Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield, TX Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet.|
|Tonight...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet Subsiding To 2 Feet Or Less After Midnight. Slight Chance Of Rain Showers After Midnight.|
|Thursday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 2 Feet Or Less. Slight Chance Of Rain Showers.|
|Thursday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming North 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Seas 2 Feet Or Less Building To 2 To 4 Feet After Midnight. Chance Of Rain Showers In The Evening, Then Rain Showers Likely After Midnight.|
|Friday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Chance Of Rain Showers In The Morning, Then Slight Chance Of Rain Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Friday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet.|
|Saturday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet.|
|Saturday Night...East Winds Around 5 Knots Shifting South After Midnight. Seas 2 Feet Or Less.|
|Sunday...South Winds Around 5 Knots Increasing To 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 2 Feet Or Less.|
|Sunday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming South 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 7 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
Synopsis for Baffin Bay to Rio Grande out 60 nm: GMZ100|
926 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2020
Strong northwest to north winds will maintain hazardous Gulf conditions through early this afternoon. Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely through this afternoon for the Gulf coastal waters. Marine conditions will gradually improve late this afternoon through Thursday night before becoming elevated again on Friday with the arrival of an upper level disturbance and another weak cold front. Heading into the rest of the weekend, marine conditions are expected to improve once again as high pressure moves into the area.
Area Forecast Discussion|
...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX
520am CST Wednesday Jan 29 2020
Short Term - Now through Thursday
Beautiful weather expected today across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley under the influence of the mid-level ridge and surface high pressure settling in behind the front. After a chilly start to the day, highs will reach the low to mid 70s under mostly sunny skies with light northerly winds. In this very dry airmass, relative humidity values are expected to drop into the teens out west and into the 20s along the eastern counties this afternoon, but winds will be light, so erratic fire behavior and spread will not be a concern at this time.
Heading into Thursday, the mid/upper-level ridge slides off to the east as the next mid-level trough digs into the southwestern part of the state and northern Mexico. Ahead of this system, isentropic lift will be responsible for increasing cloud cover through the day on Thursday and into the start of the long term period as warm, moist air from the south overrides the cooler air at the surface. Rain chances are introduced Thursday afternoon and increase into the start of the long term period as the trough swings overhead and isentropic lift continues.
Long Term - Thursday Night through Tuesday
Mid-level trough axis swings east across Deep South Texas Thursday night into Friday morning. Models develop a weak surface low along a frontal boundary meandering south of the border, as well as weak low pressure across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This combines with ongoing isentropic lift to bring our best chance of rain for the week, with POPs generally 40 to 50 percent, and slightly higher chances across offshore waters. PWAT (Precipitable Water) values peak to around 1 to 1.2 inches early Thursday night before dropping to 0.75 of an inch into Friday morning. Have lowered guidance Quantitative Precipitation Forecast slightly.
High pressure and drier air are expected over the weekend, with southerly surface flow returning Sunday into Monday as both high pressure heads east across the Gulf of Mexico and low pressure develops into the Central Plains. A cut off low develops over the weekend near Baja California and may aide in some moisture return across northern Mexico and into South Texas. Feel models may be overdoing this moisture return slightly. Have left in the slight chance to isolated POPs Sunday night into Monday across the coast. Next front arrives Tuesday, with very dry southwesterly flow aloft. Relative humidity values could dip into the teens across the western counties, with relatively light northerly 20 foot winds.
High temperatures generally warm through the long term, starting below normal into the mid and upper 60s, and gaining a few degrees each day toward the mid 80s Monday into Tuesday. A couple of cooler nigheights are in store across the northern ranchlands Thursday and Friday night, dipping into the mid 40s. Overnight lows also begin to rebound warmer slightly each night this weekend into Tuesday.
Marine - Now through Thursday
Buoy 42020 reported seas of 6.6 feet with 29 knot north-northwesterly winds gusting to 39 knots as of 2:20 this morning. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to continue for the Gulf of Mexico coastal waters through early this afternoon. Winds and seas will then gradually subside through Thursday as high pressure continues to settle into the area.
Thursday Night through Tuesday: Favorable seas Thursday night deteriorate into Friday with increasing northerly flow. There remains a chance of showers across coastal waters Thursday night into Friday afternoon. Winds and seas subside on Saturday into Sunday, with very favorable marine conditions returning. As low pressure develops across the Central Plains and high pressure works east across the Gulf of Mexico, expect southerly winds to increase into Monday, building seas into Tuesday before the arrival of another cold front. There is another chance of showers late Sunday through the day on Monday across coastal waters. Small Craft Advisories may be needed Monday and Tuesday.
NOAA Brownsville TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3pm CST this afternoon for GMZ150- 155-170-175.