Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island Marine Forecast
|This Afternoon...South Winds Near 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet.|
|Tonight...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet.|
|Saturday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Showers And Thunderstorms Likely In The Afternoon.|
|Saturday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Sunday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Sunday Night...Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely.|
|Monday...South Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely.|
|Monday Night...South Winds Around 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. A Chance Of Showers, Mainly In The Evening.|
|Tuesday...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1119am CDT Fri May 20 2022
...MORNINGForecast is on track. Isolated showers will continue to be possible across coastal MS but not anticipating any lightning as these showers should all remain below 6500 ft just below h8. Abv that the atmosphere is very dry but more than that the inversion between h85-h79 is rather stout and should suppress convection. Previous forecast had low end probability of precipitation over coastal MS and see no reason to change that. /CAB/
/issued 432am CDT Fri May 20 2022/
SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday Night)... The majority of areas are likely to remain dry through today as we continue to see a lack of moisture in the area. The one exception will be the possibility of a couple showers and storms that may pop up across far eastern parts of the MS coast. the main window for this being noon to 6pm, however the confidence in any showers or storms being able to develop is rather low. Otherwise continuing warm temperatures today with afternoon highs forecasted in the mid 80s to low 90s.
Heading into Saturday we will see some moisture begin to surge in which helps to increase rain chances. Probability of Precipitation will increase to around 45-55% by Saturday afternoon as some shortwave energy moves across environment we'll be dealing with shows a few parameters that could point at the potential for some strong to severe storms. DCAPE values are around 1200 J/Kg, Theta-e difference is 35-38 C/Km, MBURST values are up to 6-9, and PWATs (Precipitable Waters) are in the realm of 1.7. Given these values it would not be surprising to see a few storms turn strong to severe. HL
LONG TERM (Sunday and beyond)... A weakening frontal boundary is expected to stall near or just north of the forecast area on Sunday as the overall flow pattern turns parallel to the frontal boundary. In advance of this front, persistent deep layer onshore flow from the Gulf of Mexico will usher in a very moist and unstable airmass into the forecast area. Precipitable water values will be near 2 inches on Sunday, and likely remain between 1.75 and 2 inches through at least mid-week, and possibly as late as Friday. The upper trough axis will move from the southwestern states on Sunday to the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles Wednesday morning. Beyond that point, the 18z GFS and 12z ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) operational solutions diverge significantly at 500 mb. Would note, however, that the ECMWF ensemble mean looked a lot closer to what the GFS operational and ensemble solutions were advertising. This would keep southwesterly upper flow across the area through perhaps Friday. Shortwaves moving through that flow are likely to trigger periods of showers and thunderstorms, but confidence in specific timing of those impulses that far out in the forecast is rather low. Current NBM Probability of Precipitation emphasize afternoon and evening convection, when instability will be most favorable. Not enough confidence in a particular target of opportunity to make significant shifts in the PoP forecast beyond Sunday at this time. There's likely to be a focus for heavy rainfall on several occasions early to mid week next week. Antecedent conditions have been fairly dry, but we'll need to monitor rainfall amounts with each shortwave as totals could eventually cause issues if we get repeat events over the same area. While any one precipitation surge may produce widespread 1-2 inch rainfall totals, considering the precipitable water values, spot totals could be considerably higher.
The extensive cloud cover associated with this convective activity will also keep temperatures suppressed with highs only warming into the lower to mid 80s for most of the week until things dry out. As we get toward the end of the week, the GFS numbers track closer to the NBM than the 12z ECMWF operational guidance, and are favored, especially for overnight lows. 35
AVIATION (06Z TAF package)... Currently, all terminals VFR although several are reporting scattered clouds near FL025. Forecast soundings indicate that the base of the inversion should remain around 900 mb all night. So as long as winds don't totally decouple overnight, ceilings should stay in the MVFR (Marginal Visual Flight Rules) category. If there's a favored terminal for lighter winds/lower conditions, it'd be KMCB, but even there, the NBM probability of visibility below 3SM is only 15%.
Most terminals could see a brief period between about 14-16z, when the cumulus field first develops, that could produce ceilings just below FL030. Those should lift quickly to FL040 or greater and scatter out.
Southerly winds near 15 knots likely at most terminals for a good bit of the daytime hours before falling below 10 knots after sunset. 35
Southwesterly to southeasterly flow will continue through today and into the weekend, becoming predominately SE on Sunday. Winds will be consistently around 15-20kts through the weekend and into early next week. This keeps wave heigheights around 4-5ft through the forecast period. HL
NOAA New Orleans LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.