Marine Weather Net

Pensacola Bay including Santa Rosa Sound Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

S
WINDS
3 - 8
KNOTS

FRIDAY

LIGHT
WINDS

FRIDAY NIGHT

SW
WINDS
3 - 8
KNOTS

SATURDAY

N
WINDS
3 - 8
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ634 Forecast Issued: 333 PM CST Thu Nov 26 2020

Tonight...South Winds 3 To 8 Knots Becoming Light. Waves Around 1 Foot.
Friday...Winds Light Becoming South 3 To 8 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.
Friday Night...Southwest Winds 3 To 8 Knots Becoming Northwest. Waves Around 1 Foot. Showers Likely And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Saturday...North Winds 3 To 8 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Slight Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.
Saturday Night...Northeast Winds 3 To 8 Knots Becoming East 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then Showers Likely And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms After Midnight.
Sunday...Southeast Winds 8 To 13 Knots Becoming South 10 To 15 Knots. Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet. Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Sunday Night...West Winds 18 To 23 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. Chance Of Showers.
Monday...Northwest Winds 18 To 23 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet.
Monday Night...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet.
Tuesday...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.
Tuesday Night...Northwest Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.
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Synopsis For Pascagoula MS To Okaloosa Walton County Line FL Out 60 NM Including Major Area Bays And Sounds - GMZ600
333 PM CST Thu Nov 26 2020

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will continue through the remainder of the work week. A weak front will bring a brief period of light to moderate offshore flow on Saturday. Another weather system is then expected to bring moderate onshore flow Sunday, followed by strong offshore flow in the wake of a cold front Sunday night through early next week.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
558pm CST Thu Nov 26 2020

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Friday/...Aloft, a series of shortwaves will progress over the Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio valleys while the northern Gulf coast is mainly under the influence of zonal flow. At the surface, a stalled front is draped over the I- 65 corridor and will persist through much of the near term period. Although, the front may meander northward slightly during this time. This has resulted in isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms along and east of I-65 today. Isolated showers will remain possible this evening and overnight, particularly north of I- 10. However, a slug of moisture (PWATs (Precipitable Waters) between 1.6-1.75 inches) will move into the local area from the west on Friday. This combined with a fairly stout upper level jet will increase PoPs, especially over southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama where the greater deep layer moisture is shown by model guidance. Instability will be modest, but bulk shear will be around 35 knots. Thus, thunderstorms will also be possible through the day on Friday. Although, no severe weather is anticipated at this time.

A concern for later this evening and overnight will be the potential for fog development. Model probabilities are heavily suggesting the possibility of fog for most of our area through Friday morning, even some dense fog as well. For now, will defer the issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory to later shifts so updated model guidance and real-time observations can be taken into account to determine how widespread the dense fog will be. This fog is not necessarily expected to quickly dissipate early Friday morning. In fact, it could potentially linger into late morning due to an increase in moisture over the region. Although, this will continue to be monitored with subsequent updates.

Lows tonight are still expected to be in the mid 50s to lower 60s north of I-10 and in the mid to upper 60s south. Highs Friday afternoon will then be in the lower to mid 70s over southeast Mississippi as well as most of southwest and south-central Alabama. Meanwhile, the rest of the local area (including the western Florida Panhandle) will mainly be in the mid to upper 70s. Lastly, there is a MODERATE RISK of rip currents through Saturday night. /26

Short Term - Friday Night Through Sunday Night
It will be the tale of two systems as a series of upper impulses within zonal flow traverse the forecast area Friday night, followed by a strong upper shortwave with a possible embedded closed low passing over the region on Sunday. Deep layer moisture will be in place by Friday evening with precipitable water values between 1.5 to 1.8 inches as the upper impulses pass overhead, resulting in numerous to definite rain chances with a few embedded thunderstorms moving through the area from west to east through much of the night. Periods of localized heavy rain will be possible as well. With a weak frontal boundary moving further south over the northern gulf, drier air will filter into the area from the north late Friday night and Saturday with lingering light rain showers tapering off from north of south.

A surface low associated with the next system forms near the northern Texas coast Saturday evening and advances across southern Louisiana after midnight Saturday night through noon Sunday, while the frontal boundary which earlier moved into the northern gulf begins to return slowly northward as a warm front. Numerous to definite rain chances with a few embedded thunderstorms will again pass through the area from west to east, mainly from midnight Saturday night and throughout the day Sunday, with again localized heavy rain possible. Drier air will filter into the area from the west Sunday night as a cold front passes through the area, with any remaining rain tapering off.

Lows Friday night range from the 50s across our northwest zones with lower 60s elsewhere. Lows Saturday night will be a bit cooler, and range from around 50 to the lower 50s well inland to near 60 at the coast. High temperatures over the weekend will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s. A moderate risk of rip currents Friday night and Saturday is expected to increase to high on Sunday. /22

EXTENDED TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...A much colder and drier airmass looks to be in store across our forecast area during the early to middle part of next week as we will be located on the southern periphery of an anomalously deep trough over the eastern CONUS. Cold advection along northwesterly to westerly surface flow should continue between the deep surface low pressure system lifting toward the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley regions and high pressure across the plains. This pattern will result in much below normal temperatures across our region Monday through the reminder of the extended term. Highs Monday look to be in the 50s at best, with some inland locations possibly struggling to reach 50 degrees. Slight cooler highs are expected on Tuesday. We will likely have our first freeze of the season Monday and Tuesday nights, especially along and north of I-10. Lows should range in the mid 20s to around 30 degrees both nights, perhaps a little warmer in the mid to upper 30s near the immediate coast. /22

MARINE...With a surface front stalling over the I-65 corridor, a light to at times moderate onshore flow will persist over the Gulf waters through the remainder of the work week. Another weak surface front will progress over the marine area on Saturday, bringing a brief period of light to moderate offshore flow before a more potent storm system moves northeast across the region on Sunday. This system is expected to bring moderate to strong offshore flow in the wake of a cold front into early next week. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed to account for this, but gusts to gale force are possible as well. /26

NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...Dense Fog Advisory from 11pm this evening to 8am CST Friday for ALZ052-053-055>060-261>266.

FL...Dense Fog Advisory from 11pm this evening to 8am CST Friday for FLZ201>206.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory from 11pm this evening to 8am CST Friday for MSZ075-076-078-079.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 10am CST Friday for GMZ630>636-650-655.