VA-NC border to Currituck Beach Light, NC out 20 nm Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft With A Dominant Period Of 10 Seconds.|
|Tonight...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft With A Dominant Period Of 9 Seconds.|
|Thu...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft With A Dominant Period Of 8 Seconds.|
|Thu Night...E Winds 10 Kt, Diminishing To 5 Kt Late. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Mainly E Swell With A Dominant Period Of 9 Seconds.|
|Fri...Se Winds 5 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft.|
|Fri Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft.|
|Sat...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Sat Night...Se Winds 5 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 5 Kt, Becoming E In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon.|
|Sun Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1004am EDT Wednesday September 19 2018
Synopsis: High pressure builds into the area Wednesday through Friday. A cold front approaches from the north on Saturday.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
As of 1000am EDT Wednesday... * NWS Surveys have determined that there have been 6 confirmed tornadoes from yesterday. See PNSAKQ for details.
Latest analysis indicates that the surface cold front is now well offshore of the region. Winds are mainly light out of the N/NW inland, with 10-15 kt winds near the coast. Sunny this morning with temperatures rising through the 70s to around 80F, with dewpoints still around 70F. Despite the frontal passage, temperatures will be quick to rebound today (as a secondary push of cooler air remains north of the CWA). Highs will range from the mid-upper 80s, but with slightly less humidity than what we experienced yesterday as dewpoints drop into the upper 60s by aftn. Some of the CAM guidance (notably the 19/00z HREF members) is forecasting a few isolated showers to develop this afternoon/early evening over the northwestern counties (on the edge of that secondary push of cooler air). With no discernible forcing mechanism or front nearby, opted to keep Probability of Precipitation aob 14%
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through Friday
As of 400am EDT Wednesday... Dry weather is expected throughout the region from Wednesday night-Fri. Surface high pressure centered over northeastern Canada ridges into the region Wednesday night-Thursday as the secondary push of cooler air arrives. Expect lows in the 60s throughout the bulk of the region on Thursday. Afternoon highs will range from the upper 70s to around 80 on the Lower Eastern Shore, with low-mid 80s expected across the rest of the CWA as a 500hPa anticyclone starts to build back into the region. The ridge of surface high pressure moves to the south and east of the CWA by Friday as a strong area of surface low pressure moves into southeastern Canada. This will allow winds to turn back to the south. Forecast highs on Friday are in the mid 80s in most areas (with lower 80s on the Eastern Shore)
Long Term - Friday Night Through Tuesday
As of 245pm EDT Monday... Models show a frontal boundary stalling across the Mid Atlantic region late Sat/Sunday with several waves of low pressure moving east along it through the period. Will carry chance probability of precipitation each day, trying not to get too fine in timing any wave this far out in time. The boundary will try to sag farther south by Tuesday as high pressure moves across the nern states. Pops a bit lower Tuesday.
Highs Sat in the low-mid 80s, mid 70s-mid 80s Sunday / Mon, upr 70s-mid 80s Tues. Lows in the 60s to near 70 se.
As of 620am EDT Wednesday... Latest marine observations/buoy reports reveal NNW flow across the waters this morning. Surface analysis shows cool front now well offshore of the DelMarVa and the coastal Carolinas. Offshore flow in the wake of the frontal passage have settled down below SCA, after a period of Small Craft Advisory winds earlier this evening in the Bay and lower James. Seas are in the process of similarly diminishing, and average 2-3ft nearshore, ~4ft farther offshore over northern waters.
Winds have increased slightly as expected early this morning and should persist through late morning, due to tightening pressure gradient w/high pressure nudging in from the NW. High- res models verifying a bit high this morning, so have kept winds in the Bay just below Small Craft Advisory thresholds, holding at 15 kt...though a few gusts to ~20 kt are possible. NW flow begins to subside into the afternoon, as the high slides closer and gradient begins to slacken slightly. We will have to watch the coastal zones once again for Small Craft Advisory conditions tonight, with building seas as flow turns ENE flow overnight into Thursday. However, w/ sub- sca winds and with NWPS still running a bit higher than Wavewatch, will hold off for now. Any headline for seas over the coastal zones would be short-lived, w/high pressure building over the region for Thu/Fri, then offshore Fri / Fri night. Expect quiet/benign weather during this period with generally lighter winds and seas ~3ft.
Next cool front crosses the waters Saturday, with winds becoming WNW post-frontal later Sat into Sunday. There is potential for a brief period of elevated winds in pre-frontal SSW flow early Sat in the Bay/Lower James
As of 620am EDT Wednesday... River Flood Warnings continue for James River at Richmond Locks and Richmond Westham...the Appomattox River at Mattoax and the Meherrin River at Lawrenceville. Water levels will gradually rise today before cresting and slowly falling late today/tonight through Friday. See FLSAKQ for more site-specific details
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None