Port Clyde ME to Cape Elizabeth ME Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Se Winds Up To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming E 10 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt After Midnight. Seas Around 2 Ft, Building To 5 To 8 Ft After Midnight. A Chance Of Snow Or A Slight Chance Of Rain This Evening, Then Rain Or Snow After Midnight.|
|Fri...Ne Winds 20 To 30 Kt, Becoming N 30 To 40 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 12 To 17 Ft. Rain.|
|Fri Night...W Winds 15 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 8 To 11 Ft, Subsiding To 6 To 9 Ft After Midnight.|
|Sat...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft, Subsiding To 3 To 5 Ft In The Afternoon.|
|Sat Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Sun Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Snow And Rain Likely. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Mon...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Rain And Snow Showers. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Mon Night...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Tue...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Tue Night...N Winds 10 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Snow Showers. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Gray ME
317pm EST Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis: A coastal storm will arrive tonight into Friday bringing mainly snowfall to Maine and New Hampshire. An upper level disturbance will cross the region Saturday. Canadian high pressure builds into the region Sunday before a fast moving area of low pressure develops over the region Sunday night. An Arctic front will cross the region late Monday, followed by high pressure building into the region through midweek.
Near Term - Through Tonight
A very deep arctic air mass in place with a very dry column of air in place, this will play an important role in the upcoming forecast. Initial shot of stg waa overunning aloft tonight will bring with it over a half inch to .75 inches of qpf in the form of snow due to the stg baroclinic zone in place and strong evaporational cooling of the columns with also a deep arctic air mass in place. Expecting a large swath of 5-8 inches over most areas so winter storm warnings will continue. A break in the action occurs late tonight and toward morning once the initial shot of waa ends with a brief dry slot.
Lowered overnight temps due to the strong cold air damming overnight. Late tonight some warm air aloft and at the surface may make it into extreme southeast NH lowering amounts over the seacoast area thus only winter weather advisories for that area.
EURO still the preferred model of choice with higher Quantitative Precipitation Forecast and colder. GFS has considerably lower Quantitative Precipitation Forecast, meanwhile NAM the warmer model trying to simply bring warm air inland through the arctic dome which is very unlikely.
Of interest will be where some heavier bands of snowfall occur that may exceed the snowfall forecast amounts with initial shot of the waa pattern over southern and coastal which should last 4-6 hours tonight before becoming light late. Coastal front will come into play after midnight aiding in additional lift in a 20-30 mile area west of its location.
Northern areas will be on northern fringe of system and may have a tough time reaching warning criteria but higher ratios (fluff factor) may play a role.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Will be using the EURO track of the low and mid level low for Fri. This will bring another shot of wraparound snow in the morning of maybe a few additional inches. The system races northeast and by afternoon the pcpn should come to an end with clearing in the mid afternoon. Northwest downsloping winds will increase and become gusty in the wake of the departing storm in the afternoon.
Heavily weighted temps off the EURO model but with some assist from the other blended models
Fri night another shot of cold air on a westerly flow. Some minor s/wves may trickle through the west flow aloft causing some scattered snow showers.
Long Term - Saturday Through Thursday
A gradual warming trend is expected for the start of the upcoming weekend, however temperatures will still average near or below normal. A break between weather systems will occur for much of the day Saturday prior to the passage of yet another Arctic frontal approach late in the day. This renewed shot of cold air will trigger scattered snow showers. H8 temperatures between -10C and -14C will allow for temperatures to drop into the teens to 20s by Sunday morning.
High pressure will enter the region within a very fast flow as a broad scale upper level low approaches from the west. This upper level feature will trigger the development of a wave of low pressure Sunday night into early Monday morning. Models have been trending towards higher Pops and the potential for light accumulations of snowfall before it the system exits to our east Monday afternoon. In its wake, all models drive a strong Arctic front through the region Monday evening. Strong cold air advection in the fast moving cyclonic flow aloft will allow for snow showers to break out across the high terrain. Expect scattered snow showers as well, which may reach all the way to the coastline. Very cold conditions will follow for Tuesday and Tuesday night with overnight lows once again near zero over northern areas.
More quiet conditions expected for the rest of the midweek period. A large ridge of high pressure will move off the coast late in the week. This will set up the potential for very light overunning precipitation.
Short Term: Gale warning begin late tonight and continue through Friday.
Long Term: Westerly winds may reach Small Craft Advisories on Saturday. A brief period of strong winds, possibly briefly meeting gale force over the outer water may occur with the passage of scattered snow squalls late Monday and Monday evening.
NOAA Gray/Portland ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
ME...Winter Storm Warning from 7pm this evening to 1pm EST Friday for MEZ018-023. Winter Storm Warning from 1am to 4pm EST Friday for MEZ007>009-012>014-019>022-024>028. NH...Winter Storm Warning from 7pm this evening to 1pm EST Friday for NHZ005>013-015. Winter Storm Warning from 1am to 4pm EST Friday for NHZ001>004. Winter Weather Advisory from 7pm this evening to 7am EST Friday for NHZ014.
Gale Warning from 1am to 4pm EST Friday for ANZ150>154