Destin to Pensacola FL out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...Southwest Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning.|
|Tonight...South Winds 8 To 13 Knots Becoming Southwest. Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 6 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Friday...Southwest Winds 8 To 13 Knots Becoming South. Seas Around 2 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely In The Morning, Then Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Friday Night...South Winds 8 To 13 Knots Becoming West. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Saturday...Northeast Winds 13 To 18 Knots Becoming Southeast 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Saturday Night...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming North 13 To 18 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds.|
|Sunday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds.|
|Sunday Night...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 5 Seconds.|
|Monday...East Winds 13 To 18 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 3 Seconds.|
|Monday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Wave Period 3 Seconds.|
Synopsis For Pascagoula MS To Okaloosa Walton County Line FL Out 60 NM Including Major Area Bays And Sounds - GMZ600|
341 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020
A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow continues over the marine area through Friday evening. A weak cold front approaches from the north on Friday and moves through the marine area Friday night, with a light to occasionally moderate offshore flow developing in its wake late Friday night and continuing into the early part of next week. Little change in seas expected through the period, but winds and seas will however likely be locally higher near showers and thunderstorms through Friday.
Area Forecast Discussion|
...UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL
925am CDT Thu May 28 2020
Have updated to include at least slight chance probability of precipitation for the entire area this afternoon. Coverage of convection will be rather limited, but sufficient to mention at least slight chance pops. Made other minor adjustments. /29
AVIATION... 28/12Z issuance...VFR conditions will prevail this morning into the afternoon hours, but developing convection will result in some MVFR (Marginal Visual Flight Rules) and localized brief IFR conditions this afternoon and tonight. IFR conditions will become more widespread tonight as convection is expected to increase in coverage, especially over the southern half of the forecast area. Some patchy overnight light fog is also possible. Surface winds primarily light southwest through the period. /12
NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Friday/...The pesky upper low near the Oklahoma/Arkansas boarder will gradually weaken today as it moves east across Arkansas. Tonight it will open up into a sharp trough and begin to be absorbed into a northern stream trough over the Great Lakes. During the same time, a north-south oriented stationary front to the west of the forecast area this morning will migrate slowly east into the area through Friday. Models indicate some drier mid level air working into the area around the base of the upper low today, with PWAT (Precipitable Water) dropping to 1.3 to 1.6 inches across the region by the end of the day today, with the lowest values to the west and highest values to the east. This should cut down on the coverage of showers and storms today vs yesterday, however any storms that do develop could again produce gusty winds due to the dry mid level air. Look for a 20 to 30 percent chance for showers and storms, especially over northern and western half of the forecast area today. The overall threat of strong to severe storms today should be lower than yesterday due to weaker deep layer shear. Shear remains slightly higher just to the northwest of our forecast area today, and the potential for strong to severe storms is slightly greater there. Due to the dry air in the mid-levels and afternoon destabilization, there will again be a Marginal Risk of strong to severe storms over our area, again primarily for strong gusty wind potential. Some localized heavy rainfall will also again be possible today. Just up to the northwest of our forecast area, across central and northern portions of AL and MS there is a Slight Risk of severe storms where shear is a little more pronounced and lapse rates a little steeper. Temperatures today will climb into the upper 80s and low 90s over interior areas, with mid 80s along the coast.
Rain chances will increase somewhat after midnight tonight (to 30 to 40 percent across most of the area) as the previously mentioned trough moves east into our area. Data suggests that there could be a few stronger storms down near the coast late tonight into Friday morning. Could see some patchy overnight fog, especially in the areas that see the most rainfall during the day and evening hours Thursday. Rain chances remain high on Friday as the trough lingers over our area. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) remain highest (up to near 1.7 inches) over parts of south central AL and the western FL panhandle on Friday, and it is there that we expect the highest Probability of Precipitation (about 60 percent) and greatest coverage of showers and storms. Lows tonight ranging from the mid to upper 60s inland to the lower 70s along the immediate coast. Highs on Friday expected to be mostly in the mid to upper 80s across most of the area, but perhaps only in the lower 80s along the immediate coast. /12
Short Term - Friday Night Through Saturday Night
Shortwave energy moves through an upper level trough over the eastern Conus as the trough slowly shifts east. A strong upper ridge centered west of the Rockies shifts east, becomes centered over the Rockies. A weak cold front has stalled along the I-65 corridor. A second weak cold front has moved near the I-20 corridor by Friday evening, and will push slowly south, reaching the northern Gulf coast during the afternoon Saturday.
For Friday night, the bulk of the convection remaining over the forecast area will shift south of the coast as the second cold front approaches. With the front slowing Saturday as it moves towards the coast, isentropic upglide will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area, mainly along and southeast of I-65. This convection shifts south as significantly drier air moves south across the forecast area during the day Saturday. Saturday night is expected to be dry.
Temperatures Friday night are expected to range from around 65 north of Highway 84 to around along the coast. A bit more sun is expected Saturday as compared to Friday, allowing for better daytime heating. The cooler air is expected to remain north of the forecast area Saturday, allowing temperatures to to warm into the mid to upper 80s. Saturday night, significantly cooler and drier air will move south over the forecast area, allowing temperatures to fall to below seasonal norms over most of the forecast area. Low temperatures around 60 are expected along and north of the Highway 84 corridor to the upper 60s to around 70 along the coast. /16
EXTENDED TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...A large high-amplitude upper ridge builds over the central CONUS Sunday before gradually shifting eastward through the extended term, centering over the eastern CONUS by midweek. At the surface, high pressure likewise builds eastward from the eastern CONUS into the western Atlantic through the period. We see surface winds shift to easterly and then southeasterly by midweek. Moisture levels increase slightly as this occurs, however strong subsidence beneath the upper ridge should keep any shower or thunderstorm activity in check. There could be some low-end potential for isolated development along the afternoon sea breeze as we get closer to midweek, though there is still too much uncertainty to warrant the mention of rain in the forecast this far out. Otherwise, expecting a warm and mostly sunny forecast to prevail throughout the period. High temperatures climb into the upper 80s to low 90s (mid 80s along the coast) each afternoon. Lows dip into the low to mid 60s inland and upper 60s to low 70s along the coast each night. /49
MARINE...A light to occasionally moderate southwest to south flow continues over the marine area through Friday evening. A weak cold front approaches the marine area from the north of Friday and moves through the marine area late Friday night, with a light to occasionally moderate mostly offshore flow (mainly northeast to north) developing in the wake of the front late Friday night and continuing into the early part of next week. Little change in seas expected into the early part of next week, generally no more than around 2 or 3 feet well offshore on Friday and then no more than around 2 feet through the remainder of the forecast period, but possibly beginning to build well offshore by late Monday as winds may be increasing slightly. Winds and seas will however likely be higher in and near showers and thunderstorms today through Friday. /12
NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.