VA-NC border to Currituck Beach Light, NC out 20 nm Marine Forecast
| Tonight...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt Late. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 9 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 5 Ft At 5 Seconds And E 1 Foot At 11 Seconds. |
| Fri...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt In The Late Morning And Early Afternoon, Then Becoming Sw Late. Seas 4 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 7 Ft, Subsiding To 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 4 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 1 Foot At 9 Seconds. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 3 Ft At 3 Seconds And Ne 3 Ft At 7 Seconds. A Chance Of Rain And Snow In The Evening. |
| Sat...Nw Winds 35 To 40 Kt With Gusts Up To 45 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft, Occasionally To 10 Ft, Building To 7 To 9 Ft, Occasionally To 13 Ft In The Afternoon. Wave Detail: Nw 7 Ft At 5 Seconds And E 3 Ft At 8 Seconds, Becoming N 9 Ft At 7 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Sat Night...Nw Winds 35 To 40 Kt With Gusts Up To 45 Kt. Seas 8 To 10 Ft, Occasionally To 15 Ft. Wave Detail: N 10 Ft At 7 Seconds And E 1 Foot At 10 Seconds. Light Freezing Spray. |
| Sun...Nw Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt, Diminishing To 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 7 To 9 Ft, Occasionally To 13 Ft. Wave Detail: N 8 Ft At 8 Seconds And E 1 Foot At 11 Seconds. Light Freezing Spray In The Morning. |
| Sun Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 5 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 9 Ft. |
| Mon...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 7 Ft. |
| Mon Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 15 Kt In The Evening. Seas Around 4 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. |
| Tue...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. |
| Tue Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas Around 3 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 402pm EST Thu Feb 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A very light (<0.5") accumulation of snow possible late Friday into Friday night. Winds have been increased slightly on Saturday, and a High Wind Watch has been issued for the Eastern Shore, with additional wind headlines likely for areas east of I-95. An Extreme Cold Watch has been issued for the Eastern Shore as wind chills are forecast to drop to as low as -10F. Additional Cold Weather headlines are expected Saturday night across the remainder of the area. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A clipper system may bring light snow to parts of the area late Friday/Friday night. 2) Windy and brutally cold conditions are expected Friday night through Sunday morning. Both a High Wind Watch (wind gusts of 50-55 mph expected) and an Extreme Cold Watch (wind chills approaching -10F) have been issued for the Eastern Shore Saturday/Saturday night. Additional wind and cold weather advisories will likely be needed during this timeframe. 3) Warmer temperatures, likely going a little above normal for the 1st time in nearly 15 days, are expected next week. As of 257pm EST Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1...A clipper system may bring light snow to parts of the area late Friday/Friday night. A deep trough aloft is forecast to amplify and drop SE from the Hudson Bay Friday. A clipper system will cross the area Friday afternoon through Friday night, potentially bringing a combination of rain, rain/snow mix, and light snow to the area. Temperatures will rise well above freezing (upper 30s-around 40F) prior to the onset of the precipitation on Friday. However, once the lowest levels saturate, temperatures drop to 32-34F and precipitation should be in the form of snow along and north of I-64. Rain or a rain/snow mix is expected farther south, with potentially just rain falling in S VA and NE NC for a majority of the event. Additionally, precipitation intensity will be light, so even if it does snow for a few hrs, not expecting any travel impacts given temps at or above freezing. The track of the shortwave still suggests that the best chances will be north of I-64 (and especially across the northern Neck and eastern shore. Global ensembles have a mean of a few tenths of an inch, with no higher than 10-20% probs for 1" across far northern portions of the area. KEY MESSAGE 2...Windy and brutally cold conditions are expected Friday night through Sunday morning. Both a High Wind Watch (wind gusts of 50-55 mph expected) and an Extreme Cold Watch (wind chills approaching -10F) have been issued for the Eastern Shore Saturday/Saturday night. Additional wind and cold weather advisories will likely be needed during this timeframe. A surface low is forecast to develop Friday off the Carolina coast and will rapidly deepen to a strong ~980 mb low pressure system by Saturday evening. Rapid pressure rises are expected as this low lifts further offshore on Saturday as high pressure will dive down through Great Lakes region. Additionally, forecast soundings across the area indicate that strong winds will be able mix down to the surface Saturday through Saturday evening. A High Wind Watch has been issued for the Eastern Shore due to the longer duration of 50- 55 mph gusts expected. Wind Advisories are likely for areas along and east of I-95, where gusts of 35-50 mph are possible (highest gusts closest to the coast). There is high confidence that the clipper system will usher in a reinforcing shot of very cold air. This