Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Today...Northeast To East Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming East To Southeast This Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 6 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. |
| Tonight...East Winds Near 10 Knots, Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 6 Seconds. Protected Waters Choppy. |
| Friday...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 4 Seconds. Protected Waters Choppy. |
| Friday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight. |
| Saturday...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 6 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Saturday Night...West Winds Around 10 Knots, Becoming Northwest After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 6 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening. |
| Sunday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming East 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 6 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. |
| Sunday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight. |
| Monday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Monday Night...Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 427am EDT Thu Mar 30 2023 Near Term (Today and tonight) Issued at 427am EDT Thu Mar 30 2023 Dry conditions will continue across the area today under mostly clear skies as an upper level ridge moves overhead. At surface, northeast flow will become easterly through the day as a surface high shifts into the western Atlantic. With minimal cloud cover today, temperatures will be warmer with high temps climbing into the low 80s across Florida and the mid 70s across southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia where the influence of the surface high will still linger. Milder overnight lows are anticipated tonight as southeast flow begins to develop. Lows will range in the upper 50s to low 60s across Florida and in the mid to upper 50s across southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 427am EDT Thu Mar 30 2023 Low-mid level flow will become southerly on Friday, aiding in moisture return at first west of the Apalachicola/Flint Rivers during the day, then east of there on Friday night. By Friday night, moisture could be just deep enough to support a few low- topped showers in confluent southerly flow. Have therefore expanded low Probability of Precipitation as far east as Tallahassee and Albany late Friday night. On Friday night and Saturday, a strong low pressure center will move east across the Great Lakes. The tail end of a trailing cold front will brush by the forecast area on Saturday afternoon and evening. In advance of the front, a moderately unstable air mass and PW values (Precipitable Water values) well in excess of 1.5 inches will support deep, moist convection, aided by modest height falls and a little mid- level cooling. Meanwhile, bulk shear of 35-45 knots should help organize storms into a line or a few clusters, particularly over our AL/GA counties where low- level convergence in advance of the front will be sharpest. Storm Prediction Center has outlooked a Marginal Risk of severe convection along and north of the I-10 corridor. The cold front will limp into the northeast Gulf on Saturday evening, with drier low-level air spreading in behind it. Thunderstorms will taper off quickly on Saturday evening. Long Term (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 427am EDT Thu Mar 30 2023 Dry weather is forecast on Sunday, though a dissipating cold front will be lurking over the northeast Gulf. By Monday, low-mid level flow will become southerly then southwesterly, as surface high pressure moves out to near Bermuda. Moisture will return and deepen, and a weak upper impulse will ripple east across the Southeast States. This should be enough to support a few thunderstorms. By Tuesday and especially Wednesday, a 500 mb high over the Yucatan will expand a sharp ridge into the northeast Gulf and North Florida. The ensuing warming aloft will add increasing amounts of inhibition and capping for any convection to overcome. There is still a small chance of showers and thunderstorms over our northern counties on Tuesday, but the building ridge on Wednesday should shut down convection, despite well above normal temperatures and dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s. Marine Issued at 427am EDT Thu Mar 30 2023 Offshore buoys are currently observing 2-3 foot seas with the mean wave direction from the NE and ENE. A high pressure center will move off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon, reaching Bermuda on Friday afternoon. In response, winds over the waters will clock around from northeast to southeast. The tail end of a cold front will enter the northeast Gulf on Saturday night, bringing a brief northerly wind surge, but then the front will wash out and dissipate on Sunday afternoon. High pressure will move from near the Outer Banks on Sunday night to near Bermuda on Monday, with winds clocking around southeasterly. Fire Weather Issued at 427am EDT Thu Mar 30 2023 Sunny skies and dry conditions are expected this afternoon. Lighter northeasterly flow will become easterly through the day. With minimal cloud cover, expect warmer temperatures. Fire weather concerns remain low this afternoon. Rain chances remain low until Saturday when our next front approaches the area. Ahead of this front, expected increased humidity and stronger southerly flow. This will likely bring high dispersions on Friday and Saturday. Hydrology Issued at 427am EDT Thu Mar 30 2023 The main concern is a large volume of water that is moving down the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River system, stemming from very heavy rain north of Columbus GA and Macon GA early this week. On the Flint, the peak of the flood wave will move past Montezuma GA late today and tonight, passing Albany this weekend with minor flooding, then eventually reaching Bainbridge during the first half of next week. In advance of the flood wave, a pre-emptive drawdown of Lake Blackshear above Albany already has the Flint running high but within its banks for now. On the Chattahoochee, the odds of flooding are going down. Walter F. George Reservoir crested below 129 feet, which is a good proxy for downriver locations near Columbia AL remaining just below minor flood. All this water ultimately finds its way to the Apalachicola River. A pre-emptive drawdown of Lake Seminole began on Tuesday afternoon, to increase capacity for all the water that will be arriving over the next week. So minor flooding is now being observed downriver at Blountstown, and minor flooding will continue well into next week. No additional river flooding is expected for the next week. The next round of thunderstorms is expected on Saturday, but flash flooding is unlikely. NOAA Tallahassee FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. |
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