Laguna Madre from Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming South 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. A Light Chop On The Bay Building To A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Tonight...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Northwest 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. A Light Chop On The Bay Building To A Moderate Chop After Midnight. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely.|
|Sunday...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Moderate Chop On The Bay. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Sunday Night...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Choppy On The Bay.|
|Monday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Choppy On The Bay.|
|Monday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. A Moderate Chop On The Bay Subsiding To A Light Chop After Midnight.|
|Tuesday...North Winds Around 5 Knots Becoming Southeast In The Afternoon. Smooth On The Bay Building To A Light Chop In The Afternoon.|
|Tuesday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. A Light Chop On The Bay.|
|Wednesday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Northeast 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. A Light Chop On The Bay Building To A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon. Chance Of Showers.|
|Wednesday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Moderate Chop On The Bay. Chance Of Showers.|
| Synopsis for Baffin Bay to Rio Grande out 60 nm: GMZ100|
921 AM CST Sat Nov 28 2020
Adverse marine conditions are expected along the Lower Texas Coast through much of the forecast period due to the passage of a couple of cold fronts. Small Craft Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory are likely to be needed.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1145am CST Sat Nov 28 2020
AVIATION...Unsettled weather conditions with veering winds will occur during the TAF period as a cold front moves from west to east across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.
Short Term - Now through Sunday
A cold front is expected to pass from west to east through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will occur today and tonight in association with the passage of the front, with the precipitation confined to the lower Texas coastal waters on Sunday as the front pushes farther offshore. While above normal temperatures are still anticipated today, cooler temperatures will occur tonight and tomorrow in the wake of the front.
Long Term - Sunday Night through Friday
The latest GFS/ECMWF remains in good agreement with persistent west to northwest flow aloft and northerly flow at the surface through Tuesday. This will allow much drier air to filter into deep south Texas Sunday night through Monday night as cold air advection continues. Low temperatures Monday morning are expected to fall into the 40s at most locations. A reinforcing surge of surface high pressure arrives on Monday resulting in another push of cooler air and moderate to breezy north winds. The 1028mb surface high pressure builds across Texas on Monday into Monday night before moving east across the northern Gulf coast on Tuesday. High temperatures on Monday will be in the low to mid 60s with breezy north winds. Light winds and mostly clear skies will allow temperatures to drop into the low to mid 30s across the northern ranchlands to the upper 30s to the lower 40s across the lower Rio Grande Valley Tuesday morning. There is some potential for portions of Kenedy, Brooks, and Jim Hogg counties to fall to or below the freezing early Tuesday morning.
Temperatures gradually warm Tuesday and Tuesday night as southeast flow develops. Highs on Tuesday are expected to reach the mid to upper 60s to around 70. A slight chance of rain returns Wednesday as a surface trough develops along the lower Texas coast. Models begin to diverge by midweek with the timing of the next front and the rain chances. Will continue to mention rain chances for Wednesday night through Thursday night with the next cold front but will lean on the drier side of the guidance for now. Temperatures are expected to remain below normal Thursday and Friday in the wake of the front.
MARINE (Now through Sunday): Increasing winds and building seas are expected during this period of the forecast as a cold front gradually transitions through the Lower Texas Coast. While favorable marine conditions are forecast for today, Small Craft Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory are likely to be needed tonight through Sunday due to strong winds and rough seas.
Sunday Night through Thursday: Ongoing Small Craft Advisories will likely continue into Monday night due to strong north winds and high seas. Conditions briefly improve Tuesday into Tuesday night as high pressure settles across the western Gulf. Another cold front is expected to move into the coastal waters around midweek. Adverse conditions will develop along the lower Texas coast Wednesday night through Friday.
NOAA Brownsville TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories