builds over the southeast and winds turn offshore later Fri into Saturday

NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...Wind Advisory from 4am Tuesday to midnight EDT Tuesday night for NCZ017-102.
High Surf Advisory from 10am Tuesday to 4pm EDT Wednesday for NCZ102. VA...Wind Advisory from 4am to 6pm EDT Tuesday for VAZ095-100-525.
Wind Advisory from 4am Tuesday to midnight EDT Tuesday night for VAZ098.
High Surf Advisory from 10am Tuesday to 4pm EDT Wednesday for VAZ098.
MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory from 8pm this evening to 6pm EDT Tuesday for ANZ630-631-635>637.
Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 6pm EDT Tuesday for ANZ632-634-638-654.
Gale Warning from midnight tonight to midnight EDT Tuesday night for ANZ633-656-658.
Small Craft Advisory from 8pm this evening to 6pm EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652

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