Cape Elizabeth ME to Merrimack River MA Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: S 5 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 3 Ft At 10 Seconds. A Chance Of Snow Or Rain This Evening, Then Rain Or Snow Likely After Midnight. |
| Thu...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming W 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 5 Ft At 4 Seconds And S 5 Ft At 7 Seconds. |
| Thu Night...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 5 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 3 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Fri...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 5 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 11 Seconds. |
| Fri Night...W Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: W 5 Ft At 5 Seconds. Moderate Freezing Spray. |
| Sat...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 5 Ft At 4 Seconds. Moderate Freezing Spray. |
| Sat Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Moderate Freezing Spray. |
| Sun...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Ne 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Snow. Light Freezing Spray. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Sun Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Light Freezing Spray In The Evening. Snow Likely. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Mon...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Snow Likely, Mainly In The Morning. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Mon Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. A Chance Of Snow In The Evening With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 627pm EST Wednesday Jan 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Little change this evening as forecast generally remains on track as light snow continues to push across portions of NH. This remains a light event. Extreme Cold Watches were issued across locations north of the mountains. Guidance has trended this weekend's winter system northward, increasing confidence in at least measurable snowfall Sunday night into Monday. The highest snowfall amounts are likely to be across southern New Hampshire. We continue to monitor the late weekend/early next week period as models are trending northward with a system that could bring plowable snow to at least a portion of the area. .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Low pressure passes north of the area tonight bringing a period of generally light snow. Accumulations will also be light and snow is forecast to end before the Thursday morning commute. A few snow showers and potential squalls will be possible with a cold front Thursday late morning and afternoon, especially across New Hampshire. 2. Arctic blast will bring dangerously cold weather to the region this weekend. The coldest air of the season thus far is looking likely with sub-zero wind chills Friday night into Saturday followed by will below zero low temperatures Sunday morning. Frostbite onset will occur quickly for those not dressed properly. 3. A low is anticipated to approach New England Sunday night, bringing measurable snowfall to the region. Higher totals look most likely in southern NH, though a lot of uncertainty remains. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION: Not much has changed in regards to the light snowfall event expected tonight. Snow begins to breakout in Western New Hampshire in the 6 to 7pm hour, continuing to spread eastward through the midnight hour. This system will be battling the dry Arctic air currently in place over the region, so Quantitative Precipitation Forecast remains less than a tenth of an inch for much of the area. Shortly after midnight much of the area may see snow coming to an end with amounts in the range of a coating to an inch (1-2 inches in northern valleys). The coastal plain sees snow longer and gets a little bit more moisture from the ocean, so Portsmouth up through Brunswick have a better chance of ending up in the 1-2" range before it tapers off in the 2am hour. Lastly, the Midcoast sees snow last through 4am and thusly sees the best chance to end up in the 2-4" range before it's all said and done. The islands likely end up on the lower end of this range, as the warm air advection pushes them above freezing and switches the snow to rain for the last couple hours. All this occuring before the bulk of the Thursday morning commute should keep travel impacts minimal, especially considering the light amounts. The more impactful weather may actually come during the day Thursday ahead of our next Arctic frontal passage. Warm air advection is going to continue at the surface making Thursday a very warm day compared to what we are going to be dealing with later in the week. Temperatures climb into the upper 30s and low 40s south of the mountains, and into the upper 20s and low 30s to the north. Aloft the cold air is going to start moving in and this temperature difference is going to create some instability. The HREF models a clear theta-e ridge offshore which would support the low level moisture pooling over our area and creating a favorable environment for snow squalls. Based on this anywhere could see a squall develop as the snow squall parameter is above 1 across the area, however Northern New Hampshire and into the Western Maine Mountains has the greatest chance supported by a snow squall parameter upwards of 4. CAPE is less important this time of year, but the HREF suggests 50-60 J/kg develop in the north which would further support the signal up there. The 12Z CAMs currently suggest the late morning through the late afternoon is the window for this activity to occur, so timing will have to be watched closely as these heavy showers or squalls could be around for the Thursday evening commute. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION: At the end of the week, a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation will allow for a very weak polar vortex across the northern hemisphere. The strongest of this cold aloft will gyrate around eastern Canada this week and make a southerly swing into the Great Lakes and New England for the weekend. Wind chills are likely to be dangerously cold, especially in the mountains. An Extreme Cold Watch is in effect across Northern NH and Northwestern Maine. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION: A strong mid-latitude cyclone will move across the southeastern US. The low will move eastward, while arctic air is in place across the northeast. This may allow for widespread measurable snowfall across New Hampshire and Western Maine. Models are in solid agreement for at least 1-3 inches of snow Sunday into Monday, though some potential does remain for totals greater than 6 inches across southern NH. Any deviation from here north or south could have substantial impacts to the forecast. Marine SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions continue with a few wind gusts near 35 kts possible on the outer waters as a front crosses the waters. Winds shift westerly with a secondary front crossing Thursday leading to potential gales Thursday night into Friday. (Friday - Onwards) Gale force westerly winds will continue Friday morning through Saturday morning. Winds slacken to SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels during the day Saturday, with winds shifting to northerlies. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) winds continue through early next week. Seas of 5-8ft expected on Friday and Saturday, lowering to 2-4ft by Sunday morning. NOAA Gray/Portland ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories ME...Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for MEZ007>009. NH...Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for NHZ001>003-005. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST Thursday for ANZ150-152. Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning for ANZ150-152. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST Friday for ANZ151-153-154. |
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