Marine Weather Net

Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM Marine Forecast


REST OF TONIGHT

SE
WINDS
8 - 13
KNOTS

TUESDAY

TUESDAY NIGHT

N
WINDS
25 - 30
KNOTS

WEDNESDAY

NE
WINDS
18 - 23
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ650 Forecast Issued: 903 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019

GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM CST TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
Rest Of Tonight...Southeast Winds 8 To 13 Knots Becoming Northwest 25 To 30 Knots With Gusts To Around 35 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 4 Seconds. Chance Of Showers Early In The Evening, Then Rain Likely After Midnight.
Tuesday...North Winds Around 35 Knots Diminishing To 25 To 30 Knots. Gusts Up To 45 Knots. Seas 3 To 9 Feet. Rain Likely In The Morning, Then Slight Chance Of Rain In The Afternoon.
Tuesday Night...North Winds 25 To 30 Knots Becoming Northeast 20 To 25 Knots. Gusts Up To 35 Knots. Seas 3 To 7 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds.
Wednesday...Northeast Winds 18 To 23 Knots Diminishing To 8 To 13 Knots. Seas 2 To 5 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds.
Wednesday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds.
Thursday...Northeast Winds 13 To 18 Knots Becoming North. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds. Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.
Thursday Night...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 5 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 7 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers.
Friday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 4 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers.
Friday Night...North Winds 18 To 23 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.
Saturday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet.
Saturday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet.
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Synopsis For Pascagoula MS To Okaloosa Walton County Line FL Out 60 NM Including Major Area Bays And Sounds - GMZ600
903 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019

A light to moderate southeasterly flow will continue ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the northwest. Behind the front, winds will strengthen out of the west-northwest with frequent gusts to gale force Tuesday. Winds and seas will relax Wednesday through Friday as moderate easterly flow develops.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
951pm CST Monday Nov 11 2019

No significant adjustments required to forecast for the overnight hours. Did make slight update to hourly temperature curve for the late evening and very early morning hours before FROPA, but after FROPA hourly curve and expected lows seem to still be in good shape compared to the latest available model data. The cold front should be on the verge of moving into our northwestern counties by around midnight, with temperatures beginning a rapid fall and north to northwesterly winds becoming quite gusty. By around 3 am, the front will likely be along the I-65 corridor and then should be moving on off to the east of our forecast area by around 6 am. Still expecting some lingering precipitation in the wake of the front through, primarily in the form of a cold rain. But as we have previously said, a very small chance of some sleet or perhaps a brief period of freezing rain up over our northwestern forecast area (mainly Wayne and Choctaw counties). But with the high temps on Monday reaching the 70s in most areas, and with the high winds behind the front resulting in evaporation, we are still not expecting any accumulations of wintry precipitation should it occur on paved surfaces at this time, though motorists may have to watch for a few slick spots developing on elevated bridges and overpasses early Tuesday morning. A Wind Advisory will be in effect for the entire forecast area in the wake of the front, valid from 3 am to 6 pm Tuesday. The Freeze Warning also continues from 6 pm Tuesday evening through 9 am Wednesday morning. Updated NPW product for the Wind Advisory and Freeze Warning being issued now. Please see our previously issued Special Weather Statement to address the coming cold weather across the area and the potential for the brief wintry mix over our northwest zones late tonight and early Tuesday. /12

AVIATION... 00Z issuance...Ceilings will lower overnight as a cold front moves across the area with IFR/MVFR (Marginal Visual Flight Rules) ceilings expected through early Tuesday afternoon. VFR conditions return late in the period. Gusty northwest to north winds of 20 to 30 knots can be expected in the wake of the front late tonight through much of Tuesday. /13

Near Term - Now Through Tuesday night
The strong cold front we have been advertising the past several days is located from southern and eastern portions of TX to the Mid-Mississippi Valley region this afternoon. Temperatures are falling into the 20s and 30s behind the front, while warm temperatures in the lower to mid 70s prevail across our forecast area this afternoon well in advance of the front. Enjoy the warmth while it lasts.

The cold front is forecast to quickly surge southeastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening before sweeping through our forecast area late tonight into early Tuesday morning. A zone of enhanced deep layer moisture and ascent along and ahead of the approaching front will bring increasing coverage of rain across interior southeast MS and southwest AL this evening, before numerous to widespread rain coverage spreads across the rest of our forecast area late tonight into early Tuesday morning. A few forecast soundings continue to indicate potential for temperatures to fall around 32 degrees across portions of Choctaw AL and Wayne MS Counties for roughly 3-4 hours early Tuesday morning, primarily from 5-6am to about 9am before precipitation comes to an end. Shallow freezing layer near the surface and a warm nose aloft would result in a chance for a brief change over to light freezing rain, though some room for cooling in the warm nose could also support a few sleet pellets before precipitation ends. Given the preceding warmth over our region ahead of the front, light accumulation is not anticipated over paved surfaces at this time, though motorists may have to watch for a few slick spots developing on elevated bridges and overpasses early Tuesday morning. A few sleet pellets mixing with the rain also cannot be ruled out as far south as portions of Perry, Greene, Washington, and Clarke Counties before precipitation ends, but no accumulation is expected. We have opted to issue a Special Weather Statement to address the coming cold weather across the area and the potential for the brief wintry mix over our northwest zones.

