Laguna Madre from Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming North 15 To 25 Knots In The Afternoon. A Moderate Chop On The Bay Building To Choppy In The Afternoon. Chance Of Rain Showers.|
|Tonight...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Choppy On The Bay. Slight Chance Of Rain Showers Through The Night.|
|Friday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Choppy On The Bay.|
|Friday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. A Moderate Chop On The Bay Subsiding To A Light Chop After Midnight.|
|Saturday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots Shifting Northeast In The Afternoon. A Light Chop On The Bay.|
|Saturday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. A Light Chop On The Bay.|
|Sunday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. A Light Chop On The Bay. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Sunday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots Shifting West After Midnight. A Light Chop On The Bay. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Monday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots. A Light Chop On The Bay.|
|Monday Night...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Northwest After Midnight. A Light Chop On The Bay Subsiding To Smooth After Midnight.|
Synopsis for Baffin Bay to Rio Grande out 60 nm: GMZ100|
937 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2019
Marine conditions are expected to deteriorate this afternoon as the pressure gradient strengthens due to reinforcing high pressure and weak coastal troughing. Moderate to strong northerly winds and elevated seas will create hazardous marine conditions into Friday morning. Showers will continue to move offshore through Friday morning. More favorable conditions will return this weekend before the next frontal boundary arrives Sunday night.
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
238pm CST Thu Nov 14 2019
Short Term - Now through Friday Night
Upper level trough continues to head ENE across Central and East Texas with light rain and drizzle still continuing across portions of Deep South Texas. Thinning clouds brought enough sunshine through in the lower valley to help bump temperatures into the 60s, while most other locations in the Rio Grande Valley to this point have been stifled in the upper 50s. As high pressure builds in, the pressure gradient will strengthen through this evening, increasing northerly winds, especially along the coast and offshore. Overnight temps dip into the low to mid 40s across the ranchlands, with mid to upper 40s likely across the RGV. Thicker cloud cover may help a few locations stay near 50 degrees. Slightly more sunshine working west to east on Friday should help highs reach a little further into the 60s, although northwesterly flow may slow the warmth. Friday night temps across the north and west are expected to dip into the low 40s under clearing skies with lighter winds. A few of the typical cooler locations may even touch the upper 30s, while the Rio Grande Valley should hold in the mid to upper 40s.
Observed water levels at Brazos Santiago have remained nearly 1 foot above predicted, potentially leading to high tide water levels near 1.25 feet or slightly above at 732 this evening. Narrow beaches may become nearly impassable late this afternoon or early this evening through late tonight. With stronger northerly winds and higher astronomical tides, water levels across the southern Laguna Madre and South Bay are expected to be higher as well. In the past few weeks, water has reached onto portions of HWY 4 west of Boca Chica Village and Boca Chica State Park. While this scenario does not appear to be as significant as recent events, motorists this evening into late tonight should exercise caution. A Coastal Flood Statement has been issued and will likely be needed again Friday evening.
Long Term - Saturday through Thursday
The long term period begins with a 500 mb ridge building overhead through the weekend, bringing pleasant weather conditions to Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Subsidence will keep any mentionable rain chances at bay and allow skies to remain partly to mostly sunny through Sunday. Temperatures are expected to range from the 40s Saturday morning to the lower 70s by afternoon and the lower to mid 50s Sunday morning to the mid 70s Sunday afternoon.
A quick moving shortwave trough will bring a weak cold front through the region Sunday night, but models continue to show little cold air advection with this front, so the only impact to the temperature will be a brief pause in the warming trend. 1000-500 mb moisture remains low to moderate as the front moves through, so this is expected to be a rather dry frontal passage. Have confined the slight chance Probability of Precipitation to the coastal areas and offshore on Sunday night and Monday. As the the shortwave trough moves out of the area by Monday evening, mid-level ridging will once again build overhead and dominate the remainder of the long term period. The warming trend will resume under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies through Thursday. Expect temperatures to rise into the 80s Tuesday through Thursday with lows in the 50s and 60s. Rain chances begin to creep back in to the offshore waters Thursday evening as the long-range models pick up on an influx of 1000-500 mb moisture to our region, so have kept slight chance Probability of Precipitation over the coastal areas and offshore during the day on Thursday, and extended the coverage inland Thursday night.
Overall, no significant changes were made to this morning's long term forecast package.
Marine - Now through Friday night
As high pressure builds across Deep South Texas, the pressure gradient strengthens and continues moderate northerly flow across the coastal waters. Latest model guidance has leaned toward slightly subdued seas compared to previous forecast packages, however, still remaining elevated above SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria, especially offshore. Winds across the Laguna Madre may reach SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for Winds criteria at times this afternoon through this evening, and conditions may begin to improve overnight. Conditions improve through Friday night, with favorable conditions expected beyond the short term.
Saturday through Wednesday: Marine conditions will improve into the weekend and remain favorable through Wednesday. A weak cold front will pass through Sunday night, bringing a slight chance of rain and only increasing wind speeds and seas slightly, but marine conditions will remain favorable. Onshore winds will pick up Wednesday afternoon into the evening, causing seas to build to 3 to 5 feet offshore by Thursday morning.
NOAA Brownsville TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory for winds until noon CST Friday for GMZ130- 132-135.
Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Friday for GMZ150-155-170- 175.