VA-NC border to Currituck Beach Light, NC out 20 nm Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Sun...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Sun Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 15 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening. |
| Mon...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: E 3 Ft At 8 Seconds And Ne 2 Ft At 3 Seconds. |
| Mon Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 4 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 4 Ft At 7 Seconds. |
| Tue...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: E 4 Ft At 7 Seconds. |
| Tue Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 15 Kt In The Evening. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. |
| Wed...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. |
| Wed Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. |
| Thu...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Thu Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 802pm EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated discussion and aviation sections. Have increased storm chances for Sunday slightly. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) There is an Increased Fire Danger Statement for portions of NE NC from 10am to 8pm Sunday. 2) A cold front moves into the area Sunday bringing a chance for afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms. 3) Warm, but seasonable, Monday and Tuesday. Temps warm into the mid to upper 90s by late week. As of 800pm EDT Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1...There is an Increased Fire Danger Statement for portions of NE NC from 10am to 8pm Sunday. Ongoing drought conditions, lack of widespread wetting rain leading to low soil moisture, and abnormally dry dead fuels have led to high levels of fire danger in Northeast North Carolina. Additionally, there is lower moisture content in live coastal fuels. These factors are combined with hot temperatures Sunday and abnormally low RH values (25-35%). NC Forest Service has requested an Increased Fire Danger Statement (IFD) again for Sunday. KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot temperatures continue through Sunday with highs in the lower to mid 90s. Another warm day forecast for tomorrow with highs climbing into the mid 90s south of I-64 and the low 90s north. A backdoor cold front approaches the northern border tomorrow afternoon as a shortwave trough pivots out to sea over New England. Ahead of the front, isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to form during the afternoon and evening hours. CAMs are in pretty good agreement on coverage and location of said storms. Starting out with a few storms between Palmyra and Farmville, then spreading south and east roughly along the US-460 corridor. A few isolated showers could linger across far southern portions of area as late as midnight-2am. There is a low-end potential for isolated strong to severe storms. Surface heating will provide steep low level lapse rates and there's just enough moisture for modest instability. Main threat would be damaging wind gusts should stronger storms form. The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of the area in a Marginal Risk with the exception of the Eastern Shore. The backdoor cold front will then progress through the area Sunday night. KEY MESSAGE 3...A cold front moves into the area Sunday bringing a chance for afternoon and early evening storms, followed by briefly cooler temperatures early next week. The local FA likely ends up north of the backdoor front on Monday, resulting in onshore flow and slightly cooler temperatures. The Eastern Shore, peninsulas, and southside Hampton Roads will have cooler highs in the 70s while inland locations warm well into the 80s. Onshore flow continues into Tuesday, but taking on a southerly component as the surface high slides SE. Similar temps expected Tuesday, though a bit warmer at the coast (around 80F). Temps in the 90s return mid to late week as an UL ridge builds overhead and surface flow returns to the SW. There is a non-zero chance of seeing high near 100F toward the end of the week. However, current ensemble guidance has probs less than 30% for temps greater than or equal to 100F. This late week period into the weekend could be a little unsettled as well with daily chance of showers/thunderstorms. Does not appear to be widespread measurable rain at this time, though. Marine As of 300pm EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - SW flow is expected to increase tonight ahead of an approaching cold front, but conditions should remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels - The cold front drop southward through the area waters on Sunday evening and exit the region by Monday morning. Expect a return to NE flow behind the front with small craft conditions possible. A strong area of high pressure continues to remain anchored in the western Atlantic off the SE US coast this afternoon. Meanwhile a cold front slowly approaches from the Great Lakes and Northern portions of the Ohio Valley. Currently, winds remain light in the 10 - 15 kt range. As the cold front begins to approach the area later this evening, expect to see the SW flow increase into the 15 - 20 kt range for the Bay and near coastal areas and closer to 25 kt over the open ocean. Guidance suggest wind just in the near shore coastal waters could briefly gust to 25 kt, but the time frame looks very short, just a few hours, and the probabilities of reaching 25kt are less than 25%. So have not raised the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) flag at this time. The winds will relax a bit on Sunday as the gradient between the front and the area of high pressure slides southward. But once the front crosses the area late on Sunday off the MD coast and through the night along the VA and NC coast, the flow will turn north to northeast as a strong area of high pressure builds down the coast. Expect winds to be SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels initially behind the front, but then the persistent NE flow on Monday into Monday night will allow seas to build to 4 - 6 FT in the ocean waters. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) flags will likely be needed in the coastal waters and portions of the Chesapeake Bay. By Tuesday, the area of high pressure will slide off the coast and turn the winds more SE. For Wednesday to Friday, the area of high pressure moves SE and anchors near where the current area of high pressure is in the Western Atlantic. This will allow for a return to lighter SW flow across area waters to end the week. Climate Record High Temperatures: 6/6 6/7 RIC 96/1952 100/2008 ORF 97/2002 101/2008 SBY 102/1925 97/2008 ECG 96/1939 99/2008 NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 8pm EDT this evening for NCZ013>017-030>032-102. VA...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 8am EDT Sunday for ANZ633. |
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