North Mobile Bay Marine Forecast
|Today...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
|Tonight...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
|Thursday...Northeast Winds 8 To 13 Knots Becoming North 10 To 15 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Slight Chance Of Rain In The Morning, Then Chance Of Rain In The Afternoon.|
|Thursday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots Increasing To 13 To 18 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Rain Likely In The Evening, Then Slight Chance Of Rain After Midnight.|
|Friday...North Winds 13 To 18 Knots Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
|Friday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
|Saturday...North Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
|Saturday Night...Northeast Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
|Sunday...Northeast Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
|Sunday Night...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves Less Than 1 Foot.|
Synopsis For Pascagoula MS To Okaloosa Walton County Line FL Out 60 NM Including Major Area Bays And Sounds - GMZ600|
717 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2019
Dense steam fog this morning over the offshore waters due to sub-freezing temperatures moving south over the warm gulf waters will lift by noon. Moderate northerly winds early this morning will shift to the northeast and diminish throughout the day as a high pressure ridge over the southeast states weakens and shifts eastward. Seas will gradually subside as well. A moderate to strong northerly flow will redevelop Thursday through Friday between a surface ridge of high pressure over the southern plains and a developing low pressure area just east of the Georgia and South Carolina coastline.
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mobile AL
Issued by National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
920am CST Wednesday Nov 13 2019
New model guidance is suggesting slightly warmer temps (2-3 degress) over the water this afternoon. The forecast has been adjusted to account for this. Precip is not expected until tomorrow afternoon.
Updated for latest marine discussion below.
MARINE...Reports and observations after sunrise from the Alabama and western Florida Panhandle beaches are reporting dense steam fog just off the coast over the Gulf of Mexico as result of sub- freezing temperatures moving south over the warm gulf waters. Camera images from the offshore bouy 12 miles south of Orange Beach Alabama are also showing dense steam fog. Visibilities then improve out to 60 nm as as camera images from the bouy 63 miles south of Dauphin Beach Alabama are showing a low status cloud deck. Have updated the Coastal Waters Forecast (CWF) and issued a Marine Weather Message (MWW) product for the dense fog conditions for all four of our gulf zones through noon CST. /22
See updated information for marine areas and aviation discussion below.
MARINE...Latest bouy data over the north central Gulf of Mexico are reporting that the sustained winds have diminished to 18 knots with occasional higher gusts to 23 knots 12 miles south of Orange Beach AL, and to 16 knots with occasional gusts to 23 knots 63 miles south of Dauphin Beach AL. Seas have also subsided to 3 to 6 feet, respectively. Therefore, have cancelled the Small Craft Advisory 3 hours before its original expiration time of 9 am. Small craft should still exercise caution throughout the morning hours. /22
AVIATION... 12Z issuance...VFR conditions will occur through 14.12z. North- northeast winds 8 to 12 knots with occasional higher gusts to 18 knots early this morning will diminish and become east around 6 knots by 13.18z. A cirrus canopy moving in from the west will thicken throughout the day, becoming broken by early afternoon. Winds around 5 knots overnight will shift back to the northeast, while an overcast mid level cloud deck moves in from the west. /22
Near Term - Now Through Wednesday night
A 1032mb surface high pressure area centered over the eastern portion of the Ohio River Valley, that also encompasses much of the southeast conus, will reach the eastern seaboard by late this afternoon. A surface ridge however will remain from New England to the southeast states through the overnight hours, while a weak inverted surface trough developing over the central Gulf of Mexico this evening moves eastward over the eastern gulf by daybreak Thursday. A cutoff upper low pressure area over northwest Mexico will gradually fill as it advances eastward in the southern jet stream, reaching the Red River Valley by late tonight. A 100 knot northern jet streak over southwest Canada and the northern Rockies will dive southeast and weaken slightly, carving out an upper level shortwave over the north central conus that will shift eastward, and extend form the Great Lakes to the central plains by late tonight. Strong low to mid layer subsidence ahead of these two systems will keep dry conditions across the area through the near term. However, high level clouds associated with upper closed low pressure area will quickly move in the west, and thicken substantially later today and this evening, resulting in cloudy skies area-wide by midnight.
Plenty of sunshine early in the day will allow this mornings record low temperatures to warm into the low to mid 50s today, but will still be 16 to 19 degrees below normal. Low temperatures tonight will fall into the mid to upper 30s inland areas, lower 40s along the coastal sections, with mid 40s at the beaches. /22
Short Term - Thursday Through Friday Night
A southern stream upper trough over northern Mexico will slowly drift east-northeast over the western Gulf. At the same time, a deep trough over the central plains will dig into the Mid-Mississippi valley and begin to phase with the upper trough over the Gulf. Ahead of these two features, isentropic upglide over the remnant cold airmass leftover from the previous system will allow for light to moderate rain to develop across the area Thursday afternoon into Friday night. However, rain will likely be limited Thursday night into Friday by two factors.
Factor one is the relatively dry air already in place over the area. Given the short return period between systems, deep moisture will struggle to return to the area. This will lead to rain struggling to reach the ground especially during the day Thursday. The second caveat will be the potential to be dry slotted as the upper lows phase over our area. Current water vapor imagery shows the southern stream system already has some drier air wrapped up in it and models are hinting at a solid mid-level dry punch as the northern stream shortwave amplifies. If the dry slot moves over our area, this will lead to rain ending sooner. This will be significantly dependent on the track of the upper system. Given this uncertainty and still some model divergence, I kept PoPs similar to previous forecasts. If it appears that the dry slot doesn't develop or a little more moisture is able to make its way over the area, Probability of Precipitation may need to be increased as coverage would likely increase.
By Friday night, the upper low will be directly overhead leading to drier air moving in and cooler northerly flow returning. Temperatures will be a slightly warmer Friday; however, cloud cover will likely keep the area in the mid 50s inland to upper 50s at the coast. BB/03
Long Term - Saturday Through Tuesday
Saturday and Sunday will be rather nice compared to the few days prior. The deepening upper low will move east off the Mid-Atlantic coast leading to drier air over the area. A shortwave trough will dig into the central Great Plains leading to weak ridging over the area. Temperatures will remain below normal; however, they will warm into the low to mid 60s for highs and 40s for lows. With sunny skies, this will likely feel a lot better than the 20s and low 50s we saw earlier in the week.
By late Sunday night into Monday, the upper trough over the central Plains will move over the area. It will likely bring the chance of rain; however, the return period will be short between systems leading to drier air in place of the area. Most of the rain chances will likely remain along and south of the coast where moisture is maximized. Temperatures will likely remain moderated in the mid 60s Monday due to clouds. By Tuesday, skies should clear and temperatures will continue to slowly creep into the upper 60s. BB/03
MARINE...Moderate to strong northerly winds early this morning will shift to the northeast and diminish throughout the day as a high pressure ridge over the southeast states weakens and shifts eastward. Seas will gradually subside as well. A moderate to strong northerly flow will redevelop Thursday through Friday between a surface ridge of high pressure over the southern plains and a developing low pressure area just east of the Georgia and South Carolina coastline. /22
NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.