Marine Weather Net

Port Clyde ME to Cape Elizabeth ME Marine Forecast


OVERNIGHT

NW
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

FRI

NW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

FRI NIGHT

S
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

SAT

S
WINDS
25 - 30
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ152 Forecast Issued: 708 PM EST Thu Dec 01 2022

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY
Overnight...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 7 Ft, Subsiding To 3 To 5 Ft.
Fri...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Fri Night...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.
Sat...S Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft, Building To 7 To 9 Ft In The Afternoon. Rain. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm In The Afternoon.
Sat Night...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt, Becoming Nw With Gusts Up To 30 Kt After Midnight. Seas 6 To 9 Ft. Rain In The Evening With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.
Sun...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Subsiding To 3 To 4 Ft In The Afternoon.
Sun Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft.
Mon...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Mon Night...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Tue...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely In The Afternoon.
Tue Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Showers Likely.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
715pm EST Thu Dec 1 2022

Synopsis
Scattered snow showers will diminish through this evening as well as the gusty NW winds. High pressure will bring fair weather for Friday followed by another frontal system crossing Saturday bringing mainly rain and a period of strong southerly winds. High pressure returns Sunday bringing fair weather into at least Monday with the next frontal system crossing the area towards the middle of next week.

Near Term - Tonight
715 PM Have expired portions of the Wind Advisory on time this evening as mixing is gradually lost and gusts decrease in intensity of coverage. Did however extend the advisory through a few select zones as a mid- level inversion lowers, squeezing out another couple hours of strong wind gust potential through the notches and in the immediate downslopes. Otherwise, only minor tweaks to the overnight T and sky forecast were made to align with observations and latest hires guidance.

Previously... Snow showers continue across the region this afternoon. So far they have been mainly clusters of convective showers rather than strongly forced lines. So while some of the snow showers have been on the heavier side with visibility dropping to around 1/2 mile...most have been brief and light. This also means coverage should dramatically drop as the sun sets and low level instability wanes. As the low levels stabilize the wind gusts will also diminish...so I have trimmed parts of the wind advisory. The area where they remain in effect is for lowering of the inversion this evening. As the subsidence inversion develop and strengthens...the forecast Froude number will approach 1 and so the threat of downsloping winds becomes higher. I have left up the wind advisory for the zones that are most favorable...but an extension in time may be necessary if winds continue to gust.

Short Term - Friday Through Friday Night
High pressure in control Fri. As a result mixing will be on the shallow side...with temps staying near normal for this time of year.

Much like the last frontal passage...initially in the evening temps should be able to fall quickly below freezing. However as southwest flow increases overnight those readings will eventually start to steady and creep up thru morning. At this time it appears precipitation should mainly hold off until after 7 am. If precipitation moves in faster there is some potential for pockets of freezing rain before temps warm up.

Long Term - Saturday Through Thursday
The long term period starts off with a rex block in the northeast Pacific with a ridge into Alaska and an upper low offshore of Pacific Northwest. Further east a downstream long wave trough will be positioned over central Canada and this trough will not move much through the middle of next week as high latitude blocking intensifies with the NAO takes a pronounced dive into negative territory. Northern New England will be on the southeast periphery of this long wave trough with embedded shortwaves bringing a period of active weather Saturday and again towards the middle of next week. These periods of active weather will consist of frontal systems tracking northwest of the area resulting in mainly rain events south of the mountains and wintry precipitation transitioning to rain across northern zones. As upper level flow will generally zonal or out of the southwest through the long term, temperatures will generally run above normal for this time of year.

On Saturday an embedded short wave rotating through the northern Great Lakes region will send an area of low pressure across Quebec and its attendant cold front will cross the forecast area Saturday evening. This system looks fairly similar to the system that moved through last night with ensemble means showing a LLJ on the order of 60 kts in the 850 mb to 925 mb layer. Southerly winds will ramp up Saturday morning ahead of the cold front and look to peak late morning into the afternoon as the LLJ slides east across the area. Current forecast guidance suggests that Wind Advisory criteria will likely be reached along portions of the Mid Coast, although as this is still 3 days out and the inherent uncertainty in mixing down the LLJ will continue to utilize the HWO to mention the wind potential Saturday. In addition to winds, warm air advection will lead to precipitation breaking out Saturday morning with portions of the interior and mountains likely being cold enough to see a period of wintry precipitation. Not expecting much in the way of accumulating wintry precipitation, but could be enough to bring slick travel across the interior Saturday morning. Temperatures will continue to rise through Saturday morning with precipitation changing over to rain everywhere by mid day, including the highest peaks in the White Mountains. The system will be relatively fast moving so not expecting much in the way of hydro concerns with storm total Quantitative Precipitation Forecast in the 0.25 to 0.5 inch range.

The cold front will clear the area Saturday night bringing an end to the rain and gusty southerly winds, while the mountains see a transition to upslope snow showers. High pressure will build in Sunday providing dry weather into Monday. Highs on Sunday will range from the upper 20s across the north to the low 40s across the south with temperatures trending upward into the upcoming work week. The next frontal system approaches from the west Tuesday with models in general agreement that the center of the low pressure system will track to the NW of the area limiting the chances for this system to bring much in the way of accumulating snow and rain likely being the dominant p-type. There are some timing differences amongst the 12Z global models and their ensembles so have tweaked NBM Probability of Precipitation down Tuesday and slightly increased NBM Probability of Precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday to account for some of these timing differences.

Marine
Short Term
Winds and seas will gradually diminish overnight. Gale warnings remain in effect mainly for any snow showers that may bring squally conditions to the waters into the evening. SCA will be needed thru Fri morning before high pressure allows winds and seas to drop below thresholds. Southwest flow increases Fri night and will likely reach SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds once again...so any break from headlines will be brief.

Long Term
Southerly flow will ramp up Saturday morning ahead of an approaching cold front with Gales likely needed by late Saturday morning through the afternoon. Winds shift out of the WNW Saturday night and will be strong enough to bring SCA conditions into Sunday morning. Winds and seas look to remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds late Sunday into Monday before a resurgence of southerly flow takes place Tuesday ahead of the next frontal system.

NOAA Gray/Portland ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
ME...Wind Advisory until 11pm EST this evening for MEZ007>009-012. NH...Wind Advisory until 11pm EST this evening for NHZ002>004.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until 4am EST Friday for ANZ150-152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 1am EST Friday for ANZ151-153.