VA-NC border to Currituck Beach Light, NC out 20 nm Marine Forecast
|Through 7 Pm...Se Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Seas 11 To 14 Ft With A Dominant Period Of 8 Seconds. Rain.|
|Tonight...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming W 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts To 35 Kt After Midnight. Seas 10 To 12 Ft With A Dominant Period Of 10 Seconds, Subsiding To 6 To 8 Ft With A Dominant Period Of 10 Seconds. A Chance Of Light Rain And Drizzle Early In The Evening.|
|Fri...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Late Morning And Afternoon. Seas 6 To 8 Ft With A Dominant Period Of 9 Seconds, Subsiding To 5 To 6 Ft With A Dominant Period Of 9 Seconds In The Afternoon.|
|Fri Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft With A Dominant Period Of 9 Seconds.|
|Sat...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. Mainly E Swell With A Dominant Period Of 9 Seconds.|
|Sat Night...Ne Winds 5 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
|Sun...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
|Sun Night...Se Winds 5 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
|Mon...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
|Mon Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
423pm EST Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis: Low pressure will along the mid-Atlantic coast tonight...toward new England by early Friday. High pressure returns late tonight into Friday and remains over the region through the weekend.
Near Term - Until 6am Friday Morning
AS OF 325pm EST THURSDAY... Latest weather analysis reveals deepening surface low pressre offshore of the E NC coast. Aloft, strong mid/upper low continues to slide NE across the Ohio Valley toward the interior northeast. Surface low pressure will continue to lift along the Mid-Atlantic coast this evening, to a positon off just south of Long Island by late tonight/early Friday morning. Rain already in the process of tapering off across the area, with IR/WV composite showing one last batch of heavier showers pushing across the area at 20z. Behind this feature, will see some periodic light rain or drizzle as mid-level drying ensues, with probability of precipitation turning off tonight as the upper system tracks to the north across the northern Mid-Atlantic. Clearing is expected SW-NE late as drier air arrives with lows ranging from the low 30s W to the low/mid 40s along the coast
.SHORT TERM /6am FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 325pm EST THURSDAY... Upper level low will eject NE across the northeast toward New England through the day Friday. Resultant W-SW downslope flow will help to quickly scour out clouds Friday morning. Meanwhile, surface high pressure rebuilds from the west late Friday into Saturday, bringing a mostly clear/sunny sky late Friday into the weekend. Weak Cold Air Advection at the surface will maintain temperatures near or just below seasonal averages. Highs Friday generally in the 50s Friday/Saturday and lows in the 30s inland to low 40s for coastal SE VA/NE NC Saturday morning.
High pressure at the surface builds overhead into the upcoming weekend, with a quieter, quasi-zonal flow aloft bringing a dry, quiet weather weekend across the local area. Maxima do moderate slowly from Friday through Sunday, but temperatures look to remain at or just below climo norms. Expect highs generally in the 50s to near 60 with early morning lows generally into the low to mid 30s inland to around 40 at the coast
Long Term - Sunday Night Through Thursday
AS OF 345pm EST THURSDAY... Much quieter weather still on track for much of next week. A weak upper-level shortwave approaches the area late Sunday-Monday (coupled with a surface cold front). Not much in the way of rain expected with the FROPA, but have slight chance Probability of Precipitation for coastal NE NC from 06-18z Mon. Looks like the bulk of the rain will fall well offshore after the front crosses the CWA by Monday aftn. Behind the front, surface high pressure settles just west of the region Monday night- Tue. However, am only expecting temperatures to drop to slightly below average. A weak shortwave caught in NW flow aloft is forecast to swing through the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday (coupled with another cold front). However, moisture will be lacking across the area, so this will be another (mainly) dry FROPA. Canadian high pressure then settles over the region on Wednesday night-Thuam before moving offshore by the end of the day on Thu.
The cooler air lags behind the front a bit, so highs on Monday will still be in the 50s to near 60. Cooler on Tue/Wed, with highs in the upper 40s to near 50 north/mid 50s south. Warming back up into the 50s area-wide on Thu. Lows Monday night in the low-mid 30s inland/around 40 in coastal SE VA-NE NC. Cooler on both Tuesday and Wednesday night with lows ranging from near 30 NW to the mid-upper 30s SE.
AS OF 400pm EST THURSDAY... Low pressure now lifting into eastern NC and will push off the VA Capes this evening. Strong E/NE winds continue north of the surface low, while winds are diminishing in the southern waters. Headlines have generally remained as they were although extended the gales through 7 pm for the lower James (this now matches the end time for the York/Rappahannock). Gales are in effect through Fri morning for the entire Bay and all coastal waters to cover gusts to 35-40 kt in the west winds overnight. Seas have risen to ~15 ft at buoy 44100 and to 12 ft at 44099 and these higher seas will translate north over the next few hrs. Expect seas to hit 15 ft or higher later this evening at buoy 44009 off Fenwick.
Mentioned in the MWW that winds may occasionally gust to 50 kt over the northern coastal waters before the winds diminish later this evening. Winds and seas will remain elevated with SCA headlines needed after the Gales expire at various times tonight or on Fri. CALMER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BACK OVER THE REGION
AS OF 330pm EST THURSDAY... River flood warnings remain in effect for Stony Creek on the Nottoway, and Mattoax on the Appomattox, Lawrenceville on the Meherrin and Sebrell on the Nottoway. Expect additional rises and possible warnings on local rivers given the expected rainfall Thursday
Tides / Coastal Flooding
AS OF 1215pm EST THURSDAY... STRONG E/NE WINDS PREVAIL AND TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE RISING RATHER QUICKLY AS EXPECTED. BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS, HAVE RAISED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF THE JAMES RIVER FROM SURRY TO SUFFOLK. CLOSER TO THE BAY AS WELL AS IN AREAS FARTHER NORTH, DEPARTURES ARE IN GENERAL SLIGHTLY LOWER BUT WILL STILL BE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS WITH THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. ISSUED A COUPLE OF COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS TO HIGHLIGHT THESE AREAS FROM SEWELLS PT UP THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAY TO LEWISETTA.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS TO IN CASE ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES ARE NEEDED FOR THE ATLANTIC SIDE EASTERN SHORE THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WOULD NOT BE UNTIL THE FOLLOWING HIGH TIDE OVERNIGHT/EARLY FRI
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...High Surf Advisory until 7am EST Friday for MDZ025.
Wind Advisory until 10pm EST this evening for MDZ024-025. NC...High Surf Advisory until 1am EST Friday for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9pm EST this evening for VAZ089- 093-096.
High Surf Advisory until 1am EST Friday for VAZ098.
High Surf Advisory until 7am EST Friday for VAZ099-100.
Wind Advisory until 10pm EST this evening for VAZ099.
Wind Advisory until 7pm EST this evening for VAZ100.
Gale Warning until 10am EST Friday for ANZ650-652-654.
Gale Warning until 7am EST Friday for ANZ630>632-634-656-658.
Gale Warning until 7pm EST this evening for ANZ633-635-636- 638.
Small Craft Advisory until 10am EST Friday for ANZ637.