Eastport ME to Schoodic Point ME out 25 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...E Winds Around 5 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 1 To 2 Ft, Building To 2 To 4 Ft After Midnight. A Chance Of Snow Or Rain After Midnight. Snow Or Rain Late. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm After Midnight, Decreasing To 1 Nm Or Less By Daybreak.|
|Fri...E Winds 25 To 30 Kt, Becoming Ne 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft, Building To 7 To 10 Ft In The Afternoon. Rain Or Snow Or Sleet In The Morning, Then Rain In The Afternoon. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.|
|Fri Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming W 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 8 To 11 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Evening With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Sat...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft, Subsiding To 4 To 7 Ft In The Afternoon.|
|Sat Night...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Sun Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S With Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas Around 2 Ft. Rain Likely With A Chance Of Snow After Midnight With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Mon...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W In The Afternoon, Then Becoming Nw 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Rain And Snow Likely In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Rain In The Afternoon. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm In The Morning.|
|Tue...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Snow Showers Through The Night.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Caribou ME
413pm EST Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis: Low pressure will approach from the southwest tonight, track across the Gulf of Maine Friday afternoon, then across Nova Scotia Friday night. A cold front will cross Saturday night and bring more Arctic air for Sunday and early next week.
Near Term - Through Friday
Models are in a little better agreement with the track of the surface low xpctd to approache from the mid Atlc states coast by Fri morn, with greater number of solutions favoring the more progressive southern track toward the S Nova Scotia coast by Fri eve. With this in mind, we believe the greatest potential will be over N and E Cntrl ptns of the FA. Far Northern ptns of the our FA will experience a later start in snfl (mid to late Fri morn) compared to the rest of the Region. with snfl here in the steady lgt intensity, with perhaps some trowal-dendritic sn banding setting up over this ptn of the FA by erly eve.
Downeast areas will see a late night inset of sn, with sn likely mixing with or chgng to sleet and rain along the immediate coast by mid to late Fri morn, continuing mixed til mid Fri afternoon, before briefly chgng back to sn late in the afternoon prior to ending erly Fri eve. A narrow belt of mostly sleet will likely affect ptns of the Lower Penobscot and interior Downeast from late morn to erly afternoon, lowering total snfl here somewhat, but not as much reduction as the coast. In generating the hourly forecast weather types, we employed the top-down method using the NAM, but kept the transition zones closer to the coast in deference to colder models tracking the low further S. It should be noted that not much in fzra was indicated with this event, which was supported by the SREF precipitation probs, which supported sn and sleet over the Srn third of our FA over fzra with this event.
With all said and done in generating the snfl stm totals including the myriad of precipitation types over the Srn third of the FA where the greatest stm total Quantitative Precipitation Forecast is xpctd was to go with wntr stm wrngs for zones 15, 31, and 10 mostly for public impact, particularly zone 15 (lower penobscot vly) where totals are slightly below wntr stm thresholds. Elsewhere we went with wntr weather advs where either precipitation type or stm total Quantitative Precipitation Forecast was still uncertain, with the GFS dtmnstc and ensm solutions a concern with relatively lighter amts.
Short Term - Friday Night Through Sunday
Most places will be done with snow Friday evening. However, a weak trough of warm air aloft over Northeast Maine will keep snow going the longest there with another inch or two Friday evening before finally ending.
Not much wind (10-15 mph) behind the system so not expecting much blowing snow Friday night and Saturday...just a bit in localized open areas. Actually somewhat mild on Saturday (the warmest day of the week), with highs in the low 30s north and low 40s Downeast.
Weak system moving through Saturday night with a few snow showers mainly over the north and limited if any accumulation. About 10 degrees colder Sunday behind the weak system.
Long Term - Sunday Night Through Thursday
Unseasonably cold weather persisting. Models having a lot of issues with timing of systems in the extended. However, don't expect any of the systems to be strong. Also, high confidence in cold to very cold temperatures. Best chance of a weak system is Monday, but even then, just went with 40 to 60 PoPs
Near Term: Will cont with the current gale wrng, with winds and seas xpctd to ramp up quickly durg the ovrngt hrs as the pres gradient ahead of the coastal low approaches. E Winds will reach a max durg the morn and midday hrs, then begin to slowly decrease durg the afternoon, dropping below gale criteria late in the afternoon behind the low as the direction becomes NW. Went with a NWPS/WW3 guidance blend for forecast wv heights.
Short Term: Small craft Friday night and Saturday, but with a gradual subsiding in winds and seas. Below small craft Saturday night through Sunday night. Potential weak system Monday which could bring a return to small craft
NOAA Caribou ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 8am Friday to 2am EST Saturday for MEZ001-002. Winter Weather Advisory from 5am to 11pm EST Friday for MEZ003>006-011-032. Winter Weather Advisory from 3am to 8pm EST Friday for MEZ016-017-029-030. Winter Storm Warning from 2am to 8pm EST Friday for MEZ010- 015-031.
Gale Warning from 3am to 4pm EST Friday for ANZ050>052