Mississippi Sound GMZ632 Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots, Becoming South Early. Waves Around 2 Feet. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms Late This Morning And Early Afternoon, Then A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms Early.|
|Tonight...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming West After Midnight. Waves Around 2 Feet. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Sunday...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet.|
|Sunday Night...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Monday...Northwest Winds Around 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Monday Night...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Tuesday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Northwest In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Tuesday Night...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Wednesday...North Winds Around 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Wednesday Night...Northeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mobile AL
516am CST Sat Dec 2 2023
/issued 358am CST Sat Dec 2 2023/
..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TER
(Now through Sunday) Issued at 358am CST Sat Dec 2 2023
A messy convective evolution has been ongoing the past few hours across the region. A shortwave transiting the area has been responsible for widespread showers and a few thunderstorms continuing to progress eastward. Expect this to remain the case through the morning hours with scattered to widespread showers and storms. Surface based instability has failed to move adequately onshore, and with extensive convection ongoing offshore over the marine waters I find it hard to believe we get any appreciable SBCAPE for anything more than an isolated severe storm. With that said, MLCAPE values up to around 500j/kg exists across coastal counties of AL/FL panhandle which may contribute to a low end threat for strong wind gusts. At this point in time, with muted low level shear evident per recent KMOB VAD data showing sfc-1km SRH values below 100 to 150 m2/s2, the tornado threat appears to have diminished. Elongated mid level hodographs would continue to favor potential for some small hail in storms, particularly in any left split elevated supercells north of the surface boundary draped along the coast. Given the extensive convection ongoing over the marine waters, I don't anticipate the environment on the coast to change much through the morning hours. The severe threat will likely remain fairly limited with a strong to damaging wind gust possible across coastal counties into the afternoon hours.
For the rest of the day, expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to remain possible, with best chances shifting east of the I-65 corridor by the afternoon hours. We see renewed chances for showers and storms tonight into Sunday morning as another shortwave pushes across the area. The surface cold front starts working its way through the CWA (County Warning Area) late tonight into Sunday morning, finally ushering in drier, cooler air as we head into Sunday afternoon and evening. Expect high temperatures today to top out in the lower to middle 70's, dipping into the upper 50's inland and lower to middle 60's nearer the coast tonight. Sunday will be a bit cooler, with highs in the upper 60's to lower 70's.
The overall threat for flash flooding appears to have diminished a bit as well considering the convective evolution so far this morning. Storms have been a bit more progressive and have not had a tendency to train very much, and storms later this morning into tonight will not have as much potential to train repeatedly over the same areas. Despite this, still expect an additional inch or two of rainfall over the forecast area, particularly nearer the coast. A high risk of rip currents remains in place through Sunday afternoon. MM/25
Long Term (Monday through Friday) Issued at XXXXXX
A reinforcing, dry front slips across the region on Monday. Flow aloft briefly turns zonal through Tuesday night in the wake of the second shortwave and a surface high builds overhead. Yet another dry front in the seemingly never- ending parade of cold fronts will dive across the area late Tuesday into Wednesday before a surface ridge builds into the region through the end of the work week. We will likely remain in this dry pattern until the following Monday.
Daytime temperatures become more seasonable early next week, while somewhat cooler by mid-week (highs in the 50s) in the wake of the cold fronts. Lows will be chilly next week with the coldest temperatures occurring Wednesday night into Thursday morning with lows plunging into the 30s across much of the area (low 40s at the beaches). 07/mb
Issued at 358am CST Sat Dec 2 2023
Moderate to occasionally strong southeast to southerly flow persists today, becoming moderate for the weekend. Winds will likely remain as SCEC level offshore tonight through Saturday, which will be hazardous for small craft. Winds and seas will also be locally higher near showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will move east across the marine area late Saturday and early Sunday, with a of a moderate offshore flow becoming established Sunday night into the early part of next week. /12
NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206.