Marine Weather Net

Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield, TX 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

SE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

THURSDAY

SE
WINDS
15
KNOTS

THURSDAY NIGHT

SE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

FRIDAY

SE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ175 Forecast Issued: 317 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
Tonight...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 5 Feet At 7 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers Early This Evening.
Thursday...Southeast Winds Around 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 5 Feet At 6 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Early In The Morning.
Thursday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 5 Feet At 6 Seconds.
Friday...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet, Occasionally To 9 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 6 Feet At 7 Seconds.
Friday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 6 Feet At 7 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Late Evening And Overnight.
Saturday...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet, Occasionally To 9 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 6 Feet At 7 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then A Slight Chance Of Showers Early In The Afternoon.
Saturday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet.
Sunday...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet.
Sunday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet, Occasionally To 9 Feet.
Monday...Southeast Winds Around 20 Knots, Diminishing To Around 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 5 To 7 Feet, Occasionally To 9 Feet.
Monday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 6 To 8 Feet, Occasionally To 10 Feet. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
217pm CDT Wednesday May 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TER
Marine
.SHORT TERM... (This Afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 217pm CDT Wednesday May 29 2024

A generally pleasant afternoon is shaping up across Deep South Texas in wake of last night's showers and thunderstorms. Most areas are observing temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s, with dew points running around 3-10 degrees lower than the past few days. While still mildly warm with heat indices in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees, it's not quite the intense heat we've had the last week or so. In addition to the lower temperatures, last night's convection also scoured out the haze aloft, allowing for fair to moderate air quality today.

This will be short lived, however, as winds gradually return to the southeast and allow for a steady increase in humidity once again. Low clouds will develop late this evening from east to west as low level flow transports Gulf moisture overhead. This will also result in the return of mild low temperatures, ranging from the mid 70s across the Northern Ranchlands to around or just below 80 degrees closer to the coast. There are low rain chances (20% or less) mainly across the Northern Ranchlands tonight. Overall, not expecting much in terms of coverage, but an isolated shower/storm cannot be ruled out.

Thursday will be another seasonably warm and breezy day as Deep South Texas remains along the northeastern periphery of the mid/upper level ridge over Mexico. Highs will range from the mid to upper 90s for most of the region, with a few areas reaching 100 degrees across the Upper Rio Grande Valley and Rio Grande Plains. Heat indices will be slightly higher tomorrow afternoon, with a few areas reaching 111 degrees. A Heat Advisory may be needed, but heat indices will likely remain just below criteria. South to southeast winds around 10 to 15 MPH with gusts around 20-25 MPH are expected by mid morning to early afternoon, with the highest winds/wind gusts along the immediate coast. Have maintained a rain-free forecast for Thursday and Thursday night, but we'll have to keep an eye on the influence of embedded disturbances within northwesterly flow aloft which could result in thunderstorms developing to our north and west. Otherwise, another mild and cloud night is expected tomorrow night with lows ranging from the upper 70s to low 80s.

Long Term
(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 217pm CDT Wednesday May 29 2024

Key Messages:

*Above normal high and low temperatures

*Best chance for rain on Saturday

The above normal temperature will continue through the long term forecast period. The mid-level ridge looks to continue to dominate the weather patterns for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. As such the high temperatures are going to be in the range of upper 90s along the coast and the barrier island to the triple digits for the rest of the region. With surface winds staying out of the southeast for the long term forecast period, this will transport more humid hot air into the area. As such, the heat indices for the long term forecast period are expected to be in the range of 105 to 114. However, the need for Heat Advisories seems to have trended down just a bit with this latest model analysis. The higher heat indices do not seem to last long enough to warrant a Heat Advisory for Friday through Tuesday at this point. However, an SPS for the high heat indices will still be needed. While the experimental HeatRisk tool does show plenty of major heat risk for those days, there are only a smaller region of extreme on those days. However, by Tuesday, the HeatRisk tool has a large area of extreme. Currently, Wednesday, seems to have the largest chance for needing a Heat Advisory. Further forecast shifts will need to continue to monitor this.

Finally, the rain chances still look to be very low for most of the long term forecast period. As the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere are still pretty dry. However, by Saturday, the middle levels of the atmosphere will start to become a bit more moist, and a shortwave could help some showers and thunderstorms fire up along the Sierra Madre and move into the region. A tightening pressure is expected for the weekend and Monday that will enhance the winds in the region, but seems to be not as strong as before to require a Wind Advisory.

Marine
Issued at 217pm CDT Wednesday May 29 2024

Tonight through Thursday night...Generally favorable marine conditions will prevail tonight. Increasing winds in response to an enhanced pressure gradient will result in Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions along the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters Thursday afternoon and evening. Low rain chances exist tomorrow.

Friday through next Wednesday...Moderate southeast winds and moderate seas thanks to a locally enhanced pressure gradient will generate adverse conditions that will mostly likely require Small Craft Exercise Caution through next Wednesday. A low-end Small Craft Advisory cannot be ruled out either.

NOAA Brownsville TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...None. GM...None.