Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef, FL Out 20 nm Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Less Than 2 Ft Or Less. Wave Detail: Se 1 Foot At 3 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms After Midnight. |
| Tue...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Less Than 2 Ft Or Less. Wave Detail: Se 1 Foot At 3 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters Light Chop. |
| Tue Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Less Than 2 Ft Or Less. Wave Detail: E 1 Foot At 3 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms After Midnight. |
| Wed...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Less Than 2 Ft Or Less. Wave Detail: Se 1 Foot At 3 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters Light Chop. A Chance Of Tstms. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Wed Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Less Than 2 Ft Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft After Midnight. Wave Detail: Se 1 Foot At 3 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters Light Chop. A Chance Of Tstms. Showers Likely Early In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers In The Late Evening And Overnight. |
| Thu...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft In The Morning, Then 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: Se 1 Foot At 4 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Thu Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Less Than 2 Ft Or Less. Intracoastal Waters Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Fri...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Less Than 2 Ft Or Less. Intracoastal Waters Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Fri Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Sat...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft In The Morning, Then 1 Foot Or Less. Intracoastal Waters Light Chop. A Chance Of Tstms. A Chance Of Showers Until Late Afternoon, Then Showers Likely Late. |
| Sat Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 629pm EDT Monday August 24 2026 Issued at 607pm EDT Monday August 24 2026 22z ACARS data from local South Florida airports in tandem with a look at the GOES East's Dust Composite depicts the continued influence of a diffuse plume of Saharan Dust across the region this evening. Outside of one or two taller convective cores over the last several hours, lackluster lapse rates and a "synoptic desert" aloft have kept convection spatially and temporally in check. With the loss of insolation in short order, diurnal convection should continue to wane in areal coverage with relatively quiet conditions forecast for most of us for the remainder of the overnight period. A subtle easterly flow enhancement and moisture surge late tonight into early Tuesday could result in shower and thunderstorms chances increasing across the nearshore Atlantic waters by daybreak. Only other forecast item to pass along is that while several fires have been fully contained over the past 24 hours, the relatively large Chipmunk fire continues to actively burn in the Everglades. The mean surface wind flow overnight is expected to be light and variable which could result in reduced air quality across inland locales overnight as a nocturnal inversion develops and keeps any lingering smoke close to the ground. .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 141pm EDT Monday August 24 2026 Like a proverbial phoenix rising from the ashes, diurnal convection in the form of incipient updrafts has once again sparked up along the east coast sea-breeze early this afternoon. Flow remains fairly light in the atmospheric column today as the region remains in a col in between two areas of surface ridging. Aloft, a slight perturbation in the 500mb wind field aloft reveals the presence of a weak shortwave across Central Florida that is forecast to gradually dig southeastward our area during the remainder of today. While the cold pool(a region of relatively cold air) aloft associated with this feature isn't particularly noteworthy (500mb temperatures remain near the daily mean for today's date), enough low level boundary surface moisture and marginal low-level lapse rates will result in additional scattered shower and thunderstorm activity developing and propagating across portions of the region through the early evening hours. While we remain in an area of light surface flow, the surface ridge situated across the western Atlantic waters will still exert just enough background influence today that surface flow across most of the region will remain out of a light south- southwesterly direction. KAMX radar and GOES East imagery continue to depict the Atlantic sea-breeze making a continual beeline/push inland, bolstered by reinforcing outflow boundaries (and cold pools) from waning convection on the stable side of the boundary over the east coast metro. The confluence of these outflow boundaries and the Gulf breeze should result in continued thunderstorm development across southern and central inland areas (Everglades and Alligator Alley) before the maxima of convection focuses across the Lake Okeechobee region, with a potential drift back eastwards towards north and central Palm Beach County late in the afternoon/early evening hours. Lapse rates and synoptic influences remain lackluster overall, but enough residual dry air remains in the