Marine Weather Net

Cape Elizabeth ME to Merrimack River MA Marine Forecast


THIS AFTERNOON

N
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

N
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

THU

N
WINDS
5 - 15
KNOTS

THU NIGHT

W
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ154 Forecast Issued: 956 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2020

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
This Afternoon...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.
Tonight...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.
Thu...N Winds 5 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming Nw 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.
Thu Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Fri...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft In The Morning, Then 1 Foot Or Less.
Fri Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Foot Or Less.
Sat...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. A Chance Of Rain Or Snow.
Sat Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Rain Or Snow.
Sun...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Snow Or Rain.
Sun Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Snow Or Rain.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
955am EST Wednesday Jan 29 2020

Synopsis
Dry weather is expected through the end of the work week. Low pressure will develop off the Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday and will track northeastward towards Nova Scotia Sunday. The current forecast is for the system to track far enough south and east of the area to only bring a chance of snow. Uncertainty remains in the track of the system with a farther westward track resulting in higher potential for impacts from this system.

Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
950amMinor changes to match the latest observational trends. Also upped high temperatures a couple of degrees as it looks like we will indeed see full sun all day. Seeing some clouds develop along the international border, but these are not expected to progress much further south than there.

Previously... Update...Minor changes to reflect latest observational trends.

Previous discussion...A thin layer of moisture has been stubbornly hanging on thru the night...with a cloud deck starting generally between 3000 and 4000 ft. As drier air moves in from the N this will continue to erode thru morning...and widespread sunshine is expected today. Highs are expected to be a little closer to normal than the past few days.

Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6pm Thursday
Another embedded trough will rotate around the backside of upper low off to the E. This will bring a little enhancement to CAA...mainly increasing wind gusts over the waters with little real sensible impact over land. High center builds overhead towards morning which should support cooler than guidance low temps in a good radiational set up. A recycled Pacific air mass will move in with the high...but shallow mixing under the center will keep temps close to normal anyway.

Long Term - Thursday Night Through Tuesday
Surface high pressure will crest over the area Friday for fair weather. On Saturday high pressure shifts east of the region while a 500 mb trough takes shape over the eastern US. Multiple impulses will rotate through this trough leading to cyclogensis off the East Coast Saturday with low pressure tracking northeastward towards the Canadian Maritimes by Sunday night. The track of this system will dictate the sensible weather Saturday night into Sunday with details regarding the uncertainty described below. Heigheights begin to build on the East Coast late Monday into Tuesday for warmer than normal conditions. An area of low pressure will approach the region from the west bringing a chance for precipitation towards the middle next week.

**Low confidence potential coastal system late this weekend**

Deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to show the development of low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday tracking northeastward towards Nova Scotia Sunday. Recent runs of deterministic guidance suggest that the track of this system will be slightly too far to our east to bring significant impacts. Model ensembles, especially the ECMWF, do show enough members tracking close enough to our area to warrant careful consideration of this system.

As mentioned in previous discussions there remains uncertainty in the evolution and track of this system due to multiple pieces of energy moving through the East Coast trough Saturday. The question is whether these pieces of energy can phase at the right time to form a stronger system closer to our area. Another factor to consider is upstream blocking as the upper level pattern remains fairly progressive with the trough quickly moving offshore with heigheights building over the East Coast starting Monday. Model ensembles show a neutral NAO trending to a slightly -NAO over the next few days with a stronger -NAO leading to more blocking and possibly a closer storm track. Models also show an upper low near Newfoundland Saturday morning. If this upper low can linger into Sunday providing an area of confluence, a more westward storm track is also possible. Overall there a lot of moving parts to this system with current trends favoring a near miss. Will continue to monitor as this system has been visible for several days now and it is still several days from when we could see impacts from this system.

Early next week heigheights build over the East Coast for warmer than normal conditions. An open wave will move from the central Plains towards New England the middle of next week with trends favoring wintry precipitation in the mountains and rain across southern areas.

Marine
Short Term
Weak trough crosses the waters tonight...especially over Ern zones. It looks like enough Cold Air Advection in place to bring winds and seas up above SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds for a time late today and overnight. I issued a SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for the waters outside the bays thru Thu morning.

Long Term...Quiet conditions expected Friday into Saturday. SCA conditions are possible Saturday night into Sunday as low pressure tracks SE of Cape Cod towards Nova Scotia. The track of this system is still uncertain with a stronger system and a farther westward track still possible. Strong northerly winds will turn westerly Monday as the system intensifies in the Canadians Maritimes likely continuing SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions into Monday before winds relax Monday afternoon.

NOAA Gray/Portland ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
ME...None. NH...None.
MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory from 4pm this afternoon to 7am EST Thursday for ANZ150-152-154.