Marine Weather Net

Cape Elizabeth ME to Merrimack River MA Marine Forecast


TODAY

SE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TONIGHT

S
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

TUE

SW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

TUE NIGHT

W
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ154 Forecast Issued: 650 AM EDT Mon May 16 2022

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
Today...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt Late. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers Late.
Tonight...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. Vsby Variable To Less Than One Quarter Nm.
Tue...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.
Tue Night...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.
Wed...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.
Wed Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Thu...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Ft.
Thu Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Fri...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Fri Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
701am EDT Monday May 16 2022

Synopsis
Low pressure develops over New York State and tracks northeast through the St Lawrence valley today and tonight. This low brings a warm front through northern areas today, and a cold front through the entire region overnight. Thunderstorms are likely to develop Monday afternoon/evening and could produce some strong to severe storms along the fronts, mainly in New Hampshire. Temps turn cooler through mid week, before a warming trend returns late in the week into the weekend with increased ridging across Eastern Seaboard.

Near Term - Today
7:00AM Issued a dense fog advisory in coordination with Caribou across parts of the MidCoast for a couple more hours where the marine fog is thickest. Otherwise mostly refreshed temps and POPs with some high res guidance for today. Forecast remains on track with thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening.

Previous... Areas of fog continue to develop across the area, with marine fog holding strong along the coastline. The fog is expected to dissipate in most areas in the hours after sunrise, but periods of fog will likely linger along parts of the coastline most of the day.

Away from the coast, temperatures warm into the 70s and low 80s with southerly flow. Low pressure deepens across New York State today and moves through the Saint Lawrence Valley tonight. Both a warm front and a cold front will affect the area, each serving to focus thunderstorm activity. The first round of storms is expected to develop near the warm front this afternoon, and mostly affect parts of western and northern New Hampshire. The storms near the warm front have the potential to produce some gusty winds and heavy rainfall, and some rotation is also possible with these storms. A few isolated cells are possible elsewhere during the afternoon hours.

The bulk of the storm activity is expected to arrive late in the afternoon and evening with the approaching cold front. A robust squall line is expected to form across Upstate New York in the afternoon. Daytime heating will be in decline with the line's arrival late in the day into our area, but the deepening low should produce enough forcing to bring the storms into New Hampshire while they still have the potential to produce some strong wind gusts. This chance diminishes across the coastal plain later in the evening as the storms get undercut by the marine layer and most of the convection becomes elevated.

Short Term - Tonight Through Tuesday
The showers and storms gradually weaken as they move eastward, then push offshore after midnight. Some lingering showers are likely through the overnight hours, especially across northern areas. The upper level low associated with today's system gradually crosses northern areas late tomorrow afternoon and evening. The upper level low will help to kick off some Probability of Precipitation up shower activity in the afternoon, with a few thunderstorms possible as well. Northern areas will likely see the most widespread shower activity, with the coastline remaining the driest.

A significant change of air masses will accompany the upper level low, with highs topping out in the low 70s along the coastline, and upper 50s across northern areas tomorrow afternoon.

Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Sunday
The upper low will cross into the Canadian Maritimes and pull away from the area, leaving a cooler, drier, breezy NW flow in its wake through the day Wednesday. There may be some leftover upslope mountain showers in the morning, but otherwise skies will trend toward mostly sunny in the afternoon as dry air continues to filter in. Wind gusts to around 30 mph look like a good bet during the afternoon as we mix down from aloft (leaned more heavily on the NAM winds), and with the forecast soundings showing very dry air above 850mb, have also gone on the low side of guidance on surface dewpoints. High temps will be generally in the 60s, except upper 50s for northern areas.

Winds will become light Wednesday evening/night as a surface high builds overhead, and with mostly clear skies and dewpoints forecast to be in the 30s, patchy frost will be possible in some areas.

A warming trend will commence from Thurs-Fri as a warm front lifts northward through the area. Aloft, the flow will be nearly zonal, but a weak disturbance may provide enough lift for isolated- scattered shower activity to develop on Thursday. Highs look be in the 60s to low 70s inland on Thursday, increasing to the mid-upper 70s for Friday. Very chilly ocean temperatures will keep coastal areas several degrees colder and have undercut guidance along the coast each day.

The warmest day is on tap for Saturday as upper-level ridging briefly builds ahead of a trough extending from Hudson Bay toward the Great Lakes. Deep layer SW flow should boost Saturday's temps well into the 80s away from the coast, and these warm temps will also give us some instability to work with. So while the ridge should keep the atmosphere largely suppressed, we could see isolated diurnal convection. Global models are then in decent agreement on the next potential in seeing more widespread precipitation arriving toward the second half of the weekend as a cold front approaches the area.

Marine
Short Term
Southwesterly flow ahead of a cold front increases this evening to SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria. Thunderstorms are possible late this evening and into the overnight hours with the front. Westerly winds behind the front continue to bring SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions through at least tomorrow evening.

Long Term
Seas up to 5 ft will likely prolong the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) through Wednesday but conditions will then improve through late week as seas subside to 2-4 ft. Brisk offshore winds on Wednesday will diminish and become more southerly around 10-15 kt through late week and into this weekend.

Tides / Coastal Flooding
We are entering a period of high astronomical tides early this week with minor coastal inundation and splash-over possible in spite of relatively quiet conditions over near-shore waters. Tides were already high with the late Sunday evening cycle, topping out around 10.85' at Hampton NH (FS: 11') and 11.73' at Portland (FS: 12'). Astronomical tides will continue to trend upward until the monthly peak with the 12:51am Wednesday tide cycle. Meanwhile, onshore flow will continue until the passage of a cold front Monday night/early Tuesday, after which offshore flow will dominate... especially on Wednesday with gusty northwest winds.

Thus, am expecting the late Monday into early Tuesday morning tide cycle (12:02 AM) to be the highest of the tide cycles. According to latest surge guidance and latest anomaly data, tide gauges should just reach flood stage for Portland and points south. In more aggressive surge scenarios, some of the more sensitive MidCoast hot spots may be impacted, but confidence in this panning out is low. By late Tuesday into early Wednesday, flow will be shifting offshore which should mitigate coastal flooding threat.

NOAA Gray/Portland ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 9am EDT this morning for MEZ022- 025>028. NH...None.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory from 8pm this evening to 6pm EDT Tuesday for ANZ150-152-154.