Laguna Madre from Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming South 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. A Moderate Chop On The Bay Subsiding To A Light Chop After Midnight.|
|Sunday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southeast 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. A Light Chop On The Bay Building To A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon.|
|Sunday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. A Light Chop On The Bay.|
|Monday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. A Light Chop On The Bay.|
|Monday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. A Light Chop On The Bay.|
|Tuesday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Moderate Chop On The Bay. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming South 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. A Moderate Chop On The Bay Building To Choppy After Midnight. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Shifting Northwest In The Afternoon. A Moderate Chop On The Bay. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday Night...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots Shifting Northwest After Midnight. A Light Chop On The Bay.|
|Thursday...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Moderate Chop On The Bay.|
|Thursday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Moderate Chop On The Bay.|
| Synopsis for Baffin Bay to Rio Grande out 60 nm: GMZ100|
349 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021
Favorable marine conditions are expected through the weekend and into early next week with a modest pressure gradient in place. More adverse winds and seas are anticipated around the middle of next week due to the approach and passage of a cold front. In addition, rain chances may increase ahead of and along the frontal passage mid week.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
246pm CDT Sat Oct 23 2021
Short Term - Tonight through Sunday Night
As one 500mb shortwave trough moves across the northwest Gulf of Mexico tonight a weaker one moves across west Texas. Not much in the way of rain chances are expected with the second feature as low to mid level moisture remains limited across deep south Texas tonight into Sunday. In addition...subsidence will increase across the area Sunday with northwest flow aloft across southwest Texas as the upper level trough moves eastward and a 500mb ridge across northern Mexico builds eastward into northeast Mexico and the Rio Grande Valley Sunday into Sunday night. Will mention some patchy fog across portions of the northern ranchlands tonight. Temperatures will continue to be above normal through the short term forecast period especially at night.
Astronomical high tides will continue.nue along the lower Texas coast this evening through early Sunday morning. A coastal hazard message has already been issued to address any minor tidal overflow along the coast as well as along the inlet portions of the Laguna Madre.
Long Term - Monday through Saturday
A subtle ridge at H5 will remain overhead Monday, which keeps us largely rain-free to start the work week. Temperatures Monday remain warm for late October with daytime highs in the 90s, a good 4 to 8 degrees above normal.
Things then get much more active the rest of the week. Hurricane Rick in the Eastern Pacific is forecast to make landfall along the southwest coast of Mexico Monday morning. The remnants of Rick, whatever is leftover after its trek across the Sierra Madre Oriental, will be pulled north by a strong H5 longwave trough trudging through the western half of the country. All of this will help increase our rain chances Tuesday afternoon and evening, especially for the eastern half of the CWA and our Gulf waters. That said, the GFS and EURO do disagree on just how widespread some of the rain will be for Deep South Texas, so have capped POPs at 20 to 30% for the eastern half of the CWA and 30 to 40% for the Gulf waters.
Meanwhile, a surface low develops Tuesday afternoon in the Central Plains in response to the longwave trough mentioned above. The low and associated cold front will absorb the leftovers of Rick and bring better rain chances to our northern friends later Tuesday night into Wednesday. Locally, the aforementioned cold front will swing through Wednesday afternoon. The highlight of this front will be the 20 to 30 degree drop in our dew points (aka: much drier air!) across much of the Rio Grande Valley Wednesday afternoon. We do eventually cool off some to end the work week, especially at night where overnight lows go from the 70s Wednesday morning to closer to 60 Thursday morning and widespread 50s Friday morning. Daytime highs will remain well into the 90s Wednesday ahead of the cold front to near normal (mid- upper 80s) Thursday and slightly cooler than normal Friday. Tranquil, near normal temperatures are forecast the final Saturday of the month.
onight through Sunday night): Seas were near 3 feet with east winds near 12 knots at buoy020 at 120 pm this afternoon. Moderate southeast winds will prevail across the coastal waters tonight with surface low pressure across southwest Kansas. The pressure gradient will weaken slightly across the lower Texas coast Sunday. Light to moderate southeast winds will prevail across the western Gulf of Mexico Sunday through Sunday night.
Monday through Thursday: Light to moderate onshore flow and seas of 3 to 4 feet prevail across the coastal waters to start the work week. A surface low developing in the Central Plains Tuesday will strengthen the pressure gradient for Tuesday and Wednesday. With the increased winds, SCEC will likely be needed and Small Craft Advisories may also be needed Tuesday into Wednesday. Winds behind Wednesday’s cold front are forecast to remain near SCEC criteria before calming down later this week. The best chance for showers and storms will be Tuesday and Wednesday as the remnants of Rick move through Tuesday and the cold front swings through Wednesday.
NOAA Brownsville TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories