Schoodic Point ME to Stonington ME Marine Forecast
|Today...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Patchy Drizzle This Morning. Areas Of Fog Early This Morning, Then Patchy Fog Late This Morning. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less, Increasing To 1 To 3 Nm Late This Morning.|
|Tonight...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Sat...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Sat Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
|Sun...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sun Night...Sw Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Mon...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Se 25 To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Building To 8 To 13 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Afternoon. Rain Through The Night. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Tue...Se Winds 25 To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon, Then Becoming S 15 To 20 Kt In The Evening, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 12 To 15 Ft, Building To 13 To 16 Ft In The Afternoon And Evening, Then Subsiding To 11 To 14 Ft After Midnight. Rain, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm In The Morning, Then 1 To 3 Nm After Midnight.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Caribou ME
642am EST Fri Nov 27 2020
Low pressure will exit across the Maritimes today. A cold front will cross the region Saturday. High pressure will cross the region Sunday. Low pressure will begin to approach from the southwest later Monday then track well west of the region Tuesday.
Near Term - Through Tonight
630am Update: No sig changes this update, with visibilities going up and down in fog across Northern areas, but a little more persistently below at or below a half mile over Downeast areas. We issued an SPS for locally dense fog across the FA til 9am. Otherwise, latest surface obs have shown that temps have fallen a little below the forecast lows over ptns of the FA, this despite abundant low cldnss and fog. The 12z UA sounding indicates a remnant frontal invsn over Ern ptns of the FA immediately above the sfc, but with weak or zero pressure gradient over the Region. and perhaps some thinness with mid/upper cld layers abv, there may actually be a hint of radiational cooling at the surface spcly if the low clouds and fog is also relatively shallow. Fcst hourly temps/dewpoints were updated from latest avbl surface obs to afternoon forecast hi temps.
Prev Disc: A weak cold front this morning will only slowly improve conditions with patchy to areas of fog and patchy light -dz lifting by late morn. The best improvement will be over Downeast areas where weak wrly downsloping surface winds will result in breaks in cld cvr there. Across the N, low cldnss will hold tough. Hi temps across the N will be milder this afternoon. but will be close to what they were ystdy across Downeast areas, which was quite mild.
Tonight, a weak s/wv trough from Cntrl Ont/Wrn QB will keep cldnss over spcly the N hlf of the FA, with a chance of isolated sn showers late as surface temps fall close to frzg.
Short Term - Saturday Through Sunday Night
An upper level trough will move across the region Saturday, leading to a chance of rain and snow showers mainly across northern Maine. Highs will remain above normal in the upper 30s to 40s with partly to mostly cloudy skies. The trough will exit to the east Saturday night, leading to quickly decreasing shower activity and partly to mostly clear skies. Temperatures will drop below freezing, causing snowmelt across northern Maine to refreeze. An upper level ridge will build across the area Sunday into Sunday, with surface ridging passing well to the southeast of the Gulf of Maine. The best chance of seeing plenty of sun will be across Downeast Maine, while northern Maine will see more diurnally forced stratocumulus and at least partly cloudy skies. Highs will be similar to Saturday topping out in the upper 30s to 40s.
Long Term - Monday Through Thursday
The main story in the long term will be a potent storm system late Monday into Tuesday that will bring gusty winds and heavy rainfall to the area. An upper level low currently over the Desert Southwest will gradually eject eastward by the beginning of next week, interacting with a digging upper level trough over the Ohio River Valley. A deep surface low will develop along the spine of the Appalachians with a lengthy atmospheric river extending all the way from the western Caribbean Sea to Gulf of Maine by about 6z Tuesday. Northward moisture transport will be aided by a strong low level jet, peaking in strength Monday night. Wind headlines may be needed during this period, with the highest confidence along the coast. A general 1 to 3 inches of rain is possible across the area, with the heaviest amounts across Downeast Maine. Temperatures will rise overnight Monday night and continue to rise Tuesday, topping out in the 50s. High temperatures were raised slightly with this update and all indications are that the December 1st daily record high of 48 in Caribou will likely be broken.
A weakening cold front or occluded front will move through the area Tuesday night, bringing in drier air and decreasing precipitation coverage and intensity. Wednesday will be cooler but still unseasonably mild with a chance of showers as the upper level low moves over or very near the forecast area. Wednesday night and beyond uncertainty increases as a chaotic pattern takes hold in the absence of a strong polar jet to maintain atmospheric order. Multiple cut-off lows are possible across the U.S. during this period, owing to poor predictability. However, larger scale signals and ensembles yield high confidence for above normal temperatures and no Arctic air outbreaks through the end of the week.
Near Term: SCA (Small Craft Advisory) seas will cont over our outer MZ waters til late afternoon. then subside below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds with all our waters then below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thru tngt. Kept close to blended wv guidance for fcst wv heights with Gerling Hanson plots showing mostly one spectral group of wvs durg this ptn of the forecast with about an 8sec pd propagating NNW.
Short Term: Winds may gust to near small craft advisory thresholds briefly over the outer waters Saturday evening, otherwise conditions below advisory levels are expected through the weekend. Gales are possible Monday night into Tuesday.
NOAA Caribou ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EST this afternoon for ANZ050- 051.