Cape Elizabeth ME to Merrimack River MA Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt Late This Evening And Overnight. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sun Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming Sw 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Rain After Midnight With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Mon...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Rain Likely. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm In The Morning.|
|Mon Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft, Building To 4 To 7 Ft After Midnight. A Chance Of Rain In The Evening, Then Rain Likely After Midnight.|
|Tue...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft, Building To 7 To 10 Ft In The Afternoon. Showers.|
|Tue Night...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 8 To 10 Ft. Showers.|
|Wed...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 8 To 11 Ft. Showers Likely.|
|Wed Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 8 To 10 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Thu...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 7 To 9 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning.|
|Thu Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 6 To 8 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Gray ME
558pm EDT Sat Oct 23 2021
Cooler and mostly dry weather continues this weekend as a weak area of high pressure remains to our west. A weak area of low pressure will cross through the Gulf of Maine Monday. A stronger area of low pressure will reach either the southern New England or Mid Atlantic coastline on Tuesday before intensifying on Wednesday. High pressure then builds into New England from northeast Canada Thursday into Friday. Another storm system may potentially bring rain to the region next weekend.
Near Term - Through Sunday
600pm Quick update was made focusing on cloud cover and temperatures through the evening hours. Satellite imagery continues to show a good deal of mid-level clouds over the area but these should dissipate overnight as drier air moves into the region. Still looking at a cold night with widespread frost/freeze conditions away from the immediate coast. The rest of the forecast thinking remains on track.
Previously... Cloud cover will continue.nue to dissipate through the evening hours as a mid level disturbance moves away. Winds will remain fairly light through morning, allowing for radiational cooling to near or below the freezing mark in a lot of spots for the first time this year.
Short Term - Sunday Night
Winds will freshen again tomorrow as low pressure deepens across the Canadian Maritimes, with gusts generally around 20 mph. With lots of sunshine expected, tomorrow's highs should run a few degrees warmer than today's.
Clouds will start to spread north tomorrow evening as warm air overruns the cooler air at this surface. Showers will likely become steady from southwest to northeast after midnight tomorrow night, and will likely be extend into central Maine by daybreak. Some light snow is expected across the higher peaks with this round of precipitation, and some snowflakes can't be ruled out in the lower elevations across the far north either. Clear skies lasting later into the night across far northern areas should allow boundary layer temperatures to cool enough to support some mixing. But elsewhere, a steady light rain is expected to evolve.
Long Term - Monday Through Saturday
Model to model and run to run continuity with the Tuesday into Wednesday system is very poor with low confidence levels continuing with this latest forecast package as operational and ensemble solutions struggle with this system.
Beginning with Monday, models have come into fairly good agreement with a weak open wave or weak area of low pressure crossing through the Gulf of Maine. This will bring generally periods of light to locally moderate rainfall to the region during the day as warm air advection develops over the region. Sufficient amounts of cold and dry air located to our north may allow for the highest elevations in the northern mountains to continue to produce some light snowfall.
Tuesday into Wednesday is another story. Jet and accompanying energy aloft will have improved sampling over the western United States moving forward. Ensemble and operational solutions continue to show a significant amount of uncertainty with the evolution of this system. The Euro and particularly the Canadian solutions have caught on to capturing a system well off the Mid Atlantic region and retrogrades this deep moisture back towards the New England coastline. There are discrepancies of how far poleward this moisture tracks. The GFS, NAM and other solutions remain on the dry side of the equation.
Therefore, will continue.nue to message rainfall expected during the Monday and Wednesday time frame with the low confidence possibility of heavy rainfall over southern and central areas as well as the southeast facing higher terrain. Model ensembles vary considerably with Quantitative Precipitation Forecast potential as well as the closest approach to our region for the highest precipitable water values.
Some of the river model ensembles do indicate the possibility of minor river flooding with some of the member solutions. In fact, moderate flooding is hinted as well.
With uncertainty in the storm track and evolution, winds gusts remain highly variable as well Tuesday into Wednesday. In any event, drier air should enter the region Thursday into Friday before another storm system potentially impacts the region next weekend.
We are at are low part of our astronomical tide cycle. Nevertheless, beach erosion is possible during the midweek period.
Some westerly gusts to near 25kts are possible across eastern areas tomorrow afternoon. Following a wind shift, easterly winds will then begin to freshen late Sunday night.
A weak area of low pressure will move through the Gulf of Maine on Monday. Thereafter, low pressure crossing near the southern New England or Mid Atlantic coastline on Tuesday will intensify on Wednesday bringing an increase in winds and seas to the coastline. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are likely during this period with gale force winds possible.
A second system may impact the waters towards the end of the week with seas remaining elevated between systems.
NOAA Gray/Portland ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories