Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield, TX 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...West Winds Around 5 Knots Becoming Northeast In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet Subsiding To 2 Feet Or Less In The Afternoon.|
|Tonight...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Shifting South After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Feet.|
|Monday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Feet.|
|Monday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Tuesday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Southeast 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Northeast 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely.|
|Wednesday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 7 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday Night...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 7 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Thursday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet.|
|Thursday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming East 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Feet.|
| Synopsis for Baffin Bay to Rio Grande out 60 nm: GMZ100|
338 AM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021
Weak high pressure located in the Gulf of Mexico will continue to provide light and variable winds and low seas through the rest of the weekend. Low pressure will develop over the Central Plains early next week, which will act to strengthen the pressure gradient across the lower Texas coastal waters. This will lead to increasing winds and seas through the middle portion of next week. Showers and thunderstorms will develop across the coastal waters Tuesday and increase in coverage Tuesday night into Wednesday as a weak cold front moves offshore the lower Texas coast Wednesday morning.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX
612am CDT Sunday September 19 2021
/issued 328am CDT Sunday September 19 2021/ Short Term - Today Through Monday
500mb low/shortwave trough across east Texas and Louisiana will continue to provide subsidence across southwest Texas with northwest winds aloft. Low to mid level moisture across deep south Texas will diminish tonight into Monday. Rain chances are not expected through the short term forecast. Temperatures will continue to be hot this afternoon and Monday afternoon with relatively dry air. Heat index values will continue to be elevated across the upper portions of the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon and Monday afternoon.
Long Term - Monday Night through Saturday
A strong 500mb trough will swing eastward over the High Plains and into the Great Lakes region Tuesday and Wednesday. The associated cold front will push into central Texas Tuesday morning and into deep south Texas Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The GFS remains slightly slower and weaker with the frontal passage, while the ECMWF/NAM indicate a stronger and faster cold front. Will continue to lean towards a model blend with the FROPA across the CWA late Tuesday Night/early Wednesday morning. Rain chances increase Tuesday night and Wednesday morning as moisture pools along and ahead of the front. Rain chances diminish late Wednesday as drier air filters into the region. Temperatures will remain warm, even slightly above normal, to start the period. In wake of the front, temperatures will cool down to below normal for Wednesday and gradually warm through the weekend.
oday through Monday): Seas were near 1 foot with south to southeast winds near 6 knots at buoy020 at 2:10 am Sunday. Winds will be light and variable across the coastal waters today with weak high pressure across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient will increase across the lower Texas coast tonight as low pressure develops on the lee side of the Rockies. Light to moderate south winds will develop across the western Gulf of Mexico tonight and continue into Monday.
Monday Night through Thursday Night: Mostly favorable conditions are expected through much of the period with a weak to moderate gradient in place. Light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas will prevail along the lower Texas coast through Thursday night. A cold front is expected to move into the lower Texas coastal waters Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. In the wake of the front, winds are expected to turn northerly and increase to or near exercise caution levels Wednesday into Wednesday night. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across the coastal waters Tuesday through Wednesday and may lead to locally higher winds and seas.
NOAA Brownsville TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories