Laguna Madre from Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southeast After Midnight. A Light Chop On The Bay Subsiding To Smooth After Midnight.|
|Friday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. A Light Chop On The Bay.|
|Friday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Shifting South After Midnight. A Light Chop On The Bay.|
|Saturday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southeast 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. A Light Chop On The Bay Building To A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon.|
|Saturday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Moderate Chop On The Bay.|
|Sunday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Moderate Chop On The Bay.|
|Sunday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Moderate Chop On The Bay.|
|Monday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Shifting Northeast In The Afternoon. A Moderate Chop On The Bay. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Monday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Moderate Chop On The Bay. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Tuesday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Northeast 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. A Moderate Chop On The Bay Subsiding To A Light Chop In The Afternoon.|
|Tuesday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southeast After Midnight. A Light Chop On The Bay Subsiding To Smooth After Midnight.|
| Synopsis for Baffin Bay to Rio Grande out 60 nm: GMZ100|
954 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020
Gulf seas and swells continue to diminish with surface high pressure in control. A light to moderate flow will continue from out of the north to northeast tonight before shifting to a more east- southeasterly flow from Friday through the weekend. Marine conditions may possibly deteriorate during early to middle of next week due to the passage of a cold front.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX
626pm CDT Thu September 24 2020
Short Term - Tonight through Friday Night
A low-level cloud deck held stout this morning, especially across central and western portions of Deep South Texas, before gradually breaking into the afternoon. This delayed the onset of daytime heating slightly. However, despite the morning cloud cover, temperatures are still expected to peak in the low to mid 90s for most with rain free conditions. A mild night will be expected tonight with the winds become light and variable.
Surface high pressure settled over the region will slowly nudge towards the east on Friday while models indicate that a weakness within the 500 mb flow along the Texas coast begins to gradually amplify into a cutoff low across southeast Texas. With the surface flow becoming more southeasterly by Friday afternoon, anticipate warmer conditions and slightly more humid air to finish out the short term period. The rain chances remain quite low but a stray shower cannot be completely ruled out from Friday into Friday night.
Despite decreasing swell across the coastal gulf waters, high astronomical tides will continue to result in the potential for water run-up during the high tide cycles overnight tonight and possibly again late Friday night. With the water levels still running about 1.2 feet above the predicted and the strongest predicted high tide of the week expected to occur overnight at around 2:11 am, I have elected to upgrade the Coastal Flood Statement to a Coastal Flood Advisory for tonight.
Long Term - Saturday through Thursday
The 500 mb trough that is in place will slowly lift northeast through the weekend and with very dry air in place and dry conditions prevailing. Winds on Saturday will increase slightly due to a surface low over west Texas and surface high pressure building over the gulf of Mexico and become more southerly allowing warmer temperatures to surge into the area. Right now both the GFS and Euro have been trending up with temperatures due to this southerly flow with the Euro being slightly more aggressive. For now we will lean more towards the Euro with the temperature solution.
Monday, the forecast is coming into agreement between the GFS and Euro with pushing a cold front through the entire area by late afternoon. With this front moving through the upper areas of the CWA early in the afternoon temperatures will drop below normal in the early afternoon while temperatures should rise to above normal before frontal passage in the late afternoon across the Lower Valley. A surge of moisture is expected just before the front passes increasing the chance of PoPs, especially in the lower Valley for Monday afternoon into Monday night. Southerly flow returns briefly late Tuesday before another weaker and drier frontal passage could move through Deep South Texas on Wednesday, though we can not rule out isolated showers of thunderstorms in the Valley ahead of this boundary. Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages after Mondays frontal passage through Thursday.
MARINE (Today through Friday night): TABS Buoy K is reporting light north-northeasterly winds of around 5 to 10 knots this afternoon while Buoy 42020 is reporting seas of around 2 feet. Favorable marine conditions continue as surface high pressure remains over the region before slowly nudging towards the east. Surface winds turn more east-southeasterly Friday afternoon into Friday night as a result.
(Saturday through Tuesday Night): Surface high pressure will continue across the Gulf waters though a slight tightening of the gradient on Saturday due to low pressure building eastward over Texas could lead to slight increased winds, with possible small craft caution conditions beginning Saturday night through the frontal approach on Monday. As the front approaches and crosses the area higher winds and seas are expected leading to a possible Small Craft Advisory for the Gulf waters, mainly overnight Monday into Tuesday midday. More favorable conditions will return for Tuesday night.
NOAA Brownsville TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7am CDT Friday for TXZ256-257-351.