North Mobile Bay Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Tonight...Southwest Winds Around 5 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Smooth. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Sunday...Northwest Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming South In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Smooth. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Sunday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. A Chance Of Thunderstorms. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Monday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Showers And Thunderstorms Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Monday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Tuesday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Tuesday Night...East Winds Around 5 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Smooth. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening. |
| Wednesday...Northeast Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming Southwest In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Smooth. |
| Wednesday Night...Southwest Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming Northwest Around 5 Knots After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Smooth. |
| Thursday...North Winds Around 5 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Smooth. |
| Thursday Night...Northwest Winds Around 5 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Smooth. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 330pm CDT Sat September 14 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TER Marine Near Term (Now through Sunday) Issued at 330pm CDT Sat September 14 2024 The remnant low from Francine continues to meander slowly over northern Mississippi this afternoon and will continue this pattern through the next 24 hours or so. An axis of convergence stretching from the surface low, southeastward through southern Alabama was generating isolated to scattered showers, with more coverage noted over eastern Alabama, lingering from a heavier band from this morning. The low will continue to pivot over Mississippi through the next couple of days, keeping daily chances of showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area. Through the rest of the day and into the overnight hours, expect shower/storm coverage to remain isolated to scattered, aided by diurnal heating. This activity will diminish somewhat this evening, but isolated thunderstorms will remain possible. Seasonably warm temperatures will also persist, with highs topping out in the upper 80s to lower 90s today and dropping into the upper 60s to lower 70s by daybreak on Sunday. The coverage of showers/storms will increase during the day on Sunday, as the low slides to the south and the convergence axis slides further south. Forecast guidance is not very consistent on where this axis will eventually stall, so confidence on where the heaviest rain occurs is low. As of now, storm total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected, with some locally higher amounts of up to 3 inches. There is a signal for an axis of heavy rain to develop over portions of southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama, though these areas have a FFG >3 inches an hour. Ensemble probabilities are very low that we will exceed these values, and even less for our 3 and 6 hour FFG. Therefore, the potential for flooding would be confined to those areas where rainfall rates are very high or in our traditionally poor drainage areas. Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the overnight hours Sunday, though the coverage should diminish. Temperatures on Sunday will be slightly below norms, with the precipitation and cloud cover, and highs will only climb into the upper 70s to mid 80s. Overnight lows will remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s. /73 .SHORT TERM... (Sunday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 330pm CDT Sat September 14 2024 Quasi-stationary front becomes stalled near the coast into Monday. With this feature nearby, the weather pattern remains unsettled with scattered to numerous showers and storms to open up the work week. The front is forecast to be aligned west to east from coastal LA to across the northern FL Peninsula by Tuesday. Along the front, a wave of frontal low pressure is positioned over the AL/western FL coastal waters. With the feature nearby, the forecast calls for a chance to likely Probability of Precipitation Tuesday, generally south of Hwy 84. The better Probability of Precipitation in the range are drawn closer to the coast. Tuesday night, a slight chance to chance Probability of Precipitation look to become focused over the open Gulf waters with Probability of Precipitation lowering to 10% or less over the land zones. With the clouds and increased rain chances, coolest daily highs 77 to 81 across and north of the Hwy 84 corridor Monday will be well below climo by some 5 to 10 degrees. Lower half of the 80s, southward to the coast Monday will be below normal by some 3 to 6 degrees. Overnight lows in the mid/upper 60s north of I-10 to lower 70s coast will be a few degrees above normal on average. /10 Long Term (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 330pm CDT Sat September 14 2024 The latest 14.12Z global models remain consistent on showing the upper level geo-potential height field undergoing amplification by mid week and persisting into the start of the weekend. Trough axis becomes aligned from near the OH River Valley, southward to across FL with narrow upper ridge extending from the Rio Grande Valley, nosing northward into the Mid MS River Valley. On the southwest flank of the upper trough, drier deep layer air overspreads the central Gulf coast, favoring what is appearing to be a rainfree pattern Thursday thru Saturday. Highs trend upward and slightly above climo numbers, ranging 86 to 91. Lows in the lower/mid 60s interior to 67 to 72 closer to the coast. /10 Marine Issued at 330pm CDT Sat September 14 2024 Main impacts the next few days will come from thunderstorms, bringing brief strong wind gusts and locally higher seas. NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. |
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