Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...Northeast Winds 8 To 13 Knots Becoming East 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Tonight...East Winds 3 To 8 Knots Becoming Northeast 8 To 13 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 8 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday...Northeast Winds 8 To 13 Knots Becoming East 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 8 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Thursday Night...Northwest Winds 8 To 13 Knots Becoming Southwest 3 To 8 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Friday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southwest 8 To 13 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Friday Night...Southwest Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Saturday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Saturday Night...Southwest Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Sunday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 1 Foot. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Sunday Night...Southwest Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Seas Around 1 Foot. Dominant Wave Period 7 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
| Synopsis For Pascagoula MS To Okaloosa Walton County Line FL Out 60 NM Including Major Area Bays And Sounds - GMZ600|
929 AM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021
A mainly light to occasionally moderate northeasterly to easterly flow is expected through Thursday. By Friday, a mainly light southerly to southwesterly flow is expected with it lasting into the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected through the period, with the exception of today where more numerous coverage will affect the offshore waters. Little change in seas is expected through the period.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mobile AL
639am CDT Wednesday August 4 2021
Near Term Update - Now Through Thursday
Currently, a mean upper level trough is analyzed over the eastern Conus. A weak surface front stalled over the northern Gulf coast, embedded in a mean surface trough over the northern Gulf Coast/northern Gulf. Guidance is advertising a surface low forming over the north-central Gulf today. From there, the broad low is either maintained over the northwestern Gulf (GFS, ECMWF, and HREF), or organizes into a more significant closed low and heads towards the western Florida Panhandle (NAM, RAP, SREF). In any solution, south to southeasterly flow returns to the northeastern Gulf coast, with some moisture pushing back into the southeastern quarter of the forecast area, southeast of I-65. With such differing solutions, am leaning towards the drier solutions, with the latest soundings from surrounding offices advertising stronger north to northeasterly flow over the Southeast currently, helping to maintain the dry push over the forecast area. This will place the best Probability of Precipitation along and south of the coast, with a bit of a northerly push over areas southeast of I-65.
With the drier airmass over the majority of the forecast area, the diurnal temperature range will see a bit of an increase from seasonal norms. Low temperatures ranging from the mid 60s northwest of the Alabama River to mid 70s close to the coast are expected tonight and Wednesday night. High temperatures will see an uptick, with around 90 to low 90s expected this afternoon, low to mid 90s expected Thursday. /16
SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Friday night/...A brief period of zonal flow aloft is expected on Thursday night before another upper level trough begins to move into the region from the central CONUS on Friday. The surface boundary that has been situated across the forecast area continues to linger over the Gulf/coast Thursday night and will maintain precipitable water values as low as 1.1 to 1.5 inches across interior locations. Moisture will be higher (1.5-1.8 inches) along the coast as these locations are in closer proximity to the surface boundary. A few showers and storms will therefore be possible overnight Thursday, mainly along the coast and Gulf waters.
South to southwest flow returns on Friday as the upper level trough moves into the region. This upper level flow in combination with the dissipating surface boundary will bring a surge of moisture into the area, causing an increase in PWAT's (Precipitable Waters) to around 1.7 to 2.2 inches. The timing of ascent with shortwave perturbations embedded within the southerly flow remain a bit uncertain, so for now kept POPs mostly between 30-40% coverage across much of the region Friday afternoon. Coverage is expected to decrease inland on Friday night with isolated to scattered showers and storms favored mainly over the coast and Gulf.
Overnight lows on Thursday and Friday will continue to range from the upper 60s to lower 70s inland with mid to upper 70s along the immediate coast. Highs during the day Thursday will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. /14
Extended Term - Saturday Through Tuesday
An upper level trough should continue to progress eastward across the Deep South Saturday but should get a push to the east of our region by Saturday night (the latest GFS is a little slower with the eastward progression of the trough). Ridging aloft may tend to build across the north central Gulf Coast region late this weekend into the early part of next week, with the EURO indicating stronger ridging aloft Monday into Tuesday. At the surface, the weak low level front/boundary that had been laying across the region for the past several days dissipates with surface ridging building into the area from the east. Deep layer moisture will be increasing during the extended term with a general southerly low level flow, and instability will be sufficient to maintain typical scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast each day. Precip should follow the normal summertime diurnal pattern, with showers and storms most widespread during the afternoon and evening hours, but isolated coverage may persist overnight near the coast and over the Gulf waters. Daytime highs should be quite warm, mainly in the lower 90s for most locations, but some upper 80s along the immediate coast and perhaps some mid 90s over interior southeast Mississippi as well as portions of southwest and south central Alabama. Higher dewpoints/afternoon humidity may result in heat index values climbing back into the 100-107 range Sunday through Tuesday. Overnight lows continue to be in the low to mid 70s over interior locations, mid to upper 70s near and along the coast. /12
MARINE...No impacts forecast except for higher winds and waves near scattered to occasionally numerous showers and thunderstorms. /13
NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.