Cameron, LA to High Island, TX Marine Forecast
|Today...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Tonight...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet.|
|Thursday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Thursday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet.|
|Friday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet.|
|Friday Night...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet.|
|Saturday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet.|
|Saturday Night...Southeast Winds Around 5 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Sunday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Sunday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet.|
| Synopsis for Lower Atchafalaya River LA to High Island TX out 60 NM including Sabine and Calcasieu Lakes and Vermilion Bay: GMZ400|
358 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020
A light east to southeast flow will continue through Friday as high pres remains centered over the southeast US. A weak front will slide south into the area Friday and stall over the coastal waters by Saturday morning, providing a brief period of offshore flow. Onshore winds will resume by Sunday, with another cold front forecast to move into the area early next week.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
722am CDT Wednesday Oct 21 2020
For the 10/21/20 1200 UTC TAF package.
SYNOPSIS... Latest UA analysis and satellite imagery shows a broad cyclonic pattern over the CONUS, with more progressive stronger mid level flow noted across the cntl/northern plains. Acrs the southern CONUS, multiple disturbances are seen over southern CA, across TX and into the SE.
At the sfc, high pressure remains centered over the mid-Atlantic, ridging southwestward into TX. A quasi stationary front sprawls acrs the cntl CONUS from the Ohio and mid MS Valleys into OK and the TX Panhandle. This was resulting in E to SE winds providing a steady onshore flow of low level gulf moisture, with warm and muggy conditions continuing. Patchy fog has again developed across the area with some of the lowest visibilities noted across SE TX at this time.
A steady easterly flow today will effectively maintain the unseasonably warm and humid conditions across the area, with afternoon highs into the middle 80s. Generally dry conditions can be expected today in absence of any defined surface feature or upper level support.
Little change is expected overnight into Thursday, as abundant low level moisture keeps overnight temps well above normal with lows only falling into the upper 60s or around 70. Patchy fog will again be possible across the area as well. During the day Thursday, rain chances are expected to increase slightly, especially over eastern portions of the area, as deeper moisture spreads northward from the eastern Gulf and interacts with weak shortwave energy aloft.
By Friday, a northern stream shortwave sliding east across the N cntl plains will push a weak cold front southeastward toward the area. Slt to low chance Probability of Precipitation will again be possible Friday afternoon. mainly over the eastern zones, as the front encounters the higher moisture in place. The front will slip through the area Friday night into Saturday morning, gradually stalling as it reaches the coastal waters. Weak high pressure will bring slightly drier air into the region, with dry weather expected through the weekend. Any cooldown behind the front will be modest at best, as temperatures are expected to remain above normal with high and low temps only a degree or two lower than what they've been through this past week.
The drier conditions will be shortlived as surface high pressure quickly transits east, and southeasterly winds usher warm and moist gulf air back over the region on Sunday. A shortwave digging over the N Rockies will usher a stronger cold front toward the region Monday. Flow aloft is forecast to split early in the week, with the more progressive northern stream shifting the shortwave east, while the southern end of the trough becomes cutoff over the Desert SW.
Discrepancies in the evolution of this cutoff low produce varying solutions regarding frontal timing early next week, with the GFS and Canadian moving the upper low east across the southern plains through Wednesday, while the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) slowly meanders the low over the Four Corners region. The result is a wetter pattern expected if the GFS/Canadian scenarios play out, with the potential for svr weather by midweek, while the ECMWF solution is drier, holding off any frontal passage until late in the week. NBM solution favors some daily low Probability of Precipitation beginning Monday, with a slight but not sharp cooldown by Wednesday.
Elevated easterly winds and seas near 6 feet will maintain exercise caution conditions over the outer coastal waters today between Intracoastal City and the lower Atchafalaya River. Otherwise, a generally light to moderate east to southeast flow will continue through Friday as high pressure remains centered over the southeast US. A weak front will slide south into the area Friday and stall over the coastal waters by Saturday morning, providing a brief period of offshore flow. Onshore winds will resume by Sunday, with another cold front forecast to move into the area early next week.
NOAA Lake Charles LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution through this evening for GMZ475.