Eastport ME to Schoodic Point ME out 25 NM Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft.|
|Mon...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 7 Ft.|
|Mon Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Tue...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Tue Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Wed...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Wed Night...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Thu...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming Nw 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Fri...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N. Seas 2 To 3 Ft, Subsiding To 1 To 2 Ft.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1023pm EST Sunday Jan 26 2020
Low pressure will slowly move northeast of the region tonight and Monday. A cold front approaches from the north late Monday, then crosses the area Monday night. High pressure builds across the region later Tuesday into Friday.
Near Term - Through Monday
1015 pm Snow is blossoming across the north as expected as s/wv mvs in fm the south. 00z raob from KCAR showed very little cloud ice available this evening but this has since returned pretty much right on time. Latest guidance conts to show snow re-developing acrs the north thru about 09z. Have confined accumulating snow more to the St. John Vly with between 3-5 inches falling overnight with lesser amnts to the south. Will allow northern Somerset and Piscataquis counties to expire at midnight as best mid-level instability looks to be confined across far northern Aroostook. Other than a few tweaks no major changes needed with this update.
Previous discussion... Fog is beginning to slowly clear from southwest to northeast this evening as winds shift behind the surface low and the maritime polar air mass is displaced by a continental polar air mass. Lack of cloud ice and a lingering warm nose aloft are contributing to some light rain and drizzle across most areas, but to the north near Frenchville precipitation types have been back and forth between drizzle and light snow. Deeper moisture and stronger forcing are expected tonight along with cold air advection, which will transition precipitation over to snow and increase its intensity.
There are still significant differences among model guidance regarding the placement of heavier snow amounts tonight, though the NAM has trended closer to the RGEM and other guidance in showing a band of heavier snow across the Saint John Valley tonight. Water vapor satellite imagery shows a sharp shortwave trough rotating around the parent upper low and becoming negatively tilted over southern Maine as of 20z. MRMS shows an expanding precipitation field heading towards the area from the southwest. A surface low currently located over Northern Washington County will continue to move north-northeast with deformation banding setting up to its west tonight, mainly over northernmost forecast zones 1 and 2. It appears zones 3 and 4 over the North s will receive less snow, but decided to keep the zones in the WWA for now given potential for up to two inches of additional snow. Snow amounts themselves are not expected to reach advisory criteria for most areas except the far north, but it is a continuing event and impacts may be more significant given that roads underneath any snow may be icy or refreeze tonight.
Precipitation will taper off to snow showers and flurries during the day Monday. Most areas will receive less than an inch of snow after 12z as the upper level and surface lows exit the area and Cold Air Advection takes over with NW flow.
Short Term - Monday Night Through Tuesday Night
A cold front will exit across the Gulf of Maine early Monday night, with an upper trough crossing the region overnight through early Tuesday. Expect mostly cloudy cloud skies across the north and mountains Monday night, with a chance of snow showers early. Across the remainder of the forecast area expect mostly cloudy skies early, then partly cloudy late. Expect mostly cloudy skies early Tuesday across the north and mountains, then a partly cloudy afternoon. Partly cloudy skies are expected across the remainder of the region Tuesday. High pressure will build toward the region, from the northwest, Tuesday night through Wednesday. Cloud cover will decrease Tuesday night. Mostly sunny/partly cloudy skies are expected across northern areas Wednesday, with mostly sunny skies Downeast. Temperatures will be at slightly above normal levels Tuesday, with near normal level temperatures Wednesday.
Long Term - Wednesday Through Sunday
High pressure will build across the region Wednesday night through Friday with generally mostly clear/partly cloudy skies north, mostly clear Downeast. High pressure should persist early Saturday. Significant uncertainty still exists later Saturday through Sunday regarding the intensity and track of potential low pressure which will ultimately determine precipitation chances, types and amounts. Near normal level temperatures are expected Thursday. Temperatures should warm to above normal levels Friday through Sunday.
Near Term: Extended SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for the outer waters until 21z due to seas remaining elevated. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions will continue through late tonight before winds and waves decrease in the intracoastal waters. Visibility will improve from west to east by this evening.
Short Term: Small craft advisory conditions possible Monday night. Conditions below small craft advisory levels Tuesday through early Wednesday. Wind gusts could begin to reach small craft advisory levels later Wednesday.
NOAA Caribou ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 5am EST Monday for MEZ001-002. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for MEZ003- 004.
Small Craft Advisory until 4am EST Monday for ANZ052. Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EST Monday for ANZ050-051.