Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield, TX Marine Forecast
|Today...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Feet.|
|Tonight...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet.|
|Friday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet.|
|Friday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet.|
|Saturday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Feet.|
|Saturday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Feet.|
|Sunday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Sunday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Monday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Monday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
| Synopsis for Baffin Bay to Rio Grande out 60 nm: GMZ100|
332 AM CDT Thu Sep 23 2021
High pressure moving across the Plains will settle into the Southeast and northern Gulf of Mexico Friday and beyond. Winds will generally be light to moderate out of the northeast today before becoming more easterly tonight and through the weekend. Seas continue to calm today thanks to the weaker winds in the forecast today and the next several days. Slight rain chances return Sunday and linger into early next week.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
325am CDT Thu September 23 2021
Short Term - Now through Friday
In the words of a famous head football coach: "If it's hot, it's hot. If it's not, then that's what it is." Well, we are finally experiencing, sort of, the latter here in Deep South Texas for the first time since mid-May. High pressure at the surface and a mid-level ridge axis just to our west have combined to push drier air overhead and will provide lots of sunshine today with highs from the middle to upper 80s in the eastern areas to lower 90s out west. Another comfortably cool night is on tap this evening with good radiational cooling (i.e. calm winds and clear skies) anticipated. This should allow widespread 50s in the Northern Ranchlands and Upper Rio Grande Valley with lower 60s everywhere else except along the immediate coast Friday morning. Daytime highs Friday will be very similar to what we experience today. As the surface high pressure moves into the southeast on Friday, this will open the door for higher dew points to creep back into Deep South Texas. Even then, rain chances remain out of the forecast through the short term thanks to lots of dry air and subsidence aloft.
Long Term - SFriday Night through Wednesday
Latest model trends are showing a delay in the sufficient moisture increase and the onset of precipitation chances. A lot of moving parts within the fairly amplitude mid-level flow is slowing down the overall west to east movement of trough and ridges. The SW upper low is trending slower and weaker with its eastward progression and may never reach Texas as another stronger trough moving into the Rockies absorbs it. This will allow for the mid/upper level ridge over the state to dominate through Sunday keeping rain chances near zero. The ridge axis shifts along the coast Monday which may open the door for sea breeze showers as the southerly flow may increase slightly. Models continue to emphasis Tuesday and Wednesday with better rain chances CWA wide but with the SW Desert mid/upper low lifting north and becoming absorbed within a larger trough would not be surprised to see model guidance continue to lower probability of precipitation as we go into next week. At this time, the NBM has best probability of precipitation on Tuesday as the old frontal boundary backs up trends lower for Wednesday with only a weak coastal trough forecast along the lower Texas coast.
Temperatures through the weekend look to vary a few degrees either side of seasonal normals with highs ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows mid 60 to lower 70s. Guidance than trends higher early next week, back to Summer like temperatures with 90s and some western locations nearing 100 degrees. The nice comfortable lows will be a thing of the past as models suggest low to mid 70s and possibly upper 70s along the coast and Lower RGV.
ow through Friday): Marine conditions will improve today as the pressure gradient weakens thanks to high pressure moving into the Southeast and northern Gulf of Mexico. Seas will slowly come down from 3 to 5 feet today to 2 to 4 feet tonight and Friday. Winds will be from the northeast today, but will come from the east tonight and Friday as the high sprawls out across the Gulf of Mexico.
Friday night through Monday...Surface high pressure will have transitioned to the eastern Gulf of Mexico with mid level high pressure over Texas and the Western Gulf. This will maintain a weak pressure gradient providing a light onshore flow and slight seas through the period. Rain chances remain near zero through the weekend with limited showers Sunday night into Monday.
NOAA Brownsville TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories