Mississippi Sound GMZ632 Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Northwest Winds 20 To 25 Knots Diminishing To 15 To 20 Knots. Gusts Up To 30 Knots. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Monday...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts To Around 25 Knots Diminishing To 8 To 13 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet.|
|Monday Night...North Winds 8 To 13 Knots Becoming Northeast. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
|Tuesday...East Winds 8 To 13 Knots Becoming Southeast. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
|Tuesday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 20 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet.|
|Wednesday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 20 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Wednesday Night...Southwest Winds 13 To 18 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. Showers Likely.|
|Thursday...North Winds 18 To 23 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. Chance Of Showers.|
|Thursday Night...North Winds 18 To 23 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. Slight Chance Of Rain.|
|Friday...North Winds 18 To 23 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. Chance Of Rain.|
|Friday Night...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. Chance Of Rain.|
| Synopsis For Pascagoula MS To Okaloosa Walton County Line FL Out 60 NM Including Major Area Bays And Sounds - GMZ600|
247 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022
A strong to very strong westerly flow will gradually begin to lower through Monday morning. Moderate northerly flow returns by Monday evening, becoming southeasterly by Tuesday. Winds turn southerly on Wednesday as another cold front approaches. Once the front passes Wednesday night, moderate to occasionally strong northerly winds return for Thursday.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mobile AL
416pm CST Sunday Jan 16 2022
Near Term - Rest Of Today Through Tonight
TE /Now Through Monday/...An upper-level low, currently located over northern Georgia, is continuing to lift away from the region. As it moves north across the Appalachians, a secondary shortwave quickly digs southeastward across the central US. By Monday morning, the shortwave attaches to the upper low and absorbs it within the larger scale trough. This longwave trough continues marching eastward and moves off the Eastern Seaboard by Monday evening. At the surface, the associated surface low is also moving northeastward. As it moves away from our region, the pressure gradient weakens, allowing for winds to relax to 5 to 10 knots by tonight. High pressure then builds over the Southern Plains and moves across the Southeast US through Monday evening.
For the local region, flow aloft has turned northwesterly in the wake of the upper low. This will allow for deep-layer dry air to push in, effectively breaking up the current cloud cover by late evening. Northwesterly flow aloft will continue on Monday as it is further reinforced by the shortwave. Therefore, expect dry conditions to persist through the remainder of the period. Temperatures tonight will drop to the low to mid 30s, with upper 30s to near 40 along the coast. Highs on Monday will be in the 50s areawide.
With regards to hazards, a Wind Advisory remains in effect until 6PM this evening for inland regions, and until midnight for coastal regions. Also, with the strong westerly winds in place, surf heigheights of 5 to 9 feet and dangerous rip currents are expected to continue through the remainder of the day. Therefore, a High Surf Advisory and a High Risk of rip currents also remains in effect through tonight. /96
Short Term - Monday Night Through Wednesday Night
The aforementioned upper level low continues to lift northeast on Monday night, allowing a dry northwesterly flow aloft to set up over the forecast area. Upper level flow then becomes more zonal to southwesterly on Tuesday and Wednesday as a shortwave digs across the Desert Southwest and South Central Plains. During this time, surface high pressure over much of the Southeast gradually slides east. Overall, the early part of this week will be dry with a gradual warming of temperatures. Highs on Monday will be the coolest, ranging from the lower 50s inland to the mid to upper 50s along the coast. By Tuesday, highs will approach the upper 50s to lower 60s due to flow aloft taking on a more zonal to southwesterly component and surface winds turn southerly.
Rain chances return by Wednesday afternoon and evening as the upper shortwave approaches the Gulf Coast. This system will bring a surface cold front through the region from northwest to southeast on Wednesday evening and early Thursday morning. Scattered to numerous showers will accompany this frontal passage. At this time, the best (although still quite limited) instability looks to be well northwest of the area Wednesday afternoon and have therefore kept thunder out of the forecast.
Temperatures on Wednesday afternoon will climb into the upper 60s to lower 70s, before falling into the mid 30s inland with lower 50s along the coast on Wednesday night. /14
.EXTENDED TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...Quite a bit of uncertainty remains in the wake of the frontal passage late Wednesday night and into Thursday morning. The operational GFS continues to be slightly more progressive with the frontal passage, while the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) has the front lingering over the forecast area later into Thursday evening. For now, have maintained a low chance for Probability of Precipitation into the day Thursday and Friday, especially along the coast. Over the weekend, guidance diverges on the progression of the upper level trough, but at the surface there are indications of a surface low moving over the northern Gulf. The position of this low continues to shift run to run, but based on the overall consensus, have kept fairly low rain chances along the coast and offshore waters during the weekend. However, will continue to monitor these trends in future updates. /14
A strong to very strong westerly flow will gradually begin to lower through Monday morning. Moderate northerly flow returns by Monday evening, becoming southeasterly by Tuesday. Winds turn southerly on Wednesday as another cold front approaches. Once the front passes Wednesday night, moderate to occasionally strong northerly winds return for Thursday. High seas will also gradually subside to 1 to 2 feet on Tuesday before building again to 3 to 4 feet on Wednesday as the front approaches. Seas will remain elevated for the remainder of the week after the front passes. A Gale Warning is currently in effect until this evening, and a Small Craft Advisory will continue for all marine areas through Monday morning. /96
NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...Wind Advisory until 6pm CST this evening for ALZ051>060-261>264.
High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.
High Surf Advisory until midnight CST tonight for ALZ265-266.
Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for ALZ265-266.
FL...Wind Advisory until 6pm CST this evening for FLZ201-203-205.
High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.
High Surf Advisory until midnight CST tonight for FLZ202-204-206.
Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...Wind Advisory until 6pm CST this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6pm this evening to noon CST Monday for GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.
Gale Warning until 6pm CST this evening for GMZ630>636-650-655- 670-675.