Schoodic Point ME to Stonington ME Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...E Winds Around 5 Kt, Increasing To 5 To 10 Kt Late. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Thu...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Increasing To 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Building To 6 To 9 Ft In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Rain In The Morning, Then Rain In The Afternoon. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Thu Night...Se Winds 30 To 35 Kt, Becoming Sw 30 To 35 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 45 Kt. Seas 9 To 13 Ft. Rain. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Fri...W Winds 25 To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 45 Kt. Seas 9 To 12 Ft, Subsiding To 7 To 10 Ft In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Fri Night...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening.|
|Sat...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Sat Night...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Sun...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming S. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Rain After Midnight.|
|Mon...Se Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon And Evening, Then Becoming S 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Building To 8 To 11 Ft. Rain. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm In The Afternoon And Evening.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Caribou ME
907pm EDT Wednesday April 8 2020
Weak high pressure will build across the region overnight. Intensifying low pressure will cross the region Thursday then exit across the Maritimes Friday through Saturday. High pressure will cross the region Sunday. Low pressure will lift across the region Monday.
Near Term - Through Thursday
9:07 pm update: The forecast remains on track. No changes to the forecast as it relates to the upcoming storm. There remain model differences as to whether the intense storm hugs the coast or tracks 50 miles or so inland. The eventual outcome will have big implications for the forecast, especially Downeast as it relates to the rain/snow line, but also the coastal flood potential. Made some minor adjustments to the hourly forecast elements for the remainder of the night, but adjustments were mostly minor.
Previous discussion: High pressure centered across northern Quebec province will ridge south across the forecast area tonight. Expect mostly clear skies early tonight, with clouds then increasing from the west late. Low pressure approaches from the west Thursday, with a secondary low intensifying in the western Gulf of Maine late. Precipitation will expand east across the forecast area Thursday. Precipitation should begin in the form of snow or a snow/rain mix early Thursday, then trend toward rain through mid afternoon with a warming boundary layer. Precipitation will then begin to transition back towards snow late afternoon, particularly across northern and northwestern areas. Precipitation intensities will increase through the afternoon. Snow accumulations through late Thursday afternoon are generally expected to range from 1 to 3 inches across northern areas, with greater accumulations across west-central portions of the forecast area. Low temperatures tonight will generally range through the teens north, to the mid to upper 20s interior Downeast with upper 20s to around 30 along the Downeast coast. High temperatures Thursday will range from the mid to upper 30s north, to the upper 30s to around 40 Downeast.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Strong Nor'easter peaks in intensity Thursday evening as it tracks NE roughly along the Maine coast. Low is quite strong for April. In fact, if it tracks a bit further north than expected, could set an April pressure record for Bangor (record is 973.9 mb). About 50 miles of uncertainty in the low track, which is very important for precipitation type in Interior Downeast. This is where we have the lowest confidence in snow amounts, from Bangor to Calais. A further south track would favor more snow, and a further north track would favor less snow. Went with a middle-of-the-road track for now. Operational GFS was a bit of a north outlier and didn't use. Looks like mostly rain immediate coast, and all snow from Dover-Foxcroft and Topsfield north. Doesn't look like any threat of freezing rain or sleet. Enough confidence from Dover-Foxcroft and Topsfield north that converted watches to winter storm warnings. Expect intense snow banding north of the low Thursday evening with > 2 inch per hour rates possible, then transitioning to a steadier snow late Thursday night into Friday morning. A good amount of wind as well with blowing snow. Hoisted a winter weather advisory from Bangor to Calais with 3 to 5 inches, but as mentioned before, a lot of uncertainty in these amounts. Went with close to 25th percentile of temperatures for the all-important Thursday evening period due to dynamic cooling from heavy precipitation expected to keep temps on the cool side of guidance. Only a little snow on the immediate coast with temperatures just a touch too warm, but need to watch closely as a more southern low track could bring heavier snow a bit further south to the coast. Wind on the coast just ahead of the low is a concern Thursday evening. Doesn't quite look like enough for a high wind warning, so issuing a wind advisory for the coast. Other concern is coastal flooding. See coastal flooding section below for more.
Snow gradually eases through the day Friday, mainly persisting in the north, as the low exits into the Gulf of Saint Lawrence. Generally dry Friday night and Saturday, though pressure gradient persists behind the departing system with a W/NW breeze persisting. Seasonably cool airmass on the back side of the system Friday night and Saturday and expect limited melting of the new snow. Perhaps just enough instability in the far north Saturday for a few snow showers and added slight chance Probability of Precipitation to cover this.
Long Term - Saturday Night Through Wednesday
Weak high pressure Sunday with somewhat warmer temperatures. High pressure quickly departs Monday with another system late Monday/Monday night. This looks like a fairly warm system with parent low tracking well north of the area. Also looks like a potentially quite rainy system. Models are in reasonable agreement, but differ a bit on rain totals and the amount of warm air. If the warmer/wetter solution transpires, concern of some flooding especially over the northern half of the area where rivers will already be running quite high. Turning cooler toward midweek with perhaps some showers, but model agreement really goes down beyond Tuesday.
Near Term: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels overnight. Gale conditions then develop Thursday afternoon. A Gale Warning has been issued starting Thursday afternoon. Visibilities will be reduced in developing rain Thursday.
Short Term: Looking for high end gales Thursday night into Friday morning with seas to 12 feet due to a strong Nor'easter tracking over the waters Thursday evening. Small craft conditions persist Friday afternoon into Saturday behind the departing low pressure. A brief break Sunday before small craft or possible gales Monday night.
Flooding as a result of ice jams remains in place along the North Caribou/Grimes road in Fort Fairfield and on Route 164 near Rum Rapids between Washburn and Presque Isle as of early Wednesday evening. Ice continues to move on the northern rivers including the Allagash, St. John, Fish River and Aroostook River and may result in other ice jams tonight into Thursday. Did receive an update that the ice was moving around Saint Francis and Saint John with no flooding issues as of around sunset this evening. The Mattawamkeag remains just below flood stage and appears to have crested. No known flooding issues are currently observed Downeast.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
Coastal flooding a significant concern, especially with the high tide just after midnight Thursday night, and especially for coastal Washington. This is due to a combination of very high tides and a storm surge up to 2 feet. Looks like more of a concern for Washington than Hancock because surge appears to peak a few hours before high tide for Hancock but peaks closer to high tide further east toward Eastport as the surface low pressure tracks east along the coast. This has the potential to be quite a significant event especially for eastern portions of the Washington County coast.
NOAA Caribou ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
ME...Winter Storm Warning from 2pm Thursday to 6pm EDT Friday for MEZ001>006-010-011-031-032. Winter Weather Advisory from 8pm Thursday to 9am EDT Friday for MEZ015>017. Wind Advisory from 6pm Thursday to 9am EDT Friday for MEZ029- 030. Coastal Flood Watch from Thursday evening through late Thursday night for MEZ030.
Gale Warning from 4pm Thursday to 2pm EDT Friday for ANZ050>052.