Schoodic Point ME to Stonington ME Marine Forecast
|Overnight...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Thu...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Thu Night...Ne Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
|Fri...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming S 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Fri Night...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft. Showers Likely After Midnight.|
|Sat...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 5 To 8 Ft, Subsiding To 4 To 5 Ft In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning.|
|Sat Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Subsiding To 2 Ft After Midnight.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Mon...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming E 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Caribou ME
958pm EDT Wednesday September 19 2018
Synopsis: High pressure will continue to build in from the northwest overnight and crest over the area Thursday into Thursday evening. Strong low pressure will track northwest of the area Friday followed by a cold front Friday night.
Near Term - Through Thursday
940pm Update: Again, not much in the way to changes from the prior forecast update. However, we did chg forecast ovrngt lows by raising them by 1 to 3 deg F mostly over Northern and Cntrl areas based on slow obsvd surface temp fall rate trends thru mid eve. Did not want to raise lows to much though, since llevel dry air from the NE appears to be slowly advctg SW into the Region. This has resulted in some fragmentation of SC cld cvr, spcly the lowest clgs.
Orgnl Disc: Cool high pressure will continue to build in from the northwest tonight. The chilly air in the boundary layer combined with warm, moist ground will result in a layer of stratus clouds remaining over much of the region overnight. The stratus will linger into Thursday morning, especially over the north. As high pressure crests over the region later in the day and an upper level ridge builds in ahead of the next system, some modification in mid level temps may allow clouds to break up a bit in the afternoon. Temperatures will be cool tonight but are not expected to drop to freezing with the cloud cover. Highs Thursday will be close to 60 north and the low 60s Downeast
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... On Thursday night, a 1028mb surface high will be strengthening to the east of the area as an upper ridge crests over the area later in the night. Have lowered temperatures to the upper 30s to lower 40s, but expect high clouds to increase later in the night...especially after the upper ridge axis crosses. As a result, do not have high confidence in frost issues. Winds will start light early Friday morning, but will increase dramatically by late morning as powerful low pressure in Quebec moves north of the region. All guidance shows very strong H925-H850 winds increasing through the day ahead of the cold front that will cross Friday night. H850 winds may reach 60 to 70 kts. The key is the mixing depth. Precipitation would reduce mixing, but have cut back Quantitative Precipitation Forecast forecasts with the warm front on Friday in line with the GFS. Without precip, strong winds can continue to mix up to the frontal inversion Friday afternoon through the time of frontal passage. Gusts over 50 mph at times are possible. With leaves on the trees, gusts over 35 mph usually cause problems. As a result, power outages are a big concern for Friday afternoon and night. A High Wind Watch will be issued for northern zones where confidence is highest. Later Friday afternoon into the evening, elevated instability increases with an H850 thermal ridge and have added a chance of thunderstorms with gusty winds. The cold front itself will cross the area later in the night and will certainly involve strong winds mixing to the surface on the order of 40 to 50 mph for many locations. It may be one of those situations that requires severe thunderstorm products for squall lines...even without thunder. Temperatures will rise through the night ahead of the front and fall sharply with the front. Friday's high will be well after sunset. Saturday will continue to feature strong gusty northwest winds hitting 35 mph, but these winds will die off in the afternoon as high pressure builds and skies clear across the entire area
Long Term - Saturday Night Through Wednesday
High pressure builds Saturday night. With the cold air in place, frost will be a concern...mostly in the northern half of the area. A reinforcing cold front arrives later Saturday night or Sunday morning and will bring the coldest air of the season. A hard freeze seems likely at this point with a big 1035mb high building directly over the area overnight. Have introduced mention of frost in the forecast for Sunday night. Monday will remain chilly with highs in the 50s , but skies will be clear with little wind. Another night of frost is a threat Monday night. The question will be whether how much the upper ridge amplifies along the east coast on Tuesday. The 19/12Z GFS may be too fast due to potential blocking in the Atlantic. Once this ridge finally moves east, a more active pattern emerges for mid to late next week as a deep upper trough digs over the Midwestern US. This will bring increasing pops, temperatures and dew points Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Near Term: Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory today and tonight. However, a few gusts from the northeast may reach 25 kt over the offshore waters tonight. Winds will diminish on Thursday as the high builds over.
Short Term: The strongest SCA...and potentially a gale Friday night...emerges for Friday afternoon into Saturday. In coordination with GYX, will hold off on headlines for now. Winds and seas will abate from Saturday morning until increasing again later Tuesday next week
NOAA Caribou ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
ME...High Wind Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for MEZ001>006. MARINE...None