Cape Elizabeth ME to Merrimack River MA Marine Forecast
|Today...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Patchy Fog This Morning. Vsby Variable To Less Than One Quarter Nm This Morning.|
|Tonight...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sat...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sat Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sun...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming Sw 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sun Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Mon...S Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming Se 15 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Building To 4 To 7 Ft In The Afternoon. Rain In The Afternoon.|
|Mon Night...Se Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 8 To 11 Ft, Building To 11 To 15 Ft After Midnight. Rain.|
|Tue...Se Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 11 To 16 Ft, Subsiding To 9 To 13 Ft In The Afternoon. Rain.|
|Tue Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 8 To 11 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Gray ME
712am EST Fri Nov 27 2020
Mainly dry and mild weather expected today through the weekend except for a few mountain rain and snow showers late tonight through Saturday. A potent area of low pressure will track to our west Monday night into Tuesday bringing the potential for heavy rain and strong winds. An upper level low will remain over the Northeast keeping conditions unsettle for the middle to latter half of next week.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
710 AM...Fog still hanging around in some spots and still down to 1/4 mile in some places as well. However the trend has been for improvement over the last hour, and expect the fog to dissipate in most places by 14Z, but some of those stubborn sheltered areas could keep for an extra hour or so. Also, given the clearer skies this morning outside the mtns and Ct vly, I went with more sun for the other areas starting from this morning. eventually the CT vly should some signs of clearing, with clouds holding strong in the mtns thru the day.
Previously...Patchy dense fog is the issue this morning, and SPS has been issued to cover this. IT's not everywhere, and it has been quite variable at some locations as well. It is shallow, so it shouldn't take much to break it this morning, and expect improving conditions by 7-8 AM. Otherwise with weakening flow below 500 MB, and little change in air mass aloft, expecting clouds to linger today. Some breaks of sun will be possible, especially across southern NH and SW ME. Highs will be in the mid 40s N, to the low 50s S. Given the limited flow, any upslope showers will be light and spotty at best. Although approaching cold front will increase chances a bit late in the day.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through Saturday Night
Weak cold front crosses the region this evening, and may increase the chance of precipitation in the mtns this evening, but should do little S and E of the mtns, other than maybe increase clouds a bit overnight. There's some possibility of DZ/FZDZ in the mtns as well, given the stagnant flow at the sfc, the cooler and drier air moving in above it, and a possible lack of cloud ice. Lows will range from the low 30s in the N to the mid to upper 30s in southern NH and along the ME coast.
Sat will see more sun than Fri, but it will not be quite as warm. Downslope flow behind the front will help at least partially clear the skies, with clouds still lingering in the mtns, and the continued possibility a few RA/SN showers. Highs range from around 40 in the mtns to the upper 40s in the S.
Long Term - Sunday Through Thursday
The focus one the extended period will be on the potential for heavy rain, strong winds, and high surf Monday night through Tuesday. The signal for a strong area of low pressure tracking west of the Appalachians into the Great Lakes has been present for several runs in global models without much change with the latest guidance.
Fair weather is expected Sunday as high pressure crosses southern New England with highs ranging in the upper 30s north to low 50s south. High pressure quickly shifts east of the area by Monday morning as northern and southern stream energy phase over the Ohio Valley.
Deterministic guidance has been quite consistent in developing a potent surface low over the central Appalachians Monday. The 00Z ensemble suite has tightened up with the track of the system with nearly all members bringing the low to our west through the eastern Great Lakes Monday night. Ahead of this system south to southeasterly winds will ramp up during the day Monday with precipitation breaking out from SW to NE Monday afternoon. Without much cold air in place and the westward track of the system this system remains primarily a rain event.
Models continue to show anomalously high PWAT (Precipitable Water) air advecting into the region and with strong isentropic upglide, periods of moderate to heavy rain seem likely. Ensembles are now showing probabilities near 100% of much of the area seeing over an inch of rain in a 24 hour period Monday night into Tuesday. There also continue to be strong signal for a potent low level jet between 50 to 60 kts at 950 mb out of the southeast. This LLJ will enhance rainfall amounts along southeast facing slopes as well as bring strong wind potential at the surface, especially along the coast.
Tides will be at the low end of the tide cycle, although the latest ESTOFS has slightly increased surge to 1.5 feet, so some splash-over will be possible with elevated nearshore waves.
Steady rain will transition to showers Tuesday afternoon as low pressure occludes over the eastern Great Lakes. Conditions will remain unsettled from the middle to latter half of next week with cyclonic flow persisting aloft.
SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for seas remains in place for the outer waters, but seas will very slowly subside this morning, and will fall below 5 ft this afternoon. Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conds will then hold through Sat.
Long Term...Quiet on the waters Sunday as high pressure passes to the south. Southeasterly winds increase and seas build Monday as low pressure tracks to the west with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions likely by Monday afternoon. Winds continue to increase Monday night with gales likely and seas will build to 15 ft by Tuesday morning. Winds will drop below 25 kts Tuesday night will seas will remain elevated into Wednesday.
NOAA Gray/Portland ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 1pm EST this afternoon for ANZ150- 152-154.