Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield, TX Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Tonight...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. |
| Thursday...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Gusts To 30 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. |
| Thursday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 30 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet, With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet. |
| Friday...Southeast Winds 20 To 25 Knots With Gusts Up To 35 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet, With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet. |
| Friday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Gusts To 30 Knots In The Evening. Seas 5 To 7 Feet, With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet. |
| Saturday...Southeast Winds 20 To 25 Knots With Gusts Up To 35 Knots. Seas 6 To 8 Feet, With Occasional Seas Up To 9 Feet. |
| Saturday Night...Southeast Winds 25 To 30 Knots Decreasing To 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Seas 6 To 8 Feet, With Occasional Seas Up To 9 Feet. |
| Sunday...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Gusts To 30 Knots In The Morning. Seas 6 To 8 Feet, With Occasional Seas Up To 9 Feet. |
| Sunday Night...Southeast Winds Around 15 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet, With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet. |
| Monday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, With Occasional Seas Up To 7 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Monday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, With Occasional Seas Up To 7 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 640pm CDT Wednesday April 24 2024 Long Term (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1259pm CDT Wednesday April 24 2024 Key message: -The South Texas wind machine will switch on Friday through Sunday Generally quiet weather will dominate the long term forecast period. This pattern will be supported by surface high pressure influencing the region while significant storm systems move over the Plains late in the week and into the weekend. That doesn't mean we'll go without any local threats, however. The tighter pressure gradient accompanying the aforementioned pattern will allow strong southeast to south winds to develop. This will be especially true Friday and Saturday and possibly Sunday. As wave heigheights increase on the Gulf, the rip current threat will peg at high through Sunday or Monday just based off wave heigheights and may continue longer if heigheights remain moderate with longer period swells. Winds on Friday will be strong and could reach wind advisory criteria over the eastern third or so of the CWA. The fire weather threat will remain more restrained since the stonger winds will occur over eastern sections where relative humidity values will remain robust. Farther west, lower wind speeds and still decent relative humidity values will fall shy of critical fire weather indicators. The GFS (Global Forecast System) introduces a small convective threat over the Ranchlands Friday afternoon and evening as the tail end of a cold front digs south. The threat is currently too low for mention in the grids. Wash, rinse, and repeat for Saturday as low pressure over North Central Mexico helps maintain a tight gradient. The threat of a wind advisory will return on Saturday, but there is still a bit of uncertainty regarding coverage and duration. Winds may decrease just a bit on Sunday as a cold front descends toward South Texas. That front will be a bigger issue for East Texas. Most of the energy over South Texas will be eroded by strong southeast inflow, keeping the boundary slightly to the north and lowering overall convective chances for the CWA. Nonetheless, the NBM does admit mentionable tstorm potential Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. Instability in the mid-levels seems to increase while the previous ridge starts to break down. The NBM shows what looks like a training cell scenario Monday night across the mid Valley northeast through the Ranchlands. This signal was evident in yesterday's forecast, increasing confidence a bit. Can't rule Sierra Madre Oriental convection again Tuesday and Wednesday, but the threat seems to diminish from west to east, from the front range to the Rio Grande, and to the Ranchlands. Temperatures will run several degrees above normal through the forecast with no real interruptions. There will be a mix of clouds and sun, though windier days could support a slightly more robust low cloud regime. Otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. Marine Issued at 1259pm CDT Wednesday April 24 2024 Tonight through Thursday night...Upper level disturbances resulting in the strengthening of surface low pressure systems over Central Mexico and the High Plains will combine with a broad Surface low over the eastern Gulf to produce tighter pressure gradients and stronger winds along the Lower Texas Coast Thursday. These stronger southeasterly winds will build higher seas, and likely lead to adverse conditions on the Laguna Madre and coastal Gulf waters. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed on the Laguna Madre Thursday afternoon, and extending into the coastal Gulf waters Thursday night. Friday through Monday night...Strong southeast winds will prevail Friday through Saturday night, courtesy of interaction between Plains low pressure and higher pressure over the West Gulf. Small craft advisory conditions will be the norm. After Saturday night, winds will remain moderate to fresh. Although small craft should exercise caution conditions will be the norm on the Laguna Madre after Saturday night, wave models continue the elevated Gulf seas, meaning small craft advisory conditions will be possible through the end of the period. NOAA Brownsville TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories TX...High Rip Current Risk from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for TXZ451-454-455. GM...None. |
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