North Mobile Bay Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Southwest Winds Diminishing To Around 5 Knots Late This Evening, Then Becoming North Late Tonight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Wednesday...Northeast Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming Southeast In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Wednesday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Thursday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Chance Of Showers. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Thursday Night...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Friday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Friday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming North After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Saturday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Southeast In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Saturday Night...West Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming North After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Sunday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Southeast In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Sunday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Northeast After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 656pm CDT Tuesday May 30 2023 /issued 425pm CDT Tuesday May 30 2023/ ..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TER Marine Near Term (Now through Wednesday) Issued at 425pm CDT Tuesday May 30 2023 Current conditions across the local area are characterized by temperatures in the lower to mid 80s along with mainly mid-level cumulus clouds streaming over the area. Additionally, a few showers/storms are ongoing over southeastern Louisiana. Although, outside of a stray shower or two, most of our area should remain dry. The upper level Rex Block feature (upper level high pressure directly north of an upper level low pressure) is expected to weaken over the northeast U.S. into midweek. Meanwhile, an upper low/trough will meander over the north-central and northeastern Gulf of Mexico over the next few days. At the surface, high pressure over the northeastern Gulf will give way to an inverted trough/low pressure over the east-central Gulf on Wednesday. With the aforementioned system over the Gulf, moisture will increase from midweek into late week. This is expected to result in increased chances of isolated to scattered showers and storms, especially along and south of I-65 by Wednesday afternoon. Instability looks to be modest and model shear values are meager; therefore, while a stronger storm is possible, severe weather is not anticipated at this time. Low temperatures tonight are forecast to merely drop into the lower to mid 60s over inland communities and into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees near the coast. High temperatures on Wednesday are then expected to top out in the mid to upper 80s. A low risk of rip currents is forecast at area beaches through Wednesday. However, this does NOT mean there is no risk at all. An additional note regarding rip currents - the rip risk is expected to increase to be at least moderate by Thursday as the previously-mentioned system makes its way over the Gulf of Mexico. Always remain vigilant and stay safe. Please heed the advice of beach officials and beach flags! /26 SHORT TERM... (Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 425pm CDT Tuesday May 30 2023 A trough in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere will be located over the north central Gulf of Mexico early Wednesday evening, while an inverted surface trough reflection also extends across the central Gulf. Our forecast area will be located along the northern periphery of these features and also to the southwest of a surface ridge of high pressure extending across the Mid- Atlantic states/Appalachians. The low pressure system may meander across the north central Gulf on Thursday before gradually shifting to the east toward the FL peninsula Friday into Saturday. Short range model solutions are in general agreement with bringing a slug of enhanced moisture with associated precipitable water values between 1.75" and 2" into much of our forecast area along the northern periphery of the trough/low Wednesday night into Thursday, with values highest near the coast. We still anticipate POPs to increase across southern and eastern portions of the CWA (County Warning Area) Wednesday evening/night and across much of the forecast area on Thursday. For now we have the highest rain chances capped at 40-50% on Thursday (higher POPs focused offshore), but will monitor model trends closely over the next day or so to see if these need to be trended higher. Rain chances may taper off Thursday night into Friday depending on the eastward progression of the trough axis. We will keep slight chance POPs in the forecast during this time frame for now. Increasing easterly to southeasterly flow and associated swell may increase the rip current risk to MODERATE and possibly briefly into the HIGH range by Thursday. Lows each night will continue to range in the mid to upper 60s inland and lower 70s along the beaches. Highs Thursday may only range in the lower to mid 80s with increased cloud cover/rain chances, but should rebound into the mid to upper 80s by Friday. /21 Long Term (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 425pm CDT Tuesday May 30 2023 Medium range model guidance generally supports a deepening trough from the New England/Mid-Atlantic states and adjacent western Atlantic states with ridging aloft across the central and northern CONUS. A weak flow pattern is expected over our forecast area this weekend. Perhaps enough moisture for isolated to scattered convection both days, especially in the vicinity of a developing seabreeze. The deep upper trough may persist across the northeastern U.S. into early next week, with some potential for the base of the trough axis to deepen into the southern and southeastern U.S. but the overall signal in the guidance supports only maintaining the typical isolated to scattered convective coverage for Monday and Tuesday with this forecast. Highs should trend upward into the upper 80s to lower 90s early next week. /21 Marine Issued at 425pm CDT Tuesday May 30 2023 A light to occasionally moderate diurnal flow pattern will continue through Wednesday, with onshore flow expected during the day and offshore flow at night. Along with an increase in shower and storm chances through late week, moderate easterly flow is expected to take hold for Thursday and Friday. Operators of small craft may need to exercise caution during this time, especially over the open Gulf waters. A light to occasionally moderate diurnal pattern will then return for Friday night and into the weekend. /26 NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. |
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