Marine Weather Net

Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield, TX Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

SE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

SATURDAY

SE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

SATURDAY NIGHT

SE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

SUNDAY

SE
WINDS
20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ155 Forecast Issued: 422 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024

Tonight...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Wave Detail: East 4 Feet At 8 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.
Saturday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots Late In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 5 Feet. Wave Detail: East 5 Feet At 8 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Until Late Afternoon.
Saturday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet, Occasionally To 9 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 6 Feet At 8 Seconds.
Sunday...Southeast Winds Around 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet, Occasionally To 9 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 6 Feet At 7 Seconds.
Sunday Night...Southeast Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 6 To 9 Feet, Occasionally To 11 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 8 Feet At 8 Seconds.
Monday...South Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 6 To 9 Feet, Occasionally To 11 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 8 Feet At 8 Seconds.
Monday Night...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet, Occasionally To 9 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Late In The Evening. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms After Midnight.
Tuesday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Becoming Northwest Early In The Afternoon, Then Becoming North Late In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms Until Late Afternoon, Then A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Late In The Afternoon.
Tuesday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming Around 10 Knots After Midnight. Seas 4 To 5 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Early In The Evening. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.
Wednesday...Northeast Winds Around 10 Knots, Becoming East In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Feet.
Wednesday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
159pm CDT Fri Nov 1 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TER
Marine
.SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 153pm CDT Fri Nov 1 2024

Mildly unsettled weather is expected through the short term. The stalled front located north of the CWA (County Warning Area) is retreating, providing lift for scattered showers across the area. In conjunction with the sea breeze, isolated to scattered showers are expected to continue into this evening. Satellite derived PWATs (Precipitable Waters) of ~1.8" are being observed over the area (90th percentile of climatology), and will remain elevated through much of Saturday. Deterministic models don't agree when or how much of this moisture will evacuate (back to PWATs (Precipitable Waters) 1.5", which is just shy of 75th percentile of climatology) aside from by the end of the short term period before more moisture may surge in.

The increased cloud cover from showers and influx of moisture being advected northward will modulate high temperatures today. High temperatures for the area remain warm and above normal for this time of year, with highs today and tomorrow ranging from mid 80s to lower 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s. There is a moderate risk of rip currents for the period. Forecast guidance for water levels at South Padre Island are not forecast to reach Coastal Flood Statement criteria, however, they are close and will be monitored by following shifts

Long Term
(Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 153pm CDT Fri Nov 1 2024

Key Messages:

- An unsettled weather pattern will bring additional rain chances early next week.

- A cold front will arrive on Tuesday, which will result in seasonable temperatures for early November.

- Increased winds and building seas will result in minor coastal flooding issues and an increased risk of rip currents along the Lower Texas beaches early next week.

By the start of the long term period, a strong mid-level trough and associated surface features centered over the western US will translate across the Central Plains early next week. This will send a cold front southward towards Deep South Texas by Tuesday, before weakening and/or becoming nearly stationary across the region. Prior to the arrival of the cold front (which is not expected to bring a drastic cool down...), persistent low level southerly flow will increase in response to a tightening pressure gradient. As a result, expect breezy winds around 15-20 MPH on Sunday and Monday ahead of the frontal boundary, with gusts upwards of 25 MPH. This will also allow for a steady influx of precipitable water along the immediate coast, with values ranging from 1.5-1.75 inches.

Most guidance indicates the cold front will approach the Northern Ranchlands and Rio Grande Valley sometime Tuesday afternoon, before becoming stationary somewhere across the region. There should be sufficient moisture content, instability, and forcing for ascent to result in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of the cold front early Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon, with the best precipitation chances along and west of US-281.

There is still some uncertainty on whether the stalled boundary will retreat northward as a warm front on Wednesday or whether weak coastal troughing will set up near the region, but there should hopefully be some clarity over the next few days. Coastal troughing could result in some low precipitation chances along the immediate coast, but most precipitation chances reside over the Gulf waters with this forecast package. Otherwise, the cold front is expected to bring cooler mornings with lows ranging from the upper 50s across the Northern Ranchlands to upper 60s across the Rio Grande Valley, and highs mostly in the 80s region wide.

For the Lower Texas beaches, coastal flooding issues and an increased risk of rip currents may arise Sunday through early next week as winds and seas build in response to the aforementioned system. We should start to see favorable conditions towards the middle to end of the week.

Marine
Issued at 153pm CDT Fri Nov 1 2024

Tonight through Saturday night...Showers and thunderstorms are moving south over the waters this afternoon, and could bring gusty winds and choppy seas within the showers. Showers are expected to clear up after sunrise, though a few stragglers aren't out of the question. Southeasterly flow through the short term will begin to increase Saturday afternoon and overnight, bringing the possibility of Small Craft Exercise Caution to the cards.

Sunday through next Friday...Breezy southeast winds will prevail through Monday night in response to a tightening pressure gradient as a cold front approaches from the north. Seas will build in response, which will likely result in Small Craft Advisory conditions through at least Tuesday. Rain/storm chances will also increase late Monday into Tuesday with the approaching cold front, but should come to an end by Wednesday.

NOAA Brownsville TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...None. GM...None.