Marine Weather Net

Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

NW
WINDS
25
KNOTS

MONDAY

NW
WINDS
20
KNOTS

MONDAY NIGHT

N
WINDS
15
KNOTS

TUESDAY

E
WINDS
10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ750 Forecast Issued: 257 PM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ MONDAY ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...
Tonight...Northwest Winds 25 Knots. Seas 10 To 13 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 17 Feet Subsiding To 8 To 11 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 14 Feet. Dominant Period 9 Seconds After Midnight. Protected Waters Rough. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening.
Monday...Northwest Winds 20 Knots. Seas 6 To 9 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 11 Feet Subsiding To 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet. Dominant Period 7 Seconds In The Afternoon. Protected Waters Choppy.
Monday Night...North Winds 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop.
Tuesday...East Winds 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop.
Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop.
Wednesday...Southeast Winds 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop.
Wednesday Night...South Winds 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening. Chance Of Rain Showers After Midnight.
Thursday...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Northwest 15 Knots Late In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Chance Of Rain Showers.
Thursday Night...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Chance Of Showers.
Friday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Protected Waters Choppy. Chance Of Showers.
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Synopsis for the Suwannee River to Okaloosa-Walton County Line out to 60 nm - GMZ700
257 PM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

A strong and strengthening low pressure center will continue to move from Georgia into the Carolinas this afternoon and evening, with gale-force westerlies continuing over the northeast Gulf until the low exits later this evening. Strong northwesterly breezes will continue on Monday morning, then decrease quickly on Monday night as high pressure passes directly across the waters. Southerlies will prevail on Wednesday and Thursday, as high pressure moves well off to the east and low pressure gathers over the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
700pm EST Sunday Jan 16 2022

44pm EST]... .NEAR TERM [Through Monday]... A strengthening low center east of Atlanta continues to bring gusty winds this afternoon, with recent gusts near 40 mph near Thomasville and Moultrie. Meanwhile, satellite imagery shows a large field of strato-cu extending all the way back through MS. This will keep the evening cloudy, but then large-scale subsidence will start to take hold overnight. This will lead to clearing skies on Monday morning.

Winds will not be as strong on Monday, but it will still be breezy. With highs only in the 50s, this will add a bite to the air in the form of wind chills.

Otherwise, gale-force westerlies across the Northeast Gulf will start to diminish later this evening. Dangerous high surf will continue along southwest-facing beaches through tonight, but surf will drop sufficiently by sunrise Monday morning to let the High Surf headlines expire.

For wrap-up thougheights on coastal flooding, see the Hydro section.

.SHORT TERM [Monday Night Through Tuesday Night]... Cooler, drier conditions are expected through the short term as high pressure slides eastward across the region. With subsidence in place we can expect winds to weaken and become light overnight Monday into Tuesday, leading to potential frost Tuesday morning. Expect overnight lows in the upper 20s to low 30s with daytime highs in the mid to upper 50s.

Long Term - Wednesday Through Sunday
Throughout the long term a surge of cP air moves south across the eastern half of CONUS allowing the free and unobstructed passage of several shortwaves that dig themselves into troughs. The first one of which is will move across the eastern CONUS on Wednesday. With high pressure over the Atlantic, southerly flow returns ahead of this trough contributing to an increase in moisture with PWAT (Precipitable Water) in the 1.2 to 1.5 inch range. However, instability seems to be lacking with this event, thus robust convection isn't currently anticipated. A brief dry period is expected after this trough until Saturday evening when a potential Gulf low moves across the Gulf Coast states.

This second disturbance is may follow the first one in that instability will be lacking, but moisture will be present. However, this system may also have moderate shear as a better defined low level jet appears to set up across the region. There's uncertainty with this event and it's potential impacts, be sure to check back for updates.

Expect overnight lows to generally be in the upper 20s and 30s with the exception being Thursday and Friday morning as temps warm up slight ahead of the cold front. Expect daytime highs to warm slightly over the next few days reaching the low to mid 60s by Thursday, followed by a drop into the 40s after Friday with highs struggling to reach 50 degrees through Sunday.

Marine
A strong and strengthening low pressure center will continue to move from Georgia into the Carolinas this afternoon and evening, with gale- force westerlies continuing over the northeast Gulf until the low exits later this evening. Strong northwesterly breezes will continue on Monday morning, then decrease quickly on Monday night as high pressure passes directly across the waters. Southerlies will prevail on Wednesday and Thursday, as high pressure moves well off to the east and low pressure gathers over the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Fire Weather

Winds will decrease tonight. High pressure will move across the districts on Monday, leading to low mixing heigheights and weakening transport winds. This will lead to low afternoon dispersion values. Otherwise, a cool and somewhat dry air mass will be in place through Tuesday. The next chance of rain will come on Wednesday night and Thursday.

Hydrology
Freshwater: After last nights' rainfall, conditions are expected to be relatively dry through the next seven days with WPC Quantitative Precipitation Forecast indicating up to one inch of precipitation accumulation. Mainstem rivers are currently rising and will be in action stage over the next several days, however, river are expected to remain within their banks.

Saltwater: Recently ended the Coastal Flood Warnings around Apalachee Bay. We were fortunate that surge values peaked a couple hours off high tide and Apalachicola, while surge peaked during low tide from Wakulla to Dixie Counties. This kept coastal flooding in the minor category for the early morning high tides, with no criteria met during the early-mid afternoon round of high tides. Surge values continue to drop, and the coastal flooding threat has ended.

NOAA Tallahassee FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...Wind Advisory until 1am EST /midnight CST/ Monday for Calhoun- Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin- Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-North Walton- South Walton-Washington.

High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for Coastal Bay- Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

High Surf Advisory until 6am CST Monday for South Walton.

High Surf Advisory from 10pm EST /9pm CST/ this evening to 7 am EST /6am CST/ Monday for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf.

High Surf Warning until 10pm EST /9pm CST/ this evening for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf.

GA...Wind Advisory until 1am EST Monday for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien- Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early- Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman- Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for Coffee-Dale-Geneva- Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1am EST /midnight CST/ to 7pm EST /6 pm CST/ Monday for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

Gale Warning until 1am EST /midnight CST/ Monday for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.