Marine Weather Net

Destin to Pensacola FL out 20 NM Marine Forecast


REST OF TODAY

S
WINDS
15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

S
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

SATURDAY

S
WINDS
15
KNOTS

SATURDAY NIGHT

SE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ655 Forecast Issued: 947 AM CDT Fri May 20 2022

Rest Of Today...South Winds Around 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Tonight...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Saturday...South Winds Around 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Seas Around 4 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Showers And Thunderstorms Likely In The Afternoon.
Saturday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 7 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Sunday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 7 Seconds. Showers And Thunderstorms.
Sunday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 4 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 7 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Showers And Thunderstorms Likely After Midnight.
Monday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 7 Seconds. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely.
Monday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 3 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 7 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Tuesday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 3 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 3 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1245pm CDT Fri May 20 2022

Near Term - Now Through Saturday
Weak south to southwesterly flow aloft will continue through the near term period as our region remains located between a building upper- level ridge over the Western Atlantic and troughing over the northern Great Plains. A lead shortwave trough, currently located over the Western Gulf, will approach the region on Friday, passing overhead by early Saturday morning. After its passage, several shortwave impulses, embedded within the flow aloft, will start pushing over the region on Saturday. At the surface, high pressure over the Western Atlantic remains in control, allowing for southerly winds to be maintained throughout the period.

With deep-layer southerly flow in place, moisture will continue to advect in from the Gulf of Mexico, allowing for PWATs (Precipitable Waters) to rise into the 1.2 to 1.6 inch range for Friday. With ample instability in place (MLCAPEs around 2000 J/kg) and the lead shortwave approaching, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop Friday afternoon, with the best chances across along the coast and east of the Alabama River, where the higher moisture values are located. Not expecting much in the way of strong/severe storms, however, cannot rule out one or two storms producing gusty winds and small hail as DCAPEs will be around 800 to 1000 J/kg due to a dry layer above 850mb. Coverage will decrease by the evening hours as some drier air briefly pushes in.

By Saturday, moisture quickly rebounds as PWATs (Precipitable Waters) across the entire area increase to 1.5 to 1.7 inches. Very steep low level lapse rates (around 9 C/km), brought on by strong daytime heating, will give way to much higher instability values, with MLCAPE values reaching 2500 to 3500 J/kg (with locally higher values) by the afternoon. With the series of shortwaves passing overhead, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to start developing across the region during the late morning hours, becoming more numerous by the afternoon. With steeper low level lapse rates and a dry layer still in place above 700mb, higher DCAPEs of around 1100 to 1400 J/kg will be seen across the area. Therefore, would not be surprised to see some storms become strong, to possibly even severe. With limited shear/helicity, the primary concern on Saturday will be quick, pop- up storms, capable of producing damaging downdraft winds and up to quarter-sized hail.

Temperatures will remain quite warm with highs on Friday and Saturday in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Lows Friday night will be in the upper 60s to low 70s inland and mid 70s closer to the coast. Lastly, with continued/increasing southerly winds, a HIGH risk of rip currents goes into effect this morning and persisting through the weekend. /96

NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None. GM...None.