Cape Elizabeth ME to Merrimack River MA Marine Forecast
|Tonight...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers This Evening. A Slight Chance Of Tstms Until Early Morning. A Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm Until Early Morning.|
|Mon...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Mon Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Tue...S Winds Around 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Tue Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Wed...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Wed Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Thu...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Thu Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Fri...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming E 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Fri Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Seas Around 2 Ft. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Gray ME
340pm EDT Sunday September 25 2022
A trough of low pressure will move very slowly from over the Great Lakes region to New England through the middle of the week. Unsettled conditions will persist Monday through Thursday mainly over the north. There will likely be prolonged dry periods during this time as well. High pressure will follow for late in the week and to start out next weekend.
Near Term - Through Tonight
Showers will spread over the region through midnight, tapering after. Instability is quite weak moving into the region ahead of the low, and overall forcing is limited. Lowered thunder chances this evening and only to southern NH and up the ME coast.
Clouds have slowly lowered through the day as light rain has advanced into New England. Even the high clouds were enough to curb temps a bit today, and adjusted these down. With the warm front on the doorstep to the south, temps should hold relatively steady overnight amid the thickening cloud cover. This will be especially true along the coast where onshore flow will be mild.
Showers should taper quickly late tonight, with just a few remaining over the far western mountains.
Short Term - Monday Through Monday Night
Dry slot amid the broad low moves through Monday morning, and have brought rain chances down following NAM/HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) guidance.
There will be good surface heating tomorrow below otherwise cooling temps aloft. This will actually promote some decent low and mid level lapse rates across the region, around 6-7 c/km. Expect the development of scattered showers for the mountains, foothills, and interior by afternoon. There may be a few rumbles of thunder as well, but moisture/lift will be a limiting factor.
These should diurnally driven, and expect clouds to thin in the late evening hours. This will allow for cooler night with light winds.
Long Term - Tuesday Through Sunday
The long term portion of the forecast will be dominated by a very slow moving upper level trough moving out of the Great Lakes region. Through the middle of this week, operational models and ensemble solutions suggest this trough will become neutrally tilted on Tuesday with mainly diurnally driven scattered showers over northern areas. There may be enough instability for a stray rumble of thunder in portions of the mountains.
This system will be relatively moisture starved as it continues to nudge east on Wednesday. At the surface, a secondary cold front will cross the region. This front, along with a more favorable west to northwest upslope flow will allow for a better chance for showers in the north. Finally, by Thursday, the trough will begin to life out of the region. Instability will continue however with scattered rain showers in the mountains. A few snow showers may fall over the highest terrain. Across the south, it will mainly by dry during much of this period with a mix of sun and clouds.
Temperatures will begin on Tuesday with neutral temperature advection and mild readings in place. Expect 60s across the north to the lower 70s in the south. 60s will dominate on Wednesday and Thursday. By Friday, high pressure will build into our region promoting cooler temperatures.
Dry weather will continue on Saturday before the remains of TC Ian potentially pass south of our region Sunday. Model ensembles generally keep moisture south of our forecast area during this period.
A few wind gusts around 25 kt will be possible tonight, but otherwise below criteria. A short SCA (Small Craft Advisory) may be needed Monday night as SW flow increases along with wave heigheights in the outer coastal waters.
Dry conditions will persist for much of the extended period. Winds and seas will remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds.
NOAA Gray/Portland ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories