Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield, TX Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Patchy Fog.|
|Thursday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming East 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Feet.|
|Thursday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet.|
|Friday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet.|
|Friday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Shifting East After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Saturday...North Winds 20 To 25 Knots Diminishing To 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Showers Likely In The Afternoon.|
|Saturday Night...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 8 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 9 Feet. Chance Of Showers.|
|Sunday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 8 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 9 Feet. Chance Of Showers.|
|Sunday Night...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Monday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Monday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Feet.|
| Synopsis for Baffin Bay to Rio Grande out 60 nm: GMZ100|
331 PM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021
Some brief adverse marine conditions will effect the nearshore and offshore coastal waters this afternoon with increased wave heights. Small craft should exercise caution into this evening before seas lower again. Light to moderate east to southeast winds and low to moderate seas through Friday. Stronger northeast to north winds and elevated seas Saturday and Sunday.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX
619pm CDT Wednesday April 14 2021
Short Term - Now through Thursday Night
A stalled frontal boundary will lie tenuously across the northern counties and near the CWA boundary in the short term. Conditions are more conducive for convection north of the boundary, with deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley remaining relatively quiet in the short term. The pressure gradient will remain weak, but light to moderate east to southeast winds will continue to pump moisture over the local area. Dew points will remain elevated in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Very isolated showers and even a thunderstorm will be remain possible through Thursday, especially across the northern Ranchlands. Otherwise, temperatures will stay slightly above average with Thursday highs in the mid to upper 80s near the coast to the mid 90s farther inland under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Overnight low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 70s under mostly cloudy to overcast skies and with patchy fog. Areas of fog are expected to develop along the coast again late this evening and overnight.
Long Term - Friday through Wednesday
The blocking pattern that's been responsible for preventing any airmass changes this week will begin to break down heading into the weekend. This is partly due to a trough digging into the Hudson Bay area, which will help to nudge the Great Lakes low further eastward, and partly due to a ridge sliding down the Northwest coastline. This will allow a shortwave to sweep across the Southern Plains this weekend and drive a rather potent late-season cold front through Deep South Texas on Friday night.
Friday will be the warmest day of the long term period with a south- southeasterly flow and temperatures topping out in the lower to upper 90s across Deep South Texas, and the upper 70s to near 80 along the coast. The cold front will then plunge through Deep South Texas late Friday night into early Saturday morning. Unlike the weak cold fronts we've received recently, this cold front will bring much cooler temperatures, showers and thunderstorms, and breezy to windy northerly winds. With decent instability ahead of the front, thunderstorms will likely form amidst the showers Friday night into Saturday. Depending on the timing of the main push of cold air advection, temperatures will likely continue to fall through late morning or early afternoon on Saturday. An overrunning pattern of warm, moist air over the dense cooler airmass will allow showers to stick around through Sunday morning. While Quantitative Precipitation Forecast has come down slightly from the previous package, rainfall totals may still reach a couple of tenths of an inch across the area. Along with the persistent showers, northerly winds and cooler temperatures will persist for a couple of days behind the front, allowing below average temperatures to persist through the end of the long term period...even with a warming trend as weak ridging settles into the area and temperatures attempt to climb back to normal by mid to late week.
MARINE: Now through Thursday Night...Light to moderate southeast winds and low to moderate seas will prevail through Thursday night as a lax pressure gradient covers the Northwest Gulf. Areas of moderate fog will be possible along the coast tonight and Thursday night and could persist well into daylight hours.
Friday through Monday
Marine conditions will generally start out favorable on Friday (except for some possible patchy fog), but will quickly deteriorate behind a cold front that's expected to plunge through the lower Texas coastal waters late Friday night into Saturday morning. Small Craft Advisory conditions will likely be needed due to the strong northerly winds and building seas through the weekend. In addition to these hazardous conditions, showers and thunderstorms will likely reduce the visibility at times, and present a lightning threat Friday night into Saturday. Beyond this weekend, winds and seas will begin to subside slightly.
NOAA Brownsville TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories