Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield, TX 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Shifting North After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Patchy Fog. Chance Of Rain And Patchy Drizzle.|
|Thursday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming 15 To 25 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 6 To 9 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 10 Feet. Patchy Fog Through The Day. Chance Of Rain In The Morning. Areas Of Drizzle Through The Day. Rain Likely In The Afternoon.|
|Thursday Night...North Winds 25 To 30 Knots Diminishing To 20 To 25 Knots After Midnight. Seas 9 To 12 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 14 Feet. Patchy Fog. Chance Of Rain And Patchy Drizzle.|
|Friday...North Winds 20 To 25 Knots Diminishing To 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 8 To 12 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 14 Feet. Slight Chance Of Rain Showers Through The Day.|
|Friday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Seas 6 To 9 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 10 Feet.|
|Saturday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet.|
|Saturday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet.|
|Sunday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet.|
|Sunday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet.|
|Monday...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Shifting North In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 7 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Monday Night...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet.|
Synopsis for Baffin Bay to Rio Grande out 60 nm: GMZ100|
401 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2020
The cold front has advanced across much of the coastal waters earlier today and has stalled over the offshore waters leaving light to moderate northeast winds in its wake. Marine conditions will deteriorate Thursday into Thursday night as strong high pressure builds southward across the region and brings a stronger surge of northerly winds. Wind gusts to near gale force will be likely late Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. A Gale Watch is in effect for the offshore waters for Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Hazardous marine conditions will linger through Friday night with gradually improving conditons expected through the weekend.
Area Forecast Discussion|
...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX
556pm CST Wednesday Feb 19 2020
Short Term - Now through Thursday Night
Satellite and radar images indicate some light rain moving across the coastal sections this afternoon. With the cold front stationary across the northwest Gulf of Mexico...will likely see showers continue to develop offshore the lower Texas coast tonight. Further inland...some observation stations indicate mist is being reported across portions of the northern portions of the CWA this afternoon. Best chances for measurable precipitation remain along the lower Texas coast the rest of the afternoon into this evening. MSAS surface analysis indicates a sharp temperature gradient across the lower Texas coast this afternoon with cooler temperatures across the upper Rio Grande valley and northwest ranchlands.
Will likely see overrunning conditions continue across deep south Texas tonight as warm and moist air aloft continues to moves across the shallow cooler air at the surface. Expect light rain/drizzle and mist to develop later tonight into early Thurs morning as a result. The shallow Arctic air across the northern plains this afternoon will make its way southward into the state Thursday and this will provide stronger cold air advection across the Rio Grande Valley Thursday into Thurs night as a result. Temperatures will fall into the 50s Thurs morning and hold steady during the day or fall as the shallow colder air moves into the region. Rain chances are expected to increase Thursday but will likely see only light rainfall amounts as mostly areas of drizzle and mist with light rain develop as the second surge of colder air arrives. Rain chances should diminish from north to south Thurs night even as low to mid level moisture remains high across the area. Will continue to lean towards the adjusted NAM MOS guidance for temperatures tonight through Thurs night as the NAM continues to handle the shallow nature of the Arctic airmass better than most of the global models including the GFS and ECMWF.
Long Term - Friday through Wednesday
A strong reinforcing cold air mass Thursday will keep weather rainy, cloudy, and cool for the beginning of the long term. However, conditions will begin to improve late Friday as high pressure slides east and mid level ridging builds overhead. Highs in the 50s on Friday and lows in the 40s Friday night will turn to 60s on Saturday and 70s to 80s on Saturday. Lows will also rebound into the 50s and 60s. A weak front will arrive on Monday, with reinforcing Plains colder air on Tuesday. This will keep temps down closer to normal, with limited rainfall.
MARINE: Now through Thursday Night...Seas were near 4 feet with north to northeast winds near 14 knots at buoy020 early this afternoon. The cold front that moved offshore the lower Texas coast this morning has become stationary across the northwest Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. A weak area of low pressure is expected to develop across the western Gulf along that frontal boundary tonight so winds across the coastal waters will be complex tonight. Expect light to moderate north winds across the Laguna Madre and nearshore waters with light northeast to east winds across the far offshore waters tonight as a result. The weak pressure gradient across the western Gulf will strengthen Thursday as a stronger surge of shallow cold air will move into the northwest Gulf Thurs morning with very strong north to northeast winds developing across the offshore waters Thurs afternoon. Gusts to near gale force will likely develop late Thurs afternoon into Thurs evening. Will continue Gale Watch for the offshore waters Thurs afternoon through Fri morning for now and let the next shift or overnight shift to decide when to upgrade to a Gale Warning. Will go ahead and issue a Small craft advisory for the Laguna Madre and offshore waters Thurs morning until the Gale Watch/Warning goes into effect Thurs afternoon. Very strong north to northwest winds will continue across the offshore waters Thurs night with gusts to gale force likely as the pressure gradient remains very strong across the western Gulf. Thanks to WFO CRP for the coordination on the marine hazards.
Friday through Monday night...Rough conditions will improve Friday through the weekend. Small craft advisory conditions will persist on Friday, and will continue on the Gulf due to seas through Friday night. Light to moderate southeast winds and low to moderate seas will prevail Saturday through Sunday night, with a weak front shifting winds to north on Monday.
NOAA Brownsville TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9am Thursday to 6am CST Friday for GMZ130-132-135.
Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning for GMZ150-155-170-175.
Small Craft Advisory from 9am to 3pm CST Thursday for GMZ150- 155-170-175.