Schoodic Point ME to Stonington ME Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Light Freezing Spray.|
|Fri...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Light Freezing Spray In The Morning.|
|Fri Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Sat...S Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Building To 6 To 9 Ft In The Afternoon. Rain In The Afternoon With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Sat Night...S Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt, Becoming W 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt After Midnight. Seas 9 To 12 Ft, Subsiding To 7 To 10 Ft After Midnight. Rain In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm In The Evening.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming Sw 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 5 To 7 Ft, Subsiding To 4 To 5 Ft In The Afternoon.|
|Sun Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.|
|Mon...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon, Then Becoming Nw 20 To 25 Kt In The Evening, Increasing To 25 To 30 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Building To 7 To 9 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Morning.|
|Tue...Nw Winds 25 To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft, Subsiding To 4 To 6 Ft After Midnight.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1250am EST Fri Feb 26 2021
High pressure will build in from the west this afternoon and tonight, crest over the area Friday, then move east of the region on Saturday. Another low from the upper Great Lakes will cross north of the region Saturday night and over the northern Maritimes Sunday. A cold front will approach the region on Monday.
Near Term - Through Today
12:50AM UPDATE: No major changes to the ongoing forecast. Mainly clear this early morning across the FA with the exception of one streamer coming off the St. Lawrence River. This band of 3,000ft stratocu is stretching from the HUL area back into the North s. Also seeing additional indications via satellite of other areas of streamers potentially forming. Any streamer has the potential to produce light flurries. For now will continue with light flurries across the HUL area into southwest Aroostook county. Expecting these streamers to dry up as the ridge axis pushes closer over the next several hours. Speaking of the ridging that will be the challenge before daybreak. If the ridge can sneak in quicker the winds will relax and could cause a dramatic drop in temperatures thanks to strong radiational cooling. For now expecting the winds to stay up some except in the sheltered valleys of the North s. This means that much of the cold temperatures will be advection cooling not radiational since we aren't decoupling. Adjusted temperatures for the next couple hours based on the current observations and hi-res guidance.
Previous Discussion: High pressure centered to the south of Maine has settled in for the rest of today and tonight. The tightened pressure gradients across the region have been the reason for the gusty winds and blowing snow in the north. The majority of the clouds have already cleared out of the area and will continue to clear into the night. The ample sunshine has allow for some radar indicated convection over Southern Aroostook. Thought these streamers may stick around through the afternoon, little to no accumulation of snow is expected.
Cold air advection and radiational cooling will be the main concern for tonight. 900-850mb temperatures show the coldest temperatures remaining north of the Central Highlands. As winds slowly decrease throughout the night in the north, little mixing and fresh snowpack should allow temperatures to dip to 10 below and some areas in the far North s to around 20 below. For southern areas, radiational cooling from clear skies should allow temps to fall to the single digits with teens along the coast.
By Friday, the high pressure will continue to move into the Gulf of Maine, keeping skies clear and light to moderate W winds across the region. Cold air advection should keep high temperatures at or just below normal for the area.
Short Term - Tonight Through Sunday
For Friday night, the 1036mb high will move swiftly offshore and strong warm advection will occur most of the night. A radiation inversion will form in the evening and steepen all night as the warmer air aloft arrives. Can't rule out a few subzero temps and a lot of single digits in northern zones. The inversion will break quickly Saturday morning as warm advection continues. Clouds will increase with a warm occluded front and precipitation breaks out by late morning into the early afternoon. With a strong southerly low level jet, boundary layer conditions will not support much snow in the southern half of the forecast area, but the colder air will persist in northern zones as a weak secondary low forms in the Gulf of Maine and cuts off the stronger warm advection. In this regard, went against the 25/12Z GFS. Expect a max snowfall of around 3 to 4 inches in northern Aroostook County. Moisture transport is strong, but the system will move across the area very quickly Saturday afternoon and evening. Warm and moist air follows the front and some fog is possible later Saturday night...mostly in southern zones. Low level moisture will persist Sunday morning, but drying southwest winds and subsidence will provide some clearing and highs reaching into the lower 40s for most of the area.
Long Term - Sunday Night Through Thursday
A big push of Arctic air will advance from Canada while moisture southern stream moisture moves from the Gulf of Mexico towards southern New England. At this point, guidance is not phasing the two entities effectively until the Canadian Maritimes, but it's still something to watch. Boundary layer conditions will again be important with higher chances of rain in the southern half of the area and snow more likely in northern Aroostook County. Current guidance would suggest several inches of snow is possible in northern zones, but it could be more if the low forms earlier. The current scenario calls for this rain/snow on Monday and then an Arctic front and upper low combo for Monday night. That combo could produce snow squalls. Very strong winds and cold air advection are expected for Monday night and Tuesday with one of the winter's colder days on tap Tuesday and a possible wind chill advisory. There will a quick recovery Wednesday into Thursday. Still too early to pin down which day or days look better for radiational cooling. The next frontal system appears most likely by Thursday with mixed precip.
Near Term: Winds will remain at SCA (Small Craft Advisory) through the night on the coastal waters as well as over the intra-coastal waters. Seas 4 to 6 feet on the coastal waters and 2 to 4 feet on the intra- coastal. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) will remain through Friday morning, but winds and seas should decrease below criteria by the afternoon.
Short Term: Expect a gale Saturday afternoon and evening and another stronger gale Monday night and Tuesday.
NOAA Caribou ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
ME...Wind Chill Advisory until 7am EST this morning for MEZ001>006- 010.
Small Craft Advisory until 10am EST this morning for ANZ050>052.