Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Southwest Winds 8 To 13 Knots Becoming North 18 To 23 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds. Scattered Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Friday...North Winds 18 To 23 Knots Becoming Northeast 8 To 13 Knots. Gusts Up To 30 Knots. Seas 2 To 5 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds. Scattered Showers In The Morning.|
|Friday Night...North Winds 8 To 13 Knots Becoming Northeast 13 To 18 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds.|
|Saturday...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Southeast 18 To 23 Knots. Gusts Up To 30 Knots. Seas 2 To 5 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds.|
|Saturday Night...Southeast Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Gusts Up To 30 Knots. Seas 3 To 6 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Sunday...South Winds 20 To 25 Knots Increasing To Around 25 Knots. Gusts Up To 35 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet Building To 7 To 10 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 8 Seconds. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Sunday Night...Southwest Winds Around 25 Knots. Seas 8 To 11 Feet Subsiding To 6 To 9 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 9 Seconds. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely.|
|Monday...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 7 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 9 Seconds.|
|Monday Night...North Winds 13 To 18 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Tuesday...Northeast Winds 13 To 18 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Chance Of Showers.|
|Tuesday Night...Northeast Winds 13 To 18 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Chance Of Showers.|
Synopsis For Pascagoula MS To Okaloosa Walton County Line FL Out 60 NM Including Major Area Bays And Sounds - GMZ600|
342 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020
Cold front sinks southward over the Gulf waters overnight and as high pressure builds over the Mid-South, north to northeast flow increases. Friday afternoon and evening brings a brief improvement in winds, waves and seas. Onshore flow begins to increase Saturday ahead of a low pressure system developing over the southern Plains. As the low begins to exit the Plains Sunday and moves up across the Lower MS River Valley, southerly flow intensifies further with gale conditions being quite possible. Seas becoming high and dangerous. In addition to this threat, confidence continues to increase for an enhanced severe weather potential Sunday into Sunday night.
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mobile AL
431pm CDT Thu April 9 2020
...CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... .NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Friday night/...Upper level map analysis shows a nearly flat flow aloft over the southeast US, south of a broad upper trough over the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a short-wave upper ridge was nosing northwest up across TX and the southern Plains with a more pronounced, large upper level storm system/cutoff low centered in the southwest US over NV/southern CA. Upper level impulse/energy was ejecting out of this system and was pivoting around the short-wave upper ridge. Satellite shows a zone of moisture and cloudiness expanding in coverage over TX with pockets of colder cloud tops/lightning also being observed over central TX. At the surface, a cold front has moved to a position from the Mid- Atlantic, draped across the southeast US then west into central TX. The front continues south tonight, moving over the northern Gulf waters. Meanwhile, upper level impulse previously mentioned continues east bringing thickening cloud cover over the central Gulf coast and increased ascent for a west to east increase in showers tonight. Better instability resides for a brief time tonight near the coast while lingering longer offshore through much of the night for the potential of thunder. A majority of the weather tonight though will become increasingly elevated on the cooler, north side of the front. A small chance of showers continues Friday morning mainly along and south of a line from Wiggins, MS to Andalusia, AL. Drier conditions expected Friday afternoon into Friday night associated with high pressure building east over the Mid-South to the lower Appalachians.
Overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s, trend cooler Friday night from 42 to 47, mostly north of the beaches. Highs Friday range from 65 to 70 over the interior to closer to 70 coastal zones. /10
Short Term - Saturday Through Sunday Night
A dry airmass will remain in place over the region Saturday morning underneath weak shortwave ridging within the zonal flow pattern aloft and also on the southwestern periphery of a surface ridge of high pressure centered over the Appalachian Mountains. Surface high pressure will continue to move eastward into the western Atlantic through Saturday afternoon, allowing for a low level return flow across our region. Deep layer moisture increases slightly over portions of southeast MS by late Saturday afternoon ahead of a shortwave trough embedded within southwest flow aloft over Texas. A few light showers may be possible by late Saturday afternoon, mainly west of a Richton to Lucedale, MS line, where we have kept 20-30% POPs. The forecast remains dry through Saturday afternoon over the remainder of the area. Highs are forecast to reach into the mid to upper 70s.
The next storm system that will have the potential to bring significant weather impacts to our region will be located over the Desert Southwest during the day Saturday. The upper level low is forecast to open into an upper level trough over the vicinity of eastern New Mexico and west Texas by Saturday night before taking on a negative tilt and ejecting northeast toward the Mississippi Valley during the day Sunday. An associated surface low pressure system will deepen over the southern High Plains Sunday and Sunday night, while a secondary surface low lifts quickly northeast from southeast portions of TX to the western TN Valley during the day Sunday. A low level jet will strengthen to around 50-60 knots ahead of these features across our region during the day Sunday. while an 90-100 kt 500 mb jet streak ejects across the MS/TN Valleys Sunday into Sunday night. Surface dewpoints around 70 to the lower 70s are forecast to lift northward across our region along an advancing warm front Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon. Our forecast area will be quite unstable within the warm sector with MLCAPE values increasing to around 1000-1500 J/KG. Deep layer ascent overspreads our region during the day Sunday. Strong low-mid level flow will favor large curved hodographs across our CWA and fast-moving supercells will easily develop in this type of environment. Concerns of a severe weather outbreak with tornadoes (possibly strong/long-tracked), damaging winds in excess of 70 mph, and large hail continue to increase across our forecast area Sunday morning into at least Sunday evening. There is still some question on the timing of the system and associated severe convection and we will continue to refine this over the next several days. Deep moisture and high precipitable water values will also favor locally heavy rainfall which could lead to localized flooding concerns. Severe chances appear to decrease following the passage of a cold front late Sunday evening or overnight Sunday night.
In addition to the severe threat, the tight MSLP gradient and strong jet dynamics will favor strong gradient winds over our region outside of storms Sunday. A Wind Advisory will likely become necessary though would not be surprised if gusts exceed 40 mph, especially near the coast. The strong onshore flow will likely bring a high rip current risk, increased surf, and possibly some minor coastal flooding concerns. /21
.EXTENDED TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...Drier conditions follow Monday and Monday night in the wake of the front. Another system could bring isolated to scattered showers Tuesday into Wednesday as a series of shortwaves embedded in the flow aloft move across the region. Otherwise, no significant changes were made to the extended forecast at this time. /21
Cold front sinks southward over the Gulf waters overnight and as high pressure builds over the Mid-South, north to northeast flow increases. Have posted small craft should exercise caution headlines for most of area bays and sounds. Latest forecast gridded winds/gusts support an expansion in small craft advisories which are now in place for southern Mobile Bay/adjacent MS Sound and the open Gulf waters starting at 3am Fridayam going thru the remainder of the morning. Friday afternoon and evening brings a brief improvement in winds, waves and seas. By Saturday, onshore flow begins to increase ahead of storm system developing over the southern Plains. As the low begins to exit the Plains Sunday and moves up across the Lower MS River Valley/Mid-South region, southerly flow intensifies further with gale conditions being quite possible. Due to the strength and length of the southerly fetch, seas build further Sunday, becoming high and dangerous. In addition to this threat, confidence continues to increase for an enhanced severe weather potential Sunday into Sunday night. All modes of severe weather impacts appear possible, being damaging straight line winds, tornadoes, and large hail. Visibility reducing heavy rainfall and frequent, potentially deadly lightning also possible in late weekend storms. /10
NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3am to 1pm CDT Friday for GMZ631-632- 650-655-670-675.