Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Northeast Winds Around 10 Knots Then Becoming East Around 15 Knots After Midnight. Seas 2 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms Toward Morning.|
|Sunday...East Winds Around 15 Knots Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 2 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Sunday Night...Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 Feet Or Less. A Chance Of Showers And A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Monday...South Winds Around 5 Knots Then Becoming West Around 10 Knots Late In The Afternoon. Seas 2 Feet Or Less. A Chance Of Showers And A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Monday Night...West Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 Feet Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening.|
|Tuesday...Northwest Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 Feet Or Less.|
|Tuesday Night...Northwest Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 Feet Or Less.|
|Wednesday...West Winds Around 5 Knots Then Becoming Southwest Around 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 2 Feet Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Wednesday Night...South Winds Around 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Thursday...Southwest Winds Around 15 Knots Then Becoming West Late In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas To 8 Feet. Showers Likely And A Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
| Gulf coastal waters from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River out 60 NM - GMZ800|
850 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021
High pressure over the southeast states slips off the mid-Atlantic coast Sunday and continues east while stretching back to the Gulf of Mexico. By midweek this high pressure settles south of the waters as a cold front approaches the eastern Gulf Wednesday night with increasing winds and seas starting Thursday with advisory conditions possible.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
843pm EDT Sat Oct 23 2021
The rather dry pattern of late looks to be coming to at least a brief end Sunday into Monday as latest models have continued to increase the moisture/rain chances as a weak upper level shortwave moves across the northern gulf. Most recent GFS has precipitable water rapidly increasing to over 2 inches from southeast to northwest during the day Sunday covering most of the area by evening. This combined with some ascent ahead of the shortwave and daytime heating should lead to scattered to numerous showers and possibly a few thunderstorms spreading across much of the region during the afternoon and evening hours. Have tweaked the PoPs some overnight and Sunday, otherwise remainder of forecast looks on track at this time.
.Prev /issued 231pm EDT Sat Oct 23 2021/
A Canadian upper trough across the eastern seaboard shifts out over the Atlantic tonight and dampens out Sun. Nearly zonal/west-southwest flow aloft FL and much of the Gulf of Mexico continues as a short wave trough tracks over the western and central Gulf coast. At the surface high pressure centered in the southeast US treks to offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday while ridging back to the central Gulf coast. This will turn the lower level flow from northeast and east to southeasterly.
The west-southwesterly flow aloft along with lower level flow becoming east then southeasterly will spread moisture rich air across most of the area by Sunday afternoon...with PWAT (Precipitable Water) values becoming in excess of 2 inches. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue.nue with mainly high and mid clouds. Currently a few showers are pushing into the southern counties and this will continue.nue through the rest of the afternoon with scattered coverage. Convection shifts offshore this the evening and comes to an end. Then on Sunday showers form late morning in the south and transition northward during the day with increased coverage of showers along with a few storms.
From Mon-Sat: Aloft...the short wave trough slides across the state to the Atlantic Monday as ridging builds north from the western Gulf of Mexico. This ridging tracks east to the southeast US coast by Thu as a robust low forms in the central plains and drops into the mid or lower Mississippi valley. This low then moves to the eastern seaboard by late Sat. At the surface...the ridging from the Atlantic slowly settles south of the area by midweek as a surface low with attendant cold front slips in the north-central Gulf coast. This low and front track across the eastern states to the Atlantic by Sat.
Deep moisture continues Monday with scattered showers and some storms. The moisture begins to diminish Tuesday and part of Wednesday with lower rain chances. But the approaching upper trough and front will bump moisture amounts back and also provide adequate energy for showers and thunderstorms Thu-Fri. A few storms may become strong along with a isolated severe storm possible. The weekend begins with reduced rain chances and temperatures starting to trend down from seasonal.
For the the rest of the weekend winds generally northeast to east around 10 knots although evening surges may bump winds up to 15 knots. Winds shift to the west early next week then southwesterly around midweek at 15 knots or less. An approaching cold front will bring hazardous winds and seas staring Thu.
Moisture will be more than adequate to preclude any low RH concerns for the next days. Locally high dispersions are expected Sun.
NOAA Tampa FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.