VA-NC border to Currituck Beach Light, NC out 20 nm Marine Forecast
|Tonight...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Mainly Se Swell. Dominant Period 7 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms This Evening.|
|Mon...Ne Winds 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Mainly Se Swell. Dominant Period 7 Seconds.|
|Mon Night...E Winds 10 Kt, Becoming Se After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Mainly Se Swell. Dominant Period 9 Seconds.|
|Tue...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Dominant Period 9 Seconds.|
|Tue Night...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 9 Seconds.|
|Wed...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Dominant Period 9 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon.|
|Wed Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Dominant Period 8 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Thu...Ne Winds 10 Kt, Becoming Se After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Tstms.|
|Fri...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw With Gusts To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Tstms. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
355pm EDT Sunday July 3 2022
A cold front will push south of the region early this evening. High pressure will build across the region later tonight through Independence Day. High pressure slides offshore Tuesday into Wednesday.
Near Term - Until 6am Monday Morning
As of 355pm EDT Sunday... A cold front is dropping south across the area this afternoon, mainly in the form of a dewpoint boundary as the initial wind shift has pushed south of the Albemarle Sound. The dewpoint boundary is associated with an instability gradient, with 100mb MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg across s-central VA and NE NC. Scattered showers/tstms have developed along and on the moist side of the boundary over SE VA/NE NC. These tstms have been loosely organized with 25-30kt of effective bulk shear. The main threat will be brief heavy rain. However, there could be some localized stronger wind gusts associated with collapsing updrafts. Temperatures this afternoon are mainly in the 80s, with lower 90s across NE NC.
The flow aloft is out of the southwest ahead of a trough digging across the Eastern Great Lakes and Northeast. As this trough continues to dive ESE it will push the moisture gradient SE of the area later this evening. Showers/tstms should become concentrated across far s-central VA and NE NC by late this afternoon and evening, with this activity pushing south of the Albemarle Sound around 8 PM. High pressure builds in from the NW overnight along with drier air. A rather comfortable night is expected for early July with lows ranging from the lower/mid 60s NW to near 70F SE under a mostly clear sky.
Short Term - 6am Monday Morning Through Wednesday
As of 355pm EDT Sunday... High pressure becomes centered immediately off the coast Independence Day. Quite pleasant with dewpoints dropping to the lower 60s during peak heating, with some upper 50s possible NE. High temperatures will range from the lower 80s along the coast with onshore flow, to the mid 80s to near 90F farther inland. Mostly clear Monday night with lows in the mid 60s to around 70F. High pressure slides farther offshore Tuesday as an upper ridge builds from the Ohio Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic. Seasonally hot with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s (lower to mid 80s immediate coast) and increasingly humid as moisture returns from the south. There is a chance of later afternoon/evening showers/tstms, mainly across the north as the ridge may suppress activity farther south.
Partly cloudy to mostly clear Tuesday night with any showers/tstms diminishing overnight. Warm and humid with lows in the lower to mid 70s. The ridge does break down Tuesday night into Wednesday as a trough digs across the Northeast. This will result in mid-level NW flow. Hotter and even more humid with highs in the lower 90s (mid/upper 80s immediate coast). An impulse within the NW flow aloft will likely trigger showers/tstms across the area during the afternoon/evening hours. Current forecast Probability of Precipitation are 30-50% due to uncertainty in timing and location.
Long Term - Wednesday Night Through Sunday
As of 355pm EDT Sunday... An unsettled weather pattern is expected to continue later in the week into at least Saturday. A ridge is expected to build over the southern CONUS from TX to GA as a trough develops over the northeastern CONUS. Multiple boundaries or cold fronts are expected to push through the area in NW flow aloft bringing chcs for mainly afternoon/evening showers/tstms. High temperatures will be seasonal and mainly be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with low temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
As of 355pm EDT Sunday... A cold front currently over the SE VA/NE NC coastal waters will move to the south of the local area by tonight. N-NE winds of 10-15 kt (w/ a few gusts close to 20 kt) will diminish to 5-10 kt by midnight. Tstms will have the potential to bring 34+ kt gusts to the Lower Ches Bay and southern coastal waters from now-8 PM before exiting the area. High pressure briefly builds over the waters on Monday before moving offshore by Monday night. This will result in ESE winds on Monday gradually becoming SSW by Tue. Seas will generally range from 2 to 3 feet on Monday...building to 2 to 4 feet later Tuesday into Tuesday night. Prevailing sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are forecast to continue through at least the middle of the week.
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.