VA-NC border to Currituck Beach Light, NC out 20 nm Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 4 Ft. Dominant Period 11 Seconds.|
|Tonight...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 10 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening.|
|Mon...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Mainly Nw Swell. Dominant Period 10 Seconds.|
|Mon Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. Mainly N Swell. Dominant Period 9 Seconds.|
|Tue...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. Mainly Se Swell. Dominant Period 9 Seconds.|
|Tue Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. Mainly Se Swell. Dominant Period 7 Seconds.|
|Wed...N Winds 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Wed Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening.|
|Thu...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 4 Ft.|
|Thu Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 4 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
101pm EDT Sunday April 11 2021
A cold front approaching from the west will cross the area this evening. High pressure builds over the deep south on Monday, as an upper level trough moves into the northern mid Atlantic region. Another front approaches the area from the west mid week.
Near Term - Through Tonight
As of 1255pm EDT Sunday... The latest analysis indicates the cold front approaching from the W is now located along the Appalachians. The primary area of low pressure is centered over the western Great Lakes, with secondary surface low development taking place over central PA. There have been a fair amount of low clouds across much of southern VA and NE NC this morning and that has led to a slower rise in temperatures thus far (holding in the upper 60s to lower 70s). Satellite trends indicate these low clouds are scouring out now so anticipate seeing a jump in temperatures during the next few hrs and will maintain highs into the upper 70s to lower for most of the local area (locally it will be cooler across the coastal areas of the eastern shore).
The latest Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Marginal Risk remains over most of the CWA E of I-95 (has been been dropped across much of the Piedmont and in NE NC). Thinking here is due to slightly drier air/lower dew pts arriving earlier and diminishing the coverage and organization of storms later this afternoon for the Piedmont, and with somewhat less forcing across NE NC farther removed from the effects of the cold front until around sunset. Thus the highest threat will set up late this afternoon into the early evening period (4pm to 8pm) over SE/eastern VA where ML CAPE values will average ~1000 J/Kg with surface dew pts remaining around 60F. This is also the area with the highest forecast values of effective shear of 30-35kt. Still, even here the coverage is not expected to be any higher than ~30% so the threat is still only marginal for localized strong/marginal severe wind gusts (with some hail possible as well).
Cold front pushes away from the coast overnight so any remaining showers and storms should end late in the evening/before midnight. Becoming mostly clear with overnight low temps mainly in the 50s.
Short Term - Monday Through Tuesday
As of 1155am EDT Sunday... The latest models (as well as the NBM) have trended significantly farther to the S and more amplified with the upper trough, now having it move SE into MD/northern VA Monday afternoon and moving off the Delmarva Monday night. Have increased cloud cover, lowered high temperatures and added 20-30% Probability of Precipitation across the NE portions of the CWA Monday aftn-evening. Will keep it dry elsewhere, but do expect a period with partly cloudy skies Mon aftn/evening. Temps will remain mild with a downsloping W/NW flow. High temps in the mid lower to mid 70s for most areas, but only in the 60s one the eastern shore where it becomes mostly cloudy by midday. Low temps Monday night range from the upper 40s to lower 50s. The next upper trough from the NW approaches on Tuesday but a model consensus keeps conditions mainly dry over the local area with low chance probability of precipitation staying just north of the area. Highs Tuesday range from the lower- mid 70s S to the low-mid 60s eastern shore.
Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Sunday
As of 245am EDT Sunday... Global models are in better agreement for the mid to end of week time frame compared to the past couple of runs. Wednesday morning an upper low will be sitting over the Great Lakes and dive SE and be centered to our north by late Thursday night and then off the coast by Friday morning. At the surface, a cold front will move across the area late Wednesday into early Thursday as an area of low pressure moves across the area and then strengthens off the coast Thursday into Friday. Slight chance to chance probability of precipitation in for Wednesday into late Wednesday night, and then drier conditions expected for Thursday and Friday. Seasonal temps expected Wednesday through Friday with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.
As of 250am EDT Sunday... SSE winds aob 15 kt this morn become SSW this afternoon ahead of a cold front that will cross the waters tonite. Seas around 4 ft with 1-2 ft waves. Seas may flirt with 5 ft out near 20 nm, but not sgnfcnt enuf to warrant a SCA.
Winds shift to the NW tonite, N Monday then turn ENE Monday nite and Tuesday as high pressure passes to the north. Still no significant Cold Air Advection surge noted behind the frontal passage so kept winds below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels thru mid week. What will have to be monitored in later periods is across the Md coastal waters where an uptick in ne winds/seas are forecast Mon nite and Tue. Otw, seas average 3-4 ft with 1-2 ft waves.
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.