Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef, FL Out 20 nm Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...Southwest Winds 5 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Period 6 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Light Showers In The Morning.|
|Tonight...Southwest Winds 5 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Period 5 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Light Showers Through The Night.|
|Thursday...Northwest Winds 5 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Period 4 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers In The Morning.|
|Thursday Night...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming East Southeast After Midnight. Seas Around 2 Feet. Period 5 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop.|
|Friday...South Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers.|
|Friday Night...South Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers Through The Night. Chance Of Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Saturday...West Winds 10 To 20 Knots With Gusts To Around 25 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Showers Likely.|
|Saturday Night...North Northwest Winds 15 To 25 Knots With Gusts To Around 30 Knots. Along The Coast, Seas Around 2 Feet. In The Gulf Stream, Seas 2 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas To 5 Feet Building To 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas To 8 Feet After Midnight. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers Late In The Evening.|
|Sunday...North Winds 10 To 20 Knots With Gusts To Around 25 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet Along The Coast And 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional To 8 Feet In The Gulf Stream. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop.|
AMZ600: Synopsis for Jupiter Inlet to Ocean Reef FL out to 60 nm and for East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach FL out to 60 nm|
931 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2020
Southerly to southwesterly winds are expected today ahead of a weak weather disturbance progged to move through late this evening through tomorrow morning. Mostly dry conditions are expected through Wednesday afternoon with the chance for showers (and possibly an isolated thunderstorm) increasing by Wednesday night. Dry conditions return for Thursday, with shower and thunderstorm chances increasing Friday into Saturday.
Gulf Stream Hazards: None.
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream as of Jan 28, 2020 at 1200 UTC...
- 5 nautical miles east of Fowey Rocks.
- 12 nautical miles east southeast of Port Everglades.
- 9 nautical miles east northeast of Lake Worth.
- 11 nautical miles east southeast of Jupiter Inlet.
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Miami FL
941am EST Wednesday Jan 29 2020
The previous forecast appears to be on track. A few showers will be possible across the Atlantic waters today with a few waterspouts possible along a boundary parked offshore. Winds become southwesterly this afternoon with rain chances starting to increase tonight as the next system approaches the area. A few thunderstorms will be possible across the far offshore Gulf waters this evening.
.Prev /issued 623am EST Wednesday Jan 29 2020/
Aviation... Prevailing VFR is anticipated for the eastern terminals, but areas of low clouds and/or fog are possible, mainly over interior portions of South Florida early this morning. Chances for these to impact the TAF sites appears low, but will monitor for possible changes. Light N winds early this morning before shifting from the E then SE then SW throughout the day today. Additional clouds will move into the area late this afternoon with increasing shower chances during the overnight hours from west to east. VFR and dry conditions prevail across all terminals after 12Z Thursday with NW winds.
Prev /issued 257am EST Wednesday Jan 29 2020/
Today through Tonight... Weak troughing just offshore the east coast is sparking early morning showers across the Atlantic waters. These are widely isolated and shallow in nature and are capped by a stable 800mb- 750mb layer. High pressure across the SE CONUS will drift eastward over the course of the day while a low pressure in the northern GOMEX continues its voyage ESE and towards the FL peninsula today. This weather pattern will allow for the wind regime over South FL to go from a northerly flow early this morning to a southerly/southwesterly flow by this afternoon. With an easterly component intertwined with the wind shift today, kept chance of Probability of Precipitation across the east coast and the Atlantic waters through this afternoon.
The aforementioned approaching low pressure will drag a cold front across the region overnight tonight into early tomorrow morning. With this system comes the increase in Probability of Precipitation areawide with numerous coverage over the Gulf waters and west coast and scattered coverage elsewhere. Introduced a chance of thunder solely in the Gulf waters as instability looks greatest there, but kept at only 15 percent. The rest of the CWA should just see shower activity. Once the system finally pushes offshore, rain chances will be taken with it, ending from west to east by Thursday morning.
