Schoodic Point ME to Stonington ME Marine Forecast
|Overnight...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming Ne Late. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Rain Late This Evening, Then Showers Likely Late. Patchy Fog. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Wed...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Scattered Showers In The Morning. Patchy Fog In The Morning With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Wed Night...W Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Patchy Fog After Midnight With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Thu...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Afternoon.|
|Thu Night...S Winds Around 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Evening. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Rain Likely. Patchy Fog After Midnight With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Fri...Sw Winds Around 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Patchy Fog In The Morning. Rain Likely In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm In The Morning.|
|Fri Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sat...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sun...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers Through The Night.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1114pm EDT Tuesday July 27 2021
A cold front will slowly move off the coast overnight. High pressure will cross the region Wednesday, then exit across the Maritimes Thursday. Low pressure will cross the region Thursday night through Friday, then exit across the Maritimes Saturday. A cold front will cross the area Sunday.
Near Term - Through Wednesday
11 PMAn area of rain is moving east along the coast and raised probability of precipitation to categorical where rain is occuring. Also adjusted temps a bit lower in the far NW and a bit warmer Downeast where clouds are preventing much cooling.
Previous discussion: Low pressure crossing lower New England this evening will track into the Gulf of Maine tonight, spreading rain showers along the Downeast coast.
Jet max aloft visible in WV sat has spent the day embedding in upper longwave pattern over Quebec. This will track across S ME this evening. The interaction w/ exiting cold front will produce good lift to take advantage of moisture in the area amid strong SW 850-300mb flow. The result will be rain showers approaching the Maine coast overnight. Quantitative Precipitation Forecast output from some high res models paint mod rainfall along the coastal islands, albeit briefly. Overall low track is brisk, and offshore. This leads the bulk of rainfall over the coastal waters. Noting the avail lift and jet magnitude as the low interacts with the slow front, have increased Quantitative Precipitation Forecast a bit along the immediate coast. Going against higher Quantitative Precipitation Forecast or heavy rain is a shallow warm cloud layer and the lack of CAPE, elevated or otherwise.
Rain will taper towards daybreak, with the inland-most trace of precipitation expected no further north than a Dover/Foxcroft to Danforth line. To the north, clearing will take place this evening with good rad cooling conditions expected. Some of the northeastern communities may see residual wind moderate temps a bit. Thus, have trended temps below some guidance into the lower to mid 40s.
Longwave trough takes over Wednesday with surface high pressure moving in. This will lead to a pleasant late July day. Mostly sunny skies are expected with highs around 70 in the north and mid 70s Downeast.
Short Term - Wednesday Night Through Friday
Some clearing expected Wednesday night into midday Thursday as weak high pressure ridges across the region. A frontal boundary will slowly move into the state w/a series of weak low pressure systems moving up along the slow moving front. The 12Z GFS is more aggressive w/bringing showers or perhaps a tstm into the Central Highlands and Downeast by Thursday afternoon w/the threat for some tstms. The Canadian guidance is somewhat similar, but later in the timing. It too points to the potential for elevated convection Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. The 12Z NAM and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) are slower w/the NAM keeping any measurable rainfall at bay until Thursday night. The 12Z ECMWF has moved things up sooner than its previous run w/rain moving into Downeast by late in the day on Thursday. Therefore, used a blend of the GFS and ECMWF to show placement of the precipitation and timing. Looking at the sounding profiles from the GFS, convective potential is there, but not overly impressive. An item to note that is favorable for the available instability is that there does appear to be some light warming above the blyr to 925 mbs w/some slight cooling aloft which could aid in some elevated instability. Plus, there is a llevel jet noted at 850 mbs(30_ kts) that will aid in the necessary forcing. Attm, stayed w/the midnight crews's idea of including a mention of tstms into early Friday morning. Will stay w/rain as the weather element. Will also throw in the mention of fog as well given the sse flow setting up Thursday night into Friday morning.
The atmosphere stabilizes early Friday w/the steadier rain moving out w/the low pressure pulling out to the ene. the Associated cold front will slide in across the region during afternoon. The northern 1/2 of the CWA will become stable as the column cools down into the blyr. Not a warm day for Friday as temps are expected to be well below normal. However, things could be much different across the Downeast region as some warming in the llevels w/slight cooling could be the setup for some afternoon convection as the front slides across the region. Upper level flow appears to align the front a bit, which would slow the forward progress of the front and could lead to some training storms along w/heavy rainfall potential. Therefore, tstms were kept in the forecast for central and downeast areas.
Long Term - Friday Night Through Tuesday
Unsettled pattern for this term w/below normal daytime temps. After some partial clearing Friday night and some fog, Saturday will start out dry, but a secondary front w/the upper trough is expected to swing across the region during the afternoon w/the threat for showers and possible tstms across the northern and western areas. Further south, drier and cool for the last day of July. The GFS is much drier as it shows some weak surface ridging from high pressure to the south. The ECMWF and NBM however, show some activity w/the upper trough. Llevels are forecast to warm w/the cooling aloft to allow for instability and the threat for tstms. Drying Saturday night into Sunday, but the next frontal system is slated to bring more showers and perhaps tstms to the region. The GFS winds up the rainfall potential Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. The ECMWF and NBM are similar but later in timing, but also agree on this potential and actually keep the threat for showers into Monday where as the GFS and some of the individual ensemble members keep it dry. Decided to keep the mention of showers given the long wave trough over the NERN US. As a matter of fact, decided to keep the mention of showers going into Tuesday as well.
Near Term: Wind and seas will be below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) tonight. Some fog will likely limit visibilities tonight with humid air over the waters. Showers are likely tonight with drier air bringing an improvement of visibilities early Wednesday. Winds shift SW on the outer waters Wednesday afternoon.
Short Term: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory levels right through the weekend.
Wednesday night into Thu...Showers and fog. SW winds 5-10 kt w/seas 2-3 ft Wednesday night w/winds increasing to 10-15 kt on Thu.
Thu night into Fri...SW wind around 10 kt becoming W 10-15 kt late in the day on Fri. Showers and possible tstms w/fog Thu night. Seas 2-3 ft.
Fri night into Sat...WNW winds 10-15 kt. Seas 2-3 ft.
NOAA Caribou ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories