Port Clyde ME to Cape Elizabeth ME Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Nw Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. Isolated Flurries Early This Evening. |
| Wed...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 2 Ft At 3 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Wed Night...S Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Building To 5 To 7 Ft After Midnight. Wave Detail: Sw 5 Ft At 5 Seconds, Becoming S 6 Ft At 6 Seconds. Rain. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm In The Evening. |
| Thu...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming W 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Wave Detail: S 6 Ft At 7 Seconds. Rain, Mainly In The Morning. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm In The Afternoon. |
| Thu Night...W Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Seas 7 To 10 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 8 Ft At 7 Seconds And S 3 Ft At 12 Seconds. |
| Fri...W Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 8 Ft At 7 Seconds And S 3 Ft At 12 Seconds. |
| Fri Night...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming W 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. |
| Sat...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Snow Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Sat Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Snow. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Sun...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Rain And Snow In The Morning With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Sun Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 510pm EST Tuesday Dec 3 2024 Synopsis A broad and chilly cyclonic flow will remain over the region today, bringing snow showers to the mountains and flurries or light snow showers to areas downwind of the mountains. A complex series of upper level troughs will once again cross the forecast area Wednesday night and Thu with snowfall across the interior and a mix of rain and snow closer to the coast. This system will be a followed by a very cold airmass and gusty winds to finish up the workweek and to start the weekend. Near Term - Through Wednesday Update...Minor changes to wind down snow showers/flurries a little faster this evening. Otherwise no significant changes. Previous discussion...S/WV trough dropping thru the area is allowing for higher coverage of snow showers again this afternoon. The main thrust of the of the S/WV will be down thru southern New England...but I anticipate some filling in of coverage over southern NH on the northern fringes of this forcing. The loss of diurnal heating will see these snow showers slowly becoming more scattered overnight. Eventually we lose both our forcing and our low level moisture and upslope snow showers finally come to an end for most of the day Wed. Temps remain cool...with teens overnight tonight and 30s Wed. .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... All eyes turn to the approaching clipper Wednesday evening. Precip quickly overspreads the forecast area from west to east. At least initially temps will be cold enough and dewpoints dry enough that wet bulb temps will support snow just about everywhere. Very near the coast this will quickly flip to rain as southerly winds advect much warmer air inland thanks to SSTs in the upper 40s. The question is how far inland does this warm air push. There is at least some indication that it will try and surge inland to the I-95 area before lift...snowfall rates...and Cold Air Advection push it back towards the coast. Right on the nose of this LLJ theta-e lapse rates will be neutral to negative hinting at some instability...along with snow growth zone depth at or above 200 mb. This could lead to some high snowfall rates in the late evening thru early morning of 1 inch or more per hour...before any changeover to rain. Just north of the changeover is the best chance for a stripe of 4 to 7 inches of snow...especially as you head into the middle Kennebec River Valley. Across the interior there is fairly high confidence in a widespread 2 to 5 inches of snow...for some areas the first accumulation of the season...and occurring maybe thru the Thu morning commute. With that in mind I have issued a winter weather advisory thru midday Thu. Some expansion south is possible if model guidance trends colder...whether due to storm track or storm strength. Steady precipitation will taper by midday...and eventually transition to upslope snow showers as winds become west then northwest. Long Term - Thursday Night Through Tuesday Low pressure responsible for the snow Wednesday night and Thursday is forecast to be centered over or just east of far northern Maine Thursday evening. It will continue to lift northward into the Canadian Maritimes through the course of Thursday night and Friday, further tightening the pressure gradient across the region. Breezy conditions will develop overnight Thursday and continue during the day on Friday with forecast soundings supporting gusts of 30-35 mph out of the W-WNW with a few possibly hitting the 40-45 mph range. These gusty winds will make for a raw, blustery day with wind chills in the teens, possibly even single digits in the morning hours south of the mountains. In the mountains, wind chills will likely be in the single digits either side of zero in the lower elevations and well below zero in the higher terrain. The mountains will also see upslope snow showers, and Froude numbers from both the NAM/GFS (Global Forecast System) suggest unblocked flow Thursday night and Friday, so I do have some Probability of Precipitation for snow showers south of the mountains along with going above guidance on cloud cover. However, by Friday afternoon, the low levels may dry out enough to where it's only flurries downwind of the mountains. Even though winds will be diminishing Friday night, there may be a period of subzero wind chills south of the mountains as temperatures are forecast to become quite cold with single digits to teens for lows. It will be partly sunny and not as breezy Saturday with temperatures in the mid 20s to lower 30s for highs. A chance of snow showers will continue in the mountains with a couple possibly extending downwind into the foothills. From Sunday into Early Next Week models are in pretty good agreement showing low pressure moving across Quebec with some light wintry precipitation possible along a warm front over portions of the area on Sunday. For right now, the better chance will be across northern areas. The 12Z operational GFS and ECWMF hint at a better potential for precipitation early next week with low pressure across the Great Lakes and potentially a stalled frontal boundary somewhere across the area. There are mixed signals within the ensembles so I have gone a touch lower than the NBM PoPs. Marine Short Term Light winds continue for much of the day Wed. As the clipper approaches a southerly LLJ will develop overnight. A few gale force gusts are possible...especially north of Cape Elizabeth. A gale watch has been issued starting Wednesday evening to cover this threat. There will likely be a pause in gale force wind gusts as LLJ lifts northeast and westerly flow has not quite kicked in yet Thu. Long Term Westerly gales are likely Thursday night and Friday as the deepening surface low lifts into the Canadian Maritimes, further tightening the pressure gradient across the region. Conditions improve Friday night but will probably remain above SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels over the outer waters for most of the upcoming weekend. Another low pressure may then cross the waters sometime early next week. NOAA Gray/Portland ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 7pm Wednesday to noon EST Thursday for MEZ007>009-012>014-033. NH...Winter Weather Advisory from 7pm Wednesday to noon EST Thursday for NHZ001>009-011-015. Marine Gale Watch from Wednesday evening through Friday evening for ANZ150-152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 7pm Wednesday to 7pm EST Thursday for ANZ151-153. Gale Watch from Thursday evening through Friday evening for ANZ151-153. |
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