Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Tonight...East To Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Decreasing To Near 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Subsiding To 3 To 5 Feet. |
| Thursday...Southeast Winds Near 15 Knots, Decreasing To Near 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Subsiding To 2 To 3 Feet In The Afternoon. |
| Thursday Night...Southeast To South Winds Near 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. |
| Friday...Southeast To South Winds Near 10 Knots, Becoming Variable. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. |
| Friday Night...Variable Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Southeast To South And Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet, Building To 2 To 3 Feet. |
| Saturday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming Southeast And Decreasing To Near 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet, Subsiding To 1 To 2 Feet. |
| Saturday Night...Variable Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming South And Increasing To Near 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. |
| Sunday...Southeast To South Winds Near 10 Knots, Becoming Variable 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Isolated Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Sunday Night...Variable Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Southeast To South And Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet, Building To 2 To 3 Feet. Isolated Showers. |
| Monday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Decreasing To Near 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet, Subsiding To 1 To 2 Feet. Isolated Showers. |
| Monday Night...Variable Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming South And Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet, Building To 2 To 3 Feet. Isolated Showers. |
| Synopsis for Keys coastal waters from Ocean Reef to Dry Tortugas: GMZ005 426 PM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021 High pressure centered to the east of Central Florida will slide to the east of the Bahamas tonight and Thursday. A weak ridge axis will stretch west across the Bahamas and the Florida Keys Thursday night through Sunday. The heating and cooling of the larger nearby landmasses will result in large peaks and lulls in the southerly breezes. Breezes will tend to peak after midnight through mid-morning, while breezes will tend to lull in the afternoon and evening. A frontal system will stall to the north of the Keys Sunday night and Monday. Gulf Stream The Approximate Shoreward Edge of the Gulf Stream as of April 13... - 52 NM South of Dry Tortugas Light...on Loggerhead Key. - 25 NM South of Cosgrove Shoal Light...off the Marquesas Keys. - 9 NM South of Sand Key Light...off Key West. - 4 NM South of Looe Key...off Big Pine Key. - 5 NM South of Sombrero Key Light...off Marathon. - 4 NM Southeast of Alligator Reef Light...off Islamorada. - 2 NM Southeast of Molasses Reef Light...off Key Largo. - 3 NM East of Carysfort Reef Light...off Ocean Reef. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 318pm EDT Wednesday April 14 2021 Water vapor imagery highligheights a storm system spreading east through the Mississippi River Valley. Mean-layer ridging centered over Central America is lending to a broad expanse of subsidence over the Yucatan, Cuba, the Bahamas, and South Florida. Visibile satellite imagery depicts nearly cloud-free conditions over the same areas. At the surface, high pressure centered just to the east of Florida supports moderate to fresh, east to southeast breezes across the Florida Keys. Temperatures along the Keys are in the mid 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s. Skies are sunny and the KAMX radar is echo free. .FORECAST... The high pressure system to the east of Florida will slide to the east-southeast tonight and Thursday. Meanwhile, the frontal system over the northern Gulf Coast will sag slowly southward through the Gulf of Mexico. Although the large scale subsidence will not be extreme, the low-level ridging will remain overtop the Florida Keys for the next several days. Also, with the surface ridge axis stretching west across the Florida Keys, southerly breezes will peak and lull wildly as Cuba and Florida cycle through the diurnal. Southerly winds will peak at 12 to 14 knots after midnight, only to collapse to 5 knots or less in the late afternoon. This pattern will persist through at least Sunday, with warm and humid conditions (Marathon possibly hitting 90 degrees) accompanying the southerly breezes. By Sunday afternoon or Sunday night, a deeper tropical tap will destabilize the profile. And with a frontal boundary stalled to our north, weak low-level convergence will support slight rain chances Sunday afternoon through Wednesday. Portions of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico may have episodes of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, while portions of the Straits will remain rain-free in the Cuban shadow. On-the- whole, no significant changes to the forecast reasoning through the next week. Marine Small Craft Should Exercise Caution due to east to southeast winds 16 to 19 knots, which will decrease overnight. From synopsis, high pressure centered to the east of Central Florida will slide to the east of the Bahamas tonight and Thursday. A weak ridge axis will stretch west across the Bahamas and the Florida Keys Thursday night through Sunday. The heating and cooling of the larger nearby landmasses will result in large peaks and lulls in the southerly breezes. Breezes will tend to peak after midnight through mid- morning, while breezes will tend to lull in the afternoon and evening. A frontal system will stall to the north of the Keys Sunday night and Monday. NOAA Key West FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...None. GM...None. |
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