Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island Marine Forecast
| Today...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 3 Feet At 7 Seconds. |
| Tonight...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 4 Feet At 7 Seconds. |
| Thursday...Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 4 Feet At 7 Seconds. |
| Thursday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 3 Feet At 6 Seconds. |
| Friday...Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 3 Feet At 6 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Friday Night...South Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 3 Feet At 6 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight. |
| Saturday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 2 Feet At 6 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Saturday Night...Southwest Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: South 2 Feet At 4 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Sunday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Southwest 2 Feet At 5 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Sunday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: South 2 Feet At 5 Seconds. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 554am CDT Wednesday April 22 2026 .SHORT TERM... (Now through Friday) Issued at 1126pm CDT Tuesday April 21 2026 No need to change precipitation numbers or location today. Thu on the other hand will be lowered a bit from 60% to around 40% for the eastern Atchafalaya, but placement still looks good. Dry air continues to move in keeping the area mostly void of precip. This continues for the next day or so. A strong sub inversion is quite evident at 900mb. This could lift to around 850mb but should remain deep. This inversion is not as noticeable to the west, so there is a chance of getting rain to the west. This area will move north of this ridging pattern Fri that has been holding persistant. Storms will break out to the NW where the best instability is located for Fri. Some of these could produce new storms on outflows, but we will have to see how that turns out to see if they can make it into our area as the dry mid level air remains strong but getting moistened very slowly. As we move deeper into spring and eventually summer, it is a good idea to keep in mind that any storms that develop will have a better chance of becoming strong or even severe. This could just an isolated basis most times, but with stronger heating, this starts to become a daily ritual when storms do form. Long Term (Friday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 1126pm CDT Tuesday April 21 2026 A noticeable trend towards a dry weekend advertised by the ensemble means, this includes all 3, the GFES, ECS, and CMCE. That isn't quite the case with the operational runs as all three have some rain mainly Saturday which is actually just before this portion of the forecast discussion but the rain could linger into the evening/overnight hours if it develops. Sunday through Tuesday the overwhelming majority of the guidance is dry and quite warm with the forecast explicitly showing highs hitting 90s degrees for the first time this season. Temperature wise NBM is in agreement with these warm temperatures and is actually a touch warmer in some locations. However, the NBM is still more optimistic with regards to rain especially on Sunday when most of the guidance is dry. The Probability of Precipitation aren't outrageous only 30-40 in the northern half of the area but the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast seems a little overzealous area wise with the values. Given the only slightly higher Probability of Precipitation than the rest of the guidance on Sunday no adjustments will be made from the NBM that comes in later tonight. Overall the changes in the extended forecast compared to the last few nigheights is only minor bunt the most noticeable change is the ridge quickly trying to build back in, possibly even as fast as Saturday night. The ridge over the southeastern CONUS and Gulf through Thursday that gets suppressed Friday will quickly begin to build and amplify over the western Gulf and Mexico eventually building back into the area with the ridge axis extending northeast through the TN/OH River valleys by Sunday morning. This would lead to a drier and hotter forecast which has been the trend now for a few days. The amplifying ridge is mainly in response to the west coast/western CONUS L/W trough anchoring back to the west and digging along the coast once again. The increase in the subtropical jet coming out of the Pacific and over the Baja will mostly lift northeast across the southern and central Plains. With that look for the mostly dry forecast to continue along with the heat rising. with that Heat impacts begin to become a greater concern this weekend and early next week. Let's be honest yes upper 80s and even a few lower 90s isn't necessarily hot but for April however, first this is record territory for the for much of the area but the biggest issue is many people won't quite yet be climatized to those temperatures and the Heat Index values could top out in the mid 90s. With this just remember to stay hydrated and understand that heat exhaustion could creep up on you faster than you would typically think right now. A few more weekends of temps like this or slightly warmer and most people will be fine but given this is the first weekend with these temperatures and multiple events occurring this weekend if you are out there just be prepared. /CAB/ Long Term (Friday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 1126pm CDT Tuesday April 21 2026 A noticeable trend towards a dry weekend advertised by the ensemble means, this includes all 3, the GFES, ECS, and CMCE. That isn't quite the case with the operational runs as all three have some rain mainly Saturday which is actually just before this portion of the forecast discussion but the rain could linger into the evening/overnight hours if it develops. Sunday through Tuesday the overwhelming majority of the guidance is dry and quite warm with the forecast explicitly showing highs hitting 90s degrees for the first time this season. Temperature wise NBM is in agreement with these warm temperatures and is actually a touch warmer in some locations. However, the NBM is still more optimistic with regards to rain especially on Sunday when most of the guidance is dry. The Probability of Precipitation aren't outrageous only 30-40 in the northern half of the area but the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast seems a little overzealous area wise with the values. Given the only slightly higher Probability of Precipitation than the rest of the guidance on Sunday no adjustments will be made from the NBM that comes in later tonight. Overall the changes in the extended forecast compared to the last few nigheights is only minor bunt the most noticeable change is the ridge quickly trying to build back in, possibly even as fast as Saturday night. The ridge over the southeastern CONUS and Gulf through Thursday that gets suppressed Friday will quickly begin to build and amplify over the western Gulf and Mexico eventually building back into the area with the ridge axis extending northeast through the TN/OH River valleys by Sunday morning. This would lead to a drier and hotter forecast which has been the trend now for a few days. The amplifying ridge is mainly in response to the west coast/western CONUS L/W trough anchoring back to the west and digging along the coast once again. The increase in the subtropical jet coming out of the Pacific and over the Baja will mostly lift northeast across the southern and central Plains. With that look for the mostly dry forecast to continue along with the heat rising. with that Heat impacts begin to become a greater concern this weekend and early next week. Let's be honest yes upper 80s and even a few lower 90s isn't necessarily hot but for April however, first this is record territory for the for much of the area but the biggest issue is many people won't quite yet be climatized to those temperatures and the Heat Index values could top out in the mid 90s. With this just remember to stay hydrated and understand that heat exhaustion could creep up on you faster than you would typically think right now. A few more weekends of temps like this or slightly warmer and most people will be fine but given this is the first weekend with these temperatures and multiple events occurring this weekend if you are out there just be prepared. /CAB/ Marine Issued at 1126pm CDT Tuesday April 21 2026 As high pressure shifts east of the coastal waters, winds will gradually become southeasterly and then southerly over the next few days. There will be little change in the surface pressure pattern through much of this week. A cold front will approach the area over the weekend, with some uncertainty whether it reaches the northern gulf waters. NOAA New Orleans LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. |
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