Eastport ME to Schoodic Point ME out 25 NM Marine Forecast
|This Afternoon...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 7 To 10 Ft.|
|Tonight...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft.|
|Sat...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Sat Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Sun...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sun Night...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.|
|Mon...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 7 To 10 Ft, Subsiding To 5 To 8 Ft After Midnight. A Chance Of Rain In The Morning, Then Rain Likely.|
|Tue...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W In The Afternoon And Evening, Then Becoming N After Midnight. Seas 4 To 7 Ft, Subsiding To 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Morning. A Chance Of Showers Through The Night.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1107am EST Fri Nov 15 2019
A strong cold front cross the area this evening. High pressure will build in from the west on Saturday and crest over the area Sunday. Low pressure will slide south of the region Monday into Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM Through Tonight
11:10am Update: Snow shower coverage was increased to low likely probability of precipitation across the north with some pre-frontal bands producing patchy light snow. Temps remain on track.
Previous discussion: Snow squalls possible late this afternoon into this evening across far northern Maine... The FA will be in the "warm" sector today ahead of an arctic cold front. A mild southwest flow ahead of the front will cause temperatures to be 10 to 15 degrees (F) milder than yesterday, and much closer to average highs for mid-November. Lingering light rain/snow in Washington County will end early this morning. A pre-frontal trough will move across the area this afternoon and will be followed by a strong cold front that will move into northwest Maine by around 4 pm and will sweep off the Downeast coast by around 9 pm. The BTV snow squall parameter from the NAM, RAP, and GFS all indicate a good chance of gusty squalls late this afternoon/early this evening to the north and west of Baxter State Park. Did highlight an area of likely Probability of Precipitation with heavy snow showers in the weather grids for later this afternoon into evening. As the front pushes south into the Downeast Region early in the evening moisture is lacking, but there could still be a scattered to broken line of showers with the front. In the wake of the front, it turns windy and much colder tonight with lows in the single digits far north to teens Downeast, and the wind will produce wind chills to 10 below in the north to near zero along the coast after midnight. Have issued a special weather statement across the northern tier of zones this morning to highlight the risk of snow squalls late in the day with local whiteouts and very dangerous driving conditions.
Short Term - Saturday Through Sunday Night
The abnormally cold air mass behind the cold front is expected to produce record low high temperatures for Saturday as detailed in the climate section of this discussion. Wind chills will remain in the single digits to low teens for much of the area through the day. Wind gusts over 30 mph can be expected. Not expecting much cloud cover in the dry air mass, but can't rule out some stratocu in northern Aroostook in the NW flow. By Saturday night, clear skies and light winds will promote strong radiational cooling. The existing snow cover will also help. Have continued to undercut guidance with subzero readings for numerous locations in Aroostook County and single digits elsewhere. Again, record lows are expected as shown in the climate section. Temperatures will slowly moderate Sunday to the upper 20s and lower 30s with light winds. The more difficult portion of the forecast begins Sunday night as a coastal storm slowly drifts northward with increasing clouds and Probability of Precipitation towards the coast as the night progresses. Have used a model blend to exclude the aggressive 11/00Z NAM. The cold air mass remains in place and have dropped lows in northern zones where clear skies prevail much of the night. Towards Bangor and interior Downeast, there is a risk of freezing rain, but confidence in the early arrival is low and have assigned chance PoPs. Along the coast, warming onshore winds should prevent the risk of freezing precip.
Long Term - Monday Through Thursday
The coastal storm is expected to continue drifting northward Monday in a compact shortwave propagating northward on the backside of an amplifying upper ridge over the Atlantic. Taking a multi-model blend, the low is expected to track southeast of the forecast area and allow the low level cold air to remain locked in place while temperatures rapidly warm aloft. This presents a freezing rain and sleet scenario for Monday night when the bulk of the precipitation is forecast. This frozen precipitation is most likely north of the typical Dexter towards Houlton line while precipitation is more likely to be rain for Bangor and the Downeast region. Milder air spreads across the entire area on Tuesday with highs in the mid 30s to around 40F and melts whatever accumulates Monday night. As a upper trough moves towards the area Wednesday into Thursday, there's a lot of uncertainty on the exact evolution of events and significant model-to-model spread. Have maintained chance Probability of Precipitation and seasonable temperatures. Upper levels cool enough for mention of snow in northern zones Wednesday into Thu.
Near Term: Made some adjustments to the headlines to keep the small craft advisories going today with the gales starting this evening. Although a brief gust to 35 knots is possible in the southwest flow ahead of the arctic cold front, the best chance of gales will occur tonight into Saturday morning in the strong cold air advection in the wake of the front.
Short Term: The Gale Warning will need to be converted to a Small Craft Advisory for Saturday into Saturday night. Advisory-level winds return Sunday night and may reach gale strength Monday into Monday night. Winds and seas will diminish Tuesday into Wednesday.
An Arctic airmass will move in Friday night. In this anomalously cold air mass, expect that temperatures records may fall:
Nov 16th forecast highs Record low maxes Caribou - 22 21, 1943 Bangor - 28 26, 1933 Houlton - 23 24, 2008 Millinocket - 26 24, 2018
Nov 17th forecast lows Record lows Caribou - 2 4, 1943 Bangor - 8 8, 1933 Houlton - -2 7, 1968 Millinocket - 5 11, 1967
NOAA Caribou ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EST this evening for ANZ050>052. Gale Warning from 6pm this evening to 10am EST Saturday for ANZ050>052.