Marine Weather Net

Breton Sound Marine Forecast


REST OF TONIGHT

N
WINDS
25 - 30
KNOTS

TUESDAY

NE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

TUESDAY NIGHT

SW
WINDS
5 KNOTS

WEDNESDAY

NW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ538 Forecast Issued: 849 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY ...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM CDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...
Rest Of Tonight...North Winds 25 To 30 Knots, Becoming Northeast 20 To 25 Knots. Waves 4 To 6 Feet.
Tuesday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 4 Feet In The Morning, Then 1 Foot Or Less.
Tuesday Night...Southwest Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming West After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.
Wednesday...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Southeast In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.
Wednesday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.
Thursday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 4 Feet. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.
Thursday Night...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Waves 2 To 4 Feet. A Chance Of Showers.
Friday...Northeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning.
Friday Night...North Winds Around 10 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet.
Saturday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet.
Saturday Night...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet.
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Area Forecast Discussion
...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA
948pm CDT Monday Mar 18 2024

.SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 400pm CDT Monday Mar 18 2024

Drier air and plenty of sunshine has allowed us to warm up today a bit more than was expected. Much of the area was in the upper 60s and low 70s today. PW is around 0.5-0.6 inches this afternoon thanks to the drier low-level air mentioned earlier. That is around the 25th percentile for today, showing how abnormally dry it is out there. The tightened pressure gradient behind the cold front that passed this morning has caused some gusty northerly winds this afternoon with the help of thermal mixing.

The center of the surface high trailing the front will move over the area late tonight and into Tuesday morning. This will help back winds down for Tuesday. Although surface winds seems to back down, cold-air advection still seems apparent Tuesday morning, so lows were bumped down from NBM across the area. This led to freezing temperatures across much of SW MS and the adjacent Florida parishes. Freezing temps will only last for maybe and hour or two because as soon as the sun comes up, we will warm up pretty rapidly. You can thank even drier air for that because the drier the air, the more of a diurnal temperature curve you get. Thanks to much drier 850mb air, PW will drop all the way down to 0.2 inches tomorrow, rivaling the daily min for that day of 0.25 inches.

Like was mentioned before, the aforementioned drier air on Tuesday will cause air to rapidly warm throughout the day. So, that coupled with the clear skies expected on Tuesday, cause the temps to get bumped up from NBM using a blend of NBM 75th and 90th percentile. The dry air and sunshine will also cause dewpoints to mix out efficiently at the surface, so NBM 10th percentile was used for that as well. This drops our RH to below 25 percent for most of the area, so be careful burning tomorrow if you do. Thankfully, since the center of the surface high will be overhead, winds will not be an issue for fires.

By Wednesday, the surface high slides to the east and we get return flow setting up. This will moisten us back up where PW will get back above 0.5 inches, although still abnormally dry. This also allows temps to continue to get warmer and actually feel like Spring for the first day of spring!

Long Term
(Thursday through Sunday night) Issued at 400pm CDT Monday Mar 18 2024

Thursday, another upper level system is expected to influence the area as a low moves through the southeast US, which will enhance rain chances Thursday into Friday morning. Southerly surface winds ahead of the frontal system will help to advect warmer and moist air into the region, enhancing instability as well. There are still quite a few uncertainties in the model consensus in the mid- range forecast, mostly surrounding the amount of rainfall expected. Some are drier while others show more of a potential for training. Our forecast has been trending a little drier to be more in line with growing trends in the forecast. Probability of Precipitation are still in the 30-50% range.

After the system moves through, ridging will dominate the upper level pattern and conditions will be dry Friday through the weekend. Northerly surface winds Friday through Saturday night will help keep conditions a little less humid, but highs will still be pushing 80 degrees this weekend. Sunday will be mostly a transition day for the atmosphere as surface winds shift back to southerly and moisture is reintroduced to the atmosphere. MSW

Marine
Issued at 400pm CDT Monday Mar 18 2024

Gusty northerly winds behind the cold front has caused hazardous seas today through tomorrow morning. Once the center of the surface highs gets overhead, the winds significantly back down below impact thresholds, and benign conditions stick through the end of the week. There is another shot of rain Thursday with the next system, but there is still some uncertainty on timing and location of the rain.

NOAA New Orleans LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
LA...Freeze Warning from 3am to 8am CDT Tuesday for LAZ034>037-039- 071.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7am CDT Tuesday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Freeze Warning from 3am to 8am CDT Tuesday for MSZ068>071-077.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7am CDT Tuesday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.