Mississippi Sound GMZ632 Marine Forecast
| Today...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. A Chance Of Thunderstorms. Showers, Mainly This Morning. |
| Tonight...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. A Chance Of Thunderstorms. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then Showers Likely After Midnight. |
| Saturday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. A Chance Of Thunderstorms. Showers Likely, Mainly In The Morning. |
| Saturday Night...Southwest Winds Around 5 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Smooth. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms After Midnight. |
| Sunday...Southwest Winds Around 5 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Smooth. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Sunday Night...Southwest Winds Around 5 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Smooth. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Monday...Northwest Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming South In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Smooth. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Monday Night...Southwest Winds Around 5 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Smooth. |
| Tuesday...North Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming Southeast In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Smooth. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Tuesday Night...East Winds Around 5 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Smooth. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 231am CDT Fri September 11 2026 ...New MESOSCALE UPDAT Marine .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 216am CDT Fri September 11 2026 - High rain chances continue through Saturday with the potential for localized flash flooding. A few strong storms capable of producing strong wind gusts will be possible. - Waterspouts are possible with any storms over the marine waters today, primarily from the pre-dawn hours through mid- morning. - High temperature are expected to increase next week with heat indices ranging from 100-107 degrees. .MESOSCALE UPDATE for Waterspouts and Potential Localized Flooding... Issued at 216am CDT Fri September 11 2026 Overall forecast philosophy remains on track with the potential for waterspouts and localized flooding across coastal counties through mid morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been developing in north-south oriented bands across the marine waters, periodically shifting onshore. The expectation is for this activity to become increasingly concentrated across coastal counties of southwest Alabama into the western Florida Panhandle over the next few hours posing the threat for flash flooding. As previously mentioned, very high PWAT (Precipitable Water) values approaching 2.3 to 2.5 inches will support very heavy rainfall with any storms. A weak surface trough remains situated across the coastal counties which should help to focus storms across those areas. Sampled forecast soundings across the coast show deep, moist profiles supporting those anomalously high PWATs. In addition to this, weak corfidi vectors less than 10 knots will promote the potential for backbuilding/training of storms along any existing boundaries. Rainfall rates in storms could approach or exceed 2 inches per hour at times, and a corridor of rainfall totals through mid morning approaching 5 or 6 inches can't be ruled out. 00z HREF LPMM values support this in addition to latest CAM guidance, with increasing confidence on a corridor of higher rainfall totals, but low confidence on the exact placement. The nature of the potential flooding is isolated enough with low confidence on placement to preclude issuing any flood watch products, but is certainly something to keep an eye on through mid morning. MM/25 Issued at 1255am CDT Fri September 11 2026 The upper ridge has been weakening across the Southeast with an advancing shortwave moving in from the west through today. At the surface, a weak low pressure and surface trough is currently just off the coast and is projected to move generally north-northeast into southern Mississippi by the morning. This morning in particular has become more interesting with the low pressure moving closer with the surface trough and the daily land breeze acting as extra convergence. Some bands of precipitation have already developed mostly over offshore waters. These could begin causing some flooding concerns over our coastal counties if they line up to train over the same areas. Ensemble 6-hour PMMs are showing some areas of enhanced rainfall of 4-6 inches along the coastal zones. Additionally, storms over coastal waters have an enhanced waterspout potential with the non-supercell tornado parameter quickly increasing near the surface trough and weak low. Deep layer moisture has returned to the area after the below normal PWATs (Precipitable Waters) earlier this week. We have quickly rebounded well above normal with values in the 2.2-2.4 inch range. The latest 00Z sounding to the west at LIX shows the entire atmospheric column close to fully saturated and a 2.35 inch PWAT (Precipitable Water) which is well above the 90th percentile based on sounding climatology. Ensembles show this deep moisture plume of 2+ inch PWATs (Precipitable Waters) persisting through at least Monday morning. These high PWATs (Precipitable Waters) and warm mid-level temperatures with a freezing level of 15,000+ feet will support very efficient warm rain processes within any convection. The area in turn has increased precipitation and localized flooding chances through the weekend. Temperatures will be near normal for this time of year in the upper 80s and low 90s. Afternoon dewpoints should stay generally in the low 70s to perhaps the upper 60s inland where the most efficient mixing occurs with mid 70s closer to the coast. This should keep the heat indices below criteria for the forecast period. Ridging builds back into the area by the end of the weekend and into the beginning of next week. We are on the southern periphery of the ridge under easterly flow before the ridge begins to retrograde to the west by the end of the week. This results in increasing temperatures back above normal in the mid 90s inland and the low 90s along the coast as well as lower precipitation chances. ..Beach Forecast The rip current risk is now low today and lasts through mid next week for all area beaches in Florida and Alabama. Outside of any storms, surf heigheights remain generally 1 to 2 feet through the end of next week. SS/97 Marine Issued at 216am CDT Fri September 11 2026 Moderate onshore flow continues today, becoming light this weekend. A diurnal flow pattern sets up Monday before a more established moderate easterly flow becomes established by mid-week. Seas will be around 2 feet today, decreasing to 1 foot for the weekend into early next week. Waterspouts are possible early each morning. MM/25. NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. |
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