VA-NC border to Currituck Beach Light, NC out 20 nm Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 3 Ft At 8 Seconds And Sw 2 Ft At 3 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Tonight...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Late Evening And Overnight. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft, Building To 5 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 9 Ft After Midnight. Wave Detail: N 3 Ft At 6 Seconds And E 1 Foot At 3 Seconds, Becoming Ne 5 Ft At 5 Seconds And Ne 2 Ft At 11 Seconds. |
| Fri...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming E 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 5 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 9 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 5 Ft At 6 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 11 Seconds. |
| Fri Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 7 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 4 Ft At 8 Seconds And Ne 4 Ft At 11 Seconds. A Chance Of Rain In The Evening. |
| Sat...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 4 Ft At 11 Seconds And Ne 3 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
| Sat Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Ne 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 4 Ft At 6 Seconds And Ne 2 Ft At 11 Seconds. |
| Sun...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 7 Ft. |
| Sun Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 7 Ft. |
| Mon...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Afternoon. |
| Mon Night...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 7 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Evening. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 109pm EST Thu Dec 25 2025 Synopsis A backdoor cold front moves across the region this evening, and pushes south of the area overnight as strong high pressure builds into Quebec. Cold and damp conditions prevail Friday. The weekend turns a bit warmer, but will be variably cloudy and unsettled. A strong cold front crosses the area on Monday bringing another round of showers, followed with dry and much colder conditions through midweek. Near Term - Through Tonight As of 310am EST Thursday... Key Messages: - A warm Christmas Day for most of the area, with a chance for (mainly) morning showers. The latest Wx analysis indicates weakening surface high pressure across the local area, with low pressure off to our NW over IN/OH. NW flow prevails aloft on the NE edge of a broad upper ridge centered over the south-central CONUS. A fast moving shortwave is forecast to move SE and push through southern VA and eastern NC this morning, bringing just enough lift and moisture for scattered showers (PoPs 30-40% for most). Overall, Quantitative Precipitation Forecast will average less than 0.10" and most of the showers should be ending by late morning in the piedmont, and by early afternoon to the east as the wave aloft pushes off the Carolina coast. Mostly cloudy skies on average this morning, with partly/variably cloudy skies this afternoon. With decent mixing and SW winds shifting to the W, have gone a few degrees warmer than the NBM for highs, blending in the HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) which has performed quite well over the past few days. Highs will range from the upper 60s/near 70F over south central VA and much of NE NC, to the lower 50s on the MD eastern shore, with most of the region in the low-mid 60s, or about 10-15 degrees above normal. Behind the system, strong (near 1035mb) high pressure builds over Quebec, pushing the backdoor cold front well south of the area overnight. As the strong surface high ridges south, clearing skies prevail with a much colder and drier airmass settling south. Lows tonight will range from the mid 20s on the MD eastern shore to the mid-upper 30s across southern VA and NE NC. Short Term - Friday Through Saturday Night As of 320am EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Chilly Friday in the wake of a backdoor cold front. Rain chances increase in the afternoon and evening, with some mixed wintry precipitation generally confined to the far north. The latest model suite continues in good overall agreement that surface low pressure moves rapidly east from northern IL to the upper OH Valley by late Friday. With strong surface high pressure anchored over eastern Canada, Friday will be characterized by "wedge" conditions (CAD). The model trends show a slightly slower arrival of overrunning moisture (with surface pressure falls not starting until late morning or early afternoon. This will lead to mainly dry conditions in the morning, with light rain and/or drizzle not really developing for most of the area until the afternoon. This will allow for enough airmass modification to bring mainly just rain to the CWA, though there still appears to be a window for rain/snow changing to sleet across the MD eastern shore (and rain/sleet over northern zones W of the Bay). Given the warmth of the past few days, little to no impacts are anticipated and some of the models continue to trend even slower and farther north with little in the way of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast into the region (just a few hundredths through 00Z/Sat). The only locations that has much of a chance for any accumulation of snow/sleet (~0.1-0.2") is the