Marine Weather Net

Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM Marine Forecast


REST OF TONIGHT

SE
WINDS
10
KNOTS

MONDAY

E
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

MONDAY NIGHT

E
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

TUESDAY

E
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ750 Forecast Issued: 832 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Rest Of Tonight...Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots, Becoming East Late. Seas Around 3 Feet. Wave Detail: South 3 Feet At 7 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. A Slight Chance Of Showers Late This Evening And Early Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers Late.
Monday...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 4 Feet At 6 Seconds. Protected Waters Choppy. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Monday Night...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Increasing To 20 To 25 Knots With Gusts Up To 30 Knots After Midnight. Seas 4 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet, Building To 5 To 7 Feet, Occasionally To 9 Feet After Midnight. Wave Detail: Southeast 4 Feet At 6 Seconds, Becoming Southeast 6 Feet At 7 Seconds. Protected Waters Rough. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday...East Winds 20 To 25 Knots With Gusts Up To 30 Knots. Seas 5 To 8 Feet, Occasionally To 10 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 7 Feet At 7 Seconds. Protected Waters Rough. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning. A Chance Of Showers.
Tuesday Night...East Winds 20 To 25 Knots With Gusts Up To 30 Knots. Seas 5 To 8 Feet, Occasionally To 10 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 7 Feet At 7 Seconds. Protected Waters Rough. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday...East Winds 20 To 25 Knots With Gusts Up To 30 Knots. Seas 6 To 9 Feet, Occasionally To 11 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 7 Feet At 7 Seconds. Protected Waters Rough. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night...East Winds 20 To 25 Knots With Gusts Up To 30 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet, Occasionally To 9 Feet. Protected Waters Rough. A Chance Of Showers. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Thunderstorms After Midnight.
Thursday...East Winds 20 To 25 Knots, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 5 To 7 Feet, Occasionally To 9 Feet. Protected Waters Rough. A Chance Of Thunderstorms. Showers.
Thursday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet. Protected Waters Choppy. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Friday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Friday Night...Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Protected Waters A Light Chop. A Chance Of Thunderstorms. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then Showers Likely After Midnight. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1000pm EDT Sunday Jun 16 2024

...New

Issued at 944pm EDT Sunday Jun 16 2024

PoPs and temps were nudged a little to take into account current trends. A line of showers/storms currently moving across the FL Big Bend and south Georgia will continue westward over the next couple of hours. A gradual weakening is expected as the line moves into a more stable environment.

Near Term
(Through Monday) Issued at 316pm EDT Sunday Jun 16 2024

Earlier this morning, scattered showers and thunderstorms were slowly moving northwest from along the Nature and Forgotten Coasts. Cloud cover has been increasing through the day as rain and storm coverage increased. The 12z sounding this morning had PWATs (Precipitable Waters) at 1.8" and indicated enough instability for thunderstorms to develop that could produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. Probability of Precipitation today range from about 30% in Southwest-Central Georgia, to 60-80% for our Florida counties. Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to diminish this evening with slight chances for rain during the overnight hours.

Upper level high pressure will heavily influence our weather for the start of the work week with shifting our surface winds to be easterly with gusts up to around 20 mph. The easterly shift will usher in drier air, bringing humidity levels down to the low 40%s by the afternoon, limiting Probability of Precipitation to about 30% for our Florida counties, and lower percentages further inland.

Temperatures during this period will be in the mid 90s for Monday afternoon, with morning lows in the low to mid 70s.

.SHORT TERM... (Monday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 316pm EDT Sunday Jun 16 2024

We will be sandwiched between two large features during this period, the first being both upper level and surface high pressure over the east. The second being a tropical low to our southwest, in the Gulf near the Bay of Campeche. This will lead to a tightening pressure gradient over the region and bring breezy easterly winds to the region. These easterly winds, along with a drier airmass, should suppress showers and thunderstorms over southwest GA and southeast AL. Guidance still tries to show some development over the FL counties, and in particular south of I-10. This would likely be due to any seabreeze that potentially collides with the easterly winds.

Long Term
(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 316pm EDT Sunday Jun 16 2024

Dry weather should persist into Wednesday with our eyes then turning to the tropical wave in the Atlantic Basin. The NHC continues to highlight a large swath of potential development, 30%, that covers the GA and FL coasts, down to the Bahamas. It's too early to determine, what, if any, impacts will come from this outside of the increased chances for rain and thunderstorms and perhaps some heavy rain. The timing for this potential disturbance is Thursday into Friday. We get past this, the Atlantic high drifts to the south and the upper ridge will have weakened due to the tropical disturbance. More typical like summertime weather and convection is expected as flow gradually shifts to the southeast.

Marine
Issued at 316pm EDT Sunday Jun 16 2024

Winds will shift to the east this evening and then hold through at least Thursday. Look for fresh to strong easterly breezes due to tightening pressure gradients since we will be situated between strong high pressure off the U.S. Mid- Atlantic coast and a deepening tropical low over the southwest Gulf. Small craft advisory conditions are expected for much of the week ahead with near gale force gusts possible. Seas will build in response as well, especially for the waters west of Apalachicola. Easterly flow will feature the familiar rhythm of nocturnal surges and afternoon lulls.

Fire Weather
Issued at 316pm EDT Sunday Jun 16 2024

Mixing heigheights will be on the rise for the afternoons this week. Easterly flow will be increasing, starting Monday, due to the ridge of high pressure that will be to our northeast. Temperatures will be in the 90s for the daily highs. The warm temperatures and elevated transport winds around 15-20 mph will lead to high dispersions (above 80 units) each afternoon through Wednesday. Minimum RH values are above critical thresholds. Rain chances decrease through midweek; however, rain chances do return heading into the weekend.

Hydrology
Issued at 316pm EDT Sunday Jun 16 2024

Shower and thunderstorms have developed as expected this afternoon. With the TLH sounding PWAT (Precipitable Water) being at 1.83" this morning and the current Storm Prediction Center mesoanalysis page now showing about 1.5" to 2.1" over the region, the atmosphere has moistened quite nicely. The driest air is over southwest GA, where storms have yet to really from. The current formation of storms are along and southwest of the line from about Coffee County, AL to Early County, GA, and then dips all the way into the FL Big Bend. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) are highest here and if we have training or slow moving storms, there is a risk for intense rainfall rates within the core of heavier thunderstorms which could lead to short-lived runoff issues. However, no widespread or significant flooding is expected.

Rainfall, if any, from Monday through Wednesday will be hydrologically insignificant. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase from Thursday through Saturday, once again posing the risk of short-lived runoff issues stemming from intense rainfall rates beneath the core of heavier thunderstorms. Riverine flooding is not expected.

NOAA Tallahassee FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115.

GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.