Marine Weather Net

VA-NC border to Currituck Beach Light, NC out 20 nm Marine Forecast


REST OF TODAY

W
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TUE

SW
WINDS
15
KNOTS

TUE NIGHT

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ658 Forecast Issued: 950 AM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021

Rest Of Today...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw This Afternoon, Then Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt Late. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Dominant Period 9 Seconds.
Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 10 Seconds.
Tue...Sw Winds 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Subsiding To 2 Ft In The Late Morning And Afternoon. Dominant Period 9 Seconds.
Tue Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Dominant Period 9 Seconds.
Wed...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming 15 Kt Late. Seas Around 3 Ft. Dominant Period 9 Seconds.
Wed Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. Dominant Period 4 Seconds.
Thu...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft.
Thu Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.
Fri...Ne Winds 15 Kt. Seas Around 4 Ft.
Fri Night...Ne Winds 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1011am EDT Monday September 27 2021

Synopsis
High pressure will slide off the coast this afternoon. A cold front is expected to cross the region late Tuesday into Tuesday night, bringing a chance for showers and isolated storms. High pressure returns for Wednesday through Friday.

Near Term - Through Tonight
As of 1005am EDT Monday... Late this morning, broad surface high pressure was anchored over the Mid Atlantic and SE U.S. Under a sunny or mostly sunny sky, temps ranged from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Warming trend begins today, as high pressure starts to move offshore, turning winds to the SW. High temps will rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s, with dew points slowly inching upward into the mid to upper 50s by this evening. A few fair weather cumulus are possible this afternoon along with some high cirrus. Mostly clear tonight with low temps in the upper 50s to mid 60s as low level moisture continues to increase.

Short Term - Tuesday Through Wednesday Night
As of 305am EDT Monday... Surface high pressure becomes suppressed to the southeast of the local area on Tuesday with continued southwesterly winds. A weak surface trough develops across the region Tuesday in response to an upper trough digging across the Northeast. Decent surface heating and cooling aloft associated with the upper trough will serve to steepen both low and mid level lapse rates by the afternoon hours resulting in modest instability when combined with surface dew points in the low to mid 60s. Moderate WNW flow aloft and SW surface flow will result in 25-30 kt of deep layer shear Tuesday afternoon. Favorable overlap of instability and shear will support the potential for a few strong to severe storms along and ahead of the cold front Tuesday afternoon and evening and Storm Prediction Center has included the northern half of the area in a Marginal Risk for severe storms. Though any severe threat will rapidly wane with loss of heating in the evening, additional showers and storms will remain possible before midnight. Highest PoPs across the northeast half of the area in closer proximity to the better upper level forcing. Rather warm ahead of the front Tuesday with high temperatures in the low/mid 80s and moderately humid with dewpoints rising into the 60s. Overnight lows fall into the upper 50s and low 60s in the post frontal airmass.

High pressure builds to the north on Wednesday with northerly surface winds and highs ranging from the low 70s for the MD Eastern Shore to the low 80s for southern VA and northern NC. A secondary (dry) cold front crosses the area Wednesday night with lows in the 50s inland and perhaps low 60s near the coast.

Long Term - Thursday Through Sunday
As of 305am EDT Monday... The region should remain dry for the late week period with an upper low taking shape across New England and Atlantic Canada, keeping the local area in dry NW flow aloft on Thursday. Expect a return to more seasonable temperatures and humidity through Friday with high temperatures generally in the 70s and low temperatures in the 50s.

Model guidance has come into somewhat better agreement regarding the evolution of the NE upper low this weekend. Consensus shows the low becoming displaced to the northeast as upper ridging builds into the region from the SW, resulting in a dry forecast for the weekend. Afternoon high temps continue in the lower to mid 70s and overnight lows generally in the 50s.

Marine
As of 1000am EDT Monday... Surface hi pressure centered just SSW of the local waters gradually drifts E through the day. W/SW winds generally 5-10 kt becoming SW (SW/S over the coastal waters) this afternoon, increasing to 10-15 kt late. Waves 1-2 ft and seas 2-3 ft. Winds increase to 15-20 kt over the Ches Bay and coastal waters tonight, remaining 10-15 kt over the rivers (15 kt over the lower James River). Have expanded SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) to include all of the Ches Bay from 10 PM-7 AM with an earlier start time for the upper Bay at 7 PM. Waves 1-3 ft/seas 2-4 ft tonight. Ahead of a cold front approaching from the NNW...WSW winds at or below 15 kt Tue...then become N Tuesday evening/night post cold front. Wind probs remain BLO 30-40% for SCA (Small Craft Advisory) windspeeds on N surge behind the front into Wed. Generally quiet marine weather at the end of the week into the weekend...though swells will likely increase due to TC tracking N well off the coast.

Low rip current risk today.

NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory from 10pm this evening to 7am EDT Tuesday for ANZ631-632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 7pm this evening to 7am EDT Tuesday for ANZ630.