Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield, TX Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 4 Feet At 6 Seconds. |
| Tonight...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 5 Feet At 7 Seconds. |
| Sunday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 5 Feet At 7 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms Early In The Morning. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms Early In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Sunday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 4 Feet At 7 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms Early In The Evening. A Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Monday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 3 Feet At 7 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Monday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Southeast After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 3 Feet At 6 Seconds. |
| Tuesday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. |
| Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. |
| Wednesday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Wednesday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms After Midnight. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 259pm CST Sat Jan 25 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TER Marine .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 235pm CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Generally rain-free conditions will prevail through the short term period across Deep South Texas. Persistent low level southerly to southeasterly flow will maintain slightly more humid conditions compared to the past few days, and will allow for Gulf moisture to overspread across the region and result in increasing cloud cover tonight into tomorrow. Overcast skies will limit radiational cooling tonight, and keep temperatures mostly in the 60s region wide. The exception will be across the far western portions of the region, where slightly less cloud cover may allow temperatures to fall into the upper 50s. Otherwise, it will feel more like spring tomorrow with partly cloud skies and afternoon high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. There should be an uptick in cloud cover once again Sunday night, which will result in another night of above normal low temperatures, with lows in the upper 50s over the Northern Ranchlands to low 60s across the Rio Grande Valley. Long Term (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 235pm CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Key Messages: * Normal to warmer than normal temperatures continue Monday through next Sunday with daytime highs mainly in the 70s and 80s, and lows in the 50s and 60s. * Increased humidity and instability levels Wednesday through Friday will raise the chance/risk for showers and thunderstorms. * Marine conditions are favorable Monday through Wednesday, but become less favorable Wednesday evening through next weekend. The long-term forecast period will feature a continued warmer than normal pattern under partly to mostly cloudy skies with increased humidity levels and low-grade chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday. An anomalously strong 548-555 mb closed low (+2 to +3 STDEVs above normal) over the Desert Southwest into the Sonoran Desert of Mexico, and an enhanced/increasingly active sub-tropical (southern stream) jet (STJ) will be the primary weather drivers through much of the long-term forecast period. We start off the extended on Monday with a nearby surface low pressure system and quasi-stationary frontal boundary over the local forecast area. Partly to mostly cloudy skies with a low (15-20%) threat/risk for an isolated shower or thunderstorm can be expected during the day on Monday with these features in place. With the frontal boundary placed somewhere between the Rio Grande Valley (RGV) and the Northern Ranchlands, high temperatures will be warmest along the Rio Grande Valley with values topping out in the lower 70s and coolest over the Northern Ranchlands with values topping out in the upper 60s (seasonable levels). Similar thermal layout geographically is expected Monday night with overnight lows in the lower 60s along the Rio Grande Valley and the Lower Texas Coast, and the mid to upper 50s over the Northern Ranchlands. On Tuesday, the aforementioned nearby quasi-stationary boundary begins to shift north of the local forecast area as a return flow out of the southeast develops. Moisture, warm air advection (WAA), and instability values will begin to increase on Tuesday amid the low level southerly flow. Solidly in the warm sector of this mid- latitude cyclone, conditions will remain dry and temperatures will be slightly warmer than Monday with daytime highs topping out in the mid to upper 70s most places with a few lower 80s possible. Cooler along the beach/South Padre Island (SPI) due to the onshore southeasterly flow. Tuesday night will be milder than Monday night with overnight lows in the 60s most places. Wednesday and Thursday will be the warmest days of the week amid the continued southerly flow. Daytime high temperatures are expected to top out in the upper 70s to mid 80s on Wednesday, and mid 70s to lower 80s on Thursday. During this timeframe, global forecast models/ensembles continue to advertise a strong, deepening 548-555 hpa closed low over the Desert Southwest and Sonoran Desert of Mexico that will help to amplify/enhance the southern stream jet or sub-tropical jet (STJ). This ultimately will result in an active southwest flow aloft pattern to develop over the region. Just downwind of this mid-upper low, will be a triple point, double-barreled, occluding low pressure system over north/north-central Mexico into west/west-central Texas. Multiple impulses/perturbations emanating from the mid-upper closed low will interact with the surface low and nearby frontal boundaries resulting in increased chances for showers and thunderstorms, most of which will be north of our CWA (County Warning Area) (i.e. central and northern Texas). In addition to the shortwave energies tracking across portions of Texas Wednesday through Thursday, and possibly into Friday, increased humidity levels with dewpoints (Td) climbing into the mid to upper 60s will make for an increasingly buoyant environment. Computer models are suggesting precipitable water (PWAT) values rising to 1.70-1.80", which is +1 to +2 STDEVs above normal across our CWA Wednesday and Thursday with higher amounts (i.e. +2 to +3 STDEVs above normal) further to the north. Furthermore, sfc-based and most unstable CAPE (SBCAPE and MUCAPE) values rising to about 1,200 J/kg (highest along and west of IH-69C), mixed layer CAPE (MLCAPE) values rising up to 500 J/kg, steep mid-level lapse rates between 7-8 C/km, a moderately to very unstable air mass via Showalter values, and decent 0-6km bulk shear values in the 30s and 40s would suggest the increasing potential/risk for showers and thunderstorms over the Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley Wednesday and Thursday. At this point and time, have decided to go with the NBM which reflects a low grade (20-30%) chance for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday evening/night through Thursday evening/night. Not expecting any severe weather or flooding potential at this point. However, we will continue to monitor/fine tune the forecast and provide updates leading to this timeframe as the picture becomes clearer. On Friday, a cold frontal boundary will push through the forecast area. Along the frontal boundary, another low grade (15-25%) chance for showers and thunderstorms is possible across the region with the lowest chances west and highest chances along the coast. Higher chances further offshore. The cool frontal passage will result in drier and slightly cooler daytime highs compared to Wednesday/Thursday and closer to seasonable levels with values topping out in the lower to mid 70s most places. Dewpoint (Td) temperatures are expected to drop into the 40s and 50s. Friday night will be cooler than previous nigheights as well with overnight lows bottoming out into the upper 40s along the Northern Ranchlands to the mid 50s along the Rio Grande Valley. Upper 50s along South Padre Island (SPI). The weekend (Saturday and Sunday) or the start of February will open with temperatures attempting to warm back up again with the return of southerly flow and increasing heights/stronger ridging to the south. High temperatures on Saturday are forecast to mainly be in the 70s and on Sunday mainly in the low to mid 80s. Marine Issued at 235pm CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Tonight through Sunday night....Primarily small craft should exercise caution conditions will continue tonight into early Sunday morning across the Gulf waters and Laguna Madre due to increasing southerly to southeasterly winds. Seas will also build in response to increasing winds. We will post a low end small craft advisory for the offshore zones tonight. Higher seas may require an extension on Sunday. Monday through Saturday Night.....Favorable marine conditions with low to moderate winds and seas are expected Monday through Wednesday. Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions look to develop over the Gulf Waters by Wednesday evening/night and persist through Thursday with wave heigheights between 4-6 feet developing. By Thursday evening/night, SCEC conditions (Small Craft Should Exercise Caution) will continue for the nearshore waters, however, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions are expected to develop over the offshore waters. SCEC conditions (Small Craft Should Exercise Caution) look to continue through the rest of the period for the nearshore waters. For the offshore waters, SCEC conditions (Small Craft Should Exercise Caution) return for the offshore waters by Friday night/Saturday and persist through the rest of the period. Day-to-day chances for showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday evening/night through Friday evening/night for the Laguna Madre and Gulf Waters. NOAA Brownsville TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories TX...High Rip Current Risk from 6pm CST this evening through Sunday afternoon for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6pm this evening to 6am CST Sunday for GMZ170-175. |
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