Schoodic Point ME to Stonington ME Marine Forecast
|Today...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S With Gusts Up To 20 Kt Late This Morning, Then Becoming Sw With Gusts Up To 25 Kt This Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Isolated Showers This Afternoon.|
|Tonight...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Sw 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Building To 6 To 8 Ft After Midnight. Scattered Showers In The Evening, Then Rain Likely After Midnight With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Fri...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Scattered Showers In The Morning.|
|Fri Night...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming Nw 25 To 30 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft.|
|Sat...Nw Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt, Diminishing To Around 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 7 Ft, Subsiding To 3 To 5 Ft In The Afternoon.|
|Sat Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Sun...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Ne 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Building To 6 To 9 Ft After Midnight. A Chance Of Rain After Midnight.|
|Mon...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 8 To 11 Ft, Subsiding To 6 To 9 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Caribou ME
607am EST Thu Nov 14 2019
High pressure will move east of the region today. A strong cold front will cross the area Friday evening and will be followed by high pressure which will build into the region Saturday and Sunday. Low pressure will pass south of the area Monday.
.NEAR TERM Through Tonight
6:07am Update: A record cold start to the day in many areas. High clouds are seen on satellite streaming across the FA. Lower clouds are noted upstream, and clouds will increase and lower during the day. Scattered snow showers are expected this afternoon with rain or snow showers along the coast. Updated with the past few hours of observed data and made some minor adjustments based on the latest observations and satellite pictures.
Previous discussion: High pressure centered across southern Maine early this morning will move east today and a weak disturbance will move east out of Quebec and combine with weak warm air advection to produce clouds and a few snow showers today, mainly this afternoon with the best chance across the northern half of the FA. After a very cold start, the increase in clouds will keep temperatures on the cold side of average with highs in the low to mid 20s across far northern portions of the FA to around 30F in Bangor and in the upper 30s along the coast. For tonight, it will be partly to mostly cloudy with flurries possible in the north. A weak disturbance along a surface trough will likely produce a period of snow or mixed rain and snow across the southeast corner of the FA across mainly Washington County. Certainly can't rule out an inch or two of snow, but confidence remains on the low side due to a combination of precipitation type issues and uncertainty as to how much Quantitative Precipitation Forecast falls. For now will go with a rain/snow mix and around an inch of snow. Clouds and a south flow will keep temperatures from falling off much from the afternoon highs.
Short Term - Friday Through Saturday
On Friday the area will be in the warm sector ahead of a very strong arctic cold front that will be pushing across Quebec and to a position along the western Maine/Quebec border at 00z Saturday. There could be line of snow showers and possible squalls in the north and west with a pre-frontal trough, but the main action is expected during the evening with the cold front. The BTV snow squall parameter is looking very favorable for squalls during the evening, that would likely weaken as they push south and east toward the Down East Region. The wind direction shifting into the northwest in the wake of the front may continue to allow for some streamers to push off the Saint Lawrence River and into northern areas during the late evening and perhaps even past midnight. Saturday will be a windy and very cold day with some flurries or isolated snow showers possible across the far north. Temperatures may not get out of the teens across the western Mountains with low to mid 20s across the Crown and upper 20s to low 30s along the coast.
Long Term - Saturday Night Through Wednesday
High pressure settles into the area Sat night and with combination of a clear sky and light/calm wind will allow for lows to likely drop to 10 to 15 below in the sheltered northwest valley with a decent chance that Caribou could get down to zero. The models are not nearly cold enough given the set up and the model certainty tool shows this well with little difference between the 10th and 50th percentiles. High pressure will remain across the region Sunday with sunshine and light wind, but it will be a cold day with highs in the mid 20s north to the mid 30s in the Bangor/Downeast regions. Low pressure passing south of the region Monday will likely bring an increase in clouds, especially across the Down East region and a little light rain or wet snow is possible depending on how close the low comes to our region, which varies between the models and model ensembles. An upper trough is expected to move out of the Great Lakes and into New England Tuesday into Wednesday. The models differ on surface low development ahead of the trough and whether there is any phasing of the northern and southern branches of the jet. Forecast confidence remains low, although there is the potential for some rain or snow during this time, with rain more favored Down East and snow or a snow/rain mix across the north.
Near Term: The wind will increase out of the southwest this afternoon with small craft conditions expected by late in the day and into tonight. A small craft advisory has been issued.
Short Term: Small craft advisory conditions will likely continue into Friday evening with gales possible in the wake of a strong cold front Friday night into Saturday morning. Once the gales come down there will likely be a period of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level wind for several hours before things settle down Saturday night and Sunday as strong high pressure builds over the waters. Collaborated with the other New England offices on holding off on a gale watch for now.
Record lows set this morning, 11/14:
Caribou: +3F, old record +4F in 1986 Houlton: -2F, old record zero in 1954 Bangor: +8F, old record 11F in 1986.
NOAA Caribou ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory from 4pm this afternoon to 6pm EST Friday for ANZ050>052.