Laguna Madre from Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay Marine Forecast
|Today...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots This Afternoon. A Light Chop On The Bay Becoming A Moderate Chop On The Bay This Afternoon. Patchy Fog This Morning.
|Tonight...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. A Light Chop On The Bay.
|Monday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. A Light Chop On The Bay.
|Monday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming South After Midnight. A Light Chop On The Bay.
|Tuesday...North Winds Around 5 Knots Becoming Northeast In The Afternoon. A Light Chop On The Bay.
|Tuesday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southeast After Midnight. A Light Chop On The Bay.
|Wednesday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. A Light Chop On The Bay.
|Wednesday Night...Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots. A Light Chop On The Bay.
|Thursday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Moderate Chop On The Bay.
|Thursday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Decreasing To 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. A Moderate Chop On The Bay Becoming A Light Chop On The Bay After Midnight.
| Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
317am CST Sunday Mar 3 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TER
.SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 305am CST Sunday Mar 3 2024
The BRO CWFA will be dominated by a zonal 500 mb flow during the period, with significant surface features not anticipated. This will produce dry weather for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, with overnight fog being the only concern.
Temperature-wise, well above normal daytime highs and overnight lows are forecast, aided by an onshore flow.
(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 305am CST Sunday Mar 3 2024
An upper level trough centered over West Texas will move across the region Monday night. At the surface warm temperatures and ample moisture will lead to a fairly unstable environment, with MLCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/kg and a fairly weak CAP with CIN values below 100 J/kg. While the atmosphere looks primed for some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, the big question is if and where convective initiation could occur.
The 0z GFS (Global Forecast System) run and 3z RAP run both show a mid-level shortwave moving through the region, kicking off a line of showers and thunderstorms over western portions of the CWA. The 0z runs of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and NAM models on the other hand, have significantly less forcing, favoring the majority of showers and thunderstorms developing offshore. The NAM run did hint at some isolated convection further inland, whereas the ECMWF run keeps all of the rain chances along the coast or offshore. The tail ends of a couple CAMs just reach the event, but also disagree on the outcome. The 6z HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) run is favoring isolated convection across Deep South Texas, while the 3z NAM-NEST run is keeping the convection offshore.
Given the uncertainty, on IF any convection will occur inland, PoPs where left around 10% for now. While isolated to scattered convection is certainly possible, very low rain chances look more likely, though this could changes as more runs of the CAMs become available.
The rest of the forecast is a bit more straight forward. A cold front looks to stall to our north Tuesday morning allowing winds to shift easterly across Deep South Texas. The front then retreats back to the north as southeasterly winds return Wednesday. Zonal flow aloft looks to return by mid week, though this is short lived as a trough looks to develop along the West Coast Thursday. This will support another cold front arriving near the end of the week. While this one looks like it will move through our area, the environment looks to be more stable this time around, and rain chances look to be near zero.
Increased winds and dry air behind the front could introduce some fire weather concerns Saturday afternoon, though conditions look to be borderline at this time.
Temperatures look to reach the upper 80s to low 90s each afternoon through Friday, with the cold front's arrival reducing the high temperatures into the mid to upper 70s Saturday. Likewise the overnight low temperatures look to range remain in the 60s through the work week, before dropping into the 50s Friday night behind the cold front.
Issued at 305am CST Sunday Mar 3 2024
Today through Monday...High pressure is expected to remain the dominant weather feature over the western Gulf of Mexico during the period. This will provide the Lower Texas Coast with generally light winds and low seas, with Small Craft Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory not likely to be needed. However, mariners will have to contend with areas of fog this morning, especially over the Laguna Madre and Gulf of Mexico water between 0 to 20 nautical miles offshore.
Monday night through Saturday...Generally favorable conditions look to persist through the work week before adverse conditions arrive next weekend. The exception being some showers and thunderstorms that could develop Monday night. Otherwise, light to moderate onshore winds and low seas look to continue into Friday. A cold front looks to move offshore Friday, and increased winds and seas behind the front could necessitate Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines or Small Craft Advisories Saturday.
NOAA Brownsville TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories