Marine Weather Net

Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef, FL Out 20 nm Marine Forecast


REST OF TONIGHT

SSE
WINDS
10
KNOTS

WEDNESDAY

NE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SSE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

THURSDAY

SE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ651 Forecast Issued: 1001 PM EDT Tue May 17 2022

Rest Of Tonight...South Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots Becoming Southwest After Midnight. Seas Less Than 2 Feet. Period 2 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers Through The Night.
Wednesday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming East Southeast In The Afternoon. Seas Less Than 2 Feet. Period 2 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.
Wednesday Night...South Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Less Than 2 Feet. Period 2 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop.
Thursday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Less Than 2 Feet. Period 2 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Thursday Night...South Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers In The Evening. Chance Of Thunderstorms Through The Night. Showers Likely After Midnight.
Friday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Showers Likely In The Morning. Chance Of Thunderstorms. Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.
Friday Night...East Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Chance Of Showers In The Evening. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms Through The Night. Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Saturday...East Southeast Winds Around 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning. Chance Of Showers. Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Saturday Night...East Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Sunday...East Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
128am EDT Wednesday May 18 2022

(Issued 805pm EDT Tuesday May 17 2022)

UPDATE... Much quiet afternoon and early evening in terms of convection compared to the previous couple of days. Drier air filtering at the low levels kept potential for showers and storms limited, but a couple of strong storms did develop over central Miami-Dade and west Broward counties. A stray storm could still develop over interior/Lake region through the rest of the evening hours. Also, a few more showers could linger over the Atlantic waters tonight. Otherwise, generally benign weather should prevail through Wednesday.

Not much adjustments required for the evening update in terms of grids and/or forecast philosophy as inherited forecast remains on track. Expect another mild night with morning lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)... VFR through the TAF period. Winds will be light and variable overnight, increasing in the morning with the development of the sea and gulf breezes.

(Issued 222pm EDT Tuesday May 17 2022)

SHORT TERM... Now through Wednesday... Rain chances will be a bit lower today than the last couple as middle and upper level dry air has moved into the region. That said, the 12z RAOB (Radiosonde Observation or Upper-Air Observation) still shows rather steep mid level lapse rates and a signal for stronger winds with at least marginal DCAPE values. So, the stronger/wider updrafts may be capable of strong wind gusts. With the more lackluster low level flow across the region, sea/gulf breezes will move inland with convective initiation expected over the interior portions of South Florida and perhaps the western portions of the Atlantic metro. Otherwise, temperatures will be warming a good bit especially interior and western Atlantic metro where the warmest temperatures will reside given the low level flow regime.

Going into tonight, any residual convection should begin to decrease over land based zones, but offshore Atlantic will continue to have nocturnal convection especially over the outer waters. Otherwise, upper level heigheights will continue to increase through the remainder of the short term, which appears to be a bit more limited in terms of convection and perhaps a bit warmer with temperatures in the 90s over the favored interior and western Atlantic metro.

Long Term

Wednesday Night through Tuesday... A pattern change is on the horizon by Thursday as expansive troughing lifts away from the region. Behind the departing trough, mid-level ridging will advect into the region and remain established over the region through late week. At the surface, a large ridge of high pressure will gradually pivot eastward across the region which will act to shift prevailing surface wind across the region to an easterly direction across all of South Florida. The subtle switching of surface winds will allow for the beginning of a moist and unstable airmass to begin to advect into South Florida by late Thursday into Friday. Diurnal heating and mesoscale ascent along sea- breeze boundaries when coupled with extra instability and moisture will allow for scattered to numerous showers to be possible on Friday and Saturday afternoon. Localized flooding, and typical hazards associated with thunderstorm activity (lightning, gusty winds, etc) will be possible with afternoon/evening thunderstorms each afternoon.Numerical model guidance has come a little more into agreement over the last several runs, as both the European and the GFS both depict a slug of moisture lifting into the region. The GFS is currently the more "aggressive" of the two solutions as it depicts a fairly substantial amount of tropical moisture to lift up as well as a mid-level impulse across the region. On the other hand, while the European also shows tropical moisture lifting northward across the region, it is much weaker of a signal and not associated with any type of mid-level impulse.

Bottom line is that there is still considerable uncertainty about just how wet it will be this weekend, however convection should be primarily diurnal based along sea-breeze boundaries with the greatest chance of showers and thunderstorms remaining during the afternoon and early evening hours. Convection and resultant cloud cover will act to limit high temperatures late week into this weekend to trend more near average compared to the beginning of the extended period as highs on Thursday could reach the middle 90s across the interior. Overnight temperatures will remain warm and muggy as easterly onshore flow acts to keep moist and humid conditions throughout the overnight hours.

Marine
Mostly favorable marine conditions for the South Florida waters through the period as winds should remain overall light to moderate with favorable seas. Limited storm coverage is expected over the waters today through the mid-week period before the chance of storms increases late this week into this weekend.

BEACHES... Mostly favorable marine conditions for the South Florida waters through the period as winds should remain overall light to moderate with favorable seas. Limited storm coverage is expected over the waters today through the mid-week period before the chance of storms increases late this week into this weekend.

NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for FLZ168.

AM...None. GM...None.