Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield, TX Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southeast Late. Seas 2 Feet Or Less.|
|Tuesday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 Feet Or Less.|
|Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 Feet Or Less Building To 3 To 5 Feet After Midnight.|
|Wednesday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 7 Feet.|
|Wednesday Night...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet.|
|Thursday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 7 Feet.|
|Thursday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 7 Feet.|
|Friday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots Shifting Southeast In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Friday Night...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Saturday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 7 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Saturday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Northeast 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
Synopsis for Baffin Bay to Rio Grande out 60 nm: GMZ100|
357 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019
A weak front pushed across the region bringing a brief wind shift out of the north northwest earlier today. Favorable marine conditions are expected along the lower Texas Coastline through the early week. A strengthening surface low across the desert southwest will help to tighten the pressure gradient across the region, resulting in increased onshore flow and building seas. Hazardous marine conditions are expected from mid to late week.
Area Forecast Discussion|
...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX
627pm CST Monday Nov 18 2019
Short Term - Now through Tuesday night
After morning fog across the eastern half of the region, mostly sunny skies have prevailed today with temperatures warming into the upper 70s and low 80s despite passage of a decaying frontal boundary this morning. Winds will remain light as broad surface high pressure is situated atop the state but do anticipate for the winds to gradually turn back out of the east-southeast into tonight.
The main concern during the short term period will be the return of fog during the overnight hours tonight into Tuesday morning. The winds will become near calm and variable overnight with minimum dew point depressions and temperatures falling to near or below the minimal dewpoint observed during the day (crossover temperatures). Current SREF model guidance has a strong signal for fog across the region, with the highest probabilities indicated across the central counties of Deep South Texas. Dense fog with visibilities at or below 1/4 of a mile will be possible, especially across any favored low spots. A Dense Fog Advisory could be needed but will elect to pass this on to the next shift for possible issuance.
After the fog erodes on Tuesday morning, expect another warm and mostly sunny day across the region with afternoon highs again reaching up into the low 80s as mid-level ridging sits atop the area. Winds start to uptick Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, especially near the coast, as the surface high pushes to the east and the pressure gradient tightens with a developing storm system across the inter-mountain west and the southwest US.
Long Term - Wednesday through Monday
Low to mid level moisture will increase across southern and eastern portions of the state Wednesday into Wednesday night ahead of the 500mb low/trough across the southwest United States. Still some minor differences between the global models in the future track of the upper level trough moving into the southern plains Friday and the GFS continues to bring a cold front through south Texas faster than the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Fri evening. Expect very warm and breezy conditions across the CWA Wednesday and early Thursday before the front approaches the area Friday. Temperatures will be near normal to slightly above normal Wednesday through Friday before cooler air advects into the Rio Grande Valley Fri night into Saturday. Will continue to mention a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday into Fri night before the convection becomes elevated Fri night. Rain chances should diminish Saturday as drier and cooler air filter into deep south Texas. Below normal temperatures will prevail through the weekend before returning to near normal early next week as an onshore flow returns late Sunday and increases Monday.
Marine - Now through Tuesday night
Favorable marine conditions start the short term period with light winds and low seas. Expect winds to gradually return out of the east and then eventually from out of the southeast Monday night. The southeasterly winds will start to pick up late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night as the pressure gradient strengthens along the lower Texas coast due to a strengthening storm system out west. As a response, seas start to gradually build Tuesday night.
Wednesday through Saturday...Moderate to strong south to southeast winds will prevail across the coastal waters Wednesday as surface low pressure across the lee side of the Rockies and high pressure across the eastern Gulf of Mexico provide a strong pressure gradient across the lower Texas coast. Small craft advisories will likely be needed for the bay waters and offshore waters Wednesday and offshore waters Wednesday night. The pressure gradient will remain strong across the lower Texas coast Thursday and moderate to strong south to southeast winds will continue across the coastal waters with small craft advisories likely again for both the Laguna Madre and offshore. The pressure gradient should begin to weaken Thurs night as a cold front moves into northwest Texas. Will likely need small craft advisories offshore Thurs night for seas as winds fall below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria. Light to moderate south to southwest winds will prevail across the western Gulf of Mexico Friday before shifting to the north and increasing Fri night in the wake of the cold front moving offshore Fri evening. Small craft advisories will be needed in the wake of the front. Moderate to strong north to northeast winds Fri night will decrease slightly Saturday as surface high pressure settles across southwest Texas Sat afternoon. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for offshore waters will likely be needed Saturday for high seas.
NOAA Brownsville TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories