Schoodic Point ME to Stonington ME Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt, Becoming N 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt Late. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Moderate Freezing Spray.|
|Sat...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw Around 5 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Moderate Freezing Spray Until Mid Morning.|
|Sat Night...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft, Building To 3 To 5 Ft After Midnight. Snow, Rain. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.|
|Sun...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Rain In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Drizzle, Snow And Rain Showers In The Afternoon. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Sun Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Mon...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Light Freezing Spray In The Morning.|
|Mon Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas Around 4 Ft.|
|Tue...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Wed...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Caribou ME
914pm EST Fri Jan 17 2020
Arctic high pressure will build into the area overnight and crest over the region on Saturday. Low pressure will approach Saturday night from the Great Lakes region and track across the area Sunday. An upper trough will remain over the area Monday into Tuesday with high pressure building in for Wednesday.
Near Term - Through Saturday
9:14 pm update: The main weather story overnight will be the cold weather and low wind chills. As of 9 pm, just about all locations north of Millinocket are below zero, with single digits Downeast. The wind has been diminishing this evening, and that trend will slowly continue into the overnight; but there is still just enough wind for some low wind chills. No changes are planned to the wind chill advisories. There is a clear sky across the FA as of 9 pm, but there are pesky low clouds that developed off the Saint Lawrence and have moved into Madawaska County, NB and are very close to the northeast Aroostook County border. The clouds could briefly move into the eastern Saint John Valley, but confidence remains low. Made a few tweaks, mainly to the temperatures to lower them some in the northwest valleys where the wind may try to decouple toward morning, and if it does lows will easily drop into the -20s. Otherwise, just a few very minor tweaks based on the latest observations.
Previous discussion: Gradient holding this afternoon but showing signs of weakening per the last 3 hr trends. The blowing snow issue should be alleviated by the evening w/the winds letting up. Wind chill Advisory for northern areas will be extending to about 09Z(4 AM) Saturday due to very cold temps and winds expected to hang up 6-10 mph. Winds are expected to drop off as high pressure to the west start to press into the region just before daybreak. RAP/NAM soundings show inversion trying to set up. Very cold airmass in place and w/winds dropping off and clear skies, some very cold temperatures by 7 AM. As a matter of fact, all sites across the CWA will see temps below 0F by 7 AM. Some sites across the n and w could be seeing reading at or below -25F.
Saturday will be another cold day w/daytime temps about 5 to 10 degree warmer than they were today. Light winds will make for a more tolerable day to be outdoors. Temps will be still be below normal for mid January. Clouds will be on this increase during the afternoon as low pressure approaches from the Great Lakes region.
Short Term - Saturday Night Through Sunday Night
A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Saturday night into Sunday afternoon across Interior Downeast into the Upper Penobscot Valley and Bangor Region where 5 to 9 inches is possible. Elsewhere, a widespread snowfall is expected of 4 to 7 inches.
Low pressure will track from the eastern Great Lakes across central New England Saturday night, with development of a coastal low along the east coast. The second low will undergo intensification as it tracks into the Gulf of Maine towards Nova Scotia w/ left front quad of 500mb jet. This will mainly affect how far north rain/snow mixes in, which for now is confined to the immediate coast Sunday morning. Interior Downeast will be under an area of snow enhanced by the strengthening low. As the parent low begins to track across central New England, a trough of warm air aloft extends back through the forecast area. This prolongs moderate snow rates as parent low moves across central New England Sunday afternoon.
Some additional fgen banding may result Sunday afternoon on the backside as cold air begins to flush in at 700mb against retreating warm air. At this time, it is most apparent only on higher res NAM and Canadian guidance at a local scale from the Central Highlands towards Calais/Eastport. With a nudge to the south in track, cloud ice looks to linger, keeping freezing rain/drizzle to a minimum or nil along the coast.
All areas will taper to snow showers Sunday evening and overnight, with dry but cold conditions expected for Monday.
Long Term - Monday Through Friday
Temperatures will remain on the cold side for the long term, but dry weather is expected. Two nigheights of below zero lows are possible Monday night and Tuesday night as strong high pressure crashes into the eastern Great Lakes. Tuesday night stands best chance of being the colder of the two as the center of high pressure nears and skies have greater chance to clear out. Winds will also be mostly calm, allowing for good radiational cooling. Temperatures begin to rebound toward mid to end of the week, as highs trend into the mid to upper 20s across the forecast area with lows in the teens.
Near Term: The gales were transitioned to small craft advisories a short time ago, and have issued the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) until 08Z on the intra-coastal waters and until 12Z on the coastal waters. A few gusts to 35 knots are still possible until around midnight on the coastal zone from Eastport to Schoodic Point, but the wind will continue to trend down during the next couple of hours.
Short Term: A SCA (Small Craft Advisory) will likely be needed Saturday night as S winds increase above 25 kt. Winds will decrease Sunday morning amid a wind shift to the NW through Sunday afternoon with winds again approaching SCA (Small Craft Advisory) Sunday night. Freezing spray will be possible during Sunday night and Monday morning as well. Wave heigheights will remain fairly steady across the coastal waters 3 to 5 feet, slackening with winds Tuesday night into Wednesday.
The Caribou, Maine ASOS observation is not making it out due to a communications issue. We hope to have the issue resolved in the near future.
NOAA Caribou ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
ME...Wind Chill Advisory until 4am EST Saturday for MEZ001>006-010. Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for MEZ011-015>017-031-032.
Small Craft Advisory until 3am EST Saturday for ANZ052. Freezing Spray Advisory until 9am EST Saturday for ANZ050>052. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST Saturday for ANZ050-051.