North Mobile Bay Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...Southwest Winds 8 To 13 Knots Becoming West 3 To 8 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Late In The Evening.|
|Wednesday...Northwest Winds 3 To 8 Knots Becoming Southwest. Waves Around 1 Foot. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming West 3 To 8 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Thursday...Winds Light Becoming Southwest 5 To 10 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday Night...Southwest Winds 8 To 13 Knots Becoming West 5 To 10 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Friday...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southwest 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Friday Night...West Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Saturday...West Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Saturday Night...Southwest Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Sunday...West Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Sunday Night...Southwest Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
| Synopsis For Pascagoula MS To Okaloosa Walton County Line FL Out 60 NM Including Major Area Bays And Sounds - GMZ600|
940 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021
A typical summertime pattern will continue through much of the week with offshore winds overnight turning onshore through the afternoon. Southwesterly to westerly flow is expected to develop Friday through the weekend. Seas remain around 1-2 feet through the period.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1113pm CDT Tuesday July 27 2021
Near Term - Now Through Thursday
Clusters of storms continue to develop along outflow boundaries racing across the area at this hour. The bulk of the activity has transitioned into southeast Mississippi and is slowly drifting to the west and southwest. Showers and storms are still expected to linger for the next few hours. Adjusted the POPs overnight to reflect the ongoing convective trends. Temperatures are still hovering in the low 80s near the coastline with upper 70s inland for the most part at this hour. Temperatures will fall a few more degrees overnight (similar to the past few nights) with upper 70s at the beaches and mid 70s elsewhere.
An expansive mid and upper level ridge continues to amplify as it builds over the western and central portions of the CONUS on Wednesday as a trough begins to dig across the Mid Atlantic region. The ridge begins to expand further to the east toward the Deep South Wednesday night into Thursday. Another ridge remains draped across the western Atlantic through the period. Looking to our south, a weak upper low or inverted trough slowly slides west into the southern Gulf by Thursday. Winds aloft remain weak on Wednesday and turn northeasterly to easterly by Thursday as the ridge nudges toward the region. Down in the lower levels, the surface ridge over the western Atlantic continues to nudge into parts of the Gulf waters while a weak boundary/trough lingers overhead. Plenty of moisture streams into the area on Wednesday along the boundary with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) of 2.0-2.2 inches. Plenty of moisture remains in place across the southern half of the area on Thursday as the boundary eventually washes out. However, recent model guidance indicates PWATs (Precipitable Waters) may crash to 1.5 inches or so by Thursday afternoon north of the Highway 84 corridor.
Expect widespread showers and storms to develop by Wednesday afternoon across the entire area with the highest coverage residing across parts of south central Alabama and northwest Florida. Scattered showers and storms should fire up by mid-morning, but anticipate greatest coverage early afternoon through early evening. A few strong storms are possible on Wednesday, but the bigger concern is potential for minor flooding. Storms on Wednesday will be capable of producing 1-2 inches of rain in a very short period of time given the weak flow aloft (i.e. slow moving storms) and high PWATs. This combination could lead to minor flooding issues, especially where storms repeatedly move across the same locations. Showers and storms should linger til midnight or so over land areas before transitioning into the Gulf early Thursday morning. Expect isolated showers and storms to develop along the coast by late morning on Thursday and spread inland through the afternoon. Scattered showers and storms will again be slow movers on Thursday afternoon, so there is yet another potential for minor flooding on Thursday. That said, given the lower storm coverage on Thursday, flooding is a little less of a concern in comparison to Wednesday.
And now we turn our attention to the potential for *DANGEROUS HEAT* as we head through the remainder of the work week. High temperatures will still be toasty on Wednesday with highs topping out in the mid to low 90s. Highs skyrocket into the mid to upper 90s across inland communities on Thursday with low 90s at the beaches. Would not be surprised if one or two communities in south central Alabama hit the century mark by Thursday afternoon either. Given the high moisture content overhead, dewpoints will unfortunately remain high both days. The combination of hot temperatures and high dewpoints is never a good thing around here. Expect widespread heat indices in the 103-107° range on Wednesday with several locations possibly rising to 108°. That said, confidence is not very high with regard to how widespread the 108° heat indices will be on Wednesday. This will need to be monitored for a potential Heat Advisory. Thursday is a completely different story as heat indices will skyrocket into the 107-113° range. A Heat Advisory will be necessary for Thursday and if numbers continue to climb, an Excessive Heat Warning might be necessary for parts of the area. We cannot stress enough how dangerous the heat will be area-wide on Thursday (and into the short term forecast on Friday). PLEASE take extra precautions when spending time outdoors. 07/mb
NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.