North Mobile Bay Marine Forecast
|Today...South Winds 3 To 8 Knots Increasing To 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Tonight...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming North 18 To 23 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet. Showers Likely In The Evening. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Tuesday...North Winds 18 To 23 Knots Diminishing To 13 To 18 Knots. Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning.|
|Tuesday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 20 Knots Diminishing To 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
|Wednesday...North Winds 8 To 13 Knots Becoming Northwest. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
|Wednesday Night...Northwest Winds 8 To 13 Knots Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
|Thursday...Northwest Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
|Thursday Night...Northwest Winds 13 To 18 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
|Friday...North Winds 13 To 18 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
|Friday Night...North Winds 13 To 18 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
| Synopsis For Pascagoula MS To Okaloosa Walton County Line FL Out 60 NM Including Major Area Bays And Sounds - GMZ600|
947 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020
Light to moderate onshore flow will persist into Monday ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds shift to more northerly and increase Monday night as the front passes. Moderate northerly winds continue into Wednesday before decreasing and shifting to northwesterly by Thursday. Seas build to 3-5 feet in the wake of the cold front Monday night into Tuesday.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mobile AL
408am CDT Monday September 28 2020
.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Tuesday/...A longwave trough will deepen and amplify over the Mississippi Valley and ARKLATEX (Arkansas/Louisiana/Texas) regions through this evening. This trough will continue to plunge southward late tonight though Tuesday as an embedded upper cutoff low pressure center forms over northern Missouri around midnight tonight and drops south-southeastward over central Mississippi by late Tuesday afternoon, allowing the base of the trough to reach the southern Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, high pressure is shifting eastward and a cold front is moving over the lower midwest ARKLATEX regions. This front is expected to move quickly toward the southeast, pushing through the lower Mississippi River Valley today, reach the I-65 corridor early this evening, and south of the coast by midnight. Surface high pressure will build into the region in the wake of the front through the remainder of the near term.
Ahead of the front, a line of showers and thunderstorms approaching from the northwest will move through the forecast from 3pm through midnight in an environment characterized by moderate instability (~1500 J/kg MLCAPE) but little deep-layer shear (around 20 knots). While this environment may not support much of a severe thunderstorm threat, vertical wind profiles improve within the frontal zone, which in combination with the available instability could result in a few strong storms right along the front itself as it pushes through. These would be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and perhaps some small hail. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted much of the area in a Marginal Risk to reflect this potential. Once the front passes, any strong thunderstorm threat quickly diminishes as gusty northwest winds usher in a much drier and cooler airmass.
Highs today will be warm, reaching the mid to upper 80s areawide. Tonight is a transition period as temperatures range from 55 to 60 degrees northwest of I-65, and from 60 to 65 degrees to the southeast. Tuesday will feel more Fall-like as highs remain in the upper 60s to low 70s and dewpoints fall into the 50s. Expect some really pleasant days ahead in the short and extended term! /49 /22
.Short Term - Tuesday Night Through Wednesday Night
Fall at last, fall at last! We have finally made it to that 1 week every year that we call "fall" along the Gulf coast. You know that week, the one where football feels right, the air is crisp but not cold. Well we can thank a rather anomalously deep upper trough over the eastern US that will continue to slowly progress eastward throughout the period. To our west, a strengthening upper ridge will help turn winds aloft out of the northwest. At the surface, a cold front will continue to surge southward into the Florida Peninsula which will clear the Gulf and set the stage for several days of drier weather. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) will be approaching 1 inch or less which is very dry for the area. A second reinforcing surge of dry air will move in Wednesday as a stout upper jet moves down the backside of the trough and rounds the base digging the trough even deeper. Really its just going to be very dry for the area. Dewpoints will crash into potentially the 40s! This will keep low temperatures in the low to mid 50s and highs in the low to mid 70s Wednesday. This should last into the extended period given how deep this trough is and how far south the cold front made it. Rip currents will remain LOW through the period with a steady offshore wind. BB/03
.EXTENDED TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...Dry conditions continue over the area through the period. A longwave trough pattern over the eastern half of the CONUS maintains a deep layer dry and cool northwesterly flow over the forecast area for much of the period, with a reinforcing cold front moving through the forecast area late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Model soundings show that moisture will be too limited to support mention of probability of precipitation through the period. A modest warm-up will occur on Thursday ahead of the front allowing for highs near 80, then each following day will see highs mainly in the mid 70s. Lows Thursday night range from the lower 50s well inland to near 60 at the coast then trend cooler for Friday night with lows in the upper 40s well inland ranging to the mid 50s at the coast. Lows Saturday night will be a bit warmer and range from around 50 well inland to the upper 50s at the coast. /29.
Light southwest winds today will increase and become northerly tonight as a cold front progresses over the local area. The moderate to strong northerly winds will persist through Tuesday night, then decrease through midweek before shifting to the west on Thursday. Seas are also expected to build to around 3-5 feet in the wake of the cold front. A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for much of the area to account for the increase in winds and seas. /22
NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10pm this evening to 10pm CDT Tuesday for GMZ650-655-670-675.
Small Craft Advisory from 10pm this evening to 4pm CDT Tuesday for GMZ631-632.