Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet Late This Morning, Then 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: Southwest 1 Foot At 4 Seconds. |
| Tonight...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet In The Evening, Then 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: South 1 Foot At 5 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening. |
| Tuesday...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: West 1 Foot At 5 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning. |
| Tuesday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming North 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Seas 1 Foot Or Less, Then Around 2 Feet After Midnight. Wave Detail: South 1 Foot At 6 Seconds, Becoming Northwest 1 Foot At 5 Seconds And South 1 Foot At 5 Seconds. A Chance Of Thunderstorms. Showers. |
| Wednesday...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet, Building To 4 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet In The Afternoon. Wave Detail: East 4 Feet At 4 Seconds, Becoming East 5 Feet At 6 Seconds. Showers Likely With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Wednesday Night...East Winds Around 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet. Wave Detail: East 6 Feet At 7 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Thursday...East Winds Around 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet. Wave Detail: East 6 Feet At 7 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. A Chance Of Showers, Mainly In The Morning. |
| Thursday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Wave Detail: East 5 Feet At 7 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Friday...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 4 Feet At 7 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Friday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 4 Feet At 6 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 605am CDT Monday Jun 1 2026 .SHORT TERM... (Now through Thursday) Issued at 205am CDT Monday Jun 1 2026 Given the rather lack of any strong synoptic feature and what in all aspects is a dirty ridge over the area, the forecast for today and tomorrow will be highly dependent on how things play out with multiple mesoscale features, boundaries, and convection complexes. Just to mention a few one is a current complex over southeastern KS moving towards southwestern MO. Does this begin to dissipate as some of the CAMs show or does it continue to on and begin to surge more southeast approaching the region this evening. Other concerns are any left over boundaries from yesterday's convection along with any other subtle boundaries that try to move in from central MS and southwestern AL that were identifiable on radar around 3-5z but not as much now. Also how much activity do we get along the seabreeze today and what if any impact there is with convection across the northern portions of the CWA (County Warning Area) this afternoon. How does a lake breeze moving north of Lake Pontchartrain interact with any convection (if there is any) moving south out of south-central and southwestern MS or convection moving north from coastal SELA. How does this activity play/interact/interfere with possible convection Tuesday. Do we get a stronger line of storms to develop over northern portions of the CWA late this afternoon moving south during the evening which could push an outflow boundary all the way to the coast and possibly causing convection on Tuesday to struggle which has looked like the more likely day of numerous storms. Do we see another MCS (Mesoscale Convective System, a complex of thunderstorms which becomes organized on a scale larger than the individual thunderstorms) develop to our far north try to work down into the area overnight Monday night/early Tuesday. That is just some of the concerns and forecast problems we are trying to resolve and the models have about half a dozen different outcomes and shift things around with each run. Given all of that confidence in the forecast is on the rather low side for the next 36 hours but we will try to give our best shot here. As mentioned earlier we are under what can basically be characterized as a dirty ridge. H5 hgheights are sitting around 588-590 dm which is on the higher end for this time of the year (75th to 90th percentile) and the h85 temps of 18-19C and h7 temps of near 9-10C today are both around the 90th percentile however they appear to cool a degree or two Tuesday to around 17-18C and 7-9C respectively which is does get below the 75th. This all would make convection a touch harder just looking at those but PWs will be near or even above 2" with GOES16 TPW measuring over 2.1" just off the SELA coast slowly sliding north. There Is also a very subtle weak mid level jet streak showing up in some of the more global models coming across the region late this afternoon and evening from northern Mexico and the TX Big Bend area. Looking at WV right there is a noticeable enhancement in the image coming from that location and that times out to be around 23/00z as it moves into the CWA. This isn't a strong impulse but given the lack of overwhelming suppression from the ridge and this feature actually able to cut right through it, the amount of moisture available, the likelihood of at least some convection developing today along any number of boundaries feel a little better we will see some decent convection across the northern portions of the CWA late this afternoon and likely persisting well into the evening. This is especially so if that MCS moving into southwestern MO and northern AR holds on long enough to drive an outflow boundary into southwestern MS. The other interesting and possibly worrisome concern is the potential for strong to severe storms. Again given the lack of any real setup/feature this is very much dependent on multiple things. However, given that we do have a ridge in place, the lack of a strong southerly/southeasterly winds in the LL which would typically lead to the seabreeze activating and surging norther earlier means convection likely holds off until at least midday if not early afternoon. That will likely lead to less cloud