Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield, TX 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 7 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Through The Day.|
|Tonight...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming South 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Feet.|
|Thursday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet.|
|Thursday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet.|
|Friday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Southeast 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 7 Feet.|
|Friday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Saturday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Saturday Night...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Northwest 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Sunday...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet. Chance Of Showers.|
|Sunday Night...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots Increasing To 20 To 25 Knots After Midnight. Seas 6 To 8 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 9 Feet.|
| Synopsis for Baffin Bay to Rio Grande out 60 nm: GMZ100|
944 AM CST Wed Nov 25 2020
Variable direction moderate winds will prevail today as a weak front pushes offshore. Wave heights will be moderate. Moderate southeast winds and moderate seas will return Thursday through Saturday ahead of a stonger cold front expected late Saturday. Strong northwest winds and elevated wave heights will develop behind the front Saturday night through Sunday.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
303pm CST Wednesday Nov 25 2020
Short Term - Now through Thursday Night
A weak front is analyzed extending west to east across the CWA this afternoon. It will continue to make slow progress south through this evening, but even if/when it does make it through it will not persist in the area very long. Southeast winds are forecast to return Thursday afternoon. In the mean time cloudiness will increase over the lower Rio Grande Valley tonight. Moisture will remain in place over the lower RGV, but there is not a strong signal for fog tonight, rather, a better signal for patchy fog appears tomorrow night when there is a return flow. It will be a bit cooler tonight, upper 50s across the Ranchlands to the upper 60s for the lower RGV. High temperatures for tomorrow, Thanksgiving, will be in the 80 to 85 degree range under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures will warm a bit Thursday night compared to tonight with return flow, and will be 68 to 73 degrees north to south, respectively. Rain chances in the short term will be scant over land areas, but a shower here and there over the short term cannot be ruled out. Upper flow will be zonal and a few upper clouds will continue across the area from west to east.
Long Term - Friday through Wednesday
Broad zonal mid-level flow and southerly surface flow will maintain above-normal temperatures and dry conditions across Deep South Texas on Friday. Big changes will occur as we head into the weekend with a trough that will move across the Northern Plains and into the Great Lakes. This will bring a cold front into South Texas on Saturday with possible weak coastal troughing along the lower Texas coast. This will provide our next reasonable shot of precipitation with models going 50 to 60% on Saturday and Saturday night with the best chances lingering along and east of Interstate 69 E. With models being in fair agreement on timing, temperatures will be a bit tricky with northerly flow through the day across the ranchlands and southerly flow persisting across the Rio Grande Valley into the mid morning hours. Unsurprisingly, the NAM is the faster solution, which could make a big difference in temperatures, so there is plenty of room for some adjustments in the next day or two.
By Sunday, a much deeper, secondary mid-level low will traverse the state of Texas, bringing an even stronger push of cooler air for the following few days across our region. True, fall-like air will arrive with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s Monday through Wednesday. The coolest morning should be Tuesday, where much of the northern ranchlands will fall into the upper 30s as a 1028mb high settles in right overhead. Winds should finally diminish by this point, keeping wind chills above any threshold for advisories. With the cooler temperatures, much drier air will have filtered in as well, keeping rain chances near zero through Wednesday. Moisture looks to return at the end of the long term with southerly flow returning, so slight rain chances remain in the forecast.
Marine - Now through Thursday night
Variable direction moderate winds will prevail today as a weak front pushes offshore. Wave heigheights will be moderate. Moderate southeast winds and moderate seas will return on Thursday as the front lifts north.
Friday through Wednesday: Seas will gradually improve on Friday before the next strong cold front moves through on Saturday. Strong north winds and increasing seas are likely through early next week. Small Craft Advisories will be needed at times, especially Sunday through Tuesday. Models show a possible concern for Gale-force wind gusts, but confidence is too low at this point. Conditions will start to improve on Wednesday as high pressure builds overhead and the gradient relaxes.
NOAA Brownsville TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories