Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield, TX Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 7 Feet.|
|Tonight...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet.|
|Sunday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Sunday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Monday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Through The Day.|
|Monday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots Increasing To 20 To 25 Knots After Midnight. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Tuesday...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 7 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1235pm CDT Sat May 21 2022
/issued 610am CDT Sat May 21 2022/
AVIATION...Minor adjustments made to the previous suite of TAFs. However, MVFR (Marginal Visual Flight Rules) to VFR continues to be forecast at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. Winds will increase to breezy levels today before diminishing and backing tonight as a weak cold front approaches from the north.
/issued 304am CDT Sat May 21 2022/
Short Term - Now through Sunday
A zonal flow in the middle layers of the atmosphere over the BRO CWFA will allow dry weather with well above normal temperatures to persist today through tonight. In fact, the combination of daytime highs and relative humidity today will require a Heat Advisory for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon except the coastal portion of Kenedy County and all of Willacy County and Cameron County.
Sunday, the pattern finally changes. The approach of a weak cold front, but subsequent stalling over the CRP CWFA, combined with rising precipitable water and daytime heating, will result in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The best chance of precipitation is anticipated to be over the northern ranchlands and brush country. The opportunity for rainfall, combined with increased cloud cover, will result in Sunday high temperatures at near to slightly above normal levels for once.
Long Term - Sunday Night through Friday
The subtropical mid level ridge centered over central Mexico will be flattened as a large mid level trough sets up over the central CONUS by mid week. At the surface, a cold front will stall across South Texas Sunday night and gradually lift northward and dissipate on Monday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely form in the vicinity of this frontal boundary, so have included a 30 to 40 percent chance across Deep South Texas Sunday night into Monday.
Models continue to be in pretty good agreement on a shortwave moving into southwest Texas Monday afternoon and developing a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) across the southwest portion of the state. This will increase the shower and thunderstorm chances Monday afternoon through Tuesday from west to east across Deep South Texas. The main difference between the deterministic models is that the ECM continues to be a bit wetter than the GFS. The development of this MCS will need to be monitored in future forecast packages.
The next cold front will approach Deep South Texas on Wednesday night and provide another focus for shower and thunderstorm development along and ahead of its frontal boundary. Deterministic models vary on how far south this front will make it through Deep South Texas on Thursday, but current trends show that it should make it through most of the area. A mid level ridge will build in from the west on Thursday night heading into Friday as the trough pushes east. With the model discrepancies by this late in the period, forecast confidence is a bit lower Thursday night and beyond.
Temperatures will be closer to normal early in the week (except for higher than normal overnight lows) and will gradually warm through Wednesday. The front on Thursday will drop temperatures below normal Thursday through Friday...depending on the progression of that particular cold front and convective activity.
ow through Sunday... Buoy 42020 reported southeast winds around 18 knots gusting to around 25 knots with seas slightly under 7 feet with a period of 8 seconds at 150 CDT/650 UTC. Adverse winds and seas, resulting in Small Craft Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory, are expected along the Lower Texas Coast today due to an enhanced pressure gradient over the western Gulf of Mexico. As a weak cold front approaches from the north tonight but stalls, the gradient will relax a bit, resulting in slightly lighter winds and slightly lower seas. However, Small Craft Exercise Caution will likely be needed tonight through Sunday.
Sunday Night through Friday... Elevated winds and seas will persist through most of next week, with the more hazardous conditions expected Monday night through Tuesday night as moderate to strong southeasterly winds set up across the lower Texas waters and build seas into mid week. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for this period. Then SCEC conditions (Small Craft Should Exercise Caution) will linger into Thursday in advance of the next cold front. Showers and thunderstorm activity will pick up early next week and persist into mid week.
NOAA Brownsville TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for TXZ451-454-455.
Heat Advisory until 7pm CDT this evening for TXZ248>253-353.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7pm CDT this evening for GMZ150-155- 170-175.