Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef, FL Out 20 nm Marine Forecast
|Today...South Winds 10 Knots. Seas Less Than 2 Feet. Period 3 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop.|
|Tonight...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Less Than 2 Feet. Period 3 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop.|
|Saturday...South Southwest Winds 10 Knots. Seas Less Than 2 Feet. Period 3 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Saturday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Less Than 2 Feet. Period 3 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms Through The Night.|
|Sunday...South Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Less Than 2 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Sunday Night...South Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Less Than 2 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms Through The Night.|
|Monday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Less Than 2 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Monday Night And Tuesday...East Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Less Than 2 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
AMZ600: Synopsis for Jupiter Inlet to Ocean Reef FL out to 60 nm and for East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach FL out to 60 nm|
344 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020
Generally benign boating conditions are expected through the forecast period. Only exception will be in the vicinity of thunderstorms, which will bring brief periods of rough seas, gusty winds, lightning, small hail, and possible waterspouts. A wetter pattern returns early next week.
Gulf Stream Hazards: Thunderstorms with lightning, gusty winds, small hail, and potential for waterspouts.
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream as of Jul 02, 2020 at 1200 UTC...
- 8 nautical miles east southeast of Fowey Rocks.
- 11 nautical miles east southeast of Port Everglades.
- 9 nautical miles east of Lake Worth.
- 13 nautical miles east southeast of Jupiter Inlet.
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Miami FL
350am EDT Fri July 3 2020
.Discussion... Short Term (Today through Saturday night):
Overall synoptic pattern across the region remains fairly stagnant during the short term with models showing broad high pressure persisting over the Gulf area, while a semi-stationary frontal boundary stretches from the AR/OK region to the southern Atlantic seaboard. A weak low is slowly migrating into the west Atlantic just east of the GA/SC coast. Meanwhile, the Atlantic high remains centered east enough from Florida to keep the peninsula under a generally weak southerly flow during the next several days, with periods of winds becoming light or even calm. Thus, daytime heating will again be very efficient in pushing afternoon temperatures into the mid-upper 90s.
The described synoptic scenario will translate in having another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms as sea breeze boundaries become the focal point for deep convection. As in the past couple of days, expect the Atlantic sea breeze to remain close to the east coast metro areas and bring isolated to scattered coverage, especially during the late afternoon/early evening hours. Outflow boundary collisions should also contribute to localized enhanced lifting until the last of the convection finally dissipates.
A source of uncertainty remains regarding a low being shown by the short range models, potentially developing over the MS/AL coastline. While latest model solutions seem to be in better agreement regarding the formation of this low, its still unclear how it may change the overall synoptic picture for Saturday, or if this feature will actually move into the Gulf waters and create significant changes to the ongoing forecast philosophy for Saturday. Regardless, POPS/WX coverage across SoFlo do increase Saturday afternoon. Forecast will carry 30-40 POPS across the Atlantic metro areas this afternoon, and up to 50% on Saturday.
Expect the warm temperatures and muggy conditions to continue with afternoon highs in the lower to mid 90s across South Florida. Heat indices will also climb into the 102 to 108 range each afternoon, but just shy of advisory criteria.
Long Term (Sunday through Thursday):
The extended period will feature rather weak mid/upper-level flow across the CONUS, with the PFJ generally confined to the higher latitudes of the CONUS and southern Canada. This synoptic pattern will allow for a quasi-stationary frontal boundary to remain draped across the southeastern CONUS, where deterministic global model solutions depict multiple southward progressing shortwave impulses rounding a mid/upper-level high situated over western Mexico. Due to the small-scale nature of these cyclonic perturbations, increased uncertainty remains in the extended forecast period regarding the evolution of the synoptic pattern across South Florida. Nevertheless, present indications are that an area of low pressure will develop along the aforementioned quasi-stationary boundary in response to multiple progressive mid-level shortwave impulses traversing the boundary, with broad mid-level high pressure situated across the Caribbean and Florida Straits.
Sunday and Monday... Depending on the evolution of the aforementioned area of low pressure across the northern Gulf Coast vicinity, rich sub- tropical or even tropical moisture could be drawn northward in association with a low-level poleward mass flux, generally supporting increased convective coverage/activity across South Florida. Westerly to southwesterly deep-layer flow would be favored in this synoptic pattern, generally leading to increased rain and thunderstorm chances across the interior and eastern portions of South Florida. At this time, the mode and intensity of convection that may materialize in this southwesterly upper-flow pattern is difficult to determine (owing to crucial mesoscale influences), though a modest enhancement to the mid-level southwesterly flow amid abundant/increasing moisture and weak forcing could support semi-organized convection along favorable regions of enhanced mesoscale ascent. Localized heavy rainfall which could lead to urban/street flooding, locally strong wind gusts, and frequent lightning will all be possible with the strongest convective structures. Maximum temperatures will be slightly above average, with lower 90s anticipated across the Atlantic coast of South Florida, and middle to upper 90s across the interior and Gulf Coast.
Tuesday through Thursday... Medium-range model guidance depicts western Atlantic high pressure briefly building across South Florida following the departure/weakening of the aforementioned area of low pressure. This should lead to relatively weak deep-layer flow across South Florida and easterly surface flow, supporting diurnally driven sea-breeze convection each afternoon. Maximum temperatures are forecast to remain slightly above average across South Florida though this period, with lower to middle 90s across the eastern portions of South Florida, and upper 90s across the western portions.
Generally benign boating conditions should prevail over the coastal waters through the forecast period. Only exception will be with any thunderstorms that may form, which will bring brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds.
.Aviation... VFR prevails at all terminals through around 16-17Z when sea breezes begin to develop along both coastlines. With a weak/light wind flow continuing today, the Atlantic sea breeze boundary should become again the focal point for showers and thunderstorms, especially between 20Z-24Z. Winds remain light and variable this morning, then mainly SSE over the Atlantic terminals and SSW over APF with the sea breeze pushing inland during the afternoon hours.
NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.
Marine...17/AR Aviation...17/AR Short Term
17/AR Long Term...18/Weinman