Port Clyde ME to Cape Elizabeth ME Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt This Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Tonight...Sw Winds 5 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Tue...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S 5 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Tue Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Wed...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning.|
|Wed Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N After Midnight. Seas Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening.|
|Thu...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Thu Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Fri...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Fri Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Gray ME
905am EDT Monday May 21 2018
Synopsis: High pressure will slide offshore to the south of New England late today. A moisture starved cold front will drop south from Quebec later today. The front will return north as a warm front on Tuesday, spreading showers into the area. Another cold front drops south through the region Wednesday. Weak low pressure tracks along the international border late Thursday into Friday. A frontal system tracks into the area for the holiday weekend bringing widespread showers.
Near Term - Until 8pm This Evening
905 AM...At 12z a 1026 millibar high was draped across the lower Great Lakes. A weak cold front extended from the Gaspe Peninsula through the Saint Lawrence Valley. GOES visible imagery showed clear skies across the forecast area with lingering stratus and fog along the Connecticut Valley quickly burning off in the strong late May sunshine. For today...westerly flow will back to the southwest and strengthen a bit in advance of the weak frontal boundary. Winds along the coastal waters vicinity of Penobscot Bay may briefly approach small craft in gusts this afternoon ahead of this boundary. Otherwise...a quiet day with remaining issue being dry westerly flow and warm temperatures producing an elevated fire danger. I raised high temperatures a few degrees...mainly along the coast as the strengthening pre- frontal westerly flow keeps the seabreeze at bay.
Prev disc... 640am Update... Minor changes to the going forecast for observational temperatures and dew points overnight. Have interpolated this to the recent updates to the near term forecast.
Previous discussion... Warming and drying downsloping winds are expected to develop today behind a departing cold front with high pressure building in from the west. Today will be sunny with high temperatures in the 70s most locations, with mid to upper 70s likely for interior spots. It will be warmest over southern NH where Manchester and Nashua will approach 80 degrees.
Winds will be WNW and around 10 MPH with higher gusts, especially over the mountains. RH values drop into the 20-30% range, with higher RH values across the north. This is due to fast moving flow aloft, which will keep moisture along the Canadian border from around 850-700mb in particular. Thus, the lower RH values and borderline higher wind gusts are not juxtaposed, so a Red Flag Warning can be avoided at this time. Will be issuing a statement to impress the still dangerous fire weather conditions
.SHORT TERM /8pm THIS EVENING THROUGH 6pm TUESDAY/... Tonight expect weak SW flow along with increasing cloud cover from the SW as the next system approaches. This will yield temperatures in the 40s north with lower 50s along the coast and over southern NH. On Tuesday temperatures will warm into the upper 60s and lower 70s, with readings capped there by clouds and rainfall. In particular a warm front will spread showers across northern New England mainly in the afternoon and evening. Higher Quantitative Precipitation Forecast will be wrung out along the Whites and the western Maine mountains, but expect less than a quarter inch there with basin average less than a tenth in many places. Farther east and south will see less rain through Tuesday evening
Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Sunday
As we continue into the middle of the week split flow continues over the western CONUS with an upper level trough centered over Quebec. That split flow will begin to break down towards the end of the week with the cut off low reforming eastwards allowing for a tropical moisture source into the eastern CONUS by the end of the weekend.
For Wednesday we'll see showers across the area as a short wave dives through the low over Quebec. A rumble of thunder is possible in the afternoon as K index climbs to near 30 as the upper level vort max moves through.
Thursday and Friday will see high pressure over the region as the upper levels ridge begins to progress eastwards. A sea breeze will impact the coast throughout the end of the week keeping high temperatures lower along the water. Inland temperatures will climb into the upper 70s on Thursday and into the 80s on Friday under mostly sunny skies.
Saturday starts a pattern shift as a cut off low begins to form over the southeast US. This will allow for a flow of tropical moisture northwards bringing rain for the end of the weekend. The formation of the cut off low will be key in the timing and strength of the precipitation and that will be the feature to watch through this week as we look ahead to the holiday weekend.
Sunny skies are expected today with temperatures warming into the 70s along the coast. At the same time, water temperatures remain only in the lower 50s. The combination of pleasant weather conditions for paddlecraft and very cold Atlantic waters will combine for an increased risk of hypothermia and death for anyone who accidentally falls into the water. A Beach Hazards statement has been issued through this evening for the seacoast of NH and the western Maine coast. Westerly flow will strengthen today ahead of a weak cold front with a few gusts approaching small craft possible across the waters vicinity of Penobscot Bay.
Minimum RH values will fall to between 20 and 30 percent this afternoon, and westerly winds will be around 10 MPH gusting to near 20 mph at times. However, these two conditions do not occur in the same place, and red flag criteria is not expected to be met. Still, a statement will be issued addressing the potential for hazardous fire weather conditions
NOAA Gray/Portland ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8pm EDT this evening for MEZ023>028. NH...Beach Hazards Statement until 8pm EDT this evening for NHZ014. MARINE...None