Eastport ME to Schoodic Point ME out 25 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Scattered Showers Until Early Morning, Then Rain Likely Late. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm After Midnight.|
|Tue...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Scattered Showers In The Morning With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Tue Night...W Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Nw 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening.|
|Wed...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 5 Ft.|
|Wed Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Thu...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Thu Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Fri...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning.|
|Sat...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon And Evening, Then Becoming Nw After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Caribou ME
120pm EDT Monday September 23 2019
Low pressure will approach the area this afternoon and slowly cross the state Tuesday. High pressure will build over the area Wednesday night. A cold front will approach and cross the area on Thursday followed by high pressure through the end of the week.
.NEAR TERM Through Tonight
115 PMRadar was showing some embedded convection. Lightning detection slow to pick up and strikes. Given the enhanced reflectivity aloft, decided to add a mention of tstms into early afternoon which could dump heavy rainfall. Slight adjustments were made to the precipitation chances to bring things to the current situation. Radar trend showing large area of activity moving ene and should be into New Brunswick by 2-3 pm w/just some scattered activity. The cold front has dropped s into Caribou as the winds have turned around the NW and a significant cooldown to the mid/upper 60s. This morning, temps were in the low/mid 70s. Further s, satl imagery showed clouds hanging on which could dampen tstm potential. Decided to keep tstms in for the central areas for now for continuity, but will continue to monitor.
Previous Discussion... Strong swrly flow occurring across the CWA early this morning with surface temps rising across northern Aroostook to welcome the autumnal equinox. CAR rose from 72F at 02z to 75F at 05z, likely due to 40-50 LLJ mixing down warm temps fm aloft. Thus far CAR has reached a min of 72F during the overnight hrs. Aftn highs for northern Aroostook will likely be right around the same values, in the lwr 70s, with temps falling by mid- afternoon.
Surface low located along the southern Ontario/Quebec border with frontal boundary located to the north of the St. Lawrence as of 08z. Showers are mvg to the northeast along bndry but also dropping south toward the region attm but hv delayed probability of precipitation by an addn'l 1-2 hrs this morning as best chance of showers looks to mv into the North s between 10z- 12z. Greatest 3-hr pressure falls exist over the Gulf of St. Lawrence with surface low likely tracking east this mrng.
Shower chances will increase as low approaches fm Canada. Low pressure looks to cross the state this evening and tonight with nrly winds across the north and southerly winds over Downeast. Still some disparity in guidance with regard to exact mvmnt of low tonight and this will likely make the difference with location of best chance for thunder as well as potentially heavy rainfall. For now hv indicated that 24-hr Quantitative Precipitation Forecast amnts look to range fm 0.50 inches along the coast to near 1 inch over eastern Aroostook but this is dependent on mvmnt of low and assoc bndry. This also does not take into account the dvlpmnt of tstms thru the period with PW values (Precipitable Water values) on the order of 1.5-1.75 inches today and tonight.
Short Term - Tuesday Through Wednesday Night
Closed low aloft will broaden over New England Tuesday. Much of the stronger divergence aloft will move over New Brunswick by mid to late morning, along with it, the better lift for moderate rain. Still expect showers to be ongoing for better part of the day with elevated instability and PWATs (Precipitable Waters) over 1 inch. Afternoon thunder still possible, mainly Downeast. Forecast surface low development appears weaker, and window of time to take advantage of surface based instability is slim. Mid-level lapse rates will be sufficient as cold air moves in aloft, but low levels will struggle to warm with cloud cover and slowing surface winds under surface low. Still a chance for small line of thundershowers to develop Tues afternoon Downeast and dissipate near the coast.
Low will slowly pivot into the Canadian Maritimes Wednesday with lingering showers Tuesday night in the north. Dry air w/ high pressure filters in Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Long Term - Thursday Through Sunday
Dry conditions will be cut short by approaching cold front Thursday. Chances of rain increase across the north late morning into the afternoon, reaching Downeast in the evening. Strong high pressure across the Ohio Valley begins to track into southern New England Thursday night, keeping this rainy system progressive. With high pressure residing over the area Friday, the sun will make an appearance across most of the forecast area before another disturbance approaches Saturday.
Temperatures through the period will be slightly above average with jet just to our north.
Near Term: An SCA (Small Craft Advisory) will continue through tonight as seas rise to 4 to 7 feet over the outer waters. Winds may approach 25 kts today.
Short Term: Winds Monday night will slacken as low pressure moves overhead, picking back up Wednesday with gusts near 15kts. Waves will remain 4-5 feet through Thursday and Friday.
NOAA Caribou ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 5am EDT Tuesday for ANZ050-051.