Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Tonight...East Winds Around 5 Knots. Bay And Inland Waters Smooth. Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms Ending By Midnight. |
| Sunday...East Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming West 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Bay And Inland Waters Smooth. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Sunday Night...North Winds Around 5 Knots. Bay And Inland Waters Smooth. Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Monday...Northeast Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming Northwest 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Bay And Inland Waters Smooth. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Numerous Showers And Scattered Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Monday Night...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming East Overnight. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. Scattered Thunderstorms. Numerous Showers, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Tuesday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots Late In The Afternoon. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. Scattered Thunderstorms. Scattered Showers In The Morning, Then Widespread Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Tuesday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay And Inland Waters A Moderate Chop. Widespread Showers And Scattered Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight. |
| Wednesday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Bay And Inland Waters Choppy. Numerous Showers And Scattered Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Wednesday Night...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Bay And Inland Waters Choppy. Numerous Showers And Scattered Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight. |
| Thursday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay And Inland Waters A Moderate Chop. Numerous Showers And Scattered Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 745pm EDT Sat September 12 2026 Issued at 745pm EDT Sat September 12 2026 Convection is beginning to wind down with some areas of stratiform rain persisting. The exception to this is across southwest Florida where a westward moving outflow boundary is helping to Probability of Precipitation scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. All of this precipitation should come to an end on land by midnight with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing over the coastal waters overnight. The abundant moisture will remain across the region Sunday and with a light westerly flow in place this will favor isolated to scattered convection during the mid to late morning into early afternoon near the coast moving/developing inland during the rest of the afternoon and evening. Overall the current forecast looks ok with no changes needed at this time. Issued at 157pm EDT Sat September 12 2026 Weak upper-level ridging dominates across Florida as a shortwave propagates to the north through the Tennessee River Valley. The shortwave is advecting deep tropical moisture around the periphery of the ridge northward into the SE, fueling convective activity over the Northern Gulf, FL panhandle, and beyond. Closer to home, high pressure is still in control near the surface. A light background flow means that sea breeze boundaries can move with ease, propagating inland through the afternoon and evening and serving as a catalyst for thunderstorm development when coupled with the moist and conditionally unstable airmass that is in place across the Florida peninsula. The 12Z sounding came in with a PWAT (Precipitable Water) of 2.16 inches. Climatologically, this is above the 90th percentile, suggesting there is more than ample moisture to work with. Further analyzing the atmospheric profile, there is no appreciable dry air throughout the column. The winds are also very light, suggesting slow movement of storms that do form. That combination is favorable for heavy rainfall, and perhaps localized flooding in isolated locations. Given how there will likely be a few more boundary collisions (and thus more storms) in SWFL, this is where the threat remains the greatest. Some gusty winds of 40 to 50 mph are also possible across SWFL where ACARS soundings show slightly more dry air in the mid-levels (and thus greater DCAPE values approaching 1000 j/kg due to precipitation loading). That potential decreases farther north around Tampa Bay and across the Nature Coast. As the shortwave passes to the north and pulls away, the flow looks to become even lighter and more variable for Sunday and into Monday. However, the upper-level flow veers more WNW, suggesting that some slightly drier air might sneak in. So while showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast, the probability of actually seeing a thunderstorm - especially over the Nature Coast - is a little lower tomorrow. There are actually some indications that rain chances may remain lower through the first half of the week across the Nature Coast as an upper-level ridge settles to the north of Florida, favoring mid-level dry air advection. By mid-week, a retrograding upper-level low is forecast to arrive in our area from the Atlantic. While this would initially favor a drier pattern, if the low does indeed get west of the FL peninsula, this will almost certainly enhance rain chances across the area. Keeping the forecast conservative for now, though, to see how the setup evolves. It also favors a tighter pressure gradient, and thus breezy conditions over land. Hazardous marine conditions are expected to develop over coastal waters in response as well as seas build towards 5 to 8 feet. This unsettled pattern then looks to stick around for a bit. Trapped between ridging to the east and west, the low parks overhead and probably won't clear out until being swept up by a deeper trough that digs into the area more than a week from now. Until the low clears out, one can expect the unsettled pattern to continue. Marine Issued at 157pm EDT Sat September 12 2026 Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across coastal waters, especially to the north of Tarpon Springs. Hazardous winds and seas are possible in the vicinity. Otherwise, light winds for the next couple days support seas of two feet or less. As an upper-level low moves into the area mid-week, mariners should expect marine conditions to deteriorate. Winds of 20 to 30 knots, with some higher gusts, look increasingly likely by late week. This will favor building seas to at least 5 to 8 feet, if not higher. Additionally, thunderstorm activity may increase late in the week. This will be a hazardous combination for mariners, especially those operating small craft. Fire Weather Issued at 157pm EDT Sat September 12 2026 Ample moisture and humidity favors scattered showers and thunderstorms each day this week. Sunday and Monday look to be the "driest" days for the week; but thunderstorms are still expected. Given current conditions, there are no red flag concerns at this time. However, light winds through Monday favor low dispersion Hydrology Issued at 157pm EDT Sat September 12 2026 With pockets of heavy rainfall over the last couple of weeks, soils have begun to become more saturated in the areas where heavier rainfall has occurred. The most notable soil saturation has taken place across portions of SWFL, where once again there is a higher probability for heavier rainfall to occur. This favors a higher potential for localized flooding when compared to the rest of the region. It also means that a shorter duration of heavier rainfall may be capable of producing some flooding. Given the scattered nature of summertime convection, conditions are not uniformly saturated areawide. In fact, most areas outside SWFL have not yet seen soils reach saturation. Thus, outside urbanized areas and portions of SWFL, the overall threat for flooding remains low. Additionally, conditions continue to be monitored on some of the more rainfall-sensistive rivers mainly in SWFL. The most notable one with potential impacts is Horse Creek. The current forecast has the river reaching minor flood stage in the next several days. However, this is still contingent on the basin receiving nearly another inch or so of rainfall in the next 48 hours. If the rainfall misses the basin, then Horse Creek probably won't rise at all. This is true for other rivers in the area as well: if rainfall occurs in the basin, then the river will respond. If it misses, flows and thus current river stages should remain largely unchanged. Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 1 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 1 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology NOAA Tampa FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...None. Gulf waters...None. |
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