North Mobile Bay Marine Forecast
| Tonight...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Early This Evening. |
| Monday...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Moderate Chop. |
| Monday Night...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Moderate Chop. |
| Tuesday...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Tuesday Night...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening. |
| Wednesday...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Showers And Thunderstorms Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Wednesday Night...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening. |
| Thursday...Northwest Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming Southwest In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Thursday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. |
| Friday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. |
| Friday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 637pm CDT Sunday Jun 21 2026 Issued at 637pm CDT Sunday Jun 21 2026 The forecast remains on track with convection currently moving through southern Alabama and the western Florida panhandle. Heavy rain rates are causing some localized flash flooding, but convection is subsiding and the threat should wane over the next couple of hours. SS/97 Issued at 119pm CDT Sunday Jun 21 2026 A remnant outflow boundary has steadily moved its way inland this morning as it serves as a focus for scattered storm development over the far interior portions of the area. In the wake of this feature, skies have scattered out and sunshine has allowed temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 80s. With dewpoints still solidly in the mid to upper 70s, SBCAPEs (Convective Available Potential Energy - high values indicate potential for severe weather) are increasing to around 3000-3500 J/kg. Therefore, expect additional scattered to numerous storms to develop this afternoon, especially over the inland areas with likely less coverage at the coast. Deep layer shear is weak, so no organized strong to severe storms are expected today. However, a brief strong storm with gusty winds is possible. The storms will continue to be efficient rain producers given precipitable water values of 2 to 2.15 inches. Therefore, locally heavy rainfall is possible, but no widespread additional flooding issues are expected from today's storm activity. Storm coverage will trend a little lower on Monday as drier air moves into the area in the wake of a weak departing shortwave. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) are forecast to drop to around 1.6-1.7 inches. Even with this, a few afternoon storms will be possible with the heat of the day. In addition, guidance continues to indicate that a shortwave will move into the lower MS Valley and help spark a complex of storms over the Midsouth region. Given the deep layer northwest flow, this complex is forecast to move southeast and may attempt to approach the area by late afternoon/early evening. Given the aforementioned drier air and weak deep layer shear, this complex is likely to weaken as it moves closer to our inland areas. However, it is possible that it could help enhance rain chances slightly north of Hwy 84. It should be noted that models typically struggle with these summertime northwest flow complexes and we will have to keep a close eye on its evolution as we go through the day tomorrow. Storm Prediction Center clips the far northern counties in a Marginal Risk tomorrow to account for a strong wind gust potential if the complex stays a little stronger than currently expected. The pattern is likely to turn more active again in the Tuesday to Thursday time frame. A strong mid to upper level ridge will extend across the Gulf up into TX, which will put us firmly in deep layer northwest flow aloft. This sets the stage for a series of storm complexes to develop and move across the region each day. The upper ridge over the Gulf will expand further north across the southeast states by the end of the week into next weekend which will result in rain chances finally decreasing in earnest. Temperatures will be hot and muggy throughout the forecast period. Heat indices will climb into 100-105 degree range with humid lows in the 70s. Beach Forecast: Based on local beach reports this morning, we upgraded to a HIGH risk of rip currents through tonight. A moderate risk is expected through Tuesday. 34/JFB Marine Issued at 119pm CDT Sunday Jun 21 2026 High pressure will extend from the southwest Atlantic into the central Gulf through the most of the week. A light to moderate southwest to westerly flow will prevail. Seas 2 to 3 feet through early this week will subside to 1 to 2 feet by the end of the week. 34/JFB NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories AL...High Rip Current Risk until 4am CDT Monday for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4am CDT Monday for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...None. |
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