Pensacola Bay including Santa Rosa Sound Marine Forecast
|Today...Winds Light Becoming South 3 To 8 Knots. Waves Less Than 1 Foot. Patchy Fog In The Morning.|
|Tonight...South Winds 3 To 8 Knots. Waves Less Than 1 Foot. Patchy Fog After Midnight.|
|Friday...Southeast Winds 3 To 8 Knots Increasing To 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Patchy Fog In The Morning. Slight Chance Of Showers. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Friday Night...South Winds 8 To 13 Knots Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Patchy Fog After Midnight.|
|Saturday...Southeast Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Saturday Night...Southeast Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Patchy Fog.|
|Sunday...South Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Sunday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Monday...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Monday Night...Northeast Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
| Synopsis For Pascagoula MS To Okaloosa Walton County Line FL Out 60 NM Including Major Area Bays And Sounds - GMZ600|
429 AM CST Thu Feb 25 2021
A light to moderate onshore flow will persist through Friday as a frontal boundary lingers to the north over the interior southeast states with high pressure ridging in from the east over the Gulf. The light onshore flow will increase over the weekend. Patchy late night and early morning marine fog will impact bays, sounds, and near shore Gulf waters through at least early Sunday, and could be locally dense at times.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
...UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL
604am CST Thu Feb 25 2021
The Dense Fog Advisory has been expanded eastward to include coastal portions of Escambia, Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties in the western FL panhandle, as well as adjacent bays and coastal waters out 20 NM until 9am CST. At least patchy dense fog has been reported around Destin, Eglin AFB and Pensacola Naval Air Station. We will monitor trends over the next couple of hours for possible additions to the advisory, as some patches of dense fog may extend into interior parts of the western Florida panhandle and possibly into portions of Escambia/Covington counties in south central AL early this morning. High resolution guidance is generally in agreement that fog gradually lifts by 9 AM over land zones, but it is possible fog could persist after 9 AM over bays/sounds and adjacent waters. /21
NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Friday/...A zonal flow pattern aloft continues across the north central Gulf coast region early this morning, while a surface ridge of high pressure remains in place over the FL peninsula and adjacent eastern Gulf of Mexico. Weak low level warm/moist advection has allowed for surface dewpoints to rise into the upper 50s to lower 60s near coastal portions of our forecast area early this morning. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for Baldwin/Mobile AL
counties and George/Stone counties in southeast MS where HRRR/RAP and SREF probabilistic guidance show the highest potential for areas of dense fog through around 9 AM. At least patchy dense fog could also develop into portions of the western FL panhandle and possibly portions of Escambia/Covington AL counties over the next few hours and will monitor visibility trends closely for a possible eastward expansion of the advisory.
Zonal to southwesterly flow aloft will persist over the region through Friday. A weak shortwave rapidly progresses east-northeast over the Tennessee Valley on Friday. Deep layer moisture will remain rather limited across our forecast area today into tonight. However, precipitable water values increase slightly to around 1.25" over interior portions of southeast MS and southwest AL later today into tonight. This moisture in combination with weak ascent ahead of an approaching frontal boundary may aid in the development of a few showers over these interior areas today into tonight, but overall POPs will be kept low in the 20-30% range.
The weak surface boundary may remain draped over interior southeast MS/southwest AL through this evening before lifting northward as a warm front late tonight into Friday morning. Another shortwave trough embedded in the W-SW flow aloft will translate across MS/AL late tonight into Friday. The best moisture and lift associated with this feature will be focused to the north of our forecast area into Friday. However, moisture/ascent on the southern periphery of the passing shortwave will be sufficient to aid in the development of isolated to scattered rain showers across our region on Friday. An isolated thunderstorm or two can't be ruled out on Friday given modest instability over the area.
