Mississippi Sound GMZ632 Marine Forecast
| Tonight...East Winds Around 10 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. Light Chop. A Chance Of Thunderstorms. Showers. |
| Saturday...East Winds Around 10 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet. Light Chop. Showers With A Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Saturday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. Light Chop. Showers With A Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Sunday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet In The Morning, Then 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. Showers With A Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Sunday Night...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. Showers Likely, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Monday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet In The Morning, Then 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Monday Night...Northeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms After Midnight. |
| Tuesday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet In The Morning, Then 1 Foot Or Less. A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Tuesday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet. A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms After Midnight. |
| Wednesday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet. Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Wednesday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet In The Evening, Then 1 Foot Or Less. A Moderate Chop. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 656pm CDT Fri Oct 2 2026 Issued at 656pm CDT Fri Oct 2 2026 Increased Probability of Precipitation to include scattered showers across our northern zones through mid-evening due to ongoing activity, with this convection expected to dissipate by late evening. Otherwise, the forecast remains in track. /22 Issued at 205pm CDT Fri Oct 2 2026 The high pressure over the Atlantic continues to advect in tropical moisture. Current PWATs (Precipitable Waters) are around 1.9 inches and rise to around 2.2- 2.3 inches through the day. This trend continues into the weekend thanks to the remnants of Hurricane Polo where PWATs (Precipitable Waters) further climb to around 2.5 inches based on ensemble means. This moisture is quite anomalous being well above the 90th percentile (~1.95 inches) and is even close to the daily max of 2.54 inches based on sounding climatology. With PWATs (Precipitable Waters) this high, the atmospheric column will be close to fully saturated. The significant deep layer moisture and freezing levels of 15,000+ft will support efficient warm rain processes with rainfall rates topping out at 2-3 inches/hour. Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall are expected through the weekend and into Monday before the deep moisture departs. CAMs have continued to pinpoint areas along the coast for the highest rainfall amounts. HREF 6-hour LPMMs show some bulls-eyes of around 4-6 inches along the coast this evening and especially Saturday afternoon into the evening. Right now we are forecasting precipitation totals of 4- 6 inches through Monday and some of our far northern reaches could only receive 2-3 inches. Some localized areas, especially along the coast could receive up to 7-10 inches where storms train over the same area. We have held off on a Flood Watch given antecedent conditions and higher FFG through the area, but this will continue to be monitored as the event progresses. No widespread severe weather is expected with this event, but some gusty winds and lightning are possible with any storms. The good news is that while it is very moist and rainy, temperatures are at or below normal through the weekend as the rainfall and cloud coverage keeps highs mostly in the low 80s. The plume of deep tropical moisture (2+ inch PWATs) lasts into the beginning of next week keeping the increased rain chances into at least Monday. A cold front then sweeps through the area and decreases rain chances around Tuesday and into late next week. Temperatures will decrease and the drier air will be very welcomed after this wet period. The front does come with increasing winds which will have marine winds near advisory levels, higher wave heights, and an increased rip current risk again. ..Coastal Flooding Minor coastal flooding continues to be a concern Saturday morning and potentially Sunday morning. Local tide gauges showed very close or exceeded thresholds this morning and a similar setup looks to be true for Saturday morning during the pre-dawn hours when the high tide combines with persistent onshore flow. Most areas approach or equal our 2.0 feet MHHW threshold (2 feet above normally dry ground) so we opted to issue a Coastal Flood Advisory for all coastal areas from midnight to 8AM Saturday. Expect some minor inundation for typical trouble spots like Dauphin Island and Fort Pickens and splashover on the causeway. ..Beach Forecast Hazardous beach conditions continue with all area beaches flying red flags today. The rip current risk continues to be HIGH for all beaches in southern Alabama and the northwest Florida Panhandle. The HIGH risk continues to Sunday night then drops to a MODERATE through Tuesday before increasing again around Wednesday night. Increased surf up to 3-4 feet continues into the beginning of next week and by mid week may further increase towards High Surf Advisory criteria. SS/97 Marine Issued at 205pm CDT Fri Oct 2 2026 Moderate to occasionally strong southeasterly flow continues into Sunday. Winds relax by Monday morning and then become strong and turn northerly to northeasterly behind a cold front on Tuesday. Advisory level conditions are possible Tuesday through Thursday as we get strong easterly winds.Seas increase to 3-5 feet late week into early this weekend with another bump to 5-8 feet possible in the middle of next week with the increasing winds. SS/97. NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories AL...Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 8am CDT Saturday for ALZ263>266. High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for ALZ265-266. FL...Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 8am CDT Saturday for FLZ202-204-206. High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...None. |
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