will result in another cold (though mainly dry) weekend with temperatures well below normal. While much colder than normal area- wide are forecast, the setup will really favor the coldest conditions over the NE with highs only in the 20s Sat-Sun, as south central VA and interior NE NC see highs into the mid 30s. Lows drop into the teens (potentially upper single digits north) Saturday night with breezy to windy conditions continuing (especially near the coast). Wind chills during the day Saturday will struggle to make it out of the single digits across the north and the teens in the south as winds quickly ramp up. Along the Eastern Shore, wind chills are forecast to drop to -10F Saturday night, so an Extreme Cold Watch has been issued. Other areas along the coast and in the NE counties may see marginal conditions for an Extreme Cold Watch, so the current Watch may need to be expanded in subsequent forecasts if deemed necessary. Otherwise, Cold Weather Advisories are likely for the remainder of the area Saturday night and may be necessary through the day on Saturday in some areas. KEY MESSAGE 3...Warmer temperatures, likely going a little above normal for the 1st time in nearly 15 days, are expected next week. After another very cold weekend, and what has been a significant cold stretch, the upper level pattern finally appears to show a bit of an upper level ridge expanding north from the Gulf into the SE CONUS Tue-Wed. Temperatures well into the 50s, and possibly even warmer, are expected at least for much of VA and NE NC (while staying cooler on the Eastern Shore). This should allow for significant melting of any remaining snow/ice pack. Marine As of 400pm EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the lower Chesapeake Bay, Currituck Sound, and coastal waters south of Cape Charles tonight. - Strong Gale conditions or low-end Storm conditions prevail Saturday through Saturday night behind a strong cold front. Coastal waters N of the VA-NC border are now in a Storm Watch, with a Gale Watch in effect for all remaining waters. - Heavy Freezing Spray Watches have been expanded down to the VA-NC border on the Ocean, and remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay from Saturday morning into Sunday morning. Latest surface analysis depicts ~1005mb surface low pressure off the SE coast, keeping northerly winds a bit elevated across the region. Still have SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) in effect for the lower Bay, sound, and the Ocean S of Cape Charles. Seas are still 4-6 ft over the southern Ocean zones. Sub- SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions prevail elsewhere with seas 3-4 ft and waves 1-2 ft or less. Weak high pressure settles over the region overnight and will remain in place into Fri afternoon. Should see all headlines end w/ relatively light winds and seas 3-4 ft or less. However, a cold front crosses the local waters Fri night, with impressive Cold Air Advection lagging behind by 3-6 hrs, spreading in from the NW between 06-12Z/Sat AM. The combination of a ~1035 mb surface high building SE from the upper midwest into the local waters, and deepening low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast will lead to a strong pressure gradient area- wide Sat into Sat night. Pressure rises on the order of 9-12mb/6 hr are likely Sat morning, along with enhanced downward motion on the back side of a departing shortwave. Have upgraded the VA-NC ocean zones to a Storm Watch for NW winds increasing to ~40 kt with frequent gusts to 50 kt. Gale watches remain in effect elsewhere- NW winds quickly increasing to 30-40 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Local wind probs for 48 kt gusts were 50-90% across the coastal waters (highest across the coastal waters north of the VA/NC border) and less than 40% across the Ches Bay. Given the strong winds and cold temps, moderate to heavy freezing spray is also likely Sat and Sun. Heavy Freezing Spray Watches have been expanded south to include the Ocean down to the VA-NC border, and remain in effect for the Ches Bay and coastal waters north of Cape Charles Light. While the watch ends on Sunday morning, light to moderate freezing spray will continue to be possible through the day Sun. Will also note that light to moderate freezing spray is possible across the upper rivers, Currituck Sound, and southern coastal waters as well, with Freezing Spray Advisories likely as we get closer. Additionally, given the strong winds, waves and seas are expected to build to 5-8 ft and 6-11 ft respectively this weekend. Otherwise, given the strong NW winds this weekend, another period of low water levels appears likely for the Currituck Sound, and possible the upper Bay. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for MDZ021>025. Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for MDZ021>025. NC...None. VA...High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for VAZ099-100. Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for VAZ099-100. Marine Gale Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for ANZ630>632-634-658. Heavy Freezing Spray Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656. Small Craft Advisory until 10pm EST this evening for ANZ632- 634. Small Craft Advisory until 1am EST Friday for ANZ633-656. Gale Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday night for ANZ633-635>638. Storm Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday night for ANZ650-652-654-656. Small Craft Advisory until 10am EST Friday for ANZ658. |
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