Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield, TX 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...Northeast Winds Around 20 Knots. Seas 8 To 9 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 10 Feet.|
|Monday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 7 To 9 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 10 Feet.|
|Monday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet.|
|Tuesday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 7 Feet.|
|Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds Around 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Wednesday...Southeast Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 7 To 9 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 10 Feet. Showers Likely.|
|Wednesday Night...South Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 7 To 9 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 10 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 6 To 8 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 9 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 7 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Friday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 6 To 8 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 9 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Friday Night...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 7 To 9 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 10 Feet.|
Synopsis for Baffin Bay to Rio Grande out 60 nm: GMZ100|
931 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2020
Expansive high pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico to maintain moderate wind and hazardous seas across the Lower Texas coast through Monday. Onshore winds strengthens Tuesday night and Wednesday as a series of low pressure troughs move across the Southern Plains/North Texas with another round of small craft advisories possible. Next Cold front sometime next Thursday with still yet another period of hazardous marine conditions for all or portions of the Lower Texas coastal waters.
Area Forecast Discussion|
...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1127pm CST Sunday Jan 19 2020
AVIATION...Some lower clouds linger just over KBRO producing MVFR cigs. This lower deck may move off to the south around midnight but may linger longer. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected elsewhere with drier conditions overspreading the region as high pressure builds from the north. Winds continue to diminishing with strongest winds along and just east of the coast line where wind gusts of 20-25 knots are expected this evening.
Updated for latest marine discussion below.
MARINE...Winds continue to diminish but seas remain elevated with higher winds east of the coastal waters. Laguna Madre to drop below exercise caution levels by 10 pm with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) on the Gulf persisting mainly for higher seas/swells.
Short Term - Tonight through Monday Night
500 mb ridging will build steadily eastward throughout the short term period while the surface ridging also shifts eastwards. This will allow for temps to moderate steadily as the low level wind flow becomes more E-NE throughout tomorrow night. Some glimpses of clear skies may occur briefly throughout the short term period as some drier air filters into the region. However, believe that generally partly to mostly cloudy skies will prevail generally as the low level flow maintains some moisture flow in off of the Gulf of Mex.
Pop and temp guidance in the short term from the latest NAM/GFS and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) is in pretty close agreement. So will go close to a model blend for max and min temps through Monday Night. Moisture levels will remain very shallow through Monday Night. Will go with near zero probability of precipitation as significant sources of lift over the region will remain absent through Monday Night.
Long Term - Tuesday through Sunday
On Tuesday a gradual warming trend is expected to begin as heights/thicknesses begin to increase and southerly return flow takes shape across the region. At that time an H5 shortwave trough will be moving over the Four Corners region. This trough will help push a surface cold front southward toward the area. Unfortunately, globals are still not in agreement with the final outcome.
Both GFS and ECM have a Quantitative Precipitation Forecast signal across the area midweek ahead of the aforementioned frontal boundary. However, beyond late Wednesday and Thursday things diverge. The ECM is more progressive and brings the surface front through the region quicker than the GFS. ECM pushes the surface front southward and cuts off rainfall potential late Thursday and early Friday. The GFS is no where near as quick. In fact, the front stalls just to our north and keeps a Quantitative Precipitation Forecast signal over the region off and on until a 2nd impulse across the high plains of Kansas is able to slide southward, grab the surface front, and push it through the region nearly 24 hours after ECM's frontal passage. Timing and strength of the front late in the week are leading to lower confidence beyond Wednesday. Temperatures, rainfall, and even surface winds could be off by around 24 hours. Decided to not change much from prior package, only increase temperatures just a bit early on in the long term.
Marine - Tonight through Monday night
Buoy data and surface obs from along the lower TX coastline indicate that solid SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions prevail across both the Bay and Gulf waters this afternoon. The PGF will weaken enough across the Bay waters to allow the winds/seas to improve there by early this evening. However, the strong PGF across the Gulf waters will be a bit more stubborn and will likely persist throughout the overnight into Monday. This will likely keep the winds and/or seas in SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels across the Gulf throughout the overnight possibly persisting into Mon.
(Tuesday through Sunday): Marine conditions will start off in the moderate category as high pressure at the surface will reside across the region. As this high pressure slides east, marine conditions will deteriorate again late Tuesday and into Wednesday. Winds and seas will likely exceed Small Craft thresholds as the low level flow increases ahead of the next cold frontal boundary by the weekend. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) may be needed pre/post front, which suggest much of the period will likely see adverse conditions. Improvement is expected gradually during the day Saturday.
NOAA Brownsville TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9pm CST Monday for GMZ150-155-170- 175.