Cape Elizabeth ME to Merrimack River MA Marine Forecast
|Today...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Patchy Fog This Morning With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Tonight...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Sun...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Morning, Then Rain Likely In The Afternoon.|
|Sun Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Rain. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Mon...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Rain, Mainly In The Morning.|
|Mon Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight With Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.|
|Tue...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Tue Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Wed...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Wed Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Gray ME
406am EST Sat Dec 2 2023
A frontal boundary will remain draped across northern Maine today. Areas of low pressure approach from the Ohio Valley Sunday bringing increasing chances for snow across the north and rain south of the mountains. Low pressure forming near southern New England will bring the potential for significant snowfall across the foothills and points northward while there is uncertainty in the rain/snow line across the south. There remains potential for impacts to the Monday morning commute due to wintry conditions. The system exits Monday afternoon with snow showers lingering into Monday night. A drying trend follows into mid week.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
S/WV trough has pushed thru the area leaving behind drying aloft but plenty of moisture near the surface. The result is plenty of cloud cover and patchy fog...but showers mainly confined to the mtns. That trend will continue thru much of the first half of the day...and then some gradual lifting and clearing of the clouds is possible. Temps will remain near to above normal today.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6pm Sunday
Generally quiet tonight...and with cloud cover and continued WAA aloft temps will be mild overnight. Only a slow drop in temps is anticipated...and most of that as precipitation approaches near daybreak and there is a little evaporational cooling.
As the next S/WV trough approaches...and precipitation shield will get better organized to our southwest and lift into the area during the first half of the day. Initially temps will be above freezing and rain is likely. Over time a gradual cooling is anticipated as precipitation keeps falling thru the column. Eventually I have readings wetbulbing down to around 32 to 34 degrees...which should be cold enough for some snow to mix in or dominate even near the coast. As it will take time to occur very little accumulation is expected outside of the higher elevations thru Sunday afternoon.
Long Term - Sunday Night Through Friday
Active winter weather will be ongoing to start the long term period Sunday night into Monday as waves of low pressure bring accumulating snow across the interior. While the 00Z guidance is in relatively good agreement, there is enough spread in ensembles with respect to the rain/snow line south of the foothills leading to low confidence in snowfall accumulations here and potential impacts to the Monday morning commute. From the foothills northward, snow will likely dominate with several inches of accumulation through Monday. The primary low pressure system exits Monday evening while lingering upper disturbances could keep snow showers going through Monday night. There will be a general drying trend Tuesday into Wednesday while an upper trough passes well south of New England with high pressure building in Thursday.
The synoptic setup Sunday night into Monday will feature a potent upper jet stretching from the TX Gulf Coast into the Gulf of Maine with northern New England in the left exit region. At 500 mb there will be short waves embedded in SW flow that lead to one wave of low pressure tracking into the eastern Great Lakes with a secondary low forming in the vicinity of coastal southern New England. The 00Z model suite generally agrees that high pressure anchored over Quebec will force the low over the eastern Great Lakes to transfer eastward. This aligns well with previous the previous forecast cycle leading to increased confidence that snow will be the dominant p- type from the foothills northward. BUFKIT profiles do not show much in the way of a warm nose that could lead to a prolonged period of sleet or freezing rain and have continued with rain or snow wording in the forecast.
The main point of uncertainty continues to be the rain/snow line south of the foothills. There are some ensemble members, mainly the EPS, that bring accumulating snow to the NH/MA border and the coast. Granted this is a minority of members with majority of ensembles highlighting the foothills northward where there is the potential for greater than 6 inches of snow. Unfortunately, things are also unclear looking into the tail end of hi res guidance with the NAM3K showing accumulating snow across the south while the FV3 brings mostly rain into the foothills with only accumulating snow in the higher terrain. Therefore, this forecast does not deviate much from the previous forecast cycle and will await better clarity from hi res guidance with respect to the potential for Winter Storm Watches for the Sunday night into Monday timeframe.
Low pressure will be pulling away from New England Monday afternoon while a short wave will cross the region Monday night. This short wave will keep chances for snow showers going Monday night with light accumulations possible, mainly in the mountains towards central Maine. This short wave exits Tuesday morning while a second short wave dives into the Great Lakes. Tuesday looks mostly dry while the proximity of short waves at this time range suggests that showery weather may be possible. The short wave diving across the Great lakes looks to pass well south of New England Wednesday with high pressure building in for Thursday.
Light flow today will keep winds and seas below SCA thresholds into the overnight period. Wind direction becomes northeast and will gradually increase thru Sun. Northeast flow is a favored direction to be a little stronger than modeled...so I have increased winds slightly from the consensus blend. By afternoon some 25 kt wind gusts are forecast...along with building seas. A SCA (Small Craft Advisory) has been issued into Mon.
Waves of low pressure passing south and through the Gulf of Maine will bring NE winds gusting to greater than 25 kts Sunday night that diminish Monday while seas run to around 5 feet through Monday. Winds and seas generally stay below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds Tuesday into Wednesday.
NOAA Gray/Portland ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory from 1pm Sunday to 4am EST Monday for ANZ150-152-154.