North Mobile Bay Marine Forecast
|Today...Winds Light. Waves Less Than 1 Foot. Areas Of Dense Fog In The Morning. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. Showers Likely In The Afternoon.|
|Tonight...Winds Light Becoming North 3 To 8 Knots. Waves Less Than 1 Foot. Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Showers Likely After Midnight.|
|Saturday...North Winds 3 To 8 Knots Increasing To 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Slight Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Saturday Night...Northeast Winds 8 To 13 Knots Becoming East. Waves Around 1 Foot. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then Showers Likely After Midnight.|
|Sunday...Southeast Winds 13 To 18 Knots Becoming Southwest 15 To 20 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. Showers. Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Sunday Night...West Winds 18 To 23 Knots Becoming Northwest. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. Chance Of Showers In The Evening.|
|Monday...Northwest Winds 18 To 23 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet.|
|Monday Night...Northwest Winds 18 To 23 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet.|
|Tuesday...Northwest Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
|Tuesday Night...Northwest Winds 3 To 8 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
| Synopsis For Pascagoula MS To Okaloosa Walton County Line FL Out 60 NM Including Major Area Bays And Sounds - GMZ600|
343 AM CST Fri Nov 27 2020
Areas of fog will affect the bays and near shore waters until mid morning. A cold front approaching from the west moves through the marine area tonight with light southerly winds becoming northerly. Light to moderate northerly winds on Saturday become easterly and increase Saturday night then switch to a strong southerly flow on Sunday as another cold front approaches from the west. This next front moves through Sunday night with a strong offshore flow persisting in the wake of the front until subsiding on Tuesday.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
...UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL
532am CST Fri Nov 27 2020
NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Saturday/...An upper trough which extends from the western Great Lakes into the central Plains progresses across the interior eastern states through Saturday morning, then moves off into the western Atlantic in the afternoon. An upper low initially located over Arizona meanwhile slowly advances eastward into the Texas panhandle region by Saturday afternoon. A warm front which is currently oriented near the coast drifts slowly northward into the northern portion of the forecast area today. Have continued with a Dense Fog Advisory for much of the area until 8 am this morning, and may need to be extended an hour or two over interior areas depending on how quickly the warm front advances northward. A cold front will be meanwhile approaching from the west and then pushes through the forecast area and into the northern Gulf tonight, where it then stalls and lingers into Saturday. As the upper low slowly advances eastward, a series of shortwaves progress downstream in a nearly zonal flow over the forecast region. These shortwaves combined with the warm front slowly lifting northward will support likely to categorical probability of precipitation over much of the area by this afternoon, then the entire area tonight as the cold front moves through the area. SBCAPE values of 500-750 J/kg develop today with the passage of the warm front with the higher values generally over southeast Mississippi. 0-6 km bulk shear values of 30 to possibly 40 knots will be present over the area for much of the day, but 0-1 km helicity values look to remain low, less than 50 m2/s2. While model soundings are pretty moist, if the higher end bulk shear values materialize, then with the somewhat better instability over southeast Mississippi, the marginal risk for this portion from the Storm Prediction Center looks ok. Rain chances diminish on Saturday in the wake of the front as drier air flows into the interior portion of the area, and will have dry conditions developing over interior areas during the day while probability of precipitation decrease to slight chance closer to the coast. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 70s west of I-65 and in the mid to upper 70s east of I-65. Highs on Saturday will be cooler in the wake of the front, and range from the mid 60s to around 70 along and west of I- 65 with lower 70s further to the east. Lows tonight range from the mid to upper 50s well inland to 60-65 elsewhere. Have continued with a moderate risk for today due to an indicated 2 ft/6-7s swell at 42012, then a low risk follows for tonight and Saturday as the swell subsides and winds turn northerly in the wake of the front. /29
SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Sunday night/...An active period of weather is on tap Saturday night into Sunday night as a cutoff upper level low (ULL) approaches from the west and merges/phases with the upper level trough pushing across the central and eastern U.S. during the period. Saturday night will feature isolated showers across southern AL and eastern MS, gradually increasing in coverage throughout the night into early Sunday morning for the rest of the CWA. By Sunday morning a deep, muggy airmass will be advecting into the region ahead of a developing surface low to the west of our area in response to the ULL and trough beginning to interact. As this occurs large scale ascent over the area will foster the development of numerous rain showers during the overnight into Sunday morning, some of which may produce heavy rainfall. As we push forward into the late morning and afternoon hours, some surface destabilization will likely materialize allowing for the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. The exact degree of destabilization remains in question, and will govern any chances for severe weather. At this time, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a marginal risk for severe storms Sunday for most of the CWA. Along and ahead of the cold front Sunday afternoon, meager instability coupled with strong bulk shear values approaching 50 to 60kts will be present across the region. This High Shear Low CAPE (HSLC) environment is a staple of the southeastern U.S., and often is difficult to gauge the extent of the associated severe risk this far out. The surface front will continue to rapidly move across the area by Sunday evening, likely completely clearing the area by or just after midnight. Temperatures will generally be in the upper 50's to lower 60's Saturday night, rebounding quickly during the day Sunday into the upper 60's to lower 70's along and south of the I-65 corridor, with middle 60's north. Sunday night temperatures begin to crash behind the front, reaching the upper 30's over west-central AL, with lower to middle 40's for most other locations. Along the immediate coastline temperatures may only dip down to the upper 40's. 25/MM
EXTENDED TERM /Monday Through Thursday/....Monday morning begins much colder and windier on the west side of a departing anomalously cold mid- and upper trough with deep cold air advection poised to endure through midday Tuesday as the center of surface high pressure builds into the region. This will absolutely be the coldest air of the season thus far and is a harbinger of a pattern change to a more highly amplified pattern with periodic shots of cold air past this period. One possible fly in the proverbial ointment is that cloud cover Monday may not clear off rapidly and a post frontal ceiling may endure most of the day. If that were to occur, temperatures may even fall during the day and the 24 h maximum temperature may be reached at midnight. Wait and see. Temperatures are the big story this period with afternoon highs not getting out of the 40s and 50s both Monday and Tuesday, only moderating to the 50s to near 60 on Wednesday and 50s and lower 60s on Thursday. A hard freeze is expected Tuesday morning as lows over interior southwest Alabama and southeast MS range from the mid 20s there to lower 30s on the beaches, while Wednesday morning is about the same. Minimum temperatures then moderate somewhat Thursday morning but a large chunk of the interior will see a light freeze for a third straight night and this brings an abrupt end to the growing season. A chance of rain returns by Thursday as yet another system approaches with more cold air behind it(beyond the period). /23 JMM
MARINE...A marine Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for the bays and near shore waters until 10 am. A Small Craft Advisory will likely become necessary over much of the marine area on Sunday which will then continue through Monday night, with gusts to gale force possible, until winds and seas subside. /29
NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8am CST this morning for ALZ052-053- 055>060-261>266.
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8am CST this morning for FLZ201>206.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 8am CST this morning for MSZ075-076- 078-079.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10am CST this morning for GMZ630>636- 650-655.