Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Southeast Winds Around 5 Knots Becoming South Around 10 Knots Toward Morning. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop. Showers Likely Early In The Evening. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. A Chance Of Showers In The Late Evening And Overnight.|
|Monday...Southwest Winds Around 10 Knots. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Monday Night...West Winds Around 10 Knots. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening.|
|Tuesday...Northwest Winds Around 10 Knots. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop.|
|Tuesday Night...Northwest Winds Around 10 Knots. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop.|
|Wednesday...North Winds Around 5 Knots Becoming West 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Bay And Inland Waters Smooth.|
|Wednesday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming South 10 To 15 Knots. Bay And Inland Waters A Light To Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Thursday...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Increasing To Around 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Bay And Inland Waters Choppy. Showers Likely And A Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday Night...West Winds Around 20 Knots Diminishing To Around 15 Knots In The Late Evening And Overnight. Bay And Inland Waters Choppy. A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers And A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Friday...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Bay And Inland Waters Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
| Gulf coastal waters from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River out 60 NM - GMZ800|
415 PM EDT Sun Oct 24 2021
High pressure across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico slowly settles south of the waters Monday. Another area of high pressure then builds in from the north and tracks east as a strong cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico with thunderstorms and increasing winds and seas. The front is expected to pass through the eastern Gulf waters during the last half of the week with hazardous marine conditions developing.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
238pm EDT Sunday Oct 24 2021
A short wave trough tracking along the northern Gulf coast this afternoon slides over the GA/FL line tonight and out over the Atlantic Mon. This allows a slightly drier and more stable west to northwest flow to eventually work in. At the surface Atlantic high pressure moves east with ridging initially extending over the state to the Gulf of Mexico slowly settling south of the area by Mon. An east to southeast low level flow becomes southwest to west. Moisture rich air...PWAT (Precipitable Water) values in excess of 2 inches...prevails over night then shifts away to the east and southeast Mon.
Considerable mid and high cloudiness will continue.nue as large areas of showers along with a thunderstorm or two on the Gulf transition onshore. The timing has been a bit slower with slightly less coverage than was expected at this time. However anticipate showers with a few storms to fill in and continue into early Monday morning. Then as the short wave trough moves east and takes the bulk of the moisture with it the rain chances begin to decrease.
Tuesday - Sun: Ridging aloft builds over the plains states from the western Gulf of Mexico then slides east...flattening over Atlantic coastal waters Thu. Meanwhile an upper trough in the Pacific Northwest slides southeastward and deepens into a low over the Mid- Mississippi Valley...with troughing down over the Gulf of Mexico. This low tracks across the eastern US Fri-Sat then opens into a trough over Atlantic coastal waters Sun. High pressure over the middle US builds down into the Gulf and shifts to the eastern seaboard Thu...in response to a surface reflection of the upper closed low with a trailing cold front moving from the south- central to the Mid-atlantic states by Sat. This low and front lift up into New England Sunday as high pressure begins moving into the Gulf region.
There will be a brief lull in rainfall Tuesday but the approaching front will ramp up moisture with rain chances returning Wednesday afternoon and continuing until the weekend when precipitation tapers off Sat and ends Sun. The current timing of the front and upper level troughiness will support numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms Thu into early Fri. A few showers could become strong with an isolated sever storm possible. Drier and cool air filters in for Sunday with temperatures 3 to 5 degrees below seasonal.
Winds/seas generally 15 knots/3 feet or less through mid week...but higher near thunderstorms. Winds switch from easterly to westerly as high pressure exits south and another area high pressure moves in from the north.
A robust front with high pressure in it's wake track through Thu and Fri with winds and seas increasing to hazardous conditions. Winds will become 20 knots or higher and seas 6 feet or higher... occasionally up to 10 feet.
Moisture will be more than adequate to preclude any low RH concerns for the next few days. A slight uptick in wind speed Tuesday will result in some higher dispersions Tue.
NOAA Tampa FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.