Marine Weather Net

Schoodic Point ME to Stonington ME Marine Forecast


TODAY

NW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

S
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

FRI

SW
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

FRI NIGHT

W
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ051 Forecast Issued: 326 AM EST Thu Feb 09 2023

GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
Today...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt Late This Morning, Then Becoming S This Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Rain With A Slight Chance Of Snow Late.
Tonight...S Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Building To 5 To 7 Ft After Midnight. Rain. Patchy Fog After Midnight. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.
Fri...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 6 To 8 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Morning With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.
Fri Night...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 35 Kt In The Evening, Becoming Nw 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 5 To 7 Ft.
Sat...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.
Sat Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Subsiding To 2 To 3 Ft After Midnight.
Sun...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Ne After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.
Mon...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming N 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1231am EST Thu Feb 9 2023

Synopsis
High pressure will cross the region today. Low pressure from the Midwest will approach tonight and moving across the area on Friday. High pressure will then build in from the west Saturday and Sunday.

Near Term - Through Today
1230 am Quick update to ingest latest temps and dewpoints into forecast but no significant changes needed with this late night update.

Prev Disc: A 1026mb high pressure settling over the area and should enable a steep and shallow inversion by daybreak. Expect lows to drop off towards minus 10F in the North s and below zero for most of northern Aroostook County. This is where H925 temps drop off towards minus 15C by late tonight. Far milder low temps near 20F are anticipated along the coast.

The high crests over the area Thursday and slowly moves east later in the day. Under sunny skies, temperatures will recover to readings just above normal. High clouds will thicken and lower in the afternoon as a warm front lifts northwards towards the CWA.

Short Term - Tonight Through Saturday
Another Wintry Mix Expected to Impact Travel... Models..Decent agreement today between the Canadian, ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and GFS (Global Forecast System) operational runs at 12z along with their ensemble members. In addition Hi-Res CAMS have a decent agreement on this warm air overrunning event with low tracks. This is very favorable but what has changed is a trend towards more liquid Quantitative Precipitation Forecast in this event in response to greater push of warm air conveyor belt of PWATs (Precipitable Waters) up along the Atlantic seacoast. Lastly, the secondary cyclogenesis is likely to develop over Maine and track across the Highlands into Aroostook County. This combined with 500mb shortwave trends have taken the parent low from north of Montreal towards the St. John Valley with decent moisture. Lastly, there remains some uncertainty on a very decent thump of precipitation due to 700mb forcing and some enhanced low-level FGEN forcing especially across the St. John Valley into Northeast Aroostook County. Overall, models are in better agreement and given the agreement have opted to hoist Winter Weather Headlines and those details are below... Thurs Night expect a 500mb trough to tile negatively over the Great Lakes allowing for an area of upper level divergence aloft to enhance surface cyclone over the Eastern Great Lakes region lifting into Ontario. This will place Maine in the perfect spot for warm air advection to pump in aloft around 850-770mb based on the latest modeled soundings. As PWATs (Precipitable Waters) increase and precipitation develops from southwest to northeast Thursday evening expect intially snow to develop with the coast quickly changing to rain. The snow may be moderate at times given how much liquid will be pushing in and enhanced by the S-SE onshore flow. Cold air damming thanks to a 1028mb high over the Quebec / Newfoundland border will allow for cold air to pump down over much of the northern 1/2 of the zones through the night. By midnight expecting the warm air to force coastal areas to all rain and some fog with areas that have snowpack. Across the Bangor area into interior Downeast expecting rain by Midnight to 2am with patchy fog as well. Across the Moosehead Region into Millinocket expecting at this time a wintry mix of Snow, Sleet and Freezing Rain to develop with the warm nose descending to 850mb. Across the north with 700mb enhancement and low-level FGEN forcing cannot rule out a period of moderate to perhaps heavy snow with a period of cold and very moist DGZ producing great snowflakes with ratios 12-14:1 for at least several hours before the warm air aloft ruins the ratios. Opted to not add blowing snow as SE winds increase to 20-25mph gusts because of the ratios becoming poor and snow turning wet consistency.