vertical column when coupled with stout surface heating across the northern half of the region to support a potential threat of a few isolated strong wind gusts of 45- 55mph this afternoon as well as frequent to excessive lightning with the most robust cores. With the school season (and extracurricular outdoor activities) now upon us, ensuring that students and the public alike are safe from lightning is an important thing to keep in mind. An adage that is oft repeated by the National Weather Service is When Thunder Roars, Head Indoors and it is even more important given the unique Florida climate we find ourselves in where weather can often change on a dime. Even in these otherwise unassuming storm environments, mesoscale boundary collisions and brief amplified ascent could support a low-end potential (<5%) of an isolated severe wind gust with a brief pulse severe storm. The HREF and REFS both hint at the potential of isolated pockets of 2-4" of rainfall, mainly across the Everglades and Lake Okeechobee region. Unfortunately, the isolated nature of rainfall will once again present itself as feast or famine as several large wildfires continue to burn across the Everglades and Everglades & Francis S. Taylor Wildlife Area. High temperatures are forecast to peak in the low to mid 90s across the region over the next few hours with the caveat that any thunderstorm activity or anvil cloud cover will reduce temperatures in short order. Recent HRRR/RAP guidance once again suggests that a nocturnal surface inversion will develop across inland areas once again overnight, which may trap any residual smoke from the assortment of wildfires close to the ground across inland locales. Reduced visibility and air quality is possible downwind of these wildfires, especially along Tamiami Trail and Alligator Alley. This will continue to be evaluated overnight and in subsequent forecasts. Oceanic influences will keep overnight temperatures on the warm side along he coast with inland locales dropping into the low 70s by daybreak. The axis of surface ridging situated over the western Atlantic waters will build into the region on Tuesday which will result in an enhancement of easterly flow across our area. This will also usher in slightly more moisture into the local vertical column, which may result in slightly higher rain chances (50-60%) across inland locales on Tuesday afternoon. With the slight enhancement of easterly flow, the foci of afternoon convection will shift to inland southwestern Florida as the confluence of the Gulf breeze and Atlantic sea-breeze act to spark (no pun intended) thunderstorm activity. Aside from the maxima and placement of the greatest rainfall probability due to subtle flow changes, the storm scale environment will remain rather similar to today on Tuesday. Gusty winds, frequent to excessive lightning, and pockets of heavy rainfall will remain in the cards during the afternoon and early evening hours. High temperatures will reach the low to mid 90s across the majority of the region with the exception of a pocket of upper 90s across inland southwestern Florida as the inward prorogation of the gulf breeze may be more stunted by the easterly flow regime. Just like the rinse and repeat pattern of daytime convective initiation in the summertime, this forecaster will also be back. Long Term (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 123am EDT Monday August 24 2026 For the middle to end of this week and into next weekend, surface and low level high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will begin to expand back over the region and cause winds to shift back to an easterly or east-southeast direction. This easterly to east- southeast regime will produce a pattern that is common in the summertime across South Florida with convection being driven by the sea breeze circulations and being steered towards the Gulf coast areas. At the same time, the weak SAL (Saharan Air Layer) will dissipate by mid-week and allow for the deeper moisture to be utilized for widespread shower and thunderstorm development. At the same time, we will be monitoring for some weak disturbances and vorticity maxima forming off the Caribbean islands as much of the guidance is showing potential for these weak lows to form, mainly in the mid-levels and advect close to the region. Nevertheless, abundant moisture (PWATs (Precipitable Waters) 1.8-2.0+") will be present for Wed-Fri and into the weekend for any vorticity and diurnal heating instability to take advantage of. Highest rain chances (60-80%) each day will be across interior and Southwest Florida as the easterly to east- southeast wind regime favors these areas receiving the most widespread rain. High temperatures are projected to remain in the low to mid 90s each day. Overnight lows range from the low 70s across the interior and lake regions to the upper 70s and low 80s along the coastal metros. Marine Issued at 339pm EDT Monday August 24 2026 Light southerly winds are forecast to continue across the region through the mid-week period with the exception of locally elevated wind conditions in and around shower and thunderstorm activity. Seas will remain 1-2 feet or less each day. A northeasterly swell may arrive across the region late in the work week, particularly across the northern Atlantic waters. NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. |
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