Intracoastal City to Cameron, LA Marine Forecast
|Tonight...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening.|
|Wednesday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Wednesday Night...South Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Thursday...South Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Friday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Friday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Saturday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Saturday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Sunday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Chance Of Showers In The Morning. Chance Of Thunderstorms Through The Day. Showers Likely In The Afternoon.|
|Sunday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
| Synopsis for Lower Atchafalaya River LA to High Island TX out 60 NM including Sabine and Calcasieu Lakes and Vermilion Bay: GMZ400|
301 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021
Onshore flow will resume this evening and persist for the duration of the forecast period. No caution or advisory flags are anticipated at this time.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
326pm CDT Tuesday Jun 22 2021
Latest UA analysis and satellite imagery shows an upper ridge centered roughly over northern Mexico and southern NM upstream of a deep trough that extends from Hudson Bay southward to the NE Gulf of Mexico. Surface analysis shows a weak and somewhat diffuse front across the southern zones. Also evident on satellite imagery is deep moisture pooled from the base of the trough aloft, westward across the NW Gulf (and south of the frontal boundary) into northern Mexico, while drier air is spreading across the northern 1/2 to 2/3rds of the CWA.
Considerable low level moisture lingers behind the front however, and this is producing some sctd to bkn cloud cover across the area per recent vsbl satellite images. In addition, KLCH radar shows sctd showers and a few tstms developing along and south of Highways 12 and 190 where leftover boundaries from earlier convection are interacting with the low level moisture and daytime heating.
Short Term - Tonight Through Thursday Night
Aftn showers and tstms are expected to dissipate by sunset. Cloud cover is also expected to decrease as drier air continues to filter into the area. Winds are expected to become light overnight and, combined with wet ground, will contribute to the potential for some patchy fog or low clouds by late tonight/early Wednesday morning. One of the nice aspects of a June front, at least for locations from the Lakes region into cntl LA, will be low temperatures falling to near 70 degrees tonight. Meanwhile, with the weak front waffling over the southern half of the area, low temps will likely only reach the middle 70s along I-10 with upper 70s further south. And with dewpoints also in the middle 70s, conditions will still be muggy.
What's left of the frontal boundary will lift back to the north on Wednesday, ushering middle and upper 70 dewpoints back across the region on southerly winds. In the meantime, the ridge to the west of the area will begin building east across TX. This will not fully suppress daytime convection however, since the area will be on the eastern periphery of the ridge and prone to any weak shortwave energy that could translate through that side of the ridge (a scenario suggested in the global models). The end result will be sctd showers and storms developing in response to the seabreeze, with a return to hot and rather humid conditions as high temperatures reach the lower 90s.
Ridging aloft will prevail into Thursday, building a little further east. This could lead to a slight uptick in afternoon highs, with temperatures forecast to reach the middle 90s across much of the area. With dewpoints forecast to stay in the 70s through the day, max apparent temperatures are expected to climb to between 100 and 106 degrees. Rain chances will be slightly lower on Thursday with the best potential across the Atchafalaya Basin.
Long Term - Friday Through Tuesday
At the start of the period, an upper level ridge will be stretched from the East Pac across northern old Mexico and into the forecast area. This will help limited diurnal convection, with a better chance along the lower Atchafalaya Basin and less of a chance over southeast Texas. With the lower rain chances over southeast Texas, afternoon heat index values will be in the lower 100s.
On Saturday, the upper level ridge will begin to retreat to the west, with an inverted trough feature moving across the Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, there may be a slight increase in pops, with overall convection diurnally driven and mainly in the afternoon.
Late in the weekend into early next week, a very similar pattern for summer so far will take shape, with an upper level trough dropping down from the plain around a strong western US ridge, and approach and move into the region. At this time, moisture from the inverted trough feature in the Gulf will merge with the upper level trough. This will make for abundant Gulf moisture with little inhibition, and the result high rain chances from Sunday through Tuesday.
Onshore flow is expected to resume this evening south of a weak frontal boundary across SW LA/SE TX. Light to modt southerly winds are expected to prevail through the period. Seas will remain generally low, less than 5 feet. Shower and tstm chances will remain generally low the next few days, then increase through the weekend as abundant tropical moisture interacts with a weak disturbance aloft.
NOAA Lake Charles LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
LA...None. TX...None. GM...None.