Marine Weather Net

Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield, TX Marine Forecast


TODAY

NE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

E
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

WEDNESDAY

SE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ155 Forecast Issued: 1229 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING
Today...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet, With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet Subsiding To 4 To 5 Feet This Afternoon.
Tonight...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Southeast 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Feet.
Wednesday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.
Wednesday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.
Thursday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming North In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Showers Likely In The Morning. A Chance Of Thunderstorms. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.
Thursday Night...Northeast Winds Around 10 Knots Becoming Southeast After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Feet.
Friday...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Northeast In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Feet.
Friday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet.
Saturday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet.
Saturday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
317am CDT Tuesday Mar 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TER
Marine
.SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 312am CDT Tuesday Mar 19 2024

Quiescent weather expected during the short term forecast period or today through Wednesday thanks to the influence of a 1020-1025 mb surface high pressure system. Clouds will be in play through Wednesday. The breakdown of the western North America Rex Block will allow for a less amplified, zonal to semi-zonal floe pattern aloft to take place. This setup will allow for mid to high level clouds to stream into the local forecast area from Mexico. Additionally, there could be some low level clouds at times between now and Wednesday thanks to the marine influence from the Gulf due to easterly winds (continued onshore flow). Despite the clouds that will be in play over the next couple of days, temperatures are expected to undergo a warming trend. High temperatures today are forecast to be in the mid 60s to lower 70s due to continued cool air advection (CAA) from northeasterly winds. As the aforementioned surface high shifts east- southeastward, winds are expected to shift more out of the southeast on Wednesday. This will allow for high temperatures to warm into the low to mid 70s over the local forecast area on Wednesday.

During the day on Wednesday, especially during the afternoon/evening hours, the probability of precipitation (showers/thunderstorms) as a shortwave and associated surface low and frontal boundary tracks towards the region. Probability of Precipitation are only low grade (10-20%) Wednesday afternoon/evening as the best chance for any showers and storms will be Wednesday night into Thursday. That said, much if not all of the daytime on Wednesday should be rain-free.

Long Term
(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 312am CDT Tuesday Mar 19 2024

A mid-level trough swings into North Texas Wednesday night through Thursday night, with a strong shortwave across South Texas Wednesday Night and a weaker impulse Thursday night. A 500mb ridge follows through the weekend as a strong 546mb low drops into northwestern Mexico on Sunday into Monday, increasing southwesterly mid-level flow into early next week.

The right entrance of the upper-level jet streak is in the vicinity of Deep South Texas Wednesday night into Thursday, enhancing divergence aloft, combining with the passing shortwave, and a surface low sliding east across the CWA (County Warning Area) border to briefly increase rain chances to 40-60 percent. This brings the chance of thunderstorms back, and may need to be monitored for an outside shot at severe weather. Currently, Storm Prediction Center has general thunder near the CWA border and nothing south of that, with a Marginal Risk across the EWX/CRP/HGX stretch of South Texas. CAPE and shear both increase through Wednesday night with very steep lapse rates locally, however, there remains a strong mixed layer cap early Wednesday night. The ingredients are there for elevated convection at least, especially across the ranchlands, but convective initiation may be tough and rely on a good outflow boundary or ongoing storms working into the CWA from the northwest. The placement of the surface low could help or hinder convection as well. Another inhibition could be cooler temperatures, likely only reaching the low to maybe mid 70s on Wednesday, falling into the 60s Wednesday night. Regardless, this would be the best chance of rain in the long term period. WPC Quantitative Precipitation Forecast ranges from one- tenth to one-half inch, favoring the coast and ranchlands. GFS (Global Forecast System) and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) are bringing in slightly better moisture than other model guidance, especially across the lower to mid RGV.

A sunny and quiet weekend is on tap before a low level jet sets up along the coast Sunday into early Monday, as low pressure deepens across the Plains, driving breezy to windy southeasterly winds and potentially needing to be monitored for a Wind Advisory. The next frontal boundary remains just beyond this forecast period. Expect low temperatures to gradually slip into the upper 50s and low 60s into the start of the weekend under mostly clear skies with efficient radiational cooling, before gradually warming into the upper 60s to near 70 degrees next week. Highs remain generally in the low to mid 80s Thursday through the weekend, with a slightly warmer Friday and low 90s following on Monday.

Marine
Issued at 312am CDT Tuesday Mar 19 2024

Today through Wednesday...A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Offshore Waters of the Gulf till 1PM CDT. Marine/coastal conditions are expected to continue improving through the day today in response to the decreased wind speeds. There will still remain a moderate risk for rip currents through Wednesday. Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase on Wednesday.

Wednesday Night through Monday...Light generally onshore flow is expected through the end of the week and beginning of the weekend, turning southeasterly and increasing into Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Expect favorable marine conditions into Sunday, with adverse conditions Sunday afternoon through Monday. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed Sunday night through Monday afternoon, with Small Craft Caution before and after. The chance of showers and thunderstorms increases Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with generally dry weather following into next week.

NOAA Brownsville TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7am CDT this morning for TXZ451-454- 455.

High Surf Advisory until 7am CDT this morning for TXZ451-454- 455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7am CDT this morning for GMZ150-155.

Small Craft Advisory until 1pm CDT this afternoon for GMZ170- 175.