Port Clyde ME to Cape Elizabeth ME Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...S Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Areas Of Fog With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Mon...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Areas Of Fog In The Morning. Vsby Variable To Less Than One Quarter Nm In The Morning.|
|Mon Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. Patchy Fog. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Tue...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Morning, Then Showers And Tstms Likely In The Afternoon. Some Tstms May Produce Heavy Rainfall. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm In The Morning.|
|Tue Night...Sw Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Showers And Tstms. Some Tstms May Produce Heavy Rainfall. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm After Midnight.|
|Wed...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm In The Morning.|
|Wed Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Thu...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
|Thu Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
|Fri...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
|Fri Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Gray ME
1243am EDT Monday July 16 2018
Synopsis: A weak high pressure system over the area this morning will push offshore during the day. This will result in warm and humid weather with many areas seeing high temperatures well into the 80s with the possibility of lower 90s over southern New Hampshire. A seabreeze may develop along the coast during the afternoon with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms away from the coast. A strong cold front will arrive Tuesday, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms to the region. Cooler and drier conditions will return for Wednesday Through Friday.
Near Term - Until 6am This Morning
1241am Update... Have issued a coastal flood statement for the 2am high tide overnight given current water levels which are running a few inches above tide forecasts and will therefore likely touch flood stage around 2am. Otherwise...have matched early morning temperature/dewpoint/wave height forecasts to recent observations.
1120pm Update... Minor adjustments to the forecast to remove the last of the PoPs. Temperatures are on track. Still expecting widespread fog tonight which will be dense at times.
915pm Update... Only a few isolated showers left over southeastern portions of our CWA at this hour, and these will continue to weaken as they move southeast. Made some changes to PoPs, dew points and winds to account for latest observations; otherwise the current forecast looks to be on track.
505pm Update... Made a few changes to Probability of Precipitation and sky cover based on current radar and satellite analysis as well as newest CAM runs. Cells will be weakening and moving offshore with time. One severe storm continues to pulse SW of Manchester and is bringing heavy rain and wind damage to the area. Hail is also likely although we have only received pea sized reports so far.
Also adjusted temperatures and dew points to match current obs.
Previous discussion... GOES water vapor imagery shows shortwave impulse will exit the area along with scattered convection by evening. Morning raob and modified forecast soundings support a few stronger cells with strong gusty winds and hail next few hours. Otherwise...a quiet night with low clouds and fogs once again along the coastal plain...with some patchy fog and low cloud elsewhere...especially where we've seen heavier downpours today. Lows tonight will be mainly in the lower and mid 60s
Short Term - 6pm This Morning Through 6pm Tuesday
Monday a slow increase in the southwesterly flow develops at the surface/aloft bringing further warm air advection to the area with increasing dewpoints. The increasing flow will be in response to a digging long wave trough over the western Great Lakes. During the afternoon ample surface heating of the air mass will destabilize the air mass enough for scattered convection to develop. Temps will reach well into the 80s over most areas and even some lower 90s over southern interior areas of both Maine and New Hampshire. A seabreeze along the coast will help keep things a bit cooler there. Current forecast keeps us below heat advisory level...even in southern New Hampshire.
Scattered convection will continue tomorrow night in the warm...humid airmass ahead of an approaching cold front
Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Sunday
A Strong cold front will cross the region on Tuesday bringing widespread thunderstorms with heavy rain. Behind the front, cooler air will be in place as high pressure dominates through the end of the week. Another low pressure center may bring rain for the end of next weekend.
Tuesday will see a trough of low pressure moving out of Hudson Bay push a surface cold front through the region. Ahead of this front, expect a warm and sticky airmass with dewpoints into the lower 70s and temperatures approaching 90 in the south providing oppressively muggy conditions. The approaching front will initiate convection and cloud cover keeping temperatures from reaching heat advisory criteria. This warm and humid airmass will provide plenty of instability for thunderstorms and widespread storms with heavy rainfall are expected. With Precipitable Water values near 2" and a deep warm rain layer flash flooding will be a concern with these storms and a flash flood watch may be needed.
Additionally the upper level jet moving through will be increasing throughout the day providing sufficient shear for more organized storms to form. The warm temperatures will keep hail from being a large threat however damaging winds, and a brief spin up tornado are possible as the line moves through.
Behind the front well see cooler and drier air building in along with high pressure right through the end of the week. On Wednesday the post-frontal northwesterly flow will hold through the day but by Thursday look for a sea breeze developing along the coast. The high pressure and afternoon sea breeze will continue through the end of the week with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the low 80s.
The next chance for widespread precipitation will be on the weekend when a low pressure system moves up the Ohio river valley into the Northeast.
Short Term /through Monday Night/... Quiet conditions over the waters tonight. Areas of fog can be expected to develop as warmer more humid air moves northward over the cool waters. Late Monday will see somewhat of an increase in the south flow ahead of an approaching cold front.
Long Term: A cold front will cross the waters Tuesday evening bringing brief thunderstorms with gusty winds. High pressure will build in across the waters through the end of the week
Tides / Coastal Flooding
The area continues to be in a astronomically high tide for one more cycle later tonight. With continued near calm conditions leading to almost no wave action we are not expecting any problems with the high tide late tonight
NOAA Gray/Portland ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None