Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: E 2 Ft At 9 Seconds And Nw 1 Foot At 3 Seconds. |
| Tonight...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: N 2 Ft At 4 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Sun...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Sun Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: E 4 Ft At 16 Seconds And Ne 3 Ft At 6 Seconds. Showers Likely After Midnight. |
| Mon...Se Winds Around 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: E 5 Ft At 17 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 4 Seconds. Showers. Patchy Fog In The Morning With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Mon Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw With Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: E 5 Ft At 16 Seconds And E 3 Ft At 10 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Tue And Tue Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. |
| Wed And Wed Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Seas Are Reported As Significant Wave Height, Which Is The Average Of The Highest Third Of The Waves. Individual Wave Heights May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1015am EDT Sat Oct 5 2024 Synopsis An isolated shower early this morning gives way to plenty of sunshine with very pleasant temperatures later this morning and afternoon. A cold front moves through Southern New England late Sunday night into Monday, bringing a period of rain showers. This cold front will usher in a cooler, fall-like weather pattern for the rest of the work week. Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening 10 AM Some spotty showers moved through the Boston area over the last hour and have since moved offshore. The rest of Saturday is expected to remain dry as a drier airmass settles in. Previous forecast continues to be on track, with highs still forecast to be in the lower to mid-70s throughout the region. No significant changes were made aside from using updated guidance, which kept the current trends essentially the same. Previous discussion... A shortwave/weak cold front was crossing the region early this morning. There is not much deep layer moisture/forcing with this weak front...so radar just indicated a brief isolated shower or two during the early this morning. Most locations will not see measurable rainfall. There was also some patchy fog mainly towards the southeast New England coast...but this will burn off fairly quickly in the next couple of hours. Rapid clearing is expected behind the front by lunchtime which will set us up for a beautiful mid-fall afternoon. Abundant sunshine will aid in deep mixing, with 925mb temps between 8-10C, as temperatures warm again into the lower to middle 70s; with perhaps a few upper 70s in the southern Connecticut River Valley. Also anticipating that winds will shift dramatically from the SSW to the NW and eventually north this afternoon and evening, which will allow a much drier airmass to trickle into SNE this afternoon and evening. Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6pm Sunday Tonight... With dry airmass in place, light northerly flow, and clear skies, tonight looks to be a textbook radiator. Dewpoints in the 40s will act as a lower bound to temps, and with strong radiation, it is quite likely that dews fall into the upper 30s across pockets of interior MA. Thus, opted to populate the overnight low temps with CONSMOS guidance, with the expectations that a few localities in the terrain of western MA dip below 40F. Urban heat islands will likely be the saving grace for Boston, which looks to remain in the 50s overnight. Sunday... Pleasant and tranquil conditions will extend into Sunday morning. A few different mechanisms will increase cloud cover on Sunday, the first being developing onshore flow across eastern MA and the second being another approaching shortwave from the west. Thus, expect more clouds on Sunday compared to Saturday with some mid to low clouds possible for the immediate eastern MA coastline after ~16Z. As with many days over the last week, some isolated sprinkles may possibly accompany these lower ceilings, but are not expected to pose much of a threat to outdoor activities. By late Sunday afternoon and early evening, high clouds will develop from west to east, though any precipitation associated with the approaching front will hold off until well after 00Z. Temps will be seasonable to a few degrees above normal for likely the last time in the next several days, warming into the mid 60s to perhaps 70; warmest again in the CT River Valley. Long Term - Sunday Night Through Friday Key Points... * Showers late Sunday night into Mon * Mainly dry but cool/fall-like temps Tuesday through Fri * Some frost possible at times next week away from the urban centers Details... Sunday night and Monday... An approaching shortwave/cold front will increase the forcing for ascent late Sunday night into Mon. A modest southerly LLJ of 25 to 30 knots at 925 mb with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) nearing 1.25 inches will result in a enough forcing/moisture for a period of widespread showers late Sunday night into Mon. Guidance shows that much of the region may pickup between 0.25 and 0.75 inches rain. We will have to see how this pans out...but we could use the rain. We also can not rule out an embedded isolated t-storm or two with some marginal instability. The clouds and showers will probably hold high temps in the 60s...but may see a few areas near 70 in the CT River Valley. Tuesday through Friday... Amplifying closed upper level low across Quebec will allow a deep northeast trough to develop. The result will be our first real taste of cool fall-like weather. 850T will generally range from -2C to +2C...so high temps will generally range from the upper 50s in the high terrain to the lower to middle 60s elsewhere much of next week. Temps may even be a few degrees cooler than that on Thu with a reinforcing shot of cool air. It will also be a bit breezy during the daylight hours...so definitely a fall-like feel. Overnight low temps should bottom out well down into the 30s a few of the nigheights in the outlying locations...where some frost is possible. Even the Urban Heat Islands of Boston and Providence should see overnight lows in the lower to middle 40s. Generally dry weather is expected...but given shortwave energy and cold pool(a region of relatively cold air) aloft expect a lot of strato-cu during the afternoons. There may be a brief spot shower or two...but for all intensive purposes it will mainly be dry. Marine Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Saturday...High Confidence Scattered showers possible early Saturday morning into Saturday mid-day, though showers may linger across the eastern outer waters into Saturday evening. Winds shift behind passing front to the NW Saturday morning; winds less than 25 kts. Waves 2-4 ft. Saturday Night...High Confidence Winds 10-20 kts with higher winds confined to the outer waters. Seas grow to 5-6ft overnight tonight, prompting the issuance of a SCA (Small Craft Advisory) from 06Z and beyond. Sunday... High Confidence Winds less than 25kt but seas across the outer waters continue to range from 4-6ft. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) continues for the outer waters through the day Sunday, and beyond. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers, isolated thunderstorms. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. NOAA Boston MA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 2am Sunday to 8am EDT Tuesday for ANZ250-254-255. |
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