Schoodic Point ME to Stonington ME Marine Forecast
|Today...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt Late This Morning And Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Tonight...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Sun...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
|Sun Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Mon...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft, Building To 4 Ft In The Afternoon.|
|Mon Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Tue...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Wed...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 7 Ft, Building To 7 To 10 Ft After Midnight. A Chance Of Rain In The Evening. Rain And Snow Likely After Midnight With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Caribou ME
429am EST Sat Feb 22 2020
High pressure will move south of the region through the weekend. A cold front will cross the area on Monday. High pressure will build north of the region Tuesday. Low pressure will approach from the southwest Tuesday night through Wednesday.
Near Term - Through Sunday Night
High pressure building into the southeastern US combined with low pressure tracking well to our north will maintain a west southwesterly flow of milder air today with high temperatures nudging above freezing across most of the region. A bit of mid and upper level moisture wrapping around the low to our north combined with a weak trough in the upper levels will bring partial cloudiness across the north while Downeast remains mostly sunny. The west southwesterly breeze and mild air will bring a mild night than recent nigheights tonight with lows only in the mid to upper teens over the area. High pressure to our south, weak longwave ridging aloft and a continued southwesterly flow of mild air will bring an even milder day Sunday as temps reach the upper 30s to near 40 over most of the area. The north will have some patchy clouds from moisture working along a frontal boundary well north of the area while Downeast, closer to the center of the high, will be mostly sunny. Low pressure Sunday night will track well northwest of the area through central Canada maintaining a southwesterly flow of mild air with lows close to 20 under a clear to partly cloudy sky. A few more clouds will be over the north, closer to the low, than Downeast where the sky will continue mostly clear.
Short Term - Monday Through Tuesday
Mild temps to continue for this term. A warm front is forecast to lift across the region on Monday followed by a cold front later Monday afternoon into Monday evening. warm air advection associated w/the warm front will bring milder air into the region. 925MB temps look like they will go above 0C all the way to the Northern Maine- Canadian border on Monday. The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) has been consistent w/this warming. The GFS looks too cool. The caveat to the warming will be that there will be some clouds around especially across the n and w. Further s, clouds should break up w/the SSW winds leading to warmer temps. Stayed close to the daycrew's thinking of around 40 degrees across the northern and western areas w/mid 40s for the central and downeast areas. Some weak mid level forcing along w/some llevel convergence could lead to some light precipitation out ahead of the warm front. The best chance for the light precipitation will be across the far northern and nw areas. Decided to keep 20% chance for light rain/snow showers. GFS soundings hint that the precipitation could even be more of a stratiform precipitation in the form of drizzle, but for now will stay w/the showery nature of the precip.
The cold front is slated to the slide across the region later Monday afternoon and reach the coast by Monday night. Little if any precipitation is noted w/the front as moisture is lacking in the 850-700mb layer. Just a wind shift and some cooler temps to accompany the front. The GFS and ECMWF along w/a number of their respective ensembles support this solution. High pressure in Central Canada is forecast to begin ridging across the state on Tuesday. This will provide the region w/at least partly sunny conditions and continued mild temps.
Long Term - Monday Night Through Saturday
High pressure ridging in from central Canada will keep things dry Tuesday night into Wednesday. The latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF and Canadian have backed off on the timing of precipitation w/the apchg low pressure system from the deep south. The ECMWF shows some light precipitation trying to set up southern areas from SW Piscataquis County to the coast on Wednesday. A light ENE wind in the blyr w/se winds above 3k ft could allow for some clouds and the potential for some overrunning precip, mainly in the form of drizzle. The GFS and a number of the individual ensemble members keep it dry. The Canadian guidance hints at some light precipitation along the coast and back toward GYX's CWA. Decided on a blend and went w/20% chance for some drizzle or light rain showers. A tad cooler, but still above normal for Wednesday w/daytime temps in the 30s.
A change looks to come Wednesday into Thursday as low pressure lifts up from the TN Valley spreading precipitation northward. Colder air will filter down across the region from the n Wednesday night w/overnight temps dropping into the teens across northern 1/2 of the CWA and low to mid 20s central and downeast. The latest suite of the long range guidance show a secondary low developing near NJ Wednesday night and then lifting ne across eastern Maine on Thursday. This storm has potential for bring a significant amount of precipitation to the state of Maine. Given the position of the high to the north and low pressure lifting across the Maine coast presents a good setup w/precipitation in the form of snow across northern and western areas and a mixed bag to the south. The track of the coastal low will be key in regards to precipitation type and amounts Thursday into Thursday evening. This system looks like it will be a fast moving system w/precipitation winding down by Thursday night. There is still some uncertainties in regards to the track of the low, precipitation amounts and temperature profile. For now, decided to go w/70% probability of precipitation as it leaned w/snow across the northern and central areas and snow/rain for the Bangor region to the coast. Would like to see a better consensus w/the guidance before trying to nail down precipitation types. Colder on Friday and unsettled w/chance for snow showers.
NEAR TERM: A SCA (Small Craft Advisory) will be up early this morning for SW winds gusting up to 30 kt. Otherwise, winds and seas will be below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) later this morning through Monday night.
Short Term: No headlines expected Monday into Tuesday. SW winds 10 kts on Monday will become NNE Monday night into Tuesday at 10 kts. Seas during this time frame will be 2-3 ft.
Tuesday night into Wednesday...NE winds are expected to increase to sustained 10-15 kt w/gusts in the lower 20s. Seas are expected to gradually build to 5-6 ft.
NOAA Caribou ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 10am EST this morning for ANZ050>052.