Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots. Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Tonight...Southeast Winds 18 To 23 Knots Becoming Southwest Around 25 Knots. Gusts Up To 35 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet Building To 7 To 9 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 7 Seconds. Thunderstorms Likely In The Evening. Showers. Chance Of Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Thursday...West Winds 20 To 25 Knots Increasing To 25 To 30 Knots. Gusts Up To 40 Knots. Seas 6 To 9 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 8 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Thursday Night...West Winds 25 To 30 Knots. Gusts Up To 40 Knots. Seas 7 To 10 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 8 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Friday...West Winds 25 To 30 Knots Becoming Northwest Around 25 Knots. Gusts Up To 40 Knots. Seas 5 To 9 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 8 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Friday Night...Northwest Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 4 To 7 Feet Subsiding To 3 To 5 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 7 Seconds.|
|Saturday...Northwest Winds 18 To 23 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds.|
|Saturday Night...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds.|
|Sunday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 4 Seconds.|
|Sunday Night...North Winds 13 To 18 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 3 Seconds.|
| Synopsis For Pascagoula MS To Okaloosa Walton County Line FL Out 60 NM Including Major Area Bays And Sounds - GMZ600|
734 PM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021
A strong southerly flow becomes southwesterly overnight as a strong cold front approaches from the west. A strong westerly flow develops by Thursday morning as the front moves through the area. Gale conditions are possible over the open Gulf waters Thursday through much of Friday afternoon, after which the strong flow gradually tapers off through Sunday.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mobile AL
632pm CDT Wednesday Oct 27 2021
/issued 435pm CDT Wednesday Oct 27 2021/
Near Term Update - Now Through Thursday
A stormy weather pattern will quickly develop across the region during the early evening hours and continue overnight ahead of an approaching upper level storm system and cold front that will be moving east across our forecast area.
A longwave trough deepening over the plains states this afternoon is forecast to take on a negative tilt as low pressure deepens across eastern Oklahoma and moves into Arkansas and southern Missouri tonight and into western Kentucky on Thursday, becoming a large, cut off low. An associated surface low also progresses out of Arkansas this evening and across the mid-Mississippi River by late Thursday afternoon. A warm front will lift north across the area this evening in advance of a cold front that will be approaching from the west. Surface dewpoints are increasing through the 60s late this afternoon, and will surge into the upper 60s and lower 70s across most of the forecast area this evening within the warm sector south of the warm front. A narrow zone of increased buoyancy with MLCAPE values elevated between about 600 to possibly as high as 1900 J/KG across southern portions of our forecast area, mainly this evening into the early predawn hours.
A fairly stout low level jet with 40 to 45 knots of southerly 850 mb flow spreads eastward across our area this evening into late tonight. Deep layer forcing spreads eastward across our forecast area this evening into late tonight, with an organized QLCS likely entering our southeastern MS counties by around 5-6pm and gradually progressing eastward across our forecast area through the evening/overnight hours. Deep layer and low level shear profiles will be more than sufficient for organized convection capable of producing damaging winds with bowing segments, while 0-1 km SRH in excess 200 m2/s2, possibly 400 m2/s2, within the warm sector could result in embedded tornadoes within the convective line.
The severe threat will be most pronounced along central and southern portions of the forecast area, where Storm Prediction Center has maintained a Slight Risk of severe weather, including areas roughly along and to the south of a Waynesboro/Clara, MS-Chatom, AL-Brewton, AL- Florala AL line. Instability will likely be weaker and more elevated in nature over northern portions of the forecast area, where the severe threat will be more marginal. Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts along the primary line of storms will be the main threat, but isolated tornadoes (both in discrete storm cells out ahead of the line, and within the line itself) could be possible. Brief heavy rain will accompany the storms, thanks in part to abundant deep layer moisture with precipitable water values of 2.1-2.4 inches. A quick 1-2" of rain in a short period of time may result in localized nuisance flooding, but the overall flash flood threat remains quite limited/low as the system is expected to be very progressive and move east across the region pretty quickly.
Breezy conditions will accompany the approach and passage of the cold front, and frequent wind gusts to 35 mph will likely be present over our coastal counties. There will also be gusts up to around 30 to 35 mph over inland areas as well, and we have extended the Wind Advisory to cover our entire CWA. Some gusts along the coast could potentially reach 40 mph. The rip current risk quickly ramps up to HIGH by this evening and continues through late Friday night due to a strong southerly flow and developing swell. A High Surf Advisory will be upgraded to a High Surf Warning with this afternoon's forecast package as surf heigheights along the beaches are now expected to possibly be up as high as 8 feet. Also looking at the possibility of some minor coastal flooding along the coast, particularly in those more vulnerable areas along the US 90 Causeway and down around Bayou La Batre. Guidance indicates the possibility of 1.7 to potentially as much as 2.3 feet inundation above normally dry ground in some of those areas. The greatest potential for minor coastal flooding will occur around the time of normal high tides, which will generally be between around 3-5am Thursday morning.
After Categorical Probability of Precipitation areawide tonight, still looking at mostly slight chance Probability of Precipitation by Thursday afternoon, but persisting through the day due to wrap around precipitation from the upper low to the north. /12
Short Term - Thursday Night Through Saturday Night
A vertically stacked closed low will linger over the Tennessee Valley for much of the period. The surface fronts associated with this rather potent system will be well east of the area by Thursday night, but we will likely see some wrap around moisture as the system meanders over the Tennessee Valley region. Model guidance suggests precipitable water values between 0.6 to 0.85 inches which could support some very isolated shower activity, mainly over northern portions of the CWA. A slight chance of showers is also possible over the Gulf waters and along the immediate coast. Given the overall strength of this system, there will be a rather strong pressure gradient in place which will maintain the breezy conditions through much of the period. Sustained winds will be around 10 to 15 mph inland with winds around 20 to 25 mph along the coast. By Saturday morning, the vertically stacked system starts to lift northeast, causing winds to shift from westerly to more northwesterly. The pressure gradient will also weaken slightly as the low starts to lift and therefore, wind speeds should start to decrease slightly throughout the day Saturday. A chance for isolated to scattered showers remains possible over the Gulf waters early Saturday morning, but activity should diminish throughout the day as northerly flow advects slightly drier air into the region. Dry and cool conditions will prevail into Saturday night.
It will feel like Fall in the short term as a cooler air mass settles into the region. Lows each night are expected to range from the upper 40s inland to the lower to mid 50s along the coast. Daytime highs on Friday will only rise into the upper 50s inland to the mid 60s along the coast. By Saturday afternoon, highs will warm slightly, but only into the lower to mid 60s with 70s along the coast. /14
EXTENDED TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...Dry and cool forecast expected through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week.
Northwesterly flow aloft will gradually become zonal as we head into early next week. A surface ridge over the western Gulf slides east across the northern Gulf Coast on Sunday with weak ridging overhead through the early part of the work week. Dry air remains overhead with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) staying well below an inch through at least Monday. A subtle shortwave cruises overhead through the flow aloft Monday night into Tuesday with little fanfare as there is little to no moisture in play during that time. Moisture slowly begins to filter back into the area by the middle part of the week ahead another front. Highs generally remain in the 70s each day through the period. Lows plunge into the upper 40s to low 50s inland each night with slightly warmer temperatures at the beaches. 07/mb
A moderate to strong southeast flow will increase this evening as a strong cold front approaches from the west. A strong southerly flow this evening will gradually become more southwest to west late tonight into Thursday morning as the cold front moves through the marine area. Gale conditions are likely, especially in frequent gusts, over most of the marine area Thursday through Friday afternoon in the wake of the front with strong west to northwest winds expected. The strong northwesterly flow gradually diminishes over the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for tonight, Gale Warnings for all Marine areas Thursday through Friday afternoon (may diminish over bays earlier and we will monitor), then Small Craft Advisory gradually ends into the weekend. /12
NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...Wind Advisory from 10pm this evening to 7pm CDT Thursday for ALZ051>060-261>266.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 10pm this evening to 8am CDT Thursday for ALZ263>266.
High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for ALZ265-266.
High Surf Warning from 10pm this evening to 7pm CDT Friday for ALZ265-266.
FL...Wind Advisory from 10pm this evening to 7pm CDT Thursday for FLZ201>206.
High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ202-204- 206.
High Surf Warning from 10pm this evening to 7pm CDT Friday for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...Wind Advisory from 10pm this evening to 7pm CDT Thursday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7am CDT Thursday for GMZ630>632-650- 670.
Small Craft Advisory from 4pm Friday to 6pm CDT Saturday for GMZ650-655-670-675.
Gale Warning from 7am Thursday to 4pm CDT Friday for GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.
Small Craft Advisory until 7am CDT Thursday for GMZ633>636-655- 675.
Small Craft Advisory from 4pm to 7pm CDT Friday for GMZ631-632.