Marine Weather Net

Cape Elizabeth ME to Merrimack River MA Marine Forecast


REST OF TONIGHT

N
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

SUN

NE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

SUN NIGHT

NE
WINDS
15 - 25
KNOTS

MON

NE
WINDS
20 - 30
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ154 Forecast Issued: 933 PM EST Sat Nov 16 2019

GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
Rest Of Tonight...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Ne 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.
Sun...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.
Sun Night...Ne Winds 15 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Building To 5 To 8 Ft After Midnight. A Chance Of Rain After Midnight.
Mon...Ne Winds 20 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Seas 7 To 10 Ft, Building To 9 To 12 Ft In The Afternoon. Rain. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.
Mon Night...N Winds 20 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt, Becoming Nw 10 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 10 To 14 Ft, Subsiding To 9 To 12 Ft After Midnight. Rain, Mainly In The Evening. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.
Tue...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 7 To 10 Ft, Subsiding To 5 To 8 Ft In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Rain In The Morning With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.
Tue Night...Nw Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Subsiding To 3 To 4 Ft After Midnight.
Wed...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.
Wed Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.
Thu...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.
Thu Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1250am EST Sunday Nov 17 2019

Synopsis
Cold Canadian high pressure settling over the region has led to rapid cooling tonight with very chilly overnight lows. This high will move east and north on Sunday allowing for temperatures to moderate somewhat under partly to mostly sunny skies. Low pressure off the east coast will move north on Sunday night and Monday...spreading moisture into New England likely resulting in a wintry mix of precipitation types. Unsettled weather will continue through the midweek with temperatures near seasonal norms.

Near Term - Until 6am This Morning
1245am Update: Only minor ESTF tweaks with no significant changes at this time.

9pm update: Temperatures and dewpoints are running slightly warmer for this hour although both are in the single digits across much of the area. With plenty of the night left to go will not adjust lows at this point as sounding shows a very dry layer aloft and expect continued cooling to occur overnight.

530pm update: Just a minor adjustment for current temperatures. Forecast is on track with temperature expected to drop rapidly over the next few hours.

prev disc:

High Impact Weather Potential: Record low temperatures possible.

Pattern: Pattern across the eastern United States early this afternoon reveals a ridge over trough / blocking regime with very evident cutoff low off the southeastern coast while a shortwave ridge axis and attendant surface high pressure builds into New England. This high is accompanied by a very cold and dry cP airmass with dewpoints largely in the single digits...morning PWATs (Precipitable Waters) below 0.10" / -1 to -2 sigma/ and temperatures in the teens and 20s at the surface as T8s below -10C are also in the -1 to -2 sigma range. For the near term forecast this spells little in the way of sensible weather concerns outside of the cold...which will be the primary forecast concern tonight.

Through this evening: Not much to speak of in terms of sensible weather other than the cold. With clear skies and diminishing gradient...expect winds to go calm throughout the region with temperatures quickly falling after sunset...reaching the single digits in the mountains by 8pm with teens in the foothills...and lower 20s along the coastal plain.

Tonight: How low can temperatures go? That/s pretty much the only significant forecast question as arriving high pressure should ensure clear skies and light winds. Afternoon crossover temps are near or a bit below zero with this similar to dewpoints throughout the lower troposphere. This suggests a lower bound on lows probably in the -5 to -10F range and this is precisely what we see from the statistical guidance in our northern valleys. Will continue inherited trend of sticking towards the lower end of the statistical guidance. This results in most areas away from the coast falling to -5 to +10...with some lower teens along the immediate coast...as well as in the urban corridor from ASH to MHT. This will bring temps close to records in some locations with the most likely of our climate sites to break it/s record low tonight being Augusta.

Record lows tonight

Portland: 8/1972 Augusta: 13/1967 Concord: -1/1967

Short Term - 6am This Morning Through 6pm Monday
High Impact Weather Potential: Potential for mixed precipitation over southern areas towards daybreak Monday.

Pattern: High pressure overhead to begin the day Sunday will shift east and north of our region. At the same time...longwave troughing will build into the Mississippi Valley and serve as a "kicker" to the cutoff sitting off the southeastern United States coast... directing it north and east. There will again be little in the way of forecast concerns through the day Sunday...with the focus centered on any precipitation associated with the coastal low pressure system nearing our southern / coastal zones by the end of this forecast period early Monday morning.

