Marine Weather Net

Schoodic Point ME to Stonington ME Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

SUN

W
WINDS
10
KNOTS

SUN NIGHT

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

MON

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ051 Forecast Issued: 638 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: S 4 Ft At 7 Seconds. Isolated Showers And Tstms This Evening. Areas Of Fog. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.
Sun...W Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming Sw In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 7 Seconds. Areas Of Fog In The Morning With Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.
Sun Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Evening. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 7 Seconds. Patchy Fog After Midnight With Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.
Mon...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 7 Seconds. Patchy Fog. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.
Mon Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 8 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers. Patchy Fog In The Evening. Areas Of Fog After Midnight. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.
Tue...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 7 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning. Areas Of Fog In The Morning, Then Patchy Fog In The Afternoon. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.
Tue Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Patchy Fog In The Evening. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.
Wed...Sw Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. Patchy Fog. A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.
Wed Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Showers Likely. Patchy Fog In The Evening. Areas Of Fog After Midnight. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.
Thu...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Patchy Fog In The Morning. Showers Likely, Mainly In The Morning. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.
Thu Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
840pm EDT Sat July 13 2024

Synopsis
An upper level disturbance will cross the region overnight. High pressure will build across the region Sunday. A cold front will begin to approach Tuesday. The front stalls over the region on Wednesday and moves out of the area Thursday.

Near Term - Through Sunday
Update... An upper level disturbance will cross the region through the early morning hours, exiting across the Maritimes late. At the surface, a frontal boundary will slowly move offshore overnight while surface high pressure builds toward the region. Showers/thunderstorms, most numerous across central and Downeast areas, will persist early tonight before ending during the early morning hours. Low level moisture from afternoon/evening rains will help support patchy fog across much of the forecast area overnight. More extensive fog is possible along the Downeast coast. Low temperatures will range from around 60 to the lower 60s north, to the lower to mid 60s Downeast. Have updated to adjust for current conditions along with expected overnight temperatures, clouds and shower/thunderstorm chances.

Previous Discussion... For Sunday, a weak upper level ridge will move in bringing mostly sunny skies and hot temps. In addition, W flow will bring lower dewpoints with the slightly cooler and dry mid level airmass. Temps will be in the upper 80s across the region.

Short Term - Sunday Night Through Tuesday
High pressure and clear skies remain in place Sunday night, but so will the humid air mass. Once again, lows will only drop into the mid 60s for most of the area...a bit warmer than the previous night.

High temperatures on Monday will again climb into the upper 80s with lower 90s expected in southern Penobscot and southern Piscataquis counties. No change in humidity means another day just shy of Heat Advisory criteria for Bangor. The only differences from Sunday will be a cooler day on the coast due to a more onshore flow, and the possibility of afternoon convection in the north. A weak shortwave propagating in a fast northern stream flow would be the culprit to destabilize the atmosphere, but there is little agreement in guidance on the evolution and timing of this feature...possibly because it may involve an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System, a complex of thunderstorms which becomes organized on a scale larger than the individual thunderstorms) that has yet to form. Therefore, confidence remains low and have generally only assigned 15 to 30 percent PoPs for Monday afternoon. Any upstream MCS formation could alter the forecast Monday night into Tuesday.

Upper level ridging starts to break down Tuesday, but not before the most of the area experiences another day in the upper 80s to lower 90s. It may end up as the warmest day of the week, and it is the most likely day for any heat advisories. Our current forecast indicates advisory criteria will be met in south/central Penobscot and southern Piscataquis counties and confidence is increasing. Onshore southerly winds will provide some relief for the Downeast coast. As a vigorous upper trough digs southward towards the Great Lakes region, a lead shortwave and frontal system will approach the area late Tuesday with the potential for afternoon thunderstorms. The risk will be greatest in the northern zones. Deep layer shear will increase during the afternoon and the potential for strong storms is there.

Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Saturday
There are signs of a temporary break in the heat later next week as a fairly strong upper trough digs southward from Canada towards the northeastern US. However, the price for the cool off will be continued heat early next week and the potential for strong thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday.

A cold front tends to hang up over the area Tuesday night into Wednesday as the upper trough continues to dig southward into the Great Lakes region. The stalled front seems likely to become a conduit for strong thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon. Impressive deep layer shear and steep low level lapse rates are two factors that prompt concerns for even more severe potential than Tuesday. The question will be which part of the forecast area is most vulnerable. At this point, the southern half of the CWA (County Warning Area) appears to have the best instability to go with the potent shear. This is the same area that will experience another day with heat indices in excess of 90F.

The front is expected to sweep across the area later Wednesday with a markedly cooler air mass. Dew points back in more comfortable 50s seem likely. High temps will trend back towards seasonable readings for Thursday into Saturday.

Marine
Near Term: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight through Sunday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms early tonight. Areas of fog tonight into Sunday.

Short Term: Fog will be the primary concern until a strong cold front moves through late Wednesday. Thunderstorms will become a slight concern Tuesday evening, and a bigger concern later Wednesday with a strong cold front moving across the waters. Continued to adjust guidance winds and seas downward due to strong low level stability.

NOAA Caribou ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
ME...Beach Hazards Statement from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for MEZ029-030.

Marine
None.