Destin to Pensacola FL out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...South Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 4 Seconds.|
|Tonight...South Winds 8 To 13 Knots Becoming Southwest 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 20 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 4 Seconds. Patchy Fog After Midnight.|
|Saturday...Southwest Winds 13 To 18 Knots Becoming West 15 To 20 Knots. Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds. Showers Likely In The Morning, Then Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Saturday Night...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming North 13 To 18 Knots. Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening.|
|Sunday...Northwest Winds 13 To 18 Knots Diminishing To 8 To 13 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds.|
|Sunday Night...Northwest Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds.|
|Monday...South Winds 3 To 8 Knots. Seas Around 1 Foot. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds.|
|Monday Night...South Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Seas Around 1 Foot. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds.|
|Tuesday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet. Chance Of Showers.|
|Tuesday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Chance Of Showers.|
Synopsis For Pascagoula MS To Okaloosa Walton County Line FL Out 60 NM Including Major Area Bays And Sounds - GMZ600|
334 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2019
Light onshore flow persists through Friday. Sea fog may develop Friday night into early Saturday. Onshore flow will increase to a moderate southwesterly flow Saturday with a few storms possible ahead of the front. In the wake of the front, offshore winds develop overnight Saturday into Sunday. Winds and seas briefly relax and turn onshore again on Monday.
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mobile AL
533am CST Fri Nov 22 2019
Near Term - Now Through Friday night
The mid-level ridge axis will continue to flatten out as an upper trough pushes east over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, high pressure will remain parked off the east coast of Florida as a surface trough associated with the shortwave will dive southeast into the Mid- Mississippi valley. Southerly winds will continue throughout the day leading to increasing moisture. Mid- level Clouds will continue to in from the northwest during the afternoon as an upper level low ejects over the Central Great Plains. By tomorrow night, the upper low and adjacent jet streak will begin to spread over the surface trough leading to a surface low to develop along the trough over southern Louisiana. Precipitation will slowly begin to spread east and likely entering our northwestern areas by early evening before slowly drifting southeast throughout the night. There are some timing discrepancies especially between the high-res guidance and the spectral models. I leaned a little towards the slower solution given the slowing trend.
For temperatures today, increasing clouds will likely keep temperatures from getting too warm; however, increasing warm air advection throughout the day should lead to highs in the mid 70s across the area. Lows tomorrow night will be on the warmer side as dewpoints continue to rise. Lows will likely range from the upper 60s at the coast to low 60s inland. Some areas of sea fog could develop along the coastal areas tonight into early Saturday morning as warm moist air flows over the cooler shelf waters near the coast. BB/03
Short Term - Saturday Through Sunday Night
A cold front will move west to east across the area Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon with a line of showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of the front. Strong to severe storms are not expected as instability levels will be limited by widespread clouds and weak mid-level lapse rates. Heavy rainfall will not be an issue as the line is expected to remain progressive. A cooler and drier airmass follows in the wake of the front on Sunday as high pressure builds over the area. Highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s on Saturday and low 60s on Sunday. /13
Long Term - Monday Through Thursday
Temps begin moderating on Monday as high pressure moves east of the of the area as a trough digs across the western states. This trough advances east and causes low pressure to develop across the plains which tracks rapidly northeast into the Great Lakes by Tuesday night. The global models have trended farther to the north with the main dynamics of this system which results in the trailing front stalling somewhere over or close to the Gulf Coast. The stalling scenario makes sense due to the strong ridging forecast to develop across the Gulf of Mexico. Without a strong frontal passage, temps remain above normal through Thanksgiving day and rain chances will be dependent on just how far south the boundary makes it. /13
MARINE...Light onshore flow will continue today as the surface high remains over the western Atlantic. Some sea fog could be possible late tonight into early saturday morning as better moisture and warmer temperatures surge north ahead of an approaching cold front. Seas and winds will increase Saturday as the pressure gradient strengthens ahead of the front. The strongest winds will likely occur just ahead of the front during the afternoon. There are some discrepancies in the timing of the front which would lead to potential sifts in where the strongest winds will occur. Thus, have went ahead and issued a small craft advisory for the whole offshore waters beginning Saturday morning. A few thunderstorms could be possible ahead and along the front Saturday. Behind the boundary, moderate northwesterly flow will develop Saturday night into Sunday before relaxing Sunday night into Monday. The small craft advisory also includes the winds on the backside of the front. BB/03
NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday morning through late Saturday night for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday morning through late Saturday night for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9am Saturday to 6am CST Sunday for GMZ650-655-670-675.