Port Clyde ME to Cape Elizabeth ME Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Mon...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Mon Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Tue...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming S 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Tue Night...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Showers.|
|Wed...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Showers Likely In The Morning.|
|Wed Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Thu...N Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Thu Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Fri...Sw Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Fri Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Gray ME
318pm EDT Sunday July 3 2022
High pressure will remain in control of our weather through Independence Day with plenty of sun and seasonably warm temperatures. Showers associated with a warm front will work into parts of the area by late Monday night with low pressure crossing the region Tuesday and Tuesday night bringing widespread showers and the chance for some thunderstorms. High pressure returns on Wednesday bringing dry and seasonable conditions through Thursday.
Near Term - Through Tonight
High Impact Weather Potential: None.
Pattern: Longwave trough exists over eastern North America early this afternoon with the shortwave responsible for our morning cloud cover now moving well east of the area. At the surface, a large area of high pressure is centered over the Great Lakes and will build south and east into the Mid Atlantic region for tonight. This will continue dry northwesterly flow across the region with little in the way of sensible weather impacts expected overnight. Primary forecast concerns therefore will be on overnight low temperatures and whether we can develop any valley fog.
Through this evening: Very quiet weather this afternoon with a few fair weather CU which increase in coverage as you go north. Very dry boundary layer airmass in place as well with dewpoints in the 40s. Outside of a potential sprinkle reaching the international border from instability-driven showers over Quebec we should see the CU field diminish this evening with temperatures beginning to fall in the dry airmass. Expect 8pm temperatures to reside in the 60s in the mountains...around 70 in the foothills... and in the lower to middle 70s to the south.
Tonight: High pressure will make it/s closest approach weakening the surface gradient and...with a dry airmass in place...allow for good radiational cooling conditions. A weak mid level shortwave will brush our northern zones overnight but with no sensible impact given the dry airmass. Thus...outside of some cirrus spilling overhead in the northwest flow...expect mostly clear skies. Crossover temperatures will be rather low given our afternoon dewpoint observations and therefore expect any fog to be rather isolated and not a significant concern. These dewpoint values do make a good floor for overnight lows and following close to the statistical guidance which is at the low end of the envelope suggests lows in the 40s in the mountains...as well as the valleys to the south...with lower/middle 50s elsewhere.
Short Term - Monday Through Monday Night
High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.
Pattern: Longwave trough axis pushes east of our longitude Monday and Monday night with northwesterly flow at mid levels and gradually building heights. High pressure moves south of the region by Monday night which allows a mid level warm front to advance towards the area bringing our next threat of precipitation. These precipitation chances will form the primary focus for this forecast period.
Monday: Northwesterly flow aloft continues as high pressure southwest of the region moves from central PA to start the day to a position south of the southern New England coast by evening. A weak shortwave will brush northern areas and while this will likely cause an uptick in cloudiness...model sounding profiles remain very dry in the boundary layer and therefore expect that we/ll remain dry. T8s range from +8C across the mountains to +12C across southwestern NH. This suggests highs in the lower 80s across southern areas with lower-middle 70s in the mountains...very close to where we were today. A westerly breeze will continue given high pressure south and west of the region.
Monday Night: Mid level warm front looks to sit from NW to SE across the forecast area with increasing moisture to its south and west. While a significant area of convection and a surface low pressure system will be well west of the region over the western Great Lakes...there is some agreement within the deterministic/ensemble guidance suite of a 35-40kt LLJ in a region of moist isentropic ascent allowing for some showers to develop across the northern portions of the forecast area after midnight. The boundary layer will still be rather dry...so no significant Quantitative Precipitation Forecast is likely before daybreak. Regardless of the amount of shower activity...the significant increase in cloud cover will result in a warmer night...with lows in the 50s in the mountains and lower 60s over southern NH/southwestern ME.
Long Term - Tuesday Through Sunday
Overview... Low pressure passes through the area Tuesday bringing widespread showers to the area. Gusty winds set in overnight, particularly over the waters and coastal areas before high pressure and clearing comes in for the rest of the week with seasonal temperatures. Another chance of showers comes Friday/Saturday before high pressure returns Sunday.
Tuesday's low continues to be a complex forecast with several moving parts which are broken down below.
Upper Level Dynamics: A cluster of upper level lows over Newfoundland and a broad, low amplitude ridge over the Central US set up the upper level pattern for the week. New England stays just west of the upper level trough axis as three shortwaves rotate around each other creating what essentially amounts to a stalled upper level low over Newfoundland through the week. A couple jet streaks will pass through with each of these shortwaves, the first of which will be making its way out of New England as the extended period starts Tuesday morning. By the evening this jet will be positioned with the right entrance region over the CWA providing large scale ascent. Another, less strong, jet streak moves in over the day Wednesday followed closely by a stronger streak for Friday. Upper level heigheights finally start gaining more amplitude and progression towards the weekend as the trough axis deepens and crosses the area Sunday.
Forcing: The first of this week's shortwaves swings in through the day Tuesday with the vorticity maximum passing overhead Wednesday morning. This will help create large scale lift ahead of the shortwave in conjunction with ascent from the right entrance region of the jet streak. Both the NAM and GFS show an elongated swath of frontogenesis sloping northward across northern NH and the western ME mountains Tuesday afternoon, quickly passing through. All of this will help deepen the surface low and enhance rainfall over the north.
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast: Precipitation starts moving in Tuesday morning along a warm front to the north with a possible MCS remnant riding along a trailing warm front and passing to the south. The warm front will bring the first wave of precipitation to the north bringing some much needed rain to these regions. In terms of rainfall amounts, there will likely be some hotspots that show up over the next couple forecast periods, however current guidance supports areas south of the mountains receiving 0.25 - 0.5 inches and 0.5 to 1 inch over the mountains and north.
Winds: Recent guidance has increased support for the development of a LLJ Tuesday evening oriented southwest to northeast. The GFS has been trending stronger with time and the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) has been moving closer to the GFS solutions. Now that the NAM covers the timeframe as well, model soundings indicate a 50-60kt jet around 925mb, primarily over the waters. A low level inversion which sets up overnight keeps most of the jet off the surface, however strong gusts could still break through. There is still potential that a gale watch will be needed with sustained winds over the ocean nearing 34kts.
Northerly flow and high pressure comes back in on Wednesday through the end of the week with seasonal temperatures in the low 80s to 70s. A weak front approaches Friday/Saturday bringing a chance of showers before high pressure and drier conditions return sunday.
Light westerly winds continue through early Monday before shifting southwesterly and strengthening by Monday afternoon. A few gusts over 20kts will be possible Monday afternoon and evening with winds diminishing Monday night.
Showers pass over the waters Tuesday with winds picking up through the day. Winds could be gusting into gale force criteria Tuesday night with at least a SCA, possibly a gale watch being needed. Winds and waves calm down Wednesday morning for the rest of the week.
NOAA Gray/Portland ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories