Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Dominant Period 6 Seconds.|
|Tonight...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet. Dominant Period 6 Seconds.|
|Monday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds.|
|Monday Night...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Tuesday...East Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Seas Building To 3 To 6 Feet In The Afternoon. Chance Of Showers In The Morning. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms Through The Day. Showers Likely In The Afternoon.|
|Tuesday Night... Tropical Storm Conditions Possible. Showers Likely.|
|Wednesday... Tropical Storm Conditions Possible. Showers.|
|Wednesday Night... Tropical Storm Conditions Possible. Showers Likely In The Evening, Then Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Thursday...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas To 8 Feet. Dominant Period 7 Seconds. Seas Subsiding To 3 To 5 Feet In The Afternoon. Chance Of Showers.|
| Synopsis for Pascagoula to SW Pass Mississippi - GMZ501|
Synopsis for SW Pass Mississippi River to Atchafalaya River- GMZ500
1022 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020
Tropical Storm Zeta is expected to move northward towards the north-central Gulf coast while interacting with a cold front before making landfall midweek. Refer to the latest advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center regarding Tropical Storm Zeta.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1250pm CDT Sunday Oct 25 2020
SHORT TERM... Surface high pressure to the north continues to drive in post- frontal air mass. Looking at the most recent LIX sounding, there's a a layer of low level moisture stuck under the inversion. That's the cloud deck in place across the forecast area. Guidance suggests that it will be stick in for most of the day. Based on that, went with the cooler CONSSHORT guidance for daytime highs, which is several degrees below the NBM. That actually puts max temps slightly below average for this time of year. Seems like its been awhile since we've had highs below normal.
Long Term All of the medium range guidance is in good agreement that the local area will be on the northwest periphery of an upper level ridge axis centered between Bermuda and the East Coast by Tuesday. Deep layer southwest fetch will begin to advect deep layer moisture into the region. This will allow for higher precipitable water values and increased cloud development. GFS preciptable water guidance shows those values well into the 2" range, topping out around 2.25" by the afternoon. That value is about 10% above the average max for this time of year. Am becoming more concerned with the potential for very heavy rain on Tuesday. We've seen this time and time again where a portion of the CWA sees a localized (parish sized area) heavy rain event resulting in flash flooding or moderate river flooding.
Larger scale weather impacts begin to arise Tuesday night into Wednesday. All indications are that a vigorous upper level low pressure system and associated surface low will sweep from the Southern Plains across the Lower Mississippi Valley and into the Mid- Atlantic States during the middle to latter part of the week. To add complexity to the situation, Tropical Storm Zeta will be tracking north through the Gulf of Mexico and making landfall on the northern Gulf Coast ahead of the trough. Models do suggest that Zeta will become absorbed as it merges with the upper system moving in but impacts are still impacts. Heavy rain will most likely be the main one but still could be looking at tropical storm to low end hurricane winds across portions of the CWA. Those winds generally bring short-term power outages and minor to moderate storm surge. The eventual track will be the main determinate of those wind and surge impacts.
Once that all blows through Wednesday night, should be looking at 3 or more days of cool and quiet weather across the region.
AVIATION... Cigs will stay in most if not all day and also may stay around IFR levels through the day. Some vis restrictions around daylight today.
North to NE winds will begin to rise to around 15-20kt by the start of the work week. As projections of a Tropical Storm Zeta move into the area, winds and seas will worsen over time. This should be relatively quick as transitions go from a tropical cylone event to a post frontal event. Both of these will keep strong winds over the coastal waters into Saturday before backing off to levels not requiring any flags by Sunday.
NOAA New Orleans LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.