Destin to Pensacola FL out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...North Winds 20 To 25 Knots Diminishing To 15 To 20 Knots. Gusts Up To 30 Knots. Seas 2 To 5 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds.|
|Tonight...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Northeast 13 To 18 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds.|
|Friday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 20 Knots Becoming East 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds.|
|Friday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southeast 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds.|
|Saturday...Southeast Winds 13 To 18 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet Building To 3 To 4 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds.|
|Saturday Night...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Southwest. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds. Chance Of Showers.|
|Sunday...West Winds 18 To 23 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 7 Seconds. Chance Of Showers.|
|Sunday Night...Northwest Winds 18 To 23 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 7 Seconds.|
|Monday...Northwest Winds 18 To 23 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds.|
|Monday Night...North Winds 18 To 23 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 4 Seconds.|
| Synopsis For Pascagoula MS To Okaloosa Walton County Line FL Out 60 NM Including Major Area Bays And Sounds - GMZ600|
349 AM CST Thu Jan 28 2021
Moderate to strong offshore flow continues through today and tonight before subsiding Friday. Moderate onshore flow returns over the weekend as the next cold front approaches.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mobile AL
520am CST Thu Jan 28 2021
NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Friday/...Upper level flow becomes more northwesterly through Friday between a departing trough to our east and a building ridge to the west. At the surface, high pressure pushes east from the central CONUS into the eastern CONUS. Winds locally veer from northerly today to more easterly on Friday in response to this shift in high pressure, though that's the only notable change that will occur. Otherwise, increasing subsidence will clear out any lingering post-frontal clouds this morning and cool/dry weather prevails under mostly sunny skies throughout the near term. Despite the ample sunshine, cold air advection keeps highs today in the low to mid 50s, which will even feel a bit cooler than that if you consider the breezy winds. Lighter winds and clear skies tonight will allow temps to fall into the upper 20s and low 30s inland to mid 30s along the coast. Highs on Friday moderate slightly as the north winds (and cold air advection) subside, with temps reaching the upper 50s to near 60. /13/49
Short Term - Friday Night Through Saturday Night
Northwesterly flow aloft continues Friday night, but transitions to slight ridging aloft of Saturday in response to a fairly strong, negatively tilted upper trough moving across the plains states. On Saturday night, the upper trough weakens somewhat and lifts up to the southern Great Lakes region, with a nearly zonal flow developing along the Gulf coast area. At the surface, a high pressure ridge axis shifts east of our area, being oriented along the US east coast by late Friday night. This high pressure moves east out over the Atlantic Saturday and Saturday night as surface low pressure develops over the plains states Friday night and then lifts up to southern Indiana Saturday through Saturday night. A cold front associated with the surface low pressure will be approaching our area from the west Friday night and Saturday, and moving into western portions of our local forecast area by late Saturday night. This pattern will result in a developing onshore return flow off of the Gulf of Mexico, with increasing moisture expected. PWAT's (Precipitable Waters) drastically increase across the region, from well less than 0.50 inches Friday evening near 1.30 inches by Saturday night. With this increased moisture and low level forcing from the front, expect rain chances to increase from west to east across our area from very late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Precipitation will primarily be showers with no thunder expected at this time due to lack of mid/upper dynamics and poor mid level lapse rates. Temperatures will be moderating during the short term period. Lows Friday night are expected to range from the mid to upper 30s across interior counties to the low and mid 40s along the coast. Highs on Saturday should mainly be in the low to mid 60s and then Saturday night lows will be quite a bit warmer than the previous few nights, ranging from the low to mid 50s for all areas north of I-10 to the upper 50s south of I-10 with a few lower 60s along the immediate coast. /12
EXTENDED TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...The weekend ends on a rainy note, but we quickly dry out as we head into next week. A shortwave trough aloft slides into the eastern half of the CONUS on Sunday and Monday. As that feature dives further to the east, an expansive ridge builds into the central portion of the CONUS early next week. Zonal flow aloft quickly turns northwesterly on Monday as the shortwave digs across the region and ridging builds to our west. The flow aloft begins to dampen out again by mid-week as another shortwave enters the Plains.
Meanwhile, a surface low continues to lift northeast across the Midwest during the day on Sunday. A trailing cold front remains draped back to the southwest of the low, likely crossing the Mississippi River Valley early Sunday morning. Rain showers will persist ahead of the front during the day on Sunday. At this time, we do not anticipate any severe weather ahead of the cold front (and we may not even have any thunderstorms given the lack of instability). Rain will quickly come to an end from west to east on Sunday afternoon and evening as the front pushes east of the area. A surface high builds into the central portion of the CONUS in the wake of the surface low and eventually settles into the Southeast by mid-week. A dry, northerly flow sets up through Tuesday night, but surface winds eventually turn southerly again as the high slides east of the local area.
Temperatures will resemble a roller coaster ride throughout the extended. Temperatures on Sunday will be mild ahead of the frontal passage with temperatures topping out in the low 70s for most areas. Temperatures plunge into the upper 30s to low 40s area-wide by Monday morning in the wake of the cold front. Temperatures will struggle to get into the 50s on Monday afternoon and it will remain breezy throughout the day. The coldest temperatures in the extended forecast occur on Tuesday morning with lows bottoming out in the low 30s for locations north of I-10 and upper 30s along the beaches and shoreline. The winds will remain somewhat elevated during that timeframe, which will allow the wind chill to dip into the 20s for a little bit during the pre-dawn hours on Tuesday (mainly for locations north of I-10). Temperatures begin to rebound little by little each day with temperatures warming back into the 70s by Thursday. 07/mb
MARINE...Moderate to strong offshore flow prevails through tonight before gradually subsiding and shifting to more easterly on Friday. Onshore flow returns and strengthens Friday night through the weekend ahead of the next approaching cold front, which brings moderate to strong offshore flow and building seas Sunday into Monday. Another Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed for that period. Moderate offshore flow then prevails through Tuesday before subsiding and shifting to more easterly around midweek. /49
NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...High Rip Current Risk until 6am CST early this morning for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6am CST early this morning for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ630-633>636.
Small Craft Advisory until 6am CST Friday for GMZ631-632-650- 655-670-675.