VA-NC border to Currituck Beach Light, NC out 20 nm Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Mainly E Swell. Dominant Period 9 Seconds.
|Tonight...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Mainly E Swell. Dominant Period 9 Seconds.
|Mon...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Dominant Period 8 Seconds. Rain Likely.
|Mon Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Se After Midnight. Seas 5 To 6 Ft. Dominant Period 8 Seconds. Rain.
|Tue...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft. Mainly Se Swell. Dominant Period 8 Seconds. A Chance Of Rain In The Morning.
|Tue Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Mainly E Swell. Dominant Period 11 Seconds.
|Wed...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 5 To 6 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely In The Afternoon.
|Wed Night...S Winds 15 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Seas 5 To 6 Ft. Showers Likely.
|Thu...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning.
|Thu Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft.
| Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
640am EST Sunday Mar 3 2024
High pressure briefly returns today with another area of low pressure moving up the coast later Monday into Tuesday.
Near Term - Through Tonight
As of 640am EST Sunday... Surface low pressure continues to lift northward into New England early this morning. Satellite and surface observations show scattered fog and low stratus across the area, especially in the Piedmont where winds were calm for most of the night.
High pressure noses into the region from the north today which should allow for more sunshine across the region. High temps today will generally be in the 60s with mid and upper 60s inland and upper 50s to low 60s at the coast. Clouds increase from the south tonight as high pressure translates offshore and low pressure develops along a coastal trough off the SC/GA coast. Increasing moisture in onshore flow argue for slight chance Probability of Precipitation across the far SE portions of the area before sunrise. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 40s.
Short Term - Monday Through Tuesday Night
As of 300am EST Sunday... 00z guidance has come into better agreement regarding coastal low pressure lifting northward on Monday. Will show increasing Probability of Precipitation through the day with the highest values over the southeastern half of the area during the daylight hours. Temperatures will be warmest out west where cloud cover will thinner with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Low and mid 60s are forecast to the east of I-95 with upper 50s to low 60s along the immediate coast with cool onshore flow. The highest Probability of Precipitation occur Monday evening into the overnight hours. Quantitative Precipitation Forecast from this system will be focused along the coast with storm totals ranging from 0.25-0.5" for the Piedmont, 0.5-0.75" for the I-95 corridor, and 0.75-1" to the east. Low temps Monday night fall into the upper 40s N to the low 50s S.
PoPs decrease from SW to NE Tuesday morning with lingering slight chance Probability of Precipitation across the MD Eastern Shore through the afternoon. Breaks in the clouds are likely during the afternoon with highs in the upper 60s S and SW, mid 60s along the I-64 corridor and upper 50s to low 60s expected north and east. Should be mostly dry Tuesday night but moisture increases again ahead of the next area of low pressure approaching from the SW. Lows overnight will be similar to Monday night, generally in the upper 40s to low 50s from N to S.
Long Term - Wednesday Through Saturday
As of 300am EST Sunday... Another area of low pressure approaches from the SW on Wednesday, crossing the area Wednesday night. Models have come in to slightly better agreement with respect to timing of the low, but are still differing on the track with the GFS (Global Forecast System) taking the low further inland/closer to the mountains, while the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and Canadian keep the low closer to the coast. The further inland track of the GFS would bring warmer air into the region, while the coastal solutions keep temperatures cooler. Due to the model disagreement, continued using the blended model approach (NBM). The highest rain chances will likely be during the Wednesday afternoon-night timeframe across the region. It should be noted that if the low tracks closer to the GFS solution, we will have the potential to see thunder chances spread further north compared to the current forecast which has thunder confined across far S VA and NC.
High pressure briefly returns late in the work week before another low pressure system likely approaches the region next weekend. Temperatures trend slightly cooler later in the week, but will generally remain in the 50s and 60s during the day with lows in the upper 30s to 40s.
As of 300am EST Sunday... Early this morning, high pressure continues to build over the waters. Meanwhile, ~1018 mb low pressure is located NE of the local area. Winds are light and variable over the Chesapeake Bay and ~5 to 10 knots out of the NW over the coastal waters. Seas remain elevated, generally running around ~5 to 7 feet, with heigheights up to 8 feet out 20 nm. Waves in the bay are running around 1 to 2 feet (up to 3 feet at the mouth). SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) for the coastal waters (due to elevated seas) run into early tonight and may potentially need to be extended for another ~6 hours depending on trends in regards to the seas.
Winds this afternoon will remain light and generally out of the N to NE with high pressure overhead. Another low pressure system approaches the waters Monday night into Tuesday, bringing another increase in wind, generally remaining sub-SCA, but we could see some gusts to around SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria (especially across the Chesapeake Bay) Seas will also build again with another round of 5+ ft seas likely for the coastal waters and thus additional SCAs. The unsettled pattern looks to continue after this timeframe with yet another low pressure system approaching by mid to late week which will bring the potential SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) due to both winds and seas.
Some preliminary Winter (Dec-Feb) statistics:
* RIC: wettest winter on record (17.97"). * RIC: 8th warmest on record (44.0F).
* SBY: 9th wettest on record (15.44"). * SBY: 8th warmest on record (42.47F).
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 1am EST Monday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658.