Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...West Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Seas Around 1 Foot. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds.|
|Thursday...Southwest Winds 8 To 13 Knots Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 4 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Thursday Night...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 20 Knots Diminishing To Southwest 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 4 Seconds. Chance Of Showers.|
|Friday...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming West. Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds. Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely In The Afternoon.|
|Friday Night...Northwest Winds 13 To 18 Knots Becoming Northeast 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Saturday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming East 13 To 18 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Saturday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds.|
|Sunday...Southeast Winds 13 To 18 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds.|
|Sunday Night...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Monday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds. Chance Of Showers.|
|Monday Night...Southwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds. Chance Of Showers.|
| Synopsis For Pascagoula MS To Okaloosa Walton County Line FL Out 60 NM Including Major Area Bays And Sounds - GMZ600|
1048 PM CST Wed Jan 20 2021
A light to moderate southwest flow will persist through Friday as a cold front lifts inland. Onshore flow will increase the potential for sea fog late tonight into early tomorrow morning. The passage of another cold front will bring moderate northerly flow in its wake Friday night. Light to moderate easterly flow is then expected by Saturday night, with moderate southerly flow taking hold by Sunday night as another system approaches from the west.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
...UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL
1148pm CST Wednesday Jan 20 2021
Near Term - Now Through Friday
Upper level ridging will continue over the central Gulf, but become more flattened through Friday morning as a cutoff low makes its way over the Desert Southwest and into central Texas. Mainly zonal flow is expected aloft over the northern Gulf coast during this time; however, a couple subtle shortwaves will move along the flow beginning Thursday night. The upper cutoff low, originally over the Desert Southwest at the start of the near term, will eventually progress over the Deep South by late Friday afternoon as a shortwave as well. At the surface, a front has stalled along the northern Gulf coast this evening. In addition, high pressure still remains over the Tennessee Valley and also over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The stationary front will largely persist, progressing northward over central LA, MS, and AL Thursday morning before dissipating by late Thursday afternoon. The high pressure areas will progress east towards the Atlantic by Thursday morning as well, with the southernmost high pressure parking over central FL through the majority of the day on Friday. Meanwhile, a stout low pressure system will make its way over southeastern Canada and the Great Lakes region on Thursday, with an associated cold front moving southward over the Mississippi and Ohio valleys by Thursday afternoon. This feature will then continue its southerly path over the Tennessee Valley Thursday evening and eventually over the northern Gulf coast Friday evening.
For sensible weather, the aforementioned pattern will lead to increased chances of rain showers from the west-northwest through the day on Thursday. The bulk of the rain showers is expected to occur Thursday night, with the rain beginning to decrease by late Friday afternoon. Thunderstorms are not forecast since models indicate little to no instability over the local area through late week. There remains some model disagreement with when precipitation will begin Thursday. The Hi-Res models as well as the GFS show a later start time (Thursday afternoon), whereas the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) shows rain starting Thursday morning. Have followed the blended guidance closely, which favors an afternoon ramp up in precipitation. Thus, scattered to numerous showers will mainly affect interior southeast MS, southwest AL, and south-central AL Thursday afternoon while isolated to scattered showers are expected for areas south (near the coast). Model PWATs (Precipitable Waters) then increase to 1.5-1.7 inches Thursday night ahead of the cold front, resulting in likely to numerous rain showers for much of the local area Thursday night. With frontal passage, rain chances will then gradually decrease by late afternoon on Friday. The Weather Prediction Center has outlooked portions of far interior southwest AL and interior southeast MS in a marginal risk of excessive rain Thursday morning through Friday morning. Forecast total rainfall at this point ranges anywhere from 1-2.25 inches of rain generally for southeast MS, and southwest and south-central AL through Friday and 0.20-1 inches for coastal AL and the western FL Panhandle.
For late tonight into Thursday morning, model probabilities have hinted at the potential for patchy fog development near the coast and sea fog over the nearshore marine waters. At this time, model guidance suggests mainly patchy fog (locally dense in spots), but some guidance does show a few hours of dense fog possible around 12Z over the nearshore marine area. Dew points are currently in the lower 50s near the coast and winds are generally from the west-southwest over Mobile Bay and the Gulf waters this evening. Will continue to monitor as the latest observations come available overnight, should a short-fused marine Dense Fog Advisory become necessary.
Current temperatures are in the lower to mid 50s north of I-10 and in the mid to upper 50s south of I-10. With increased cloud cover, not expecting too much more of a decrease in temperatures overnight; thus, forecast low temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s north of I-10 and lows in the lower to mid 50s south of I-10 remains on track. Highs Thursday will generally be in the lower to upper 60s, with some areas over southeast MS, south- central AL, and the western FL Panhandle seeing highs around 70 degrees. Lows Thursday night will be warmer than tonight, with values in the mid to upper 50s. A few spots may only cool to around 60 degrees at the coast. Highs Friday will then be cooler due to cold FROPA, with temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Lastly, a LOW RISK of rip currents is anticipated through the first part of the weekend. /26
NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.