Marine Weather Net

North Mobile Bay Marine Forecast


TODAY

NE
WINDS
8 - 13
KNOTS

TONIGHT

N
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

FRIDAY

N
WINDS
13 - 18
KNOTS

FRIDAY NIGHT

N
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ630 Forecast Issued: 357 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

Today...Northeast Winds 8 To 13 Knots Becoming North 10 To 15 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.
Tonight...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots Increasing To 13 To 18 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Chance Of Showers In The Evening.
Friday...North Winds 13 To 18 Knots Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.
Friday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.
Saturday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots Diminishing To 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.
Saturday Night...North Winds 8 To 13 Knots Becoming Northeast 5 To 10 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.
Sunday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.
Sunday Night...Northwest Winds 3 To 8 Knots. Waves Less Than 1 Foot.
Monday...Northwest Winds 3 To 8 Knots. Waves Less Than 1 Foot.
Monday Night...Northwest Winds 3 To 8 Knots. Waves Less Than 1 Foot.
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Synopsis For Pascagoula MS To Okaloosa Walton County Line FL Out 60 NM Including Major Area Bays And Sounds - GMZ600
357 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

Northerly winds and seas will rebuild this afternoon through Friday night in response to a strengthening surface trough across the eastern gulf and Florida Peninsula and a surface ridge of high pressure over the southern plains. The northerly winds and seas will diminish over the weekend as the surface ridge shifts east over the north central gulf.
Area Forecast Discussion
...UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL
602am CST Thu Nov 14 2019

Near Term - Now Through Thursday night
A surface high pressure area over the central Great Plains will shift southeast today, with a ridge setting up from central Texas to the Ohio River by late tonight. A developing surface trough across the eastern gulf and Florida Peninsula will strengthen later today and tonight, with a possible with a possible developing low pressure area forming just east of the Georgia and South Carolina coastline by late tonight. An increasing pressure gradient between the two systems across the forecast area will bring increasing northerly winds and reinforcing cooler temperatures through the near term. An upper level shortwave extending from the Great Lakes to the central plains will dive south-southeast through this evening, and merge with the northern gulf open wave, likely resulting in a cutoff upper low developing over northern Mississippi by late tonight. Mid to high level clouds associated with upper closed low pressure area will keep cloudy skies over the forecast area through tonight, with rain chances gradually increasing across the forecast area today through early evening. The precipitation will than taper off from west to east through the remainder of the night. High temperatures today will struggle to reach the upper 40s to lower 50s, about 20 degrees below normal. Low temperatures tonight will fall into the mid 30s to lower 40s, with mid mid 40s at the beaches. /22

Short Term - Friday Through Saturday night
The deepening upper level low centered directly over the area will begin to move northeast off the southeast coast on Friday. Reinforcing northerly flow will bring another round of cooler and drier air to the area Friday through Saturday. Skies will clear by Friday evening and temperatures will drop into the low 30s inland to 40s at the coast. Saturday will be clear as mid-level ridging develops ahead of a deepening trough over the central US. Temperatures will begin to warm up into the upper 50s to low 60s along the coast. BB/03

Long Term - Sunday Through Wednesday
An overall quieter and "warmer" pattern will set up next week. The only real player will be the aforementioned trough centered over the Great Plains. This trough will dig southeast into the area Sunday night into Monday. However; some model disagreement exists on the timing and how much moisture will be present with this system. The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) (Euro) is a bit slower and more amplified with the trough vs. the GFS. The slower trough on the Euro allows for a little more moisture to return to the area ahead of the trough. This coupled with a more amplified system would lead to a better chance of rain. However; the Euro solution appears to be a loner as last night the two models were in a little more agreement. With that, I sided towards a drier solution given the short return flow and lacking moisture. If the GFS trends slower over the next couple days, POPs may need to be adjusted upwards on Monday. After Monday, High pressure will build over the eastern US leading to clear skies and a gradual warming trend through the remainder of the forecast.

Temperatures will gradually warm throughout the week beginning with highs in the low to mid 60s Sunday and likely reaching the low 70s by Wednesday. Lows will be a little closer to seasonable with lows in the low to mid 40s. The only caveat to temperatures would be Monday if the Euro solution materializes. BB/03

MARINE...Northerly winds and seas will rebuild this afternoon through Friday night in response to a strengthening surface trough across the eastern gulf and Florida Peninsula and a surface ridge of high pressure over the southern plains. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued from 3pm this afternoon to 6 AM Saturday for the gulf waters. This advisory may need to be expanded to include Southern Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound starting late tonight. Until then, small craft should exercise caution. The northerly winds and seas will diminish over the weekend as the surface ridge shifts east over the north central gulf. /22

NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3pm this afternoon to 6am CST Saturday for GMZ650-655-670-675.