Savannah, GA to Altamaha Sound, GA including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary Marine Forecast
| Tonight...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: E 3 Ft At 6 Seconds And E 1 Foot At 11 Seconds. |
| Fri...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 3 Ft At 6 Seconds. |
| Fri Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 3 Ft At 5 Seconds. |
| Sat...E Winds 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft. Wave Detail: E 2 Ft At 5 Seconds. |
| Sat Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft. Wave Detail: E 2 Ft At 4 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Sun...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft, Building To 4 To 5 Ft In The Afternoon. Wave Detail: Se 3 Ft At 6 Seconds, Becoming Se 5 Ft At 7 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Morning, Then Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Sun Night...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Subsiding To 4 To 5 Ft After Midnight. Showers. A Chance Of Tstms, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Mon...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Showers Likely. |
| Mon Night...Ne Winds 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Tue...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft. |
| Tue Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 526pm EST Thu Feb 12 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Aviation Section was updated for the 13/00z TAFs. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) An impactful system arrives late this weekend, resulting in renewed precipitation chances and perhaps a few thunderstorms. KEY MESSAGE 1: An impactful system arrives late this weekend, resulting in renewed precipitation chances and perhaps a few thunderstorms. A substantial southern stream shortwave will track into the southeast as a surface low tries to develop off the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Quite a bit uncertainty remains with this system as it depends on how quickly phasing occurs with this shortwave and the northern stream energy. This significant uncertainty is reflected in the 00Z.LREF cluster analysis where Cluster 1 contains roughly 70% of the GEPS members and about 50% of the GEFS members, emphasizing the split of solutions and the lack of a dominant scenario. The Cluster 1 analysis would be supportive of the 06Z.ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) as it has a slower onset of precipitation. While, Cluster 2 contains roughly 40% ENS members and about 20% of the GEFS members. The Cluster 2 analysis would be supportive of a drier solution as it displaces the southern stream shortwave farther south and exhibits less phasing. The 13Z.NBM leans more towards the Cluster 1 analysis and the forecast has been maintained to reflect this. As the region becomes warm-sectored ahead of an advancing cold front on Sunday, expect precipitation to begin early Sunday and persist into Monday. Regarding rainfall amounts, there continues to be a 80-90% chance of rainfall > 0.5" and a 60-70% chance of rainfall > 1" within a 24-hr period. WPC seems to agree with this sentiment, as the region has been placed in a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall. There is even a possibility of a few weak thunderstorms developing on Sunday afternoon/evening as a little bit of instability appears to be present. These thunderstorms could produce localized pockets of higher accumulations in some areas. As stated before, a lot of uncertainty remains with this system and trends will continue to monitored over the next couple days. Marine High pressure will dominate over the marine waters through Saturday. The center of high pressure is forecast to be positioned to the NW of the region through Friday, yielding in generally NE winds. The high pressure is then expected to shift eastward, positioned just off the southeastern coast. This will result in a wind shift across the local waters to the SE by Saturday evening. An area of low pressure will then approach from the west on Sunday, creating a pinched gradient across the local waters between the approaching low and the offshore high. Winds gusts could approach 25 knots on Sunday along with seas building to 6+ ft across portions of the waters, possibly necessitating Small Craft Advisories for the waters. The low is then forecast to push through Monday, possibly yielding another period of stronger wind gusts. There remains considerable uncertainty regarding the low and its track, so the confidence in this period is low. NOAA Charleston SC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories GA...None. SC...None. Marine None. |
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