Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...Southwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: Southwest 3 Feet At 4 Seconds. |
| Tonight...Southwest Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Wave Detail: Southwest 4 Feet At 5 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight. |
| Sunday...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. Wave Detail: Southwest 3 Feet At 4 Seconds. Showers With Thunderstorms Likely In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Sunday Night...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: South 3 Feet At 5 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Monday...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Northwest 1 Foot At 3 Seconds And South 1 Foot At 5 Seconds. |
| Monday Night...Southwest Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Southwest 2 Feet At 4 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight. |
| Tuesday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet In The Morning, Then 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: Southwest 1 Foot At 4 Seconds, Becoming South 1 Foot At 4 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning. |
| Tuesday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: South 1 Foot At 3 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight. |
| Wednesday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming South In The Afternoon. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: South 1 Foot At 4 Seconds. |
| Wednesday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: South 1 Foot At 4 Seconds. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1246pm CDT Sat August 1 2026 .SHORT TERM... (Now through Monday) Issued at 1240pm CDT Sat August 1 2026 Weak "cold" front still looks to move into the area tonight before stalling near the coast or just offshore and dissipating tomorrow. As the boundary moves into the area, it will provide a focus for showers and storms, though convective coverage now looks to remain isolated to widely scattered for areas generally north of the I-10 corridor. As the front gets closer to the coast and interacts with deeper Gulf moisture, rain chances will be higher and result in greater convective coverage. For areas along/south of the I-10 corridor, will continue to advertise more scattered to numerous coverage with POPs in the 50-70% range. Timing-wise, the boundary should reach the I-10 corridor late tonight/early Sunday morning, sinking into the northern Gulf by midday. The setup doesn't look overly concerning for severe weather - especially since the bulk of the showers and storms should be located over the Gulf by the time we reach peak daytime heating. However, there is still at least some potential for a few strong storms during the morning hours across coastal areas. The main threats from any strong thunderstorms will be gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall. Speaking of rainfall, overall totals even near the coast will generally be less than one half inch, and for areas north of the I-10 corridor, totals are forecast to be less than a tenth of an inch. The bottom line: despite the higher rain chances, this front will not provide significant rainfall to most of the area. As the front sinks into the northern Gulf, rain chances even in coastal areas will drop off and drier air will begin moving into the area. The drier air will remain in place to start the work week, which should keep afternoon heat index values near or even slightly below normal for this time of year - topping out in the upper 90s to just over 100 degrees Sunday/Monday afternoons. Long Term (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 1240pm CDT Sat August 1 2026 The drier air will remain in place across the area for a couple days, but low level winds will turn onshore again by midweek bringing deeper moisture back into the area. NBM appears to be a bit overdone with daily showers/storms during the midweek timeframe given forecast precipitable water values should remain close to the 25th percentile through at at least Wed, so barring any changes in the expected moisture availability, adjustments to the Probability of Precipitation forecast midweek are likely with future updates as these time frames move into the short term forecast. Any showers and storms that do develop will generally be focused along sea/lake breeze boundaries. Going into the latter part of the work week, there is uncertainty regarding a slug of tropical moisture possibly moving westward through the northern Gulf. Currently the operational GFS (Global Forecast System) is the most bullish with this moisture, indicating PW values (Precipitable Water values) on Friday of around 2.25 inches, which is around the 90th percentile for this time of year. Obviously that's quite the ramp up compared to the previous day when PW values (Precipitable Water values) are forecast to be around or slightly below normal. Should note that the operational GFS is also significantly higher than its ensemble mean, which indicates near normal PW values (Precipitable Water values) by Friday. That being said, while it's not out of the question, the operational GFS solution does appear overdone. On the other hand, the Euro ensemble mean indicates near to slightly below normal PW values (Precipitable Water values) persisting even into Friday. Assuming reality is somewhere in the vicinity of "near normal moisture," would expect to see typical afternoon showers and storms Friday. However, if the wetter solution pans out, then there is at least some potential for higher convective coverage than currently advertised. Marine Issued at 1240pm CDT Sat August 1 2026 Moderate west to southwesterly flow will persist today and will strengthen further tonight with winds forecast to reach the 20 to 25 knot range across most of the waters. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect tonight for all coastal waters except Lakes Pontchartrain, Maurepas, and Salvador and Cataouatche. A weak cold front will provide a focus for scattered to numerous showers and storms, mainly Sunday as it sinks through the coastal waters. As the front stalls over the northern Gulf and washes out the weaker pressure gradient will allow winds to relax again. By the second half of the workweek, winds will become more southeasterly as the local area becomes located more on the western periphery of the surface high. Seas will generally be 2 to 4 feet nearshore and 3 to 5 feet offshore through Sunday night, but will otherwise be generally 1 to 3 feet. Locally higher winds and seas will also be possible in the vicinity of any thunderstorms. NOAA New Orleans LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7pm this evening to 10am CDT Sunday for GMZ532-534>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7pm this evening to 10am CDT Sunday for GMZ534>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577. |
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