Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Tonight...East To Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Wave Detail: East To Southeast 4 Feet At 5 Seconds. |
| Thursday...Southeast To South Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Decreasing To 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: East To Southeast 3 Feet At 5 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Thursday Night...North To Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming East After Midnight. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Wave Detail: East 2 Feet At 5 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Friday...East To Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot, Building To 2 To 3 Feet In The Afternoon. A Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Friday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Saturday...Southeast Winds Near 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Saturday Night...East To Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Sunday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Sunday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Monday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming South To Southwest 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Monday Night...Southwest To West Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 136pm EDT Wednesday Mar 11 2026 .PREVIOUS Issued at 430am EDT Wednesday Mar 11 2026 CIMSS products continue to show a mean layer ridge in place across much of the area with a sharp mid to upper level ridge stretching northeastward across the Gulf. At the surface, an Atlantic high remains centered to the east of Bermuda. The western periphery of this ridge extends westward into Florida and the Gulf. Marine observation platforms surrounding the Island Chain are recording east to southeast breezes near 15 knots as a result. GOES 19 Total Precipitable Water (TPW) products shows estimated PWAT (Precipitable Water) values between 1 inch and 1.25 inches. This is between the mean and the 75th percentile for the date. Due to the mainly dry air across the Keys, KBYX radar has remained void of any shower activity overnight. GOES 19 Nighttime Microphysics imagery shows mainly stratocumulus traversing across the area leading to partly cloudy skies. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the mid to upper 70s and dew points are near 70 degrees with a few areas of lower 70s. .FORECAST... High pressure centered near Bermuda will remain the main driver for the Florida Keys sensible weather through Thursday morning. The western side of this ridge extends over Florida and into the Gulf. This will continue to promote gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes through tonight. The high will start to retreat into the Atlantic early Thursday leading to breezes shifting to the southeast to south and eventually south to southwest as a frontal system approaches from the northwest. Breezes will also slacken as a result of the pressure gradient weakening across the area. There may even be a period of variable breezes Thursday evening/night due to weak and nebulous flow across the area. Dry air remains entrenched across the Keys early this morning. Near nil rain chances are expected through tonight as a result. Temperatures will remain above normal through Thursday with daytime highs in the lower to mid 80s and overnight lows in the mid 70s. The pattern is about to change across much of Florida Thursday continuing through the weekend and into early next week. The robust upper level ridge that has been dominating the pattern is about to breakdown. This will lead to more upper level troughing across the area with multiple embedded shortwaves moving through the base of this trough. That being said, basically an unsettled pattern is expected to ensue across the area starting Thursday night continuing into early next week. At the surface, a frontal boundary drifting southeastward towards Florida will draw Atlantic and Caribbean moisture northward leading to increasing rain chances through the extended. Instability is also expected to increase leading to the potential for thunderstorms beginning Friday night continuing through the weekend and into early next week. Cloud cover will also increase compared to recent days as a result. Some days may be wetter than others, however, it is too early still to pinpoint the exact details. The main takeaway is expect rounds of showers and thunderstorms beginning Friday night. Since a more unsettled pattern is upon us, this may lead to some very beneficial rain for the area as well as Florida in general. Also, dew points will only subtly decrease by a degree or two making any change barely noticeable. Looking at the end of the extended, there may be signs of yet another front towards Saint Patrick's Day. However, this is too far out to hone in on any details at this time. Also, the later we get into spring the less likely it will be that these fronts will push through. Stay tuned! Marine Issued at 1115am EDT Wednesday Mar 11 2026 Small craft should exercise caution in the Straits of Florida. From synopsis, high pressure is centered to the east of Bermuda with the western periphery of this ridge extending west into Florida and the Gulf. The high will retreat farther out into the Atlantic through early Thursday shifting breezes to the southeast to south. A cold front will steadily push southeastward into South Florida through the remainder of the week and the weekend. Breezes will shift to the south to southwest and eventually become variable sometime late Thursday/Thursday night. Since the front isn't expected to reach the Keys, high pressure regains control and thus returns breezes back to the east to southeast. NOAA Key West FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...None. GM...None. |
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