Mississippi Sound GMZ632 Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Northwest Winds 20 To 25 Knots Becoming North 18 To 23 Knots. Gusts Up To 30 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet.|
|Tuesday...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Diminishing To 3 To 8 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet.|
|Tuesday Night...North Winds 3 To 8 Knots Becoming Northeast 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
|Wednesday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots Increasing To 13 To 18 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet.|
|Wednesday Night...Southeast Winds 13 To 18 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Thursday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 20 Knots Becoming East. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. Chance Of Showers.|
|Thursday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. Chance Of Showers.|
|Friday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Friday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet.|
|Saturday...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet.|
|Saturday Night...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
| Synopsis For Pascagoula MS To Okaloosa Walton County Line FL Out 60 NM Including Major Area Bays And Sounds - GMZ600|
332 PM CST Mon Nov 30 2020
Strong offshore flow will persist across the marine area through late tonight. Winds will decrease Tuesday and Tuesday night and will gradually shift more east to southeast Wednesday into Thursday as high pressure moves east and the next cold front approaches from the west. An increasing offshore flow may return late Thursday into the weekend following the passage of the front.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mobile AL
646pm CST Monday Nov 30 2020
Sent out a fresh forecast package update to remove Wind Advisory headlines, as the Wind Advisory was allowed to expire at 5 PM. Will still be a little gusty at times (up to 15 to 20 mph), especially along the coast, this evening. Otherwise the near term forecast is in good shape. The Freeze Warning remains in effect for our entire area tonight, with freezing temperatures expected essentially all the way down to the coast (the barrier islands could remain just above freezing). /12
AVIATION... 01/00Z Issuance...VFR ceiling conditions will be prevalent tonight and Tuesday. Skies will be clear across the entire area by late tonight and through Tuesday, but a few scattered to occasionally broken mid level clouds will persist across interior portions of south central Alabama this evening, but clearing late tonight. Northwesterly winds will will decrease to around 10 knots overnight, but remain a little gusty this evening near the coast (occasionally gusting to 15 to 20 knots). Northwest to north winds continue during the day on Tuesday, but remain generally around 10 knots or so. No restrictions to surface visibility expected. /12
NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Tuesday/...Our forecast area remains located along the base of a deep upper level trough that extends southward across the Great Lakes and Mid-Mississippi/Tennessee Valley regions early this afternoon. A surface ridge of high pressure continues to build in from the west in the wake of last night's cold front passage. Low clouds continue to erode across southeast MS and far southwest AL, while broken-overcast stratocumulus decks persist over interior parts of south central Alabama. Winds are gusting near 30 mph at times over portions of the area and will let the Wind Advisory remain in effect until expiration at 5 pm.
Deep layer dry air will overspread the region tonight into Tuesday. Lingering clouds over our northeast zones should decrease into the early-mid evening hours, with generally clear skies otherwise anticipated tonight into Tuesday. Surface high pressure also gradually builds eastward across the Gulf Coast states late tonight into Tuesday. Northwesterly winds should gradually decrease tonight. Clear skies, dry air, and cold advection will be supportive of the first widespread freeze of this season and the Freeze Warning continues for all zones tonight. Lows are still forecast to range from 25-30 across locations especially along and north of Interstate 10, and in the lower 30s along the immediate coast. The only places that may stay above freezing are along the barrier islands, where winds remain elevated. Highs Tuesday remain well below normal in the lower to mid 50s. /21
SHORT TERM /Tuesday night Through Thursday night/...The short and eventually the extended terms are a rather complex pattern with several disturbances over the eastern US. The upper pattern kinda looks like Van Gogh's Starry Night, with a large upper level low over the northeastern US. To the west, two shortwaves, one over the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles and the other entering the Dakotas from Canada. The large system over the northeast (which brought the freezing temperatures during the near term) will slowly lift northeast. This will allow for shortwave ridging to develop over the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. By Thursday, the two upper troughs will be close enough to interact in a Fujiwara interaction (the two lows will spin around each other counter clockwise). This will cause the souther disturbance to eject over the southern plains Wednesday night into Thursday before splitting off and moving east from the other disturbance. As this system slowly tracks east, it will bring another cold front slowly across the central Gulf Coast. Moisture return will be modest at best but enough to squeeze out a cool rain Thursday into Thursday night before the front moves through during the second half of the period.
Temperatures throughout the period will slowly increase with the upper shortwave ridge and eventual south-southeasterly flow. Tuesday night will be cold with lows in the mid to upper 20s inland to mid 30s right along the coast. With light winds, another round of frost/hard freeze will be possible. By Wednesday and thursday, plentiful sunshine mixed with no northerly cold flow will allow for temps to slowly climb into the upper 50s and possibly low 60s on Wednesday and then mid 60s on Thursday. A LOW risk of rip currents will continue through the short term.
Extended Term - Friday Through Monday
Friday will be the only day with a chance of precipitation as the upper trough discussed during the short term will continue to slowly move eastward. The surface cold front will push through the area and offshore by saturday night. The remainder of the extended period will be dry with northwesterly flow developing over the area. This is as the result of the second shortwave that began the short term over the Dakotas. During the interaction with the first wave, it will be shoved down towards the Baja Peninsula of California where it is expected to become a large cutoff upper low. This will allow for shortwave ridging to develop over the central US allowing for a cold northwesterly flow to channel cool and dry canadian air southward. Expect the next week to remain below normal with temperatures ranging from 50 during the day to 30s at night through Monday. The next chance for any pattern change will come as the expansive upper low finally begins to move as we head into the middle of next week but models tend to struggle with large cutoff lows and any details on this will take several days to figure out. Until then cold and dry will be the name of the game. BB/03
MARINE...A strong offshore flow will persist through tonight as high pressure builds across the marine area. The Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect for all of our local bays, sounds, and Gulf waters through 6am Tuesday morning. Winds of 15-25 knots with higher gusts are expected over bays/sounds, while winds of 20- 25 knots with gusts to 30-35 knots are anticipated over the open Gulf waters. Seas 3-6 feet near shore and 5-8 feet well offshore can be expected through tonight. Northerly to northeasterly winds should gradually decrease Tuesday into Tuesday night with subsiding seas. Next marine impacts of concern look to be during the Wednesday- Thursday time frame, when east to southeast winds increase ahead of the next approaching front. An increasing offshore flow may return by next Friday behind the next frontal passage. /21
NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...Freeze Warning from 10pm this evening to 8am CST Tuesday for ALZ051>060-261>266.
FL...Freeze Warning from 10pm this evening to 8am CST Tuesday for FLZ201>206.
MS...Freeze Warning from 10pm this evening to 8am CST Tuesday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6am CST Tuesday for GMZ630>636-650- 655-670-675.