Another round of fog will be possible again late tonight into Friday morning, with the best coverage focused near the coast. Some fog may become locally dense. Warm and muggy conditions are otherwise expected today through Friday with highs in the 70s and lows tonight in the mid 50s to around 60 degrees. The rip current risk remains LOW through Friday. 25/21
Short Term - Friday Night Through Saturday Night
Zonal flow aloft transitions to southwesterly flow as an upper level ridge over the Southern Gulf begins to build to the northeast as a shortwave trough slides into the western half of the CONUS. Down in the lower levels, the local area remains on the western edge of a low-level ridge stretching from the western Atlantic into the eastern half of the Gulf. Down at the surface, an expansive surface high continues to slowly drift into the western Atlantic from the Northeast. Winds at the surface remain southerly through the short term, allowing low-level moisture to continue to pump into the area.
The increase in low-level moisture across the southern half of the area will lead to the development of patchy fog both nights. SREF probabilities for fog increase along the coast shortly after sunset on Friday night and slowly spread into the coastal counties and southern half of the area through the overnight hours. Another round of fog is possible late Saturday night into Sunday morning along the coast with the SREF probabilities also highlighting much of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama for fog during the pre-dawn hours. In addition to the fog, there is also a chance for showers and a few storms on Saturday afternoon into the early evening hours. That said, the bulk of the heavy rain during the short term timeframe will be well to our northwest.
Springtime temperature trends are in full swing during the short term. Lows on Friday night only fall into the upper 50s to low 60s across the area. Daytime highs soar into the upper 70s to low 80s by Saturday afternoon with mid to low 70s at the beaches (thanks to the cooler Gulf waters). Overnight lows on Saturday night only fall into the mid to low 60s area-wide.
Rip current risk remains LOW on Friday night, but increases to a MODERATE over the weekend. 07/mb
EXTENDED TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...A large positively tilted upper trough extending from south central Canada to the Southern California splits while advancing eastward. The northern portion will move over southeast Canada and the northeast states through Monday, while the southern portion breaks down into a shortwave trough with an embedded closed low that weakens while advancing slowly eastward, finally reaching the southern plains by midnight Monday night. Light southerly surface winds will continue over the area through Sunday evening on the backside of the surface ridge off to our east, while a weak cold front approaches from the northwest. With the northern trough passing to our north, the surface front will continue to inch further southward. The 25/00z GFS is more bullish advancing the front through the forecast area late Sunday night into Monday, while the older 24/12z ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) is more reluctant, and stalls the front before reaching the coast.
Regardless of the outcome, we are still expecting isolated to scattered showers, along with a few embedded thunderstorms, Sunday and Sunday night. The best chance of rain is still reserved for Monday with the close proximity of the front, aided by upper level impulses passing overhead in the mainly southwesterly deep-layer flow. Still to early to tell if any strong storms could occur on Monday as it all depends on if the front stalls over the area, or advances south over the northern Gulf. The forecast becomes even more difficult as we head into the remainder of the extended term as the models diverge a bit. The GFS advances the southern plains shortwave across the lower Mississippi River and southeast regions Tuesday into midweek, while the ECMWF weaken the wave and lifts it northeast over the central Mississippi River, thus keeping a weak upper ridge over the southeast states. For this period I am leaning heavily on the National Blend of Models (NBM), with a slight bias toward the newer and wetter GFS. Therefore, kept at a minimum a chance of rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the forecast on Tuesday. If the ECMWF trends closer to the GFS solution and confidence increases, I can definitely see us increasing probability of precipitation to likely on Tuesday, and possibly into midweek.
Temperatures will be very warm on Sunday with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s, followed by a slight downward trend into the mid 60s to mid 70s through the remainder of the period due to the higher rain chances. /22
MARINE...Areas of dense marine fog will be possible through the weekend, mainly late at night and in the morning, especially across bays, sounds, and near shore Gulf waters. Dense Fog Advisories will be needed at times. Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow otherwise continues through the weekend. /21
NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9am CST this morning for ALZ261>266.
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9am CST this morning for FLZ202-204- 206.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9am CST this morning for MSZ078-079.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9am CST this morning for GMZ630>636- 650-655.