South Mobile Bay Marine Forecast
|Today...East Winds 13 To 18 Knots Becoming Southeast 8 To 13 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Tonight...Southeast Winds 8 To 13 Knots Becoming East 3 To 8 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet.|
|Monday...East Winds 3 To 8 Knots Becoming South 5 To 10 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
|Monday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Northwest. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
|Tuesday...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southwest 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
|Tuesday Night...Southwest Winds 8 To 13 Knots Becoming West. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
|Wednesday...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
|Wednesday Night...Southwest Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
|Thursday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
|Thursday Night...South Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
Synopsis For Pascagoula MS To Okaloosa Walton County Line FL Out 60 NM Including Major Area Bays And Sounds - GMZ600|
451 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019
A moderate to occasionally strong east to southeast wind flow will gradually diminish later today and tonight as high pressure to the east continues to shift southwest. A southwest to westerly flow is expected late late Monday night through midweek as the ridge of high pressure settles further west over the lower Mississippi River Valley and north central Gulf.
Area Forecast Discussion|
...UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL
637am CDT Sunday September 22 2019
Near Term - Now Through Sunday night
A broad mid to upper ridge of high pressure centered near the central AL/GA border this morning will shift slightly west through Monday afternoon. Near the surface high pressure stretching from the eastern seaboard to the north central Gulf states and lower MS River Valley will weaken late tonight and early Monday becoming reinforced from the north late Monday into Tue. Latest model soundings continue to show a very stable/dry airmass across the north central gulf region and forecast area through tonight and on Monday with some residual moisture generally below 10k ft still near the immediate coast stretching well offshore, combined with some weak convergence depicted by the latest radar and satellite loops across the deep south. With this, similar to yesterday morning, pattern believe we will see another round of very light isolated showers this morning occurring mostly over lower sections of Mobile and Baldwin counties and offshore through midday with little to no accumulation expected. By this afternoon better mixing is noted mainly from daytime heating with most of the light showers beneath the cap evaporating before reaching the surface later in the day.
With better mixing along with a mix of clouds and sun early today daytime temps will climb to near or a few degrees above seasonal norms by this afternoon. Highs today will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s for most inland areas and the middle 80s along the immediate coast. For tonight with mostly clear skies and less mixing overnight lows will fall to near of slightly below seasonal norms for most inland areas and near seasonal levels near the immediate coast. Lows tonight will range from the middle 60s for most inland and the upper 60s to lower 70s along the immediate coast. 32/ee
Short Term - Monday Through Tuesday Night
A deep layer ridge of high pressure will extend along the north central Gulf Coast region Monday and Monday night. The ridge will shift southward across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico and adjacent FL peninsula Tuesday and Tuesday night as westerly mid level flow increases across the Mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valley regions and adjacent northern portions of MS and AL. A dry and subsident airmass will be in place across our forecast area underneath the ridge aloft through the day Monday, with precipitable water values ranging as low as 0.9 to 1.2 inches. Mostly clear and dry conditions can be expected. Temperatures will also continue to trend upward across the forecast area underneath the building ridge. High temperatures on Monday afternoon are forecast to range in the lower to mid 90s over inland areas, and in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees near the immediate coast. Mostly clear skies will generally continue into Monday night, though clouds could increase somewhat across our far northern zones by early Tuesday morning ahead of a weak frontal boundary that will be slowly moving into central portions of MS and AL. Lows Monday night will range in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees over inland areas, and in the lower to mid 70s near the coast.
The weak frontal boundary may edge southward and become stationary across interior portions of southeast MS and southwest/south central AL during the day Tuesday. Short range model solutions also show an increase in layer moisture along the vicinity of the boundary Tuesday afternoon, with precipitable water values rising to 1.5 to 1.75 inches per the GFS. The increased moisture along with low level convergence along the boundary may result in the development of isolated to scattered showers and a couple of thunderstorms over interior portions of our forecast area on Tuesday. We will carry low POPs generally north of a Beaumont, MS to Andalusia, AL line Tuesday, with the highest POPs around 30% north of U.S. Highway 84. Temperatures will otherwise continue to average several degrees above normal, with readings in the lower to mid 90s inland, and in the upper 80s to around 90 near the immediate coast and beaches.
2-3 ft swell with 6-7 second periods will continue to propagate toward area beaches through Monday. This longer period swell along with high tidal ranges will maintain a high risk of rip currents along areas beaches into Monday night. The swell should lessen into Tuesday, but the rip current risk will still be moderate on Tuesday. /21
Long Term - Wednesday Through Saturday
The upper level ridge axis will continue to extend from the central and eastern Gulf to the FL peninsula on Wednesday. A west to southwest flow pattern aloft will persist across our forecast area to the northwest of this feature. The residual diffuse surface boundary/trough axis will extend across interior portions of the area again on Wednesday, while a seabreeze also looks to develop near the coast. Modest moisture and low level convergence along these features could aid in the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms by Wednesday afternoon, but the chance of measurable rain remains quite low in the 15-20% range at best. The upper ridge axis will extend across the FL peninsula and southeast states on Thursday before gradually building back to the northwest across much of MS/AL/GA and northwest FL into Saturday. The resultant forecast will be continued hot temperatures and very meager rain chances late in the extended period. We have continued to trend highs toward the hottest guidance, and if the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) low level thermal pattern verifies, we wouldn't be surprised if a few locations in our interior approach the 100 degree mark Thursday through Saturday. /21
MARINE...A moderate to occasionally strong east to southeast wind flow will gradually diminish later today and tonight as high pressure to the east continues to shift southwest. A southwest to westerly flow is expected late late Monday night through midweek as the ridge of high pressure settles further west over the lower Mississippi River Valley and north central Gulf. 32/ee
NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ202-204-206.