MD eastern shore. With the widespread clouds and precipitation, highs will likely struggle to get out of the upper 30s for much of the northern tier of the area with 40-45F for most of the CWA (County Warning Area) (mid-upper 40s to near 50F in NE NC and southside Hampton Roads). The initial surface low weakens over the upper OH Valley late Friday, with secondary low pressure developing off the VA- NC coast Friday night (miller B setup). The higher Quantitative Precipitation Forecast will be Friday night (0.25" to locally 0.50+") for areas closer to the coast. However, by this time the stronger onshore flow brings milder Atlantic influence so all of this will become just rain with temperatures well above freezing. For Saturday, the wedge airmass lingers early in the day, especially across northeastern portions of the area. There will likely be a sharp temperature gradient with highs only in the 40s across NE portions of the area and the lower 60s over the far S/SW. A light rain shower/drizzle cannot be ruled out across the MD Eastern Shore Saturday morning, but generally dry conditions elsewhere, with a partly sunny sky along and S of I-64. Clouds increase Sat night with lows ranging from near 30F NE to the upper 30s/around 40F in NE NC. Long Term - Sunday Through Wednesday As of 345am EST Thursday... Key Messages: - A strong cold front is now delayed until Monday, with the highest coverage of showers Sunday night into Monday aftn. - Markedly colder conditions Monday night through midweek. The central CONUS ridge finally translates east by Sunday, but as the next area of low pressure translates rapidly NE from the mid-MS Valley to the Great Lakes with a surface ridge in place, overrunning moisture returns, bringing a mostly cloudy day with highs near to a little above normal. The bulk of the precip stays N of the region through the day, with Probability of Precipitation then increasing Sunday night and Monday as the cold front finally moves in from the NW. Will have high chance to likely Probability of Precipitation Monday, though this appears to be a setup where deeper moisture does not cross the Appalachians (so Quantitative Precipitation Forecast amounts look fairly low at this time). The slower timing will keep the colder airmass delayed, with above normal temperatures both Sunday night and Monday (highs Monday in the 60s for most of the area). Much colder Monday night through Wednesday as a deep upper trough develops over the eastern CONUS. At this time, highs look to be mostly in the 30s Tuesday, and in the low-mid 40s Wed. Lows mainly in the 20s. Dry conditions prevail. Marine As of 100pm EST Thursday... Key Messages: - SCA (Small Craft Advisory) is in now effect for the lower James River as SW winds have become gusts near shore. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the coastal waters, Chesapeake Bay, and Currituck Sound tonight through Friday as winds become north and increase. - SCA (Small Craft Advisory) are possible Saturday as waves increase from weak offshore low pressure develops. - Gale conditions are possible Monday night into Tuesday with a strong cold front. Low pressure was located well to the northeast this afternoon with southwest flow ahead of the next cold front. Winds have become gusty near shore with mixing with gusts to 15 to 25 kt near shore over the James River and the lower Bay. These gusty winds do not extend far from the western and southern shores due to the lack of mixing over the cold water. A strong surge of colder air is expected behind a cold front tonight. Winds this evening will shift to the north and stronger Cold Air Advection will increase winds to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the coastal waters, Ches. Bay and Currituck Sound generally from 7PM to 7AM Friday. Seas will rapidly increase late tonight/early Friday to 4-6 ft, possibly to 7 ft south of the VA/NC border. Although elevated seas may linger through most of Friday mainly south of Cape Charles, due to an onshore wind component, wind speeds will quickly decrease Friday afternoon and remain sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) through the weekend. Another period of onshore flow could increase seas to 4-6 ft late Saturday into Sunday, although winds are forecast to be 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the coastal waters. Gale conditions are possible next week associated with a stronger cold front. Elevated winds and seas will develop Monday night and persist into Tuesday behind the strong cold front. Strong Cold Air Advection behind the front could lead gale conditions. Local wind probs have a 40% chance of gusts to 34 kt Monday night into Tuesday, as well as ensemble models supporting the possibility of gale force gusts. Winds with this system will continued to be monitored and fine tuned with subsequent forecasts as probabilities will likely increase in time. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 7pm this evening to 7am EST Friday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 10pm this evening to 10am EST Friday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST Friday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory from 7pm this evening to 1pm EST Friday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 10pm this evening to 4pm EST Friday for ANZ656-658. |
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