North Mobile Bay Marine Forecast
|Today...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. Showers Likely In The Morning. Chance Of Thunderstorms. Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Tonight...North Winds 13 To 18 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. Showers Likely In The Evening.|
|Wednesday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 20 Knots Diminishing To 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
|Wednesday Night...North Winds 8 To 13 Knots Becoming 5 To 10 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
|Thursday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming 3 To 8 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
|Thursday Night...Northwest Winds 3 To 8 Knots Becoming North. Waves Less Than 1 Foot.|
|Friday...East Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Friday Night...Northeast Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Chance Of Showers.|
|Saturday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Chance Of Showers.|
|Saturday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
| Synopsis For Pascagoula MS To Okaloosa Walton County Line FL Out 60 NM Including Major Area Bays And Sounds - GMZ600|
347 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021
.A frontal wave of low pressure crosses the coastal waters today. A few strong to severe marine storms will be possible east and southeast of the low track today and perhaps into the early evening before ending. With the low lifting out to the east and high pressure expanding eastward into the Lower MS River Valley late tonight, a moderate to strong offshore flow sets up and lingers into early Wednesday. Next chance of showers enters the forecast Friday into Saturday.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mobile AL
342am CST Tuesday Mar 2 2021
Near Term Update - Now Through Wednesday
Radar shows next wave of rain spreading in from the west as the next system is on deck and approaching the batters box. We continue to be sandwiched between a strong upper level high to our south and an approaching upper level low centered over the Red River valley. Shortwave ridging is in place early on, but that will quickly change as the upper level low begins to approach the Lower Mississippi Valley today. At the surface, a cold front has settled southward over the northern Gulf, south of the area waters and has become quasi-stationary. The alignment of the front is important as a wave of low pressure tracks east northeast along the boundary into our coastal waters later today. The latest guidance suggests that the bit more southward position of the low and low track more over the coastal waters would keep the boundary from making much northward progress. An over-running precipitation shield on the cool side of the boundary occurs through most of the day with the heaviest precipitation over the interior and mainly focused along and north of US highway 84. This area has been marked with 100% probability of precipitation today. Now with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) in the 1 to 1.5 inch range, there is plenty of moisture for some heavy rainfall especially if storms are able to train over the same locations. The interior zones of southwest AL and portions of the northwest FL Panhandle, mainly north of I-10 are outlooked with a marginal risk of excessive rainfall. While flash flooding seems unlikely, some areas in the marginal risk area could see 1 to 3 inches of rain and localized nuisance flooding is not out of the question.
Now by late this afternoon and into the early evening, the upper trough will continue its quick progression eastward and the surface low will move off to our east. There will be a brief period we will need to monitor the immediate coast of the Florida Panhandle mainly from Navarre to Destin because if there is any northward deviation of the low track, the surface warm front may inch closer to the coast. If, and this is the biggest of IFs, the warm front is able to sneak onshore and some surface instability is realized, the shear profile would be supportive of at least a strong storm with damaging winds. Now recent guidance has suggested that the front may have a harder time moving north than previously expected and with heavy amounts of reinforcing rain on the cool side of the boundary we would lean heavily on just a moderate to locally heavy rain outcome than strong storms. A rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out though as these are forecast to be elevated on the cool side of the boundary. Thus, posing no severe weather risk. By Midnight, the trough will begin to exit the area along with the rain. Conditions will dry out for Wednesday as northwesterly to northerly flow develops.
Temperatures will be on the cooler side today as rain will likely limit temperatures from getting to high. Highs will be in the 50s to possibly 60 along the immediate coast from Gulf Shores eastward into the Florida Panhandle. Lows tonight will be cool as drier and cooler air funnels into the area. Lows will drop into the upper 30s to low 40s across the area. By Wednesday, continued cloud cover will likely limit highs but some clearing could occur late in the afternoon. For now highs are expected to climb into the upper 50s to near 60, but if the sun comes out earlier, some locations could get warmer. /03 /10
.Short Term - Wednesday Night Through Thursday Night
The west to northwest flow aloft continues through the short term period, allowing dry, cool surface high pressure that will be located just to the west of the forecast area Wednesday night to drift east across the forecast area Thursday and Thursday night. Light north to northeasterly flow is expected during the short term, with mostly clear skies and no precipitation. Wednesday night will be the coolest of the week, with lows ranging from the mid and upper 30s over our inland, northwestern counties to the lower 40s inland southeast counties and some mid to upper 40s along the coast. On Thursday highs are expected to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s across the entire area. Warming ever so slightly Thursday night with lows mostly in the lower 40s for all areas north of the coast, but again mid to upper 40s along the coast. /12
Extended Term - Friday Through Monday
A positively tilted shortwave trough aloft located over the Southern Plains on Friday morning moves across the deep south through Saturday. An associated surface low located over over the TX/OK border begins moving southeast out over the Gulf by Friday night. The surface low then tracks east across the northern Gulf waters just south of our offshore waters towards the FL Panhandle through Saturday. Rain chances increase going into late Friday afternoon as divergence aloft and positive vorticity advection assoicated with the shortwave aloft, and surface pressure troughing extending from the low assist with lift over the region through Saturday morning. There is good model agreement that the highest rain chances will remain over the marine waters and closer to the coast which makes sense given the lack of return flow over the region otherwise. There is a possibility for a brief isolated thunderstorm early Saturday morning over the offshore marine waters, otherwise model guidance lacks instability.
Rain chances quickly taper of from west to east going into Saturday evening with dry conditions expected through the rest of the extended as ridging aloft builds in behind the previously mentioned shortwave aloft. At the surface, high pressure located over the Ohio River Valley on Saturday afternoon slowly shifts east with surface ridging nosing into the region from the north-northwest. Northerly surface flow begins to turn more easterly on Sunday as our region remains on the southwest periphery of the surface ridging. Through Monday the surface high continues east out over the Atlantic bringing southeasterly flow back to region. Temperatures through the extended have a general warming trend with highs on Friday starting out in the mid and upper 60s increasing to the low to mid 70s by Monday. Low temps remain in low to upper 40s across the region through the extended. JEH/88
A moderate to strong easterly flow early today varies in direction this afternoon as frontal wave of low pressure crosses the coastal waters. A few strong to severe marine storms will be possible east and southeast of the low track today and perhaps into the early evening before ending. With the low lifting out to the east and high pressure expanding eastward into the Lower MS River Valley late tonight, a moderate to strong offshore flow returns and lingers into Wednesday. Small craft advisories over the open Gulf waters remain unchanged and in effect until mid morning Wednesday. Small craft should exercise caution over portions of area bays and sounds. /10
NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10am CST Wednesday for GMZ650-655- 670-675.