Port Clyde ME to Cape Elizabeth ME Marine Forecast
|Today...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Tonight...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N 5 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Mon...Ne Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Patchy Drizzle In The Morning. Vsby Variable To Less Than One Quarter Nm In The Morning.|
|Mon Night...Ne Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Tue...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Tue Night...E Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming Ne 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Wed...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming E 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Wed Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Thu...Ne Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Thu Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Gray ME
1040am EDT Sunday April 11 2021
Much cooler under more cloud cover today as a back door cold front undercuts warmer air aloft. Rain showers are possible in southern NH tonight and Monday as that front stalls there, but gets a final push out of the area Monday night. Tuesday looks cool, but with a fair amount of sunshine. There is considerable uncertainty in our chances for measurable rainfall as very slow low pressure systems remain mainly west and south of our region through the end of the week.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
1040 AMThe main focus on this update was to tweak near term temperature and sky forecasts based on latest observed trends. Mostly clear skies across central and northern New hampshire have allowed temperatures to increase several degrees over the past hours or so while low stratus and onshore flow are keeping areas in Maine and coastal New hampshire quite cool. The rest of the forecast remains on track with cool and cloudy conditions in Maine and coastal New Hampshire while northern and western New Hampshire will be the warm spots today with more sun.
645 AMUpdates so far are mainly to chase stratus trends according to satellite. At this hour, two areas of stratus impact the region... one in southern New Hampshire that should lift through the morning and another over Maine that will tend to fill in. These will have large bearing on temperature trends today and will need to be followed.
Previously... Ridging aloft and at the surface relents to twin upper level lows on both our eastern and western flanks by tonight, although overall the weather remains fairly unremarkable. This morning, weak onshore flow is producing a layer of stratus south of Portland with some patchy fog over interior valleys. Stratus will continue to fill in this morning mainly south and east of the mountains as a slow- moving back door cold front tracks southeastward through the region... but then lift and scatter as dry air filters in aloft later this afternoon.
The exception is across southern and southwest New Hampshire where the cold front meets a band of warm frontal forcing aloft, associated with low pressure upstream over the Great Lakes extending toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. Although forcing is overall quite weak, light rain showers along the broken band will enter southwest New Hampshire by the evening.
With these airmasses and clouds in mind, temperatures are a bit tricky for today. The warmest conditions will be in the upper Connecticut Valley, sheltered from the back door cold front and warming into the low-60s. Elsewhere, southern areas will struggle to the 50 degree mark depending on how quickly clouds can lift while further north and east, breaks of sunshine during the afternoon allow for temps to reach into the upper-50s.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6pm Monday
The band of light rain shower activity stalls over southern New Hampshire tonight and eventually loses forcing from its parent upper level as it fills and shifts toward Pennsylvania. Meanwhile the upper low positioned over the maritimes will send another backdoor cold front over Maine and southwest through New Hampshire tonight. Like tonight, the initial undercutting of the relatively warm and humid mid-levels by the surface cold front leads to another period of stratus development with some drizzle and fog possible tonight, mostly over Maine. Temperatures will drop to around 40 for most, into the 30s across the north.
The main question for tomorrow will be how quickly drier air arrives aloft to lift and scatter out low clouds. Generally speaking clouds will scatter over Maine first and allow temperatures to warm into the mid-50s, but further south temperatures will hang closer to 50 with isolated rain showers.
Long Term - Monday Night Through Saturday
500 MB pattern across the N hemisphere continues to show lots of mid- latitude blocking this week into next weekend. The problem is that the details change, sometimes significantly, with every model run. Rather than flip-flop with the models it seems prudent to follow the ensembles in the long range, which dampen the sudden model changes, and wait for the details to emerge in time. So, while it looks like we will see a series of 500 MB closed lows, and their associated surface features move through, with a trend toward NE and onshore flow, which would mean cooler and cloudier conds thru the period, with the potential for showers. Again it probably won;t rain everyday, and there will likely be some days where we will see more sun, but timing these during mid-late week seems more like guesswork at this point.
Monday night and Tuesday look mainly dry, and Tuesday may turn into a decent if back door cold front moves through quickly and allows some clearing behind. It won't be warm with highs generally in the low to mid 50s and lows in the mid to upper 30s.
00Z models say maybe We eek out a decent on Wednesday before a large closed low moves to our west Thu-Fri, with secondary low developing near the New England coast. Wouldn;t put too much faith in this right now, because it could easily change in 24 hours. Need to see some run to run consistency before biting on any solutions.
High pressure builds to the north over eastern Canada while low pressure passes through and to the south of the Gulf of Maine today. These two systems pivot while the PGF separating the two strengthens some by Monday, which will lead to an increasing northeast wind. Wind gusts of 25-30 kts are expected during the late morning and afternoon over the outermost waters with corresponding wave heigheights topping out around 5 feet. Seas and winds diminish to below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds later in the evening.
Long Term...Winds/seas stay below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels Tue-Thu, but confidence is low on positioning of lows through the period.
NOAA Gray/Portland ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None.