Cape Elizabeth ME to Merrimack River MA Marine Forecast
|Today...Ne Winds 10 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Tonight...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Sat...Ne Winds Around 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming E In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Sat Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Patchy Fog. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Sun...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Patchy Fog In The Morning With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Sun Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
|Mon...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
|Mon Night...S Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Tue...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Tue Night...S Winds Around 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Gray ME
413am EDT Fri July 3 2020
Today will be cooler and more cloudy than recent days as a cold front settles to our southwest with scattered showers, perhaps a rumble of thunder over western New Hampshire. The Fourth of July looks to be mainly dry with comfortable temperatures, then another cold front drops southeastward through the area Sunday bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. A warm and humid airmass builds into the middle of the next work week with unsettled, showery conditions likely to persist.
Near Term - Today
Ely flow in increasing behind the front...which is surging SWwd along the coast...currently thru most of Wrn ME. Not expecting widespread fog...mainly just low clouds. These will scatter out during mid to late morning.
With the boundary SW of the forecast area this afternoon...the primary focus for showers and storms will also be out of the area. There is a small chance that some of this convection may pop around the CT River Valley...but overall expecting dry wx today.
Short Term - Tonight Through Saturday
Secondary...mostly dry...S/WV trough will shove any remaining precipitation Swd tonight. A narrow...weak surface ridge will try and work into the area and may allow for some patchy valley fog across Srn zones.
Any diurnal convection should be fairly isolated Sat...as stronger moisture return will have to wait for Sunday and leave instability lacking.
Long Term - Saturday Night Through Thursday
The long term portion of the forecast is characterized by a largely zonal, ridge-dominant synoptic pattern over the CONUS punctuated by shortwave troughs skirting across the Canadian border and into New England. After a trough delivers a chance of showers and storms along a cold front Sunday, ridging will gradually build a warm and humid airmass into the region culminating in another cold frontal passage around mid-week. Weak waves crossing between the larger waves keep generally unsettled conditions with low confidence in details during most afternoons through the week.
Getting into the daily weeds, Saturday night will see any diurnal shower/storm activity waning with sunset under weakly cyclonic flow aloft. Meanwhile high pressure over Nova Scotia will provide an onshore flow over Maine and the immediate coast, which may lead to the development of some patchy fog overnight, especially where rain falls during the day. Winds turn more southerly to southwesterly Sunday ahead of a cold front dropping down from Canada. Temperatures warm well into the 80s over the interior of New Hampshire and southwest Maine up into the upper Connecticut River Valley with temperatures more subdued in the 70s along the coast and inland around the Mid- Coast of Maine with onshore flow. With this in mind, there is a convective threat on Sunday especially where afternoon heating can steepen lapse rates to get updrafts going when the cold front drops through. While there's still some uncertainty with how strong the surface front will be, and thus how favorable conditions will be for convective initiation, broad scale ascent (jet forcing) is favored at least over the northern and eastern zones so have likewise favored Probability of Precipitation and storm chances there as well. Storms that do form have the potential to tap into a favorable thermodynamic environment to produce strong wind gusts.
Cyclonic flow continues, although heigheights aloft ultimately do rise, through about the first half of the coming work week. Weak high pressure over the Maritimes ought to persist during this time as well, so while the interior will likely see temperatures trend upward through the 80s to around 90 by midweek with h850 temps into the upper-teens onshore flow will stunt warming at least along the coast. Temperatures inland could be limited more by low stratus but it's a bit early to buy into those solutions, although some faint signals of this occuring are there. For precipitation chances, a series of weak waves advection through mean west-northwest flow aloft delivers daily precipitation chances for the most part throughout next week. The best chances for Probability of Precipitation beyond Sunday exist on Wednesday where models agree on a cold front crossing.
Ely winds will increase in the wake of the cold front. Gusts to 25 kt are possible outside the bays and seas will build to near 5 ft. Narrow ridge of high pressure noses over the waters thru Sat.
Long Term...Broad high pressure over the Canadian maritimes keeps a steady onshore flow for the most part through the extended forecast with winds and seas staying below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) limits.
NOAA Gray/Portland ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EDT this afternoon for ANZ150- 152-154.