Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay Marine Forecast
|This Afternoon...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
|Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening. Showers Likely After Midnight. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Tue...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Tue Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Evening. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Wed...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Wed Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Thu...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
|Thu Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Evening. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
|Fri...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Fri Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Seas Are Reported As Significant Wave Height, Which Is The Average Of The Highest Third Of The Waves. Individual Wave Heights May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
151pm EDT Monday September 23 2019
Hot and humid with breezy SW winds today. Chance of showers overnight.High pressure settles in Tuesday and Wednesday with mild days and cool nights. Swells from Jerry will cause increased rip current risk along the coast, especially Monday through Wednesday. Another front approaches Thursday into Thursday evening, with dry conditions returning Friday.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
Light showers continue to apporach western MA this afternoon ahead of the approaching cold front. Surface observations and satellite imagery place the front in western NY at 145PM. It should reach western MA/CT by this evening and eastern MA in the early morning hours. Best instability and forcing exists in western NY which is where we're seeing the only thunder associated with the front at this time. We'll have enough instability to see some thunderstorms this evening, but generally ~500 J/kg or less.
Gusty winds continue to mix down to the surface, mainly on Cape Cod and along the south shore of MA/RI. SW winds are gusting 25-35 mph. These breezy winds will continue into the evening before tapering off overnight.
Very warm start to the day, and expecting another unusually warm day. Cannot rule out a few 90 degree readings. These will not be records though, since the Boston record was 96 set in 1895, BDL record was 93 set in 1914, and the PVD record was 92 set in 1970.
Humidity will increase as well. Looking at showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop across western MA towards mid to late afternoon, then move east into this evening ahead of a cold front. Locally heavy downpours are possible. Not ruling out a decent soaking for some locations with amounts up around half an inch. Hopefully some relief for those with dried out lawns.
Increasing swell from Tropical Storm Jerry should arrive later today. This means another period of an elevated risk for dangerous rip currents along the south coast. Will continue the High Rip Risk statement through today.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6pm Tuesday
More widespread risk for showers and thunderstorms will be this evening and overnight. Some locally heavy rainfall is possible with the stronger showers and thunderstorms. This front should reach the coast late tonight, before moving offshore Tuesday. Above normal temperatures will continue, but not be quite as high as today.
Lingering showers towards the Cape and islands during the morning hours. More showers will be possible towards NW MA as a cold pool(a region of relatively cold air) aloft moves over the Great Lakes during the afternoon.
Winds to shift to W during the midday and afternoon hours with some gusts up to 20 kt possible along S coastal areas.
Swell from Tropical Storm Jerry continues to build. The risk for dangerous rip currents will likely need to expand and be extended through Tuesday.
Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Sunday
*/ Highlights... - Low chance of showers late Thursday into Thursday evening - Warming up considerably by the weekend into early next week - Overall temperatures above average, and a very dry forecast
*/ Overview... Mild, dry pattern. Active tropics assisted by a phase 1 MJO that are drawn N into the mid-latitude flow yielding chaos. Post-tropical in becoming baroclinic, contribution of latent heat release, warmth is introduced poleward as the longwave pattern becomes amplified at a point where initially +EPO / +WPO cascades energy E along a strong jet eastward into the CONUS from prevailing low pressure over the N Pacific. Rossby waves manifesting, greater transfers between the N pole and equator, blocks emerging over AK and across Greenland, the pattern is slowed briefly by the beginning of October with momentum transfers (i.e., wind) and subsequent longwave pattern undulations. The CONUS trough.ridge by next weekend into early the following week, near climatological-record percentiles, +1-2 standard deviation over the MS/OH Valley, biggest question is how far N/E the ridge builds into New England. Ensemble spread noted in a multitude of height and temperature fields yet notably the high-skill deterministic solution exhibits tendency towards the high/warm-end of the member guidance. Forecast spread mainly in part due to longwave pattern uncertainty, the N Atlantic block in particular whether if further W putting the NE CONUS beneath NW flow. Quite possible we could see upper 80 to low 90 highs with very little if any rainfall. Max temperatures that would be record-breaking. Coinciding with CPC earlier and now latest 6-10 day forecasts. Not a good setup when we're already experiencing "abnormally-dry" conditions in spots across New England. Indications further into October that Rossby waves pinch-off and a flat-pattern returns ushering in near-seasonable conditions per ensemble, however considerable spread remains. For now increasing confidence that as September ends and October begins it will still feel like Summer as opposed to Autumn. Keeping a mostly dry forecast. Leaning towards warmer forecast guidance. Humidity will also make a return.
*/ Discussion... Through Thursday night... Quick note on the details. Rain chances late Thursday into Thursday night. However heigheights rising, indications of a flat N-stream wave, perhaps some mid-level subsidence. Outcomes along a sweeping cold front being squashed out prior to arrival into S New England with synoptics shunted N and lack of support to maintaining convection, if any. Low chance Probability of Precipitation sneaking into N/W MA and CT towards late afternoon into evening.
Friday onward... It's after a brief period of high pressure Friday pushing S/E off- shore that return S flow through the weekend beneath rising heigheights and low-mid level SW warm advection that we see temperatures rise, potentially record-breaking, into the 1st of October. This along with dewpoints into the 60s, it will feel like Summer rather than Autumn.
Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Tuesday/...High confidence.
SW winds will increase to 20-25 kt with a few gusts to 30 kt not out of the question late in the day, especially along the near shore of Cape Cod and the Islands. This preceding a cold front which will sweep through late tonight into Tuesday ahead of which showers are forecast some of which will contain locally heavy downpours. Visibility could fall as low as 1 to 2 miles.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES are in effect for most waters. Increasing swell from Tropical Storm Jerry today through Tuesday.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...Moderate confidence.
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Wednesday through Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt.
NOAA Boston MA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. MA...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for MAZ023-024. RI...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for RIZ008.
Small Craft Advisory until 3am EDT Tuesday for ANZ232>234. Small Craft Advisory until 10pm EDT this evening for ANZ231. Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for ANZ236. Small Craft Advisory until 8am EDT Tuesday for ANZ235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Tuesday for ANZ250. Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EDT Tuesday for ANZ254>256.