
Laguna Madre from Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay Marine Forecast
Rest Of Tonight...Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Light Chop On The Bay. |
Tuesday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Moderate Chop On The Bay. |
Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming North 15 To 20 Knots Early In The Morning. Light Chop On The Bay, Increasing To Choppy Early In The Morning. |
Wednesday...North Winds 20 To 25 Knots With Gusts Up To 30 Knots. Rough On The Bay. |
Wednesday Night...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Choppy On The Bay. |
Thursday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Choppy On The Bay. |
Thursday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Moderate Chop On The Bay. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
Friday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Moderate Chop On The Bay. Showers Likely. |
Friday Night...Northeast Winds Around 10 Knots, Becoming North Early In The Morning. Light Chop On The Bay, Increasing To A Moderate Chop Early In The Morning. Showers Likely, Mainly In The Evening. |
Saturday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Moderate Chop On The Bay. A Chance Of Showers. |
Saturday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Moderate Chop On The Bay. |
Area Forecast Discussion ...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1041pm CST Monday Feb 17 2025 Long Term (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 238pm CST Monday Feb 17 2025 Key message: * A major cool down will occur Wednesday through Saturday behind an Arctic cold front, but confidence for widespread or significant freezing or wintry precipitation is very low (10%) and mainly applicable to the Brush Country. Loaded the NBM without significant adjustment. This run, with respect to the Arctic air mass, seems similar to the run 24 hours ago, with the coldest temperatures checking in Wednesday night to Thursday morning (after the Wednesday cold front arrival). We will realize Wednesday high temps at midnight, since Wednesday high temps will not recover to the midnight values during the day. Used the Dynamic Ensemble-based Scenarios for IDSS (DESI), to determine that there is very low confidence of freezing temps spreading across the Rio Grande Valley Thursday morning. Confidence is slightly higher (10%), though, that the Brush Country could dip to freezing or or just below for a few hours Thursday morning. That doesn't mean it won't be cold other mornings. High temps in the lower 40s to lower 50s will occur on other mornings and through the weekend as an Arctic air mass arrives and spreads over the area. Look for highs in the 40s and 50s Thursday through Saturday. Not until next Sunday will high temps return to the 60s and 70s. The cool down will be a swing of around 30 degrees from Tuesday to Wednesday and going forward to the rest of the week. As an upper-level trough moves across the Central Plains, it will support an underlying cold front marching south into deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, arriving at the coast/Brownsville around dawn Wednesday. Southeast portions of the CWA (County Warning Area) will see limited rain chances (around 10%) Wednesday morning as the front moves through the area. A relatively stable airmass and dry air aloft will likely hinder the development of more widespread precipitation. As we move through the latter half of the week, a coastal trough and weak overrunning pattern will set up. This will lead to increased cloud cover and rain chances Thursday night through Saturday. A short wave trough moving across Texas Saturday night will be followed by upstream ridging and a drier northwest flow. A weak surface cold front will move through Sunday morning, allowing the coastal trough to fill and a bubble of high pressure to settle over South Texas to finish out the long term. Marine Issued at 238pm CST Monday Feb 17 2025 Tonight through Tuesday night...Light to moderate south- southeasterly winds and slight to moderate (3-4 ft) seas are expected to continue through through the majority of the period, at least into Tuesday evening, as a high pressure holds steady across the lower Texas coastal waters. In the late hours of Tuesday night and into early Wednesday morning, a strong surge of high pressure is expected to rush southward, bringing a sharp increase in northerly winds with fresh to strong, possibly near gale force, sustained winds and gale force gusts by sunrise on Wednesday. Small Craft Advisories, or possibly a Gale Watch, are likely to be issued. Additionally, there is a low to medium (20-30%) chance over the coastal waters with the best chance over the offshore (20-60 nm) Gulf waters. Wednesday through Saturday night... Key message: * Marine conditions will turn hazardous Wednesday as a strong cold front moves through. A few gusts to gale force will be possible. A cold front will push across the waters early Wednesday morning around dawn. Strong north winds and building seas will take over. There is brief moderate confidence (30 to 40%) that we could see a few gusts to gale force on Wednesday, but we will at least see small craft advisory conditions. Have decided to hold off on a gale watch this cycle pending better confidence. Conditions will improve slowly from Wednesday night through Friday night, with continuing moderate to fresh north to northeast winds. Seas on the Gulf will remain elevated, meaning that we can probably expect small craft advisory conditions on the Gulf from Wednesday (assuming no gales) through the end of the long term marine forecast period. Winds will should decrease below 20 knots on Thursday, but Gulf seas will remain elevated into the weekend. NOAA Brownsville TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories TX...None. GM...None. |