Marine Weather Net

Laguna Madre from Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay Marine Forecast


TODAY

S
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

SE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

MONDAY

NE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

MONDAY NIGHT

SE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ135 Forecast Issued: 325 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2022

Today...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Southeast Late This Afternoon. A Moderate Chop On The Bay.
Tonight...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming North After Midnight, Then Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots Early In The Morning. A Light Chop On The Bay Becoming A Moderate Chop On The Bay Early In The Morning. A Slight Chance Of Rain After Midnight. Widespread Dense Fog After Midnight With Visibility 1 Nm Or Less.
Monday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming East In The Afternoon. A Light Chop On The Bay. Widespread Dense Fog Early In The Morning With Visibility 1 Nm Or Less.
Monday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming South After Midnight. A Moderate Chop On The Bay.
Tuesday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Choppy Bay Waters.
Tuesday Night...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots Decreasing To 5 To 10 Knots. Choppy Bay Waters Becoming A Light Chop On The Bay.
Wednesday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming North 20 To 25 Knots In The Afternoon. Choppy Bay Waters Becoming Rough Bay Waters In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.
Wednesday Night...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Choppy Bay Waters.
Thursday...Northeast Winds Around 15 Knots. A Moderate Chop On The Bay. A Chance Of Rain And Drizzle.
Thursday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming East After Midnight. A Moderate Chop On The Bay. A Chance Of Rain And Drizzle In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
301am CST Sunday Nov 27 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TER
Marine
.SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 250am CST Sunday Nov 27 2022

A closed 500 mb low and its associated cold front are farther east, leaving the BRO CWFA in the catbird seat for today. Dry weather with limited cloud cover and well above normal daytime high temperatures will be a welcome respite from the recent pattern of cold, cloudy, and rainy weather. Tonight, the situation becomes a little more dicey for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, as model guidance suggests widespread dense fog. Have included this visibility restriction in the official forthcoming forecast, and the potential for a Dense Fog Advisory will need to be monitored by successive shifts. For Monday, increased cloud cover, and the possibility for isolated convection west of the Interstate 69E corridor, returns to the forecast with weak low pressure and inverted surface troughiness briefly forming along the Lower Texas Coast. The only saving grace to the return of this dreariness will be continued well above normal daytime high temperatures.

Long Term
(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 250am CST Sunday Nov 27 2022

Above normal temperatures continue to start the period as temperature surge into the 80s Tuesday afternoon. A cold front Wednesday morning will bring a few showers, maybe a thunderstorm, and cooler weather later Wednesday into Thursday. High pressure then builds overhead to end the period as temperature steadily warm back into the upper 70s to lower 80s by next Saturday.

An H5 trough moving into the middle of the country will be the main feature to start the period. As it trudges east, a surface low and associated cold front will develop in Kansas Monday night before pushing south during the day Tuesday into Tuesday night. Meanwhile, out ahead of the front, we'll be on the warmer side thanks to a strong south wind and sunshine. Temperatures will push well into the 80s as winds gust between 30 to 40 mph along the I-69E corridor. Winds will be elevated due to a 30 to 40 knot jet at 925mb Tuesday morning before it heads east into the Gulf of Mexico, allowing winds to calm some Tuesday night.

The cold front is expected to arrive Wednesday morning and will attempt to bring a few showers and thunderstorms along with it. Models have ramped up rain chances for Wednesday, so have increased POPs as a result. Ahead of the rain, temperatures are expected to climb into the middle 70s, which shouldn't be difficult since most locations will be in the upper 60s to near 70 to start the day. Temperatures are forecast to drop behind the front Wednesday afternoon, but there remains some uncertainty as to how quickly we cool. Therefore, have ran with the NBM for temperatures for now.

As a 1030+mb high settles over the Mid-South, a coastal trough will attempt to form off the Lower Texas Coast/Northeastern Mexico. This will enhance the north to northeasterly winds at the surface as winds at 850mb come out of the south, or overrun the cooler air at the surface. It should also be noted that a relative humidity (RH) cross section across the County Warning Area (CWA) shows a nearly saturated layer between the surface and 800-750mb, which means cloudy and cool temperatures are expected Thursday. Followed the previous forecast's call for drizzle and light showers for Thursday and have trended things a little cooler.

A stout subtropical ridge will be migrating from Florida to Deep South Texas Wednesday through Friday with it behind overhead by next week. That will put a lid on rain chances and cause temperatures to steadily warm back into the 70s to near 80 by the end of the period under a fair amount of sunshine Friday and Saturday.

Marine
Issued at 250am CST Sunday Nov 27 2022

Now through Monday... Buoy 42020 reported south-southwest winds around 19 knots gusting to around 23 knots with seas slightly under 2.5 feet with a period of 4 seconds at 150 CST/750 UTC. Brief Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions may exist along the Lower Texas Coast this morning due to an enhanced surface pressure gradient. Afterwards, lighter winds and lower seas will develop and persist for the remainder of the period under the influence of more dominant high pressure.

Monday night through Saturday... A tightening pressure gradient Monday night into Tuesday will mean adverse marine conditions return to the Lower Texas Coast. Small Craft Advisories are likely as early as Monday night through at Tuesday evening. Winds and seas will have a chance to calm some Tuesday night ahead of an incoming cold front that will bring a few showers and thunderstorms, strong, gusty winds, and high to very high seas. Gale conditions are possible behind the front late Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon with Small Craft Advisories possible through at least Thursday afternoon. Conditions gradually improve near the end of the period.

NOAA Brownsville TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...None. GM...None.