Pensacola Bay including Santa Rosa Sound Marine Forecast
| Today...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Moderate Chop. |
| Tonight...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Moderate Chop. |
| Tuesday...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 30 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Wednesday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Wednesday Night...Southwest Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming Northwest After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Smooth. |
| Thursday...North Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming West In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Smooth. |
| Thursday Night...Northwest Winds Around 5 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Smooth. |
| Friday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. |
| Friday Night...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1101pm CST Sunday Nov 1 2026 Issued at 1023pm CST Sunday Nov 1 2026 Latest water vapor imagery shows an amplified trough extending southward through the Rockies and a broad ridge over the central CONUS. Several weaknesses continue to rotate around the ridge, sparking isolated showers across the region. At the surface, strong high pressure off the southeastern coast has kept our winds from the east and this trend should continue through the overnight hours. As we head into the overnight hours, clouds will keep things fairly mild and lows will only fall into the lower 60s areawide. The new work week will start off dry, as ridging and high pressure maintain their hold on the weather pattern. Under partly to mostly cloudy skies, temps will warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s. The aforementioned trough will make its way eastward, reaching the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. A cold front will develop and trail southward from its parent low over the Great Lakes. Over the local area, Tuesday will be another dry day, though rain chances will begin to increase late Tuesday as isentropic lift increases along the northward moving warm front. The trough will begin to broaden a bit Tuesday night, as the surface cold front moves east of the Mississippi River. Although there are some discrepancies with the timing, latest model runs are centering on the cold front sweeping through the area on Wednesday, moving east of the area by Thursday. Given the overall set up with this system, the chance for severe thunderstorms remains minimal at this point. There are a few limiting factors that we'll be watching to see how things evolve. The primary limiting factor is the weakening trend of the trough as it moves eastward. Although it does take on a negative tilt as it crosses into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, it begins to broaden out quite a bit. Several shortwaves will rotate around the base of the trough, but these may be too little too late given that if it does weaken, much of the dynamics will remain well to our north. Along those same lines, our lapse rates are fairly weak as we lack significant height falls which in turn will limit the instability. So all in all, our forcing and wind shear will be shunted to the north and our instability limited. Where these parameters peak do not overlap up in timing to give us a favorable environment for severe thunderstorms. The daytime arrival of the front and associated storms is favorable if we're able to tap into the diurnal heating, but we will still lack the forcing and shear to lend organized convection. As mentioned above, the front will move east of the area by Thursday, with high pressure settling in its wake. Drier air will filter into the region bringing a return to near normal temperatures. Highs will still warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s on Thursday and Friday, but overnight lows will fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s. A reinforcing cold front will move through over the weekend, bringing even cooler daytime highs to the area. /73 Marine Issued at 1100pm CST Sunday Nov 1 2026 A moderate to strong easterly flow will continue through Monday, before winds shift to the southeast on Tuesday. A cold front will move through the region on Wednesday, with winds decreasing and becoming offshore on Thursday. /73 NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories AL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6pm CST Tuesday for GMZ650-655-670- 675. |
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