Eastport ME to Schoodic Point ME out 25 NM Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Showers Likely. Areas Of Fog. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.|
|Sun...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Seas 1 To 2 Ft. Scattered Showers. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm In The Morning.|
|Sun Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Building To 4 To 6 Ft After Midnight. Showers Likely, Mainly In The Evening. Areas Of Fog. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.|
|Tue...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Areas Of Fog. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.|
|Tue Night...S Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Areas Of Fog. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.|
|Wed...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Areas Of Fog In The Morning With Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.|
|Wed Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. Areas Of Fog After Midnight With Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.|
|Thu...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. Areas Of Fog In The Morning. A Chance Of Showers Through The Day. A Chance Of Tstms. Showers Likely Through The Night. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less In The Morning.|
|Fri...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 7 Ft. Showers Likely In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Tstms Through The Night. A Chance Of Showers. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1214am EDT Monday July 23 2018
Synopsis: Low pressure will remain to the southwest of the region tonight. Unsettled weather and humid conditions will continue through next week.
Near Term - Through Today
12 am update...Showers are introducing a very humid air mass that will persist through much of the week. With dew points climbing to around 70F and an onshore flow, fog and stratus are the primary concerns through the period. The other challenge in the northern half of the area will be the possibility of afternoon heating creating thunderstorms. If any SBCAPE can develop in the northern zones this afternoon, showers could be locally heavy with PWATs over 2 inches and slow storm motions. The upstream Chatham 00Z sounding hints at the potential instability.
Prev discussion blo... Strong high pressure will remain over the Atlantic well to the east of New England tonight and Monday. At the same time low pressure will persist to the southwest of the region. High pressure continues to ridge across eastern and northern Maine, so expect rain to be slow to move into these areas. Showers are expected to over spread the entire region by later this evening. Showers are expected to continue Monday however thunderstorms appear unlikely at this time.
Short Term - Tonight Through Wednesday
Anomalous mid-level 500mb ridge builds off the coast of the Canadian Maritimes Monday night into Tuesday. This will create relativity stable mid-level lapse rates, which will cap shower and thunderstorm activity for most of the region. There will still be a persistent southerly moist onshore flow which will a muggy airmass in place. The difficult part of the forecast will be how deep the marine layer is on the coast. Have introduced the chance for some drizzle on the coast, especially after midnight to early in the morning. Further inland morning low level stratus below 1000ft and areas of fog will be likely which should burn off by the afternoon allowing temperatures to reach the low 80s. This will cause it to be muggy during both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. Have limited rain threats mostly across the Northwoods on Tuesday. Shower and isolated thunderstorm chances begin to creep back up on Wednesday but still some uncertainty in the model guidance on coverage and how far east in the CWA this threat spreads. Took a blend approach, but it is possible that we may have trend drier on this forecast.
Long Term - Wednesday Night Through Sunday
Canadian Maritime 500mb ridge begins to weaken and move further east in response to a Ohio river short wave trough moving towards Maine late Wednesday night into Thursday. Thursday continues to look like the best chance for widespread rain with all guidance in agreement on the shortwave trough and weak surface boundary pushing through the state. If there is going to be a chance for locally heavy rain, Thursday is looking like the highest threat day and will have to be watched. By Friday most guidance has a slow moving long wave trough over the Great Lakes region with another cold front expected to move through the area, but timing differences still exist. Have kept the chance for showers and slight chance thunderstorms going straight into the weekend due to model spread making it difficult to resolve actual timing of features. Looks like it could be cooler and briefly drier by the end of the weekend at this point.
Near Term: For winds: Will use a 50/50 blend of the Nam and Gfs to initialize the grids and will reduce model wind speed by 10 percent to adjust to suppression of wind due to cold sea surface temperature in the low 50s stabilizing the lower boundary layer. For Waves: Currently wind wave is running under 1 foot under light winds and the primary wave system is longer period southerly swell (2-3 feet/7-8 seconds). Expect southerly swell to remain the primary wave system through Monday, building to around 5-6 feet/8-9 seconds early Monday then subsiding later in the day into the evening. Will use NWPS to initialize waves then reduce wave heigheights by 1 foot into this evening to adjust for model bias. Will issue an Small Craft Advisory for outer waters for seas later tonight. Total Water Level: Will keep the Base Tide Anomaly along the coast at +0.10 through the period. Adjustments made for low tide anomaly in Bangor still look good.
Short Term: Seas will generally remain around 3-4 feet on Tuesday and Wednesday, before building to Small Craft Advisory conditions by Thursday again. Periods of locally dense fog are also possible through this period.
NOAA Caribou ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 5pm EDT this afternoon for ANZ050-051.