Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay Marine Forecast
|Overnight...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas Around 5 Ft.|
|Wed...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Seas Around 5 Ft.|
|Wed Night...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 5 Ft.|
|Thu...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming E In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Thu Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt After Midnight. Seas Around 3 Ft, Building To 5 Ft After Midnight. Rain.|
|Fri...E Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming N 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 8 To 9 Ft. Rain.|
|Fri Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas Around 9 Ft, Subsiding To 7 Ft After Midnight.|
|Sat...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 5 Ft, Subsiding To 3 Ft In The Afternoon.|
|Sat Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Evening. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sun...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Sun Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Evening. Seas Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. Seas Are Reported As Significant Wave Height, Which Is The Average Of The Highest Third Of The Waves. Individual Wave Heights May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
953pm EST Tuesday Nov 13 2018
Synopsis: Low pressure moves off through the Maritimes as a broad northwest surface flow brings colder air to New England. High pressure builds over our region Wednesday and remains into Thursday. The high drifts north during Thursday as the next low pressure system approaches from the south late in the day. A wintry mix will be possible with this storm Thursday night into Friday. A weak system may bring scattered snow showers Sunday night into Monday.
Near Term - Until 6am Wednesday Morning
Northern stream trough moves across Canada tonight and eventually turns the upper flow more northwest. The northwest flow will bring colder air across Southern New England overnight. This cold air advection should maintain low level mixing, bringing gusts of 20 kts to the surface over CT and bring gusts to 30 kt over northern border areas of Massachusetts, especially Northeast Mass.
Satellite images show a broad area of mid and high clouds moving over the region for part of the night. Drier air brough south in the developing northwest flow will thin the clouds overnight, with guidance suggesting clearing by morning.
Observed temps at 9pm were 3-4F milder than forecast values. We nudged hourly and overnight min temps up 1-2F in response to this. Overall range of forecast continues to be mid 20s to lower 30s. We are maintaining wind gusts at 20-30 kt/25-35 mph through the night
Short Term - 6am Wednesday Morning Through Wednesday Night
Some of the coldest air of the season will be moving into the region Wednesday and Wednesday night as arctic air flows into the region behind the upper trough. With the upper trough axis to the northeast and with increasing subsidence the area is expected to remain nearly cloud free Wednesday and Wednesday night. Cold advection will continue Wednesday and will be weakening after 15Z. Thus mixing will become more limited. Winds and gusts are expected to remain below advisory levels. Even if mixed to the top of the layer winds will be briefly near advisory levels Wednesday morning.
With the center of the high nearly overhead winds will decouple and become light, allowing for good radiational cooling
Long Term - Thursday Through Tuesday
Highlights... * Low pressure late Thu into Fri with rain/snow/sleet possible * Another weak system may bring snow showers Sunday night/Monday
Details... Thursday and Friday... As the high crosses northern New England Thursday, winds shift around to E-SE during the day. Clouds will push in from S-N during the day, and will steadily lower and thicken especially across S coastal areas. With the souther periphery of the high in place, will be tough to get the leading edge of moisture working into the region until Thu night. Might see some some light rain push into the S coast toward sunset. Cold air remains in place, with temps only reaching the 30s, except the lower 40s along the S coast.
The H5 cutoff low slowly moves E-NE across the mid Atlc states Thu night but, as the high to the NE slowly moving to the Maritimes, increasing easterly flow will help feed in moisture which should allow precipitation to spread across the region. Big question will be PTYPEs as the onset of the precip. Have a mixed bag of precipitation moving in even along the coast to start, but should change over to rain with a slow temp rise with the onshore flow off the milder waters. Timing of the changeover, and exact amounts of snow/sleet are still up in the air. Temps inland may fall back to the 20s Thu evening, especially across the higher inland terrain, but should start to rise after midnight as E winds increase. Temps should rise above freezing across most areas during Fri, but again questions whether the cold air will scour out of the interior valleys and the higher terrain. Something to monitor closely.
Strong low level jet moving toward S coastal areas, Cape Cod and the islands after midnight Thu night through Fri. Could see E-SE wind gusts up to 35-40 kt, highest across the islands Friday morning, possibly to midday. May need wind headlines for a time there.
Expect the surface low to cross close to or across Cape Cod or S coastal Mass around midday Friday, then should exit rather quickly across the Gulf of Maine. However, precipitation may linger through the day, though should start tapering off late Fri afternoon across western areas.
Friday night through Monday... Any leftover precipitation across central and eastern areas should end Fri evening. Otherwise, a nearly zonal fast flow aloft will bring quickly improving conditions across the region. Lows Fri night will run close to seasonal normals, in the upper 20s and 30s, except 35-40 along the coast. Winds shift to W-NW with gusts up to 25-30 kt across Cape Cod and the islands early, but should diminish.
Will see somewhat milder temps as compared to the previous few days on Saturday, but will still run around 5 degrees below normal. Another short wave approaches from the W, but should be mainly dry as it moves across the region late Sat or Sat night. However, this should bring another shot of colder air across the region by Sunday with highs only in the 30s well inland to 40-45 along the coastal plain.
Another short wave may work E Sunday night into Monday as a mid level trough starts to dig across the Great Lakes. With temps falling back to the 20s to around 30 Sunday night, may see snow showers move across with this weak, fast moving system. May see leftover snow showers early Mon, then conditions should improve, though it will remain cold.
Gale force gusts will continue across most of the forecast waters through Wednesday, especially the outer waters by Wednesday afternoon. Gale warnings continue through Wednesday most waters. A Small Craft Advisory continues for Narragansett Bay.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/... Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain.
Thursday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain.
Friday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Chance of rain.
Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas
NOAA Boston MA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. MA...None. RI...None.
Gale Warning until 5pm EST Wednesday for ANZ232>234-256.
Gale Warning from 1am to 3pm EST Wednesday for ANZ230.
Gale Warning until 7pm EST Wednesday for ANZ231-250-251-254- 255.
Small Craft Advisory until 5pm EST Wednesday for ANZ236.
Gale Warning until 3pm EST Wednesday for ANZ235-237