Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef, FL Out 20 nm Marine Forecast
|Tonight...East Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Period 3 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers In The Evening. Chance Of Thunderstorms Through The Night. Showers Likely After Midnight.|
|Sunday...South Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Period 4 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Showers Likely And Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Sunday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Period 5 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Monday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Less Than 2 Feet. Period 3 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers In The Morning. Chance Of Thunderstorms. Showers Likely In The Afternoon.|
|Monday Night...West Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Less Than 2 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Tuesday...West Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Less Than 2 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Tuesday Night...West Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop.|
|Wednesday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Wednesday Night...South Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Thursday...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning. Chance Of Showers|
| AMZ600: Synopsis for Jupiter Inlet to Ocean Reef FL out to 60 nm and for East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach FL out to 60 nm|
403 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021
Light to moderate easterly/southeasterly winds should prevail through early next week. Scattered to at times numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected. Winds and seas may be locally higher in and around any showers or thunderstorms.
Gulf Stream Hazards: None
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream as of Oct 22, 2021 at 1200 UTC...
- 18 nautical miles northeast of Fowey Rocks.
- 15 nautical miles east southeast of Port Everglades.
- 14 nautical miles east southeast of Lake Worth.
- 15 nautical miles east northeast of Jupiter Inlet.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Miami FL
348pm EDT Sat Oct 23 2021
Short Term - Today Through Sunday
A broad mid to upper level trough will remain over the Eastern United States through rest of this weekend, as a stationary front remains over South Florida. This will allow for an light easterly surface flow to remain over the region, while the mid to upper level flow will be from the south southwest. This will keep deep tropical moisture in place over South Florida through this weekend. Therefore, scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop this afternoon over the interior areas and push slowly back to the east coast metro areas into the early evening hours before moving into the Atlantic waters tonight. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible again on Sunday over South Florida especially over the eastern areas.
With the deep tropical moisture in place, the PWAT (Precipitable Water) values will also remain in the 2 to 2.1 inch range through Sunday afternoon. This will allow for some heavy rainfall to occur over South Florida with the showers and thunderstorms.
Lows tonight will be in the 70s across South Florida with highs on Sunday in the mid to upper 80s. Due to the deep moisture in place, the heat indices will be lower to mid 90s on Sunday over South Florida.
Long Term - Sunday Night through Friday
Monday looks to be the transition day from moist to dry. Low level flow out of the south/southwest will veer through the westerly direction, and the upper pattern will shift as the subtropical jet dips further south and a shortwave moves through the Midwest. This pattern shift will spread large-scale subsidence/drying into the region on Monday night. But through the day on Monday, expect scattered showers and storms to remain - primarily forced by a weak low-level response as the subtropical jet starts to dip south resulting in at least some increased low-level convergence. Tuesday and Wednesday look dry, with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s across the interior, and low 70s nearer to the coasts.
Thursday through Friday, a strong shortwave will close off over the MS Valley and slowly cut-off over the Mid-Atlantic by the start of the weekend. While global models had been in good agreement surrounding the timing of this frontal system, the latest runs have some discrepancies between the datasets. There is a little more support for the progressive solution that would result in full frontal passage by Friday morning, so without removing Probability of Precipitation completely have trended the forecast in this direction. Depending on the timing of the front there could be a window Thursday afternoon/evening for a heightened severe weather potential in the form of primarily damaging winds with a tornado or two not completely out of the question. These details will have more clarity as the forecast period draws closer.
Winds will be easterly at 5 to 10 knots tonight into Sunday before swinging to a south southwest direction early next week. The winds will then remain south southwest but increase to 10 to 15 knots by middle to end of next week. This will keep the seas at 2 feet or less in both the Atlantic and Gulf waters of South Florida rest of this weekend into next week. Therefore, boating conditions looks good through next week outside of any showers or thunderstorms.
NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.