VA-NC border to Currituck Beach Light, NC out 20 nm Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw Late. Seas Around 2 Ft. Mainly N Swell With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds.|
|Thu...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Late Morning And Early Afternoon, Then Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt Late. Seas Around 2 Ft. Dominant Period 5 Seconds.|
|Thu Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Dominant Period 4 Seconds.|
|Fri...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw 5 To 10 Kt Late. Seas Around 2 Ft. Dominant Period 4 Seconds.|
|Fri Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 4 Seconds.|
|Sat...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft.|
|Sat Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 5 Ft, Subsiding To 3 Ft In The Afternoon.|
|Sun Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
213am EST Thu Jan 21 2021
Low pressure tracks across the deep south Thursday and Friday. Canadian high pressure builds in from the northwest over the weekend.
Near Term - Until 6am This Morning
As of 825pm EST Wednesday... Clear skies/light wind has allowed temps to quickly drop into the upper 20s - mid 30s since sunset. Given current dew points, temps will cont to drop until the clouds from the low to the south move E-NE across the southern half of the fa after midnight. Lows in the 20s to near 30 se beach areas.
.SHORT TERM /6am THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 330am EST Wednesday... Models have come into somewhat better agreement regarding surface and upper level features on Thursday. The GFS remains the farthest north with precipitation potential but the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and GEM have nudged northward with their 12z runs. Kept Probability of Precipitation in the silent range (<15%) along the southern quarter of the CWA but a light shower or two is possible in these areas Thursday morning. Otherwise, expect an increase in clouds Thursday morning as low pressure passes by to the south. Decreasing sky cover by the afternoon with temperatures rising into the low/mid 50s. Not as cold Thursday night with lows in the 30s.
Deeper moisture remains suppressed to the south on Friday with high temps in the upper 40s and low 50s under partly cloudy skies. Dry frontal passage and decreasing cloud cover Friday night will allow overnight low temps to fall into the mid 20s for the Eastern Shore and along/west of I-95 with upper 20s and low 30s elsewhere. High pressure builds into the region on Saturday with NW winds. High temps struggle to hit the 40 degree mark across the north with low and mid 40s to the south.
Long Term - Saturday Night Through Wednesday
As of 345pm EST Wednesday... The general consensus for the medium range period continues to show good agreement with a cold dry pattern Sat night and Sunday, with with unsettled conditions Monday into at least the early portion of Tue. Beginning Sat night, the 12Z/20 models all depict strong surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes/upper OH Valley, moving SE across the local area by Sunday morning. This will bring a mostly clear/cold night with lows mainly 20-25F inland and in the upper 20s/around 30F near the coast in SE VA/NE NC (some upper teens will be possible in the Piedmont and MD eastern shore). Sunny to start Sunday, with a partly cloudy afternoon with highs mostly in the lower to mid 40s as the surface high slowly weakens over the local area and mid/high clouds approach from the W ahead of the next system.
From Sunday night through Tue, the operational models still show some fairly significant differences as well as continuity issues (particularly the 12Z/20 ECMWF which now has a surface low track farther N). While confidence is high enough for likely PoPs Monday into Monday night, confidence is much lower regarding exact timing as well as p-type issues at the onset on the precipitation early Monday morning as well as Monday night into Tuesday (at least over the N). Overall, the operational models as well as the ensembles suggest little to no chance for wintry precipitation across the SE 1/2 of the CWA aside except perhaps at the initial onset through 12Z Mon. Farther N, the latest EPS (Euro Ensemble) still shows a 50% or greater chance for at least 1" of snow across about the northern 1/3 of the CWA. Given the continued model spread and lack of continuity, have made only some minor tweak to the going forecast, bringing in chance Probability of Precipitation from W to E prior to 12Z/Mon, then spreading in likely Probability of Precipitation from W to E through the day Monday (with likely Probability of Precipitation then diminishing from W to E Monday night/Early tue morning). P-type will be mainly snow or rain/snow at the onset early Mon, then mainly just rain Monday aftn/Monday evening, with some mix back to snow possible again across the N into early Tuesday morning.
For temps, lows Sunday night upper 20s- lwr 30s, but with steady or rising temps overnight after a rapid dropoff Sunday evening. Highs Monday in the 40s (except lower 50s SE). Lows in the 30s to lower 40s Mon night, highs Tuesday in the 40s N to lower 50s S. Probability of Precipitation average 50-60% Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Latest trends are for drying conditions from the N later Tuesday and Wed, but given a progressive pattern, confidence in this is also fairly low. GFS develops a coastal system by Wednesday night/Thu, while the ECMWF is dry. Will just show increasing clouds late Wednesday but keep it mainly dry for now.
As of 405pm EST Wednesday... Winds will continue to decrease this afternoon through early tonight as high pressure currently over the southern Plains builds toward the SE CONUS. Have ended SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) for the lower bay, the rivers (except the Lower James), and the Currituck Sound. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) will end at 22z for the Lower James, 23z for the southern coastal waters, 00z for the upper bay, and 02z for the northern coastal waters. Winds are primarily NW 15 to 20 kts with gusts to 25 kts over areas under SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) with 10 to 15 kts elsewhere. Expect winds to become NNW this evening 10 to 15 kt before shifting to SW/SSW late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Seas drop below 5 ft tonight in areas under SCAs. Waves drop to 1 to 2 ft and seas drop to 2 to 3 ft late tonight.
The pressure gradient tightens a bit on Thursday as another area of low pressure tracks eastward across Ontario/Quebec. As a result, SW winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 kt (highest over the ocean). Waves/seas likely stay just below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria on Thursday. Could see marginal SCA (Small Craft Advisory) gusts for much of Thu. However, confidence is too low at this time to issue SCAs. Winds turn to the W and diminish a bit Thu night/Friam before another cold front moves off the coast Friday with decent Cold Air Advection in its wake Fri night/Sat AM. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) will likely be needed Fri night-Sat following the FROPA due to NW flow. Sub SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions likely for Sunday through Monday night. Uncertainty increases Monday night through next week dependent upon the track of lows.
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.