Schoodic Point ME to Stonington ME Marine Forecast
|Today...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt Late This Morning And Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Tonight...W Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Thu...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Thu Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Fri...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Fri Night...W Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Sat...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Sun...Ne Winds Around 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Caribou ME
321am EDT Wednesday September 28 2022
A cold front will cross the area today and move off the Downeast coast by this evening. High pressure will build into the region from the west through Saturday. A cold front will cross the area Saturday night and will be followed by high pressure.
Near Term - Through Tonight
The region will remain under an upper through through tonight with a weak cold front to cross the area today. It will be a mostly cloudy day from the Katahdin Region north with scattered showers. South of Katahdin there will be more sunshine today after early morning fog. Temperatures will be a bit cooler today ranging from around 60 degrees in the Saint John Valley to the mid to upper 60s in Bangor and interior Downeast.
Mainly clear Downeast tonight and partly cloudy north. High pressure will be centered well west of the area across the central and western Great Lakes which will keep the boundary layer mixed and prevent lows from dropping below the 40s.
Short Term - Thursday Through Friday
Thursday... Strongly positively tilted upper level trough axis crosses the area on Thursday. Perhaps just enough instability for an isolated shower, but nothing more. Airmass will be rather cool on Thursday with highs only in the mid 50s north and low 60s Downeast. Some stratocumulus in the slightly unstable NW flow will allow for partly cloudy skies.
Thursday Night... Subsidence increases as upper level ridging and surface high pressure build in, and daytime cumulus quickly dissipate as we lose the sun. The surface high will be centered off to our SW in VT/upstate NY. Though there will be a bit of a pressure gradient still, think that most areas will decouple, making for a threat of frost over about the northern 2/3 of the area. Highlighted the threat in the HWO. Patchy valley fog a possibility as well.
Friday... More subsidence and warming of the airmass for Friday. Subsidence may even be enough to prevent daytime cumulus development for the most part. High temperatures in the low to mid 60s, making for a nice fall day.
Models... Models are in very good agreement through Friday. Main item of uncertainty is how much decoupling can occur Thursday night. There will still be somewhat of a pressure gradient over the area. Some more exposed areas/hills may not decouple, but think that most valley spots should decouple enough for temps to cool off fairly well.
Long Term - Friday Night Through Tuesday
Quiet night Friday night, though not as cool as Thursday night.
Cold front approaches on Saturday from the north and moves into Northern Maine in the afternoon or early evening. With the approach of the front, Saturday will be the warmest day, with highs in the mid to upper 60s, and possibly a few places topping 70. With a trajectory straight from the north, the cold front won't have an opportunity to tap into any moisture from the south, and only expect a band of clouds near the front with a slight chance of showers Saturday night. Cold front moves to the coast by late Saturday night. Though the front will be moisture starved, it will feature a pretty chilly airmass behind it and good cold advection. Went on the cool side of guidance for highs Sunday, with highs only in the low 50s in the north and mid to upper 50s Downeast, despite a good amount of sun.
Sunday night has a good threat for frost areawide, and some places dropping below freezing. Cool Canadian high pressure looks to move overhead, allowing for decoupling of an already chilly airmass. Skies also looking clear/mostly clear. Highlighted the threat of frost in HWO.
Saturday night's cold front and the following Canadian high pressure will prevent any remnants of Ian from making it this far north.
High pressure on Monday with quiet weather and temperatures a bit warmer than Sunday. Low confidence in evolution of the weather pattern after Monday.
Models... Models are in very good agreement through Monday, then quickly fall apart Tuesday into Wednesday. Timing of the cold front late Saturday into Saturday night is highly confident, with only about 3-6 hours of uncertainty from the ensembles. Also confident in very little precipitation with the front. Additionally, remarkably good model agreement on cool Canadian high pressure being near or overhead Sunday night, leading to confidence in a frosty night. After Monday, some models/ensembles bring ridging, while others bring troughing. Basically, low confidence on whether our streak of drier weather persists or ends into midweek.
Near Term: The wind and seas will remain below small craft advisory levels through tonight. Seas 3 to 4 ft on the coastal waters and 2 to 3 ft on the intra-coastal waters.
Short Term: Conditions generally remaining below small craft levels Thursday into the weekend, with little threat of fog. Winds from the north late Saturday night into Sunday morning could get near small craft levels just behind a cold front.
NOAA Caribou ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories