Marine Weather Net

VA-NC border to Currituck Beach Light, NC out 20 nm Marine Forecast


THROUGH 7 AM

SW
WINDS
15
KNOTS

TODAY

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

S
WINDS
10
KNOTS

MON

NW
WINDS
10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ658 Forecast Issued: 410 AM EDT Sun May 26 2019

Through 7 Am...Sw Winds 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft With A Dominant Period Of 9 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Today...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming S 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft With A Dominant Period Of 8 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms Early In The Morning.
Tonight...S Winds 10 Kt, Becoming W Late. Seas Around 3 Ft. Mainly E Swell With A Dominant Period Of 11 Seconds.
Mon...Nw Winds 10 Kt, Becoming Ne In The Afternoon. Seas Around 3 Ft. Mainly E Swell With A Dominant Period Of 12 Seconds.
Mon Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. Mainly E Swell With A Dominant Period Of 10 Seconds.
Tue...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft.
Tue Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft.
Wed...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Wed Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Thu...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Thu Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA
447am EDT Sunday May 26 2019

Synopsis: A warm front will push east and off the coast this morning. A weak cold front will drop across the region tonight into Memorial Day before return back north of the area on Tuesday, followed by a big warm up for the remainder of the week.

Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
As of 415am EDT Sunday... Isolated to sctd showers and tstms associated with a warm front were pushing thru extrm ern/sern counties early this morning. This pcpn and warm front will slide off the coast later this morning. Otherwise, the sky was clear to partly cloudy over the area with temps ranging fm the upper 60s to mid 70s.

The upper ridge is back over the area for much of today, as a cold front is well to the north. This should lead to hot and mostly sunny conditions across the region. But will need to watch for developing convective complexes to the NNW, as a couple shortwave troughs slide across the northern periphery of the ridge. This may allow some additional storms to move into extrm northern counties very late this afternoon into early this evening. Highs will range fm the upper 80s to mid 90s for most areas, but a bit cooler near the water

Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through Tuesday
As of 425am EDT Sunday... With the upper level ridge getting knocked back south a little because of a few shortwave troughs, more convection is possible tonight into Mon, as the frontal boundary pushes back to the south. Expecting the best chances for showers/tstms to drop into most of the region, will be after 8 pm this evening. The highest chances will be across the northern half of the area, with 30-40% PoPs at this time. This activity will move ESE down thru most of the CWA this evening into early Monday morning. Storm Prediction Center has our northern half of the CWA in a slight risk for severe tstms, with damaging winds and large hail the primary threats.

The front will remain south of the area during Mon, with a partly to mostly sunny sky and not as hot temps expected. Mainly just a slight chance for a shower or tstm. Highs on Monday will range thru the 80s to near 90, cooler near the water.

The warm front will lift back north across the area Monday night into Tuesday morning. Limited forcing expected with the boundary, but will still carry a slight or sml chance of a shower or tstm. The front will push ENE of the region on Tue, with a lingering slight/sml chance of pcpn mainly in the morning in the ENE. Otherwise, partly to mostly sunny with highs mostly ranging fm the mid 80s to lower 90s

Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Saturday
As of 415pm EDT Saturday... The story for the extended period will be the heat across the region. An upper level ridge remains in control at the start of the forecast period, amplifying across the region on Wednesday. With WSW to SW downsloping flow during the day and 850mb temps in the 20-23C range, expect temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 90s across much of the area on Wednesday. Temperatures may even touch 100 degrees, especially across far southern portions of the FA. Our one saving grace is that dewpoints look to generally stay in the lower to mid 60s on Wednesday, so am not expecting heat indices to be much of a factor. A stray shower or storm could also potentially limit daytime highs on Wednesday, though with an amplifying ridge aloft and building high pressure at the surface am expect any shower potential to be very limited. Low temperatures on Wednesday night only drop into the low to mid 70s.

By Thursday, the upper level ridge axis begins to break down/push east of the local area as a more potent shortwave develops and moves across the Midwest and Great Lakes. Thursday will likely be another very hot day with temperatures making it up into the mid 90s across much of the area. Shower and thunderstorm chances will be on the increase as the shortwave and associated cold front approach and cross the region late Thursday into early Friday. This boundary then stalls/lingers near to just south of the region into the weekend bringing the potential for more unsettled conditions. Temperatures cool down slightly Friday into the weekend, but are still expected to remain above average as highs in the mid to upper 80s are anticipated.

Marine Discussion
As of 345am EDT Sunday... Weak frontal boundary has been the focus for ongoing convection early this morning and has made the synoptic wind field rather chaotic. Have extended the Small Craft Advisory headlines for the Bay/lower James through 7 am given storms in the area and winds that will be gusting to 20-25 kt. Waves are around 2 ft in the bay with seas 3-4 ft on the coastal waters.

Winds shift to the WSW around 10 kt by later this morning, then potentially become variable at only around 5 kt midday, before turning onshore and to the SE, increasing to ~10 kt by late afternoon and this evening. Another (weak) front drops through later tonight into Monday with tstms possible and winds then becoming NW and veering to the NE for Memorial Day. Some modestly cooler air in the wake of this front but not enough for winds much more than 10-15 kt. Winds then turn back around to the S Monday night though Tue/Wed

Climate
As of 345am EDT Sunday... * Records for Today/Sunday 5/26:

* Richmond: 94 (1991) (Record high min 70 in 2011) * Norfolk: 98 (1880) (Record high min 74 in 2011) * Salisbury: 92 (2011) (Record high min 69 in 1984) * Eliz City: 95 (1953) (Record high min 74 in 2011)



* Number of Days of 90F+ in May:

* Site Avg 2019 (thru 5/25) Most (Year)

* Richmond: 2 days 3 days 11 days (1962) * Norfolk: 2 days 2 days 13 days (1880) * Salisbury: 1 day none so far 7 days (1991) * Eliz City: 2 days 4 days 9 days (1944)

Equipment
As of 400am EDT Sunday... KAKQ 88D radar is offline due to a transmitter error. Technicians are awaiting parts for needed repairs. No return to service time is available. See FTMAKQ for details

NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.
MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory until 7am EDT this morning for ANZ630>632-634-638

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