Eastport ME to Schoodic Point ME out 25 NM Marine Forecast
|This Afternoon...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Tonight...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 To 2 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Thu...Se Winds Around 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Building To 4 To 6 Ft In The Afternoon. Rain In The Afternoon With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Thu Night...Se Winds 25 To 35 Kt, Becoming W 25 To 30 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 50 Kt. Seas 8 To 11 Ft, Building To 8 To 13 Ft After Midnight. Rain. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.|
|Fri...Sw Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 45 Kt, Becoming W 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 8 To 11 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.|
|Fri Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft, Subsiding To 4 To 7 Ft After Midnight. A Chance Of Rain In The Evening.|
|Sat...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Subsiding To 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Sun...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming S After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Rain After Midnight.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1230pm EDT Wednesday April 8 2020
High pressure will build across the region through tonight. Intensifying low pressure will cross the region Thursday then exit across the Maritimes Friday through Saturday. High pressure will cross the region Sunday.
.NEAR TERM Through Tonight
Update... High pressure centered across northern Quebec province will ridge south across the forecast area this afternoon. With diurnal cloud development, expect partly sunny skies across northern areas this afternoon with mostly/partly sunny skies Downeast. Afternoon high temperatures will range from the upper 30s to around 40 north, to the upper 40s to around 50 Downeast. Have updated the forecast to adjust for current conditions along with afternoon temperatures and clouds.
Previous Discussion... The high centered in northern Quebec dominates though the period with below normal temperatures and low dew points. Light winds continue through the period. May be enough moisture near 800mb for some afternoon cumulus. 925/850mb temps look similar to yesterday, leading to forecast highs about the same as yesterday given ample sunshine. For tonight, expect good radiational cooling in the north with lows in the teens and maybe end single digits for the North s. Further south, some mid level clouds arrive during the night and will cap lows in the mid to upper 20s.
Short Term - Thursday Through Friday Night
Major storm setting up w/a umber of impacts to deal with. Low pressure is forecast to lift up across southern Quebec on Thursday while a secondary low develops near VT/NH border and then lifts to the ne and intensifies. High pressure to the ne will provide colder air draining in from the n. A strong ese fetch will allow for deep moisture transport to be pulled in from the Atlantic ocean. Precip will break out the swarning portion of the CWA and then overspreads the rest of the region during the day. Temps will cold enough at the start for snow across the southern areas, but warmer air trying to push in from the s to change snow to rain. The 00Z GFS shifted its track bringing the low further to the n and hence brings the warmer air as far n as Houlton and Millinocket, meaning a changeover to rain. The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and Canadian Global are colder as they both show the low tracking along the Maine coast and the lifting across central Washington County. The 00Z NAM was similar, but shows a coastal front setting up and keeps the warmer air along the immediate coast, which would allow precipitation to be in the form of snow further to the s including the Bangor region. Decided to lean closer to a blend of the NAM/Canadian and ECWMF which keeps the warmer along the Downeast region with any snow changing to rain.
For the Downeast region including the coast, rain could be heavy at times w/a strong ese jet of 55-60 kts. Areas such as Bangor and Old Town will see some heavy snowfall with some rain mixing during the afternoon. Further n, all snow is expected and it will pick up in intensity as the low intensifies later Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. There could be some heavy snowfall rates especially Thursday night w/1-2" per hour possible. Blowing snow will be another concern as ENE winds increase. Travel will become hazardous Thursday night into Friday. Power outages are possible w/the heavy wet snow. The Winter Storm Watch will remains in place for Northern Maine and the Maine Central Highlands. Looking for a total snowfall of 8-12 inches with some higher totals close to 15 inches possible in the higher terrain such as Piscataquis County and up into NW Aroostook Count. One thing to note, if the colder air hangs in across the Bangor region, more snow could accumulate by Friday morning reaching a possible 6-10 inch range. This will need to be monitored. The storm will exit through New Brunswick w/colder air sweeping back in on N winds on Friday w/snow transitioning to snow showers by Friday evening.
Another item to note is the strong ese jet of 55-60 kts coming into the coastal region. Winds align up through 5k ft w/gust potential of 55-60 mph. These strong winds will lead to power outages. A High Wind Watch was issued for the coast. Strong winds and a decent surge could lead to some coastal flooding at the time of high tide. See the coastal flood section below for further details.
Long Term - Saturday Through Tuesday
A chilly day on Saturday w/temps below normal for April. There will be some melting w/a NW breeze of 10-20 mph. Milder on Easter Sunday w/daytime temps climbing back to near normal w/more melting taking place. This melting will add runoff to the river and streams that are open. The latest suite of the long range guidance is showing another warmer system expected to affect the region Monday into early Tuesday. The 00Z GFS is weaker w/the system and shows potential for snow at the start on Monday and changing over to rain and continuing into early Tuesday. The ECMWF and Canadian along w/a number of their individual ensemble members support a warmer solution and bring a heavy dose of rainfall to the region. This rainfall, milder temps and melting snowpack could lead to rapid rises on rivers and streams with some possibly apchg bankfull. This is still a ways out and there is time to assess this w/the later model runs.
Near Term: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels this afternoon through tonight.
Short Term: Gale Watch remains for the intra-coastal zone Thursday afternoon into Friday. A Storm Watch is now in effect for the outer zones from Thursday afternoon into Friday morning for winds gusting to 50 kts. ESE winds are expected to increase to 25-35 kt later Thursday afternoon and increase further Thursday night due to the strong ESE jet of 55-60 kts. Seas will respond accordingly reaching 10-12 feet by Friday morning.
For Friday into Friday Night...NNW winds of 25-35 kt expected w/some higher gusts possible on Friday. Seas 10-12 ft will start to subside as the offshore wind takes hold. Winds are forecast to drop off Friday night to 20-25 kt.
Saturday into Sunday...NW winds on Saturday at 15 kt w/gusts to 20 kt. Seas are expected to be down to 3-4 ft. Winds/seas will continue to drop off Saturday night into Sunday as high pres builds over the waters.
Continuing to focus on ice jams on the Aroostook and Saint John rivers. Cooler temperatures and low dew points have slowed melting into the rivers for now, but not to the point where ice jams are likely to lock in place. An ice jam remains in place on the Aroostook River in Fort Fairfield. Local town officials reported that minor flooding was occurring at the North Caribou and Grimes Roads as well as near the boat landing near Riverside road. An ice jam has also caused water to spread over Washburn Road, route 164 in Crouseville.
The combination of melting snow and rainfall on Monday will pose a significant hydro risk with river levels already elevated.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
The coincidence of the highest astronomical tide of the year to date and a major Nor'easter creates a very credible threat for coastal flooding near the high tide early Friday morning. The high tide will be around 1247AM. There's still some uncertainty on the exact storm track and timing such that slight variations could produce large impacts on coastal flooding. At this time, the strong southerly surge coinciding with high tide is most likely for Washington County as winds will be shifting offshore further west...reducing the surge potential and maybe even causing a seiche. As a result, Machias and points eastward to Lubec and Eastport are most likely to have significant impacts such as road inundation and flooding in low-lying areas. Have issued a Coastal Flood Watch for the Fridayam tide in Washington County. A Coastal Flood Advisory may still be needed for Hancock County...and possibly more if the storm slows its eastward progress. Leaning towards ETSS output for surge at this point.
NOAA Caribou ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
ME...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon for MEZ001>006-010-011-031-032. High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through late Thursday night for MEZ029-030. Coastal Flood Watch from Thursday evening through late Thursday night for MEZ030. MARINE...Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon for ANZ052. Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night for ANZ050-051.