Marine Weather Net

VA-NC border to Currituck Beach Light, NC out 20 nm Marine Forecast


TODAY

S
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
15
KNOTS

SUN

S
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

SUN NIGHT

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ658 Forecast Issued: 602 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018

Today...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft With A Dominant Period Of 8 Seconds.
Tonight...Sw Winds 15 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft With A Dominant Period Of 8 Seconds.
Sun...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft With A Dominant Period Of 8 Seconds.
Sun Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft With A Dominant Period Of 7 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Mon...S Winds 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Showers Likely In The Morning, Then Showers And Tstms Likely In The Afternoon.
Mon Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Showers And Tstms Likely, Mainly In The Evening.
Tue...S Winds 5 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon.
Tue Night...Se Winds 5 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening.
Wed...E Winds 5 Kt, Increasing To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon.
Wed Night...Se Winds 10 Kt, Diminishing To 5 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
643am EDT Sat May 26 2018

Synopsis: High pressure remains offshore through the weekend as a trough of low pressure and several weak disturbances move over the region into early next week.

Near Term - Through Tonight
As of 645am EDT Saturday... Latest surface analysis shows high pressure off the Carolina coast with a cold front across the Midwest. Aloft, there is weak SW flow over the Mid Atlc with a weak ridge off the Southeast coast. Not much in the way of forcing during the daytime, but there will be an increase in moisture profiles in conjunction with weak shortwave energy passing over NW areas where Probability of Precipitation remain at 60%. SE areas have a lower chance for shras/tstms (slight chance-chance PoPs). Main threat with any tstms will be heavy rain due to fairly weak steering flow and aforementioned moisture/PW increase...included locally heavy rainfall wording over N/NW areas. High temps in the mid/upper 80s. Shras/tstms may last through the evening hrs (especially over northern areas) before slowly diminishing overnight. Low temps mainly in the lwr 70s

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 345am EDT Saturday... Weak upper ridging aloft and southerly low-level flow will be our predominate weather pattern through Memorial Day. This will result in a continued increase in humidity locally Sunday, due to sustained southerly flow from the GOMEX, and a mainly diurnal chance of showers and thunderstorms. By Monday there are indications that a little deeper feed of sub-tropical moisture will make a run at central/eastern NC and perhaps far southern portions of VA. While locally heavy rain will be possible with the strongest tstms Sunday (PWs 1.75-2.00"), the best opportunity for widespread moderate/heavy downpours and potential flooding should hold off until Monday for the aforementioned areas as a more pronounced area of sub-tropical moisture (PWs increasing to 2.0-2.3") arrives. As far as Probability of Precipitation go, will highest Probability of Precipitation oriented over NW areas. Likely Probability of Precipitation (60%) along/north of a line from FVX-FYJ-WAL, lowering to slight chance (20%) over extreme SE VA/NE NC. By Monday, will generally have chance Probability of Precipitation everywhere (30-50%), but likely Probability of Precipitation (55-65%) along/south of VA Hwy 58.

Temps will remain warm Sunday with highs generally in the mid/upper 80s, except upper 70s to low 80s immediate coast. A bit cooler Monday with increased cloud cover and pcpn chances. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Lows remaining in the mid 60s to low 70s

Long Term - Monday Night Through Friday
As of 330pm EDT Friday... This period to be governed by the moisture and remnant low track of Sub-tropical Storm Alberto. After stalling across the Gulf States Mon, the system is forecast to drift slowly ne into the TN valley Tue/Wednesday with the remnant low pushing ne along or just east of the Applach mts Thu/Fri.

Kept low chance probability of precipitation (20-40%) across the region Monday nite thru Tues nite then increased to high chance probability of precipitation (40-50%) Wednesday thru Fri. Highs Tues mid-upper 80s, low-mid 80s Wed/Thu/Fri. Lows mid 60s-lwr 70s.

Marine Discussion
As of 225am EDT Saturday... No headlines through the weekend/Monday as SSW winds around the Bermuda hi pressure avg aob 15 kts. Seas 2-3 ft with 1-2 ft waves. Winds become SE by mid week in advance of any remnant low from Alberto...then SW behind the lows departure. Conditions to remain blo Small Craft Advisory levels

Climate
As of 345am EDT Saturday... * RIC monthly rainfall total through 5/25 is 10.25" which now ranks as the wettest May on record. (breaking the old record of 9.79" in 2016). (Precipitation records date back to 1880).

* SBY monthly rainfall total through 5/25 is 8.63" which already ranks as 3rd wettest May on record (wettest is 10.38" in 1948). (Precipitation records date back to 1906)

NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None

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