Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound Marine Forecast
|Today...West Winds Around 10 Knots. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.|
|Tonight...Northwest Winds Around 5 Knots Then Becoming North After Midnight. Bay And Inland Waters Smooth.|
|Saturday...Northeast Winds Around 5 Knots Then Becoming West Around 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop. Isolated Thunderstorms. Scattered Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Saturday Night...Northwest Winds Around 10 Knots Then Becoming Northeast In The Late Evening And Overnight. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop. Isolated Thunderstorms In The Evening.|
|Sunday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Increasing To Around 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Bay And Inland Waters A Moderate Chop. Numerous Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Sunday Night...Northeast Winds Around 15 Knots. Bay And Inland Waters A Moderate Chop. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms In The Evening.|
|Monday...Northeast Winds Around 20 Knots. Bay And Inland Waters Choppy. Isolated Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Monday Night...Northeast Winds Around 20 Knots Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots In The Late Evening And Overnight. Bay And Inland Waters Choppy.|
|Tuesday...Northeast Winds Around 15 Knots. Bay And Inland Waters A Moderate Chop.|
| Gulf coastal waters from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River out 60 NM - GMZ800|
356 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2020
High pressure will build over the area as a weak cold front moves through. Southwest to west winds tonight will veer to northeast and increase to near advisory levels early next week. Showers and thunderstorms are possible through the weekend which could cause locally hazardous marine conditions.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
821am EDT Fri September 18 2020
.Prev /issued 346am EDT Fri September 18 2020/
A more amplified pattern is setting up across the CONUS. With a trough in our region, an attendant cold front is trying to slowly crawill southward today. Looking at the 3AM surface observational data, winds are still holding west to southwest all the way up into Citrus County. The northwesterly obs really don't appear until north of our area, in places like Dixie County. This would support the surface front being situated somewhere over Citrus county and extending up to the northwest into North Florida. This is a rather weak front, but nevertheless is acting like a shovel to force the warm and moist surface air upward, creating showers and even a couple rumbles of thunder where this ascent is being maximized.
As we go through the day, showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop ahead of the front with a warm, moist, and relatively unstable airmass remaining. With the front continuing to drift southward, the greatest rain chances lie across Southwest Florida. Behind the front, rain chances begin to drop for the rest of today and overnight with slightly drier and more stable air. Setting in. However, this won't last as rain chances return for tomorrow with moisture and instability increasing. The best chances look to miss the coast for Saturday. With a rather messy synoptic pattern, ascent will be favored over the Gulf and also over the eastern half of the peninsula, spreading into portions of our interior counties. Winds should also begin to increase out of the northeast thanks to a tighter gradient.
As the upper-level trough continues to propagate eastward, a favorable atmospheric environment should allow the axis to dig and become negatively tilted. This should reinforce slightly drier and more comfortable conditions for next week, along with a strong pressure gradient and gusty winds for Monday into Tuesday. As the high builds over us along with the drier air and subsequent subsidence, winds will begin to relax and rain chances become lower. With calmer winds, more efficient cooling will have a potential opportunity to take place, leading to low temperatures dropping a few degrees by mid-week. This should make for some nice mornings. We will still warm up during the day, but with lower dewpoints, conditions should feel a little nicer through the day.
Some showers and storms remain possible across coastal waters this morning but should taper off from north to south through the day after a weak frontal boundary passes. Winds will shift from the WSW to the WNW as this occurs. Showers and storms remain in the forecast through the weekend before rain chances begin to lower next week as high pressure settles in along with slightly cooler air. The slightly cooler air will create a stronger pressure gradient, and winds and seas will begin to increase early next week, likely to advisory criteria by Monday.
A weak front passes through today, creating showers and thunderstorms as it does. Rain chances begin to lower behind the front, but do not go away. Early next week, cooler and slightly drier air will settle in. This will likely lead to gusty winds and higher dispersions, but RH values should remain above critical thresholds.
Prev /issued 149am EDT Fri September 18 2020/
AVIATION... With a frontal boundary draped across the Florida peninsula, an enhanced region for ascent exists allowing showers to develop. Northern TAF sites have been and will continue to experience temporary reductions in flight categories for the next several hours. Showers, and later thunderstorms will remain around through mid-afternoon, before conditions quiet this evening with a light north wind.
NOAA Tampa FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.