North Mobile Bay Marine Forecast
|Today...Northwest Winds 3 To 8 Knots Becoming Southwest 5 To 10 Knots. Waves Less Than 1 Foot. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Showers And Thunderstorms Likely In The Afternoon. Winds And Waves Higher Near Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Tonight...West Winds 3 To 8 Knots Becoming Light. Waves Less Than 1 Foot. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely In The Evening, Then Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Saturday...Northwest Winds 3 To 8 Knots Becoming South. Waves Less Than 1 Foot. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely In The Morning, Then Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Saturday Night...East Winds 3 To 8 Knots Increasing To 13 To 18 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Showers And Thunderstorms Likely After Midnight.|
|Sunday...East Winds 8 To 13 Knots Becoming South 10 To 15 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely In The Morning, Then Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Sunday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Southwest. Waves Around 1 Foot. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Monday...West Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely.|
|Monday Night...Southwest Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Tuesday...Southwest Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely.|
|Tuesday Night...Southwest Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
Synopsis For Pascagoula MS To Okaloosa Walton County Line FL Out 60 NM Including Major Area Bays And Sounds - GMZ600|
417 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020
A light to occasionally moderate west to southwest flow will prevail into early next week. Scattered to occasionally numerous showers and storms are possible through the period.
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mobile AL
423am CDT Fri July 3 2020
.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Saturday/...A rather complex weather pattern will remain across the region through the near term, but the good news is that most of the highly reliable models are in good agreement with the overall main synoptic patterns. Just on a side note, there is a 300mb upper closed low pressure area over the south central Gulf of Mexico that will migrate northward over the north central gulf and evolve into an open wave by late Saturday afternoon, but the most of the weather through the near term will be driven by features at and below 500mb. The 500mb trough extending from the South Carolina to the north central gulf will persist through tonight, followed eventually by a closed low pressure area centered over the southern sections of our forecast area on Saturday. As we descend lower in the atmosphere, the 850mb and 925mb trough axes are shifted slightly further toward the south, and the models do hint that closed lows could develop at these levels as well, but only momentarily late tonight through Saturday morning. Most certainly however is the abundant deep layer moisture that will remain in place over the forecast area, with precipitable water values ranging from 1.9 to 2.2 inches, with the highest concentrations over the southern zones.
The biggest differences between the models are in the subtle features in the boundary layer that will eventually determine which areas have the best chance of receiving precipitation. There is also an instability factor involved, much of it driven by breaks in the clouds aided by an intense summer sun at its peak, and this is where the models have the greatest differences that will determine which locations have the potential of being impacted with the heaviest rainfall and strong outflow winds. The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and GFS MLCAPE values this afternoon range from 1200 to 1800 J/kg, with the highest values across the western portions, while the NAM12 MLCAPE values range from 2000 to 2800 J/kg, and are equally distributed across the area. MLCAPE values are slightly higher on Saturday with all three models. The ECMWF and GFS MLCAPE values range from 1200 to 2000 J/kg, with the highest values across the north, while the NAM12 MLCAPE values range from 2000 to 3500 J/kg, with the highest values across the central and west. 0-6 km bulk shear values remain very low through the period and look to be 20 knots or less.
With this pattern expect scattered, or possibly numerous in some areas, showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon, driven largely by decreasing stability and colliding outflow boundaries, and then diminish during the evening and overnight hours. Saturday looks to see the same evolution with categorical showers and storms developing through the day. Precipitation loading looks to be the main initiating mechanism for potential stronger storms through the period, although interior areas both days will also have support from some drier air above 700 mb to accelerate downdrafts. Considering the environment, there is the potential for some strong storms each day with the possibility for marginal severe storm development. Highs this afternoon and again on Saturday afternoon will be mostly in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Lows tonight will range from 72 to 75 degrees inland to the mid to upper 70s at the immediate coast. Heat index values both today and Saturday will range from 95 to 100. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected through Saturday (and likely continuing into the early part of next week). /22/12
.SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Sunday night/...The upper low that has formed over the Lower Mississippi River Valley will continue to bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to the forecast area. With a soupy airmass (guidance is advertising precipitable h20 values rising to around 2.2"), the possibility of training, efficient rain producing thunderstorms can cause localized ponding to minor flooding, especially on the eastern side of the system, which for the current forecast, is east of the Tombigbee River due to a more organized deep moist southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico. With summer plant growth in full bloom, poor drainage areas are expected to be the most easily affected. The risk of damaging downbursts remains an issue, though with model soundings indicating significantly less DCape, and general lack of dry layers in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, the risk is less than previous days. With the increased cloudiness from the convection combined with rain cooling, a decreased diurnal temperature range is expected, with low temperatures generally in the low to mid 70s well inland from the coast, mid to upper 70s along the coast. high temperatures Sunday are expected to range from the mid 80s west of the Tombigbee River, upper 80s to around 90 east. /16
.EXTENDED TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...Not much has really changed from yesterdays extended with a rather soggy period that will likely last into the middle of next week. Weak mid to upper troughing over the eastern US will cut off over the Southeast. This will allow for the Gulf of Mexico moisture to reign supreme with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) climbing above 2 inches. Based off Slidell sounding climatology, this would be above the 90th percentile for precipitable water. So Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday will have a rather summertime like pattern with storms starting along the coast then inland during the afternoon except the coverage of storms will likely be much higher. Given the wet profile and very weak flow aloft, we will have some concerns of potential flash flooding throughout the week. the risk will likely increase with each day of rain as the ground becomes more saturated; however, the threat will be driven mostly by heavy rain rates over very localized areas. By Thursday and Friday of next week, the loitering low will begin to lift out of the area. Rain chances will diminish slightly; however, we will likely still have a wet northeasterly flow aloft as upper ridging builds over the central US and a second southern stream upper trough will quickly move into the Tennessee Valley. Severe threat will be minimal through Wednesday given the fairly deep moist layer and lack of drier air in the midlevel, but a strong wet microburst or two can never be ruled out during the summer. Might have to monitor the back end of the week as the northeasterly flow develops towards the end of the week. Summertime pattern recognition typically supports some of our better summer microbursts days occur with light northerly flow aloft as drier air is brought into the mid-levels. With still some moisture this could lead to a better microburst potential but that is along way off and will most certainly change between now and then.
Temperatures will be a little cooler this week as widespread storms and cloud cover will keep us from reaching our peak heating. Temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 80s except for what few locations are able to avoid the storms and clouds to take advantage of the full daytime heating. If this were to happen, some localized locations could sneak into the low 90s. By the end of the week, we could see temperatures begin to slowly heat up as the ridge builds to our west and the upper low moves out. Lows will remain high with lows in the upper 70s. BB/03
No impacts are forecast except winds and waves will be locally higher near showers and thunderstorms. /29
NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.