Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...Northeast Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 6 To 7 Feet, Occasionally To 9 Feet, Building To 7 To 9 Feet, Occasionally To 11 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 6 Feet At 6 Seconds, Becoming Northeast 8 Feet At 7 Seconds. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms. |
| Tonight...Northeast Winds Near 25 Knots. Seas 8 To 10 Feet, Occasionally To 13 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast To East 9 Feet At 7 Seconds And Northwest To North 3 Feet At 8 Seconds. Scattered Showers. |
| Tuesday...Northeast To East Winds Near 25 Knots. Seas 7 To 10 Feet, Occasionally To 13 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast To East 8 Feet At 8 Seconds And Northwest 2 Feet At 7 Seconds. Isolated Showers. |
| Tuesday Night...Northeast To East Winds 20 To 25 Knots, Decreasing To 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 7 To 10 Feet, Occasionally To 13 Feet, Subsiding To 5 To 8 Feet, Occasionally To 10 Feet. Isolated Showers. |
| Wednesday...East Winds Decreasing To Near 15 Knots. Seas Subsiding To 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet. Isolated Showers. |
| Wednesday Night...East Winds Near 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. Isolated Showers. |
| Thursday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Decreasing To Near 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. Isolated Showers. |
| Thursday Night...East Winds Decreasing To 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Subsiding To 2 To 3 Feet. Isolated Showers. |
| Friday And Friday Night...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Isolated Showers. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1036am EST Monday Dec 15 2025 Issued at 1036am EST Monday Dec 15 2025 The most recent cold front has certainly made its presence known this morning. The front passed through during the early morning hours and the winds quickly followed. Along the reef we are seeing 20 to 25 knots with near 20 knots across the Florida Bay and Gulfside waters. KBYX radar showed a flurry of activity earlier this morning as the front initially pushed through but coverage is dwindling. That being said, where the convergence is strongest, i.e, the eastern half of the Straits, showers continue to wax and wane. Given the orientation of the steering from (from the northeast), a threat for showers will continue for the island chain. Highest chances will be in the Upper Keys given its proximity to the convergence zone. As moisture spills further downstream the Lower and Middle Keys may see some isolated showers. Minor changes were made to the going forecast. Mainly to adjust PoPs and split out the Upper Keys from the rest of the island chain. Feel that models are being overly aggressive on how much moisture will pivot in today (as is the case behind cold fronts). Given than we are now post-frontal, the main source for lift will have to come about from where mass and momentum converge the strongest. With that said, kept low end chance Probability of Precipitation (30 percent) for the Upper keys, while lowering Probability of Precipitation to 20 percent for the rest of the Keys. Otherwise, no other changes. Expect windy conditions to prevail with a minor lull this afternoon but returning back to current strength by this evening. Marine Issued at 1036am EST Monday Dec 15 2025 No changes made to the going forecast. Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue across all of the Florida Keys coastal waters. We could see a brief and minor lull in breezes across the waters north of the island chain as the daytime heats up this afternoon. However, as mentioned, it will be brief as breezes will return to fresh to strong this evening and continue overnight. Shower and thunderstorm chances will be greatest across the Straits of Florida and even then they may tend to favor the eastern half of the waters through the afternoon. Issued at 504am EST Monday Dec 15 2025 Weather conditions have been mostly quiet during this overnight shift, but our KBYX radar has been detecting pockets of showers to the east and southeast of the Upper Keys. The showers closest to the Keys have been filtering in from the area just offshore of Miami, but the newest development over the Florida Straits seems to be forming along some kind of boundary. Temperatures are in the lower 70s, but frequent wind gusts near 20 mph have made it feel a little chillier than the past couple of nights. GOES-19 IR imagery shows patchy low level clouds over some of our marine zones, but the island chain is still experiencing clear skies. This is good news for our warm weather lovers, because the morning sunshine may take some of the edge off of the chill. However, cloud cover may fill in as showers increase, so expect on and off sunshine throughout today. The most notable impact from this cold front on our sensible weather will be in our surface winds. Both NAEFS and ECMWF percentiles suggest that low level winds across our forecast area today will be close to a climatological maximum. This is a signal that simply tells us the winds in the current forecast are much higher than what an "average" forecast would hold for this time of year. While this doesn't offer an insight to just how high these winds will be, it does provide confident that we are looking at breezy to windy conditions today. As the parent trough pivots and lifts over the coming days, breezes will start to slacken over the course of the second half of the week. Mean layer ridging will encourage a new push of moisture, but guidance is struggling to determine just how substantial this moisture will be. GFS (Global Forecast System) and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ensemble members point to some chances for rainfall, but the NBM has single digit PoPs. We likely won't see this wide range of solutions come to an agreement until we clear this cold front, so we'll have to monitor how guidance trends over the next few days. NOAA Key West FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075. |
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