Pensacola Bay including Santa Rosa Sound Marine Forecast
| Today...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Chance Of Showers. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms This Morning, Then A Chance Of Thunderstorms This Afternoon. |
| Tonight...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming East After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Thursday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Thursday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Early In The Evening, Then A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Late Evening And Early Morning. |
| Friday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Friday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots, Becoming Northeast 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Saturday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming East In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Saturday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Sunday...Northeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Sunday Night...East Winds Around 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Early In The Evening. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion ...CORRECTED National Weather Service Mobile AL 518am CDT Wednesday September 27 2023 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TER Marine Near Term (Now through Thursday) Issued at 518am CDT Wednesday September 27 2023 A somewhat complex upper air and surface pattern remains in place across our region early this morning. An upper level low continues to slowly move across the vicinity of the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes while a larger scale upper level trough extends across the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and southward across the Gulf Coast states. At the surface, a trough of low pressure is located across the central Gulf, while a rather strong ridge of high pressure is building from the Appalachians into the southeastern U.S. Isolated to scattered showers and storms have occasionally developed over portions of our marine area along the northern periphery of the surface trough overnight, but inland areas have remained dry. Low level cloud decks have been increasing coverage as expected across much of south central/southwest AL and the western FL panhandle early this morning. Deep layer moisture will be most abundant generally along and to the southeast of the I-65 corridor today where precipitable water values will generally average between 1.5 and 1.9 inches (values highest along the AL and western FL panhandle coast). A drier airmass with associated precipitable water values of 1.25 to 1.4 inches will generally reside across interior portions of southeast MS and southwest AL. Much like yesterday, convection will probably tend to be fairly limited over inland areas with better coverage mainly focused near the coast and offshore waters in areas of deepest moisture along the northern periphery of the inverted surface trough axis. Moisture will still remain sufficient along the base of the upper trough axis to maintain a chance of rain generally along and southeast of I-65, with lesser coverage over interior southeast MS and southwest AL. Low clouds may otherwise hold in place across much of the area with the surface ridge building in from the northeast. Temperatures are expected to be cooler with highs only looking to range from around 80 to the mid 80s along and east of I-65, with warmer readings in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the western half of the forecast area. Isolated to scattered showers and storms may linger into the evening, mainly becoming focused near the immediate coast and especially offshore late tonight. Lows tonight will range in the mid to upper 60s over much of the area, except generally between 70-75 near the immediate coast and beaches. The upper level trough generally extends across the Tennessee Valley again on Thursday, with weak upper troughing also extending along coastal portions of the western FL panhandle, AL, MS, and LA. Deep layer moisture will once again be most enhanced along coastal portions of our CWA (County Warning Area) on Thursday, with precipitable water values between 1.75 and 2 inches. A lower PWAT (Precipitable Water) airmass will be in place across the rest of the region. We will maintain a chance of showers and storms mainly across locations along and south of the I-10 corridor Thursday, with POPs decreasing further inland. Highs should range in the lower to mid 80s along and east of I-65 and in the mid to upper 80s across the remainder of southwest AL and southeast MS. Easterly flow will persist through the latter part of the week and into this weekend with a gradual build in surf along area beaches. A MODERATE risk of rip currents is forecast today through Thursday, with the risk increasing to HIGH Thursday night through at least the first half of the weekend. /21 .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Friday night) Issued at 518am CDT Wednesday September 27 2023 An upper level shortwave trough over the Southeast meanders eastward a bit as an upper level ridge building north over the Plains from high pressure centered over Mexico shifts east. A surface ridge that has organized on the east side of the Appalachians moves a drier airmass southwest over the Southeast behind a weak cold front, keeping showers and thunderstorms over the forecast area along and south of the northern Gulf coast. With the drier airmass moving over the forecast area allowing for more efficient daytime heating and nighttime cooling, the temperature range opens. Temperatures Friday top out in the mid 80s to around 90, an uptick from Thursday. Temperatures Thursday and Friday night bottom out in the low 60s north of Highway 84 to around 70 along the coast. /16 Long Term (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 518am CDT Wednesday September 27 2023 The upper level trough (which has organized into a closed upper low over the coast) moves off, with the Plains upper ridge continuing to shift east to over the Mississippi River. The surface ridge along the Appalachians shifts south, bringing a more northeast to easterly flow to the forecast area, maintaining the dry airmass over most of the forecast area. The result is any precipitation being generally over open Gulf waters and temperatures remaining well above seasonal norms. /16 Marine Issued at 518am CDT Wednesday September 27 2023 An inverted trough of low pressure will slowly drift westward across the western Gulf through the end of the week while a strong surface ridge of high pressure builds into the southeastern U.S. and adjacent northern Gulf. The resultant pressure gradient will bring moderate to occasionally strong easterly flow to the marine area through the end of the week and likely persisting into this weekend. Wind speeds will range between 15-20 knots (Small Craft Exercise Caution thresholds) over the Gulf marine zones for the next few days, and possibly at times over some area bays and sounds. Wind speeds may border around Small Craft Advisory thresholds (around 20 knots) Thursday into Friday, but with some variability in the available guidance, we opted to maintain SCEC headlines and let later shifts assess the need for a Small Craft Advisory issuance. Seas will gradually build through the end of the week. An unsettled weather pattern also continues over the marine area through the end of the week with scattered to numerous showers and storms developing each day. Locally strong winds and seas can be expected near the stronger storms that develop, while waterspouts also remain possible. /21 NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. |
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