By daybreak Friday expecting the new low tracking through Maine so precipitation will be taper as the dry slot moves into southern zones. Rain will be tapering to showers across Bangor to the coast with some patchy fog. Across the Baxter region extending back to Quebec and east to east-central Aroostook county expecting a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain. That mix area will push north into Caribou, Madawaska Lake to Connor to Hamlin. North and west of here expecting the ptype to stay all snow in the far North s and St. John Valley but cannot rule out some mixing which is part of the uncertainty. By later in the day expecting precipitation to taper to showers across the north. A look at temperatures expecting low to mid 30s across the north, upper 30s to around 40F across the northern Highlands and mid to upper 40s in southern zones including Bangor. By late day the temperatures will begin falling as cold air advection develops. Temperatures will quickly fall below freezing and untreated surfaces may become slippery due to snowmelt and rainfall. Winds will shift westerly and gusts may even approach wind headlines across the Moosehead Region into portions of the North s due to upslope on the Longfellow Mtns.

W-NW winds will slowly weaken overnight as the pressure gradient weakens. Cold air advection will cause temperatures to fall back into the low teens across the north and low to mid 20s south.

Accumulations...Snowfall will be 1-3 inches across the southern Downeast zones into Bangor. The Central highlands into the Baxter region will feature 2-5 inches. 4-8 inches across the north including Caribou and St. John Valley. It is possible snow totals exceed the 8 inch mark in portions of the St. John Valley. Sleet accumulations 0.1-0.3 inches are possible especially across the north where mixing occurs and a deeper low-level cold pocket. Ice accumulations of a trace to a tenth of an inch possible across the Central Highlands into the North with maybe up to 0.15" possible in some spots. Given, the totals have opted to hoist Winter Weather Advisories in 2 tiers across the northern 1/2 of the CWA. Confidence in exceeding 8 inches across the far north is less than 50 percent over less than 50 percent of the zones so did not go with warning here. It is possible the far north of Aroostook may make warning criteria so always an option to upgrade later.

Long Term - Saturday Night Through Wednesday
Saturday into Sunday will feature a double barrel high pressure pushing overhead the area with just some County snow showers Saturday AM. Saturday and Sunday look good with partly to mostly sunny skies as temperatures warm through the weekend. Highs on Saturday in the upper teens to low 20s north with upper 20s to low 30s south. Sunday will feature winds shifting SW so expect highs around freezing north and upper 30s south. Sat Night will feature calm winds with the high moving overhead so expect a really good raditional cooling night. Sunam in the single digits to 10F across the northern 2/3rd of the CWA (County Warning Area) and teens to 20F along the Downeast coast. Mon-Tuesday models continue to show a coastal low tracking well enough south of the area perhaps only causing an increase in cloud cover thanks to a strong high to our north. Temperatures remaining above normal with lows in the low teens north and around 20F south, highs will be around 32F across the north and around 40F south. By Wednesday a warm front lifts north as a strong high pressure moves over the Mid- Atlantic states. Temperatures across the area will be above freezing during the day with mid to upper 30s possible north, mid 40s south.

Marine
Near Term: After a bit of a llevel pressure surge this Eve, winds and seas will diminish below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds by LateTonight:
d cont to dmnsh Thursday as high pressure builds over the waters.

Short Term: Thu Night S-SE winds quickly become SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions with gusts approaching 35kts over the far outer waters. Seas will build 5-7ft across the coastal waters every 7-8sec period. Winds shift W in the afternoon and continue to gust over 25kts. A brief lull in wind gusts overnight before quickly gusting 25-30kts Satam as winds shift NW. Waves will subside 3-5ft and last into Sat with a 6-8sec period. Winds/waves below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) Sat night and stay below into Sun.

NOAA Caribou ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 7pm this evening to 7pm EST Friday for MEZ001-002. Winter Weather Advisory from 7pm this evening to 9am EST Friday for MEZ003>006-010-031.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until 1am EST early this morning for ANZ050-051.