VA-NC border to Currituck Beach Light, NC out 20 nm Marine Forecast
| Today...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: E 3 Ft At 7 Seconds. |
| Tonight...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 3 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 7 Seconds. |
| Fri...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 3 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
| Fri Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 2 Ft At 3 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
| Sat...Ne Winds 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And E 1 Foot At 7 Seconds. |
| Sat Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 1 Foot At 11 Seconds. |
| Sun...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. |
| Sun Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Gusts Up To 15 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. |
| Mon...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne With Gusts Up To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas Around 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Mon Night...Ne Winds 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 420am EDT Thu September 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes to the forecast. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warm weather and chances for showers and storms start today and continue into the weekend. Then another cool down looks likely at the start of next week. As of 311am EDT Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm weather and chances for showers and storms start today and continue into the weekend. Then another cool down looks likely at the start of next week. Morning weather analysis shows an elongated 1026mb high pressure off the east coast. The high pressure allows for another pleasant night across the area, with sky's remaining clear to mostly clear and temperatures hovering in the low to middle 60s inland and upper 60s to low 70s along the coast. Through the rest of the morning expect temperatures to continue to drop into the upper 50s to low 60s inland and middle to upper 60s along the coast. Over the course of the day temperatures will likely warm back into the upper 80s to possibly lower 90s. However confidence in widespread 90s is low at this time due to weak southerly flow. Along the coast temperatures will likely be in the mid to upper 80s. In addition, a weak front will drop south out from the Ohio Valley toward the area. This will allow for shower chances to increase primarily across far NW portions of the CWA (County Warning Area) (Louisa and Fluvanna, primarily) in the afternoon. Coverage of the showers looks to be very minimal due to weak forcing. A few showers may linger across the far northern portion of the area into Thursday evening with overnight lows in the mid 60s to low 70s. By Friday, the front looks to pass through the area early in the morning as a high pressure builds south out of the Great Lakes. CAMS continue to hint on pre and post-frontal showers mainly over the SW half of the area. Will note, Quantitative Precipitation Forecast with these possible showers look to be minimal (0.1 to 0.25"). In addition to the showers, with the front moving through the morning temperatures may struggle to warm especially across the north. The highs are likely to be in the low to mid 80s north and upper 80s to possible 90F south. Mostly dry and somewhat cooler on Saturday behind the front with highs in the low to mid 80s. The front likely lifts back to the north Sunday into early next week with increasing deep moisture and chances for diurnal showers and storms. Looking ahead to early next week there is a decent synoptic agreement from the EURO, Canadian, & GFS (Global Forecast System) ensembles. Confidence has increased slightly on a strong upper level ridge building over Hudson Bay. At the surface, this allows for the potential of a strong high pressure to center itself over Eastern Canada. Looking at pattern recognition with the potential placement of the ridge and surface high, this will likely lead to onshore flow leading to much cooler temperatures and unsettled conditions Marine As of 400am EDT Thursday.. Key Messages: - Mainly sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are forecast through the weekend, but increasing southerly winds prevail tonight ahead of a cold front, with elevated NE to E winds later Friday through Saturday. - Decent model consensus that strong high pressure becomes locked in place across eastern Canada/northern New England next week, bringing several days of onshore flow and the potential for strong SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) or Gales. High pressure remains in place across the local waters early this morning, with light winds and seas 2-3 ft in NC, and generally ~2 ft elsewhere (waves 1 ft or less in the Bay, rivers/sound). Later this afternoon into tonight, S-SE winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots ahead of an approaching cold front. Afternoon models have trended quicker with the frontal passage on Friday, now forecast to cross the waters Friday morning into the early afternoon. In the wake of the front, winds become N-NW and average 10 to 15 knots with strong high pressure situated to our north. Gusts to 20 knots will likely be possible at some sites across the Chesapeake Bay Friday afternoon-evening, but likely not frequent enough to warrant SCAs. In addition, local wind probs for SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are only hovering around 10 to 15% (max). As we head into Saturday, winds become E-NE and remain elevated to around 10 to 15 knots across all waters. Winds become southerly later Saturday night into Sunday and decrease. By late Monday or Tuesday, the synoptic pattern looks to support a much more active marine setup for the local area, as strong surface high pressure builds across eastern Canada (normalized anomalies are >2 std dev for the surface high), with low pressure lingering off the SE coast. This is still several days out, but there is quite strong consensus amongst the Euro, GFS, and Canadian ensembles in this pattern. At least strong SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) appear probable for much of the week, with a decent chance at Gales, so we will continue to monitor the trends as this gets closer in time. The rip current risk will be Moderate for the NC beaches today where seas ~2.5 ft linger w/ ~8 sec. periods, but low elsewhere as the swell becomes more from the SE and seas are ~2 ft. A Low risk is forecast Friday, with a Moderate for Saturday as the flow becomes onshore once again. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine None. |
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