cover most of the day allowing us to heat up. Given dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 70s, highs in the lower 90s, and h5 temps expected to cool 2-3 degrees (around -6 to -7C from the -4C we had yesterday), this will lead to a rather unstable environment. Cape values could easily be around or over 4k J/kg while mid level lapse rates may range from 6.5 to 7.2 C/km. DCAPE is not overly impressive given the lack of any mid level dry air but is still right around 900-1k J/kg. This should lead to a couple strong storms with a few possibly becoming severe. The main concern is wind and wet microburst but can;t completely rule out some large hail, that said the freezing level is expected to be around 15.5k ft. So with that and the very high moisture content that will be in place it will take a rather potent storm to get some hail. Biggest concern for those strong to severe storms will be southwest MS and the adjacent FL parishes. Those storms should push south towards I-12 and depending on how great the coverage is may help to create a cold pool(a region of relatively cold air) allow them to or at least an outflow boundary to push south towards the coast. If that develops how strong the cold pool(a region of relatively cold air) is and how far south it drives it could have a significant say in convection Tuesday. That along with any possible MCS that develops to our north Monday evening. If there is a strong cold pool(a region of relatively cold air) from storms this afternoon/evening that drives towards the coast convection which looked highly likely Tuesday may be a little more difficult to develop. That said on thing that would work in favor of convection still developing is that we will likely have a good bit of time to try and recover. As the deep L/W trough over the Atlantic coast digs we will move under pure northerly flow overnight Monday becoming more northwesterly during the day Tuesday. This typically leads to convection developing much later in the day during the Summer (if convection develops). Given we will still have abundant moisture in place with PWs near 2" convection is still highly possible if not expected. Combine that with a weak backdoor cold front (which is currently stalled around KY/TN) we will have some support to get convection. The biggest concern with coverage and strength of convection for Tuesday is how much the area gets heavily impacted by convection from Monday afternoon through early Tuesday morning. If convection struggles more today and there is no MCS sending a strong cold pool(a region of relatively cold air) into the CWA overnight Monday/early Tuesday then the risk of strong to severe storms Tuesday could be greater than today. We will have a highly unstable environment in place again but this time would combine with an actual front pushing into the area and northerly/northwesterly flow. That would be more favorable for a few severe storms to develop. At this time Storm Prediction Center only has general thunder across the area for both today and Tuesday but would not rule out a few strong to severe storms mainly for the northern half of the CWA both this afternoon/evening and Tuesday afternoon. After the front moves through we will actually see slightly more pleasant conditions for early June. Slightly cooler LL temps will move in but much drier air will slide in during the day Wednesday with dewpoints possibly dropping into the mid to upper 50s across portions of the CWA, mainly southwestern MS adjacent LA parishes and northern portions of coastal MS. This would lead to some morning lows Thursday morning only a few degrees away from record lows however we will see if this actually plays out and those dewpoints actually can bottom out. /CAB/ Long Term (Thursday night through Sunday) Issued at 205am CDT Monday Jun 1 2026 Upper ridge is expected to be centered over Alabama Thursday evening. Any residual dry air is likely to be pushed to the east of the area Friday, with much of the area expected to have precipitable water values in excess of 2 inches for most or all of the weekend, which is well above the 90th percentile. While there appears to be no large scale forcing, with moisture so abundant, we'll likely see scattered showers and thunderstorms develop each day along outflow boundaries, lake and sea breezes as we reach convective temperatures, which will generally be in the mid 80s. The most favored times over land will be late morning through the afternoon, gradually waning toward sunset. Mid level lapse rates will be fairly weak and 500 mb temperatures pretty warm at -5 or -6C, so the threat of severe weather should be pretty low. However, the high moisture content will mean that heavy rain will be likely with storms that are able to sustain themselves for any length of time. As noted above, convective temperatures will generally be in the mid 80s, so high temperatures probably won't get much warmer than that. Overnight lows are likely to be in the 70s. /RW/ Marine Issued at 205am CDT Monday Jun 1 2026 A broad area of high pressure over the Gulf will continue to keep conditions over the waters relatively benign for a few more days. Winds will be light at 10 knots or less and seas will remain below 2 feet. The seabreeze cycle will lead to some variability in wind direction near the coast, and a few thunderstorms could fire up in relation to this seabreeze/landbreeze cycle. Any storms will be short-lived and will produce locally gusty winds and lightning. A weak backdoor cold front is still expected to slip into the waters Tuesday night into Wednesday. Winds will become more chaotic as it stalls over the waters but east of the MS Delta winds will briefly turn northeasterly and increase to 15 knots possibly even approaching 20 knots. Thunderstorm activity will be a bit more widespread as the front moves through, and a few stronger storms with high wind gusts could develop. By Thursday the front will washout and as a large area of high pressure becomes established over the southern Appalachians moderate onshore flow will return. /CAB/ NOAA New Orleans LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. |
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