Pensacola Bay including Santa Rosa Sound Marine Forecast
|Today...West Winds 18 To 23 Knots Increasing To 20 To 25 Knots. Gusts Up To 35 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet.|
|Tonight...West Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Gusts Up To 35 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet.|
|Friday...West Winds 18 To 23 Knots Diminishing To 15 To 20 Knots. Gusts Up To 30 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Friday Night...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Diminishing To 13 To 18 Knots. Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet.|
|Saturday...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 20 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
|Saturday Night...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming North 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
|Sunday...North Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
|Sunday Night...North Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
|Monday...Northeast Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
|Monday Night...North Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Less Than 1 Foot.|
| Synopsis For Pascagoula MS To Okaloosa Walton County Line FL Out 60 NM Including Major Area Bays And Sounds - GMZ600|
350 AM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021
A strong southwesterly flow becomes westerly overnight into early this morning as a strong cold front moves through the area. Gale conditions with gusts to 45 knots and high seas are expected over the open Gulf waters today through much of Friday afternoon. The strong flow then gradually tapers off through Sunday.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mobile AL
458am CDT Thu Oct 28 2021
Near Term - Rest Of Today Through Tonight
TE /Now Through Friday/...A vigorous deep low pressure system is lifting across the vicinity of northwest AR and southwest MO early this morning. A strong mid to upper level jet rounding the base of this feature has carved a deep trough of low pressure along the Mississippi Valley region. The zone of large scale ascent ahead of the upper level trough axis is shifting to the east of our forecast area and regional radar imagery indicates that the bulk of convection has moved to the east of our region as of 4am CDT. The surface cold front is also making its way into southeast MS and portions of southwest AL early this morning, where winds are shifting to the west and temperatures are dropping into the 60s.
The negatively tilted longwave trough over the central states undergoes an unusual evolution and forms a large upper low centered over the Ohio/Mississippi River confluence today, which then progresses slowly eastward through Friday. An associated surface low follows the evolving upper low to near the Ohio/Mississippi River confluence today. The cold front will continue.nue to move eastward across the CWA over the next few hours. Dry conditions will generally prevail today, except for some wrap around precipitation which will affect interior southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama this afternoon. For Friday, have gone with mainly slight chance probability of precipitation for the entire area mainly due to a series of shortwaves which move across the area combined with sufficient moisture seen in model soundings. Highs today will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s along and west of I-65 while further to the east mid to upper 70s are expected. Lows tonight will be cooler and range from the lower 50s inland to the mid 50s at the coast. Highs on Friday continue with the cooling trend and range from the upper 50s to lower 60s over much of the interior area to the mid/upper 60s at the coast.
A High Risk of rip currents is in effect through Friday night, and a High Surf Warning is in effect through 7 pm Friday for large breaking waves up to around 8 feet. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect until 8 am this morning for the potential of minor coastal flooding. A Wind Advisory is in effect until 7 pm this evening for the entire forecast area due to the potential of frequent gusts of 30 to 40 mph. We may need to extend the Wind Advisory along coastal portions of the CWA through Friday afternoon where westerly winds will likely remain elevated within a persistent deeply mixed environment. We are considering the issuance of a High Wind Warning across coastal portions of Mobile and Baldwin counties this afternoon through early Friday morning, where some of the high resolution guidance indicates the potential of frequent gusts of 40-50 mph developing near the immediate coast, including around Dauphin Island and the Fort Morgan peninsula. This potential is supported by forecast soundings around Dauphin Island, which indicate steep 0-3 km lapse rates and 35-45 kts of westerly flow within the mixed layer that could be realized in at least frequent gusts at the surface. Updates may be forthcoming to the wind products within the next couple of hours. 29/21
Short Term - Friday Night Through Saturday Night
The upper-level low located over the Tennessee River Valley starts lifting northeastward as it reattaches to the polar jet stream to the north. As it moves away from the area, upper-level winds start to weaken and gradually transition from northwesterly flow to a more zonal flow by the end of the short term period. At the surface, the tight pressure gradient giving us the strong winds on Thursday and Friday begins to weaken as the surface low pushes northeast and high pressure builds in. Winds will still be breezy on Saturday, with sustained winds around 10-15 mph inland, to near 20 mph by the coast.
Aside from some offshore showers lingering from Friday night through Saturday morning, the area will be dry and cool. Lows on Friday will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Saturday's high will be in the 60s for most areas, with communities along the coast possibly reaching 70. With winds relaxing, lows on Saturday night may run a degree or two cooler than Friday night. Lastly, a HIGH RISK of rip currents remains in effect through Friday night, becoming a MODERATE RISK by Saturday. /96
.EXTENDED TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...Upper-level flow aloft will generally be zonal for most of the extended. One or two subtle shortwaves may pass overhead on Monday, but with low PWATs (Precipitable Waters) between 0.6-0.7 inches and weak surface ridging overhead, no rain is expected. By Wednesday, moisture may try to return as a longwave trough, with an associated surface front, begins to push towards the area. Highs will generally be in the 70s and lows will range from the upper 40s to the north to the mid to upper 50s near the coast for the entire period. /96
A moderate to strong southeast flow will increase this evening as a strong cold front approaches from the west. A strong southerly flow this evening will gradually become more southwest to west late tonight into Thursday morning as the cold front moves through the marine area. Gale conditions are likely, especially in frequent gusts, over most of the marine area Thursday through Friday afternoon in the wake of the front with strong west to northwest winds expected. The strong northwesterly flow gradually diminishes over the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for tonight, Gale Warnings for all Marine areas Thursday through Friday afternoon (may diminish over bays earlier and we will monitor), then Small Craft Advisory gradually ends into the weekend. /12
NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...Wind Advisory until 7pm CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 8am CDT this morning for ALZ263>266.
High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for ALZ265-266.
High Surf Warning until 7pm CDT Friday for ALZ265-266.
FL...Wind Advisory until 7pm CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.
High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ202-204- 206.
High Surf Warning until 7pm CDT Friday for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...Wind Advisory until 7pm CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7am CDT this morning for GMZ630>636- 650-655-670-675.
Small Craft Advisory from 4pm Friday to 6pm CDT Saturday for GMZ650-655-670-675.
Gale Warning until 4pm CDT Friday for GMZ630>636-650-655-670- 675.
Small Craft Advisory from 4pm to 7pm CDT Friday for GMZ631-632.