Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming East Late This Evening And Overnight. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. Isolated Thunderstorms. Scattered Showers Until Early Morning, Then Isolated Showers Late. |
| Wednesday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming South In The Afternoon. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. Isolated Thunderstorms. Scattered Showers In The Morning, Then Numerous Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Wednesday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. Numerous Showers With Isolated Thunderstorms. |
| Thursday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Southwest In The Afternoon. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. Numerous Showers And Scattered Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Widespread Showers And Numerous Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Thursday Night...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. Widespread Showers And Numerous Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Numerous Showers With Isolated Thunderstorms After Midnight. |
| Friday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. Numerous Showers With Isolated Thunderstorms. |
| Friday Night...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. Isolated Thunderstorms. Numerous Showers, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Saturday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Northwest In The Afternoon. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. Scattered Showers With Isolated Thunderstorms. |
| Saturday Night...North Winds Around 10 Knots. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. Isolated Thunderstorms. Scattered Showers, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Sunday...North Winds Around 10 Knots, Becoming Northwest In The Afternoon. Bay And Inland Waters A Moderate Chop. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 310pm EDT Tuesday May 30 2023 Issued at 256pm EDT Tuesday May 30 2023 High level clouds associated with convection over the Gulf continue to move across the region today but the main focus for precipitation activity across our area will be for our southern counties where moisture quality is greatest and the sea breeze continues to push inland. However, since PWATs (Precipitable Waters) are generally in the 1.2-1.4 inch range from I-4 and areas north, expecting the northern half of our area to remain dry through this evening. Meanwhile, the latest KTBW VAD wind profile data shows winds aloft already shifting to the SW as an upper level trough in the Gulf slowly approaches the region. This will lead to efficient moisture advection with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) surging to near or over 2 inches by Wednesday with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing area-wide in the afternoon and evening hours. Rainfall chances will increase even further by Thursday and Friday as the aforementioned upper trough gradually closes off to an upper low and continues its slow approach to the Florida peninsula. With modest height falls and abundant moisture remaining across the region, widespread showers and storms are expected both days. WPC also has a Marginal risk of excessive rainfall in effect for Thursday given the sufficient forcing and high coverage of precipitation activity, but would expect that any flooding concerns would be isolated at most and likely focused in low lying/poor drainage areas given the rainfall deficits across much of our area. Regardless, this rainfall should be mostly beneficial and hopefully bring significant relief to the ongoing drought conditions across much of west central Florida. While the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) may be a bit slower than the GFS (Global Forecast System) still on when this system will depart the area, overall there has been better agreement with the 30/12Z guidance. It appears that by Saturday this system should generally open to an open wave and shift into the southwest Atlantic as an associated coastal low quickly shifts off to the northeast. As this system departs, drier air is expected to move in but enough moisture should linger to still allow for scattered showers and storms for the weekend. By early next week, rain chances should become even lower as surface high pressure builds in from the north, but models differ on the position of this feature with the ECMWF bringing the high across Florida but the GFS keeps it out over the Atlantic. As a result, will lean on a consensus blend of Probability of Precipitation for now which yields low end rain chances into next week. Marine Issued at 256pm EDT Tuesday May 30 2023 Mostly east-northeast winds tonight into Wednesday with winds around 8-12 kts throughout the day. However, widely scattered showers and storms are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening ahead of a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico and any storms could lead to locally hazardous marine conditions. Rainfall chances then increase even further through the end of the week with scattered to numerous showers and storms possible across the Gulf waters at any time. Winds will generally remain out of the east-northeast under 15 kts through the end of the week with no headlines expected. Fire Weather Issued at 256pm EDT Tuesday May 30 2023 An increase in moisture ahead of a disturbance in the Gulf will lead to increasing rain chances and RH values in the coming days with widely scattered showers and storms possible Wednesday afternoon with precipitation activity becoming more widespread by late week. As a result of the wet upcoming weather pattern, the fire danger is expected to remain low through the remainder of the week. Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 6 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 6 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology NOAA Tampa FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...None. Gulf waters...None. |
Tampa Bay FL Radar
Gulf Radar