Marine Weather Net

North Mobile Bay Marine Forecast


REST OF TODAY

N
WINDS
18 - 23
KNOTS

TONIGHT

N
WINDS
18 - 23
KNOTS

MONDAY

N
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

MONDAY NIGHT

N
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ630 Forecast Issued: 940 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2020

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
Rest Of Today...North Winds 18 To 23 Knots Diminishing To 15 To 20 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet.
Tonight...North Winds 18 To 23 Knots With Gusts To Around 25 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet.
Monday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots. Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.
Monday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots Increasing To 13 To 18 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.
Tuesday...North Winds 13 To 18 Knots Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.
Tuesday Night...North Winds 8 To 13 Knots Becoming Northeast. Waves Around 1 Foot.
Wednesday...East Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.
Wednesday Night...East Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.
Thursday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Chance Of Showers.
Thursday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Showers Likely And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
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Synopsis For Pascagoula MS To Okaloosa Walton County Line FL Out 60 NM Including Major Area Bays And Sounds - GMZ600
940 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2020

Moderate to strong northerly winds will persist into Tuesday in the wake of a cold frontal passage early this morning. A light to moderate easterly flow develops Wednesday strengthening slightly by Thursday as another cold front approaches from the west.
Area Forecast Discussion
...UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL
543am CST Sunday Jan 19 2020

See updated information for land areas and aviation discussion below.

The forecast remains on track early this morning. Latest radar shows most of the shower activity has progressed to the east. Some light showers continue over the marine areas, but this is expected to dissipate/move out of the area within a couple hours. Winds have picked up behind the front as well, with wind gusts between 20 and 25 knots in the Mobile area in the last hour or so. Did adjust sky cover slightly since the clouds seem to be slower in progressing to the southeast according to satellite imagery. Other than this, no other changes were needed at this time. /26

Updated for latest marine discussion below.

MARINE...Due to persistent moderate to strong northerly winds expected through early afternoon Tuesday, the Small Craft Advisory has been extended and is now in effect from 3am this morning until 12pm Tuesday for southern Mobile Bay, Mississippi Sound, and the coastal waters. /26

Near Term - Now Through Sunday night
Upper level zonal flow continues over the northern Gulf coast early this morning as a northern stream trough progresses over the Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley regions. This feature will then move over the northeastern CONUS by Monday morning, with generally zonal flow maintaining its hold over our area. At the surface, a cold front is currently progressing over our area, and radar shows light showers out ahead of it.

No lightning has been reported in the last 30 minutes or so; therefore, the threat of thunder has diminished. Expecting shower activity to end for our area by mid-morning as well. Furthermore, winds will begin to increase to be between 10 and 15 knots this morning, with higher winds near the coast. Sky cover will also begin to decrease from northwest to southeast during the day today. By this evening, skies are expected to be clear as surface high pressure builds into the southeastern CONUS from the west. Dry weather will then comprise the rest of the near term period.

Dry weather is expected into tomorrow; however, it will be much colder than we've seen recently. In fact, temperatures will be below normal for this time of year after being well above normal for a stretch. Highs today are only likely to reach the lower to mid 50s. By late tonight into early tomorrow morning, low temperatures will then drop into the upper 20s further inland and into the lower 30s near the coast.

Lastly, a HIGH risk of rip currents is in effect through this afternoon. /26

Short Term - Monday Through Tuesday Night
An upper trough pattern over the eastern states moves off into the western Atlantic Tuesday night followed by an upper ridge building from the central states into the eastern states. A deep layer dry northerly flow prevails as a large surface ridge builds into the eastern states with cool/cold conditions expected for the forecast area. Highs on Monday and Tuesday range from the mid 40s inland to near 50 close to the coast, values which are about 10 degrees below normal. Lows Monday night range from the mid 20s inland to near 30 close to the coast followed by similar temperatures for Tuesday night. A low risk of rip currents is expected through the period. /29

Long Term - Wednesday Through Saturday
The upper ridge over the eastern states moves off into the western Atlantic through Thursday as an amplifying upper trough advances from the northwest states into the central states. There continues to be uncertainty with this next system, but current indications are that an upper low evolves over the central Plains within the upper trough pattern Thursday night and then moves off towards the Great Lakes through Saturday. An associated surface low moves from the southern Plains towards the New England area during the period, but depending on how the upper pattern plays out, this system will bring a cold front will move through the forecast area as early as Thursday night or as late as Friday night. Dry conditions continue through Wednesday followed by slight chance to chance probability of precipitation returning to much of the area on Thursday. Likely probability of precipitation follow for Friday then mostly dry conditions are expected for Saturday. Instability continues to look rather limited ahead of/along the cold front but have opted to keep mention of a slight chance of thunder for Thursday night into Friday and will continue to monitor. /29

MARINE...Northerly flow has developed as a cold front continues to progress over the area late tonight/early this morning. The front is expected to continue eastward and be to our east by mid-morning, however. Offshore flow will become moderate to strong this morning and persist into Tuesday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect from 3am this morning until 12pm Monday for the increased northerly winds over the coastal waters, as well as the Mississippi Sound and Mobile Bay. Although, this may need to be extended into Tuesday. Northerly winds and seas will slowly start to diminish Tuesday, then become easterly by early Wednesday morning. Moderate easterly flow is expected through late week, but winds will shift to be from the southeast and begin to increase early Friday as another cold front approaches from the west. /26

NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for GMZ631-632-650- 655-670-675.

Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for GMZ630.