VA-NC border to Currituck Beach Light, NC out 20 nm Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 2 Ft At 3 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 12 Seconds. |
| Sun...Sw Winds 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 13 Seconds. |
| Sun Night...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: S 4 Ft At 5 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 12 Seconds. |
| Mon...W Winds 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 4 Ft At 5 Seconds And E 1 Foot At 12 Seconds. |
| Mon Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming N 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And Se 1 Foot At 10 Seconds. |
| Tue...Nw Winds 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Tue Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Wed...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. |
| Wed Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas Around 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 218am EDT Sunday Oct 13 2024 Synopsis High pressure will slide farther out to sea during today, as low pressure moves across the Ohio Valley and into Pennsylvania. Warm and dry conditions will prevail today well in advance of an approaching cold front. That strong, but mainly dry cold front will cross the region late tonight into Monday afternoon. Below normal temperatures are expected through the mid to late portion of next week. Near Term - Until 6am This Morning As of 255pm EDT Saturday... Key Message: - Dry and a little milder overnight than the past few nights. The latest weather analysis indicates a broad WNW flow aloft over the local area, with surface high pressure centered across the deep south. A frontal boundary is nearly stationary, aligned W to E from central IL to PA/NJ. A pleasant dry afternoon prevails with a light W-SW wind and a clear sky. Temperatures are now mainly in the mid 70s to around 80F over the FA. The surface high is forecast to slowly weaken while pushing off the SE coast tonight, as low pressure tracks ENE from central/northern IL towards northern OH by Sunday morning. Locally, clear skies will continue, with a light SW wind keeping temperatures a few degrees warmer than the past 2 nights. Lows will range from the upper 40s to low-mid 50s (generally coolest over interior southern VA/NE NC and warmest near the coast). .SHORT TERM /6am THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300pm EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Breezy and warm Sunday with aftn/evening gusts to 20-30 mph expected. - A cold front crosses the area on Monday, but little to no precipitation is expected. Turning rather cool Tuesday with more clouds but little chance for measurable rainfall. High pressure will be well offshore of the SE coast on Sunday, as as a potent shortwave trough dives SE from the Canadian Prairies to the Great Lakes. A cold front will approach the area on Sun, but surface low pressure will remain well off to our N through the day, tracking from NE OH to eastern PA/NW NJ by late aftn/evening. The pressure gradient really tightens up as this occurs, and with very warm temperatures and good mixing, a breezy to windy afternoon is expected with gusts of 25-30 mph likely. The airmass in the lee of the Appalachians remains very dry so any showers/storms approaching from the N and W look to dry up before reaching the CWA (County Warning Area) in the evening. High Sunday should reach into the lower 80s for most of the region under a mainly sunny sky (with some increase in high clouds late). The airmass remains mixed Sunday night, so lows will be much warmer, generally in the 60-65F range for most areas (in the 50s across the NW). Upper troughing amplifies to our north Sunday night and Mon, as surface low pressure deepens near the Canadian Maritimes on Mon. This feature will drag the cold front through the area. With the front crossing the area, breezy conditions will continue (gusts to 20-30 mph likely during the day), as winds turn to the WNW by later Monday morning in most areas (by afternoon in the SE). This is a bit faster than the past few runs so the sky will become partly-mostly sunny aside and Probability of Precipitation will be ~10% or less except along the coast of the eastern shore in the morning where slight chance Probability of Precipitation will be maintained. Temps rise into the mid/upper 60s NW to the mid/upper 70s far SE by early afternoon before falling into the upper 50s or 60s by early evening. Temps will fall into the 40s to near 50 Monday night, as winds slowly diminish. The core of the upper low becomes cutoff over Quebec on Tuesday, with a large scale shortwave forecast to drop south from the midwest to the TN Valley and Carolinas by aftn/evening. It will likely start off partly/mostly sunny, but with a significant increase in clouds by late morning/afternoon with very cold air aloft. Soundings generally show a saturated layer from ~800mb to near 500mb so would anticipate mostly cloudy skies and perhaps a few sprinkles or a light shower late in the day. Quite cool with highs only in the upper 50s NW to lower 60s SE. Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Saturday As of 315pm EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Dry but with below normal temperatures expected Wednesday- Thursday, with a trend back to near normal into next weekend. - Patchy frost will be possible over the piedmont Tuesday night/Wed morning, with a better chance for areas of frost and near freezing temperatures across much of the area away from the immediate coast Wednesday night/early Thursday. A deep upper trough (500mb height anomalies of -2 to -3 sigma) will still be in place from Atlantic Canada SW into the SE CONUS through Wednesday night, gradually shifting east offshore by Thursday. At the sfc, a strong area of high pressure (>1030 mb), is forecast to drop south from the upper midwest Tuesday night, becoming centered across the OH/TN Valley on Wednesday, before drifting east into the local area Wednesday night into Thursday. This setup will continue to bring well below normal temperatures to the FA, with lows Tuesday night/Wednesday morning in the mid 30s to around 40F along and W of I-95, and generally in the 40s to the east. Highs Wednesday only rise into the upper 50s to lower 60s. There should be more sunshine compared to Tuesday, though the NE 1/2 of the CWA will tend to see SCT-BKN afternoon clouds. The coolest night will likely be Wednesday night/Thursday as the surface high becomes more favorably located near the area, with frost likely for at least the I-95 corridor and pts W, and at least possible for interior sections of SE VA/NE NC. Given the strength of the surface high, have gone with the cooler edge of guidance, forecasting mins into the low- mid 30s for rural areas along and W of the I-95 corridor, with mid/upper 30s to around 40F for the east (and locally in the mid to upper 40s at the immediate coast). Continued dry and cool Thursday with highs into the lower 60s for most under a sunny sky and light winds. Another night potentially seeing at least patchy frost can be expected Thursday night/early Friday as the latest model runs including the ensembles and NBM are slower to push the surface high off the coast. Current forecast is for lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Temperatures warm back closer to normal Fri- Sat with highs into the mid/upper 60s to lower 70s and lows in the 40s Fri night. Marine As of 245pm EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Relatively benign boating conditions today and tonight with SW winds around 10 kt. - An extended period of Small Craft Advisories are in effect starting Sunday afternoon as a series of strong cold fronts move through the region. Surface high pressure is gradually shifting offshore this afternoon. To our N, there is a stationary front draped from E to W from the northern Mid-Atlantic into the Midwest states. This front will drop through the area late Sunday. Locally this afternoon, winds are W or SW at 5- 10 kt. Seas are 2-3 ft and waves 1 ft or less in the bay. Similar winds are expected into tonight, perhaps increasing a few kt after midnight. The pressure gradient tightens into Sunday morning with 10- 15 kt winds (and gusts to 20 kt) by or just after sunrise, increasing further to 15-20 kt by the afternoon ahead of the cold front and a low pressure system to our N. The strongest winds are still expected Sunday evening and Sunday night and small craft advisories are in effect for all marine zones. Based on latest guidance, pushed up the start of the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) a few hours to the early afternoon hours Sunday. SSW winds of 20-25 kt are expected by Sunday evening into early Monday as W-SW h85 LLJ pushes into and over the area. The surface low to the north is forecast to deepen slightly Sunday night, with some CAMs continuing to show winds briefly increasing to ~25-30 kt across the northern coastal waters during this period after 00z/14 (8 pm Sunday night). Some gusts to ~35 kt do still appear possible for the Chesapeake Bay and the Atlantic coastal zones north of Cape Charles Sunday night just ahead of the frontal passage, and in-house wind probabilities are still around 50% for >34 kt gusts in these coastal water zones. After collaborating with WFO PHI to our N, along with the short duration of these gusts, feel it remains prudent to not issue any Gale headlines at this time. If these higher gusts are realized, special marine warnings will be issued as necessary. The front crosses the area near or just after sunrise Monday, shifting the winds W and then NW. Winds remain elevated in the 15-25 kt range through most of Monday in the post-frontal/cold advection regime and SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) are also in effect for this period. Winds do still look slacken to sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels Tuesday, before another front crosses the waters Tuesday night, with additional SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. Cool high pressure then builds in for the mid-late week period. In terms of waves/seas, seas 2-3 ft and waves ~1 ft continue through most of tonight. Building easterly swell and SSW wind swell then ramps seas up to 4-6 ft Sunday night through Monday, with some potential short period wind waves ramping seas up to 6-7 ft across the northern waters. Waves in the bay are expected to average 2-4 ft during this Sunday night-Monday period. Waves/seas gradually ramp down Monday night and especially Tuesday, before elevating again to 3-4 ft Tuesday night and Wednesday. A moderate rip current risk remains in place today at all area beaches, dropping to a low risk for Virginia Beach and OBX Currituck Sunday (remaining moderate N). Note that the final regularly issued surf zone forecast (SRFAKQ) of the year was issued yesterday, with rip current/surf zone forecasts to resume in May. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 1pm this afternoon to 10pm EDT Monday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 7pm this evening to 7pm EDT Monday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 4pm this afternoon to 7pm EDT Monday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory from 4pm this afternoon to 10pm EDT Monday for ANZ638-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 1pm this afternoon to 1am EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654. |
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