Marine Weather Net

Mississippi Sound GMZ632 Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

THURSDAY

W
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

THURSDAY NIGHT

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

FRIDAY

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ632 Forecast Issued: 242 PM CDT Wed Jul 06 2022

Tonight...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Early This Evening, Then A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Late This Evening.
Thursday...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Southwest In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Thursday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.
Friday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Friday Night...Southwest Winds Around 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.
Saturday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Saturday Night...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less, Then Around 2 Feet After Midnight. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.
Sunday...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely.
Sunday Night...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet In The Evening, Then 1 Foot Or Less. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Monday...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming Southwest In The Afternoon. Waves Around 2 Feet In The Morning, Then 1 Foot Or Less. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely.
Monday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
337pm CDT Wednesday July 6 2022

Near Term - Rest Of Today Through Tonight
TE /Now Through Thursday/...Temperatures across the local area this afternoon are in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Dew points remain in the 70s as well, so the warm and muggy conditions continue. However, heat indices are only expected to reach between the upper 90s to around 105 degrees this afternoon, which will be below Heat Advisory criteria. Furthermore, even with sufficient instability, subsidence aloft seems to be winning out and hindering convective development so far today. Current radar trends show merely some isolated showers/storms developing along the sea breeze over Coastal Alabama. Model guidance suggests that this convection will continue to spread inland through early this evening. Although, with the loss of daytime heating, much of this activity should wane by mid-evening. No showers or storms are expected overnight.

The upper ridge will persist into Thursday, but begin to be flattened somewhat as an upper shortwave moves over the Midwest. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will prevail over the northern Gulf coast. Overall, even with instability and PWATs (Precipitable Waters) around 1.8 inches (and even around 2 inches at the coast with sea breeze development), expecting a rinse and repeat of today with regards to showers and storm chances on Thursday. Isolated showers and storms will likely form over the Gulf waters and perhaps near the coast early in the morning, then convection looks to develop along the sea breeze by the afternoon and spread inland.

Lows tonight will again be warm and muggy, in the lower to mid 70s north of I-10 and in the mid to upper 70s south. With only isolated showers and storms expected on Thursday, highs will likely be slightly warmer, reaching the lower to mid 90s over inland areas and upper 80s to around 90 degrees closer to the coast. Heat index values will be higher (around 100-107 degrees), but continue to be below Heat Advisory criteria on Thursday. The rip current risk also remains LOW through at least the first part of the weekend. /26

Short Term - Thursday Night Through Saturday Night
Upper level ridging strengthens across the south-central Plains and southeastern U.S. Thursday night into Friday before gradually beginning to shift west Saturday into Saturday night. A shortwave will round the periphery of this ridge Saturday and move into the area late Saturday night into the beginning of the extended period Sunday. Expect hot and muggy conditions to persist through the period with southerly surface flow helping to keep gulf moisture rooted over the area. High temperatures climb into the lower to middle 90's for most locations each day, with perhaps some isolated upper 90's possible in spots. Overnight lows stay in the middle to upper 70's, with lower 80's along the immediate coast. Heat indices will generally remain between 100 and 107 each afternoon. Rain chances will be on a gradual increase into Saturday, with isolated to locally scattered afternoon coverage Friday becoming more scattered Saturday. Ample CAPE will be in place across the area both Friday and Saturday, generally above 3,000j/kg with DCAPE values exceeding 1,000j/kg thanks to some mid level dry air. This should help to foster some stronger downbursts in any of the deeper convective cells that can develop large cores. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) will be high as well around 2", once again presenting a low end nuisance flash flood threat with any slow moving/training storms. MM/25

.EXTENDED TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...The aforementioned shortwave completes its transit through the CWA Sunday with general upper level troughing beginning to take hold of much of the eastern CONUS. Upper level ridging attempts to hold over the southeastern U.S. to some extent as our shortwave moves west across the northern Gulf of Mexico Monday into Tuesday. With the gradual breakdown of upper level ridging we can expect to see an increase in Probability of Precipitation during the extended period with generally scattered showers and thunderstorms, perhaps locally numerous, expected. This will especially be the case on Sunday into Monday in association with the upper level shortwave moving through and is reflected in the forecast with likely Probability of Precipitation over the forecast area. Similar hazards from storms exists for the extended period as they did for the short term period with some stronger downburst winds and heavy rainfall resulting in localized nuisance flooding possible. Temperatures will be similar as well with highs generally in the upper 80's to lower 90's Sunday and Monday becoming lower to middle 90's Tuesday into Wednesday. Lows will be in the lower to middle 70's with some upper 70's along the immediate coast. Heat indices will generally remain between 100 and 107 each afternoon. MM/25

Marine
No impacts are anticipated for the marine area aside from higher winds and waves in and around isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Light to moderate west to southwesterly flow is expected to persist through the weekend. More consistent westerly flow may develop by late weekend into early next week, however. Seas will remain around 1-2 feet through Saturday, but build slightly to around 2-3 feet on Sunday. /26

NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.