Eastport ME to Schoodic Point ME out 25 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming N Late. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Isolated Tstms This Evening. Rain Until Early Morning, Then Scattered Showers Late. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm Until Early Morning.|
|Thu...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Scattered Showers In The Morning.|
|Thu Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Fri...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Fri Night...S Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Ne 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Sat...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.|
|Sat Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Evening.|
|Sun...Nw Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming W. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Mon...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Caribou ME
619pm EDT Wednesday May 5 2021
Low pressure will cross the Gulf of Maine tonight and exit into the Maritimes Thursday. High pressure builds into the area later Thursday into Friday with low pressure expected to track south and east of the area Saturday into Monday.
Near Term - Through Thursday
6 PMRain has been spotty and variable in intensity through the afternoon with a bit of a break early this evening across central areas. However, a more solid area of rain supported by a shortwave lifting up into southwestern New England this evening is now spreading into southern parts of the region. This more solid area of moderate rain will spread north through the evening reaching northern Maine late this evening. The back end of this solid area of rain will taper rain off Downeast around midnight and across the north around dawn. Forecast remains on track with temps holding in the mid 40s across the area.
The two areas of low pressure bringing the rain today, will continue to slowly move to the E. Rain across northern and eastern Maine will be most consistent this evening as the second low passes to the south. Recent Quantitative Precipitation Forecast models show that the majority of the rainfall accumulations will be in the north and Downeast. In addition, models are still in agreement with elevated instability over coastal waters and immediate coastal Downeast, thus isolated thunderstorms have been kept in the forecast for this evening. 925-850mb temperatures show that temperatures are expected to cool only slightly throughout tonight due to cloud cover.
By Thursday, the low over the Gulf of Maine should move NE out over the Maritimes, taking the rest of the moisture with it. However, this dissipation will be slow, starting in the south by the morning, then gradually north into the afternoon. As the system exits, tightening pressure gradients and a LLJ on the backside of the low should increase NW winds, causing a breezy afternoon for the entire region. A weak ridge should move in by the evening, helping clear out the skies and allowing temperatures to warm near normal in the south, but lingering clouds in the north will keep temps in the upper 40s.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Thursday Night...Any remaining showers Thursday evening should dissipate pretty quickly as skies clear with high pressure moving in. Setting up for a chilly night. Western portions of the area have the best chance of fully decoupling and cooling off, as high pressure is moving in from the west. Went for lows in the upper 20s over the North s and for 30s elsewhere.
Friday...Surface high pressure over the area. Quiet, pleasant day with mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Sea breeze likely near the coast in the afternoon.
Friday Night and Saturday...Still fairly low confidence in the forecast late Friday night into Saturday associated with a moderately strong Nor'easter tracking NE through the NW Atlantic. Models have trended a little stronger with the system, but also are converging a bit on a more eastern track. This would keep impacts pretty minimal over the area with just a NE breeze and some increased clouds. Didn't lower Probability of Precipitation as much as the recent NBM has, but did trend Probability of Precipitation down from what was there, and went with chance Probability of Precipitation over about the SE 1/2 of the forecast area. Need to watch closely though, as it could be a rather potent system and a bit of a further west track would make a big difference for far Eastern Maine.
Long Term - Saturday Night Through Wednesday
Remaining rather cool in the extended as an upper trough persists over the Eastern US and Eastern Canada. With cold air aloft, each day will feature some diurnal convection and went with chance of showers most afternoons through midweek, with things drying out at night. Temperatures a bit cooler than average. Toward late Wednesday or Thursday, the Eastern US/Eastern Canada trough appears to move through which could lead to drier weather Thursday/Friday.
Near Term: Below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions expected. Winds will decrease this evening, with wave heigheights around 3-5 ft as low pressure passes north of Maine, with another low pressure entering the Gulf of Maine this evening. Patchy fog develops this evening, with some thunder also possible. By Thursday, the exiting low will increase NW winds to 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts. Waves will remain 3-5 ft.
Short Term: High pressure builds in Thursday night and moves over the waters Friday, allowing for winds and seas to remain below small craft. Late Friday night into Saturday, N wind increase and winds and seas may approach small craft levels. Tentatively think that winds/seas will stay just below small craft as low pressure passes east of the area, but if the system tracks any closer then small craft would occur. Lighter SW breeze for Monday.
NOAA Caribou ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories