North Mobile Bay Marine Forecast
|Tonight...South Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
|Sunday...South Winds 8 To 13 Knots Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots. Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
|Sunday Night...South Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Monday...Southwest Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely.|
|Monday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southwest 3 To 8 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Tuesday...Southwest Winds 3 To 8 Knots Becoming South. Waves Less Than 1 Foot. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Showers And Thunderstorms Likely In The Afternoon.|
|Tuesday Night...East Winds 3 To 8 Knots. Waves Less Than 1 Foot. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely.|
|Wednesday...East Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely.|
|Wednesday Night...Northeast Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday...Northeast Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday Night...Northeast Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
| Synopsis For Pascagoula MS To Okaloosa Walton County Line FL Out 60 NM Including Major Area Bays And Sounds - GMZ600|
330 PM CDT Sat May 8 2021
A light to occasional moderate southerly flow will remain through Tuesday ahead of a weak cold front approaching from the north. Light easterly to variable winds are expected midweek as the cold front stalls near the coast, followed by light northeasterly winds Thursday as the front moves further offshore. Shower and thunderstorm activity will increase Monday into Thursday.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mobile AL
406pm CDT Sat May 8 2021
.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Sunday/...An upper level ridge over the Great Plains will shift east of the Mississippi River tonight, but become flattened as a shortwave tracks quickly eastward across the Lower Midwest. A low pressure system moves across the Ohio Valley region Sunday, while a cold front shifts southeast over the ArkLaTex region. Across our region, the dry period will continue through the near term. However, southerly low level winds will bring increasing surface dew points through Sunday and higher humidity through Sunday.
Temperatures tonight will be warmer than prior nigheights as lows drop into the mid 50s and lower 60s. Low cloud coverage increases some on Sunday from west to east, but temperatures are still able to rise to between 82 to 88 degrees. A LOW risk of rip currents will continue through tonight, with a MODERATE risk for rip currents presenting itself on Sunday. /22
Short Term - Sunday Night Through Tuesday Night
A more unsettled weather pattern and prolonged rainfall event will return to the forecast area starting late Sunday night and continuing into the extended term. A shortwave trough embedded within the zonal flow aloft over the ArkLaTex region Sunday afternoon will translate eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley region by early Sunday evening, then across MS and into AL late Sunday night. A surface cold front will slowly move southward into northern portions of LA/MS/AL late Sunday night into Monday. A southerly flow pattern will continue across our forecast area through Monday ahead of these features. Low level moisture will continue to increase across our region Sunday night into Monday, with surface dewpoints rising well into the 60s, and perhaps even around 70 degrees over southern portions of the area.
Deep layer moisture and ascent will spread eastward into our area late Sunday night into Monday ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and frontal zone. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage especially northwest of the I-65 corridor by late Sunday night, then across the remainder of our forecast area through the day Monday. Numerous to widespread coverage of showers and storms is expected on Monday as precipitable water values rise to 1.8 to 2 inches across our region. MLCAPE values increase to 1200-1800 J/KG across locations west of the Alabama River and along the coast by mid Monday afternoon. The increased instability along with 0-6 km bulk shear values of 35-45 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates up to around 6.5 C/KM may be sufficient for a few strong to marginal severe storms capable of producing localized strong to damaging wind gusts and possibly hail. Our area has been outlined in a Day 3 Marginal severe risk from Storm Prediction Center for Monday. Convection may tend to decrease in coverage by Monday evening, but another shortwave trough embedded within the westerly flow pattern aloft will approach southeast MS and southwest AL late Monday night as the weak cold front sags into the area, allowing for additional scattered convection overnight Monday night through Tuesday. We should have similar environmental conditions on Tuesday, so would not be surprised if we get outlined in at least a Marginal severe risk from Storm Prediction Center for Tuesday.
Highs Monday and Tuesday will generally be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows Sunday and Monday nigheights are forecast to range in the mid to upper 60s inland and around 70 near the immediate coast. Lows Tuesday night trend 3 to 5 degrees cooler behind the weak cold front that stalls near the coast. /21 /22
.EXTENDED TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...A stalled front will continue near the coast through mid week in an upper level zonal flow pattern. The combination of the stalled front, plenty of deep layer moisture and a disturbed upper level zonal flow will lead to numerous to definite showers and thunderstorms again Wednesday. Another trough moves across the central plains late Wednesday and into the upper midwest by Thursday. This will maintain scattered to potentially numerous showers and storms for Thursday. A drier airmass follows Thursday night through Saturday as the front finally gets shoved south of the coast with this last upper trough. High temperatures a bit cooler than seasonal norms are expected, with overnight lows a bit above. /13 /22
A moderate southerly flow will develop over the Gulf late tonight into Sunday, so small craft should exercise caution. Otherwise, a light to occasional moderate southerly flow will remain through Tuesday ahead of a weak cold front approaching from the north. Light easterly to variable winds are expected midweek as the cold front stalls near the coast, followed by light northeasterly winds Thursday as the front moves further offshore. Shower and thunderstorm activity will increase Monday into Thursday. /22
NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.