Port Clyde ME to Cape Elizabeth ME Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Areas Of Dense Fog. A Slight Chance Of Showers Late.|
|Tue...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Areas Of Fog. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Tue Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Showers Likely, Mainly In The Evening.|
|Wed...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming W In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Wed Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Thu...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Thu Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Fri...S Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Fri Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sat...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft, Building To 3 To 5 Ft In The Afternoon.|
|Sat Night...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Gray ME
1031pm EDT Monday Jun 21 2021
A cold front approaches from the west with showers and storms possible this evening. Some storms could be strong to severe, especially over northern and western areas. The cold front gradually pushes east out over the waters late Tuesday, then high pressure returns for a cooler and quiet end to the week. The heat and humidity begins to build once again this upcoming weekend.
Near Term - Tonight
1030PM Remnant line of storms is now approaching the NH border. This will continue to weaken as it arrives, although the strongest storms will likely skirt far southwest NH.
845PM After coordination with Storm Prediction Center and neighboring offices, the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for northwest NH has been canceled. The next line of storms, if it arrives, will more likely affect southern areas and has a substantially less chance of being severe.
830PM Next line of storms is entering Vermont, although forecast models show most of this falling apart as it arrives in New Hampshire. Have made minor adjustments to the forecast with this update as forecast thinking is largely the same.
545PM Forecast thinking hasn't changed a whole lot. Line of storms with a few supercells ahead of it will roll into the forecast area from the west over the next few hours, although it is not expected to last long after it arrives. Meanwhile, fog has moved in on the Midcoast and a Dense Fog Advisory will be issued.
ORIGINAL Moderately unstable and well-sheared air mass in place across the forecast area as of this Monday afternoon. The atmosphere is ripe for severe thunderstorms. However, timing is an issue because the best forcing for ascent remains well to our west in the vicinity of the storms in western NY. This puts into question what our storm coverage will be over the next 8 hours or so. For the time being, strongest storms are likely to remain just north of our border with Canada as well as over upstate NY and Vermont. Cannot rule out isolated storms through 22z but the vast majority of the forecast area will remain quiet.
As the evening begins, better lift will enter the forecast area from the west and should allow a few strong to severe storms to enter the watch area across northern and western NH. It'll likely be even later for areas farther south and east. By then, heating will be done and the boundary layer should begin to stabilize somewhat. So if the convection currently to our west doesn't organize greatly and have a well-balanced cold pool(a region of relatively cold air) with it, the storms entering the CT River Valley south of the watch area will likely weaken and eventually dissipate as they potentially reach central NH. However, a few storms there could be severe upon entering the forecast area.
For southeastern NH and our Maine zones south of the mountains, the chances for thunder or much rain for that matter doesn't look good. Storms should fall apart for the most part before entering these areas although a few rumbles will be possible b prior to 06z or so.
To summarize, the best chances for severe weather will be in the current severe thunderstorm watch area northeastward to the western ME mountains. The next best chance will be to the south of the watch area along the CT River. Damaging winds will be the main threat although heavy downpours and localized flooding will be possible if and where storms train across western zones. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
Otherwise, fog and/or low clouds will move inland early on this evening, mainly northeast of Portland and perhaps into portions of central ME. It could be locally dense on the Midcoast.
Short Term - 6am Tuesday Morning Through Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy skies are expected on Tuesday in the wake of a cold front that should have moved just offshore around 12z. The question remains how much anafrontal precipitation will occur during the day? The solutions continue to vary with the 12z ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) leading the pack with a good dose of rainfall Tuesday afternoon. Did not go that heavy handed at this time and stayed closer to the GFS solution for now.
Skies clear out Tuesday night as high pressure moves in.
Long Term - Wednesday Through Monday
Surface high pressure will build to our southwest Wednesday with cooler and much drier air funneling into northern New England on northwest winds. High pressure will crest over the area Wednesday night before settling offshore through the end of the work week. This will bring fair weather, comfortable humidity levels and temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s with cooler conditions along the coast Thursday and Friday. Going into the weekend a long wave trough at 500 mb deepens to our west as heigheights rise along the west coast of North America. This will set up deep southwest flow allowing for temperatures and humidity to rise Saturday into Sunday. With the increasing heat and humidity will come the threat for showers and thunderstorms with the best chances for precipitation holding off until Sunday.
A cold front will be well offshore Wednesday morning with breezy northwest winds ushering in cooler and drier air. Downsloping winds will allow coastal areas to be the warm spot with highs into the mid 70s there to upper 60s across the north. With mostly sunny skies and dewpoints in the 40s it will be a nice late June day. High pressure crests over the region Wednesday night. Clear skies and light winds will maximize what radiational cooling we can achieve on one of the shortest nigheights of the year with lows dropping to near 40F in the north to near 50F across the south.
High pressure shifts offshore Thursday and will maintain fair weather into Friday. Persistent southerly flow around the western edge of the high will keep coastal areas cooler than the interior and will lead to a steady rise in humidity, although dewpoints will not reach the 60s until Friday night. Heat and humidity builds Saturday into Sunday as a long wave trough deepens to our west. A frontal system will become established within the eastern side of the trough and will slowly advance eastward. This frontal system looks to remain to our west through the weekend with Saturday looking to have better chances of being dry than Sunday. Have steadily increased Probability of Precipitation from 20-40 percent Saturday to 40-60 percent Sunday. Ensembles show high probabilities of PWATs (Precipitable Waters) exceeding 1.5 inches and instability greater than 500 J/kg Sunday afternoon so this looks to be a time to watch for strong thunderstorms and heavy rain.
South winds will increase this evening ahead of an approaching cold front which will also elevate seas to 4-6 ft. A SCA (Small Craft Advisory) is currently in effect for the outer waters. Gusts up to 30 kts may develop over all waters when a stronger jet moves overhead later this evening. Winds decrease to below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels as low pressure enters the Gulf of Maine early Tuesday, but waves may prolong SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions. Low pressure shifts east toward the Bay of Fundy by the end of Tuesday with an offshore wind in its wake.
Long Term...Winds and seas expected to remain below SCA thresholds as high pressure crosses the waters Wednesday into Thursday and remains just to the east of the waters into Saturday.
NOAA Gray/Portland ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 8am EDT Tuesday for MEZ022-024>028. NH...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Tuesday for ANZ150-152-154.