Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Today...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. A Chance Of Thunderstorms. Showers. |
| Tonight...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Northwest After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Showers With A Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Monday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Monday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Chance Of Thunderstorms. Showers Likely, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Tuesday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Tuesday Night...Northeast Winds 20 To 25 Knots, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. A Chance Of Showers, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Wednesday...Northeast Winds 20 To 25 Knots, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning. A Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Wednesday Night...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. |
| Thursday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Thursday Night...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA 549am CDT Sunday Oct 4 2026 Issued at 317am CDT Sunday Oct 4 2026 A very moist tropical air mass remains in place this morning with widespread rain and embedded convection streaming onshore. The 00z LIX sounding observed a PWAT (Precipitable Water) of 2.58 inches, which exceeds the daily record. However, weak lapse rates have limited widespread convective coverage and lightning activity as thermodynamic profiles remain saturated and moist adiabatic through the column. This has been a challenging forecast as CAMs have struggled to resolve a mesolow, which has been downtrending in strength. As a result, forecast totals have come down slightly. Regardless, slow- moving bands of heavy rain moving onshore will continue to impact areas southeast of I-65 and remain capable of producing flash flooding. A Flood Watch remains in effect for coastal counties through midnight tonight. Additional rainfall totals of 2-5 inches are expected across much of the Watch area, with localized storm totals of 6-10 inches still possible, though this is starting to look less likely. Totals northwest of I-65 look lower overall, with many areas likely receiving less than an inch of additional rainfall, though localized 2-4 inch amounts cannot be ruled out. The greatest focus for flash flooding remains along and south of I-10 across the western Florida Panhandle. There is also a low tornado risk along the Florida Panhandle coast given modest low-level shear and sufficient low-level instability offshore for the development of mini-spinnies that may move onshore early this morning. Otherwise, no widespread severe weather is expected, though a few embedded storms could produce gusty winds. Rain should begin to exit the area by evening, with highs remaining in the mid to upper 70s away from the coast due to persistent rain and cloud cover. Minor river flooding is forecast on the Styx and Shoal Rivers due to the expected rainfall, while other rivers across southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle are expected to rise to action stage. Some residual river flooding will remain possible through midweek. For the workweek, a diffuse cold frontal zone moves into the area tonight into Monday, bringing northeasterly flow and gradually decreasing moisture and rain chances through midweek as it pushes offshore. Scattered showers and storms remain possible Monday afternoon with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) still around 2 inches. Drier air will begin to filter into inland areas Tuesday, with dry conditions expected through the remainder of the workweek. Highs will be in the 80s with seasonably cool lows as northwest flow aloft develops with a broad trough over the Northeast. Strong northeast winds over the Gulf may reach Small Craft Advisory criteria beginning Tuesday. Looking toward next weekend, ensemble guidance indicates troughing entering the central U.S. as ridging builds west into the eastern Gulf. This would send moisture back northward into the area with another potential threat for heavy rainfall. Potential tropical development will also need to be monitored, as the NHC has indicated a 20 percent chance of development over the southwest Gulf during the next 7 days. Marine Issued at 317am CDT Sunday Oct 4 2026 Outside of gusty winds with thunderstorms, overall light winds and seas of less than 3 feet can be expected through Monday. A cold front will start to push through the waters Monday night into Tuesday and winds will increase from the east and northeast to between 15 and 25 knots with the stronger winds out in the open waters. Seas will respond to these winds and increase to 5 to 7 feet creating rough conditions offshore. These small craft advisory conditions will persist through the end of the week. NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories AL...Flood Watch through this evening for ALZ261>266. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8am CDT this morning for ALZ263>266. High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for ALZ265-266. FL...Flood Watch through this evening for FLZ201>206. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8am CDT this morning for FLZ202- 204-206. High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...None. |
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