Pensacola Bay including Santa Rosa Sound Marine Forecast
| Today...Northeast Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming Southeast Early This Afternoon, Then Becoming South Late. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms This Afternoon. |
| Tonight...West Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming North After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Smooth. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening. |
| Tuesday...Northeast Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming Southeast Around 5 Knots In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Smooth. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Tuesday Night...Southwest Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming North After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Smooth. |
| Wednesday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Southeast In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Wednesday Night...West Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming Northeast After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. |
| Thursday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming East 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Moderate Chop. |
| Thursday Night...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Moderate Chop. |
| Friday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming East 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Moderate Chop. |
| Friday Night...East Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming Northeast After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 244am CDT Monday September 21 2026 ...N Marine .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 243am CDT Monday September 21 2026 - Scattered, mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms are expected through Tuesday. A few storms could be strong with gusty winds being the main threat. - Above normal temperatures push heat indices into the 100-106 degree range through Wednesday. Issued at 1230am CDT Monday September 21 2026 Through Wednesday...a closed upper low over the Florida Gulf coast opens into a mean upper trough over the Southeast, which then shifts east as an upper high over the Southern Plains builds over the Southeast. A closed upper low meanders around over the northeastern Conus, and in combination with a surface low organizing off the East Coast, shift a surface boundary north of the Southeast south over the region. The push is greater west of the Mississippi River, shifting a drier airmass southeast over the Southeast, and dropping precipitable h20 values around 2" over the forecast area south. Guidance is inconsistent with the shift, with some dropping moisture levels to 1.5" or less by Wednesday evening (most mesoscale models) to 1.5"-2" (the global models and ensembles). Any which way one cuts it, POPs drop into mid week. In combination with the building upper ridge, scattered Probability of Precipitation Monday drop to isolated, seabreeze driven by Wednesday. As with this time of the year, enough instability, both MLCapes (around 2500J/kg) and DCapes (700-1000J/kg) are enough for a few strong to marginally severe pulse type storms to be possible each afternoon/evening into mid week. Subsidence from the upper ridge will keep temperatures above seasonal norms into mid week. High temperatures in the 90-95 degree range are expected. Boundary layer moisture remains high enough for heat indices to top out in the 100-106 degree range. Low temperatures do see a bit of a drop with the drop in deep layer moisture, from low to mid 70s Monday night, to the upper 60s to around 70 inland, mid 70s along the coast Wednesday night. Thursday on...as the surface low off the East Coast organizes a bit more, then moves north along the coast, a secondary cold front moves southwest along the Appalachians, reinforcing the dry air over the Southeast along with dropping temperatures to near seasonal norms by the end of the coming weekend. Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, generally light flow over the Gulf will keep the rip risk low through the week. A more moderate easterly flow sets up along the northern Gulf coast in the coming weekend, bringing a moderate to high risk of rip currents in the coming weekend. /16 Marine Issued at 243am CDT Monday September 21 2026 A mainly light diurnal flow prevails through Wednesday with winds becoming onshore flow each afternoon then offshore at night. A moderate to occasionally strong northeasterly flow develops late Wednesday night into Thursday morning and persists through Friday. Seas will be around 1 foot, then slowly build to 3 to 5 feet Thursday into Friday. Small craft may occasionally need to exercise caution over the open Gulf Thursday into Friday. /29 NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. |
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