Marine Weather Net

Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

E
WINDS
18 - 23
KNOTS

THURSDAY

W
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

THURSDAY NIGHT

N
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

FRIDAY

NE
WINDS
13 - 18
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ650 Forecast Issued: 607 PM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT
Tonight...East Winds 18 To 23 Knots Becoming Southwest 10 To 15 Knots. Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Showers Likely And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Showers And Chance Of Thunderstorms After Midnight.
Thursday...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Northwest. Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Showers And Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Thursday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Northeast 13 To 18 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Friday...Northeast Winds 13 To 18 Knots Becoming East. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Friday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Southeast. Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Chance Of Showers In The Evening. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. Showers Likely After Midnight.
Saturday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming West. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Showers Likely And Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Saturday Night...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Sunday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Sunday Night...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Chance Of Showers.
Monday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers.
Monday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Chance Of Showers.
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Synopsis For Pascagoula MS To Okaloosa Walton County Line FL Out 60 NM Including Major Area Bays And Sounds - GMZ600
607 PM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

Easterly to southeasterly flow will increase this evening ahead of an approaching cold front. Offshore flow returns Thursday following the passage of a cold front. Little change in seas is expected through this week, except near thunderstorms from late tonight through Thursday where they could approach 7 to 8 feet in sudden squalls.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
706pm CDT Wednesday April 14 2021

.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Thursday night/...A complex of showers and thunderstorms shifted offshore this afternoon into the marine zones while a broad shield of moderate to heavy stratiform rain resides on the back side of this thunderstorm complex gradually comes to an end from northwest to southeast. Strong, gusty winds have developed on the back side of this stratiform rain region with sustained winds near 20mph gusting 30 to 45mph. Given this have issued a short duration wind advisory for interior southwestern and south-central Alabama until 7pm CDT this evening. Expect continued precipitation to occur across southwestern MS into southwestern AL and the FL panhandle over the next few hours, with an isolated thunderstorm or two possible. Rainfall will continue to be moderate to at times heavy.

A lull in convection will occur late this evening into the early overnight, but another complex of showers and thunderstorms will likely develop over south-central MS into southwestern AL in association with a southeastward moving cold front and move across the region during the overnight into morning hours Thursday. This activity should make its way south and east rather quickly, and be out of the CWA by early afternoon Thursday. With any showers and thunderstorms presently ongoing through Thursday, heavy rainfall is possible with localized flash flooding, particularly across southeastern MS and far southwestern AL where a flash flood watch remains in effect through Thursday morning.

Temperatures are quite variant over the region, with lower 60's presently where precipitation is ongoing and upper 70's to lower 80's east of I-65 where afternoon heating has been allowed to occur. As precipitation moves east, expect temperatures to gradually fall in the current warm areas late afternoon into early evening as temperatures wetbulb into the upper 60's and lower 70's. Elsewhere, temperatures should stay steady in the lower to middle 60's, with some small recovery possible into the middle and upper 60's along the immediate coast. Tonight, temperatures will not deviate much with lows expected to be in the lower 60's inland and middle 60's along the coast. Thursday high temperatures will be contingent upon the convective evolution, with most model guidance allowing for temperatures to warm to near 70. If convection clears out quickly, temperatures could make it into the lower to middle 70's. If it lingers for longer, most areas may stay stuck in the middle to upper 60's. A HIGH RISK for rip currents continues through Saturday morning. MM/25

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Thursday/...A complex of showers and thunderstorms shifted offshore this afternoon into the marine zones while a broad shield of moderate to heavy stratiform rain resides on the back side of this thunderstorm complex gradually comes to an end from northwest to southeast. Strong, gusty winds have developed on the back side of this stratiform rain region with sustained winds near 20mph gusting 30 to 45mph. Given this have issued a short duration wind advisory for interior southwestern and south-central Alabama until 7pm CDT this evening. Expect continued precipitation to occur across southwestern MS into southwestern AL and the FL panhandle over the next few hours, with an isolated thunderstorm or two possible. Rainfall will continue to be moderate to at times heavy.

A lull in convection will occur late this evening into the early overnight, but another complex of showers and thunderstorms will likely develop over south-central MS into southwestern AL in association with a southeastward moving cold front and move across the region during the overnight into morning hours Thursday. This activity should make its way south and east rather quickly, and be out of the CWA by early afternoon Thursday. With any showers and thunderstorms presently ongoing through Thursday, heavy rainfall is possible with localized flash flooding, particularly across southeastern MS and far southwestern AL where a flash flood watch remains in effect through Thursday morning.

