Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield, TX Marine Forecast
|Tonight...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Monday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Monday Night...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Tuesday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Early In The Morning.|
|Tuesday Night...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet.|
|Wednesday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet Building To 5 To 7 Feet, With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet In The Afternoon.|
|Wednesday Night...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 6 To 8 Feet, With Occasional Seas Up To 9 Feet.|
|Thursday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 6 To 9 Feet, With Occasional Seas Up To 11 Feet.|
|Thursday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 6 To 8 Feet, With Occasional Seas Up To 9 Feet.|
|Friday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet, With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet.|
|Friday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming East 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX
644pm CDT Sunday September 25 2022
(Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 241pm CDT Sunday September 25 2022
A cold front will be clearing the Rio Grande Valley Tuesday morning with a lingering shower or thunderstorm possible. As the front pushes south Tuesday afternoon, high pressure builds in and pushes much drier air over the region. Daytime highs behind the front will be in the upper 80s to middle 90s with overnight lows in the lower to middle 60s for much of the region with middle to upper 50s possible across the Northern Ranchlands. Along the coast, minor coastal flooding, high surf, and a high risk of rip currents are possible the second half of the work week.
Some weak vorticity swinging around the base of a longwave trough over the eastern third of the country will finally push a cold front fully through the County Warning Area (CWA) Tuesday morning. A few showers and/or storms are possible along the front until it finally moves south into Mexico. Behind the front, much drier air settles over the region on the heels of a north to northeasterly breeze. In other words, we finally get a break from the humidity in the final days of September and to begin October! That drier air and northeast wind will allow overnight temperatures to cool into the 60s Tuesday night; the wind slackens quite a bit Wednesday night, so the stage will be set for widespread lower to middle 60s Wednesday night, Thursday night, and Friday night. Some locations in the Brooks/Kenedy Ranches and the Brush Country will likely dip into the middle to upper 50s Thursday night and Friday night. Those cool nigheights will be followed up by warm, but still below normal, afternoons with widespread upper 80s to lower to middle 90s across the CWA (County Warning Area) each afternoon. All-in-all, not a bad way to end September and begin October here in Deep South Texas weather- wise.
However, there are some coastal hazards in the forecast thanks in large part to Tropical Storm Ian, which is forecast to intensify as it moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and a strong area of high pressure over the Great Lakes. Those two things combined will increase wave heights, swells, and swell periods Wednesday and Thursday before they subside throughout the day Friday. As a result, minor coastal flooding, high surf, and a high risk of rip currents remains a concern as soon as early Tuesday night and lasting through the rest of the work week. High tide times Wednesday are 3:47AM and 7:01 PM; Thursday's high tide is at 8:57PM. Those will be important to know/remember as we get a better handle at any potential coastal flooding impacts Ian may bring.
Issued at 241pm CDT Sunday September 25 2022
Now through Monday Night: Generally favorable marine conditions are expected along the lower Texas coast through the remainder of the day today. Slightly elevated winds could prompt low end caution conditions by Monday afternoon into Monday night. A cold front is slated to move through the coastal waters Monday night into Tuesday. Ahead of this front, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms could lead to localized elevated winds and seas.
Tuesday through Sunday: An isolated shower or storm will remain possible Tuesday morning as a cold front slowly pushes south of the Lower Texas Coast. Moderate north to northwest winds are forecast in the wake of the front along with slightly elevated seas. This may lead to Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions Tuesday through Tuesday night. Swells from Ian will reach the Texas Coast by Wednesday and bring hazardous marine conditions mid to late week. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed by Wednesday and linger into Friday due to seas running between 7 to 9 feet.
NOAA Brownsville TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories