Destin to Pensacola FL out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming South 5 To 10 Knots Late This Evening And Overnight. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms This Evening, Then A Chance Of Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Saturday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds. Showers Likely. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Saturday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 3 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds. A Chance Of Thunderstorms. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then Showers After Midnight.|
|Sunday...West Winds 20 To 25 Knots, Becoming Northwest 25 To 30 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Feet, Building To 4 To 6 Feet In The Afternoon. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Sunday Night...North Winds 20 To 25 Knots, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Subsiding To 3 To 5 Feet After Midnight. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds.|
|Monday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots, Diminishing To Around 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Feet, Subsiding To 2 To 3 Feet In The Afternoon. Dominant Wave Period 4 Seconds.|
|Monday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 3 Seconds.|
|Tuesday...Northeast Winds Around 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 4 Seconds.|
|Tuesday Night...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet, Building To 2 To 4 Feet After Midnight. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds.|
|Wednesday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds.|
|Wednesday Night...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet, Building To 3 To 5 Feet After Midnight. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mobile AL
343pm CST Fri Dec 8 2023
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TER
.NEAR and SHORT TERM... (Now through Sunday night) Issued at 343pm CST Fri Dec 8 2023
An upper level trough will continue to amplify as it moves into the Plains today, with weak southwest flow over the much of the southeastern CONUS. Area radars show some light reflectivity over portions of the Gulf Coast States, though much of this is not reaching the ground at this point. As southerly flow increases, profiles will become saturated with PW values (Precipitable Water values) climbing above 1.2 inch this afternoon. Light showers will increase in coverage tonight as isentropic ascent strengthens in response the WAA. The better coverage will remain offshore where the better lift and moisture overlap. Temperatures today will climb into the upper 60s to lower 70s, with overnight lows only falling into the mid 50s to lower 60s.
The aforementioned trough over the Plains will continue its eastward progression tonight and Saturday. A cold front will trail from its parent low over the Great Lakes region, south-southwestward through the Mississippi Valley. Ahead of this system, strong southerly flow will continue to advect an abundance of moisture, allowing cloud cover to persist through the day on Saturday. As weak shortwaves round the eastern periphery of the trough, scattered showers will continue off and on, with greater coverage continuing off the coast. There will be enough WAA (Warm Air Advection - the movement of warm air) to allow temps to climb into the mid to upper 70s across the area, with dewpoints rising into the mid to upper 60s by the afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage late Saturday night as the cold front approaches the area. This activity will move into the area before midnight and then quickly move eastward during the remainder of the predawn hours, before exiting around sunrise as the front passes through the area. The upper trough will maintain a positive tilt during this period and move through well behind the front, so post-frontal rain is possible through Sunday morning. Temperatures will be highly dependent on how quickly the front moves through and how strong the Cold Air Advection is behind the front. Given some uncertainty, went a degree or two higher than blended guidance, with temps falling into the upper 40s west of I-65 to the upper 50s east of I-65.
In terms of the severe threat, this is going to be one of those scenarios that come down to the mesoscale details that can't be fully resolved this far out. Given how far west the trough remains as the front moves through, we will likely maintain some capping aloft with poor lapse rates, cloud cover, and the fact that the line will be coming through overnight limiting our instability. Combined with the low level jet remaining north of the our area and only modest shear, the overall pattern suggests a broken line of showers with embedded weak thunderstorms this far south. Further north and west, where better jet dynamics and lapse rates overlap, there may be a more organized line, but all of the guidance continues to suggest that we will have a limited severe threat. One caveat is the 0-6 km shear may be enough to maintain isolated organized updrafts which may interact with mesoscale boundaries to lend a lower end threat for severe thunderstorms. But this is too uncertain and will not be resolved until the event begins to materialize.
As mentioned above, any lingering showers/stratiform rain will quickly come to an end by Sunday afternoon as the upper trough swings through the area. Strong Cold Air Advection will send much colder and drier air into the region. The pressure gradient will remain fairly tight, with breezy conditions through the day. Over our inland areas, we won't reach wind advisory criteria, but over water, we will have to monitor conditions for at least a Small Craft Advisory on Sunday, if not a Gale Watch/Warning. The latest forecast is borderline on Gale winds, but it's something we will monitor over the next day. In addition to the winds posing a hazard, a High Risk for Rip Currents will be in place from Saturday through Sunday. /73
(Monday through Friday) Issued at 343pm CST Fri Dec 8 2023
By Monday, surface high pressure will be building into the region from the west, and surface ridging will then continue across the area through the long term period, although the axis will be shifting slightly to the east of our area by Friday. This will bring a dry northeasterly flow and somewhat cool airmass to our area. Aloft, flow will initially be zonal, but a large upper trough will move out of the Rockies and into the Plains States by Friday, allowing upper flow to become more southeasterly across the area. Models also suggesting the possibility of a developing low pressure area over the eastern Gulf by late Friday as well, but there are still significant uncertainties with that. Regardless, by the end of the period, atmospheric moisture will be on the increase across our area as surface winds become more easterly, but for now it appears that any increasing rain chances look to hold off until just beyond the long term period.
With regard to temperatures, highs below normal Monday (mostly low to mid 50s) and warming slightly on Tuesday (mid to upper 50s). Slightly warmer, with near normal highs in primarily in the lower 60s Wednesday through Friday. Lows monday night will be the coldest of the period, with lows ranging from the upper 20s to mid 30s, which will generally be about 10 degrees below normal. Gradually moderating overnight temps through the remainder of the period, with lows generally in the 40s by Thursday night. /12
Issued at 343pm CST Fri Dec 8 2023
Light to moderate onshore flow continues into Saturday. The onshore flow strengthens Saturday night ahead of an approaching cold front. A strong northwesterly to northerly flow develops Sunday into Sunday night behind the front with gusts to gale force possible over the Gulf. Light to moderate offshore flow returns on Monday and persists into the middle of next week. /73
NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.