Temperatures are quite variant over the region, with lower 60's presently where precipitation is ongoing and upper 70's to lower 80's east of I-65 where afternoon heating has been allowed to occur. As precipitation moves east, expect temperatures to gradually fall in the current warm areas late afternoon into early evening as temperatures wetbulb into the upper 60's and lower 70's. Elsewhere, temperatures should stay steady in the lower to middle 60's, with some small recovery possible into the middle and upper 60's along the immediate coast. Tonight, temperatures will not deviate much with lows expected to be in the lower 60's inland and middle 60's along the coast. Thursday high temperatures will be contingent upon the convective evolution, with most model guidance allowing for temperatures to warm to near 70. If convection clears out quickly, temperatures could make it into the lower to middle 70's. If it lingers for longer, most areas may stay stuck in the middle to upper 60's. A HIGH RISK for rip currents continues through Saturday morning. MM/25

Short Term - Thursday Night Through Saturday Night
Zonal flow aloft persists through the period as an upper low over the northeastern CONUS slowly makes it way northeast and eventually out over the Atlantic a more expansive low and associated shortwave located over the southwestern CONUS begins to widen and split with one shortwave moving into the Plains and a secondary deeper positively tilted digging into the southwest CONUS through the period. Despite having persistent zonal flow, embedded subtle shortwaves aloft within the flow continue to move east across the region through the period. In the low-levels, ridging remains rooted in place out over the Gulf and western Atlantic through Thursday night before retreating as a wave of low pressure that moves southeast over TX through Friday night. This low will then ride east- southeast along the stalled front draped along the Gulf Coast through the overnight hours and into early Saturday.

A brief lull in weather is in store for Thursday night as the area dries out, however it is short-lived and rain and storm chances quickly pick back up on Friday. Rainfall on Friday is not anticipated to be high in terms of accumulation. However, moving into overnight Friday a shield of precipitation will grow and slide into the western portion of our area as a plume of 1.5-1.7 inch PWATs (Precipitable Waters) surges back into the area. A band of heavy rain will push into the area overnight Friday into early Saturday as the wave of low pressure nears the area and is pretty much parked along the MS Gulf Coast by Saturday morning. Another 1-2 inches of rain is expected with this next round of heavy rain with locally higher amounts possible. Where this shield of rain sets up and where the rounds of rain in the near term set up make all the difference in terms of the flash flood potential. Given the uncertainty, we are holding off on extending the Flash Flood Watch into Friday/Saturday until we see how much rain is produced over the next 24 hours. This is something we will continue to monitor in upcoming forecast packages. Saturday into Saturday night, a surface warm front extends along the Gulf Coast from the surface low pressure, with surface cold front extending south over the Gulf, and pressure troughing extending north along the I-65 corridor. Looking at model soundings, enough surface base instability is present (~1500 J/kg SBCAPE) along with wind shear, (Effective bulk shear of 45-60kts) along and south of the front for strong to severe storms. Where this will be is the question, with significant inconsistency in the guidance, will need to monitor this as it gets closer. Lastly, a HIGH risk of rip currents remains through Friday night.

As far as temps, cloud cover will prevent temperatures from falling too far on Thursday night with lows generally in the low 50s inland and upper further closer to the coast. Given the next round of rain in addition to increasing cloud cover, temperatures will struggle on Friday afternoon. Highs on Friday will only top out in the 60s inland with low 70s possible across parts of northwest Florida. Temperatures will only fall into the 50s on Friday night with low 60s along the immediate coast as heavy rain moves over the region. 88/07

EXTENDED TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...The surface cold front with troughing extending northwest near I-65 shifts southeast through the weekend as the series of shortwaves aloft pass over the region. Eventually, it will move south of the marine portion of the forecast area sometime on Sunday night into Monday as guidance remains consistent in the rain shifting southeast through the period. There are significant differences in how far southeast the front pushes, along with the path of the passing shortwave energy aloft, and with it, how far north any isentropic induced precipitation stretches. Both the GFS and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) have a chance and slight chance of precipitation moving back into the coastal areas on Monday night and into Tuesday morning, but the rain then quickly moves out as ridging both at the surface and aloft begins to slowly build back into the region on Wednesday. As far as temps as concerned, with increased cloud cover and precipitation chances remaining in areas through Monday, temperatures are expected to be below seasonal norms with daytime highs remaining in the upper 60s to low 70s during this time, and nighttime lows on Sunday night being the coolest with low to mid 40s inland and upper 40s to low 50s further south. By Tuesday, the push of cooler air south over the Southeast has eased, and when combined with a dry airmass, temperatures begin to rebound back to seasonal norms with daytime highs in the low to upper 70s and nighttime lows in the upper 40s well inland to low to upper 50s closer to the coast. JEH/88

MARINE...Southerly flow continues this evening ahead of an approaching cold front. Offshore flow returns Thursday following the passage of a cold front. Little change in seas is expected through this week, except near thunderstorms from late tonight through Thursday where they could approach 7 to 8 feet in sudden squalls. MM/25

NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for ALZ265-266.

Wind Advisory until 10pm CDT this evening for ALZ059-261>266.

Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for ALZ261>266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for FLZ202-204- 206.

Wind Advisory until 10pm CDT this evening for FLZ201>204.

MS...Wind Advisory until 10pm CDT this evening for MSZ078-079.

Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MSZ078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for GMZ630>632- 650-655-670-675.