Sunday: Airmass will have modified from 24 hours previous with developing onshore flow likely to bring an increasing amount of cloudiness /beneath the subsidence inversion/ to southeastern New Hampshire...while clear skies dominate areas further north. T9s in the -5 to -6C range with mixing /barely/ to this level likely will allow areas in the foothills and coastal plain to move above the freezing mark with 20s continuing in the mountains...well captured by the model consensus. Winds will also be lighter than today except perhaps along the immediate coast where northeasterly flow will start to strengthen towards evening.

Sunday Night: As high pressure moves east of the Canadian maritimes...low pressure off the Carolina coast will move north and east to a position well south of the benchmark by 12Z Monday. Antecedent airmass will be rather dry with the exception of some increase in boundary layer moisture over southern NH and coastal ME due to an increasing onshore influence. Global models/ensembles suggest that moisture will struggle to reach our southern zones overnight while some of the higher resolution guidance is much more bullish /e.g...the NAM/. Pattern recognition suggests a slower erosion of the dry wedge overhead and will lower Probability of Precipitation /in collaboration with BOX & NERFC/ to no higher than chance over southeastern areas after midnight. Given rather clear skies during the evening hours...and the continued dry airmass we should have time for temperatures to tumble with readings potentially reaching the single digits in the mountains...teens in the foothills...and 20s elsewhere as temperatures aloft climb above freezing at H8. Wet bulb profiles suggest that if any precipitation reaches southeastern areas towards daybreak it will be liquid. Thus...while it appears likely that much of the precipitation will hold off until after daybreak...the earlier it arrives...the better the chance is for some freezing rain. Given potential impacts for the morning commute...we/ll need to watch this period closely in subsequent forecasts.

Long Term - Monday Night Through Saturday
High Impact Weather Potential: A strong coastal storm may bring mixed precipitation to the region Monday and Tuesday

Monday into Tuesday... Overview: Overall the pattern will be meridional but still progressive through the extended. By Monday morning a significant short wave will be off the NJ coast, with additional troughing just upstream digging into the eastern CONUS. These will both tilt negatively as they affect the northeast. A 990mb or so low pressure system will be deepening as it moves quickly northeast towards the Gulf of Maine. Sensitivity analysis show mainly positional differences among Euro and CMC ensemble members.

P-type and amounts: Much of the area will be below freezing as precipitation begins to creep north into our area Monday morning. Temperatures will also be on the rise however, and warmer air aloft associated with the system will be pushing inland ahead of the warmer surface temps. Along the coast we will start out with freezing rain or plain rain, with freezing rain and sleet more likely across the mountains and foothills. As the day goes on the freezing line will push north, changing more areas over to rain. This will be a messy system, and as temperatures drop Monday night, we will see more snow develop and shift south. On Tuesday any remaining SN/RA showers will be confined to the mountains. Temperatures should warm up nicely with the help of westerly winds, reaching the mid to upper 30s north to mid 40s south.

As far as Quantitative Precipitation Forecast goes, we are starting out quite dry. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) do get to around 1 inch along the coast, but farther inland Quantitative Precipitation Forecast will be light resulting in overall low precipitation amounts inland. Still, any freezing rain will make roads extremely dangerous.

Winds: We will also have gusty winds Monday as an anomalously strong LLJ wraps around from the east-southeast into the storm. The strongest winds would be closer to the coast.

Wednesday through Friday... Surface high pressure builds in from the SW for midweek, with temperatures closer to seasonal norms than they have been (mid 30s to mid/upper 40s). A warm front lifts across the area Thursday night into Friday spreading rain and snow into the region. This will be followed by a strong frontal passage as surface low pressure forms quickly and moves northeast in a hurry.

Marine
Short Term
High pressure cresting overhead through Sunday morning will bring a brief respite to the winds over the waters tonight through much of Sunday. Sunday night...northeasterly winds will strengthen with gusts over the outer waters approaching gale force by Monday morning. For these winds /which increase into Monday/...a gale watch has been issued this afternoon.

Long Term... The Gale Watch will continue through Monday night, when winds and seas begin to drop off as the storm moves northeast. We may still need a Small Craft Advisory Tuesday and Tuesday night for the outer waters as seas will still be above 5 ft.

Tides / Coastal Flooding
Prolonged NE flow to gale force, along with building seas ahead of the coastal low may result in minor splashover and erosion at high tide on Monday, mainly from Portland south. This is supported by SNAP- Ex, ETSS, and ESTOFS models which show storm surge of around 1.5 ft.

NOAA Gray/Portland ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from late tonight through Monday evening for ANZ150>154.