Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
|This Afternoon...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
|Tonight...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
|Sunday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet In The Morning, Then 1 Foot Or Less.
|Sunday Night...Northeast Winds Around 5 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Or Less.
|Monday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Or Less.
|Monday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Or Less.
|Tuesday...Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Or Less.
|Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
|Wednesday...South Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. A Chance Of Showers, Mainly In The Morning. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.
| Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
936am EST Sat Mar 2 2024
Issued at 931am EST Sat Mar 2 2024
High level clouds associated with convection over the Gulf continue to stream across the area this morning as a mid level trough approaches the FL peninsula. As additional impulses aloft move across the area today combined with diurnal heating and the stationary frontal boundary draped to the north of the area, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop with overall greatest coverage through the remainder of the afternoon expected across the Nature Coast. However, there may be another uptick in activity by mid evening associated with the sea breeze collision which looks to occur just east of the area. While low level shear looks weak, 0-6 km shear values are around 30 kts so a few stronger storms capable of some gusty winds and small hail will be possible but greatest chances may occur towards the eastern side of the peninsula as the west coast sea breeze pushes inland. Other than some adjustments to Probability of Precipitation for the remainder of the day based on recent hi-res guidance, the ongoing forecast remains in good shape.
Upper shortwave trough over the W Gulf is ejecting a series of vort maxes through the C and NE Gulf producing showers and thunderstorms early this morning. This activity is expected to move over the area today with showers and a few thunderstorms with highest rain chances N of I-4.
The shortwave is expected to slowly move off the NE FL coast Sunday then near the Carolinas Monday while upper energy continues to wrap around the low over the state for rounds of mainly afternoon showers and storms with highest rain chances over inland areas Sunday and again Monday. Temps generally around to slightly above seasonal normals.
Additional shortwaves and upper energy to move through the southern stream jet with weak surface features moving through the Deep South to keep rain chances in the area through mid week. Minor ridging from the N Carib nudges into S FL with warming temps and lower Probability of Precipitation most zones except N FL late in the week and into next weekend.
A weak pressure gradient will keep generally light winds and slight seas over the Eastern Gulf water through the weekend and into Monday. Expect periods of showers and isolated storms as well with the highest chance over the northeastern Gulf that may briefly elevate winds and seas. A frontal system is expected to move N or the region mid week with winds and seas shifting southerly as rain chances continue.
Abundant low level moisture and increasing rain chances are expected to remain in place through the weekend and into next week, with some patchy fog possible in the mornings.
NOAA Tampa FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.