Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Tonight...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 4 Seconds. Protected Waters Choppy. A Chance Of Thunderstorms. Showers. |
| Thursday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 4 Seconds. Protected Waters Choppy. A Chance Of Thunderstorms. Showers. |
| Thursday Night...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds. Protected Waters Choppy. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Friday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds. Protected Waters Choppy. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Friday Night...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds. Protected Waters Choppy. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Saturday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds. Protected Waters Choppy. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Saturday Night...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds. Protected Waters Choppy. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Sunday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds. Protected Waters Choppy. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Sunday Night...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 6 Seconds. Protected Waters Choppy. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1057am EDT Wednesday September 27 2023 ...New Issued at 1050am EDT Wednesday September 27 2023 Made minor adjustments to temps and Probability of Precipitation based on trends this morning. A stubborn stratus deck is helping to keep temperatures on the cooler side this morning and anticipate it to linger through the afternoon. As a result, most locations are forecast to struggle to get out of the 70s today. This is thanks to a brisk northeasterly breeze as a cold front meanders just offshore in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Also adjusted Probability of Precipitation down a bit for SE AL and SW GA. Rain chances remain highest for areas south of I-10, and especially along the coast from Gulf County all the way over to Dixie County. Elsewhere, some mist and/or drizzle remains possible thanks to the pesky stratus deck over the area. Near Term (Today and tonight) Issued at 302am EDT Wednesday September 27 2023 Showers and thunderstorms are being observed over the Gulf this morning, while here on land we remain tucked under a blanket of stratus. Rain chances are forecast to gradually increase throughout the day as Gulf moisture continues to surge in from the south. Current thinking is that the FL counties will have the best chance for showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder today. Drier northeasterly winds may prohibit shower growth and perhaps even rain over portions of GA and AL. The WPC has kept a portion of the forecast area in a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rain, with the best chances being around Cape San Blas, Franklin, and Wakulla Counties. Jefferson, Madison, Taylor, Dixie, and Lafayette counties. Some of these areas have already received heavy rain yesterday and may be more prone to nuisance flooding today. Outside of the rain chances, look for mainly cloudy skies to prevail and temperatures to max out in the mid 70s to near 80 across southwest GA and southeast AL, and in the upper 70s to low 80s in the FL counties. Tonight, we should be mostly precipitation free, though low clouds may linger. .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 302am EDT Wednesday September 27 2023 A weak frontal boundary is expected to remain in place across the Northeast Gulf Marine zones, and the coastal zones in the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) along and south of this boundary will primarily be around 2 inches. Fortunately, this boundary should be far enough south by Thursday and Friday, that the best rainfall chances will remain across the marine zones; however, any flood threat that does occur will be localized to only coastal communities. Probability of Precipitation on Thursday will predominantly remain around 30-40% through the I-10 corridor, and 50-60% through the extreme southern Big Bend counties. By Friday, the aforementioned boundary is expected to be even further south to where the 50-60 PoPs will mostly be across coastal SE Big Bend counties. High temperatures on Thursday and Friday will be in the low to mid 80s across the region. Lows Thursday night will predominantly will be in the mid to upper 60s. Long Term (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 302am EDT Wednesday September 27 2023 Upper level ridging is expected to build across the eastern Conus through the weekend. This upper level ridging will remain quasi- stationary through the end of the long term period. A surface high pressure system is expected to become stationary across the Northeast, which will finally push the stationary boundary currently draped across the region southward into the central Gulf and the Florida Peninsula. As this happens, drier air is expected to be advected into the region with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) dropping to 1.5 inches or less, which will lead to lower Probability of Precipitation across the region. High temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 80s across the region, with lows in the low to mid 60s. Marine Issued at 302am EDT Wednesday September 27 2023 Tropical moisture will remain in place for the next few days as a weak back-door frontal boundary sags south towards the Gulf coast this weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will lead to brief periods of strong gusty winds and sporadic wind changes, as well as increased seas. Northeast winds will strengthen towards late week as surface high pressure settles into the Northeast causing cautionary to low end advisory level conditions through the northeast Gulf waters into the weekend. These conditions look to continue through the weekend and into the early portion of the work week. Fire Weather Issued at 302am EDT Wednesday September 27 2023 Low dispersions possible across FL counties east of the Apalachicola River today. Wet weather should hamper any other fire weather concerns today. Thursday, conditions may start to dry out keeping rain and thunderstorm chances to areas south of I-10 or along I-75. Precip chances continue to dwindle Friday, until the are mainly left across the FL counties for the weekend. Hydrology Issued at 302am EDT Wednesday September 27 2023 Widespread rainfall of 2-3 inches with locally higher totals of 4-6 inches were observed across portions of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend on Tuesday. The heaviest rainfall today will predominantly remain across coastal regions, with 1-2 inches expected across coastal communities. These values sharply drop off to around a tenth to a quarter of an inch through the I-10 corridor, and they continue to drop off to around a tenth of an inch or less into SW Georgia and SE Alabama. Given that PWATs (Precipitable Waters) still remain at or near 2 inches across the region, there will be the chance for localized flash flooding, especially across those areas that saw the heaviest rainfall on Tuesday. Given the location of the heaviest rainfall on Tuesday, and the expected areas of heavy rainfall for today, there are no riverine flooding concerns at this time. NOAA Tallahassee FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. |
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