North Mobile Bay Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming West Late. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Moderate Chop. |
| Tuesday...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Tuesday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Northwest After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening. |
| Wednesday...North Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming West Around 5 Knots In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Smooth. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Wednesday Night...West Winds Around 5 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Smooth. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening. |
| Thursday...Northwest Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming Southwest In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Thursday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. |
| Friday...Southwest Winds Around 5 Knots, Increasing To 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. |
| Friday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. |
| Saturday...Southwest Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming South In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. |
| Saturday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1247pm CDT Monday Jun 22 2026 Issued at 1235pm CDT Monday Jun 22 2026 22.12Z Upper air maps show a flat mid-level ridge oriented east to west from the southwest Atlantic to the Gulf. North of the ridge, embedded in the westerlies is a short wave trough at mid to high levels ejecting eastward across the MS Valley. At the surface, high pressure over the Gulf is maintaining a southwest flow over the area. To the north, a front extends from the OH River Valley southwest into north TX. The local environment is potent w/regard to instability w/SBCAPEs (Convective Available Potential Energy - high values indicate potential for severe weather) 3500 to 4000 J/KG. Shear weak. Although a bit lower than last week, environmental moisture (PWAT's: 1.7 to 2.0") is still more than sufficient to support rain chances. An average of the range being about one standard deviation above the means for the latter half of June. Despite sufficiency in environmental instability and moisture, showers and storms look to remain mostly isolated in coverage the remainder of the day. Upstream however, southeast of the front, a convective outflow boundary was tracking southeast across central MS and forecasters will be watching this feature in the near term as a point of focus for additional convective initiation organizing into a line later today. The high resolution short range ensembles suggest a linear convective band dropping southeast over the interior this evening, primarily along and north of US Highway 84. Some of the storms could be strong to marginally severe with strong to briefly severe wind gusts being the main threat. There are indications that the line will begin to break up/weaken by and after midnight as the boundary spreads southward and the right rear quadrant of H85 jet 30-35kts lifts out across the GA. We appear to be moving into a challenging, convectively active period Tuesday through Thursday as mid-level systems caught up in an evolving northwest flow aloft favor the passage of a series of convective complexes. In addition to these, left over weak mesoscale boundaries in a persistently moist and unstable environment leads to probabilities of precipitation (PoPs) at chance to likely each day. Probability of Precipitation lower each night and reflect more of a summer-time diurnal convective mode. Some of storms possibly strong to marginally severe. Locally heavy rains also a possibility, but hopefully occurrences will be brief. Rain cooled bubble highs in the wake of the storms would favor limited residence time over any one location to present flooding problems with more of a progressive storm motion. But considering the recent excessive rainfall event we are coming out of, it will not take much for a flooding response, especially on poor drained lower lying and urban areas. So forecasters will be watching this closely as well. A transition into a more benign weather pattern sets up Friday and more so into the weekend as upper level high pressure builds. Highest daytime heat indices through the period range mostly 101 to 106. Tuesday, there are a few locations especially closer to bays and inland waterways which may be around 108. High Risk of rip currents through this evening as beach services were flying red flags for rip currents this morning. The guidance continues to reflect a downward trend to moderate risk tonight into Tuesday, then low mid week. /10 .Hydrology...Eight rivers continue to remain in flood. Please see weather.gov/mob for the latest statements and warnings. /10 Marine Issued at 1235pm CDT Monday Jun 22 2026 Impacts the middle of the week come from southward propagating thunderstorm complexes potentially spreading out over the marine area. These will bring abrupt strong gusty wind shifts, locally higher waves, seas, and frequent lightning activity. /10 NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories AL...High Rip Current Risk until 7pm CDT this evening for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7pm CDT this evening for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...None. GM...None. |
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