Marine Weather Net

Breton Sound Marine Forecast


TODAY

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TUESDAY

N
WINDS
5 KNOTS

TUESDAY NIGHT

SW
WINDS
5 KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ538 Forecast Issued: 954 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Today...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 2 To 3 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Tonight...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming West 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Waves Around 2 Feet In The Evening, Then 1 Foot Or Less.
Tuesday...North Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming Southeast In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.
Tuesday Night...Southwest Winds Around 5 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.
Wednesday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Wednesday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.
Thursday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Thursday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.
Friday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Friday Night...Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
645am CDT Monday May 27 2024

Long Term
(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 350am CDT Monday May 27 2024

Quite a bit of disagreement in medium range rain chances between the GFS (Global Forecast System) based and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) based guidance. The area will be in northwesterly mid level flow for Wednesday through at least Friday. With the exception of agreement on a shortwave producing thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, the ECMWF solutions are much drier than the GFS solutions. With the trough axis to the east of the area, there's a tendency to downplay any convective threat, but I've seen too many times that convection around the periphery of a ridge tends to "overperform". We'll keep some mention of afternoon convection in the forecast. By the weekend, the model families flip with the ECMWF solutions the wetter choice.

High temperature forecast will obviously be tied to precipitation chances, with the drier model solution the hotter one. For now, will go with the NBM deterministic, hoping for better agreement between the model families. Overnight lows should be at least slightly more comfortable beyond Tuesday night with slightly drier air in place.

Marine
Issued at 350am CDT Monday May 27 2024

With the boundary to the north expected to weaken, the weaker pressure gradient should allow winds to diminish a bit later this morning. Current plan is to let Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines expire. Once that occurs, we should be in a pattern that will be driven by diurnal heat processes with onshore/offshore diurnal trends. This usually doesn't result in wind speeds strong enough to require headlines.

NOAA New Orleans LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
LA...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8pm CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090.

GM...None. MS...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8pm CDT this evening for MSZ068-077-083-084-086-087.

GM...None.