The primary impact from this system will be much colder temperatures advecting into our region, along with strong and gusty northerly winds following frontal passage late tonight into Tuesday. Temperatures may briefly fall into the lower to mid 30s following frontal passage across interior southeast MS and southwest AL between 12-15Z (6-9am CST) Tuesday morning, before only improving into the upper 30s to lower 40s by Tuesday afternoon. Daytime highs will likely occur early Tuesday morning across the remainder of the region. Early morning highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s are expected along and east of the Interstate 65 corridor, before temperatures gradually fall into the lower to mid 40s during the late morning and afternoon hours. Strong and gusty northerly winds behind the front will result in wind chills in the 20s and 30s through the day Tuesday. North winds up to around 20 mph with frequent gusts around 30 mph are expected over interior areas following frontal passage late tonight into Tuesday afternoon, and a little stronger between 20-30 mph with frequent gusts of 35-40 mph near the immediate coast. We have issued a Wind Advisory for all of the region late tonight into Tuesday afternoon. Winds should begin tapering off late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.

Clearing skies, a very dry airmass, and continued cold advection will result in record to near record cold temperatures and the first freeze of the season across our forecast area Tuesday night. Lows are expected to range in the lower to mid 20s roughly along and northwest of Interstate 65, with upper 20s to lower 30s across the rest of the region. The exception could be along the barrier islands, where lows may only fall into the mid 30s. We have opted to upgrade the Freeze Watch to a Freeze Warning across the entire region Tuesday night. Inland locations could experience temperatures below 32 degrees for 14-15 Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning. /21

SHORT TERM /Wednesday Through Wednesday night/...High pressure over the Eastern Conus will bring continued below seasonal temperatures under clear skies. High temperatures Wednesday in the upper 40s well inland to mid 50s along the coast are expected. Low temperatures Wednesday night are expected to range from around 30 well inland to mid 30s along the I-10 corridor and around 40 along the coast. /16

LONG TERM /Thursday Through Monday/...An upper trough located over the Tex/Mex border moves east-northeast over the northern Gulf, bringing increasing isentropic upglide and increasing coverage of rain-showers to the forecast area Thursday into Friday. Helping to hinder the onset of rain is a very dry boundary layer in northeasterly flow in a colder airmass that has moved over land portions of the forecast area and vicinity, but am expecting this dry layer to be moistened by Thursday afternoon/evening. Best coverage of rainshowers will be along and south of the Gulf coast with stronger isentropic upglide present and a more moist boundary layer to start this portion of the forecast. The colder airmass will also help to keep temperatures at below seasonal norms through the Long Term, though they do moderate upwards Friday through the weekend as the forecast area begins to see some sun during the day and the cool northeasterly flow weakens. /16

MARINE...Light to moderate onshore flow will precede a strong cold front moving across area coastal waters after 06z tonight. Strong to very strong offshore flow will overspread area coastal waters after 09z. A Gale Watch for most area coastal waters has been upgraded to a Gale Warning beginning 09z. The strong push of colder air eases in the late afternoon along with seas subsiding, so have ended the Gale Warning at 00z Tuesday evening. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect there after until 15Z Wednesday morning as surface high pressure shifts east to over the Eastern seaboard. Direction will become northeast to easterly as it becomes light to moderate. An upper system moves east along the northern Gulf coast Thursday into Thursday night, bringing moderate to strong northeasterly flow back to area coastal waters. A Small craft Advisory may be needed Thursday through Thursday night. /16

NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...Freeze Warning from 6pm Tuesday to 9am CST Wednesday for ALZ051>060-261>266.

Wind Advisory from 3am to 6pm CST Tuesday for ALZ051>060- 261>266.

FL...Freeze Warning from 6pm Tuesday to 9am CST Wednesday for FLZ201>206.

Wind Advisory from 3am to 6pm CST Tuesday for FLZ201>206.

MS...Freeze Warning from 6pm Tuesday to 9am CST Wednesday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

Wind Advisory from 3am to 6pm CST Tuesday for MSZ067-075-076- 078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6pm Tuesday to 9am CST Wednesday for GMZ630>632-650-655-670-675.

Gale Warning from 3am to 6pm CST Tuesday for GMZ630>632-650- 655-670-675.

Small Craft Advisory from 3am Tuesday to 9am CST Wednesday for GMZ633>636.