Marine Weather Net

Laguna Madre from Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay Marine Forecast


REST OF TONIGHT

SE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

THURSDAY

SE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

THURSDAY NIGHT

SE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

FRIDAY

SE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ135 Forecast Issued: 938 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
Rest Of Tonight...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Choppy On The Bay.
Thursday...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Choppy On The Bay.
Thursday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Choppy On The Bay.
Friday...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Choppy On The Bay.
Friday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Becoming South 10 To 15 Knots Early In The Morning. Choppy On The Bay, Diminishing To A Moderate Chop Early In The Morning.
Saturday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Choppy On The Bay.
Saturday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Choppy On The Bay.
Sunday...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Choppy On The Bay.
Sunday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Becoming South 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. A Moderate Chop On The Bay.
Monday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Moderate Chop On The Bay.
Monday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Moderate Chop On The Bay.
SHARE THIS PAGE:           
Area Forecast Discussion
...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1130pm CDT Wednesday May 22 2024

Long Term
(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 225pm CDT Wednesday May 22 2024

Dangerous heat will continue to be the main story in the extended forecast period, especially during the Memorial Day Weekend. Prolonged subsidence and southerly low level flow will maintain a warming trend through Sunday and Monday. Sunday appears to be the peak of the heat as the 850 temps peak at 28-30.5 Celsius across our CWA. A great indicator of this exceptional heat is the fact that the NAEFS 850 temperatures during the Fri-Monday timeframe were forecast to be 2-4 standard deviations above normal across our CWA. This will translate into record-breaking temperatures (or close to it), especially during the holiday weekend for portions of the CWA. Little to no relief is expected at night given the moderate gradient helping to keep overnight lows in the upper 70s to lower 80s for most of the area. The NWS HeatRisk product continues to indicate most of the CWA (County Warning Area) in the Extreme category for Fri-Mon.

Meanwhile, the combination of this intense heat and surface dewpoints generally in the mid 70s and higher for most areas, especially east of I-69C will translate into heat indices 111-118 on Fri...112-120 on Sat and 114-122 on Sunday and Mon. A widespread heat advisory is likely on Fri. An excessive heat warning will likely be warranted for portions of the Northern Ranchlands and Mid/Upper Valley on Sat. By Sunday and Mon, most of the CWA except for Zapata and Jim Hogg counties will likely need an excessive heat warning. Zapata and Jim Hogg counties will have lower heat indices as these areas will be west of the dryline feature that will be developing each day.

By Monday night, the synoptic pattern does begin to change as the broad mid/upper ridge axis anchored across Mexico begins to weaken just a bit and as a cold front approaches Central and Southeast TX. Most of the convective activity associated with this front and associated shortwave energy will remain north of the CWA. However, isolated convection will be possible across the ranchlands before weakening. Slightly better rain chances will occur on Tuesday and Wednesday as the wind flow becomes backed which will help to weaken the cap and draw in deeper moisture. Also, there will be several shortwaves that will affect the CWA and enhance rain chances for the Tue-Wednesday timeframe. For now, will only go with slight chance POPs for Tuesday and Wednesday given the long timeframe involved. However would not be surprised to see these POPs increase, especially for the ranchlands, as we get closer in time to this timeframe. Given the backed winds and higher moisture, there will be a break in the very hot conditions for the Tue-Wednesday timeframe. Temperatures will still be above normal on Tuesday and Wednesday but not be nearly as high as during the first part of the forecast period.

Marine
Issued at 225pm CDT Wednesday May 22 2024

Tonight through Thursday night...An enhanced pressure gradient will result in moderate to breezy winds and moderate seas through tomorrow night along the Laguna Madre and Gulf waters. Small Craft Exercise Caution will prevail through the period, although a brief Small Craft Advisory may be necessary along the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters due to breezy winds Thursday afternoon.

Friday through next Wednesday...A persistent moderate to occasionally strong pressure and thermal gradient will maintain at least widespread caution conditions through Sunday across the coastal waters. In fact, marginal small craft advisory conditions will even be possible for the Laguna Madre for Saturday and Sunday. The gradient will slowly weaken by Monday and continue that trend into Tuesday and Wednesday with the approach of the front across Central and Southeast TX.

NOAA Brownsville TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
None.