Marine Weather Net

Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM Marine Forecast


TODAY

SW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TUESDAY

N
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TUESDAY NIGHT

W
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ650 Forecast Issued: 348 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
Today...Southwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Decreasing To 10 To 15 Knots This Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. Wave Detail: Southwest 4 Feet At 5 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms This Afternoon.
Tonight...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots, Becoming West 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: Southwest 3 Feet At 6 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening.
Tuesday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Southwest In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: South 2 Feet At 6 Seconds.
Tuesday Night...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Northwest After Midnight. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: South 2 Feet At 6 Seconds.
Wednesday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming South In The Afternoon. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: Northeast 1 Foot At 2 Seconds And South 1 Foot At 6 Seconds.
Wednesday Night...West Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming Northeast After Midnight. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: Northeast 1 Foot At 2 Seconds And South 1 Foot At 6 Seconds.
Thursday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Southeast In The Afternoon. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: East 1 Foot At 3 Seconds And Southwest 1 Foot At 6 Seconds.
Thursday Night...South Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming East After Midnight. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: South 1 Foot At 4 Seconds.
Friday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Southeast In The Afternoon. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: East 1 Foot At 3 Seconds And Southwest 1 Foot At 6 Seconds.
Friday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: South 1 Foot At 4 Seconds. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.
SHARE THIS PAGE:           
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
713am CDT Monday May 27 2024

/issued 440am CDT Monday May 27 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TER
Marine
Near Term
(Through tonight) Issued at 440am CDT Monday May 27 2024

A mid level shortwave trough was evident on the latest water vapor imagery digging southeast across the western Tennessee Valley into the Aklatex region. At the surface as of 09z, a cold front extended from northwest Tennessee southwestward across central Arkansas and into southeast Oklahoma. There were several upstream convective complexes ongoing well ahead of the front along old outflow boundaries generated from Sunday evening convection. The most robust of these complexes extended from northern Alabama southwest into south-central Mississippi. Another forward propagating mesoscale convective system (MCS) was entering west-central Mississippi and advancing quickly towards the southeast. The atmosphere remains very warm and humid across much of our area southeast of the advancing storms. This is resulting in MLCAPE values between 1500-2500j/kg and steep mid level lapse rates over much of our forecast area. Regional 00z soundings did indicate a decent capping inversion at around 2km AGL. Latest VAD hodographs to the northwest indicate that strong shear remains in place across from northeast Mississippi into north- central Alabama. Long cyclonically curved hodographs in these areas are supporting the ongoing intensity of the convection over these areas. Further south and west, shear weakens as evident from the KJAN, KLIX, and KMOB VAD profiles with deep layer shear ranging from around 40 kts at KJAN to only around 25 kts at KMOB. Despite having plenty of moisture and instability in place, upstream convection will begin to outrun the better forcing and shear with time this morning. This brings into question how much the upstream convection will hold together this morning as this occurs which will have an impact on the overall severe weather potential this morning. The most likely potential for any severe storms this morning will be across our far northwest counties across interior southeast Mississippi into interior southwest Alabama. Even across these locations there remains questions regarding the degree of shear and potential residual capping that could begin to hinder overall convective intensity this far south this morning.

Weakening upstream convection to the northwest this morning should gradually diminish but not before sending a potential convective outflow boundary southeast into our area this morning. This outflow boundary should eventually stall out across interior portions of our forecast area by later this morning and into the afternoon. As the upstream shortwave finally moves southeast towards our area by this afternoon, additional convection should develop along the stalled outflow boundary and in advance of a weak cold front pushing south. The air mass along and south of the boundary will become strongly unstable with MLCAPES ranging from 3000-4000j/kg along with steep mid level lapse rates between 7.0 and 7.5c/km remaining in place. In addition, deep layer shear should increase to between 35-40 kts which should be enough to support organized convection. As storms develop, they should quickly grow upscale as boundary parallel shear supports quick storm interactions. The environment ahead of any developing line of storms should remain favorable to support the potential for a few severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and large hail. This convective line should push southward towards the coast through the afternoon into the early evening hours today and this supports the timing of the greater severe weather threat between early afternoon and early evening. The shortwave will eventually move east of the region by later this evening which will result in storm coverage and intensity eventually diminishing with southward extent as whatever line of storms pushing south into the northern Gulf waters.

The cold front should push south across the entire area overnight with a return to dry weather conditions and slightly lower humidity levels prior to sunrise Tuesday morning. Despite the gradually lower humidity expected by late tonight, there will likely be enough ground moisture to support at least some patchy fog later tonight into early Tuesday morning, especially along our coastal areas as favorable radiational conditions develop after midnight with clearing skies and light winds.

Coastal Hazards... Many of you will be heading out to our local beaches today to celebrate the Memorial Day holiday. Stronger southerly flow over the northern Gulf waters through this morning will maintain a strong northerly directed swell that will continue to move onto the beaches today. This will result in a continued high risk of rip currents. Despite the fair weather conditions expected at the beaches through early afternoon, it will be dangerous to venture into the waves today. In addition, the surf will remain between 2 and 3 feet, occasionally as high as 4 feet, especially this morning at all beaches. All beachgoers should remain out of the water today but still enjoy time on the beach to ensure the safety of yourself and family.

Remember that late afternoon storms will approach the beaches bringing a threat for dangerous lightning and strong winds. So please move off the beaches well ahead of any storms as lightning can pose a danger several miles in advance of any rainfall. If heading to the beach today, remain weather aware and stay out of the water! You do not want to become a rip current or lightning statistic. /JLH

Long Term (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 440am CDT Monday May 27 2024

Dry conditions expected on Tuesday as the front slides south of the area. A northerly flow will bring drier air into the area as high pressure builds southward. The frontal boundary along the coast will lift northward on Wednesday, while another trough swings into the Mississippi Valley once again. This broad upper trough will remain over the eastern CONUS through the end of the week, with weak shortwaves rounding the base of the trough each day. These shortwaves, along with the weak frontal boundary along our coast, will aid in diurnally driven convection, with isolated thunderstorms possible each afternoon. Otherwise, expect hot and humid conditions to continue for the region, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and overnight lows generally in the 60s. /13

Marine
Issued at 440am CDT Monday May 27 2024

A moderate onshore flow will continue through this morning. A cold front will move through the area this afternoon and evening, with scattered showers and thunderstorms. In the wake of the cold front on Tuesday, a light diurnal flow pattern will persist through the week, with offshore flow at night becoming onshore during the day.

NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...None.