One thing to keep in mind is that there is a nonzero chance that a few of these showers overnight could produce some gusty winds over South Florida, especially over the western areas, as the far southern periphery of a mid-upper level jet stretches over the far northern portions of the CWA, including the Lake Okeechobee region. The jet doesn't look too impressive in nature but it does carry winds of about 30 to 60 knots. Forecast soundings, again moreso for the west coast, do have 30 to 40 knot winds in the 850-700mb layer so this in combination with the jet could allow for these stronger winds to mix down and produce isolated strong wind gusts.
Temperatures today are forecast to climb into the mid to upper 70s with near 80 in the southern portions of the Everglades. Overnight lows in the low to mid 60s across the east coast with mid to upper 50s elsewhere.
Long Term... Thursday through Tuesday Night... Some ridging at 500mb behind the cold front. This will bring some quiet weather for Thursday, with the front stalled to the south. There is a 250 mb jet centered over north Florida as well. While this should not significantly affect the weather on Thursday, it will come into play for the end of the week.
By Friday afternoon, a strong 500mb trough is digging south over the Great plains. There is a strong 850mb baroclinic zone stretched east/west over the Gulf of Mexico. As the trough digs south, it begins to interact with the baroclinic zone to cause cyclogenesis at the surface. This new surface low also interacts with the stalled front over the Florida Straits, bringing it northward over South Florida as a warm front. This provides some isentropic lift over South Florida for Friday afternoon, which will allow for showers to spread across the area. The 250 mb jet also lift northward, but has a small branch over the area by early Saturday morning. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) increase to almost 2 inches Friday night and early Saturday morning. Also, the low brings a cold front into the area. Tracing the 1000-500mb thickness back, it appear to be Arctic in nature, if not at least from northern Canada. So, the front should bring a chilly air mass to South Florida.
With such a temperature gradient, the cold front should be fairly vigorous, and bring rain showers through Friday night. The interaction of the small branch of the jet, the moisture, and the instability ahead of the front, may allow for a few thunderstorms to develop. Currently, the forecast has the best chances offshore, over the Atlantic waters, but still keeps a slight chance over the Atlantic metro areas of Broward and Miami Dade counties, mainly between 06z and 12z Saturday.
The actual frontal passage should occur through the day on Saturday, which keeps a chance to likely showers in the forecast for the day on Saturday for the entire area. The front is currently forecast to exit the Atlantic coast before 00z Sunday. But some shower activity may linger behind the front, keeping a mention in the forecast for the far southern portion of the area through the evening hours.
Behind the front, high pressure builds in for the remainder of the forecast period. Low temperatures Sunday should be around 10F cooler than Saturdays lows. The highs on Sunday are forecast to be around 70 across the area with dew points in the 40s to around 50, and the wind out of the north between 5 and 10 kts, making for an excellent day for outdoor activities, especially in northern Miami Dade County.
The cool temperatures are forecast to continue through Sunday night, with lows Monday morning in the mid 40s for a good portion of the interior, to low 50s along the Gulf Coast and mid 50s for the Atlantic coast. After Monday morning, a warming trend begins.
Marine... Northerly winds this morning will gradually shift from the south/southwest by this afternoon. Wind speeds increase late tonight into early tomorrow morning with Small Craft exercising caution across portions of the Atlantic waters. Winds could increase enough to warrant a Small Craft Advisory during this time frame for the outer Atlantic waters offshore Palm Beach County so this will need to be watched as the day progresses.
The northeast swells will continue to slowly decrease and retreat northward over the Atlantic waters today. This will keep seas at 2 feet or less in the Atlantic and Gulf waters, except around 3 feet in the Atlantic waters off Palm Beach County. Seas increase to 3 to 4 feet Thursday morning before briefly decreasing Friday afternoon. Seas are forecast to build once again across the local waters Sunday morning in the wake of a low pressure system. Seas building up to 6 feet in the Gulf and up to 9 feet in the Gulf Stream.
Beach Forecast... The threat of rip currents will continue to decrease today as previous days swells retreat northward. With that in mind, a moderate risk for rip currents will prevail across the Palm Beaches today with a low risk of rip currents for the remainder of the Atlantic and Gulf beaches of South Florida.
NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.
Update...32/MM Marine...03/Fell Aviation...03/Fell Beach Forecast...03/Fell
03/Fell Long Term...13