VA-NC border to Currituck Beach Light, NC out 20 nm Marine Forecast
|Through 7 Am...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Mainly E Swell. Dominant Period 12 Seconds.|
|Today...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt Late. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Dominant Period 12 Seconds.|
|Tonight...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Dominant Period 11 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Fri...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw 5 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 11 Seconds. A Chance Of Rain In The Morning, Then Rain In The Afternoon.|
|Fri Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 10 Seconds. Rain.|
|Sat...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 5 To 6 Ft. Dominant Period 5 Seconds. A Chance Of Rain.|
|Sat Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 6 To 7 Ft. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. A Chance Of Rain In The Evening, Then Rain After Midnight.|
|Sun...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Gusts To 35 Kt. Seas 8 To 10 Ft. Rain Through The Day, Then A Chance Of Rain Through The Night.|
|Mon...Nw Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts To 40 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt In The Afternoon, Then Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt In The Evening, Becoming 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 7 To 9 Ft, Subsiding To 5 To 6 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1224am EST Thu Feb 9 2023
High pressure remains off the southeast US coast through tonight. Rain chances increase late Thursday through Sunday as a couple of low pressure systems impact the area. High pressure returns early next week.
Near Term - Until 6am This Morning
As of 730pm EST Wednesday... A very mild afternoon today across the CWA. Highs were mainly in the upper 60s-low 70s in inland VA and NC, with low to mid 60s across the Eastern Shore and coastal VA/NC. With mainly clear skies at the moment, temps have cooled off quite a bit this evening. Current obs show temps generally in the 50s, except in the 40s near the water and on the VA/MD Eastern Shore. Noting some even cooler air up near the MD Beaches, with Ocean City ~40. For tonight, passing mid-high level clouds are expected ahead of low pressure system moving NE through MS River Valley and into the Great Lakes region. Variable winds become SE towards the morning hrs as high pressure remains off the SE US. Lows tonight will be coolest across the NE (upper 30s-low 40s) where solid onshore flow continues and warmest across the W/SW (low- mid 40s). Probability of Precipitation remain aob 10% through the morning.
.SHORT TERM /6am THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 110pm EST Wednesday... Lo pressure will continue to track NE through the Great Lakes Thu...pushing a weak trough aloft/surface cold front toward the region. However...the cold front will weaken as it approaches...and the best mid/upper dynamics pass by well to the N/NW. As a result...the precipitation associated with the front will weaken significantly as it tracks into/across the area Thu-Thu evening. Probability of Precipitation has continued to trend down...and will have no higher than slight chance Probability of Precipitation - no better than 20% mainly N and W (w/ Probability of Precipitation at or below 10% in SE VA/NE NC) from 18Z/09-06Z/10. Mild w/ a 10-15 mph SSW wind Thu w/ highs mainly 60-65F on the eastern shore...and u60s-l70s inland.
Mild/warm Thu night through Fri. Surface lo pressure tracking across southern Ontario/Quebec will push a weakening cold front near the FA. Meanwhile...an amplifying trough aloft over the MS River Valley Fri will allow secondary surface lo pressure to start developing INVOF AL/GA. SHRAs-rain (and perhaps a tstm or two in NE NC) will increase along the front by Fri afternoon. Probability of Precipitation increase to 80-90% SE/30-50% NW by late Fri. Will confine any mention of thunder to NE NC. Highs mainly in the 60s-70F. Most of the precipitation likely becomes confined to the Carolinas (maybe SE VA) by late Fri night as the front moves to our south (although light rain cannot be ruled out in central VA/the eastern shore). Cooler with lows mainly in the 40-45F range.
Strengthening lo pressure near the GA/SC coast Fri night-Sat in response to intense upper level lo pressure diving to near the FL panhandle will result in moisture spreading N back into the FA (by late Sat). Highest Probability of Precipitation through Sat afternoon will be over NE NE/SE VA (50-80%...tapering to 20-40% NW). Highs Sat mainly in the u40s-around 50F.
Long Term - Saturday Night Through Wednesday
As of 225pm EST Wednesday... A continued unsettled period of weather is expected from Sat night into Sunday night. Global deterministic models (GFS/ECMWF) and their respective ensembles (GEFS/EPS) are on board forecasting surface lo pressure to deepen as it tracks from the coastal Carolinas to just off the coast of VA/MD from Sat night-Sunday while a closed upper low tracks from the interior SE CONUS states to eastern VA/NC. GEFS is colder than the EPS and how it relates to potential ptype concerns. Blended guidance has Probability of Precipitation to 60-90% Sun...tapering to SLGT CHC by late Sunday (E). Given the absence of strong hi pressure to the N (and in reality a lack of any source of (even at least normal) cold air)...precipitation looks to be mainly rain for the FA from Sat night-Sunday night (along w/ developing breezy conditions w/ due to the deepening low). That said...ensemble guidance hasn't changed too much today from previous run...potential p-type issues (mainly RA/SN)...all of the ensemble solutions are forecasting the highest snow potential to be in the mountains well to our W. Will continue with no mention of snow I-95 on E w/ at least a mention of a rain/snow mix W (over portions of the Piedmont). Conditions improve/dry out in most areas by early Monday morning. Right now...it appears that hi pressure and dry weather returns Mon-Tuesday as ridging aloft rebuilds INVOF the SE CONUS. Another cold front may affect the FA w/ possible SHRAs Wed.
Lows Sat night generally in the l30s W to around 40F at the coast in SE VA/NE NC. Highs Sunday mainly in the m-u40s inland to the u40s-l50s at the coast. Lows Sunday night mainly in the u20s-m30s. Highs Monday in the l-m50s on the eastern shore to the m-u50s inland. Highs Tuesday in the u50s-m60s. Highs Wednesday in the l-m60s.
As of 935pm EST Wednesday... Latest obs reflect light E-SE flow over the local waters this evening. Surface high pressure remains in place over the local waters, and will push offshore overnight. E-SE swell which prompted Small Craft Advisories over the coastal zones have been allowed to expire this evening north of the VA/NC border. Will maintain SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for far southern waters for the overnight hours, though seas will slowly continue to slowly subside through around sunrise Thursday morning, and given current trends, expect SCA (Small Craft Advisory) would be lowered by around that time.
However, another round of Small Craft Advisories are likely to be needed for tomorrow night into Friday ahead the next system. A strong area of low pressure will track northeast across the Ohio River Valley to Great Lakes tomorrow, with the trailing strong cold front dropping across the waters early Fri morning. Increasing (pre-frontal) S-SSW winds are expected Thursday evening, likely reaching SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds at least over the Bay and ocean zones north of Parramore Island later Thu evening into early Friday, with a brief period of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) possible farther south as well. Lighter winds then briefly return for Friday into Saturday ahead of the next storm system.
A strong area of low pressure is forecasted to develop along the SE coast this weekend. The center of low pressure may remain to the south of the area with strong N-NE winds possible. Gale conditions are possible late Saturday and into Sunday, with best chances over the lower Bay, lower James River and southern coastal zones.
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 1pm EST this afternoon for ANZ658.