Marine Weather Net

Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key Marine Forecast


TODAY

N
WINDS
25
KNOTS

TONIGHT

NE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

WEDNESDAY

ENE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

WEDNESDAY NIGHT

E
WINDS
10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ042 Forecast Issued: 633 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT
Today...North Winds Near 25 Knots, Becoming Northeast 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters Extremely Rough, Becoming A Light To Moderate Chop. Isolated Showers.
Tonight...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light To Moderate Chop.
Wednesday...Northeast To East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light To Moderate Chop.
Wednesday Night...East Winds Near 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light Chop.
Thursday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas Building To 2 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light To Moderate Chop, Becoming Choppy. Isolated Showers.
Thursday Night...East To Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Increasing To 20 To 25 Knots. Seas Building To 3 To 5 Feet. Nearshore Waters Choppy, Becoming Very Rough. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.
Friday...Southeast Winds 20 To 25 Knots, Decreasing To 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet, Subsiding To 2 To 4 Feet. Nearshore Waters Very Rough, Becoming Choppy. Numerous Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.
Friday Night...South Winds Near 15 Knots, Becoming South To Southwest. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Moderate Chop. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.
Saturday...Southwest Winds Near 15 Knots, Becoming West To Northwest In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Moderate Chop. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.
Saturday Night...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet, Except 3 To 4 Feet West Of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore Waters Choppy. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
643am EDT Tuesday Mar 19 2024

Issued at 450am EDT Tuesday Mar 19 2024

We're off to a surprisingly wet and thundery start this Tuesday morning across the Florida Keys. Yesterday evening, a broken line of Cuban thunderstorms meandered into the Straits of Florida towards the island chain. While most convection dissipated before reaching land, a lone shower swept through the western Lower Keys before falling apart. After midnight, northwesterly breezes started to filter over the island chain and promoted moisture convergence fueling convective development as originally forecast. However, instead of being confined to the Straits, showers and thunderstorms erupted along the Lower and Middle Keys breaking through the dry air in the middle layers sampled from yesterday evening's sounding. In fact, this line developed so quickly that it's reminiscent of a cloud line on a summer day. Temperatures across the island chain have fallen into the lower to mid 70s in response to the rainfall. Wind observations along the Reef are generally contaminated by storm outflow, but show a trend of veering breezes to the northwest as a cold front approaches from the Gulf.

The cold front on our doorstep will sweep through our area this morning. Northerly breezes along the island chain, as well as a southerly shift of the convergence boundary already hint at this motion. By sunrise, most of the convection will have shifted off land into the Straits, but another round is pushing through from the Gulf waters. This line does not look nearly as robust as this morning's activity with CAMs generally suggesting it will fall apart before arriving to the island chain. That being said, slight chance Probability of Precipitation are held for the rest of today as the air mass transitions from moist to dry. Fresh to strong northerly breezes are imminent across our waters and are expected to persist into this afternoon before continuing to shift to the northeast and gradually slackening through tonight.

Cooler and drier weather will follow into the end of the week when a period of unsettled weather is expected. A trough sliding through the Great Plains towards the Gulf coast will parent a surface low in the Gulf of Mexico sometime Thursday evening. As this low approaches Florida, breezes will freshen out of the east to southeast Thursday night into Friday over our CWA. While the exact position of the low will be the final determining factor for intensity, Small Craft Advisories may be required for this time period. The low will also pull in a large amount of moisture resulting in enhanced Probability of Precipitation from Thursday night through Saturday. Guidance continues to favor Friday for the highest chances but due to this event being still a few days away with the major feature yet to develop will hold at 60% for now. Another round of drier and cooler weather will be on tap after Saturday night as the low is expected to drive another cold front through the area for the start of next week.

Marine
Issued at 643am EDT Tuesday Mar 19 2024

The marine forecast has been updated to increase winds for this morning. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Florida Keys coastal waters. From the synopsis, strong northerly breezes this morning in the wake of a cold front will become northeast and slacken this afternoon. Breezes will turn easterly and diminish tonight through Wednesday. Unsettled weather at the end of the week will result in fresh to strong breezes Thursday night and Friday, followed by breezes shifting to the southwest then northwest at the tail-end of the unsettled weather.

NOAA Key West FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...Wind Advisory until 9am EDT this morning for FLZ078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11am EDT this morning for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052>055-072>075.

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